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  • Author: Jack Petri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: I have been asked to present brief comments on the subject of officer career management in a peacetime democracy. As I have spent much of my 30-year military career involved either directly or indirectly in the management of officers in a democracy (mostly in peace, but also in war), I am very happy to be able to share my thoughts and experience with you today.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies
  • Author: Philipp Fluri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Unlike in many other developing countries on the way to democracy, the military plays a more limited role than other security providers, notably the Ministry of the Interior whose forces are much more powerful than the military and have their own armed units. They pose the greater potential threat to security and stability, and thus form a graver potential impediment to economic and political reform than the military. Whereas the economic, social and even some of the defence systems in the post-Soviet republics have gone through reforms, the forces and institutional structures of the Ministries of the Interior have remained more or less the same; change has occurred only in their size which again does not imply larger or more transparent budgets.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Central Asia
  • Author: Philipp Fluri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The countries of the Southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) experienced seventy years of one-party centralized management of the security sector – a heritage they share with all other former Soviet Republics (though precise time spans vary). Independent state-building can be expected to be slow, and it has further been vexed by armed conflicts which are far from being permanently settled and which have led to considerable numbers of IDPs and refugees in Georgia and Azerbaijan. This specific situation has naturally slowed the build-up of security sectors much different from the local post-Soviet replica of the once union-wide complex of security services.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
  • Author: Larry Watts
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: According to March 2002 poll, 60% of the Romanian population believe that their intelligence services – in particular the SRI (Serviciul roman de informatii – domestic security intelligence) and the SIE (Serviciul de informatii externe – foreign intelligence) – have been “transformed into democratic institutions on the western model.” 52% believe that the services are serving national interests in a politically-neutral fashion as opposed to partisan aims of the sitting government (32%), and 55% had a generally “good opinion” concerning their performance. 73% of the population believes that the services do not have too much power, and half of those believe they have too little power, while 74% believe that intelligence specialists remaining from before 1989 – about 15% of the SRI and 18% of the SIE – should be retained. Periodic polling by other agencies regularly rank the SRI just behind the church and the army, and ahead of the government and police, in terms of public trust.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Romania
  • Author: Miroslav Hadzic
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Unwilling to establish the principles of future relations in the joint state, the heads of the Federal, Serbian, and Montenegrin authorities, after being pressured by the European Union (EU), finally signed the Belgrade Agreement. Afterwards, they began to draft the Constitutional Charter of the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro. The entire project is based upon the supposition that this supra-national creation will only have delegated powers agreed to by member states. This infers that the Union will not have original sovereignty; rather Serbia and Montenegro will have it. The implementation of this solution will sever all ties with the federal organization of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and its predecessors, only simplifying matters, as Montenegro has already unilaterally excluded itself from the authority of federal bodies, and in that way, has practically abolished this state.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Serbia, Montenegro
  • Author: Heiner Hänggi
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Good governance of the security sector, when considered from a disarmament perspective, indicates linkages between two principal issue-areas in contemporary international politics, i.e. those of 'security' and 'governance'. These two issue-areas are closely intertwined, contributing to evolving definitions of the terms themselves. During the bipolar period, security was generally defined in 'hard' military terms. Following the end of the Cold War, the concept was broadened to include 'soft' and human security concerns. This was paralleled by a broadening of the concept of confidence-building measures to include, inter alia, the role of security forces in the society. The fundamental principles of good governance include transparency and accountability of the exercise of state power. The implementation of good governance of the security sector (including military, paramilitary, internal security forces, police, border guards, and intelligence services) is a long and often difficult process, and whether this can be achieved is dependent on the capability and willingness of the individual countries.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Peter Gill
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: In the past thirty years throughout Europe, the Americas and more sporadically elsewhere the issue of how to institute some democratic control over security intelligence agencies has steadily permeated the political agenda. There have been two main reasons for this change. In what might be described as the 'old' democracies (North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand) the main impetus for change was scandal involving abuses of power and rights by the agencies. Typically, these gave rise to legislative or judicial enquiries that resulted in new legal and oversight structures for the agencies, some of these achieved by statutes, others by executive orders. The best known examples of these are the U.S. congressional enquiries during 1975-76 (chaired by Senator Church and Representative Pike), Justice McDonald's enquiry into the RCMP Security Service in Canada (1977-81) and Justice Hope's into the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Australia, North America, New Zealand, Western Europe
  • Author: Velizar Shalamanov
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Security Sector Reform (SSR) is an essential part of transformation of the totalitarian states to democratic ones. Security was motive, tool and excuse for the Communist Parties to control totally the state, economy and society at all. As a result security sector - named Armed Forces was extremely large, powerful, secret (un-transparent), under communist party control and separated from society even using all the resources of the society, including young men for 2-3 years.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bulgaria
  • Author: Marie Vlachová, Ladislav Halberštát
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: There is no doubt that the security situation in Europe changed dramatically during the last decade. Whilst total war has disappeared from the inventory of security threats, regional wars with devastating consequences for affected countries, are still topical. With ethnic hostility, organised crime and the world-wide terrorism list of non-military threats has become much wider. A widening gap between rich Western countries and their poor neighbours in Eastern and South Eastern Europe represents another serious danger, as well as do uncontrollable corruption in politically and economically weak regimes, the inability of states to protect their borders efficiently against trafficking, smuggling, illegal immigration and weapons proliferation, including weapons of mass destruction. Information warfare which results in serious damage being caused by attacks on the information systems of developed countries represents another relatively new security threat. Expertise in security political decision-making has become very important, and thus in the future, a shortage of competent specialists in governmental and parliamentary structures could affect states' ability to anticipate threats and make an adequate decision.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe, Czech Republic
  • Author: Hans-Jörg Trenz
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Research Papers Archive
  • Abstract: The debate about the legitimacy of the EU and the possibilities of its democratisation has so far only rarely addressed the question of the role of the media. An instrumental approach prevails towards the media acknowledging that the so-called gap between the EU and its citizens is grounded in a communication deficit and that the EU should therefore strive towards a higher legitimacy in terms of public accountability, openness and participation, in other words of democracy. The paper discusses these technical aspects of public-sphere building from above in relation to the systematic constraints on mediatisation that result from the inertia of the existing (national) media spheres. On the basis of this, an alternative understanding of mediatisation and its ambivalent effects on the legitimacy of the EU will be developed. The proposal is that European public sphere research should focus on the more active role of the media as an independent variable that affects institutional choices and processes. Empirical results from comparative content analyses are discussed, which illustrate to what extent media have become an enabling and/or constraining factor of European integration..
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Frederic Mishkin, Guillermo Calvo
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries. This suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable, and more on these deeper institutional arrangements. A focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
  • Topic: International Relations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Alistair Millar, Morten Bremer Maerli
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in, Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO, Climate Change, Government, Nuclear Weapons
  • Author: Alistair Millar
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Senate voted on May 20th to repeal a decade-long ban on researching the development of new, smaller nuclear weapons. The decision was a dangerous step in the wrong direction, signaling to the world that the United States will be increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons. According to Senator John Kyl, "In this new world, there could well be reason to have these weapons." But what reason could there be for developing and using nuclear weapons? Resuming research and development of new nuclear weapons will jeopardize, not enhance U.S. security.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, America, North Korea
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The United States, the United Kingdom, and other nations claim that Iraq poses an imminent threat to international security because it has weapons of mass destruction and operational connections to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted in his presentation to the Security Council on 5 February that Iraq has made no effort to disarm and is concealing efforts to redevelop weapons of mass destruction. Powell restated old allegations that the United States had made prior to the 8 November passage of Resolution 1441. He presented new intelligence about Iraqi efforts to conceal its weapons capabilities, and he reiterated previous information about the likely existence of chemical and biological agents from the 1990s, but he did not prove that there is a grave new threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Nor did he show a link between Iraq and September 11, or an operational connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber, Karl Shelly
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The U.S. and other governments contend that the United Nations disarmament process in Iraq is not working, but an objective analysis shows that significant steps toward compliance have occurred. This report lists Iraqi efforts to cooperate with UN inspections while also identifying areas of inadequate compliance. The report also reviews the compliance mandates of Security Council Resolution 1441, notes whether Iraq has complied, and assesses Iraq's overall level of compliance.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: William D. Hartung
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: Secretary of State Powell misrepresented the alleged terrorist training camp in northern Iraqi.Powell claimed and presented a photograph showing that a "terrorist poison and explosives factory" is located in Khurmal, a Kurdish village near the Iranian border. Local Kurdish officials allied with the United States told the New York Times that no such camp exists at that location. A senior official of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which receives financial assistance from the United States, said he had no information about the compound. A local administrator for the group that controls Khurmal said Powell's claim was "not true."
  • Topic: Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: After two months of increasingly intensive inspection activity, UN weapons monitors in Iraq, by their own account, have achieved considerable progress in establishing the disarmament process mandated in Security Council Resolution 1441 (2002). During his 27 January update to the Security Council, UN inspections chief Dr. Hans Blix reported that "Iraq has on the whole cooperated rather well so far" with UN inspectors. "It would appear from our experience so far that Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access." Although Baghdad has not fully disclosed its weapons activities as required by UN resolutions, and many unanswered questions remain, weapons inspectors have established an effective disarmament verification system in Iraq. They have asked for the "unified resolve" of the Security Council to support an ongoing inspection process. In contrast with the experience of UN weapons monitors during the early 1990s, the inspectors with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have received unfettered access to Iraqi facilities and have been able to conduct more than 350 on-site inspections. They are employing the world's most advanced technology for detecting nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and are installing an ongoing monitoring system that will provide permanent surveillance of Iraq's weapons activities.
  • Topic: United Nations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Richard Narich
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: In the second part of the 20th century, the world's attention focused twice on Latin America, first during the Cuban crisis in 1962 and then during the conflicts in Central America in the Eighties and Nineties. The situation there had a direct impact on the general balance of the planet. It was a hot spot. Today this region is not on the agenda anymore: it no longer represents a global threat in terms of security.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Alan Gorowitz
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The beginning months of 2003 have witnessed historic moments in the evolution of the policies and visions of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Southeast Europe. On March 30, 2003, NATO forces handed over responsibility for peacekeeping operations in Macedonia to a European Un i o n - l e d operation. Dubbed Operation Concordia, this operation marked an important victory toward harmonizing the effort s of the EU and NATO. Almost simultaneously, many countries of Southeast Europe were taking important steps toward integration into European structures: Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovenia signed the protocols for Accession to NATO in March 2003. Finally, many European leaders were pointing to the need for the EU to more fully develop its European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) in order to better cope with world events .
  • Topic: Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Neva Goodwin
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: The concept of capital has a number of different meanings. It is useful to differentiate between five kinds of capital: financial, natural, produced, human, and social. All are stocks that have the capacity to produce flows of economically desirable outputs. The maintenance of all five kinds of capital is essential for the sustainability of economic development.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements
  • Author: Kevin Gallagher, Robin Taylor
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Although there is a burgeoning literature on the effects of international trade on the environment, relatively little work has been done on where trade most directly effects the environment: the transportation sector. This article shows how international trade is affecting criteria air pollution emissions in the United States' shipping sector. Recent work has shown that cargo ships have been long overlooked regarding their contribution to air pollution. Indeed, ship emissions have recently been deemed "the last unregulated source of traditional air pollutants."Air pollution from ships has a number of significant local, national, and global environmental effects. Building on past studies, we examine the economic costs of this increasing and unregulated form of environmental damage. We find that total emissions from ships are largely increasing due to the increase in foreign commerce (or international trade). We analyze the period 1993 to 2001 and find that the economic costs of SO2 pollution during the period are estimated to be $1.1 billion or $126 million per year. For NOx emissions the costs are $3.7 billion over the entire period or $412 million per year. Because foreign trade is driving the growth in U.S. shipping, we also estimate the effect of the Uruguay Round on emissions. Separating out the effects of global trade agreements reveals that the trade agreement- led emissions amount to $460 million for SO2 between 1993 and 2001, or $51 million per year. For NOx they are $1.2 billion for the whole period or $144 million per year. Without adequate policy responses, we predict that these trends and costs will continue to rise with trade flows into the future
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America
  • Author: Kevin Gallagher, Francisco Aguayo
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries. More specifically, delinking energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole. Recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the Chinese economy, which fell by 55 percent between 1975 and 1995 (Sinton and Fridley, 2000). Do other developing economies follow similar trajectories?
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America
  • Author: Frank Ackerman, Kevin Gallagher, Timothy Wise, Luke Ney, Regina Flores
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had a profound impact on corn trade between the United States and Mexico. Negotiated tariff reductions and the Mexican government's decision not to charge some tariffs to which it was entitled resulted in a doubling of US corn exports to Mexico. This paper examines the environmental implications of this change on both sides of the border.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America, Mexico
  • Author: David Dapice
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: In this paper, an extensive report on the economy of Myanmar prepared in 1998 is supplemented by more recent reports as of fall 2002 (included as appendices).
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Neva Goodwin, Jonathan Harris
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Macroeconomic theory and policy are strongly based on the assumption that economic growth is a fundamental goal. The environmental realities of the twenty- first century compel a reassessment of macro theory in terms of the impact of current growth patterns on planetary ecosystems.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Mariano Torcal
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on the analysis of political disaffection. After discussing and defining this notion, the article shows that disaffection affects more widely, though not exclusively, third-wave democracies. The close link between levels of disaffection and the history of democratization in each country explains its higher incidence among new democracies. For this very reason, political disaffection could also run high among more established democracies. However, regardless of its incidence in each particular country, political disaffection reveals a distinctive nature in new democracies because of the absence of a democratic past in many of these cases. Thus, disaffection constitutes a key element to explain the lower propensity of citizens of new democracies to participate in every dimension of political activity.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gretchen Helmke, Steven Levitsky
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: During the 1990s, comparative research on political institutions focused primarily on formal rules. Yet recent studies suggest that an exclusive focus on formal rules is often insufficient, and that informal institutions, ranging from bureaucratic and legislative norms to clientelism and patrimonialism, often have a profound—and systematic—effect on political outcomes. Neglecting these informal institutions thus risks missing many of the “real” incentives and constraints that underlie political behavior. This article seeks to move informal institutions from the margins to the mainstream of comparative politics research. It develops an initial framework for studying informal institutions and, importantly, integrating them into comparative institutional analysis. In the conceptual realm, the article attempts to clarify what is meant by “informal institution” and then develops a typology of four patterns of formal-informal institutional interaction: complementary, accommodating, competing, and substitutive. In the theoretical realm, the article examines two issues that have been largely unexplored in the literature on informal institutions: the question of why and how informal institutions emerge, and the sources of informal institutions stability and change. A final section explores some of the practical challenges inherent in research on informal institutions, including issues of identification, measurement, and comparison.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Author: Iván Orozco
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This essay explores the relationships between vengeance, justice and reconciliation in contexts of war and transitions towards democracy, with a special emphasis and interest on the Colombian situation. It aims at easing, at least partly, the tensions facing peace makers and human rights activists who deal with the issue of “impunity” for atrocious crimes perpetrated by the state and other political organizations. It does so by distinguishing between vertical and horizontal processes of victimization and by distributing functions between peace makers and human rights activists in accord with this distinction. Based upon the premise that transitional Justice always entails a compromise between punishment, truth and reconciliation, the paper argues for a certain priority of punishment in contexts of vertical victimization and for a partial precedence of reconciliation in contexts of horizontal victimization. The notion of “gray areas” where the distinction between victims and perpetrators, best represented by certain kinds of “collaborators” and, “avengers” collapses, lies at the heart of the logics of forgiveness and reconciliation. After characterizing the Colombian conflict as a case of horizontal victimization—i.e., symmetric barbarism—the paper proposes a model of transitional justice for Colombia built on the primacy of truth and forgiveness for the inhabitants of gray zones and punishment for the engineers and managers of barbarism.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Colombia, South America
  • Author: Benito Nacif
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Without a majority in the Congress, the president's party looses the ability to direct policy change. With only one-third of the vote, the president's party can prevent any initiative from turning into law. Individual opposition parties gain influence under divided government but lack the power to veto policy change. Contrary to what critics of Presidentialism have argued, political parties in presidential regimes do not lack in incentives to cooperate and build policymaking coalitions. Coalition building depends on the potential gains of cooperation that both the president's party and the opposition parties can capture if they modify the status quo. Two sufficient conditions for coalition building can be identified: an extreme position of the status quo, and the location of the president's party at the median position. This explains law change and the size of lawmaking coalitions under divided government in Mexico.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: North America, Mexico
  • Author: Edward Schatz
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Capital relocation (i.e., the physical move of the central state apparatus from one location to another) is an unusual tool for nation and state building. Yet, it is used more frequently than we might expect. Thus, when Kazakhstan shifted its capital city in 1997 from Almaty to Astana the move was unique in that post-Soviet region, but not as uncommon in other post-colonial cases. This paper examines the move of the capital in Kazakhstan suggests that this move was designed to address particularly acute nation-and state-building challenges. If the Kazakhstan experience seems strange in de-Sovietization, this tells us much about the different nature of post-Soviet space versus other post-colonial contexts. The relative in frequency of capital moves implies that the challenges of nation and state building in the ex-USSR—as daunting as they have proved to be—are generally not as acute as in those of other post-colonial contexts.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan
  • Author: Francisco Zapata
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Economic adjustment policies, trade liberalization, privatization of State enterprise and transformation of labor markets and labor market institutions relate to a process of transition between a model of import substitution industrialization and a "new economic model" characterized by the transnationalization of Latin American internal markets. All these elements contribute to change the premises of the organization of unions and to weaken their role in the negotiation of salaries and working conditions, their intervention in the regulation of employment and their participation in the administration of social security and health benefits. On the basis of the cases of Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the presentation will provide a context in which to pose the question of the crisis of Latin American labor and examine some of the alternatives that are available for trade unions in the new economic conditions.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Central America, North America, Mexico, Chile
  • Author: Lawrence Brunner, Stephen M. Colarelli
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Independent Institute
  • Abstract: The unemployment compensation system in the United States is out of date and in trouble. The system has four fundamental problems: (1) during recessions, it often cannot meet its financial obligations without federal aid or deficit spending; (2) it is out of step with the structural and cultural realities of the modern workforce; (3) it encourages layoffs and unemployment; and (4) it operates in isolation from other programs related to employment and financial security. We propose an alternative unemployment policy based on the individual unemployment account (IUA). The IUA would be a mandatory and portable individual trust to which the employer and employee contributed. It shifts control and responsibility from the employer and the state government to the employer and the employee, and it is compatible with the realities of a twenty-first-century economy. We begin by providing an overview of how the current unemployment insurance system works and discussing its problems. We then describe an alternative unemployment policy based on IUAs and discuss the benefits of such a policy.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The evolution of a European space policy is encouraged by the recent EU decision to develop the Galileo project. This decision confirms the willingness to pursue a policy in the space technologies that goes beyond the national level, even if national visions are still predominant. A new security concept is emerging. The evolution of the foreign, security and defense policy (CFSP, ESDP) and the protection of population requires integrated approach.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Roberto Aliboni
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: This paper deals with the impact of the Iraqi crisis on Mediterranean dynamics. Four such dynamics are taken into consideration, assuming their particular significance: (a) the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and, more broadly, the opposition between Israel and the Arab-Muslim countries; (b) the stability of regional regimes and their transition to democracy; (c) the development of the EU Mediterranean policies and their relevance in the region; (d) Turkey's national and regional interests.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: This document is intended to: highlight the main achievements of the Constitutional Treaty drafted by the European Convention which should be fully endorsed by the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC); emphasise some critical points of the Draft Constitutional Treaty that need to be revised to ensure an effective functioning of the European Union, avoid the risk of a decision-making paralysis and make possible future constitutional adaptations; suggest further modifications to the Draft Constitutional Treaty which appear necessary for a truly, effective constitutional reform of the Union.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Italy
  • Author: Robert Muggah
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: There is considerable disagreement in academic and policy circles about what precisely constitutes internal displacement and resettlement – when it begins and ends, what kinds of rights to protection and assistance such people are entitled to, how it can be measured and understood, and who should be responsible for managing it.
  • Topic: Development, Human Welfare, Migration
  • Author: Heiko Wimmen
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: HW: Professor Peled, during the two years of Ariel Sharon's tenure as prime minister, Israel has seen a steep economic decline, and a rapidly deteriorating security situation. Yet Mr. Sharon enjoys more support than any Israeli head of government for a long time. What do you make of this paradox?
  • Topic: Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Burhan Ghalioun
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The failure to discover any traceable evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq doubtlessly creates a serious embarrassment for the American administration. But the US never made much of an effort to conceal that the purported existence of WMDs in Iraq was only a pretext employed to obtain the consent of some of its bigger allies to its global strategic outlook, and the acquiescence of smaller nations to its regional plans. The real objective behind the US strike against Iraq was not the destruction of WMDs – Iraq in its pre-war state was ill equipped to produce WMDs anyway – but to topple the regime of President Saddam Hussein. The Bush administration also clearly considered regime change to be more than a strategic aim in itself, but rather a prelude to a general makeover of the region, in the course of which many local regimes would have to change or be changed according to its strategic vision. Secretary of State Colin Powell made this abundantly clear when, in December 2002, he promised the peoples of the region a concerted effort on behalf of the US to achieve democratic change, fight unemployment and work for the improvement of women's position in society.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Robert Muggah
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The availability and misuse of small arms and light weapons is like a disease – a symptom and an outcome of human insecurity. Investments in improving security – a precondition of development – are strongly correlated with reductions in violence and poverty. But the development community has yet to fully wake-up to the wide-ranging effects of small arms. The issue is often treated as somebody else's problem, as too big and complex and therefore not amenable to a developmental response. But the effects are preventable. A concerted effort on the part of the development community to prevent and treat this veritable epidemic could yield substantial developmental dividends.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development
  • Author: Haider K. Nizamani
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The Pakistani society is rid with fissures on almost every issue and aspect concerning the nature of political system, nation-building, the meaning of the national identity and the means to ensure it. When it comes to the nuclear issue mid this cacophony and chaos, General Pervez Musharraf asserts that there is complete national consensus on Pakistan's nuclear program. Leaders of Jamaat-E-Islami, the most vocal political party in espousing the cause of nuclear Pakistan, argue that barring few individuals who are against nuclear weapons, the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis consider nuclear weapons essential for the country's security. Is there really a consensus in Pakistan regarding the nuclear option? Have people thought about their country's nuclear weapons program and policy? Have they thought about the likely costs of their country's nuclear program? Do they know who is in the control of the country's nuclear infrastructure? Such questions address the perceptual, doctrinal, command and control, and future dimensions of Pakistani nuclear weapons and policy.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Brazil
  • Author: Chung-in Moon
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The North Korean problem is composed of two inter-related issues, namely nuclear weapons and missiles. The current quasi-crisis on the Korean peninsula has resulted mainly from disputes over North Korea's nuclear weapons development that involves three dimensions. The first dimension is the suspicion on its past possession of nuclear warheads (one or two) before the signing of the Geneva Agreed Framework (Agreed Framework) in 1994. The second one centers on present nuclear issues related to reprocessing of 8,000 spent fuel rods stored in water pond and manufacturing and exports of plutonium as well as production of additional nuclear warheads, which were previously frozen by the 1994 Agreed Framework. The third dimension is the future nuclear problem associated with the development of highly enriched uranium (HEU) program. The United States claims that North Korea admitted its existence during its special envoy, James Kelly's visit to Pyongyang in October 2002.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Geneva, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: Rajesh Basrur
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The central question before us is whether it is appropriate for South Asians to learn from the US-Soviet experience of the Cold War. This raises other questions: Are the two sets of relationships comparable? Is there in South Asia a "cold war" essentially similar to the Cold War? Should the theoretical lenses we use for both sets be the same? Can we learn from the one about the other? Is the thinking and practice relating to nuclear weapons in the two sets comparable?
