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38702. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability
- Author:
- Jeronim Capaldo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and United Nations
38703. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development
- Author:
- Solomon Dersso
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan
38704. Improving UN Capacity for Rapid Deployment
- Author:
- H. Peter Langille
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Rapid deployment of large peace operations into conflict zones worldwide is a demanding process. Within the United Nations system, the process is further complicated and frequently delayed by a long list of tasks, including the need to seek the support of member states for the deployment of their national personnel and resources. Yet, rapid deployment remains an important standard with specified response times and an objective that underpins many related reforms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
38705. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria
38706. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector
- Author:
- Bassem Bouguerra
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Tunisia
38707. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
38708. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World
- Author:
- Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
38709. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
38710. Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era
- Author:
- James Hasik and Mark Revor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The democratized innovations of today's hacker era have a dark side: democratized destruction, underwritten by advanced information technologies, and spread by highly empowered individuals with very undemocratic intent. The breadth, pace, diffusion, and potential for concealment of these advances may be creating new vulnerabilities for the same technologically advanced societies that spawned them. Fortunately, the United States and its allies have substantial experience with this mode of innovation and unique resources for developing countermeasures. In "Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era," Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security Nonresident Senior Fellow James Hasik and Lieutenant Colonel Mark Revor, a 2013-2014 Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, recommend three courses of action: leveraging capital investments with low marginal cost extensions; monitoring the global progress of open innovation; and supporting domestic grassroots developments in information-intensive systems.
38711. NATO's Cyber Capabilities: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow
- Author:
- Jason Healey and Klara Tothova Jordan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO's central missions of collective defense and cooperative security must be as effective in cyberspace as in the other domains of air, land, sea, and space.
38712. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Big Opportunities for Small Business
- Author:
- Garrett Workman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations underway, there is an increasing focus on the prospective economic benefits and potential policy changes resulting from an ambitious agreement. While modernizing trade rules will benefit businesses of all sizes on both sides of the Atlantic, TTIP will be especially critical for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that often struggle with the numerous administrative, legal, and regulatory barriers to exporting that slow down trade and hinder innovation. Given their limited financial and human resources, small businesses stand to gain exponentially from a transatlantic agreement that streamlines regulatory and customs processes.
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
38713. Confidence-Building Measures in Cyberspace: A Multistakeholder Approach for Stability and Security
- Author:
- Jason Healey, Klara Tothova Jordan, John C. Mallery, and Nathaniel V. V. Youd
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are an instrument of international politics, negotiated by and applied between states to strengthen international peace and security by reducing and eliminating the causes of mistrust, fear, misunderstanding, and miscalculations that states have about the military activities of other states.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and America
38714. The Shale Revolution and the New Geopolitics of Energy
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The shale revolution, the combination of computer-aided horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing known as “fracking,” already has had a profound multidimensional impact. After the breakthroughs in information technology (IT) and biotechnology, shale may be the most transformational technological change so far in the twenty-first century. This report argues that shale gas and tight oil has: begun to radically shift global energy markets and redraw the global energy map, forty years after the Arab oil embargo; dramatically shifted the outlook for US energy security and our national strategic calculus; altered geopolitics, making the Western Hemisphere—Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil—the new center of gravity for oil and gas production; turned the future of oil debate on its head; debate about whether or not “peak oil” has been reached is over. Now the issue is whether or not we are approaching “peak demand;” has altered market economics to slow the deployment of wind, solar, and nuclear energy and a transition to a post-petroleum economy; yet also reduced US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing coal as a source of electricity; strengthened the US economy with cheap gas prices triggering a resurgence in US manufacturing and; potentially repositioned the United States vis-à-vis the Middle East and Asia.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
38715. Online Voting: Rewards and Risks
- Author:
- Peter Haynes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a world of near-infinite computing power, ubiquitous connectivity, cloud-based services, and big data, the fact that the vast majority of countries holds elections using paper ballots appears an anomaly.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
38716. The Future of US Extended Deterrence in Asia to 2025
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- US extended deterrence in Asia, involving the full spectrum from nuclear to conventional capabilities, faces an array of new challenges. Indeed, a dynamic, volatile, and more complex security landscape in the Asia-Pacific and globally has heightened regional security concerns and given deterrence and strategic stability a renewed importance in the period extending to 2025.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
38717. Mexico's Energy Reform: Mexico "Ready to Launch"
- Author:
- David L. Goldwyn, Neil R. Brown, and Megan Reilly Cayten
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Mexico is poised for an energy renaissance. It has ample reserves of oil and natural gas, experience in energy production, promising economic fundamentals, and industrial expertise. In recent decades, Mexico has suffered from declining oil production, insufficient gas supply, and high electricity prices.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
38718. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications
- Author:
- Daniel H. Rosen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- China
38719. Implementing Structural Reforms in Abenomics: How to Reduce the Cost of Doing Business in Japan
- Author:
- Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Takeo Hoshi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Improving the environment for business is an important part of the growth strategy of Abenomics. As the KPI (Key Performance Indicator) for this effort, the Abe Administration aims to improve Japan's rank in the World Bank Doing Business Ranking from the current #15 among high-income OECD countries to one of the top three. This paper clarifies what it takes for Japan to be among top three countries in terms of ease of doing business. By looking at details of the World Bank Doing Business ranking, we identify various reforms that Japan could implement to improve the ranking. Then, we classify the reforms into four groups depending on whether the reform requires legal changes and whether the reform is likely to face strong political resistance. By just doing the reforms that do not require legal changes and are not likely to face strong political opposition, Japan can improve the ranking to 9th. To be in the top 3, Japan would need to implement all the reforms except for those that require changing the laws and are likely to face strong political resistance, even under the unrealistic assumption that the other countries do not reduce the cost of doing business. Thus, in order to be one of the top three countries among OECD countries in terms of ease of doing business, Japan would most likely need to carry out all the reforms identified in this paper.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Japan
38720. Countering Sanctions: The Unequal Geographic Impact of Economic Sanctions in North Korea
- Author:
- Yong Suk Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how an autocratic regime domestically counters the impact of economic sanctions. A stylized model predicts that, as long as non-compliance is not too costly, the autocrat redistributes resources to the more valuable urban area when sanctions increase. Empirically, I examine the case of North Korea. I use the satellite night lights data to create average luminosity for each one minute by one minute cell between 1992 and 2010. I construct a sanctions index that varies based on the international response to North Korea's nuclear pursuit. I find that sanctions increase the urban-rural luminosity gap by 1.07%. Consistent with urban elite capture, Pyongyang, the center of power is best shielded from sanctions followed by province capitals. The hinterlands respond: luminosity near the Chinese border increases with sanctions. Sanctions that fail to change the leader's behavior increase inequality at a cost to the already marginalized hinterlands.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea