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  • Author: Chung-in Moon
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The North Korean problem is composed of two inter-related issues, namely nuclear weapons and missiles. The current quasi-crisis on the Korean peninsula has resulted mainly from disputes over North Korea's nuclear weapons development that involves three dimensions. The first dimension is the suspicion on its past possession of nuclear warheads (one or two) before the signing of the Geneva Agreed Framework (Agreed Framework) in 1994. The second one centers on present nuclear issues related to reprocessing of 8,000 spent fuel rods stored in water pond and manufacturing and exports of plutonium as well as production of additional nuclear warheads, which were previously frozen by the 1994 Agreed Framework. The third dimension is the future nuclear problem associated with the development of highly enriched uranium (HEU) program. The United States claims that North Korea admitted its existence during its special envoy, James Kelly's visit to Pyongyang in October 2002.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Geneva, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: Rajesh Basrur
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The central question before us is whether it is appropriate for South Asians to learn from the US-Soviet experience of the Cold War. This raises other questions: Are the two sets of relationships comparable? Is there in South Asia a "cold war" essentially similar to the Cold War? Should the theoretical lenses we use for both sets be the same? Can we learn from the one about the other? Is the thinking and practice relating to nuclear weapons in the two sets comparable?
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Joseph C. Folio
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Paul G. Frost
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises in Spring 2003 took on the topic, "The Unintended Consequences of an Expanded U.S. Military Presence in the Muslim World", holding its first meeting March 18, literally on the eve of war against Iraq. Its second meeting was held May 27, after the war ended, and as the difficulties of post-war reconstruction were becoming clearer. Core members and area/subject experts met to examine benefits and drawbacks, as well as scenarios that could stem from an expanded American military presence in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, South Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Gaza
  • Author: Barbara F. Walter
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Between 1940 and 1996, governments were seventy percent less likely to negotiate with rebels seeking independence or greater territorial autonomy than with rebels seeking any other goal. Current theories suggest that this is due to the economic, strategic, or psychological value of territory under dispute. I argue that a government's decision to negotiate has more to do with the signal the government wishes to send to future challengers than with any specific characteristics of the land in question. If the government believes it could face multiple separatist challenges in the future, it will invest in a reputation for toughness now rather than face additional challengers down the road. If the government knows it will face such a challenge only once, there is less reason to invest in a reputation and negotiation is likely to result. An analysis of all self-determination movements between 1940 and 2000 demonstrates that governments of multiethnic states are far less likely to negotiate than are governments that preside over more homogenous populations.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Author: Daniel Byman
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: The Bush administration entered office skeptical of using the U.S. military to build democracy. Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's National Security Advisor, wrote before the election that: "The President must remember that the military is a special instrument. It is lethal, and it is meant to be. It is not a civilian police force. It is not a political referee. And it is most certainly not designed to build a civilian society." Despite this skepticism, policing, building a civilian society, and other tasks inherent to democratization were quickly thrust upon the Bush administration. Even before the fall of the Taliban, the United States and its allies began trying to shape a new government to take power in Kabul. And today, as the United States and its allies move to topple Saddam's regime, they are grappling with how to create a stable and democratic future for Iraq.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Taliban, Kabul
  • Author: S. Merrett
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: The Editor of Water International published in the March 2003 issue a paper by Stephen Merrett containing a critique of the “virtual water” concept as well as replies by Tony Allan and Christopher Lant. This discussion paper is a rejoinder to Allan and Lant that also raises the stakes by considering the relation of “virtual water” to an emerging Kyoto consensus on water resources management.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Environment, International Law
  • Author: Seungho Lee
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: This chapter analyses the development in the civil realm of environmental politics in Shanghai. This study is an effort to identify environmental communities based on Mary Douglas's grid/group theory and an attempt to comprehend the nature of the dynamic interaction of the private and the public spheres, particularly within the public sphere between the state (the Shanghai government) and ethical social entities (environmental NGOs and other social groups). The contribution of the study lies in its revelation of how the civil realm in Shanghai has developed with a self - capacity to redress environmentally unfriendly policies over the last decade. Fieldwork carried out in 2002 identified a number of environmental Non Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and other social groups in Shanghai. It proved to be possible to highlight the recent emergence of environmental NGOs, including university students based organisations. The study evaluates how these groups have evolved and have survived in the transitional period in alliance with Government Organised NGOs, GONGOs, local communities (shequ), the media, international NGOs and the government. Although these environmental groups now commit themselves to various environmental issues, Shanghai does not have any particular NGO mainly engaged in freshwater issues. It is concluded that a collaboration of GONGOs, NGOs, and various environmental groups alongside international NGOs has led to the formation of a civil force that impacts Shanghai's environmental policy - making.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Environment
  • Political Geography: China, Shanghai
  • Author: Keith Henderson, Alvaro Herrero
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Academy of Political Science
  • Abstract: The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of judicial inefficiency on small businesses in Peru. It is based on the hypothesis that chronic problems in the region's judicial systems have negative consequences on the development of micro, small and medium - sized businesses. Our analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the legal system. Secondly, it investigates the decisions made by SMEs to mitigate the effects of bad court performance. Lastly, it identifies several ways in which judicial inefficiency is transferred to the business sector. The analysis also attempts to quantify the economic impact of judicial inefficiency.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Middle East, South America, Peru