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35752. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System
- Author:
- Kawa Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
35753. Unprecedented Pressures, Uncharted Course for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood
- Author:
- Nathan Brown and Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest opposition movement and one of its oldest, is squeezed between an unprecedented crackdown from the security state and a young generation pushing for more assertive action against the regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. As a movement that has long espoused evolutionary change morphs into one that advocates revolutionary change—and struggles with whether that means adopting a strategy of violence against the state—the implications for Egypt and the entire region are massive.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt
35754. Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Yangon/Brussels: After more than six decades of internal armed conflict, the next four weeks could be decisive for Myanmar’s peace process. The process, which was launched in August 2011, enjoyed significant initial success, as bilateral ceasefires were agreed with more than a dozen ethnic armed groups. But signing a nationwide ceasefire and proceeding to the political dialogue phase has been much more difficult. Four years on, with campaigning for the November elections already underway, a deal remains elusive. It is unclear whether a breakthrough can be achieved before the elections. Outside pressure will not be productive, but the progress to date needs to be locked in, and public international commitments to support the integrity of the process and stand with the groups that sign can now be of critical importance.
35755. Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Yangon/Brussels: After more than six decades of internal armed conflict, the next four weeks could be decisive for Myanmar’s peace process. The process, which was launched in August 2011, enjoyed significant initial success, as bilateral ceasefires were agreed with more than a dozen ethnic armed groups. But signing a nationwide ceasefire and proceeding to the political dialogue phase has been much more difficult. Four years on, with campaigning for the November elections already underway, a deal remains elusive. It is unclear whether a breakthrough can be achieved before the elections. Outside pressure will not be productive, but the progress to date needs to be locked in, and public international commitments to support the integrity of the process and stand with the groups that sign can now be of critical importance.
35756. Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China
- Author:
- Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power. This Council Special Report recommends placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Hegemony
35757. Sector-Specific Decision Failures in Business and Government, and Potential Solutions
- Author:
- Nicolas Boulgaris
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Both the public and the corporate sector will inevitably take poor decisions from time to time. Mostly, this will be explained by already well-researched cognitive predispositions. Anchoring, overconfidence and confirmation biases come to mind among many others. However, having worked for seventeen years in the private sector with an academic background in international relations, I came to realise that there are also explanations for decision-making missteps that originate directly from the specific particularities of government and business.1 As an “Executive in Residence” at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, I recently had the opportunity to exchange my personal experience in the asset management industry with the practice of senior politicians, diplomats and military officials. This short paper is a summary of my reflections on some sector- specific roots of decision-making failures of the private and public areas and an attempt to draw thought-provoking conclusions on what both entities can learn, often from each other.
- Topic:
- Privatization and Governance
35758. Asian Conflicts Report: The Geopolitics of Extremism: ISIS in Asia
- Author:
- Carl Ungerer and Katy Dr. Oh Hassig
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Asia and Europe share a border, but not much else. Although the Mongols invaded Eastern Europe, and Marco Polo made it to China, a common assumption among policy makers and academics alike has been that the security challenges and perspectives between these contiguous continents have had little in common, and less to learn from each other. Past efforts to build academic and policy bridges have been nascent at best. But today’s threats to global and regional security have no problem crossing international borders. From the rise of violent extremism to the threat of pandemic diseases and cyber criminals, solutions to security problems will overwhelm any national, or indeed regional, effort to ‘go it alone’. Increasingly, as transnational threats become simultaneously local and global, the challenge for countries across both Asia and Europe is to find points of common interest and opportunities for genuine security cooperation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Security, Violent Extremism, and ISIL
- Political Geography:
- Asia
35759. The Silk Road, Sand Castles and the U.S. China Rivalry
- Author:
- Alan Guidetti
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Rumours in American media and within policy circles in Washington hint at a shift in the making in US policy towards China. Accordingly, the carefully managed balance between cooperation and constraint, which was designed to accompany and guide the rise of China, might give way to a more confrontational US posture. The cause for a reorientation in US policy is ascribed to the assertiveness of Beijing in the territorial disputes and land reclamations in the China Seas. However, the growing US nervousness about China, as illustrated by blunt warnings to Beijing by Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, goes beyond the Chinese build-up of artificial islands, which fuels the current dispute. Washington recently opposed Chinese efforts to set up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a central pillar of the “New Silk Road” project that will advance the centrality of China within the Eurasian space and beyond. As competition rises between the two powers, sources of tension multiply, thereby increasing risks of conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Power Politics, and Hegemony
35760. EU home affairs diplomacy: why, what, where – and how
- Author:
- Hugo Brady and Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Home affairs matters such as border control, crime-fighting and counter-terrorism are all increasingly subject to international rule-setting and cooperation. The European Union is facing up to this challenge, under pressure of events but also thanks to a high degree of coordination between home affairs officials and diplomats. With its near abroad now host to mass movements of migrants, radical Islamist groups and transnational organised crime networks, the Union is investing in making the relationship between internal and external security processes more substantive. But enhanced coordination can only work if Europeans adopt the right geographical focus, toolkit and strategy. This Chaillot Paper explores the genesis of ‘home affairs diplomacy’ and how it has taken shape, and highlights the challenges as well as the opportunities that bringing together different policy communities (at both national and EU level) generates for a more confident and more ‘strategic’ European approach to an outside world that has become more connected and more complex than ever before.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Migration, International Security, European Union, and Counter-terrorism
