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35571. TSG IntelBrief: Bin Ladinism vs. Assad in Syria

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The seizure of Idlib, Syria on March 27 by a newly formed coalition led by al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate makes it ever clearer that the conflict in Syria has devolved into two camps: extremist followers of the violent ideology of bin Ladinism and supporters of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad The rebel coalition, led by al-Nusra Front with its effective fighting force and recently seized advanced weaponry and Jaysh al-Fatah, a group divided amongst itself between various shades of Islamist factions that include groups like Ahrar al-Sham, accomplished in several days what rebel groups had been unable to do for four years: take effective control of the provincial capital of Idlib The loss of Idlib is a significant setback for the Assad regime, which conceded the provincial capital of Raqqa in 2013 to the Islamic State; with the regime in Damascus, there are now three extremist capitals in one broken country As success begets success, al-Nusra will attract more groups and supporters who believe it is the only realistic chance of toppling Assad, rallying more to its extremist ranks even if only out of necessity.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Syria

35572. TSG IntelBrief: A War of Frustrations

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
There hasn't been a lasting and successful end to an armed conflict in the Middle East in decades, and the newest fighting in Yemen can be seen through a lens of deep regional frustration over countless issues that seem to defy solutions The entire region is frustrated with the worsening status quo, but the consensus and creativity to meaningfully address the challenges is lacking, even with the newly announced Arab 'rapid response force' to an extremist problem that has been openly growing for a decade The only actors not frustrated are non-state actors, who fill the ever-widening chasm between what regional governments can deliver and what their populations demand.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Algeria

35573. Nuclear Iran: A Glossary

Author:
Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Iran's nuclear program dates from the late 1950s. By the 1960s, the united states had supplied the iranians with a small research reactor. Later, the shah had ambitious plans to construct twenty-three nuclear power reactors, and initial orders were placed with west german and french companies. Iran also started to invest in nuclear fuel-cycle services, though was unable, due to u.s. Pressure, to obtain reprocessing or uranium enrichment plants. It did, however, invest in the eurodif enrichment plant in france and the roessing uranium mine in namibia, shareholdings it maintains today. When iran signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 1968 and ratified it in 1970, all its nuclear activities became subject to inspection by the international atomic energy agency (iaea).
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Namibia

35574. TSG IntelBrief: A Wider War in Yemen

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The crisis in Yemen is primarily a Yemeni one, with legitimate internal issues and dysfunction that will not be improved by turning the crisis into a regional sectarian fight Once the genie of sectarian war is out of the bottle in Yemen, it will be impossible to put back, as seen in Iraq and Syria; the result will be years of conflict that could have been avoided by addressing the conflict as a local one As acknowledged by the U.S. State Department, Saudi Arabia does have legitimate concerns about what happens with its southern neighbor; however, treating the crisis as a primarily sectarian issue will likely be counterproductive The rhetoric on all sides and in their respective social media echo chambers is increasingly sectarian, escalating the conflict to the point where only Sunni extremists and Shi'a hardliners benefit and the people of Yemen suffer.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Yemen and Syria

35575. Missed Opportunity: The Politics of Police Reform in Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Police forces and security agencies genuinely accountable to democratically elected civilian authorities have not emerged in either Egypt or Tunisia four years after popular uprisings forced the countries' longtime leaders from power. Ministries of interior remain black boxes with opaque decisionmaking processes, governed by officer networks that have resisted meaningful reform, financial transparency, and political oversight. Until governments reform their security sectors, rather than appease them, the culture of police impunity will deepen and democratic transition will remain impossible in Egypt and at risk in Tunisia.
Political Geography:
Egypt and Tunisia

35576. TSG IntelBrief: Iran's Strategic Expansion

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Outside of its own borders, Iran now has significant proxy presence and influence in four countries encompassing 1.1 million square kilometers and 82 million people, in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon It has done this by leveraging tactical decisions made by other countries into its own strategic expansion; from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and now Yemen, Iran is taking advantage of the short-term actions of others in its long-term plan The complete collapse of the U.S.-aided Yemeni president and the associated counterterrorism and military support is just the latest example of measures intended to address immediate pressures, which ultimately benefit Iran-all while U.S. airstrikes support Iraqi and Iranian militias in Tikrit against the immediate threat of the Islamic State It's not that Iranian leaders are all-knowing, masterful chess players but rather that the Middle East has for decades been a battlefield of ad hoc stability measures by numerous countries that have enabled Iran to steadily project power, to the extreme concern of countries such as Saudi Arabia, which has now launched airstrikes in Yemen.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

35577. TSG IntelBrief: Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State: Same in All but Name

Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The Islamic State and al-Qaeda have more in common than sets them apart, as both groups embrace 'bin Ladinism' even as their leaderships differ on tactics and priorities As the fortunes of the two groups wax and wane, their shared characteristics are likely to become more pronounced and their rivalries less so For the moment, the competition between them weakens their appeal and blunts their impact; any trend towards reconciliation or partnership could magnify the threat they pose across the Arab world.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

35578. Editors' Note

Author:
Louis Century and Tim Hughes
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Law and International Relations
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
We are in a period of change for academic journals, and JILIR is no exception. Cycle times for the publication of information, even academic information, are increasingly condensed. Pressure to expedite processes and render quick decisions is intense, and maintaining this pace is difficult for a student-run process wed to the ebbs and flows of the academic calendar. These challenges are amplified for JILIR, a multi-disciplinary journal edited collaboratively by students in different faculties and fields of research. This collaboration, however, remains JILIR's greatest strength, and we are proud that the quality of our publication remains our central focus. The works contained in this issue are demonstrative of the forward-looking and multi-disciplinary scholarship that journals like ours are uniquely positioned to provide.

35579. Editors' Note

Author:
Graham M. Smith, Kate Robertson, and Jonathan Bright
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Law and International Relations
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
JILIR is predicated upon collaboration. Collaboration between disciplines, allowing us to showcase world-leading scholarship at the intersection of international law and international relations. Collaboration between schools, with the Munk School of Global Affairs and the University of Toronto Faculty of Law offering us a shared intellectual home and a deep pool of talented student volunteers. Collaboration amongst our staff – 80 in total – who worked together seamlessly to bring this issue to print. And most e and forbearance through many months and many rounds of revisions.

35580. Editors' Note

Author:
Lin Cong, Caroline Senini, and Sean Tyler
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Law and International Relations
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
JILIR is a joint project of the University of Toronto Faculty of Law and the Munk School of Global Affairs. It is our goal to facilitate and promote scholarly exploration of the nexus of international law and international relations. Our commitment to this endeavor stems from a belief in the complementarity of these fields and the value of stimulating conversation on their common themes. The recent expansion of the Master of Global Affairs program at the Munk School of Global Affairs boosts the diversity of voices in our review process and better equips the journal to ensure it achieves this mandate.