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Joseph C. Folio
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: Paul G. Frost
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises in Spring 2003 took on the topic, "The Unintended Consequences of an Expanded U.S. Military Presence in the Muslim World", holding its first meeting March 18, literally on the eve of war against Iraq. Its second meeting was held May 27, after the war ended, and as the difficulties of post-war reconstruction were becoming clearer. Core members and area/subject experts met to examine benefits and drawbacks, as well as scenarios that could stem from an expanded American military presence in the Middle East, South Asia and North Africa.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, South Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Gaza
  • Author: Barbara F. Walter
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Between 1940 and 1996, governments were seventy percent less likely to negotiate with rebels seeking independence or greater territorial autonomy than with rebels seeking any other goal. Current theories suggest that this is due to the economic, strategic, or psychological value of territory under dispute. I argue that a government's decision to negotiate has more to do with the signal the government wishes to send to future challengers than with any specific characteristics of the land in question. If the government believes it could face multiple separatist challenges in the future, it will invest in a reputation for toughness now rather than face additional challengers down the road. If the government knows it will face such a challenge only once, there is less reason to invest in a reputation and negotiation is likely to result. An analysis of all self-determination movements between 1940 and 2000 demonstrates that governments of multiethnic states are far less likely to negotiate than are governments that preside over more homogenous populations.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Author: Daniel Byman
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: The Bush administration entered office skeptical of using the U.S. military to build democracy. Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's National Security Advisor, wrote before the election that: "The President must remember that the military is a special instrument. It is lethal, and it is meant to be. It is not a civilian police force. It is not a political referee. And it is most certainly not designed to build a civilian society." Despite this skepticism, policing, building a civilian society, and other tasks inherent to democratization were quickly thrust upon the Bush administration. Even before the fall of the Taliban, the United States and its allies began trying to shape a new government to take power in Kabul. And today, as the United States and its allies move to topple Saddam's regime, they are grappling with how to create a stable and democratic future for Iraq.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Taliban, Kabul
  • Author: S. Merrett
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: The Editor of Water International published in the March 2003 issue a paper by Stephen Merrett containing a critique of the “virtual water” concept as well as replies by Tony Allan and Christopher Lant. This discussion paper is a rejoinder to Allan and Lant that also raises the stakes by considering the relation of “virtual water” to an emerging Kyoto consensus on water resources management.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Environment, International Law
  • Author: Seungho Lee
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
  • Abstract: This chapter analyses the development in the civil realm of environmental politics in Shanghai. This study is an effort to identify environmental communities based on Mary Douglas's grid/group theory and an attempt to comprehend the nature of the dynamic interaction of the private and the public spheres, particularly within the public sphere between the state (the Shanghai government) and ethical social entities (environmental NGOs and other social groups). The contribution of the study lies in its revelation of how the civil realm in Shanghai has developed with a self - capacity to redress environmentally unfriendly policies over the last decade. Fieldwork carried out in 2002 identified a number of environmental Non Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and other social groups in Shanghai. It proved to be possible to highlight the recent emergence of environmental NGOs, including university students based organisations. The study evaluates how these groups have evolved and have survived in the transitional period in alliance with Government Organised NGOs, GONGOs, local communities (shequ), the media, international NGOs and the government. Although these environmental groups now commit themselves to various environmental issues, Shanghai does not have any particular NGO mainly engaged in freshwater issues. It is concluded that a collaboration of GONGOs, NGOs, and various environmental groups alongside international NGOs has led to the formation of a civil force that impacts Shanghai's environmental policy - making.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Environment
  • Political Geography: China, Shanghai
  • Author: Keith Henderson, Alvaro Herrero
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Academy of Political Science
  • Abstract: The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of judicial inefficiency on small businesses in Peru. It is based on the hypothesis that chronic problems in the region's judicial systems have negative consequences on the development of micro, small and medium - sized businesses. Our analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the legal system. Secondly, it investigates the decisions made by SMEs to mitigate the effects of bad court performance. Lastly, it identifies several ways in which judicial inefficiency is transferred to the business sector. The analysis also attempts to quantify the economic impact of judicial inefficiency.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Middle East, South America, Peru
  • Author: Simon Chesterman
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: Transitional administrations represent the most complex operations attempted by the United Nations. The missions in Kosovo (1999—) and East Timor (1999–2002) are commonly seen as unique in the history of the United Nations. But they may also be seen as the latest in a series of operations that have involved the United Nations in 'state-building' activities, in which it has attempted to develop the institutions of government by assuming some or all of those sovereign powers on a temporary basis. Viewed in light of earlier UN operations, such as those in Namibia (1989–1990), Cambodia (1992–1993), and Eastern Slavonia (1996–1998), the idea that these exceptional circumstances may not recur is somewhat disingenuous. The need for policy research in this area was brought into sharp focus by the weighty but vague responsibilities assigned to the United Nations in Afghanistan (2002—) and its contested role in Iraq (2003—).
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Government, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Kosovo, Cambodia, Namibia, Eastern Slavonia
  • Author: Heiko Nitzschke, Karen Ballentine
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: This policy report provides a synopsis of the key findings from case studies on the political economy of armed intra-state conflicts, commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil wars (EAC W ). These findings offer lessons for improved policies for conflict prevention and resolution. Combatants' incentives for self-enrichment and/ or opportunities for insurgent mobilization created by access to natural and financial resources were neither the primary nor sole cause of the separatist and non-separatist conflicts analyzed. Nevertheless, extensive combatant self-financing complicated and prolonged hostilities, in some cases creating serious impediments to their resolu-tion. In all cases, however, these factors interacted to varying degrees with long-standing socio-economic and political grievances, inter-ethnic disputes, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable systems of governance. Conflict analysis should avoid "resource reductionist" models in favor of comprehensive approaches that not only account for the complex interrelationship between economic and political dynamics, but also incorporate the political economy of both rebellion and state failure. Improved understanding is required of the role that combatant access to resources can play in shaping a permissive opportunity structure for separatist and non-separatist conflicts relative to other socio-political factors. Different resource endowments affect different sorts of conflicts and benefit combatant parties in distinct ways, depending, inter alia, on the mode of exploitation and how proceeds are managed by the state. "Lootable" resources, such as alluvial diamonds and illegal narcotics are more likely to be implicated in non-separatist insurgencies. They prolong conflict by benefiting rebels and conflict-dependent civilians, compromising battle disci-pline, and by multiplying the number of peace spoilers. "Unlootable" resources, such as oil, gas, and deep-shaft mineral deposits tend to be associ-ated with separatist conflicts, which are often caused by ethno-political grievances over inequitable resource revenue-sharing and exclusionary government policies. Given the importance of lootable natural resources and easily captured diaspora remittances in sustaining many of today's armed conflicts, improved international regulatory efforts to curtail these resource flows are both warranted and necessary. Commodity control regimes need to be strengthened and also complemented by more comprehensive efforts that address the financial flows connected with those resources. However, even the most robust resource control regimes are unlikely to have a decisive or even fully positive impact. Where conflicts are motivated by a mix of political, security, ethnic, and economic factors, curtailing resource flows to combatants may weaken their military capacity but not their resolve to continue fighting. In addition, regulatory regimes may have adverse humanitarian effects by increasing civilian predation by rebels or by stifling civilian incomes. When designing and implementing regulatory regimes, policy-makers need to distinguish between those who exploit armed conflict for profit and power and those who participate in war economies to sustain their civilian livelihoods. The offer of "economic peace dividends" may co-opt belligerents into ceasefires or more formal peace processes. Critically, however, economic inducements are unlikely to achieve these results in the absence of a credible military threat and may risk the creation of "negative peace," where justice and sustainability are deeply compromised and the threat of renewed conflict remains high. Policy-makers need to identify and adequately integrate economic incentives of combatants into a wider set of political and strategic inducements for conflict resolution and peace-building. Today's insurgents increasingly engage in illegal economic activities either directly or through links with international criminal networks. However, insurgency groups have not equivocally transformed into mere criminal organizations as they retain- albeit to varying degrees- military and political goals. While improved interdiction and law enforcement are important policy tools, casting rebellion as a criminal rather than a political phenomenon may risk mischaracterizing legitimate grievances, thereby foreclosing opportu-nities for negotiated resolution, and may lend de facto legitimacy to state actors, regardless of their behavior and role in the conflict. Poor economic governance and state weakness are the critical mediating factors between resource abundance and vulnerability to armed conflict; the first engenders popular grievances, the second makes separatist and non-separatist insurgencies politically and militarily feasible. Policy responses need to focus on structural conflict prevention efforts by, inter alia, designing and supporting tools and strategies for more effective, equitable, and accountable systems of resource management, complemented by longer-term strategies of economic diversifica-tion and poverty reduction. Contemporary intra-state conflicts have strong regional and even global linkages. By increasing the number of potential war profiteers and peace-spoilers and multiplying the points of conflict, these broader dimensions not only affect the character and duration of hostilities, but also complicate the prospects for conflict resolution and post-conflict stability. Both conflict analysis and policymaking need to address these regional dimensions by strengthening the economic management capacities of formal regional organi-zations and ad hoc alliances, complementing- and thus strengthening- national and global conflict management strategies.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Economy
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: The International Peace Academy (IPA), in collaboration with and thanks to generous support from the Permanent Mission of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, convened a high-level retreat on May 16-17 entitled From Promise to Practice: Revitalizing the General Assembly for the New Millennium. The retreat brought together, in an informal setting, approximately twenty-five permanent representatives and a very few deputy permanent representatives in addition to a member of the Secretariat and a key outside expert respectively over dinner and one full day of deliberations at the Greentree Estate in Manhasset, New York.
  • Topic: International Organization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: New York
  • Author: Karin Wermester, Chandra Lekha Sriram
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: While the promise of conflict prevention has risen to the fore of international policy agenda since the end of the 1990s, its practice and effectivenes remain elusive. Following in the footsteps of peacebuilding, conflict prevention is a loose conceptual framework for the increasingly broad range of actors engaged in conflict-affected zones. The concept of conflict prevention expands the scope of peacebuilding temporally and spatially, calling for the early prevention of violent conflict and the prevention of further outbreaks through "structural" as well as "operational" initiatives. It promises cross-cutting approaches to mitigate the sources of potential conflict rather than merely the symptoms at arguably a lesser cost and with great potential for lasting peace than other forms of intervention. The challenge, of course, is that violent conflict can be hard to predict, especially in the early phases when efforts to prevent its escalation might be most valuable. More, it is harder to prevent effectively, and further to demonstrate that preventive initiatives have been successful.
  • Topic: International Organization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Ian Anthony
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: While states are responsible for honouring any commitments to one another that they make, it has become obvious that they are not always capable of doing so. Where the failure to implement agreed undertakings reflects a lack of financial or technical capacity rather than a deliberate effort to undermine the terms of an agreement it is preferable for all parties to offer assistance rather than criticism and punishment. During the period after the end of the cold war a new type of international cooperation has appeared as states have been willing to render practical assistance to one another in order to reduce common threats. In broad terms military activities have been of three types: facilitating the dismantlement and destruction of weapons; the establishment of a safe and secure chain of custody over weapons or other items; and demilitarization and conversion projects.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gerrard Quille, Stephen Pullinger
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: This is the first in a series of Discussion and Policy Papers - published by ISIS Europe and Saferworld - that will trace, analyse and contribute towards developments in the European Union's emerging strategy against the proliferation of weapons and materials of mass destruction (WMD). This first paper has been written for circulation at the EU's Inter - Parliamentary Conference on the 'Non - proliferation and Disarmament Co - operation Initiative' within the framework of the G8 'Global Partnership against Materials and Weapons of Mass Destruction', launched in Kananaskis, Canada in July 2002. The authors welcome the initiative by the European Commission to promote Parliamentary interest in this important area of non - proliferation.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe, Canada
  • Author: Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: In this first conference session speakers addressed the ways in which structural reforms could improve the integration and accountability of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The draft constitution then under discussion at the European Convention was evaluated and the session aimed to identify further reforms that could be enacted in order to improve the integration and accountability of EU action in foreign affairs, security and defence.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Holger Anders
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: Illicit trafficking and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW)1pose serious threats to international peace and security. SALW proliferation facilitates and fuels violent conflicts, causes grave human suffering and contributes to armed banditry and crime. Moreover, the excessive availability of SALW on licit and black markets hinders conflict resolution and greatly undermines sustainable development.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Author: Natalie Pauwels
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: The role that the availability of lucrative natural resources including gem stones, minerals and timber plays in the incidence of violent conflict in several countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, is the subject of significant policy debate and academic research. Indeed, it is generally recognised that the trade in certain commodities has played a role in the continuation of several wars, providing resources to both rebels and governments to finance their military campaigns.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Environment, War
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: The motivating premise of this study is that nations cannot wage war responsibly or intelligently without careful attention to its costs. The broader context in which "Operation Iraqi Freedom" was conducted -- that is, the campaign against terrorism -- makes attention to the repercussions of war even more urgent. Effective action against terrorism depends in fair part on an effort to win hearts and minds. Success in this effort turns significantly on issues of legitimacy and responsible action, especially with regard to the use of force. And the first principle of responsible action is to take account of its effects.
  • Topic: Human Welfare, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Carl Conetta
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: This report analyzes an important aspect of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF): the interdiction of Iraqi ground units by coalition air forces. Based on air campaign statistics, observations from the field, and the experience of past air campaigns, the report assesses the likely impact (in terms of combatant casualties) of coalition air attacks on the Iraqi army in the field. Our approach is a comparative one that views the OIF air interdiction campaign in light of the experience of the 1991 Gulf War. Among the issues we explore is the contribution of coalition air power to the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi Republican Guard and regular army.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Charles Knight, Melissa Murphy
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Project on Defense Alternatives
  • Abstract: This briefing memo addresses trends in the incidence of terror in the post-Cold War period by comparing the number of international terror attacks on American interests with the overall number of terror attacks worldwide. We present the data year by year and as three year moving averages. We use data from the U.S. Department of State which is frequently cited as authoritative and usefully summarizes annual statistics.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Fred Dallmayr
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: In the teeth of its modern despisers, religion has made a comeback in our time — for good or ill. Too often, the negative side is in the limelight. What Gilles Kepel has called the “revenge of God” on inspection usually turns out to be the ill will and vengefulness of religious communities and their leaders. The litany of contemporary religious clashes — or conflicts in good part spawned by religious motives — is long and depressing: Christians pitted against Muslims in Africa and the Balkans; Jews against Palestinians in the Near East; Hindus against Muslims in India and Kashmir; Hindus against Buddhists in Sri Lank, not to forget the old feud between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Globalization, Peace Studies, Religion
  • Political Geography: Africa, India, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Palestine, Balkans, North Ireland
  • Author: Daniel R. Lynch
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
  • Abstract: There is no shortage of pronouncements that we are now at a key point in history. This critical moment has four defining characteristics: industrialization, the explosion in scientific and technical knowledge, globalization, and a missing emphasis on the public good.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Human Rights First
  • Abstract: This report examines a wide range of actions taken by the United States government over the last six months in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. It updates our report entitled “A Year of Loss” published in September 2002, on the first anniversary of the attacks.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, National Security
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Hsien-Hen Lu, Julian Palmer, Younghwan Song, Mary Clare Lennon, J. Lawrence Aber
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: By analyzing data from the Current Population Survey March Supplements, Living at the Edge explores the following questions about children in low-income families in the United States: What are the overall changes in the low-income and poverty rates for children over the past quarter century? How has the population of children in low-income families changed over the past decade? Which children are more likel to live in low-income famlies? How have changes in parental employment status affected the likelihood children living in low-income families? What are the state by state variations in child low-income and poverty rates, and how have these changed in the last decade? How does a more inclusive definition of family income and expenses affect our understanding of the poverty and near-poverty rates of children in low-income families?
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Gilbert Rozman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Russia needs to open the Russian Far East for regional integration and make use of its dynamism and vast natural resources. Initiatives of the past decade have demonstrated great sensitivity to the dangers of foreign presence, but little forward thinking on their positive contributions. Putin has advanced beyond Yeltsin, but there is still no vision of regionalism. A reorientation of Sino-Russian relations from strategic goals associated with multipolarity to economic cooperation in a multilateral context offers hope that a new approach is coming. Under the umbrella of globalization including closer relations with the U.S., Putin can more easily pursue regional integration as well. In 2002-03, the nuclear standoff between North Korea and the U.S. put regionalism on hold, while energy security achieved a new profile that gave Putin the opportunity to weigh offers from China, Japan, and the U.S., while asserting control over oligarch Mikhail Khodorovsky and his oil behemoth Yukos. Clearly, Putin planned to take firm charge of managing all dimensions of regionalism, but it was less clear if he would encourage market forces.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Japan, China, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Paul T. Christensen
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Since the middle of the Gorbachev period, much has been written about the (re)emergence of civil society and the rapid appearance of social organizations in Russia and throughout the post-communist world. Of late, however, society and social organizations appear mainly as footnotes to the discussions of politics in the Russian Federation. This is not particularly surprising, given continuing struggles over “reform,” the ongoing war in Chechnya, the international community's preoccupation with terrorism, and not least given the absence of any dramatic social unrest or “mobilization from below.” This absence of discussion about society, however, is troubling for those interested in self-governance in Russia. Not only does this absence reflect the weak and threatened societal foundations for such governance, it also highlights the general lack of attention given to social conditions in Russia—by the Russian state, other states in the international system, and international institutions alike. Scholars who are concerned with social empowerment and democratization in the post-communist world have repeatedly noted the difficulty that civil society faces in carving out a space for itself across the region. Boris Kagarlitksy barely exaggerates when he writes that civil society in Russia “perished even before it had managed to appear,” and there is little doubt that Russian society remains largely excluded from politics.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Chechnya
  • Author: Andrei Ryabov
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Not too long ago, the analysts studying the development of the Russian political process under Vladimir Putin attached foremost attention to efforts aimed to formulate the political priorities of Russia's second president and to ascertain his vision of the way the nation should develop. The actions and decisions made by Putin were analyzed primarily from that angle. For a long time, that way of analyzing today's Russian politics was regarded as perfectly operational: it is common knowledge that the political system in Russia is monocentric and the president is the principal political agent whose position largely determines the character and the thrust of political change. However, the two years that have elapsed since Putin's rise to power have compelled many experts to revise their attitudes. The reason is that despite the occasional changes in the system of government institutions made by the second president of the Russian Federation and his announcement of a continued market-oriented reform, what lies ahead remains uncertain. There are still doubts about the firmness of the stabilization attained under Putin, while the influence wielded by most of the key Russian political actors who arose back in Yeltsin's times has not diminished whatsoever. In this connection it has even been said that, in the final analysis, Putin will have to return to the policy pursued by his predecessor.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Stefani Hoffman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The Greek term “diaspora” was first applied to the dispersion and settlement of the Jews outside of ancient Palestine. Subsequently, the term was extended to the Greek and Armenian dispersion and to other migratory phenomena, although scholars continue to refer back to the original meaning. Indeed, particularly since the fall of the Soviet bloc and the acceleration of globalization processes, governmental bodies, NGOs, and academic institutions have devoted considerable attention to defining and studying the various migratory processes and the effects of clusters of immigrant populations on countries in the developed world.
  • Topic: Migration
  • Political Geography: Russia, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, Palestine
  • Author: John B. Dunlop
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: One perceptive observer of the Russian political scene, Francoise Thom, noted as far back as 1994 that fascism, and especially its “Eurasianist” variant, was already at that time displacing Russian nationalism among statist Russian elites as a post-communist “Russian Idea,” especially in the foreign policy sphere. “The weakness of Russian nationalists,” she emphasized, “stems from their inability to clearly situate Russian frontiers. Euras[ianism] brings an ideological foundation for post-Soviet imperialism.”
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Eurasia
  • Author: Joshua Handler
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The history of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses is long and controversial. From the late 1990s and until today, what to do about missile defenses and the 1972 ABM Treaty has been one of the central problems in U.S.-Russian relations. Several times the United States and Russia appeared to have been on the verge of a new Cold War over this question. This paper reviews the history of the missile defense debate and offers some observations on a way forward. On balance, it may be best for the international community to downplay the Bush administration's missile defense plans and instead focus on promoting diplomatic solutions to the missile proliferation problem. Moreover, the international community should examine the possibilities of banning long-range ballistic missiles. This would make U.S. plans for a national missile defense (NMD) redundant, while at the same time improving international security in general.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Alexei Malashenko
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Despite the interest for Islam in Russia, for the Islamic factor in the country's domestic and foreign policy, and despite the growing number of publications on the subject, the Russian Muslim community remains largely a thing in itself, an enigma. In other words, there are more questions than answers here.
  • Topic: Government, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Louise Shelley
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: The globalization of the fruits of Russian organized crime and corruption have affected Russia's international image and undermined state capacity. The departure of illicitly gained billions quickly diminished the capacity of even a once formidable power. It deprived Russia of the resources it needs to rebuild the state infrastructure, service its debts and pay the salaries and pensions of its citizens. The failure of a former superpower to meet the basic needs of its citizens has served as a powerful lesson to the international community. This occurred, in part, because those who controlled the state's capital could move money abroad in enormous amounts and great rapidity.
  • Topic: Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Virginie Coulloudon
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: One of the main difficulties in examining corruption both under the Soviet regime and in post-Soviet Russia lies in its definition. Ever since Yurii Andropov launched systematic anticorruption campaigns in the late 1970s and raised the level of awareness of this social disease, all Soviet and Russian leaders have emphasized the necessity of eradicating corruption without really clarifying what particular phenomenon they had in mind. When analyzing Russian corruption, one is surprised to see how many forms it takes: from rule evasion and bribe taking to rent-seeking, abuses of power, embezzlement, bureaucratic extortion, and insider dealing. Adding to this already complex picture, the causes of such infringements of the law and endemic corruption are perceived differently in different contexts – whether under the Soviet regime or in post-Soviet Russia, or if such actions were motivated by the necessity to survive in an economically and politically hostile environment or merely by a thirst for personal gain.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Oleg Bukharin
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Two factors were of critical significance in shaping the international peace and security agenda after the Cold War: the emergence of nuclear security and proliferation dangers in the wake of the Soviet collapse, and the unprecedented level of cooperation between Russia and other countries to address these problems. As a result of cooperative international and Russia's domestic efforts, important progress has been made in recent years in reducing nuclear arsenals, protecting Russia's nuclear materials, and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise from Russia. Much work, however, remains to be done.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Svante Cornell
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Ethnopolitical conflict has, especially since the early 1990s, been a growing source of concern in the international arena. Having grown since the 1960s, it culminated after the cold war with the eruption of conflict in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Ethnic mobilization among minority populations in multiethnic states has often led to demands for self-rule or to secession. Especially in defined geographical areas where minorities are compactly settled, the creation of a separate state is seen as a feasible goal and control over territory often becomes a chief issue of conflict. Many theorists have found that solutions involving regional autonomy are effective in dealing with ethnic conflict. Ted Gurr, for example, has argued that "negotiated regional autonomy has proved to be an effective antidote for ethnopolitical wars of secession in Western and Third World States." Regional autonomy implies the introduction of ethnoterritoriality - linking territorial control to ethnicity. This is the case either when a region is explicitly created as a homeland for an ethnic group or when a minority group constitutes a large majority of the population of an autonomous state structure and perceives it as its own. Advocates of ethnofederalism argue that autonomy solutions are effective conflict-resolving mechanisms and that further federalization of multiethnic states along ethnic lines will help prevent ethnic conflict. In some of the literature, ethnofederalism has been characterized as what David Meyer terms a "cure-all prescription" for ethnic tensions. There is, however, considerable reason to argue that the institution of territorial autonomy may be conducive not to interethnic peace and cooperation but may in fact foster ethnic mobilization, increased secessionism, and even armed conflict.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe, Caucasus, Soviet Union, Yugoslavia
  • Author: Sonia Ben Ouagrham
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Liechtenstein Institute on Self Determination, Princeton University
  • Abstract: Since September 11th, the American anthrax-laced letters and the war in Afghanistan have revived the interest of government officials, researchers and the general public to the state and security of former biological weapon (BW) facilities in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). In the popular press, reports of the general economic crisis and the political unrest that characterize FSU countries tend to emphasize the proliferation threat from these countries. Very little is said, however, about the nuances of this threat, its nature and degree of probability. Some reports tend to overestimate the number of employees at former BW facilities, thus inflating the risks of brain drain. While at the same time, other major sources of proliferation, such as the diversion of pathogens or the illicit transfer of specialized equipment are usually ignored. The present paper aims to characterize more precisely the threat stemming from former BW facilities in the FSU by determining what type of resources are available at former BW facilities and to what extent they are accessible to states of concern or terrorist groups. Although the existing open source information enables us to determine more clearly the categories of personnel, the type of equipment and material that pose the greatest proliferation threat, it does not measure properly the extent of the threat, i.e. an inventory of past and present facilities, expertise, equipment and material. Nevertheless, we can conclude that specialized knowledge, equipment and dangerous pathogens are available at former BW facilities in the FSU and can become accessible to state or non-state actors wishing to start or develop covert BW programs. This is particularly true in Central Asia, where economic and security factors, associated with the geographic characteristics of this region all converge to form a chain of proliferation: seekers of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their related technologies, potential suppliers and deliverers.
  • Topic: Sovereignty, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, America, Central Asia
  • Author: Dwight Ink
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: My comments on donor policies that increase vulnerability to corruption grow out of experience of directing the Agency for International Development programs in the Western Hemisphere, as well as assessing USAID missions in Africa, the Near East, and Asia. Following this work, I headed a non-profit organization, the Institute of Public Administration, which has been heavily involved in the transition of countries in Europe and Asia from dictatorships to market economies and democratic societies. I should point out, however, that my background is in management, not banking or economics.
  • Topic: Development, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Carolyn Barnes
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: This study seeks to better understand the ways chronic illness and death, possibly associated with HIV/AIDS, negatively affect households and the impact of microcredit in helping affected households. This is achieved through analysis of data from clients of Zambuko Trust and non-client micro entrepreneurs, using proxy indicators of HIV/AIDS affected households. It also investigates the vetting of members by loan guarantee groups and the ways these groups deal with individuals affected by illness and death. Since members of loan groups serve as gatekeepers to loans, the internal dynamics of these groups as well as the MFI's policies and loan term s and conditions are important to understanding any push factors that might exclude HIV/AIDS infected and affected individuals. Suggestions from clients and other key stakeholders are provided on changes that might assist microfinance institutions and their clients to address the negative effects of HIV/AIDS.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Zimbabwe
  • Author: Carolyn Barnes, Gayle Morris
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Using three microfinance institutions (FINCA , FOCCAS, PRIDE) in Uganda, this paper focuses on the impact of microfiance program participation and profiles the clients who participate in these programs. The research covers clients and a non-client comparison group in rural Mbale district, the capital city of Kampala, and Masaka town and its periphery. The two-staged survey was conducted in late 1997 and repeated during the same months in 1999. The assessment conclude s that microfinance program participation has the following positive characteristics on client microenterprises: addition of new products and services, improved or expanded enterprise sites and markets, reduced costs of inventory purchases, and increases in sales volume. Household-level impacts include: began new enterprise, increased amount spent on durable assets and agricultural inputs, increased amount of cultivated agricultural land, and increased amount of household income from crops. The findings also suggest that microfinance programs help client households reduce their financial vulnerability through diversification of income sources and accumulation of assets.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Third World
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Kampala, Masaka
  • Author: Marcela Tribble, Terry F. Buss
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Effective citizen participation processes are now regarded as critical in insuring the successful implementation of federal program s in local com m unities. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, a $4.4 billion community/economic development initiative serving more than 1,000 entitlement communities presents an as of yet unrealized opportunity to involve citizens much more in developing, planning, implementing and evaluating local projects. The Secretary of HUD could greatly expand and deepen citizen participation under CDBG by linking merit pay for federal officials to improved citizen participation efforts, providing entitlement com m unities better incentives, funding demonstration projects, and promoting best practices nation-wide; in short, moving citizen participation much higher up on the national agenda.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Mumukshu Patel
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: On November 6, 2003 in a speech at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), President George W Bush enunciated his Middle East Doctrine: democratization of the region as the first priority of U.S. strategy, irrespective of past policy considerations. It was the most ambitious policy overhaul for the region, since President Eisenhower's commitment to defend the Middle East against Soviet Communism. Following the Eisenhower doctrine all U.S. Middle East policy reflected strategic U.S. concerns: as long as states in the Middle East cooperated with the U.S., shunned Communism and later rejected theocratic regimes – at least nominally, the United States would ignore their domestic policies, and support them – via foreign aid, military technology and personnel etc. This was the status quo that characterized U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: Frank Fairbanks, Allan V. Burman, Gail Christopher, Patrick J. Kelly, Lyle Laverty, Keith Mulrooney, Paul Posner, Charles Wise
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Wildland fire - related acquisition management programs of the five federal land management agencies are big business. For example, Forest Service wildfire preparedness and suppression contracting costs reached almost $800 million in FY 2002. Even at a lower level, these costs significantly affect other land management programs and their funding. Thus, searching for and taking advantage of methods to achieve cost containment of escalating wildland fire acquisition programs take on added value. That is the basic premise of this Academy report.
  • Topic: Environment, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: As the title of this forum suggests, both the government and contractors can lose when outsourcing does not work. At the same time, the prevailing view expressed by the panelists was that outsourcing presents a promising opportunity for the public and private sectors to improve performance and minimize costs.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Ryan J. Watson
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Global debate and media awareness of the complex issues involved with post-conflict governance are at an all-time high. With the reconstruction of the Balkans still leaving much left undone, the United States and much of the international community are seeking to balance continued intervention in Afghanistan with the emerging challenge of rebuilding Iraq.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Balkans
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: This might well have been the greeting card on the desk of the nation's first Secretary of Homeland Security: Officially launched January 24, 2003 with 180,000 employees and a budget of nearly $40 billion, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is, at its inception, the third largest cabinet agency in the U.S. government. No U.S. government reorganization of this magnitude has been accomplished since the creation of the Department of Defense following World War II.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Don Kettl, Peter Harkness, Lisa Heinzerling, DeWitt John, Howard M. Messner, Robert Terrell, Christophe Tulou, Alfred M. Zuck
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: The New Source Review program (NSR) is a critic al tool enacted by Congress 25 years ago to protect public health and improve the nation's air quality. But, as applied to existing facilities, NSR is not working as Congress intended. Thus NSR should be fundamentally reformed and strongly enforced against past violations by existing facilities.
  • Topic: Environment, Government, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Camille Cates Barnett, Christine Becker, Peter Goldberg, Sandra J. Hale, Sara E. Melendez, Michael Rogers
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: A high-performance partnership is a mutually beneficial and reciprocal relationship among entities that share responsibilities, authority, and accountability for results. The partnership is high performance when it achieves goals and outcomes that are meaningful and could not be reached by an individual partner alone.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, International Organization
  • Author: Terry F. Buss, Stevens F. Redburn
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The National Academy of Public Administration
  • Abstract: Changes in society and emerging technologies offer new possibilities for meaningful citizen participation in public choices. A new set of computer-based processes will support sophisticated and game -like group decision-making. Advanced software design accompanied by sensitivity to the hum an/machine interactions that must be managed can lead to citizen-friendly software products and processes that ordinary people can use both individually and in a group setting to make complex choices.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Ivelaw L. Griffith
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The two epigraphs — one by a noted scholar and erstwhile policyactor and the other by a respected policymaker with intellectual acumen — capture core elements of the twin realities of continuity and change that define the security scenario of the contemporary Caribbean. Proximity, vulnerability, and instability are not new features of the Caribbean or of Caribbean-United States dynamics; they represent some of the continuity from times past. However, they assume special character because of the terrorism tragedy that has “cast a pall across the whole hemisphere,” to quote Barbados Prime Minister Arthur.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America, Caribbean, North America
  • Author: Jerry Haar, Catherine Leroy-Beltrán, Oscar Beltrán
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Despite compelling evidence that, for the most part , benefits from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have exceeded its costs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the policy debate continues in all three countries as to whether the accord has produced more “winners” or “losers.” In the case of Mexico, the focus country of this research project, both the Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional — PRI) and the National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional — PAN) have been supportive of NAFTA.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Thomas Andrew O'Keefe
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Almost from the day it was launched on March 26, 1991, skeptics have predicted the imminent collapse of the Common Market of the South (Mercado Común del Sur — MERCOSUR), while some economists have fretted about the project's supposed protectionist designs to create a trade fortress. The most memorable example of the latter was a 1996 report written by a World Bank economist that relied on out-of-date trade statistics and attributed to MERCOSUR policies that were actually pre-existing national automotive regimes. More recent tirades have tried to blame Argentina's economic meltdown on its MERCOSUR membership. A well-known economist from a New York City investment bank has even gone as far as to proclaim MERCOSUR dead. Given all the invective directed against efforts to integrate South America's Southern Cone economically over the past decade, it is not surprising that MERCOSUR is misunderstood by many in North America.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, North America
  • Author: Jerry Haar
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The Latin American financial services sector has been profoundly affected by the sweeping economic, legal, and regulatory reforms of the 1990s. Conversely, the sector has extensively impacted the economic liberalization process that has been the hallmark of Latin American development from the late 1980s through the present. This paper highlights trends in the financial services sector; discusses the key drivers of change, both globally and regionally; illustrates how three of those drivers — mergers and acquisitions (M), technology, and customer demand — are revolutionizing this sector; and reviews the organizational and strategic responses by financial firms to an increasingly competitive environment.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Adam Isacson
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Colombians had never seen President Andrés Pastrana as angry or as dejected as he appeared on television the night of Wednesday, February 20, 2002. His effort to end nearly 40 years of violence — a conflict with leftist guerrillas and paramilitary vigilantes that claimed over 3,500 lives in 2001 — had just received a fatal blow. More than three years of frustrating negotiations had come to nothing.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Colombia
  • Author: Gabriel Marcella
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: President Bush's sweeping support for Colombia underlines a remarkable turnaround in U.S. policy. Driven for years by the ambiguity of a counternarcotics-only approach, the United States has now adopted a more comprehensive recognition of Colombia's deeply rooted and complex security problem. Indeed, Colombia is a revealing paradigm for twenty-first century conflict. It is a surprisingly weak state under assault by a powerful combination of ungoverned national territory, insurgent terrorism of the left and right, international crime organized around drug trafficking, a deeply rooted counterculture of violence and impunity, ecological damage, and institutional corruption. Unlike the Cold War military and ideological confrontation between two superpowers, a country's debilities, rather than its strengths, breed the viruses that threaten the international community and the United State.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia
  • Author: Joaquín Roy
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the Cuban Republic on May 20, 2002, provided an opportunity to review not only the survival of the Cuban regime, but also the whole history of the Cuban nation. 2 This event coincided with the historic visit of former President Jimmy Carter to Havana 3 and the reiteration of the unwillingness of the United States to terminate its embargo of Cuba, as expressed by President George W. Bush in an unprecedented speech in Washington and on a trip to Miami. 4 At the same time, friction has increased between Cuba and some influential Latin American countries, as in the special case of Mexico. The tension generated in the aftermath of the vote taken by the United Nations Commission for Human Rights in Geneva in April 2002, which criticized Cuba's human rights practices, revealed a definite crack in the comfortable linkage previously enjoyed by Castro with most countries of the hemisphere (with the notable exception of the United States). On October 23, 2002, when the European Parliament (EP) approved the award of the Sakharov Prize to Cuban dissident Oswaldo Payá for his record in the defense of human rights and especially for his leadership in the “Varela Project,” the overall panorama of the relations of the European Union (EU) with Cuba acquired a new look, signifying the confirmation of a long pattern of the EU's perceptions of and policy toward Cuba. 5 Cuba's decision to allow Payá to travel to Strasbourg to receive the award was taken simultaneously with the EU's announcement of the opening of a delegation in Cuba, while Castro surprisingly declared that Cuba would reapply to become a member of the Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) Cotonou Convention. It is time, therefore, for a historical review and a consideration of the most salient aspects of European-Cuban relations and some of the pending issues.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Cuba, Caribbean
  • Author: Joaquin Roy
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: With the public announcement of a reshaped Plan Colombia in mid-2000, European attitudes toward involvement in attempting to solve the crisis of Colombia's endemic violence has oscillated from alarm to hope and, finally, to frustration. The overall scene has been dominated by a sense of powerlessness, mixed with realism and internal contradictions between member states and institutions of the European Union (EU).
  • Topic: International Relations, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Colombia