35761. CSDP in action – What contribution to international security?
- Author:
- Thierry Trady
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This Chaillot Paper looks at CSDP operations and missions, and explores how they fit into the broader crisis management environment and multilateral efforts towards international peace. It highlights the inherent constraints facing CSDP and how these inevitably limit its overall impact or degree of success. The paper also examines the EU’s added value and the extent to which CSDP is moving forward at various levels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, and European Union
35762. Europe: The Current Situation and the Way Forward
- Author:
- Wolfgang Schäuble
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program features an address by Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's Federal Minister of Finance, titled Europe: The Current Situation and the Way Forward. The address will be followed by a panel discussion and question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
35763. Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China
- Author:
- Robert D. Blackwill, Henry A. Kissinger, and Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- "China represents and will remain the most significant competitor to the United States for decades to come. As such, the need for a more coherent U.S. response to increasing Chinese power is long overdue," write CFR Senior Fellow Robert D. Blackwill and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Associate Ashley J. Tellis in a new Council Special Report, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China. "Because the American effort to 'integrate' China into the liberal international order has now generated new threats to U.S. primacy in Asia—and could result in a consequential challenge to American power globally—Washington needs a new grand strategy toward China that centers on balancing the rise of Chinese power rather than continuing to assist its ascendancy." The authors argue that such a strategy is designed to limit the dangers that China's geoeconomic and military power pose to U.S. national interests in Asia and globally, even as the United States and its allies maintain diplomatic and economic interactions with China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
35764. Enhancing U.S. Support for Peace Operations in Africa
- Author:
- Paul D. Williams
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The number of UN peacekeepers is at a record high, with nearly 110,000 uniformed deployed "blue helmets" worldwide, most of them in Africa. But the status quo is "untenable," warns Paul D. Williams, author and associate professor of international affairs at George Washington University, in a new Council Special Report, Enhancing U.S. Support for Peace Operations in Africa. Unrealistic mandates, unsustainable supplies of personnel, hostile host governments, and mission creep have undermined peace operations, Williams writes. "Given the growing interest in fostering a stable and prosperous Africa, the United States should wield its political influence to address these challenges."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
35765. On Target? EU Sanctions as Security Policy Tools
- Author:
- Iana Dreyer and Jose Luengo-Cabrera
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This Report, the outcome of an EUISS Task Force on sanctions, offers valuable insight into a practice that is now part and parcel of the Union's ‘security’ policy toolbox. It aims to shed more light on an EU policy area that is still under-researched at a time when sanctions are becoming more important in terms of their number, scale and political salience.
- Topic:
- Security, Sanctions, and European Union
35766. Arctic Security Matters
- Author:
- Juha Jokela
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The Arctic region is currently undergoing major and rapid transformation, both environmentally and economically. This report, the outcome of a EUISS Task Force, examines how these changes carry significant political implications, and highlights the new security challenges that are emerging in the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Politics, and Biosecurity
- Political Geography:
- Arctic
35767. Women & Armed Conflicts and the issue of Sexual Violence
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This report derives from a colloquium on the theme of ‘Women & War’ organised jointly by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) which took place on 30 September 2014 in Brussels. The proceedings of this colloquium have been written by the speakers or by the Delegation of the ICRC in Brussels on the basis of audio recordings of the event.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, War, Peacekeeping, and Women
35768. A New Climate for Peace
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This independent report commissioned by members of the G7, identifies seven compound climate-fragility risks that pose serious threats to the stability of states and societies in the decades ahead. Based on an assessment of existing policies on climate change adaptation, development cooperation and humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding, the report recommends that the G7 take concrete action to tackle climate-fragility risks and increase the resilience of states and societies to them
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Resources, and Peacekeeping
35769. Pride and prejudice: maritime disputes in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Roman Pacheco, Eva Pejsova, and Elena Atanassova-Cornelis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This report explores the driving sources of tension in Northeast Asia’s three maritime disputes, focusing in particular on developments that have occurred since the late 2000s. At the same time, it examines the existing and emerging forms of maritime cooperation – in the form of various schemes for the joint development of resources in the region – so as to highlight the possible ways forward.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and Maritime Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Asia
35770. What Next for the IMF?
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After the Obama administration's four failed attempts to win congressional approval of the 2010 quota and governance reform for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it is time to recognize that implementation of the agreement may be indefinitely delayed. The international community must therefore prepare for the likelihood of a new world order in which the IMF augments its funding and reforms its governing structure without US participation. This Policy Brief examines four options for the IMF: First, wait for the US Congress to pass the necessary legislation. Second, complete a new, augmented IMF quota and governance package and again wait for the United States to give its formal approval. Third, bypass the US Congress and risk losing the US veto over a few important decisions on the structure of the IMF. Fourth, let the Fund adopt a reform and financing package within a structure that potentially excludes US participation and eliminates the US veto in the new entity.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, Governance, and Reform
35771. Service Sector Reform in China
- Author:
- Ryan Rutkowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Faced with slowing economic growth, Chinese policymakers now recognize that the service sector of the economy—transportation, communications, finance, and health care—could spur economic activity and employment. The catch is that China must reform these and other areas to accomplish this goal. Chinese leaders have outlined an ambitious agenda for reform, but myriad vested interests could slow or block their plans. This Policy Brief evaluates the steps taken so far and the difficulties that lie ahead in implementing them. If policymakers fail to reform and open up the service sector, they run the risk of seriously impairing China's growth prospects.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- China
35772. Japanese Investment in the United States: Superior Performance, Increasing Integration
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran and Lindsay Oldenski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan is reemerging as the most important source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States. In 2013 Japanese firms were the largest source of new inflows of FDI into the United States for the first time since 1992, injecting almost $45 billion of fresh investment into the US economy in that year alone. Moran and Oldenski show how Japanese investment in the United States differs from that of other countries along several dimensions. These differences not only make FDI by Japanese firms especially valuable but point to some important policy goals for attracting it. Although the automotive sector is the single largest industry for Japanese investment in the United States, the focus should not be on competing to attract the auto industry in particular nor should any active industrial policy of "picking winners" be pursued. Japanese investment is unique because of its research and development intensity, manifested across a number of industries in which Japanese multinationals invest other than automobiles. US policy should focus on reinforcing and expanding the factors that attract high-performing firms and high-value production stages to the United States, regardless of industry.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and United States
- Political Geography:
- Japan
35773. The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Conventional wisdom holds that the United States lags behind many other advanced countries in its spending on social, health, and welfare programs. In this Policy Brief, Jacob Kirkegaard argues that conventional wisdom is faulty, in that it overlooks the role of tax systems and private spending in delivering social programs in different societies. Taking the full effects of tax systems and spending by private and public sources into account, Kirkegaard finds that the true level of US social expenditures is fully comparable to European spending—and yet yields worse outcomes than in Europe. High aggregate social spending in the United States has a very low impact on overall income inequality and healthcare outcomes, for example. The Policy Brief also concludes that the United States relies excessively on tax subsidization to the detriment of fiscal sustainability, transparency, and redistributive fairness
- Topic:
- Governance, Health Care Policy, and Budget
35774. How Not to Regulate Insurance Markets: The Risks and Dangers of Solvency II
- Author:
- Avinash D. Persaud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Solvency II, which the European Parliament adopted in March 2014, codifies and harmonizes insurance regulations in Europe to reduce the risk of an insurer defaulting on its obligations and producing dangerous systemic side effects. The new directive tries to achieve these aims primarily by setting capital requirements for the assets of insurers and pension funds based on the annual volatility of the price of these assets. Persaud argues that these capital requirements will impose an asset allocation on life insurers and pension funds that does not serve the interests of consumers, the financial system, or the economy. The main problem with Solvency II is that the riskiness of the assets of a life insurer or pension fund with liabilities that will not materialize before 10 or sometimes 20 years is not well measured by the amount by which prices may fall during the next year. Solvency II fails to take account of the fact that institutions with different liabilities have different capacities for absorbing different risks and that it is the exploitation of these differences that creates systemic resilience. To correct this problem, Persaud offers an alternative approach that is more attuned to the risk that a pension fund or life insurer would fail to meet its obligations when they come due and less focused on the short-term volatility of asset prices.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Budget
35775. : From Rapid Recovery to Slowdown: Why Recent Economic Growth in Latin America Has Been Slow
- Author:
- Jose De Gregorio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Latin America's recent economic performance has been disappointing. After a very strong recovery from the Great Recession, growth has slowed considerably, and prospects for 2015 are dim. Among the seven largest economies in the region, output is expected to contract in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela, and Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are projected to grow by only about 3 percent. The decline was not caused by external factors but was mostly cyclical in nature and a result of low productivity. Although monetary and fiscal policies may still have a role in supporting demand in some instances, the main problem in the region is not a lack of demand but low productivity growth. Efforts must be made to foster productivity. Institutional weakness must be addressed and inequality reduced if sustainable high growth is to resume.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
35776. Quantity Theory of Money Redux? Will Inflation Be the Legacy of Quantitative Easing?
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Since the onset of the Federal Reserve's unconventional program of large scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), some economists and financial practitioners have feared that the consequent buildup of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a large expansion of the money supply, and that such an increase could cause a sharp rise in inflation. So far fears about induced inflation have not been validated. This Policy Brief examines the basis for the original concerns about inflation in terms of the classic quantity theory of money, which holds that inflation occurs when the money supply expands more rapidly than warranted by increases in real production. The Brief first reviews the US experience and shows that whereas rapid money growth might have been a plausible explanation of inflation in the 1960s through the early 1980s, subsequent data have not supported such an explanation. It then shows that the quantity theory of money has not really been put to the test after the Great Recession, because a sharp increase in banks' excess reserves and corresponding sharp decline in the "money multiplier" has meant that the rise in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not translated into increased money available to the public in the usual fashion. The most likely aftermath of quantitative easing remains one of benign price behavior. However, if nascent inflationary conditions materialize, the Federal Reserve will need to manage adroitly the large amounts of banks' excess reserves that have accumulated as a consequence of QE in order to limit inflationary pressures.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Federal Reserve
- Political Geography:
- United States
35777. Too Much Finance, or Statistical Illusion?
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For nearly three decades, the dominant view on the role of the financial sector in economic development has been that greater financial depth facilitates faster growth. However, the Great Recession has shaken confidence in that view because of the contributing role of high leverage and such financial innovations as collateralized subprime mortgage-backed assets and derivatives on them. Recent studies from the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements have argued that "too much finance" reduces growth. In an environment of new doubts about finance following the Great Recession, these studies finding that there can be too much of it seem to have struck a responsive chord. Cline warns that these findings should be viewed with considerable caution. He first shows that correlation without causation could similarly lead to the conclusion that too many doctors spoil growth, for example. He the demonstrates algebraically that if the variable of interest, be it financial depth, doctors, or any other good or service that rises along with per capita income, is incorporated in a quadratic form into a regression of growth on per capita income, there will be a necessary but spurious finding that above a certain point more of the good or service in question causes growth to decline. In some situations, finance can become excessive; the crises of Iceland and Ireland come to mind. But it is highly premature to adopt as a new stylized fact the recent studies' supposed thresholds beyond which more finance reduces growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis
35778. Gains from Harmonizing US and EU Auto Regulations under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
- Author:
- Caroline Freund and Sarah Oliver
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Regulatory standards protect consumers from defective products, but they impede trade when they differ across countries. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) seeks to reduce distortions in the automobile and other industries. Freund and Oliver evaluate the equivalence of automobile regulations in the United States and the European Union in terms of catastrophe avoidance and estimate the trade gains from harmonization. The UN 1958 Agreement on automobiles, which harmonizes regulations among signatories, is used to quantify the trade effect of regulatory convergence. The removal of regulatory differences in autos is estimated to increase trade by 20 percent or more. The effect on trade from harmonizing standards is only slightly smaller than the effect of EU accession on auto trade. The large economic gains from regulatory harmonization imply that TTIP has the potential to improve productivity while lowering prices and enhancing variety for consumers.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35779. Hungary under Orbán: Can Central Planning Revive Its Economy?
- Author:
- Simeon Djankov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Since the promising start of its transition from a centrally planned economy to capitalism, Hungary has failed to join Western Europe in terms of living standards and democracy. The dominant political figure in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, shares many features with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Both view the increasing role of the state as economically beneficial, and both consider the Western European economic model to be flawed. Hungary is headed towards centrally planned capitalism, demonstrated by the partial nationalization of the banking sector, the monopolization of some sectors of the economy, and the reversal of the pension reforms of 1998. Plagued by the most persistent budget deficit of any post-communist country, Hungary's greatest challenge is to establish a fiscally sustainable growth path.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, Politics, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Russia
- Political Geography:
- Hungary and Western Europe
35780. From Populist Destabilization to Reform and Possible Debt Relief in Greece
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Using his European Debt Simulation Model (EDSM), Cline examines whether and to what extent additional debt relief is needed in Greece under the new circumstances. Greece's debt burden is significantly lower than implied by the ratio of its gross debt to GDP, because of concessional interest rates on debt owed predominantly to the euro area official sector. The IMF's call for debt relief recognizes the lower interest burden but argues that the gross financing requirement is on track to exceed a sustainable range of 15 to 20 percent. But in the Fund's June Debt Sustainability Analysis that threshold would not be exceeded until after 2030. A sustainability diagnosis based on such a distant future date would seem at best illustrative rather than definitive. The euro area creditors might, nonetheless, be well advised to provide two types of interest relief: an earmarked portion of interest otherwise due to finance a public works employment program; and additional interest relief to compensate for budget shortfalls caused by growth below plan levels. The sovereign debt situation should be alleviated by carrying out the bank recapitalization directly from the European Stability Mechanism to the banks, rather than through the sovereign as the intermediary. The large increase in the ratio of gross debt to GDP imposed by bank recapitalization is mostly an optical illusion because there would be a corresponding rise in state assets, but this increase could, nonetheless, further erode perceptions of sustainability.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Budget
- Political Geography:
- Greece
35781. Korea and the TPP: The Inevitable Partnership
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Korea's decision to delay joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks was a tactical mistake. It is now left with primarily two options to participate: (1) ask to join the TPP, if possible between signature and entry into force, or (2) accede to the TPP after the agreement is ratified and goes into effect—either alone or as part of a group of countries seeking TPP membership. For Korea the burden of adjustment in the TPP—in terms of liberalization commitments—will probably be higher than had it joined as an original signatory. As a major trading nation, it stands to reap large gains from increased trade and investment with TPP countries and should opt to join the TPP as soon as the window for entry reopens.
- Topic:
- Economics and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Korea
35782. Reshoring by US Firms: What Do the Data Say?
- Author:
- Lindsay Oldenski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Reshoring—when firms shift manufacturing production back to the United States—has been getting a great deal of publicity lately. Oldenski examines the most recent data on the global operations of US firms and concludes that although some companies have reversed their previous offshoring decisions, there is no evidence of a widespread reshoring trend. But this should not be considered a defeat for US competitiveness. US multinationals continue to move operations offshore, but they also continue to grow stronger, producing more in their US operations and adding more to total US exports. The structure of US manufacturing has changed, but the ability to adapt to the changing nature of global business has been and will continue to be crucial to the continued growth of US manufacturing.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
35783. Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations
- Author:
- Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has rekindled the debate on the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the outset of the crisis the focus—particularly in the United States—was on whether fiscal stimulus (an expansion in the fiscal deficit) boosts economic growth. Since 2011 or so, with the depth of the crisis becoming more severe in some European countries and Greece in particular, the emphasis of the debate has shifted to whether fiscal adjustment (a reduction in the fiscal deficit) curtails economic growth. Public discourse has been heavily influenced by simple charts analyzing the correlations between measures of fiscal "austerity" and economic growth for small samples of countries over limited time periods. Mauro and Zilinsky analyze the correlations in the data starting from the simplest and gradually building up, in a step-by-step, transparent manner, to multivariate regressions based on various samples of countries for different periods. The results show that simple correlations are no longer significant when considering slightly longer sample periods and omitting outliers, like Greece, from the sample. In multivariate regressions using broader samples, a tightening of fiscal policy is significantly associated with lower economic growth only in some specifications and estimation samples. On the whole, the data offer partial support to the notion that fiscal choices and output growth are correlated.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35784. Do Public Development Banks Hurt Growth? Evidence from Brazil
- Author:
- Monica de Bolle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Brazil, adversely affecting real interest rates and productivity growth. Specifically, BNDES's large amounts of subsidized lending are responsible for substantial credit market segmentation, choking off monetary policy transmission. As a result, to maintain price stability the Central Bank of Brazil is forced to raise interest rates more than it might do otherwise in the absence of BNDES lending. Restoring Brazil's capacity to grow in the medium term requires a thorough rethinking of the role of BNDES. In particular, the bank's lending rates should be aligned with market prices, term and risk premia, while taking into account that, with an adequate transparency framework, public development banks can increase private sector participation instead of crowding it out.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
35785. Chinese Investment and CFIUS: Time for an Updated (and Revised) Perspective
- Author:
- Theodore Moran
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, China has complained about what it maintains has been a pattern of erratic and politicized treatment of Chinese investors when they attempt to acquire US companies. The Chinese want the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to be more open and transparent in its rulings and to not discriminate against Chinese firms. The United States is not likely to accede to these demands in any formal or legal manner. Moran proposes practical steps to address the concerns of Chinese investors without diluting CFIUS procedures. He provides a national security threat assessment filter, which allows Chinese investors—like investors of all nationalities—to determine when their proposed acquisitions might pose a genuine threat and when any such threat is simply not plausible. He also suggests that first-time Chinese investors seek expert counsel to overcome the secrecy surrounding CFIUS objections to figure out how to proceed with problematic acquisitions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
35786. Russia's Economy under Putin: From Crony Capitalism to State Capitalism
- Author:
- Simeon Djankov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the 15 years of President Vladimir Putin's rule, state control over economic activity in Russia has increased and is greater today than in the immediate postcommunist era. The concentration of political and economic power in Putin's hands has led to an increasingly assertive foreign policy, using energy as a diplomatic tool, while plentiful revenues from extractive industries have obfuscated the need for structural reforms at home. The West's 2014 sanctions on Russia have brought about economic stagnation, and with few visible means of growth, the economy is likely to continue to struggle. Watching Europe struggle with its own growth, in part because of deficiencies in its economic model, Russia will not be convinced to divert from state capitalism without evidence of a different, successful economic model. Changing course can only be pursued in the presence of political competition; the current political landscape does not allow for such competition to flourish
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
35787. After the freefall, what to expect from commodity prices
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- After the plunge in commodity prices in 2015, the outlook for raw materials remains highly uncertain amid slowing economic growth in China and looming interest rate rises in the US. In China—which gobbles up nearly one-half of the world’s consumption of aluminium, copper and coal—demand for base materials risks moderating further as the economy moves away from an investment-driven growth model. This will continue to have knock-on effects on the performance of commodity-exporting economies, weighing down on global consumption of raw materials. However, supply responses are beginning to emerge from commodity producers worldwide. Coupled with less favourable weather prospects, this will lead to some market tightening next year, allowing for some price stabilisation after four years of decline. This report provides a snapshot of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s current commodity price indexes, exploring the changing prices for industrial raw materials and food, feedstuffs & beverages. Each article provides analysis and forecasts across a number of key commodities, helping you to assess the fast-changing environment of commodity markets and influence key decision-making processes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
35788. Managing Change at the United Nations: Lessons from Recent Initiatives
- Author:
- Francesco Mancini
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As the United Nations celebrates is seventieth anniversary, the organization faces growing systemic stresses placed on it by emerging global challenges and rapidly shifting political and security dynamics. Such challenges have sparked a renewed interest in reform. The latest report by IPI examines past initiatives for change within the UN, as well as obstacles to reforms and their implementation. The report illustrates examples of successful processes of institutional transformation and highlights six waves of UN reform that have occurred since the end of the Cold War, including Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Change Plan of 2011.
- Topic:
- Security, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35789. Deploying Combined Teams: Lessons Learned from Operational Partnerships in UN Peacekeeping
- Author:
- Adam Smith, Paul D. Williams, and Donald C.F. Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Only fifteen United Nations’ member states provide more than 60 percent of the 104,000 UN uniformed personnel deployed worldwide. How can a more equitable sharing of the global peacekeeping burden be produced that generates new capabilities for UN operations? Operational partnerships are one potentially useful mechanism to further this agenda. They are partnerships that occur when military units from two or more countries combine to deploy as part of a peacekeeping operation. This report assesses the major benefits and challenges of these partnerships for UN peace operations at both the political and operational levels.
- Topic:
- International Organization, United Nations, Reform, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35790. Europe’s Return to UN Peacekeeping in Africa? Lessons from Mali
- Author:
- John Karlsrud and Adam C. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In a break from recent tradition, European member states are currently contributing significant military capabilities to a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Africa. Europeans are providing more than 1,000 troops to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) by staffing a wide range of operations including an intelligence fusion cell, transport and attack aircraft, and special forces. Yet for European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) that have spent several years working in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan, participating in a UN mission has been a process of learning and adaptation. For the UN, the contributions of key capabilities by European countries have pushed the UN system to adjust to the higher expectations of the new European TCCs, which has proved difficult in Mali’s complicated operating environment and political situation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
35791. Safety and Security Challenges in UN Peace Operations
- Author:
- Haidi Willmot, Scott Sheeran, and Lisa Sharland
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the tragic bombing of the UN headquarters in Iraq in 2003, a concerted effort has been made to improve and strengthen security arrangements across the UN system. However, too often, security issues are perceived as primarily technical matters that are not prioritized as strategically and politically important. This report takes stock of the strategic impact of safety and security for effective peace operations by outlining the evolving, increasingly hostile security context into which operations are being deployed and its implications for personnel. The authors assess existing UN management structures, policies, and processes to identify potential areas of reform. As they examine the diverse range of challenges and considerations for improving security of UN peace operations, they argue that effective security is about protecting UN personnel while enabling, not limiting, operational activity.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35792. Why We Fail to Prevent Mass Atrocities
- Author:
- Alex J. Bellamy and Adam Lupel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In the twenty years since the Rwandan genocide, the United Nations has developed an extensive body of policies, principles, and institutions dedicated to preventing mass atrocity crimes. But in recent years the killing of unarmed civilians has become all too prevalent again, from Syria to Iraq and South Sudan to the Central African Republic. So why does atrocity prevention fail? This is the central question addressed in the International Peace Institute’s new report, “Why We Fail: Obstacles to the Effective Prevention of Mass Atrocity.” The report explores the principal obstacles to effective prevention efforts and the strategies needed to improve the UN’s ability to respond. It considers the UN’s opportunities and constraints in different contexts, where the world body has a substantial field presence or limited or no presence on the ground
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Peacekeeping, and War Crimes
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35793. Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes
- Author:
- Marie O'Reilly, Andrea Ó Súilleabháin, and Thania Paffenholz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Peace and political transition processes provide key opportunities to transform institutions, structures, and relationships in societies affected by conflict or crises. Despite these wide-ranging implications, women’s participation in formal peacemaking remains low. And empirical evidence regarding the impact of women’s participation on peace has been lacking. The International Peace Institute’s new report, “Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes” examines the challenges and opportunities presented by women’s participation in peace and transition processes. It shares new quantitative and qualitative evidence on the impact of this participation and explores models and strategies for strengthening women’s influence throughout mediated processes. Based on research carried out at the International Peace Institute in New York and the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, the new report shows how the lag in women’s participation is linked to broader dilemmas in the peacemaking landscape today. Drawing on a comparative study of forty peace and transition processes from the Broadening Participation Project, it demonstrates that when women are able to effectively influence a peace process, a peace agreement is almost always reached and the agreement is more likely to be implemented. The report also features a case study on two distinct peace processes in the Philippines, where an unprecedented level of women’s participation offers lessons on their influence
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35794. Securing Education for Syrian Refugees in Jordan
- Author:
- Mona Christophersen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Approximately 40 percent of school-age Syrian refugees in Jordan are not getting an education. As the Syrian war has entered its fifth year and humanitarian actors seek to bridge short-term humanitarian assistance with longer-term development goals, about 80,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan are still falling through the cracks when it comes to education. This new report assesses the state of education for Syrian refugees in Jordan. It finds that despite generous efforts by the Jordanian government, the UN, and nongovernmental organizations to provide quality education for Syrian refugees, five significant impediments remain: - economic barriers in the education system and in Syrian refugee households - legal and regulatory obstacles to school enrollment, - educational divides between Syrian and Jordanian students, - social tensions in schools, and competing priorities for refugee households.
- Topic:
- Education, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Syria and Jordan
35795. Silencing the Guns: Strengthening Governance to Prevent, Manage, and Resolve Conflicts in Africa
- Author:
- Gilbert Khadiagala
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Since independence, African states and organizations have made significant investments in conflict management and resolution tools. So why do some African states and regions remain saddled by conflict and instability? How can African states leverage democratic governance to end wars? The new report Silencing the Guns suggests that the key to ending conflict in Africa lies in fostering effective governance and creating political and economic institutions that can effectively prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Author Gilbert Khadiagala unpacks how and why democratic governance is linked to conflict prevention and management, and provides an overview of landmark trends that have influenced governance in Africa since the 1950s. He shows that not all forms of democratic governance reduce conflicts and examines the ways in which “developmental dictatorships,” corruption, and the privatization of security are posing obstacles for governance and peace today.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
35796. State Formation, Humanitarianism, and Institutional Capabilities in South Sudan
- Author:
- Peter Biar Ajak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As South Sudan’s fourth anniversary approaches, the fractured state teeters on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe that has left millions in need of aid as a result of renewed fighting in the ongoing civil war. The relapse into conflict has been an enormous setback for statebuilding, curtailing efforts to ensure that humanitarian relief reaches all civilians in need of it. Through the nexus of humanitarianism and state formation, this issue brief assesses the international humanitarian system’s engagement in South Sudan during the period from statehood in July 2011 to the period immediately prior to the outbreak of the December 2013 crisis. Aside from responding to short-term needs, the author argues that humanitarianism ought to fit into the overall political strategy of supporting the process of state formation. The report outlines the enormous needs and challenges facing South Sudan since independence, its emerging humanitarian crises, and the response of humanitarian actors and donors. It addresses South Sudan’s unique challenges of state formation and the importance of linking long-term state capacity building to aid delivery. To advance aid delivery and improve implementation capacity in South Sudan, the author offers the following recommendations: Meaningfully involve government in the design and execution of aid projects. Finance projects that build on existing capacities at the lower tier of administration. Consider direct cash transfers. Raise local salaries to attract talent into the government. Finance public works projects.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- South Sudan
35797. Algeria and Its Neighbours
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Algeria is emerging as an indispensable broker of stability in North Africa and the Sahel. Where insecurity, foreign meddling and polarisation are on the rise across the region, it has at key moments promoted dialogue and state-building as the best means for lifting neighbours out of crisis, thus to safeguard its own long-term security. What some call Algeria’s “return” to regional politics after a long absence since its “black-decade” civil war in the 1990s has been positive in many respects: its approach of promoting inclusion and compromise to stabilise its neighbours, driven by enlightened self-interest, presents an opportunity for an international system that has struggled to tackle the challenges engendered by the Arab uprisings. Yet, its ambitions have self-imposed limits. A moribund domestic political scene – a regime riven by factionalism and uncertainty over who might succeed an ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika – cast a fog over the political horizon. Relations with other powers with clout in the region, notably Morocco and France, have room for improvement
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Algeria and North Africa
35798. Somaliland: The Strains of Success
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition. It is increasingly part of the regional system; ties are especially strong with Ethiopia and Djibouti. Given the continued fragility of the Somalia Federal Government (SFG), which still rejects its former northern region’s independence claims, and civil war across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, Somaliland’s continued stability is vital. This in turn requires political reforms aimed at greater inclusion, respect for mediating institutions (especially the professional judiciary and parliament) and a regional and wider internationally backed framework for external cooperation and engagement.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somaliland
35799. Kyrgyzstan: An Uncertain Trajectory
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s only even nominal parliamentary democracy, faces growing internal and external security challenges. Deep ethnic tensions, increased radicalisation in the region, uncertainty in Afghanistan and the possibility of a chaotic political succession in Uzbekistan are all likely to have serious repercussions for its stability. The risks are exacerbated by leadership failure to address major economic and political problems, including corruption and excessive Kyrgyz nationalism. Poverty is high, social services are in decline, and the economy depends on remittances from labour migrants. Few expect the 4 October parliamentary elections to deliver a reformist government. If the violent upheavals to which the state is vulnerable come to pass, instability could spread to regional neighbours, each of which has its own serious internal problems. The broader international community – not just the European Union (EU) and the U.S., but also Russia and China, should recognise the danger and proactively press the government to address the country’s domestic issues with a sense of urgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Kyrgyzstan
35800. Imagining a New Security Order in the Persian Gulf
- Author:
- Richard Sokolsky and Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For over three decades, the question of who controls the Persian Gulf has formed the basis for America’s massive military buildup in the region. At the heart of the region’s security dilemma is a clash of visions: Iran seeks the departure of U.S. forces so it can exert what it sees as its rightful authority over the region, while the Gulf Arab states want the United States to balance Iranian power. Resolving this impasse will not be easy. But the Iranian nuclear agreement presents an opportunity to take a first step toward creating a new security order in the Gulf, one that could improve relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states and facilitate a lessening of the U.S. military commitment. Read more at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/10/14/imagining-new-security-order-in-persian-gulf/ij3p
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Persian Gulf