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  • Author: David Cortright, Amitabh Mattoo
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Survey. An opinion survey of elite opinion on India's nuclear policy was conducted between late September and early November 1994. The survey consisted of face to face interviews with educated elites in seven Indian cities. Respondents were government civil servants, academicians, scientists, journalists, lawyers, politicians, doctors, public and private sector executives, members of the police and armed forces, and sports figures. Interviews were conducted by MARG, Marketing and Research Group Pvt. Ltd. (New Delhi), for the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana. The target sample size was 1000, with 992 responses. Respondents were interviewed in Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Banglore, Lucknow, and Hyderabad. Views on India's Nuclear Policy. Respondents were divided into three groups. The first and largest group (57 percent, N=563) consists of those supporting India's current policy of keeping the nuclear option open: neither renouncing nuclear weapons nor acquiring them. The second group (33 percent) supports India's acquisition of nuclear weapons (N=326). The third group (8 percent, N=83) favors renunciation of nuclear weapons. The survey probed the factors that might convince respondents to alter their views on nuclear weapons policy. For those supporting government policy or favoring weaponization, i.e., the vast majority of respondents, the most important considerations that would permit India to renounce the nuclear option are "a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament" and "a verifiable renunciation of Pakistan's nuclear option." Looking at the reverse question, what would justify India's development of nuclear weapons, nearly half of those supporting the government's position believe that India should proceed with weaponization if Pakistan tests a nuclear device. Threats from a nuclear Pakistan are also the primary consideration for those favoring weaponization. By contrast, the prospect of a border settlement with China and removal of Chinese nuclear weapons from Tibet appears to have little influence on opinion. Nor is there strong belief that a serious deterioration of relations with China could justify the development of nuclear weapons. These findings suggest that the primary motivation for the nuclear option in India is not the perceived threat from China but concern about the Pakistani nuclear program. An intensive effort to negotiate a verifiable test ban and nuclear inspection agreement with Pakistan could significantly enhance prospects for denuclearization. The strong consideration given to global disarmament also suggests that the most important step the United States and other nuclear powers could take to defuse nuclear tensions in South Asia would be to support negotiations for comprehensive nuclear disarmament, as called for in Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Support for Multilateral Arms Control. Thirty-nine percent of all respondents support the idea of India signing the NPT with or without the condition that Pakistan also sign the treaty. Forty-two percent of those who support the government's nuclear policy favor India signing the NPT either unilaterally or bilaterally with Pakistan. Even 32 percent of those who favor the development of nuclear weapons support India's signing of the NPT. More than 90 percent of all respondents express support for an international agreement for the elimination of all nuclear weapons. Only 2 percent oppose the idea. Use of Nuclear Weapons. Forty-four percent of all respondents feel that nuclear weapons could never be used. Thirty-three percent of respondents feel the use of nuclear weapons would be justified if Pakistan were about to take over Kashmir. Only 23 percent believe that a nuclear response would be appropriate if China were about to overwhelm India militarily. Factors Shaping Views Respondents were asked what would motivate them. to advocate India's acquiring of nuclear weapons as well as what might lead them. to support India's renouncing them. When those supporting India's current policy were asked what circumstances might lead them. to renounce nuclear weapons use, 58 percent cited a time-bound plan for global nuclear disarmament. The survey analysis found a significant correlation (r=.218, significant at .01 level) between the belief that threats from other nuclear powers justify India's development of nuclear weapons and the view that India could renounce nuclear weapons if a time-bound plan for global disarmament were in place. This buttresses the argument that greater international cooperation on disarmament might reduce the tendency of elites to accept nuclear weapons development as a policy option. The next largest proportion of respondents favoring government policy (26 percent) cited a verifiable ban on Pakistan's nuclear weapons development. Fifteen percent saw a boundary settlement with China and the removal of nuclear weapons from Tibet as a prerequisite for India's renunciation of nuclear weapons. This pattern of responses suggests that, while regional security issues are important for reducing the attractiveness of India's nuclear option, a far more important factor in reducing the inclination of elites to support the acquisition of nuclear weapons is a comprehensive treaty leading toward the global elimination of nuclear threats. Respondents who indicated that India should develop nuclear weapons most frequently cited threats from a nuclear Pakistan (57 percent) and an interest in advancing India's international bargaining power (49 percent) as their reasons for taking such a position. Twenty-seven percent of this group saw threats from other nuclear powers as motivating their interest in seeing India go nuclear. While a third of this group saw no circumstance which would lead them. to change their position on nuclear weapons, 42 percent saw a global agreement to eliminate nuclear testing and development as a situation under which India could renounce nuclear weapons. It appears that an international treaty would do two things that would address the primary concerns indicated by these respondents. First it would reduce the regional threat caused by the possibility of Pakistan acquiring a nuclear weapon. Second it would reduce the political leverage which nuclear weapons states have over nonnuclear states, thus reducing the attraction of nuclear weapons development as a political strategy. The group opposed to India's acquiring of nuclear weapons remained firmly opposed to their use, with 60 percent indicating that no circumstance would make them. consider that India should adopt such weapons. Of those who viewed some situations as calling for a nuclear response, the largest proportion viewed threats from other nuclear powers-as opposed to regionalized threats or other international pressures--as a situation which would lead them. to consider changing their views. This would suggest that the absence of international controls on nuclear weapons states creates insecurities which might prevent opponents of nuclear weapons from eschewing their use in international politics. Larger Study. This study is part of a larger study on India's nuclear choices, David Cortright (President, Fourth Freedom Forum, Goshen, Indiana) and Amitabh Mattoo (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India). The study is the result of a collaboration between Indian and American scholars, including Dr. Sumit Ganguly (Associate Professor, Hunter College, City University of New York), Dr. Kanti Bajpai (Associate Professor in International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi), Dr. Aabha Dixit (Research Officer, Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) and Dr. Varun Sahni (Reader in Politics, University of Goa). For more information about the survey and the larger study, contact David Cortright at 1-800-233-6786, or fax (1-219-534-4937) or mailto:fff@tln.net (outside the U.S., call 1-219-534-3402). Amitabh Mattoo can be reached in India by mailto:Mattoo@jnuniv.ernet.in or faxing 011-91-11-689-6454.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: India, Asia, New Delhi
  • Author: Zalman Shoval
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: The Hebron agreement is now finally in place. During the months that it took to reach that point, some must have been reminded of what the nineteenth century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerstone once said about the Schleswig-Holstein question: there were only three people who understood it - one of whom was dead, one was in an asylum, and he himself had forgotten it.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Mordechai Abir
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: The stability of Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf as a whole) is crucially important to the world's industrial countries. According to the Gulf Center of Strategic Studies, "oil is expected to account for 38 percent of all the world consumption of energy until 2015, compared to 39 percent in 1993. Increasing world-wide demand for oil, now about 74 million barrels per day, is projected to rise by 2015 to about 110 million" (Gulf Report, London, July 1997). Over 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of the total.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: David Newman
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Maps are a very important part of the political process of conflict resolution known as the peace process. Maps are important parts of all territorial conflicts. We often walk around with the idea of a map in our head and think we know what we are talking about, but often we do not.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Jacob M. Landau
  • Publication Date: 02-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: When Mustafa Kamal (Ataturk) founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 (he was its president until his death fifteen years later), he set as his main objective the modernization of the new republic. His preferred means was speedy, intensive secularization and, indeed, every one of his reforms was tied up with disestablishing other Islamic institutions from their hold on Turkey's politics, economics, society, and cultural life.
  • Topic: Government, Islam, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: This report presents summary data on the 100 companies, and their subsidiaries, receiving the largest dollar volume of Department of Defense (DoD) prime contract awards during fiscal year (FY) 1996. Table 1 lists the 100 companies in alphabetical order and gives their associated rank. Table 2, identifies the parent companies in rank order, with their subsidiaries, and gives the total net value of awards for both the parent company and its subsidiaries. In many cases, the parent company receives no awards itself, but appears on the list because of its subsidiaries. Table 2 also shows what percentage of the total awards each company's awards represent, as well as the cumulative percentage represented by all companies. Table 3, lists the top 100 companies DoD-wide in rank order and breaks the totals into three categories of procurement: Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDT); Other Services and Construction; and Supplies and Equipment. Table 4, lists the top 50 companies for each of the Reporting Components in rank order, and by category of procurement.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 12-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 05-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The data in this volume cover the operations of establishments of U.S. affiliates of foreign companies in 1992. A U.S. affiliate is a U.S. business enterprise that is owned 10 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by a foreign person. The volume is divided into two parts. The first covers all industries and presents data on the number, employment, payroll, and shipments or sales of the establishments of U.S. affiliates (hereinafter referred to as “foreign-owned establishments”); it includes data by detailed industry for nonmanufacturing and totals for manufacturing as a whole. The second part presents these data items by detailed industry within manufacturing as well as additional items for manufacturing establishments, including value added, total compensation of employees, employee benefits, hourly wage rates of production workers, and expenditures for new plant and equipment. In addition to data by industry, both parts present data by State and by country of owner. 2 The data for this volume were obtained from the Census Bureau's 1992 Economic Censuses and Standard Statistical Establishment List (SSEL). 3 They are the result of a project that links Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) enterprise, or company, data on foreign direct investment in the United States with Bureau of the Census establishment data for all U.S. businesses. 4 The project was authorized by the Foreign Direct Investment and International Financial Data Improvements Act of 1990. This volume updates data for foreign-owned manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987 and data for foreign-owned manufacturing establishments for 1988–91 published in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for Manufacturing, in separate volumes for each year (see “Data Availability”). To aid comparisons of the data in this publication with those in the publications for earlier years, tables A and B provide cross-references between the table numbers used in this publication and those used in the publications for 1987–91. Analyses of the data from the link are available in three SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS articles: “Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Establishment Data for 1987,” in the October 1992 issue of the SURVEY, gives an overview of the 1987 data and an analysis of the attributes of industries with substantial foreign direct investment activity; “Characteristics of Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1994/0194iid.pdf) in the January 1994 SURVEY, presents a profile of foreign-owned manufacturing establishments using the 1990 data; and “Differences in Foreign-Owned U.S. Manufacturing Establishments by Country of Owner,” (http://raven/ARTICLES/INTERNAT/FDINVEST/1996/0396iid.pdf) in the March 1996 SURVEY, uses the 1991 data to examine whether industry-mix and operating characteristics of foreign-owned U.S. manufacturing establishments vary by country of owner. In addition, an article that will analyze the 1992 data from a regional perspective is planned. The establishment data from the link project complement BEA's enterprise data for U.S. affiliates. BEA's enterprise data are needed for analyzing the overall significance of, and trends in, direct investment and for compiling the U.S. international transactions accounts, the international investment position of the United States, and the U.S. national income and product accounts. The data on positions and transactions between U.S. affiliates and their foreign parents used in compiling the national and international accounts exist only at the enterprise level. Analyses of some topics, such as profits and taxes, are meaningful only at that level. Furthermore, balance sheets and income statements containing the critical, nonduplicative financial and operating data needed for examining these topics exist only at the enterprise level. The establishment data facilitate analyses of the activities and importance of foreign-owned U.S. companies in specific, detailed industries. Each establishment of an enterprise can be classified separately in the establishment data, while BEA's enterprise data classify the entire enterprise, however diversified, in one industry. Furthermore, the level of industry classification can be much more detailed for individual establishments than is appropriate for consolidated enterprises, whose operations may span many narrowly defined industries. As a result, foreign-owned establishments can be classified into over 800 industries, while BEA's foreign-owned enterprises can be classified into only 135 industries. The tables in each part of this volume are organized into three groups. The first group gives an overview of the data by industry, country, and State. The second group presents detailed industry tables for individual States. The third group presents detailed industry tables for selected major investor countries. Some of the tables in each part show totals for key items of all U.S. establishments and the share of the all-U.S. totals accounted for by foreign-owned establishments.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Raymond J. Jr. Mataloni
  • Publication Date: 10-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The operations of nonbank U.S. multinational companies (MNC's)grew more rapidly in 1995 than they had grown, on average, since 1982—the year in which this annual series began. According to preliminary estimates from BEA's annual survey of U.S. direct investment abroad for 1995, worldwide gross product of U.S. MNC's (U.S. parents and majority-owned foreign affiliates combined) grew 6 percent, compared with an average annual increase of 4 percent in 1982–94; employment increased 1 percent, compared with negligible growth; and capital expenditures increased 8 percent, compared with a 2-percent increase (table 1).
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Russel B. Scholl
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The net international investment position of the United States at yearend 1996 was -$870.5 billion with direct investment valued at the current cost of tangible assets, and it was -$831.3 billion with direct investment valued at the current stock-market value of owners' equity (table A, chart 1). For both measures, the value of foreign assets in the United States continued to exceed the value of U.S. assets abroad. However, for the direct investment component of the position valued on either basis, U.S. assets abroad continue to exceed foreign assets in the United States.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, was a pioneer in the movement for African independence. In past centuries, its territory was home to a series of powerful and technically-advanced societies, renowned for their artistic, commercial, and political achievements.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Electronic networks—and particularly the new tools of e-mail and the World Wide Web (see below for an overview of basic concepts and a glossary with short definitions)—have great potential for enhancing global democratic access to policy-making processes. But de facto access to effective use of these technologies is biased in all the predictable directions: by race, gender, economic status, and location. Africa, to date the least connected continent, is particularly disadvantaged. By cutting the costs of long-distance communication, however, the information revolution is also opening up new possibilities. How well Africa and Africa's friends take advantage of these opportunities will depend at least as much on our collective capacity to learn as on the material resources available to us.
  • Topic: Science and Technology, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Salih Booker
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Recent Congressional action to significantly cut aid to Africa is only one sign among many of a trend to reduce U.S. involvement on the continent. How much further Africa is marginalized in the U.S. will ultimately depend on the ability of Africa's multiple constituencies to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, events on the continent are likely to compel a greater commitment of resources than U.S. policymakers currently contemplate. And engagement at any level needs to be based on clear identification of U.S. interests in Africa and well-defined criteria for establishing priorities.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Ronald McKinnon, Kazuko Shirono, Kenichi Ohno
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: From 1971 through mid-1995, the yen continually appreciated against the U.S. dollar because the Japanese and American governments were caught in a mutual policy trap. Repeated threats of a trade war by the United States caused the yen to ratchet up in 1971-73, 1977-78, 1985-87, and 1993 to mid-1995. While temporarily ameliorating commercial tensions, these great appreciations imposed relative deflation on Japan without correcting the trade imbalance between the two countries. Although resisting sharp yen appreciations in the short run, the Bank of Japan validated this syndrome of the ever-higher yen by following a monetary policy that was deflationary relative to that established by the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The appreciating yen was a forcing variable in determining the Japanese price level. After 1985, this resulted in great macroeconomic instability in Japan--including two endaka fukyos (high-yen-induced recessions).
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia
  • Author: K.C. Fung, Lawrence Lau
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, Hong Kong
  • Author: Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, Michael H. Armacost
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Vishakha N. Desai, Chang-lin Tien, Sanford J. Ungar, Robert T. Matsui, Shirley Young
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: From its inception, more than two years ago, “Bridges with Asia: Asian Americans in the United States” has sought to explore the implications of the bicultural identity—felt or perceived—of the Asian American in a global community in which the Asia-Pacific region has become increasingly predominant. The purpose was to examine the possible relationship between two significant factors in America's national and international experience: the unprecedented growth of the Asian American population in the last three decades and the rise of the Asia-Pacific region as one of the world's most dynamic areas as well as the one most crucial to the future of the United States. With an active advisory committee composed of scholars, community leaders, and representatives of other cultural organizations (see the end of this report), we attempted to address a number of key issues ranging from economic relations between different regions of Asia and the United States to generational attitudes toward Asian Americans' countries of origin. The following questions provided the framework for discussion: What roles do Asian Americans play in the increased interaction between U.S. companies and Asian countries? How are they affecting the domestic economies of their countries of origin? How are Asian Americans perceived by local American political leaders and what is their impact upon American domestic politics? What role, if any, do they play in U.S. foreign policy toward particular Asian countries? How is the notion of “home” used by writers and artists of Asian origin? How are conceptions of loyalty or nationalism made manifest for diverse groups of Asian Americans who often have very little in common except for a census category, or how they are perceived by others?
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Asia
  • Author: Michael E. Mandelbaum, Richard C. Holbrooke
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Good evening. Welcome to the second or the third of our Great Debates, it depends on how you're counting. The first formal one was about six weeks ago when Madeleine Albright, our new Secretary of State designate, and Jeane Kirkpatrick debated about the United Nations. Before that we had a trial run with Bob Ellsworth, one of Senator Dole's closest friends and advisors, and Tom Donilon, the chief of staff of the State Department.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Haruhiko Kuroda, Dr. Norbert Walter, Robert C. Pozen, Thomas W. Jones, Alice M. Rivlin, Marshall Carter, Olivia S. Mitchell, Russell J. Cheetham, Yves Guerard, Jan Svejnar, David Hale, Martin S. Feldstein, Robert D. Hormats
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Social Security has been described as the crown jewel of American federal government programs. It is widely recognized to be the major reason why the poverty rate among the elderly in the United States has fallen in half since 1959 and is lower today than the poverty rate for any other population group as a whole. Fifteen million older Americans are kept out of poverty by Social Security.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Leslie Gelb. I'm president of the Council on Foreign Relations. And welcome, as well, to our audience from C-SPAN.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, National Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Madeleine Albright, Jeane Kirkpatrick
  • Publication Date: 09-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Presider: Dr. LESLIE GELB:: (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Pundits and pollsters tell us that the American people aren't paying much attention to foreign policy, and we can all understand that. But I think you will agree with me that if Americans would hear our guests tonight, they'd pull out their earplugs because our guests are two masters of statecraft and two possible Secretaries of State: Jeane Kirkpatrick and Madeleine Albright.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: David J. Vidal
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: In the architecture of postwar American foreign policy, the twin themes of the Cold War and the national interest emerge as unshakable pillars. In the design of the conference, one session was set aside to explore the practical and political meanings of these themes for minorities. Conferees were asked to consider how Cold War foreign policy priorities intersected with minority concerns. They were also asked to assess whether the declaration made by Hans J. Morgenthau --that "we should have one guiding standard for thought and action, the national interest"--was a useful benchmark. These two points of departure struck the organizers as indispensable to any rethinking of the future.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Alexander Pikayev, Alexei Arbatov, Richard Speier, Rodney W. Jones, John Pike, Michael Nacht, Linton Brooks, Stephen Cambone, Seth Carus, Robert Einhorn, Ronald Lehman II, McCarthy Tim, Yuri Nazarkin, Keith Payne, Henry Sokolski, Mikhail Streltsov
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The first panel focused on the U.S. and Russian stakes in strategic arms control, the prospects for START II ratification in Russia, the status of START III issues, and the possibilities for cooperative approaches to the issues of strategic offense-defense interaction. The Russian panelists, Ambassadors Yuri Nazarkin and Mikhail Streltsov, and State Duma member Alexei Arbatov, explained Russia's START II reservations, steps in the ratification process, and expected implementation problems in eliminating Russia's multiple warhead (MIRVed) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On balance, they agreed that START II serves Russia's basic interests, in lower levels of strategic arms, eventual economic savings, and political and military parity with the United States. They acknowledged that the ball is now in Russia's court, and ventured that parliament's approval probably would occur eventually.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Monique Borrel, Stephen Bornstein, Pierre-Eric Tixier, Chris Benner, Julia E. Kopich, W. Norton Grubb
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: From the beginning of the industrial era to the present time, French social history has been characterized by recurrent strikes of great magnitude. Contrary to most postwar industrialized countries where large strikes ceased to play a key role in sociopolitical changes, the French case presents an important anomaly. This research demonstrates that strikes have been instrumental in reshaping French society since the early 1950s. First, strike waves and generalized disputes supported the rapid expansion of the Welfare State throughout the postwar period. They also prompted leftist parties and unions to achieve coordination in their strategies and to orchestrate national demonstration strikes, which resulted in the emergence of a leftist electoral majority. Besides, the 1968 strike waves and the leftist strategy to achieve political power supported the upward trend in unionization in the 1970s. Beginning in the early 1980s, this French pattern of strikes has resulted in a number of perverse effects that account for the crisis of the mid1990s. In that respect, the French experience supports the idea that advanced industrial societies cannot afford recurrent general strikes without damaging the very fabric of democracy and without jeopardizing their economic future.
  • Topic: Education, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: America, Europe, France
  • Author: Wolfgang Seibel, Christopher S. Allen, Hans-Georg Betz, Henry Kreikenbaum, John Leslie, Andrei S. Markovitz, Ann L. Phillips, Michaela W. Richter
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: According to West German standards, there is only a weak nonprofit sector in East Germany today. The East German quasi-nonprofit sector nonetheless is an indispensable institutional ingredient of political integration. It is characterized by an amazing degree of structural and ideological continuity. Much of its organizational setting dates back to the pre-1989 era. Both funding and managerial attitudes are shaped by state-centeredness. Nonprofit institutions are heavily engaged in mitigating the social costs of economic transformation. Many of them, especially at the local level, are controlled by members of the former-communist PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism). Thus, the East German quasinonprofit sector presumably integrates two important societal groups more effectively than the regular polity: those alienated from the new democracy due to economic disappointment or deprivation and those alienated from the new democracy due to ideological reasons (former communists in particular). This indicates a remarkable institutional elasticity whose main function is to "synchronize" the dramatically accelerated pace of political change and the much slower pace of societal change.
  • Topic: Cold War, Democratization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel N. Nelson, Andrei S. Markovits, Thomas Banchoff, Patricia A. Davis, Christian Deubner, Lily Gardner Feldman, JoEllyn Murillo Fountain, Stefan Immerfall, Michael Kreile, Carl Lankowski, Barbara Lippert, Susanne Peters, Elke Thiel, Wolfgang Wessels
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the continuity in German policy in Europe across the 1990 divide. Although the collapse of the Soviet bloc and reunification transformed the context of German foreign policy, its fundamental direction remained unchanged. The new Germany, like the old, made solidarity with the western allies the cornerstone of its policy in Europe. Chancellor Helmut Kohl did address new policy challenges in the East. But he made stronger western institutions, and a deeper European Union in particular, his top priorities. Neorealism and neoliberalism, this paper argues, cannot adequately explain the strong western orientation of the Federal Republic in the early 1990s. The constellation of power and institutions at the international level left German leaders with different ways to combine association with the West and engagement in the East. In order to explain the priority accorded solidarity with the West, it is necessary to bring in the foreign policy priorities espoused by Kohl and the views of history and its lessons that informed them.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Ole Wæver
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Where is Germany heading? So we have been asking ourselves since the wall fell. We had been reasonably calmed down: they were apparently not out for new adventures of their own. No Eastward going it alone -- neither in Eastern Europe, nor with the Russians. Nor any autonomous power politics. On the contrary, Germany has primarily made itself noticed in global politics through its continued restraint, from half-hearted support in the Gulf War to qualms over participation in UN operations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Germany
  • Author: Wayne Sandholtz, Alec Stone Sweet
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: We posit a continuum of modes of governance, anchored at the poles by intergovernmental and supranational politics. Movement from intergovernmental politics toward the supranational pole implies the increasing importance of three factors in EU policymaking: EU rules, EU organizations, and transnational society. We propose that an increase in one of the three factors creates conditions that favor growth in the other two. We also offer a theory as to what drives initial movement toward supranational governance: increasing levels of cross-border transactions and communications by societal actors will increase the perceived need for European-level rules, coordination, and dispute resolution mechanisms. The theory provides a coherent answer to the question of why integration proceeds faster in some domains than in others. We expect movement toward supranational governance in sectors where the intensity and value of cross-border transactions is rising.
  • Topic: Government, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Alec Stone Sweet, James A. Caporaso
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: In this paper, we propose a dynamic theory of legal integration, test the model quantitatively, and then cross-check it by way of process tracing. We show that transnational exchange, litigation, and the production of Euro-rules have evolved interdependently, and argue that this interdependence provokes and reinforces the spillover effects that partly drive the construction of supranational governance. In case studies of the impact of the legal system on outcomes in two areas, the free movement of goods and European social provisions, we show that our model outperforms the dominant framework for understanding how the EC legal system operates - intergovernmentalism. In each of these areas, the data show that the legal system functions to reduce member-state government control over policy outcomes, and to enhance the influence of supranational institutions, national judges, and private actors.
  • Topic: Government, International Law, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Neil Fligstein, Jason McNichol
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: One of the central issues in making sense of the European Union is the question of the degree to which it functions as an autonomous state. One pole of this debate conceives of the EU as a supranational entity while the other argues that it remains an intergovernmental bargain. Here, we propose to analyze the EU in terms of the structuring of its policy domains. 12 of 17 domains appear organized by nongovernmental organizations. We conclude that while the governments retain direct control over important parts of the EU, they have allowed most policy domains at the EU level to become autonomous.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Paul Pierson
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Many European and American observers of the EC have criticized "intergovernmentalist" accounts for exaggerating the extent of member state control over the process of European integration. This essay seeks to ground these criticisms in a historical institutionalist" account that stresses the need to study European integration as a political process which unfolds over time. Such a perspective highlights the limits of member state control over long-term institutional development. Losses of control result from member state preoccupation with short-term concerns, the ubiquity of unintended consequences, and processes that "lock in" past decisions and make reassertions of member state authority difficult. Brief examination of the evolution of EC social policy suggests the limitations of treating the EC as an institutional "instrument" facilitating collective action among sovereign states. It is more useful to view integration as a path-dependent process that has produced a fragmented but still discernible multi-tiered European polity.
  • Topic: International Organization, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Wayne Sandholtz
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: The patchwork of national telecommunications monopolies in the EU was incapable of meeting a rapidly growing need on the part of societal actors for efficient, technologically advanced, cross-border telecommunications. The Commission mobilized various transnational actors -- equipment manufacturers, business users, providers of new services, suppliers of alternative infrastructures -- to support its plans for EU-level liberalization and harmonization. Whereas in a first phase the Commission acted as a source of initiatives and models for states whose policies were in flux, the second phase saw a dramatic shift in the nature of governance. Employing its powers under Article 90 of the Treaty (which does not require Council approval), the Commission set out to abolish national monopolies in telecoms equipment, services, and, finally, infrastructures. The telecoms case thus supports three of the project's central propositions: that societal transactions drive movement toward supranational governance; that changes in EU rules, organizations, and transnational society are interlinked; and that member states do not always control these processes of institutionalization.
  • Topic: Government, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Everyone studing EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden's income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlation are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.) The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden's income interest to join EMU. We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strengthen in the future, then Sweden's income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naïve examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Sweden
  • Author: Susanne K. Schmidt
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: European competition law allocates far-reaching competences to the European Commission. The paper asks for the conditions under which the Commission may use these rights against the member states, focusing on the most powerful provision - the right of the Commission under Article 90 to issue directives by itself in those cases where member-state governments have allocated specific rights to undertakings that conflict with the Treaty's rules. In addition the Commission may pursue Treaty violations on a case-by-case basis. In European telecommunications policy the Commission has used its powers rather successfully, with all liberalization decisions being based on Article 90. But for European electricity policy the Commission has shrunk away from using these powers in favor of initiating council legislation. The paper analyzes the conditions of the Commission's ability to act under European competition law in a multi-level framework, drawing among others on a principal-agent approach.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Government, International Law, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Frank Schimmelfennig
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: Two seemingly contradictory trends dominate the European debate over legitimate rule. On the one hand, there appears to be no ideologically viable alternative to liberal democracy following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. On the other, the rapid progress of European integration has triggered an intense public debate over the European Union's "legitimacy deficit" and active popular opposition in many Western European countries. This paper asks whether these two seemingly contradictory developments can be reconciled. It argues that they can once it is recognized that the modern inter-state system is undergoing profound change. State sovereignty is being undermined by the trans-nationalization of foreign policy and the inter-nationalization of governance. In particular, the European Union has crossed the border from horizontal (or anarchical) interstate cooperation to vertical (or hierarchical) policy making in a multi-level political system in which states are but one level of the policy.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, International Organization, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gregory W. Noble
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: The last decade has witnessed a momentous transformation in the political economy of East and Southeast Asia. From the 1950s until the early 1980s transnational production played a limited role in the strategies of Northeast Asian governments and firms. Ubiquitous policies of protection and promotion aimed to increase domestic investment, production and exports. Governments discouraged outward investment through financial controls, particularly over foreign currencies; they limited inward foreign investment to narrowly confined niches, and then often subjected it to onerous restrictions to prevent foreigners from gaining a major foothold in the national economy. The few exceptions involved areas in which domestic production was inadequate: investments in Southeast Asian raw materials and energy; investments by Japanese and Western firms in Korea and Taiwan for some labor-intensive products to be sold in local or third-country markets (but rarely in Japan); and a handful of high-tech investments by Western firms such as IBM which enjoyed such strong patent positions that they could not be forced to license their technology. Since the mid-1980s the combination of rapid currency appreciation, rising costs of labor, land and pollution control in Northeast Asia, and liberalizing economic reforms in Southeast Asia led to a huge surge of direct foreign investment, mainly for the production of labor-intensive manufactured goods. The focal point of Northeast Asian economies shifted from export-led growth based on protected domestic markets to management of regional production networks spread throughout Asia.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, Taiwan, Asia, Korea
  • Author: Edmund A. Egan
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Microsoft Corporation, the largest company in the US software industry, has been under anti-trust scrutiny from the Department of Justice for most of the 1990s. In 1995, its planned acquisition of Intuit, Inc. prompted a Silicon Valley law firm, on behalf of unnamed complainants, to submit a White Paper to the DOJ, on the subject of Microsoft's long-term strategy. The White Paper, relying on the theoretical concepts of network externalities and lock-in effects, argues that Microsoft will use Intuit's products to attain monopolistic positions in network operating systems, on-line services, and electronic commerce, and will eventually be in a position to affect the content transmitted over electronic networks.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Andrew Young
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: This year, the world celebrated the 100th anniversary of the modern Olympiad. Consider this vision of a world at peace: The opening ceremonies in Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Stadium, where more than 10,000 athletes from 197 countries gathered to demonstrate the highest ideals—teamwork, sportsmanship, and recognition of personal achievement. All invited countries participated, free of the ideological and political restraints that prevented many from attending in years past. For 16 days in July and August the world came together to honor those striving to surmount universal standards of excellence. Our hearts reached out to the hurdler who stumbled just before the finish line, the marathon runner who shook off fatigue, the Paralympian who rose above all expectations. We saw, for a brief moment, the potential all of us have to better ourselves and our world.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The Carter Center convened a small, informal meeting to examine the question of whether there might be developed "more effective" international economic sanctions -- those which better achieve desired political goals without causing great suffering to innocent people. President Carter and others have expressed frustration that recent sanctioning efforts have fallen short of their objectives, yet sanctions appear to be one of the only tools available to the international community short of a resort to force. This meeting, chaired by Harry Barnes, Director of the Conflict Resolution and Human Rights programs at The Carter Center, set out to identify 1) what factors might be involved in designing more effective sanctions; 2) what obstacles must be overcome; 3) what steps governments and international bodies such as the United Nations might take to improve sanctions; and 4) what steps might be taken by non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The following is a summary of the discussion and possible follow-up actions, paying particular attention on potential roles for NGOs.
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Robert A. Pastor
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: In my travels throughout Latin America, I have always found the region's leaders eager to converse with American statesmen, but with few exceptions, they mostly had to content themselves with speaking to specialists like me. The kind of transnational dialogue that would permit hemispheric relations to rise to a higher level just did not exist. When President Carter asked if I would direct a new program at The Carter Center, my thoughts turned to the question of whether I could help form a group of senior statesmen from thoughts the hemisphere, who not only could consult with each other, but also work together to advance the ideals of human rights, democracy, social justice, and equitable development that lie at the core of the inter-American promise.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean
  • Author: Yagil Levy
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Richard Whitman
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: The Treaty on European Union (TEU, or 'Maastricht Treaty'), which came into force on 1 November 1993, established a 'three pillar' structure for the new European Union. Pillar one consists of the European Communities - the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC); the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC); and the European Community (EC). Pillars Two and Three were introduced by the TEU and consist of, respectively, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and co-operation in Home and Judicial Affairs (HJA).
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sofía Gallardo C.
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: With the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement different view regarding the possible environmental risks and the measures that had to be taken in order to be able to manage them were expressed. Some environmental organizations for the first time sought to influence international trading issues in local, national and trinational networks. Current globalization processes have established new challenges to the citizens because they have forced them to focus their political action simultaneously in national, regional and global public scenarios. Therefore, Mexican, Canadian and American citizens have been increasingly involved in their countries' economic integration processes, creating awareness of the possible risks generated by the current globalization patterns and of the ways in which they can be affected. This paper concentrates on the challenges that civic organizations in general, and environmental groups in particular, have had to confront in order to maintain or try to improve their living standards with the implementation of NAFTA and offers some considerations on the successes and failures of civic and environmental actions in the purview of NAFTA.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: America, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Jesus Velasco
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
  • Abstract: The classification of current political tendencies in the United States is sometimes confusing. Since the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign, American journalists and scholars have used indistinctly terms like right, conservatism, neoconservatism, ultraconservatism, extreme right, New Right, etc., to define the different political forces behind Reagan's ascent to the White House. This confusion is evident in the work of John Judis. He believes that Kevin Phillips (a conservative scholar), Paul Weyrich (a New Right activist), Irving Kristol (a neoconservative leader), and William Buckley (a traditional conservative), could all be embraced within the term "conservative" without considering any differences in their theoretical and political position.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Susanne Lutz
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: The debate on economic 'globalization' suggests that the blurring of territorial boundaries shifts the power relations between nation-states and domestic market constituencies in favour of the latter. States have lost autonomy since policies are increasingly formulated in supranational or global arenas. Market actors may use their wider choice of geographic location in order to lobby for low regulated market environments. The paper seeks to differentiate this common view considerably. It argues that economic internationalization weakens the capacity of domestic market actors to engage in self-binding agreements that formerly had solved regulatory problems. Networks of interstate collaboration in turn lack the ability to monitor and enforce negotiated agreements. Both developments impose new duties of market supervision on the nation-state. Empirical reference is drawn from the stock exchange sector that went through a process of transformation which has led to an enhanced role of the nation-state in the model of sectoral governance.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Reiner Grundmann
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: Successful international cooperation is a puzzling problem for social scientists. The ozone layer has been subject to both international treaties and domestic legislation. It is one of the foremost success stories in international relations, yet insufficiently understood. In this paper I argue that existing approaches - including the sophisticated and highly acclaimed epistemic community approach - do not take the underlying theoretical problems seriously enough. Departing from the epistemic community approach, I propose a framework for a network analysis combining interests, knowledge and power into a coherent model, which is derived from this case but can apply to similar cases sharing similar characteristics. It is argued that one of two rivaling policy networks gained hegemony over the other, mainly by winning over allies from the competing network. Ultimately this contributed to the competing network's breakdown.
  • Topic: International Relations, Environment, International Cooperation
  • Author: Lykke Friis
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: For a short period in May 1998, Denmark once again found itself in the European limelight. After the Danish no to the Maastricht Treaty in June 1992, European governments held their breath when the Danes were called to the ballot box on the 28th of May to accept or reject the Treaty of Amsterdam. A quick glance at the actual debate and the final result could easily leave the impression that everything was business-as-usual. Just like in 1972, 1986, 1992 and 1993 the debate largely centered around broad issues, such as the pros and the cons of Danish EU-membership and the danger of 'little Denmark' being swallowed by the 'big EU'. The final outcome of the referendum also looked familiar: Although 55.1 per cent of the Danish population voted in favor of the Treaty, a large minority continued to give an EU-Treaty their thumbs-down.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Wonderful though it would be, in the real world it is not always possible to combine whatever is desirable and valuable. The present author holds (at least) two things to possess these qualities, namely a defensive restructuring of the armed forces and an expanded role for the United Nations. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze whether these two desiderata are possible to combine, or whether any incorrectable incompatibilities necessitate a choice between the two. The diagram below illustrates some of the possible inherent dilemmas in the form of a hierarchy of values, with an indication of logical (dotted lines) and causal (arrows) connections.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Alexander A. Sergounin
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia