Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

34801. A, B, C – Deployment of Civilian Capacities to International Peace Operations

Author:: Denis Hadžović
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: After the end of the Cold War traditional peacekeeping has become more complex and multidimensional, including not only military but also civilian, political and humanitarian tasks.1 The concept of peacekeeping thus broadened into a concept of peacebuilding, which dates back to the post-World War II reconstruction of Europe and Japan. The term ‘peacebuilding’ entered the international lexicons in the early 1990s when the then United Nations Secretary General Boutros- Boutros Ghali defined it in his 1992 Agenda for Peace as “…Action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict“.2
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34802. The Greek Euro Tragedy

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This Strategic Update discusses the most recent problems for the Eurozone, namely the Greek crisis and how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) lack of democratic accountability has contributed to the instability of the Eurozone.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34803. Hebrew Sources in the Doctrine of the Law of Nature and Nations in Early Modern Europe

Author:: Charles Leben
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article sets out to re-examine Hebrew sources in the doctrine of the law of nations of the 17th century, from Gentili’s De Jure Belli Libri Tres (although it strictly belongs to the 16th century since it was first published in 1598) to Pufendorf’s De Jure Naturae et Gentium (1672). It incontrovertibly confirms the importance of Jewish sources in the general intellectual education of the founding fathers of international law and in their general political philosophy while limiting their role with respect to the construction of international law in the strict and contemporaneous sense of the term.
Topic:: International Law, Religion, Political Theory, History, Law, and Judaism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

34804. Global Safe Haven Bonding Foreign and Domestic Owners of the U.S. Public Debt

Author:: Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: This paper offers new theoretical and empirical insights to explain the resilience of the U.S. Treasuries market as a safe haven for global investment. Going beyond the standard systemic explanation, the paper highlights the importance of domestic politics in reinforcing the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities. In particular, the research shows how a formidable “bond” of interests unites domestic and foreign owners of the public debt and works to sustain U.S. power in global finance. Foreigners who now own roughly half of the U.S. public debt have something to gain from their domestic counterparts. The top one percent of U.S. households that dominate domestic ownership of the U.S. public debt have considerable political clout, thus alleviating foreign concerns about the creditworthiness of the U.S. federal government. Domestic owners of the U.S. public debt, in turn, have something to gain from the seemingly insatiable foreign appetite for U.S. Treasury securities. In supplying the U.S. federal government and U.S. households with cheap credit, foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries help to deflect challenges to the top one percent within the wealth and income hierarchy.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Inequality, and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and United Kingdom

34805. Beyond Elitism: The Possibilities of Labour-Centred Development

Author:: Benjamin Selwyn
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: This article outlines the theory and practice of Labour Centred Development (LCD). Much development thinking is elitist, positing states and corporations as primary agents in the development process. This article argues, by contrast, that collective actions by labouring classes can generate tangible developmental gains, and therefore, that under certain circumstances they can be considered primary development actors. Examples of LCD discussed here include shack-dweller’s movements in South Africa, the landless labourer’s movement in Brazil, unemployed worker’s movements in Argentina and large-scale collective actions by formal sector workers across East Asia. The article also considers future prospects for LCD.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Labor Issues, and International Development
Political Geography:: East Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina

34806. Global Value Chains or Global Poverty Chains? A new research agenda

Author:: Benjamin Selwyn
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis is part and parcel of mainstream development discourse and policy. Supplier firms are encouraged, with state support, to ‘link-up’ with trans-national lead firms. Such arrangements, it is argued, will reduce poverty and contribute to meaningful socio-economic development. This portrayal of global political economic relations represents a ‘problem-solving’ interpretation of reality. This article proposes an alternative analytical approach rooted in ‘critical theory’ which reformulates the GVC approach to better investigate and explain the reproduction of global poverty, inequality and divergent forms of national development. It suggests re-labelling GVC as Global Poverty Chain (GPC) analysis. GPC’s are examined in the textiles, food, and high-tech sectors. The article details how workers in these chains are systematically paid less than their subsistence costs, how trans-national corporations use their global monopoly power to capture the lion’s share of value created within these chains, and how these relations generate processes of immiserating growth. The article concludes by considering how to extend GPC analysis.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Eastern Europe, and Asia

34807. The problem with ‘embedded liberalism’: the World Bank and the myth of Bretton Woods

Author:: Samuel Appleton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: The Bretton Woods conference is conventionally understood as a radical break between the laissez faire order and its ‘embedded liberal’ successor, in which finance was suppressed in the interest of trade and productive growth. The new institutions, particularly the IBRD are often considered emblematic of this. In response to this, the paper argues that the Bretton Woods order required the enlistment, not repression, of private American finance. Firstly, laissez-faire era proposals for international financial institutions provided important precedents for the Bretton Woods institutions. Second, these were predicated on the uniquely deep liquidity of American financial markets following upon Progressive-era reforms, in the legacy of which the Roosevelt administration sought to locate the New Deal. Thirdly, they found new relevance in the 1940s as the IBRD turned by necessity to American financial markets for operating capital. Negotiating the imperative of commercial creditworthiness had two important consequences. First, it entailed the structural and procedural transformation of the IBRD, and allowed management to carve out a proprietary terrain in which its agency was decisive. Second, this suggests that US agendas were mediated by the Bank’s institutional imperatives – and that finance was no more ‘embedded’ during the Bretton Woods era than its predecessor.
Topic:: Development, Economics, World Bank, Global Markets, International Development, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Latin America

34808. NON-TARIFF MEASURES TO FOOD TRADE IN INDIA: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED PORTS

Author:: Aparna Sharma
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Speaking at a recent summit, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to India as a bright spot in the global economy. India’s rapid domestic growth and growing integration with global trade, technology and financial flows support his assertion; yet, all this is not translating into peak progress in South Asia, to which New Delhi avowedly assigns high priority. Despite India climbing nine positions in the Ease of Doing Business index (164 to 155 - out of 180 countries), its ranking vis-a-vis facilitating border trade (133) remains unchanged since the last five years. In the absence of timely reforms to bolster food security in South Asia, Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) measures, Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and administrative measures for trade facilitation have emerged as the biggest concern to South Asia’s food trade. 86 percent of South Asia’s food trade remains crippled with non-standard implementation of SPS and TBT measures.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34809. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation

Author:: Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus

34810. Backlash against International Courts in West, East and Southern Africa: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Karen J. Alter, James T. Gathii, and Laurence R. Helfer
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article discusses three credible attempts by African governments to restrict the jurisdiction of three similarly situated sub-regional courts in response to politically controversial rulings. In West Africa, when the Court of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) upheld allegations of torture by opposition journalists in Gambia, that country’s political leaders sought to restrict the Court’s power to review human rights complaints. The other member states ultimately defeated Gambia’s proposal. In East Africa, Kenya failed in its efforts to eliminate the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) and to remove some of its judges after a decision challenging an election to a sub-regional legislature. However, the member states agreed to restructure the EACJ in ways that have significantly affected the Court’s subsequent trajectory. In Southern Africa, after the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Tribunal ruled in favour of white farmers in disputes over land seizures, Zimbabwe prevailed upon SADC member states to suspend the Tribunal and strip its power to review complaints from private litigants. Variations in the mobilization efforts of community secretariats, civil society groups and sub-regional parliaments explain why efforts to eliminate the three courts or narrow their jurisdiction were defeated in ECOWAS, scaled back in the EACJ and largely succeeded in the SADC.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Courts
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Europe, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Gambia

34811. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation

Author:: Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
Topic:: International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus

34812. The Right to Leave by Sea: Legal Limits on EU Migration Control by Third Countries

Author:: Nora Markard
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: The EU and its member states are progressively involving third countries in their border control measures at sea. Relevant instruments of cooperative migration control range from capacity building measures to joint patrols in third-country territorial waters and shared surveillance intelligence on ship movements. So far, the discussion on migration control at sea has mainly focused on the illegality of ‘push-backs’ of migrant boats by EU member states to their point of departure. By contrast, the increasing incidence of departure prevention or ‘pull-backs’ by third countries in the service of EU member states has been largely neglected. In particular, such measures raise grave concerns with respect to the right to leave any country, including one’s own. Of central importance during the Cold War, this human right is of no lesser relevance at Europe’s outer borders. This paper explores to what extent departure prevention and pull-back measures are compatible with the right to leave and the law of the sea and discusses the responsibility of EU member states for internationally wrongful acts committed by third countries in such cooperative migration control scenarios.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Migration, Border Control, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

34813. Asia's Ambivalence about International Law and Institutions: Past, Present and Futures

Author:: Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: Asian states are the least likely of any regional grouping to be party to most international obligations or to have representation reflecting their number and size in international or ganizations. That is despite the fact that Asian states have arguably benefited most from the security and economic dividends provided by international law and institutions. This article explores the reasons for Asia’s under-participation and under-representation. The first part traces the history of Asia’s engagement with international law. The second part assesses Asia’s current engagement with international law and institutions, examining whether its under-participation and under-representation is in fact significant and how it might be explained. The third part considers possible future developments based on three different scenarios, referred to here as status quo, divergence and convergence. Convergence is held to be the most likely future, indicating adaptation on the part of Asian states as well as on the part of the international legal order.
Topic:: International Law, International Organization, History, Courts, and Colonialism
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, India, and Asia

34814. Transitional Justice: Lessons from the Western Balkans

Author:: Martina Fischer
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: The policy brief examines different approaches and initiatives for transitional justice and reconciliation that have been implemented since the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia in 1995. It highlights achievements and innovative approaches in processes of dealing with the past as well as shortcomings and obstacles for reconciliation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Transitional Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Balkans

34815. Let's Take the Bias Out of Econometrics

Author:: Duo Qin
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This study exposes the cognitive flaws of ‘endogeneity bias’. It reviews how conceptualisation of the bias has evolved to embrace all major econometric problems, despite extensive lack of hard evidence. It reveals the crux of the bias – a priori rejection of causal variables as conditionally valid ones, and of the bias correction by consistent estimators – modification of those variables by non-uniquely and non-causally generated regressors. It traces the flaws to misconceived error terms in statistical modelling and estimation consistency. It highlights the need to shake off the bias to let statistical learning play an active and formal role in econometrics.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Theory, Models, and Bias
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34816. Are Distortions Good for Development? Structural Transformations and Cotton in Uzbekistan

Author:: Lorena Lombardozzi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Agriculture is at the origin of all economic activities and thus obtains a notable position in growth theory. The contribution of primary sector to long-term economic development has given space to asymmetrical positions. In the current context of globalized markets and downsized states, Uzbekistan is incontestably an exceptional case-study, applying distortive measures to its economy, and to agricultural sector in particular, to actively shape its comparative advantages. With reference to the cotton sector taxation in Uzbekistan, this analysis proposes to shed light on the implications of the main theoretical arguments around distortions. It will investigate the “circular cumulative and interactive process” produced and how it is being a driver of structural transformation, to exploit economies of scale and transfer capital investments for heavy industry, concluding that distortion can actually be instrumental for development.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Rural, and Crops
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

34817. Regional Financial Integration in East Asia Against the Backdrop of Recent European Experiences

Author:: Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper discusses recent trends in regional financial integration in East Asia and current efforts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries to foster regional financial integration against the backdrop of three decades of experience with financial integration in Europe. It reviews the two major crisis episodes of the recent European financial history to illustrate the risks associated with comprehensive capital account liberalisation and financial integration without commensurate supervisory structures. The paper highlights the importance of targeted macroprudential policies and the development of an adequate region- wide regulatory and supervisory framework to reduce the risks associated with regional – and hence international – financial integration.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Finance, Financial Stability, and Financial Integrity
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

34818. Social Capital: From the Gringo's Tale to the Colombian Reality

Author:: Ben Fine and Juan Pablo Duran Ortiz
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The current idea of “social capital” as driver of development and social change is not so much an illusion as a delusion. A justification for this emerges once power, class, conflict and context are explicitly brought to bear upon the social capital paradigm. This paper studies social capital in Colombia beginning with its initial definition proposed by Pierre Bourdieu in the early 1980s, with emphasis upon a contextualised reproduction and exercise of elite power. In this light, the real as opposed to the delusionary social capital can explain a great deal of the social and economic evolution of the country. For Colombia has been captured by the “social capital” of national elites, drug dealers and multinational firms, ably abetted by the US government. It has launched a campaign of systematic violence against its citizenry under the paper-thin ideology of development and the war against drugs and terrorism in order to accrue profits from evictions and land expropriation.
Topic:: Development, Terrorism, War on Drugs, and Social Capital
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

34819. Understanding the Recent trend of Income Inequality in China

Author:: Juzhong Zhuang and Shi Li
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines underlying factors that could explain the decline in income inequality in China since 2008 and inquires whether the decline indicates China‘s income inequality has peaked following the Kuznets hypothesis. The paper first identifies four key drivers of rising income inequality in China since the mid-1980: rising skill premium, declining share of labor income, increasing spatial inequality, and widening inequality in the distribution of wealth. It then provides evidence that the reversal of these drivers, with the exception of wealth inequality, could partly explains the decline in income inequality since 2008. The paper argues that since part of the reversal of these drivers is policy-induced, it is important that the policy actions continue for income inequality to decline further. The paper further argues that a critical factor underlying the Kuznets hypothesis is that taxation and transfers play a bigger role in income redistribution as a country becomes more developed, while their role is still limited in China, the future path of China‘s income inequality may not be one-directional, and may stay high before personal income tax plays a bigger role.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34820. From One-Dimensional man to One-Dimensional Economy and Economics

Author:: Ben Fine
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The evolution to dominance of neoclassical economics is reviewed in light of Marcuse’s One- Dimensional Man in the wake of the fiftieth anniversary of the classic’s first publication.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, Commodities, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34821. Developing or Under-Developing? Implications of CHina's "Going Out" for Late Development

Author:: Dic Lo
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Since the turn of the century, China’s influence on world development has increased enormously. This paper seeks to analyse major attributes of the influence of China’s “going out”, centring on the argument that the influence has been in the main conducive to the rest of the developing world. Specifically, this paper offers a critique of relevant, popular theses such as “China’s neoliberalization crowds out world development”, “China under-cuts the conditions of the world’s working class”, and “China exhibits a tendency towards imperialism”, etc. It is argued that, in the context of a neoliberal world economy that is increasingly speculation-oriented, China’s production-oriented activities can be seen as an important countervailing force. Whether this China influence is to continue to be conducive to world development in the future, or to turn to become detrimental, depends critically on the broader political-economic context.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Hegemony, Trade, and Influence
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34822. Compulsory Schooling and the Returns to Education: A Re-examination

Author:: Sophie van Huellen and Duo Qin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: We re-examine the effect of compulsory school law on education in the US pioneered by Angrist and Krueger (1991). We show that the standard instrumental variable approach of the education variable not only yields empirically inconsistent estimates, but is conceptually confused. The confusion arises from the rejection of the key causal variable as a valid conditional variable. By route of a causally explicit model design we are able to identify the circumstances under which the formerly rejected variable can yield valid inference values. Our investigation demonstrates the importance of building data-consistent models over estimator choice in successful research designs.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Economic Theory, and Models
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34823. The Changing Pattern of China's Economic Relations with Southeast Asia

Author:: Anne Booth
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines the debates which have arisen in the ten countries of ASEAN about the impact of growing trade and investment ties with China, both before and after the full implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010. It examines the changes which have taken place in the country composition of trade and investment flows within the ASEAN countries, and between the ASEAN countries, China, and the rest of the world. The evidence indicates that while merchandise trade values have increased between China and ASEAN since 2010, the increase has not been as rapid as some predicted. But China is now running a substantial trade surplus with the ASEAN countries; the value of exports from China to ASEAN exceed the value of imports to China from the ASEAN countries. This surplus could lead to frictions in the future. Investment flows from China to ASEAN are still small in relation to flows into ASEAN from the rest of the world.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Hegemony, and Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34824. Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-Based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA

Author:: Duo Qin
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models to present the predictive macro-impacts of the financial markets, and (ii) that the FCIs are adequately invariant during regular updates to resemble non-model based aggregate indices. Both aims are shown to be attainable as long as the FCIs are tailor-made with carefully selected components and suitably targeted macro variables of forecasting interest. The positive outcome sheds light on why the widely used principal component analysis (PCA) approach is ill-suited to the tasks here whereas why the PLS route promises a fruitful way forward.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Finance, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34825. The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In 2015, the expansion of the US economy accompanied with improved employment rates led the FED to switch to contractionary monetary policy. On the other hand, the second largest economic power-China encountered a lower long-term economic growth rate with a fall in exports, and thereby adversely affecting global economic activity. Moreover, the rapid decline of prices in global fuel markets, owing to fundamental and political reasons, resulted in an economic downturn in countries reliant on their fuel exports, while importers experienced a higher economic activity in parallel with lower inflation expectations. Since the monetary and economic policies were originally anchored to the oil price of 90 USD, the average of 53.4 USD resulted in an economic imbalance, and ultimately leading to the second sharp devaluation at the end of the year (21.12.2015). That is to say, the Central Bank could no longer pursue the fixed exchange rate regime, and switched to the floating regime.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

34826. The response of Turkey and Russia after Jet Crisis and the implications for the South Caucasus

Author:: Cristina Juan Carrion, Gulnara Abbas, and Ibrahim Ibrahimov
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In 2016 and years thereafter, the economies of Turkey and Russia will experience considerable change due to sanctions imposed by the Russian government as a response to the downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015.The dissolution of Russian-Turkish ties has also affected neighboring regions, especially the South Caucasus. As a result, there will be a transformation in economic, political, demographical and social trends. The sectors of agriculture, energy and especially tourism will face tremendous changes with the performance of new key players.
Topic:: Agriculture, Energy Policy, Migration, Labor Issues, Tourism, Sanctions, Economy, and Transportation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and South Caucasus

34827. Turkish Cypriots Want a Secure Future

Author:: Mensur Akgün, Sylvia Tiryaki, and Muhammed Ammash
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Presidents Nikos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci paved the way to rekindle the resolution process which had gone amiss on the Island over the years. Despite their inherent different political ideologies, both men were convinced of the potency of settlement; as such they worked in preparation of their societies towards the resolution. The public opinion polls conducted on the Island captures an important detail; thus, a considerable majority of the Turkish Cypriot society is unready for the eventual settlement of the Cyprus question irrespective of their leaders’ goodwill. There are two main issues essential for a concrete future resolution plan-‘security and property’. Views on the protection of the bicommunality and other expectations are equally important alongside other issues that were mentioned by the Turkish Cypriots that we conducted interviews with. The concerns raised essentially focus on the security issue. The Turkish Cypriots’ desire to live in security both politically and economically post-unification.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Territorial Disputes, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

34828. State Legitimacy, Fragile States, and U.S. National Security

Author:: CAP National Security and International Policy
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The continued growth of powerful transnational challenges poses grave and persis- tent threats to the security and well-being of the United States. America’s approach needs to be updated to include new foreign policy tools and new approaches. The heart of the new foundation for U.S. foreign policy should be an investment in the efforts of nations at risk of collapsing and unleashing global threats to build legitimacy and to escape the trap of repression followed by upheaval. International Compacts for Governance, Prosperity, and Security could transform how the international community works in partnership with fragile states to improve their legitimacy and security over time. The United States will need the political will and leadership to support steady, long-term, and carefully designed investments in fragile states. This will also require rebalancing U.S. foreign policy resources toward development, diplomacy, economic statecraft, and justice sector reform, while maintaining the world’s most powerful military. All of these tools are required to move from a focus on countering terrorism to a focus on defeating extremism and enabling other nations to build the legitimacy they need themselves. This is the strategy that will most effectively and sustainably ensure America’s national security—and, indeed, global security as well.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Reform, and transnationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34829. The Process Behind Turkey’s Proposed Extradition of Fethullah Gülen

Author:: Michael Werz and Max Hoffman
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: It is hard to overstate the gravity of what happened in Turkey during the failed July 15 coup attempt. More than 270 people were killed and thousands wounded in clashes related to the attempted overthrow of the elected government. Tanks and armored vehicles rumbled through the streets of Istanbul and Ankara; soldiers fired into civilian crowds; and rogue F-16 jets and military helicopters bombed and strafed targets in Ankara, including the parliament, the intelligence ministry, and the presidential palace. This litany of atrocities is now familiar to those covering Turkey but should provoke no less soul-searching. There has been a troubling tendency in some Western quarters to respond glibly to Turkey’s trauma, but it is worth considering how the United States government and public would react in the wake of such a crisis. The outpouring of anger and emotion from Turks of all political backgrounds is natural. Without question, those behind the coup attempt must be brought to justice and face trial. As the coup attempt unfolded through the night of July 15, Turkish officials quickly pointed to Fethullah Gülen and his followers—generally referred to collectively as Gülenists or the Hizmet movement—as the driving force behind the overthrow plot. Gülen, an Islamic scholar and U.S. permanent resident, has been living in a compound in rural Pennsylvania since his self-imposed exile from Turkey in 1999, granting few interviews and rarely seeing outside visitors. Gülen’s movement has set up schools in hundreds of countries—including the United States—and established cultural exchange programs, business associations, and media outlets. The exact personal relationship of Gülen to many of these bodies and his degree of direct control over them is not clear. Gülen and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are former political allies, and members of the Gülen movement helped populate the state bureaucracy following the 2002 election victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. For a decade, the AKP and the Gülenists cooperated and, indeed, the movement was an integral part of the burgeoning AKP political, media, academic, and business establishment. The alliance helped both the AKP and the Gülen movement, allowing them to erode the control of traditional military and secular elites in Turkey; there is strong evidence that Gülenists in the police and judiciary collaborated with the AKP government to purge military officers and secular rivals in two massive—and manufactured—cases against supposed coup plotters in 2008 and 2010. But Gülenist prosecutors turned on the AKP in December 2013, opening major corruption cases against senior party leaders and their families. Gülenists are believed to have leaked—or, Erdoğan supporters say, manufactured—tapes implicating Erdoğan and his family in widespread corruption, possibly in a bid to swing upcoming elections. Erdoğan and the AKP decried the corruption cases as a coup attempt and declared open political war with the Gülen movement, seizing businesses and closing media outlets and schools associated with the movement. The Turkish demand for Gülen’s extradition, then, is not new and is part of a long-running political fight. But Turkish officials and the public are absolutely convinced of Gülen’s personal complicity in the coup attempt, and the request for his extradition is a primary element of Turkey’s response to the crisis. Despite the gravity of the wider issues surrounding the coup attempt for Turkish politics and society, this brief is primarily focused on the narrower question of Gülen’s potential extradition, the process by which such extraditions are pursued under the treaty between Turkey and the United States that governs extradition, and the political ramifications for U.S. policy and relations with Turkey.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Coup, Judiciary, and Extradition
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

34830. The Economic Impacts of Removing Unauthorized Immigrant Workers

Author:: Ryan Edwards and Francesc Ortega
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: In every state and in every industry across the United States, immigrants—authorized and unauthorized—are contributing to the U.S. economy. Immigrant labor and entrepreneurship are believed to be powerful forces of economic revitalization for communities struggling with population decline. Estimates suggest that the total number of unauthorized immigrants currently residing in the United States is approximately 11.3 million, or about 3.5 percent of the total 2015 resident population of 324.4 million. Of those 11.3 million, we estimate that 7 million are workers. What is the economic contribution of these unauthorized workers? What would the nation stand to lose in terms of production and income if these workers were removed and returned to their home countries?
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Border Control, and Immigrants
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34831. Avoiding a Full Arctic Meltdown

Author:: Cathleen Kelly and Kelsey Schober
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Supplied with new evidence of accelerating Arctic warming and approaching environmental tipping points, the Obama administration will convene science ministers from around the world in September to assess the rate and consequences of Arctic climate change and weigh global strategies for averting its worst effects. This first-ever White House Arctic Science Ministerial—which will include top science advisers, high-level officials, and Arctic indigenous community leaders—coincides roughly with the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama’s 2015 Alaskan Arctic trip. After his historic visit to the High North, President Obama told Vogue, “The looming crisis in the Alaska Arctic is a tangible preview of the looming crisis of the global condition.” The president is right to worry. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, setting off a cascade of dangerous changes at the top of the world that include vanishing Arctic snow and ice, thawing permafrost, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. These changes risk triggering irreversible tipping points with perilous side effects, such as unmanageable sea-level rise and coastal flooding, more frequent extreme weather, and increased warming and carbon emissions. These changes threaten the well-being of people around the globe.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Arctic

34832. Recalibrating U.S.-China Relations in Southeast Asia

Author:: Vikram Singh, Yuan Peng, Melanie Hart, Brian Harding, Zhang Xuegang, Chen Wenxin, and Zhang Fan
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Center for American Progress and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, or CICIR, have partnered often over the years, working regularly on areas of cooperation between China and the United States and on options for managing areas of competition and tension. Together, CAP and CICIR have held or participated in many conferences, workshops, and symposiums that bring together Chinese and U.S. officials and scholars; we have worked on joint publications; and we believe that we have helped enable substantial cooperation between the United States and China. Mistrust complicates U.S.-China relations and can obscure areas where cooperation might be possible and beneficial. Negative dynamics also obscure from others the depth of U.S.-China cooperation in a wide range of areas. In this report, we try to cut through these dynamics and offer new options. In 2014, CAP and CICIR began to discuss how U.S.-China tensions might be obscuring areas of mutual interest in Southeast Asia, a region of tremendous importance strategically and economically to the entire region and the world. Prior to this project, in our respective organizations, the people who work on Southeast Asia did not work closely with colleagues working on U.S.-China bilateral relations. In most cases, our bilateral experts had spent little or no time in Southeast Asia, yet the tensions at play in the region featured prominently in their day-to-day work. Both the United States and China, meanwhile, were making investments and building new partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Was Southeast Asia to be an arena of competition for China and the United States, or could there be areas of cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, that brought benefit to all? The potential for research by our teams with Southeast Asian counterparts was clear. It was our friend and colleague Nina Hachigian who proposed the concept that would make this a groundbreaking project. Now the U.S. ambassador to ASEAN, Hachigian is a diplomat and scholar of rare skill and creativity. She noted that CAP and CICIR could only do productive work in this area by doing two things: First, the organizations needed to join their stovepiped research teams into a single group with expertise on both Southeast Asia and U.S.-China relations. Second, CAP and CICIR had to partner with scholars in the region who study the United States, China, and ASEAN. And rather than holding a conference, why not travel through the region with local hosts?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

34833. Violence and Peace

Author:: Trevor Sutton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: One of the most profound developments in international affairs since the end of the Cold War has been the rise of a global accountability movement that seeks to hold political authorities responsible for abuses inflicted on their own citizens and those of neighboring countries.1 During the decades between the Nuremberg and Tokyo War Crimes tribunals of the late 1940s and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world’s great powers demonstrated little interest in establishing international justice mechanisms to redress gross human rights abuses.2 That changed in 1993, however, when the United Nations passed a resolution establishing the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, or ICTY.3 The decade that followed saw the creation of supranational tribunals to try the perpetrators of atrocities in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, East Timor, and Cambodia, and also the founding of an International Criminal Court, or ICC, whose jurisdiction has been recognized by more than 120 nations.4 The purpose of these institutions was to end impunity—that is, the absence of criminal liability—in countries where political and military authorities had committed horrific violence against civilians.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Violence, Accountability, Peace, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34834. Leveraging U.S. Power in the Middle East

Author:: CAP Middle East Team
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The geopolitical landscape that emerged after the end of the Cold War is facing recent strains from an unprecedented wave of global migration, climate change, and a more assertive Russia and competitive China—and the Middle East has emerged as a focal point for many of these challenges. The administration of the next U.S. president will face a Middle East challenged by regional power tensions; multiple civil wars; state collapse driven by political legitimacy crises; threats from rapidly evolving terrorist networks; record numbers of refugees; and escalating economic and human development pressures. These challenges, along with a new wave of regressive authoritarian forces limiting basic freedoms, will require the next administration to take a proactive and long-term approach to the Middle East. Dynamics in the Middle East have understandably caused many Americans to question the value of U.S involvement in the region. Indeed, this skepticism is supported by the track record of the past 15 years, particularly the fallout from the 2003 Iraq war. But recent events and trends in the Middle East—from the rise of the Islamic State to the refugee crisis spilling over into Europe—demonstrate that the United States has important stakes in what happens in the region. Because of the threats that the Middle East presents for the homeland and the danger that continued conflict in the region poses to global stability, the United States needs to work closely with regional partners to adopt a long-term approach to the region that advances America’s interests and values.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

34835. How Carbon Pricing Could Span the United States and North America

Author:: Gwynne Taraska and Howard Marano
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Carbon pricing is flourishing in North America. Canada, for example, has announced a national price to take effect in 2018, while Mexico has announced a 12-month cap-and-trade pilot that will evolve into a national program. These developments join a network of established pricing instruments, including a carbon tax in Mexico and subnational systems in California, the northeast United States, and several Canadian provinces. Once unlikely, it now seems probable that carbon pricing will proliferate not only across Canada and Mexico but also in the United States. Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs have found a diverse set of U.S. proponents, including from the private sector and from across the political spectrum, who view carbon pricing instruments as effective and efficient methods of curbing greenhouse gas emissions and the disruptive effects of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Carbon Emissions, and Price Control
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

34836. 5 Big Ideas for U.S. Policy in the Americas

Author:: Dan Restrepo, Michael Werz, and Joel Martinez
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Americas affect U.S. national and homeland security, economic prosperity, and stability perhaps more than any other region in the world. Collectively, they are the destination for more than 40 percent of all U.S. exports,1 the source of 65 percent of all U.S. energy imports,2 and the region of origin or heritage for 17 percent of the U.S. population.3 As the next administration looks to the Americas, it will have a fundamental choice: It can embrace the partnership model that seeks to work with those in the region willing and capable to engage on the wide range of bilateral, regional, and global issues that have predominated the past eight years. Or, in contrast, the administration can unreasonably attempt to wall the United States off from its closest neighbors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, North America, and United States of America

34837. Trade Update 2016: Transfers and Transparency

Author:: Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update 2016: Transfers and Transparency reports that the world’s ‘top’ and ‘major’ small arms exporters delivered at least USD 5.8 billion worth of small arms in 2013, an increase of 17 per cent compared to the USD 5 billion worth exported in 2012. The United States exported a record USD 1.1 billion worth of small arms in 2013, followed by Italy (USD 644 million) and Germany (USD 557 million). These three states accounted for almost 40 per cent of exports in 2013. In addition, significant increases in exports were recorded by Croatia, Israel, Spain, and Switzerland, whose small arms exports in 2013 pushed them over the USD 100 million mark. Meanwhile, transfers of small arms to the United States (USD 2.5 billion) alone accounted for 42 per cent of all imports.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34838. Toward a More Perfect Union: The Struggle for Security in Libya

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Libya’s militia problem—which is a primary source of political and economic instability—is more complicated than defeating IS because it is more widespread. Dealing with it is a fundamental part of any effort to build a unified Libyan state. There are said to be as many as 2,000 militias across Libya, and while most are independent, they do fall into three general categories.10 There are those militias aligned with the GNC, many of which are Islamist but not necessarily jihadi. There are those that are generally anti-Islamist, loyal to the HoR and its military strongman supporter General Khalifa Haftar. Then there are those that are radical jihadis, such as IS and Ansar al-Shariah, which have ties to Al Qaeda.11 These militias form coalitions when it suits their purpose and at other times are at odds with each other. Regardless, they have helped create a failed Libyan state with no central authority or security structure.12 The criminal underground in Libya has been functioning since the time of Gadhafi. There are a number of groups, but there is no real central power structure similar to the mafia. Instead, these criminal groups operate independently, and they traffic in a variety of things, including guns, drugs, and people. They work with whoever serves their purpose, including IS. The role of the criminal underground has increased as the Libyan economy continues to crumble. In a very real sense, these criminal groups are the connective tissue between the jihadis and the militias, with all three impeding efforts to rebuild Libya.13 If Libya devolves into further instability—in effect becoming a failed state—it creates a threat to the region; a threat to Europe because of the increased flow of refugees and migrants from Libya; and a threat to both the United States and European Union because of the presence of IS and Al Qaeda affiliates. While addressing Libya’s security crises is an essential piece of the effort to build a functioning state, it will certainly be a difficult and complicated process. Nonetheless, there are things that can be done that will help make Libya more secure.
Topic:: Security, Fragile/Failed State, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

34839. Orbán’s Hungary

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The recent U.S. presidential election caught much of the world by surprise and raised a number of questions about how the new administration will govern. Was the rhetoric on the campaign trail a harbinger of things to come, was it a divisive campaign strategy to get elected, or a bit of both? Either way, there is reason for concern and dismay. Taking a closer look at the Trump campaign, there are parallels to the right-wing national populist political movements in Europe. The recent transformation of Hungarian politics—in particular, the metamorphosis of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, leader of the ruling Fidesz Party—offers a cautionary tale of what can happen when a right-wing national populist leader gets elected. Unfortunately, Orbán, who has been invited to Washington by President-elect Donald Trump,1 is only one part of a larger right-wing national populist phenomenon that has taken root in Europe. For example, he is an inspiration for Jarosław Kacszyński, head of the Polish Law and Justice Party, or PiS, which now controls Poland’s government.2 The PiS, taking a page out of Orbán’s playbook, has been trying to consolidate its power by doing such things as attacking Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal, its highest court.3 The idea behind this and related moves in Hungary and Poland is to ensure that once the party is in power, it will remain there by rigging the system to make sure its leaders can get specific programs enacted and create a more favorable electoral climate.
Topic:: Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

34840. Advancing Climate-Compatible Infrastructure Through the G-20

Author:: Gwynne Taraska, Peter Ogden, Nancy Alexander, and Howard Marano
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: To date, 17 G-20 countries—which account for 67 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution—have officially joined the Paris Agreement, bringing the pact into effect sooner than anyone expected.1 If they follow through with their commitments to reduce emissions, it will represent unprecedented progress in the global effort to curb climate change. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, has suggested a number of actions, including dismantling the Clean Power Plan and pledging to “cancel” the Paris Agreement, that would drive the United States—and potentially other countries—in the opposite direction.2 In light of this, the G-20 summit in July 2017 provides an important opportunity for committed major powers to resist backsliding by any and all G-20 countries—and even to make some progress in meeting the climate challenge. To its credit, the German government, which officially assumed the G-20 presidency in December 2016, has taken steps that position the summit well for just such an effort. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her three “pillar” objectives for the summit, she explicitly identified climate change as a priority. These pillars include fostering global economic stability; making the global economy viable for the future, including through the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and establishing the G-20 as a “community of responsibility,” including by promoting a compact with Africa that would address infrastructure investment, among other topics.3
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, G20, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

34841. Moscow on the Potomac

Author:: CAP National Security and International Policy
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: On October 16, 2016, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson issued an extraordinary statement, indicating that the “U.S. Intelligence Community is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations.”1 The release of this hacked information was all directed at the Democratic presidential campaign and its affiliates, with no hacked information leaked regarding the campaign of the Republican presidential nominee, and now president-elect, Donald Trump. These senior U.S. intelligence officials pointed out that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, had used similar tactics across Europe and Eurasia to bolster right-wing nationalist parties and that “[t]hese thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.” Director Michael Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, noted, “There shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s minds, this was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.”2
Topic:: Security, Corruption, National Security, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

34842. A Practical Plan on the Israeli-Palestinian Front

Author:: Mara Rudman and Brian Katulis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The incoming U.S. administration has an opportunity to increase stability and advance U.S. security interests in the Middle East by outlining a framework for Israelis and Palestinians to make independent, coordinated, and constructive steps toward a two-state solution. This solution would support a safe and secure Israel and a sustainable, contiguous, and sovereign Palestine. At a time when the broader region continues to experience threats from civil wars, state fragmentation, and terrorist networks, the Israeli-Palestinian front is one area where the incoming administration can build on decades of investments to help enhance security and construct lasting institutions to achieve a sustainable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. President-elect Donald Trump has declared that he wants “to be the one that made peace with Israel and the Palestinians.”1 Direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians are unworkable right now, but Trump can move toward this goal if he starts to lay the groundwork with five key steps:
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

34843. U.S. and Russia Relations Under Trump and Putin

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The detritus of the U.S.-Soviet Union relationship remains a part of the U.S.-Russian relationship. During the Cold War, U.S. policy went from containment to détente to confrontation. Today, the vicissitudes of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s engagement with the United States range from the productive—the Iran nuclear deal is one example—to confrontation—Ukraine is a good example—to doing a bit of both—Syria is an example of this. Putin wants Russia to not only have a seat at the table where decisions are made about global international issues but also wants the seat once held by the former Soviet Union.1 In other words, Putin wants a return to the great power politics of the Cold War and a free hand in the territory that was part of the Soviet Union. In this regard, Putin needs the United States as an adversary, though not necessarily as an enemy.2 This sort of dynamic allows him to maintain political support at home—he is protecting Russia from an outside threat—which allows him to avoid fixing an economy that is faltering3 and addressing the corruption that is a significant part of the political scene.4
Topic:: Corruption, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

34844. Syrian Immigrants in the United States

Author:: David Dyssegaard Kallick, Cyierra Roldan, and Silva Mathema
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Syrian immigrants and refugees have frequently been in the news over the past year, and not always in a positive light. President-elect Donald Trump lashed out against Syrians coming to the United States during his campaign, promising a ban on immigration from countries “compromised by terrorism,” calling for “extreme vetting” of immigrants from Muslim and Arab nations, and saying of people already granted refugee status who fled Syria, “If I win, they’re going back.”1 Considering this negative rhetoric, it may come as a surprise to some that immigrants from Syria who live in the United States are in fact doing very well. They are learning English, getting good jobs, owning homes, and starting businesses at impressive rates. These findings are reassuring and should provide the basis for more informed and thoughtful consideration of how to think about current and future Syrian immigrants and refugees. The Syrian immigrants in the study conducted for this issue brief are overwhelmingly people who came to the United States before the recent refugee crisis. Their success is a positive sign that the United States is a place that can provide opportunity for a wide range of people and shows that immigrants from Syria, like other immigrants, are making a real contribution to local economies around the country. Their success is also encouraging as the United States continues to accept refugees fleeing the horrific Syrian war zone. Those refugees will find that it can help to have a receiving community that includes people who speak the same language; share cultural and, in many cases, religious backgrounds; and understand both sides of the transition that ref
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Border Control, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34845. Undermining Violent Extremist Narratives in South East Asia: A How-to Guide

Author:: Sara Zeiger
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This report contains practical advice for civil society organizations and practitioners to develop effective narratives that counter the approaches of Daesh, Al-Qaida, Jemaah Islamiyah, and other violent extremists in the region. The guide also contains clear examples of counter-messages, case studies, and links to videos and websites that are relevant to supporting the development of counter-narratives.
Topic:: Civil Society, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

34846. Counter-Narratives for Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) in South East Asia

Author:: Sara Zeiger
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This meeting report is a summary and analysis of the preliminary results of the Expert workshop on South East Asia Collection of Counter-Narratives. Terrorism and violent extremism have been threats to South East Asia for decades, with local and international terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda historically establishing networks aligned with local conflicts. For example, Al-Qaeda has established connections with the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines; Lashkar Jundullah in Indonesia; Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) in Malaysia; and Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The terrorist attack in Jakarta in January 2016 has served as a reminder that terrorism in South East Asia is still a current and ongoing threat. Moreover, it revealed that ad-Dawla Islamiyah fi al-Iraq wa asSham (Daesh or Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham/ ISIS) is utilizing a similar model as Al-Qaeda has historically: establishing international networks and recruiting local actors in South East Asia to carry out their aims and objectives.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Networks, and Recruitment
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

34847. Brexit and Baltic Sea Security

Author:: Riina Kaljurand, Tony Lawrence, Pauli Järvenpää, and Tomas Jermalavicius
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The result of the UK’s June 2016 referendum on continued membership of the EU was unexpected and its consequences may be wide-ranging and grave. This report considers the impact of the UK’s exit from the European Union (‘Brexit’) on the security of Estonia, the Baltic Sea region and Europe more widely. Its focus is hard security – military security and defence. The UK is a defence and security actor of considerable prominence, able to contribute significant military capability to the organisations and operations in which it participates. It is, however, sceptical about the place of the EU in defence matters and has achieved a certain level of infamy for its perseverance in obstructing the further development of an EU defence dimension. One immediate consequence of the Brexit referendum result was a burst of ideas for further EU defence integration, which has led to an agreement on the first steps for implementing the EU Global Strategy in the area of security and defence. Not all member states, however, are enthusiastic for these ideas. Interviews conducted for this report with officials and researchers in the Baltic Sea states of Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and also in the UK found that interviewees believed that their countries shared with the UK approaches to security that would be harder to pursue after Brexit without the active support of the UK itself, and were largely sceptical about the need for further defence integration in the EU. In general, though, interviewees felt that the character of the European security environment post-Brexit is very difficult to forecast and the many factors that will contribute to shaping it are highly uncertain, complex, and intertwined. In these circumstances, scenario planning methodologies offer perhaps the best means of thinking about the future and informing policy decisions. The report thus identifies a range of possible post-Brexit scenarios as a vehicle for testing policies and identifying those likely to result in maximum benefit and minimum cost.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

34848. Soldiers of Peace: Estonia, Finland and Ireland in UNIFIL

Author:: Tony Lawrence, Tomas Jermalavicius, and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Estonian, Finnish and Irish troops serve under a combined battalion in the UNIFIL mission in south Lebanon. The size of the contribution these three states make to UN peacekeeping is perhaps not well known – they are respectively the fourth, second and first largest European contributors, per capita, to UN missions. For each of them, UNIFIL is their single largest contribution to peace support operations. In this report, commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, we examine the role of small states in United Nations peacekeeping through the lens of UNIFIL. Despite the different backgrounds and military cultures ofthe participating states, the Finnish/Irish Battalion is a successful partnership, bringing direct benefits to each of the countries involved. The partnership allows the three states to make the kind of contribution to peacekeeping which, for different reasons is an important aspect of
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Middle East, Finland, Estonia, North Africa, and Ireland

34849. Strengthening the Strategic Balance in the Baltic Sea Area

Author:: Kalev Stoicescu and Henrik Praks
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Defence Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) commissioned ICDS to conduct a study on the strategic balance in the Baltic Sea region with aim to contribute, in the run up to the Warsaw Summit, to the discussion on the optimum Alliance military posture in the region. Assumptions: Russia follows an increasingly aggressive anti-Western policy of revisionism and has become a direct and open threat to NATO. It is implementing an ambitious military modernisation programme and has demonstrated a tendency to use force against weaker neighbours. NATO´s overall superiority vis-à-vis Russia is not reflected equally in the Baltic Sea region, especially by taking into account geography and force postures. The Alliance military power is not sufficiently available in the region. Russia will strive to avoid a full-scale war with NATO, but it could be tempted, nevertheless, while being guided by misperceptions, to provoke and exploit a “local conflict” to test and undermine the Alliance. Key findings: Credible NATO deterrence in the eastern flank of the Alliance requires an optimum balance between deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial. Present NATO defence posture in the Baltic Sea region is inadequate for the effective deterrence by denial. Notable capability gaps exist as regards air and missile defence and naval presence. Russia has the ability to impose an A2/AD “bubble” over the Baltic states and large parts of the Baltic Sea. The major concentration of Russian forces in the areas surrounding Baltic states clearly exceeds defensive needs. Many of these units are offensive in their nature. Russia is frequently exercising military actions against Baltic states and their separation from the rest of the Alliance In military terms Belarus is an extension of Russian armed forces and performs an important geopolitical role, especially with regard to the “Suwalki gap”. The most likely worst scenario is not a “hybrid crisis” or limited incursion, but the separation and possible conquest of the Baltic states by conventional military means. Conclusions and recommendations The Russian threat has to be clearly acknowledged, treated as a strategic long-term challenge and taken fully into account in NATO’s defence planning and future posture in the Baltic Sea area. Effective deterrence requires a clearly increased presence of Allied forces in the region. NATO’s forward defence has to move from a symbolic to a meaningful presence. The Alliance’s forward presence must balance two key aspects: military effectiveness and multinationality. Military effectiveness requires the forces to be combat ready. The United States should exercise leadership by providing the framework and certain key capabilities, which would then be complemented by contributions from other Allies. In terms of manoeuvre formations, the baseline consideration should be brigade-sized units. A continuous presence of two brigades would be necessary, in addition to the indigenous forces of the Baltic countries. An increased presence of air assets, including transition from Air Policing mission to Air Defence, and maintenance of a robust naval presence in the Baltic Sea, is required. The Baltic countries will need to allocate additional resources for the Host Nation Support, including the development of necessary infrastructure. Alongside the strengthening of the forward presence component, the Alliance needs to refine capabilities for the deployment of reinforcements and follow-on forces, and for the neutralization of Russia´s A2/AD capabilities. The Allies should demonstrate their ability, in collective defence exercises, to rapidly move large numbers of troops to the Baltic region.
Topic:: NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

34850. Closing NATO’s Baltic Gap

Author:: Wesley K. Clark, Juri Luik, Egon Ramms, and Richard Shirreff
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: This report was prepared as an input to the forthcoming NATO’s Warsaw Summit by three former NATO commanders with considerable experience of Allied strategy, operations and capabilities: a former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), a former Deputy SACEUR and a former Commander of the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum. Political experience and context are provided by a former ambassador to NATO.
Topic:: NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

34851. How and Why Government, Universities, and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages of Scientists and High-Tech Workers

Author:: William Lazonick, Philip Moss, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: On June 2, 1965, under a mandate established by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the U.S. Congress created the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to enforce federal anti-discrimination laws related to employment. The expectation was that African Americans would be prime beneficiaries of the EEOC. There was no assumption that the EEOC, on its own, could reverse deep-rooted employment discrimination against blacks. But in the late 1960s there was optimism that, in combination with equal educational opportunity and the strong demand for unionized workers in the well-paid manufacturing jobs that marked the post-World War II decades, the EEOC could help to ensure that an ever-increasing number of blacks would ascend to the American middle class. African Americans as a group are better educated than they were in the 1960s, and, as discriminatory norms and practices have lessened, large numbers of college-educated blacks have experienced upward employment mobility into professional, technical, and administrative occupations. But the promise of a large-scale ascendancy of blacks to middle-class status, characterized by secure and well-paid employment, has not been fulfilled. Our basic thesis is that, in combination with the institutions of racism which remain widespread in American society, the erosion of secure and well-paid employment opportunities is a major reason for the persistence since the 1980s of African Americans as disproportionately disadvantaged. Our contribution to the larger debate on the economics of race is to focus on the role of corporate resource allocation as the prime determinant of the quantity and quality of employment opportunities in the economy. The decline of middle-class employment opportunities has adversely affected the majority of the U.S. labor force of all races, ethnicities, and genders. African Americans, however, have been more vulnerable than other demographic groups to this decline. U.S. institutions of corporate governance vest power over major resource-allocation decisions in the hands of senior executives, supported by their hand-picked corporate boards. Given the enormous size of the major business corporations and their centrality to economic activity, the resource-allocation decisions made by senior executives of major U.S. corporations profoundly influence the operation and performance of the economy as a whole—including the availability, or not, of secure and well-paid employment opportunities. The failure to include an analysis of corporate resource allocation and how it has changed over the past half century in the policy debate on income inequality is what we call the “equal employment opportunity omission.”
Topic:: Race, Employment, Inequality, Civil Rights, Legislation, and Equality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34852. The Value-Extracting CEO: How Executive Stock-Based Pay Undermines Investment in Productive Capabilities

Author:: William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The business corporation is the central economic institution in a modern economy. A company’s senior executives, with the advice and support of the board of directors, are responsible for the allocation of corporate resources to investments in productive capabilities. Senior executives also advise the board on the extent to which, given the need to invest in productive capabilities, the company can afford to make cash distributions to shareholders. Motivating corporate resource- allocation decisions are the modes of remuneration that incentivize and reward the top executives of these companies. A sound analysis of the operation and performance of a modern economy requires an understanding of not only how much these executives are paid but also the ways in which the prevailing system of executive pay influences their decisions to allocate corporate resources. In the United States since the last half of the 1980s the overriding goal of U.S. corporations has been to “maximize shareholder value,” with corporate performance measured by a company’s “total shareholder return”: percentage stock-price appreciation plus dividend yield. Also since the 1980s, the most important components of the total compensation of senior executives have been modes of stock-based pay in the forms of stock options and stock awards. This stock-based pay is structured to incentivize executives to make corporate allocation decisions that will boost the stock prices of the companies that employ them and reward them for achieving that objective. There are three drivers of stock prices: innovation, speculation, and manipulation. The first critical question that this paper addresses is which of these drivers, individually or in combination, contribute to a company’s stock-price performance. Then we can ask the second critical question: Does executive compensation reflect the success of the company in value creation, or the power of senior executives to engage in value extraction? The “value- extracting CEO” hypothesis posits that, in the United States, a significant portion of senior executive compensation rewards them for making decisions that foment speculation and manipulate stock prices, and thereby extract value for their own personal gain. In section four of the paper, I invoke the theory of innovative enterprise to support this hypothesis and debunk the dominant ideology that companies should be run to “maximize shareholder value.” Finally, I elaborate the policy implications for controlling the power of the value-extracting CEO, including a) banning stock buybacks, b) requiring executive compensation that rewards innovation rather than speculation and manipulation, and c) placing stakeholders representing households as taxpayers, workers, and consumers on boards of directors of publicly listed companies, along with shareholders who represent households as savers. An intellectual precondition for these reforms is the rejection of the ideology that companies should be run to maximize shareholder value, which means replacing agency theory with innovation theory as a mode of analyzing how the operation of an economy, supported by the strategies and structures of the business enterprises within it, can attain the objectives of stable and equitable economic growth.
Topic:: Leadership, Investment, Corporations, Redistribution, Stock Markets, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34853. The EuroZone “Debt” Crisis: Another “Center” – “Periphery” Crisis Under Financial Globalization?

Author:: Arturo O'Connell
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the Euro crisis in light of the experience of center-periphery relations over the last 40 years of renewed financial globalization. The crisis shows the characteristic pattern evident in so many other crises in the developing world: i.e. “boom” and “bust” phases of cross-border financial flows of massive magnitude, dominated by “push” factors from the center. Financial institutions at the center play a crucial role. The “boom” phase leads to serious imbalances in the peripheral economies - losses of competitiveness among them -ending in a “sudden-stop” that poses acute problems for the overexposed creditors, which then turn to their own governments for bailouts.
Topic:: Debt, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

34854. The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets

Author:: Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We examine whether personal wealth interests affect politicians’ decisions about stabilizing financial markets. We use the setting of the government’s support of financial institutions under the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. We find that the personal wealth interests of politicians are positively associated with voting in favor of the EESA. We implement several analyses to show that personal wealth interests rather than unobservable beliefs in the financial sector explain our result.
Topic:: Financial Markets, Economic Stability, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34855. The Mismeasure of Mammon: Uses and Abuses of Executive Pay Data

Author:: Matt Hopkins and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: On April 7, 2016, the Wall Street Journal ran an article headlined “CEO pay shrank most since financial crisis,” while on May 27, 2016, a similar New York Times story declared “Top CEO pay fell – yes, fell – in 2015.” Unfortunately, both the Journal and the Times mismeasured the actual take-home pay of each and every one of these CEOs in 2014 and 2015. The reason for this mismeasure is that both articles relied on “fair value” estimates of the stock-based pay of these CEOs as reported in the Summary Compensation Table of the definitive proxy statement (Form DEF 14A) that each publicly listed company files annually with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Yet the very same proxy statements also report the actual realized gains of these CEOs in the Option Exercises and Stock Vested Table. It is the realized gains on stock-based pay, not fair-value estimates, that enter into the total compensation that a CEO actually takes home and reports as income in his or her income-tax return. Moreover, including actual realized gains instead of estimated fair value of stock– based pay in the measure of total executive compensation can make a big difference. In 2014 average total compensation of the 500 highest-paid executives named on corporate proxy statements based on actual realized gains was $34.3 million, with 81 percent coming from stock-based pay. But average total compensation of the 500 highest paid based on estimated fair value was $19.3 million, with 62 percent attributable to stock- based pay. The excess of total actual realized-gains compensation over total estimated fair-value compensation was greatest in those years when the stock market was booming. Why would the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times report estimates of executive pay when they could be reporting the CEOs’ actual pay? In this paper, we answer this question by explaining the origins of the “fair value” estimates of stock-based pay and how the obsession with these estimates by the SEC, relying on the business-run Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), has relegated to statistical obscurity executives’ readily available, accurate, and actual realized gains from stock-based pay. We use Standard & Poor’s ExecuComp database to document that a) stock-based pay, in the forms of realized gains from stock options and stock awards, dominates both the size of and the changes over time in the total compensation of the highest-paid senior executives; and b) the fair-value estimates of stock-based pay tend to understate, often substantially, the realized gains from stock-based pay that these executives actually receive. An irony is that even critics of excessive executive pay, most notably the AFL-CIO on its Executive Paywatch website, use the fair-value estimates when the actual CEO compensation numbers would reveal a much larger ratio of CEO pay to the earnings of the average worker. Indeed, as we discuss in the conclusion to this paper, as mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, this mismeasure of executive pay has become institutionalized in U.S. government policy in the SEC’s Pay Ratio Disclosure Rule, which beginning in 2017 requires every company to publish the ratio of CEO to median-worker pay. Under this rule, the SEC requires companies to use the fair-value measure of CEO pay. The Pay Ratio Disclosure Rule is supposed to provide the public with a company-level indicator of income inequality. Instead it will tend to underestimate inequality, substituting fictitious estimates for actual known amounts of income that CEOs put into their bank accounts and declare in their income-tax returns.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Inequality, Income Inequality, Stock Markets, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34856. Political Lending

Author:: Ahmed Tahoun and Florin P. Vasvari
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Using a unique dataset provided by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), we document a direct channel through which financial institutions contribute to the net worth of members of the U.S. Congress, particularly those sitting on the finance committees in the Senate and the House of Representatives. These individuals report greater levels of leverage and new liabilities as a proportion of their total net worth, relative to when they are not part of the finance committee or relative to other congressional members. Politicians increase new liabilities by over 30% of their net worth in the first year of their finance committee membership. We do not find similar patterns for members of non-finance powerful committees. We find no evidence that finance committee members arrange new personal liabilities ahead of their appointments to the committees. Finance committee members also report liabilities with lower interest rates and longer maturities. Finally, focusing on banks that lend to U.S. Congress members, we find that the weaker performing financial institutions lend to more finance committee members and provide more new debt to these politicians. Our findings suggest that lenders may create political connections with finance committee members in an attempt to obtain regulatory benefits. !
Topic:: Debt, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Political Class, and Banking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

34857. Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter

Author:: Roman Frydman and Josh Stillwagon
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations. Although expectations are also in part extrapolative, this effect is transient. The paper’s approach underscores the central importance of opening models to structural change and imposing discipline on econometric analysis through specification testing. Our findings support the novel hypothesis that rational market participants, faced with unforeseeable change, base their forecasts on both fundamentals - the focus of the REH approach - and the psychological and technical considerations underlying behavioral finance.
Topic:: Markets, Economic Theory, Survey, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34858. On Historical Household Budgets

Author:: Brian A'Hearn, Nicola Amendola, and Giovanni Vecchi
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The paper argues that household budgets are the best starting point for investigating a number of big questions related to the evolution of the living standards during the last two-three centuries.
Topic:: Budget, Fiscal Policy, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34859. A Method for Agent-Based Models Validation

Author:: Mattia Guerini and Alessio Moneta
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper proposes a new method to empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data. The approach is based on comparing structures of vector autoregression models that are estimated from both artificial and real-world data by means of causal search algorithms. This relatively simple procedure is able to tackle both the problem of confronting theoretical simulation models with the data and the problem of comparing different models in terms of their empirical reliability. The paper also provides an application of the validation procedure to the Dosi et al. (2015) macro-model.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Theory, Data, and Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34860. Luigi Pasinetti and the Political Economy of Growth and Distribution

Author:: Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper provides a careful and synthetic overview of his contributions as well as a reconstruction of Pasinetti’s philosophical approach to economics as a science meant to serve humanity. Luigi Pasinetti’s work has deeply affected modern economic theory. His papers on the Cambridge Capital Controversy are world renowned. But he has made many other contributions to the economic debates of the last half century, offering not only detailed criticisms of mainstream economic theory, but also the elaboration of an alternative, more complete, and coherent framework for understanding growth and income distribution, structural change, and trade relations. He has also made notable contributions to discussions of economic policy. Pasinetti’s papers are very clearly written, but many are formidably technical and often build cumulatively on his previous work. This paper arises from a set of notes I wrote in July 2014 for Thomas Ferguson, the Research Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in New York, as he prepared for a series of meetings with Professor Luigi Pasinetti in Milan. Both he and Professor Geoffrey Harcourt strongly encouraged me to expand these. In the present paper the sequence is kept as in the original notes with some important additions while the text has been changed into a more discursive style.
Topic:: Political Economy, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34861. Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Production-based versus Consumption-based Evidence on Decoupling

Author:: Goher-Ur-Reham Mir and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Working Paper Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Production-based versus Consumption-based Evidence on Decoupling MAR 2016 | ENERGY | ENVIRONMENT SHARE WORKING PAPER SERIES BY Goher-Ur-Rehman Mir Ecofys Consulting Servaas Storm Senior Lecturer of Economics, Delft University of Technology DOWNLOAD PAPER We assess the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve hypothesis using internationally consistent and comparable production-based versus consumption-based CO2 emissions data for 40 countries (and 35 industries) during 1995-2007 from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The estimates for per capita CO2 emissions are truly comprehensive as these include all carbon emissions embodied in international trade and global commodity chains. Even if we find evidence suggesting a decoupling of production-based CO2 emissions and growth, consumption- based CO2 emissions are monotonically increasing with per capita GDP. We draw out the implications of these findings for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34862. Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?

Author:: Paul Davidson
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy. This paper explains that the Swan Diagram is completely incompatible with Keynes’s analysis. Instead Keynes advocated that the onus should be placed on creditor nations to correct international payments imbalances and thereby promote economic expansion internationally. Keynes warned against any deficit nation adopting a policy that tries to achieve a balance in its international payments by following any policy designed to reduce imports and increase exports. Such a policy sends a contractionary force onto the international economy and tends to injure all trading partners.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34863. Household Borrowing and the Possibility of “Consumption- Driven, Profit-Led Growth”

Author:: Mark Setterfield and Yun K. Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We first show that, with a Kaleckian structure that is consistent with Pasinetti (1962), the relationship between distribution and growth is more robust than conventional wisdom suggests. Next, we extend our model by incorporating borrowing and emulation effects into workers’ consumption behavior, under different assumptions about how debt is serviced. Our results demonstrate that borrowing and emulation transform the relationship between distribution and growth, giving rise to the possibility of a “consumption-driven, profit-led” growth regime (Kapeller and Schütz, 2015) and what we call the “paradox of inequality.” A key conclusion is that the wage-or -profit led characteristics of the growth process, rather than being invariant, can be altered by social constructs such as borrowing and consumption norms that change over time.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Profit, Homeownership, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34864. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail

Author:: Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia

34865. Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism (Jihadi Bios Project)

Author:: Michael Fredholm
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Secularism, Jihad, and Biography
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

34866. Communication Breakdown: Unraveling the Islamic State’s Media Efforts

Author:: Daniel Hamilton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report breaks down the Islamic State’s media activities through a two-fold approach. First, it examines a small number of declassified documents captured from the group’s predecessors to provide a baseline understanding its present-day media structure and operations. Second, through an examination of over 9,000 Islamic State official media products, this report offers detailed insight into what the group is saying and what a study of its propaganda can tell us about its strengths, weaknesses, and struggles. A number of findings emerge from these analyses. First, the Islamic State’s media network is adaptive and complex. Second, the group publishes products on a variety of themes, only one of which has to do with the violence for which the group is so well-known. Third, the frequency of the group’s products has declined significantly since its highpoint in the summer of 2015. Fourth, the Islamic State’s provincial media bureaus are not all equal in terms of their production content. Finally, although advances have been made in limiting the group’s media activities, there is still more than can be done to limit the group’s outreach efforts.
Topic:: Terrorism, Communications, Radicalization, Media, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

34867. Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology

Author:: Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In early October 2016, the group that calls itself the Islamic State killed two Kurdish soldiers with an explosive device hidden inside a drone. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones, but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a “program.” These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decisionmakers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat.
Topic:: Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Drones, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Colombia

34868. Structural Change in Wage Differentiation Patterns for Turkey in Terms of Working in the Same Industry

Author:: Bengi Yanık İlhan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the wage differentiation patterns in Turkey between couples who work in the same industry and those who work in different industries. The Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004 to 2014 are utilized as the main data. As the graphical representation verifies, regions can be grouped into three with respect to wave differentiation. In the first group, differentiation gap remains the same; for the second group, the gap increases; and for the last group, while the gap first decreases and disappears, it then increases again in favor of who the ones who work in the same industry. These findings are valid not only for females' but also males' mean hourly income. In the empirical analyses, the squared wage differences are clustered into three categories by using K-Means clustering method. Then, the behavior of each region changing from one cluster to the other are tracked and calculated with variations of this behavior. It is examined that not only eastern regions but also northern and landlocked regions changed their clusters during the last decade. In addition to that, their calculated variation of this behavior is higher compared to the ones for western, southern and seaside regions. If the variation is higher for the region, this is probably due to structural changes in those regions.
Topic:: Economics, Industry, Wage Income, and K-Means Clustering
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

34869. Forced population movements as a current ethical dilemma and the possibilities of collective action

Author:: C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The spirit of our times has been increasingly determined by refugee crisis and asylum institutions. If one could read the ongoing economic, political, environmental and demographic crises correctly, a refugee crisis would not have been treated as unexpected, unfortunate singular coincidence. A comprehensive, non-proscriptive approach with a collective, multilevel engagement must urgently be generated by the international community to create an all-encompassing legal consciousness. This paper seeks to delve into the question of the current refugee crisis from an historical point of view and recount the progress of the international refugee regime. In doing that it will also discuss the possibility of the launch of a collective action by the international community in the present. Refugee history is not progressive; it has not linearly proceeded towards comprehensive solutions. There are ruptures, retreats, changes of attitude -from positive to negative, from negative to inaction. Despite the growing global governance with the participation of international and non-governmental organizations, states are still the major actors in the refugee regime. The dominant role of the states in managing the refugee crisis creates an ethical dilemma, as is the case in every normative context state is involved. This paper, therefore, will finally assess the ethical dilemma unveiled by the recent EU-Turkey refugee deal.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Population, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

34870. The Problematic of Savings: The Case of Turkey as an Emerging Market Economy

Author:: Emre Alkin
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This study provides an analysis on the course of private savings in Turkish economy, which are considered to be the primary source of sustainable growth and development. It also discusses the way how growth model adopted by Turkey regulates the relationship between Public Expenditure, Taxes and Private Savings. Based on the results obtained from this analysis, it has been concluded that ever expanding public sector has a negative impact on private savings. As a long term solution, modifying or replacing the current growth model has been ofered. As a short term ofer, there is need to regulate the revenues and expenditures of all public institutions including the Central Government Budget with the support of the legislative authorities to eliminate the negative impact in question.
Topic:: Markets, Budget, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Investment, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

34871. The Impact of Print Media on Popular Culture: Umberto Eco’s Number Zero

Author:: Fatma Altınbaş Sarıgül
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: In the book published by Umberto Eco in 2015 called Numero Zero (Number Zero), on the basis of the assumption that the newspapers are able to establish various perceptions to the public in a conscious way, he has examined what kind of interventions some popular newspaper bosses have realized for the purpose of increasing their efciencies in the business world within the frame of a fction. According to Eco; popular culture is not in a sudden and unexpected structure (at least from its appearance) as it is in the cultural understanding of the modernism. By also taking the likes and demands of the wide masses it desires to be expanded into consideration, it aims a consensus between the culture producers and the culture consumers. In this way, it provides an easier and faster acceptance of the messages it sends by the masses. However, the motivation of the culture producers has derived from the market economy. The aimed thing is “proft”. Popular newspapers infict, transform and even make up the news in the cause of this proft. Eco operates by which methods the newspapers perform these destructions and reveals their tactics that direct the readers to certain assumptions with the quibbles. He tries to decipher the codes of the common popular perception delivered to the readers. According to Eco, “newspapers teach people how they should think; unfortunately, all we learn is fake and deformed”. Popular culture consists of a reference made by the fake that is replacing the truth to itself as mentioned in the simulation theory of Baudrillard, not a reality away from itself.
Topic:: Media, Umberto Eco, Popular Culture, and Newspapers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34872. 2016-2017 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:: WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, United Nations, Women, Leadership, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34873. Progressive Prudes: A survey of attitudes towards homosexuality & gender non-conformity in South Africa

Author:: Pierre Brouard, Melanie Judge, Mogopodi Lekonwe, Zethu Matabeni, Thabo Msibi, Xhanti Payi, Vasu Reddy, Finn Reygan, Ben Roberts, Carla Sutherland, and Niel Victor
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Other Foundation
Abstract:: There is a general belief that people in Africa are deeply homophobic and unaccepting of gender diversities, but what does the African public really think? The truth is that we haven’t really known because hardly any work has been done to gather and analyze the views of the public in a structured way in Africa. Now, the results of a ground-breaking survey of what all South Africans think about homosexuality and gender non-conformity – and how they behave, based on that – is available. For the first time, there is scientifically valid, nationally representative data to inform social dialogue and advocacy, public policies, and academic debate. The results confirm some common-sense realities which are often denied by those who oppose equality and social acceptance of gay and lesbian people – but which have not been tested in research on this scale up to now. The results also reveal some surprising new findings.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Discrimination, LGBT+, and Survey
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

34874. Does Material Hardship Affect Political Preferences? It Depends on the Political Context

Author:: Charlotte Cavaille and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: To what extent does material hardship affect political preferences? We argue that preference updating happens at the intersection of contextual pull factors, such as elite discourse, and individual push factors, such as an individual’s economic conditions. One key implication is that individuals are more likely to translate personal hardship into higher support for left-wing redistributive social policies when political elites actively compete over these issues. Using data from 22 European countries, we show that income is a better predictor of support for redistribution in countries where parties polarize over economic and redistributive issues. To unpack the causal relationship between preferences and elite behavior, we examine individual-level panel data from Great Britain, a country where elites have converged to the center on economic issues. We find that changes in the discursive context help understand both when material interest matters and how much it affects economic policy preferences.
Topic:: Politics, Poverty, Economy, and Elites
Political Geography:: Britain

34875. On the social appropriateness of discrimination

Author:: Abigail Barr, Tom Lane, and Daniele Nosenzo
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We experimentally investigate the relationship between discriminatory behaviour and the perceived social appropriateness of discrimination. We test the framework of Akerlof and Kranton (2000,2005), which suggests discrimination will be stronger when social norms favour it. Our results support this prediction. Using a Krupka-Weber social norm elicitation task, we find participants perceive it to be more socially appropriate to discriminate on the basis of social identities artificially induced, using a trivial minimal group technique, than on the basis of nationality. Correspondingly, we find that participants discriminate more in the artificial identity setting. Our results suggest norms and the preference to comply with them affect discriminatory decisions and that the social inappropriateness of discrimination can be a moderator of discriminatory behaviour.
Topic:: Politics, Economy, Discrimination, Norms, and Society
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34876. Economic Recessions and Congressional Preferences for Redistribution

Author:: Maria Carreri and Edoardo Teso
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We analyze the roots of politicians’ preferences for redistribution by exploring whether early life experiences have persistent, long-run effects on U.S. Members of Congress’ voting records. We study whether having experienced an economic recession during early adulthood affected their positions on redistribution-specific bills during the period 1957–2012. We find that politicians who experienced a recession hold more conservative positions on redistribution, even compared to members of the same party in the same legislature. We rule out alternative accounts and show that experiencing a recession directly affects future politicians’ personal preferences. In light of recent empirical evidence showing that voters become more supportive of redistribution following a recession, our findings suggest that macroeconomic shocks have a polarizing effect: recessions can create an ideological wedge between voters and their future representatives.
Topic:: Politics, Economy, Redistribution, and Recession
Political Geography:: United States of America

34877. How Much Is That Star in the Window? Professorial Salaries and Research Performance in UK Universities

Author:: Gianni De Fraja, Giovanni Facchini, and John Gathergood
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Using individual level data on the salary of all UK university professors, matched to results on the performance of academic departments from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework, we study the relationship between academic salaries and research performance. The UK higher education sector is particularly interesting because professorial salaries are unregulated and the outcome of the official research evaluation is a key financial concern of universities. To frame our analysis, we present a simple model of university pay determination, which shows that pay level and pay inequality in a department are positively related to performance. Our empirical results confirm these theoretical predictions; we also find that the pay-performance relationship is weaker for the more established and better paying universities. Our findings are also consistent with the idea that higher salaries have been used by departments to recruit academics more likely to improve their performance.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Inequality, Research, Higher Education, and Academia
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

34878. Plaintive Plaintiffs: The First and Last Word in Debates

Author:: Elena D'Agostino and Daniel J. Seidmann
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Plainti¤s/prosecutors present their evidence before defendants in common law trials. We analyze a model of trials with the following properties. If litigants share a common pool of evidence then they never prefer to present …rst, but may prefer to present second. However, litigants may prefer to present …rst if they have di¤erent available evidence because presenting …rst replicates the follower’s ex ante optimal commitment. If litigants share available evidence then a litigant cannot prefer the option to choose the order after observing the available evidence over always presenting second; and it may prefer to always present second over having the option to choose the order.
Topic:: Politics, Law Enforcement, Courts, and Debates
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

34879. Glass half full? Or half empty? Civil service professionalization in the Western Balkans between successful rule adoption and ineffective implementation

Author:: Jan-Hinrik Meyer-Sahling
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper examines the professionalization of the civil service in the Western Balkans in the context of European integration. It focuses on the fit of civil service systems with European principles of administration as applied by SIGMA and the European Commission to accession states. The analysis distinguishes ten domains of civil service management and three levels of institutionalisation including formal rules, the quality of implementation and the attitudes of civil servants towards European principles. Based on extensive documentary research, personal interviews and a web-based survey of ministerial civil servants, the analysis reveals that formal-legal frameworks fit the European principles to a considerable extent. The main challenge for civil service developments in the Western Balkans concerns the ineffective implementation of formal rules. Even if formal rules and procedures are routinely applied, they do not reach expected outcomes such as merit selection and impartial behaviour of civil servants in policy-making and implementation. Finally, it is shown that civil servants partially support the European principles. In particular, discretionary approaches to civil service management have become increasingly popular in the region. The conclusion explores potential explanations of the emerging pattern of civil service professionalization in the Western Balkans.
Topic:: Regional Integration, Civil Servants, and Professionalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

34880. Choosing Your Battles Wisely? Activist Preferences, Party Size and Issue Selection

Author:: Chitralekha Basu
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper seeks to explain why parties emphasize particular positional issues in their campaigns – a hitherto understudied topic. I find that the policy preferences of activists are an important influence on party platforms, and therefore, party emphasis decisions on positional issues. However, my analyses reveal party size to be a more important determinant of parties’ emphasis strategies than whether a party is ‘mainstream’ or ‘niche’. Large mainstream parties—termed ‘major parties’—de-emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme, whereas both small mainstream and small niche parties—‘minor parties’—emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme. Further, large niche parties appear to behave more like large mainstream parties than small niche parties in this respect. Using a variety of empirical approaches, I show that these findings can be explained as the consequence of vote-maximizing choices made by parties responding to different electorates. Conversely, they cannot easily be explained by strategic error or dogmatism on the part of some parties, or by the selection of activists into parties. These patterns hold across Western and Eastern Europe, suggesting that, in a variety of information environments, the appearance of policy moderation may be viewed as advantageous by major parties, and as potentially disadvantageous by minor parties.
Topic:: Elections, Political Parties, and Activism
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe

34881. Labor Market Participation, Political Ideology and Distributive Preferences

Author:: Simona Demel, Abigail Barr, Luis Miller, and Paloma Ubeda
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: Using a political-frame-free, lab-in-the-field experiment, we investigate the effects of employment status and political ideology on preferences for redistribution. The experiment consists of a real-effort task, followed by a four-player dictator game. In one treatment, initial endowments depend on participants’ performance in the real-effort task, i.e., they are earned, in the other, they are randomly determined. We find that being employed or unemployed affects revealed redistributive preferences, while the political ideology of the employed and unemployed does not. In contrast, the revealed redistributive preferences of students are strongly related to their political ideologies. The employed and right-leaning students redistribute earnings less than windfalls, the unemployed and left-leaning students make no such distinction. We conclude that, when people are not exposed to the sometimes harsh realities of the labor market, their redistributive preferences depend on their political ideology but, when they are exposed, the effect of those realities overrules their ideology.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Employment, Ideology, Labor Market, and Redistribution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34882. Ukrainian Identity: Changes, Trends, Regional Aspects

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The Razumkov Centre has been studying the identity of Ukrainian citizens since 2005, when for the first time in history of an independent Ukraine distinctions between the society’s different identity groups have created a foundation for a large-scale socio-political conflict known as the Orange Revolution. These studies, conducted in the period of 2005-2009 in Ukraine and its separate regions, including Crimea, uncovered a number of special features of Ukrainian identity, the major ones being: contradictions in the process of forming a common, national civic identity and vagueness of its prospects; presence of an opposing trend – formation of regional sub-national identities on the basis of regional localisation of different linguistic, cultural, national and ethnic, denominational identities of citizens in various parts of Ukraine. The studies have also found interdependence and cross impact between different identity distinctions, in particular linguistic and cultural, and the civic identity.1 Subsequently, starting from 2010, a whole number of events of different scale have taken place in the history of Ukraine due to internal and external factors. These events have, on the one hand, significantly influenced national identity formation in Ukraine and, on the other hand, have themselves become the consequence of the existing trends. In particular, the Razumkov Centre has expressed warnings that since a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens has not been fully formed yet, there is a risk of sub-national identities of some communities integrating with other foreign national identities. Unfortunately, this came true, with such tragic consequences as annexation of Crimea by Russia, attempts by several Eastern and Southern regions to split away from Ukraine (known as the “Novorossiya project”) and the armed conflict in Donbas with thousands of casualties. Results of opinion polls conducted in 2014-2015 demonstrate changes in different dimensions of Ukrainian citizens’ identity. Along with this, due to the circumstances, these changes are of different, at times inconsistent nature, and consequently may bring different outcomes for further development of Ukrainian society and statehood. This creates a need for deeper comprehensive study of Ukrainian identity, changes that occurred during 2006-2015, current processes and trends. The Razumkov Centre’s Project “Identity of Ukrainian Citizens: Changes, Challenges and National Unity Prospects” aims to solve these tasks. A national opinion poll was conducted as part of this project.2 The presented informational and analytical materials contain main results of this poll in terms of different aspects of citizens’ identity3 (“identities”) and their attitude to major topical problems in the society,4 and also describe aspects of identity of citizens from different regions and social groups.
Topic:: Politics, Citizenship, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

34883. Constitutional Process: Current Results, Risks and Prospects

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The current stage of the constitutional process was initiated by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in March 2015 with the establishment of the Constitutional Commission.1 Already on 1 July 2015, the Parliament registered the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on decentralisation” (Reg. No. 2217a), developed by the Constitutional Commission and submitted by the President of Ukraine. On 31 August 2015, the day this bill was approved, grenades exploded in front of the Parliament on the Constitution Square. The presence in this bill on decentralisation of the controversial Paragraph 18 “Transitional Provisions” did not allow entering the process of final adoption of amendments to the Constitution (on decentralisation) in compliance with requirements of Article 155. On 25 November 2015, the subsequent Bill “On Amendments to the Constitution – on justice” (Reg. No. 3524) was registered in Parliament. In February 2016, the bill was approved, and on 2 June 2016, finally adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. For the first time since the “political reforms” of December 2004, significant amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine were legally introduced. The adoption of a decision by Parliament to amend the Constitution of Ukraine in the part of justice, did not complete the reform of the judiciary. The fact that a number of amendments to the Constitution raised deep concerns among representatives of the expert community, and even more the judicial community, cannot be ignored. However, a number of updated provisions of the Constitution, implemented in effective mechanisms of special laws, are capable of positively influencing the judiciary. In this regard, firstly, the adoption by Parliament of the Law of Ukraine “On Judicial System and Status of Judges” in an unconstitutional way, with a gross violation of the Verkhovna Rada requirements cannot but cause concern. Second, the main content of the implemented law, introduced to the Parliament without obtaining opinions of the Scientific Experts Office or the Venice Commission, or discussing it in the expert community, can cause a real chaos in the process of implementing constitutional changes. The question remains uncertain about the prospects of the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on human rights and freedoms” prepared by the Working Group of the Constitutional Commission. The analytical report has summarized theoretical grounds of regulations contained in the draft law. Since the work on the draft amendments to the Constitution was completed by the Working Group, the Constitutional Commission must make a final conclusion as to its readiness for submission to the President, who will decide on the introduction of a relevant bill to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Both aspects of constitutional amendments were analysed in the study by the Razumkov Centre, which is reflected in the content of the Analytical Report.
Topic:: Human Rights, Reform, Constitution, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

34884. Consolidation of Ukrainian Society: Challenges, Opportunities, Pathways

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: This issue of the journal summarises findings of the second stage of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. Studies undertaken as part of the first project stage helped to identify the shifts that took place in various aspects of national identity between 2005 and 2015, including those brought about by the Revolution of Dignity and provoked by the Russian aggression against Ukraine. These studies paint a fairly detailed portrait of identities of Ukrainian citizens, including cross-regional differences and specifics attributable to citizens belonging to various social groups.1 Certain important issues remain insufficiently explored, particularly the hierarchy of various types of identity, the correlation between civil, national and ethnic components of identity, how citizens in different regions perceive one another, public assessment of the significance of cross-regional differences for the country’s future, etc. Since the previous public opinion survey, notable changes have taken place at the state and society levels as well as in the international political landscape. These changes have affected the public mood. They mainly have to do with falling living standards, a declining level of trust in government institutions, political parties and individual politicians, active attempts of the aggressor state to destabilise situation in Ukraine, lack of progress in resolving the Donbas conflict and returning Crimea, a somewhat decreased level of attention to Ukraine from the international community coupled with Russia’s growing influence on political processes in certain Western countries, the conflicting positions of some EU countries on Ukraine’s European future, certain aspects of Ukraine’s relations with the EU as well as Russia’s role in the ongoing armed conflict. With these factors in mind, the Razumkov Centre has outlined the following key research objectives for the second stage of the project: • Obtain a more detailed picture of how citizens understand specific aspects of identity (particularly civil and socio-cultural identity); • Assess the intensity and nature of the impact these socio-political and international trends have on various identity aspects of citizens, primarily the civil aspect; • Study how citizens in different regions of Ukraine perceive one another, explore the specifics of this perception and the existing beliefs and stereotypes; • Identify the specifics of the viewpoints that residents in different regions have on factors contributing to the division or consolidation of society, and assess their potential impact; • Learn about the attitudes of citizens to possible political approaches and specific efforts in “sensitive” areas, particularly those concerning language, cultural and national policies, and their impact on national unity; • Analyse the experience of specific post-Soviet and post-socialist countries of Europe in matters of shaping and preserving national identity. Formulated in this way, objectives are aligned with overriding goal of the second project stage: to devise effective and theoretically sound political tools adapted to the existing social reality (i.e., the substance of public policy and methods for implementing it) intended for shaping a common national identity among Ukrainian citizens, which would accelerate the process of consolidation of Ukrainian society, help achieve mutual understanding and support national unity.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Citizenship, Identity, and Society
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Baltic States

34885. Russia's "Hybrid" War -- Challenge and Threat for Europe

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine that started in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and is still going on in Donbas, demonstrated critical vulnerability of the Western world to Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” policy. The West, divided and burdened with internal problems (“migrant crisis”, Brexit) and external challenges (D. Trump “effect”, Syrian war), is experiencing a critical deficit of unity and coordination of actions toward Russia, lack of public awareness as to the nature and goals of Putin’s regime, fears of nuclear confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the far-right political movements, Euroscepticism, populism, isolationism – i.e., “LePenisation” of Europe – may gain ground after the elections in France and Germany. (Quite telling in this context have been the recent elections in Bulgaria and Moldova, where pro-Russian socialists won). All of this is happening amid total depreciation of global and regional security structures, and is threatening not only with escalation of conflicts on the continent, but also with destruction of the European community. The Western world has not generated adequate and effective means, mechanisms and policies to counter Russia’s hybrid expansion. On the contrary, there is an increasing threat of disintegration of a single “sanctions front”, which Kremlin will view with impunity and encouragement for further active actions. The conflict in Syria has proven that Kremlin’s imperial policy is not limited to the post-Soviet space, and Ukraine is just a springboard for further expansion. In the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become deep-rooted and long-term causing tectonic changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia’s aggression has inflicted unprecedented human, territorial, economic losses on Ukraine, and from the entire range of bilateral relations (not to mention the war itself), for a long time to come has left Ukraine only the format of confrontational coexistence with Russia – limited, forced, and cold – depending on the unfolding situation. The Russia-Ukraine hybrid war is not a local, peripheral conflict. Kremlin’s aggression poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty, but also to the unity of the EU and, in general, to the political structure of Europe. Therefore, finding adequate, effective forms of response, developing a common policy of countering Russia’s expansion is critically important.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Expansion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

34886. Kurdistan: An Invisible Nation

Author:: Stefano Maria Torelli
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, Kurdistan is one of the hottest geopolitical areas in the Middle East. It is a land inhabited by over 30 million people, representing one of the largest stateless "nations" worldwide. The Kurds play a crucial role in the region, and the so-called "Kurdish factor" has constantly been a key ingredient of recent Middle East crises: from the wars in Iraq under Saddam Hussein to the fight against the so-called Islamic State. Not to mention the strategic relevance that Kurdistan assumes as one of the oil-richest areas in the region. What new balances would an eventual victory of Kurds over IS create? What are the long-term goals of the Kurdish community? How to reach a solution to the Kurdish question able to satisfy all the actors involved? Can we envisage a common future for the Kurds or will they remain tied to the political destinies of the countries they live in? These are just some of the questions that this report tries to answer collecting contributions from leading international experts.
Topic:: Minorities, Geopolitics, Islamic State, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

34887. China Dream: Still Coming True?

Author:: Alessia Amighini
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: At a time when the economic transition in China is casting shadows on the weak world recovery, and the country is further increasing military spending at double-digit rates, it is key to assess how far President Xi has gone in fulfilling the “China Dream” of ascendance to cultural, economic and military power. Even more important is to try to figure out what the substance of the “China Dream” is likely to be in the near future. The current risk is that the Chinese people and the Chinese government are dreaming different dreams, and that Xi’s “China Dream” might be more a dream for the country and much less so for the people. China has recently reached a series of symbolic milestones: the Yuan’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket; the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); the market economy status by a number of countries. The 2016 Chinese G20 Presidency will provide a timely occasion for China to better define its role in global economic governance. However, progress on reforms is lagging behind expectations and international tensions are on the rise. This volume explores the viability of the China Dream and analyzes its major challenges.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Xi Jinping, Military, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34888. Jihadist Hotbeds. Understanding Local Radicalization Processes

Author:: Arturo Varvelli
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Recent analyses reveal that the vast majority of jihadists come from or have some connections with specific areas or districts within different states. One can describe them as local/regional “hotbeds” of extremism. Molenbeek in Belgium, Gornje Maoče and Ošve in Bosnia-Hercegovina, Minneapolis in the US, Kasserine and Ben Guerdane in Tunisia, Sirte and Derna in Libya, Sinai in Egypt, Pankisi Valley and Dagestan in the Caucasus: each area has unique characteristics that lead to “exporting” fighters or creating new IS-controlled zones. Starting from the debate on the origin and nature of jihadist militancy that is dividing the most important scholars of Islam, this report outlines a broad spectrum of radicalization factors leading to the emergence of jihadists hotbeds, such as poverty, unemployment, lack of job prospects, juvenile delinquency, trafficking and smuggling, socio-political, economic and physical marginalization, the role of Salafist ideology as well as the influence of brotherhood networks. All these elements have been frequently highlighted as factors or triggers that could contribute to explaining dynamics of radicalization leading to active violent militancy under the ideals of jihadism. To get a better sense of both the differences and similarities amongst the various hotbeds, the report provides an overview of some of the largest contributors to Islamic extremists and foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Jihad, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34889. Putin's Russia: Really Back?

Author:: Aldo Ferrari
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Attempts by Washington and Brussels to push Russia to the fringes of global politics because of the Ukrainian crisis seem to have failed. Thanks to its important role in mediating the Iranian nuclear agreement, and to its unexpected military intervention in Syria, Moscow proved once again to be a key player in international politics. However, Russia’s recovered assertiveness may represents a challenge to the uncertain leadership of the West. This report aims to gauging Russia’s current role in the light of recent developments on the international stage. The overall Russian foreign policy strategy is examined by taking into account its most important issues: Ukraine and the relationship with the West; the Middle East (intervention in Syria, and ongoing relations with Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia); the development of the Eurasian Economic Union; the Russian pivot towards Asia, and China in particular. The volume also analyzes if and to what extent Moscow can fulfill its ambitions in a context of falling oil prices and international sanctions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Syria

34890. Europe: No Migrant's Land?

Author:: Maurizio Ambrosini
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean region has always been marked by intense migration flows. Over the last few years, political instability in Middle East and North Africa countries, coupled with longstanding demographic and economic trends, have caused a sudden upsurge of migrants reaching Europe’s shores. Despite scattered shows of solidarity, however, the European response has proven slow and fragmented. This volume offers a complete and encompassing analysis of the current state of play in terms of migration flows across the Mediterranean and policy responses by European transit and receiving countries. Attention is specifically devoted to ongoing debates about the management of mixed migration, the peculiar profile and needs of asylum seekers, migrants’ labour market access, and integration policies in Europe.
Topic:: Demographics, Migration, Refugees, Economy, Asylum, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

34891. Populism on the rise. Democracies under challenge?

Author:: Alberto Martinelli
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s Republican presidential nomination and the Brexit have shocked and somehow caught by surprise the entire world. A growing sense of concern or even alarm is now spreading across Western countries and is putting traditional democratic processes to the test. In particular, when looking at the political landscape in Europe, populism may turn out to be an unprecedented game-changer. Populists parties came to power in Poland and Hungary, they are in coalition governments in Switzerland and Finland, top the polls in France and the Netherlands, and their support is at record highs in Sweden. Not to mention the recent rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the successful story of Syriza, Podemos and of the FSM in Southern Europe. The Report explores the rise of populism in Europe and the US by analyzing its root causes, the rationale behind its success, its impact on traditional political parties and, more broadly, on Western democracies. It also draws some policy recommendations to tackle this widespread challenge.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

34892. South Africa. The Need for Change

Author:: Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Has the new South Africa – once an inspiring “rainbow nation” – failed the expectations it had generated? Is the country now in a crisis? Two decades after the end of the apartheid regime, Africa’s southernmost state faces multiple political, economic and social challenges. A lackluster growth performance is compounded by mounting corruption and political turbulence, as well as by the frustration of many ordinary citizens who expected much more rapid social and economic improvement. Labour strikes, student protests and anti-immigrant riots have all been on the rise. As a clear sign of increasing dissatisfaction, uncertainty and decline, the ruling African National Congress recently ran into its worst electoral result ever – if still only at local levels. Meanwhile, Jacob Zuma’s embattled presidency, marred by allegations of corruption and political cronyism, sent South Africa’s international image plummeting alongside the Rand, the national currency. This volume sheds light on the current difficulties and discusses future prospects. The “new” South Africa is a country in dire need for change.
Topic:: Corruption, Elections, Economic Growth, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: South Africa and Africa

34893. Assessing Haiti’s Electoral Legitimacy Crisis – Results of a 2016 Survey

Author:: Athena R. Kolbe and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: This Strategic Note presents the results of a national survey of 1,766 Haitian adults conducted between January 17 and 22, 2016. Respondents were asked about their participation in voting, barriers to participating in the voting process, their choice for president, and their opinions about a variety of possible solutions to Haiti’s electoral impasse. It finds that there is widespread pessimism about the direction the country. It also detects that voter turn-out in October 2015 was likely considerably less than officially reported. However, the survey shows that most Haitians would vote if they were confident that elections were free and fair. The most important issues that Haitians believe the next president should tackle are jobs and the economy, followed by corruption, regaining trust, and education.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Elections, Legitimacy, and Survey
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

34894. A Path Forged Over Time

Author:: Eduarda Passarelli Hamann
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: This Strategic Note identifies key thematic features of Brazil’s long history of United Nations operations, from the first one, in 1947, through present-day operations around the world. An examination of the country’s experience in peacekeeping yields some important lessons – both for Brazil and for the future of peacekeeping and UN operations as a whole. Given today’s geopolitical climate, identifying appropriate norms and standards in peacekeeping efforts is more important than ever in order to ensure sound decision-making on the ground.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

34895. Enter and exit: everyday state practices at Somaliland’s Hargeisa Egal International Airport

Author:: Tobias Gandrup
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The airport of Hargeisa, the capital of the officially unrecognized Republic of Somaliland, has been refurbished and upgraded over the past years in order to live up to international standards for security, immigration control and handling. In a new DIIS working paper, Tobias Gandrup (University of Antwerp) describes the contested role of the airport since colonial times and the collapse of the Somali state in 1991. By analysing the everyday practices of the airport as a way of 'performing the state', controlling entry and exit, Gandrup shows how the international standards act as external drivers for the formation of a new state in Somaliland. In this way, the licensed airport also provides a degree of international recognition to Somaliland.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Airports
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

34896. Governing economies in areas of limited statehood: anthropological perspectives

Author:: Jacob Rasmussen and Kirstine Strøh Varming
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In many areas across the world, state-institutions have limited reach and capacity. But how are economies organizedd in such areas and how can we study them? These questions are at the core of the research program, GOVSEA. In a new working paper, Jacob Rasmussen and Kirstine Strøh Varming, Roskilde University, discuss ways of studying the everyday governance of economic activity, paying particular attention to contributions from economic anthropology. Common to these is the insight that usual categories - such as formal/informal, state/non-state, and rational/moral – are of little use when we try to understand how and by whom economies are governed. The authors use examples from Somali East Africa to illustrate these different approaches. The Working Paper is part of a new series from the research program GOVSEA (Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa).
Topic:: Migration, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Somalia, and Somaliland

34897. On taxes and suspicion: ambivalences of rule and the politically possible in contemporary Hargeisa, Somaliland

Author:: Jorge Antonio Campos
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In a new DIIS Working Paper, “On taxes and suspicion: ambivalences of rule and the politically possible in contemporary Hargeisa, Somaliland”, J. Antonio Campos from the University of Chicago explores the world of tax-collectors and fiscal officers in Hargeisa, the capital of the internationally unrecognized Republic of Somaliland. Based on extensive fieldwork, Campos interprets the interaction between bureaucrats and citizens in terms of “suspicion”, an elaborate feeling of ambivalence among tax officials. Interestingly, therefore, tax collection in Somaliland can be understood as operating without the recourse to state force. Tax officials come out rather as agents of a common collective project of the new state, thus representing the hope of a political future without coercion. The WP is part of a new series from the GOVSEA research program (Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa).
Topic:: Development, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

34898. Corridors of trade and power: economy and state formation in Somali East Africa

Author:: Tobias Hagmann and Finn Stepputat
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite ongoing conflicts, Somalia’s economy has evolved considerably since the disintegration of the central state in 1991. However, our knowledge and understanding of how transnational Somali economic life is organised and how it influences political dynamics remains limited. As part of the research programme “Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa” (GOVSEA) this working paper provides an overview of the existing literature on the subject. This paper presents a summary analysis of key features of the Somali economy and proposes a periodisation of the evolution of Somali business between 1991 and today: from the heavily informalised economy of the 1980s, the violent markets of the early 1990s and the subsequent ‘duty-free shop’ period, to the emergence of a more regulated economy with a significant development of multi-clan shareholder companies since the mid-2000s. In doing so, this paper offers numerous empirical and analytical insights into the relationship between trade, violence and regulation. With ongoing and future research on this topic in mind, we suggest a series of research questions and conceptualise the nexus between everyday economic activities and state formation dynamics. Finally, we propose a ‘corridor approach’, focussing on transnational corridors of trade and transport that traverse Somali East Africa, as a way of grasping the complex and dynamic interactions between state formation and everyday economic activity.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Non State Actors, Economy, State Formation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

34899. Argentina and the United Nations in a Changing World

Author:: Ban Ki-moon
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: Argentina has shown a strong commitment to multilateralism - as a troop contributing country, as a proponent of South-South and humanitarian cooperation, as an advocate for disarmament and a supporter of sustainable development.
Topic:: United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, Disarmament, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

34900. Russia and the West (1853-2016): A permanent conflict?

Author:: Leonardo Frisani
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: The current diplomatic and military crisis over Ukraine has led many commentators to talk about a new Cold War (Lucas, 2014). This essay, analysing the diplomatic relations and geo-political struggle between Russian and the West from the Crimean War onwards, will try to show that the present conflict, far from being caused by contingent reasons, has its enduring roots in the historical tensions over strategic areas of common Western and Russian interest, not least in Crimea itself.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS