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  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) was requested by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson and Ambassador Jack Chow, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Health Affairs. It highlights the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the potential implications of the disease for the United States under several scenarios; this paper does not attempt to provide a scientific assessment of the epidemiology of SARS. Even though SARS has infected and killed far fewer people than other common infectious diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, it has had a disproportionately large economic and political impact because it spread in areas with broad international commercial links and received intense media attention as a mysterious new illness that seemed able to go anywhere and hit anyone.
  • Topic: International Relations, Human Welfare, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Sea basing is a critical capability for the United States in a world where flexible, quick-response military action will be required in areas far from fixed bases available or suitable for American military use. The seabase replaces or augments the fixed, in-theater airports and seaports, on which past military operations have focused and depended, with a maneuverability facility at sea - a mobile base of operations, command center, logistics node and transportation hub. A commander can place a seabase where and when he chooses to exploit enemy weaknesses and employ the element of surprise, confusing enemy defensive preparations. A seabase can be a center for reconstitution and redeployment of forces in succeeding stages of complex operations.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Development, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: U.S. national security leaders face a complex, dynamic set of demands in protecting the interests of the United States and its allies. Three key trends shape the nature and capability of the military forces required to meet these demands: 1. The limited ability to predict when, where, and under what conditions we will need to commit U.S. military forces, particularly for smaller-scale contingencies; 2. The need for forces that enjoy dominant superiority over potential adversaries, not simply an incremental advantage over an aggregate set of threats; and 3. The rapid development and global availability of information technology (IT). Taken together, these trends underscore the need for enhanced joint capabilities.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Development, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: John G. Ikenberry
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: American global power – military, economic, technological, cultural, and political – is one of the great realities of our age. Never before has one country been so powerful and unrivaled. The United States began the 1990s as the world's only superpower and its advantages continued to grow through the decade. After the Cold War, the United States reduced its military spending at a slower rate than other countries and its economy grew at a faster pace. The globalization of the world economy has reinforced American economic and political dominance. No ideological challengers are in site. More recently, in response to terrorist attacks, the United States has embarked on a massive military buildup. In the recent National Security Strategy, the Bush administration has articulated an ambitious and provocative global military role for the United States in confronting new-age threats. Overall, American power advantages are multidimensional, unprecedented, and unlikely to disappear any time soon. The world has taken notice of these developments. Indeed, the post-Cold War rise of American power -- what might be called the rise of American "unipolarity" -- has unsettled world politics. Governments everywhere are worried about the uncertainties and insecurities that appear to flow from such extreme and unprecedented disparities of power. The shifting global security environment – triggered by the terrorist attacks of September 11th –also has conspired to upset old relationships and expectations. The American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have put American power on display and raised far-reaching questions about the use of force, alliances, weapons of mass destruction, sovereignty and interventionism. The world is in the midst of a great geopolitical adjustment process. Governments are trying to figure out how an American-centered unipolar order will operate. How will the United States use its power? Will a unipolar world be built around rules and institutions or the unilateral exercise of American power? This global worry about how a unipolar world will operate – in which the most basic questions about the character of world politics are at stake, namely, who benefits and who commands – is the not-so-hidden subtext of all the recent controversies in America's relations with the rest of the world. The question posed in this report is: how are the major countries around the world responding to American global preeminence? Overall, strategies and policies are mostly still in flux around the world. Responses up to now have been mostly ad hoc. Governments are learning, adapting, negotiating, and reacting – thus it is not possible to identify fixed "strategies of response." This report seeks to help us understand these evolving responses in two ways: first, it will provide conceptual tools to identify and track strategic responses by major states to American preeminence, and second, it will offer some preliminary characterizations of the patterns of response, particularly by Western Europe, Russia, and China. This report might be seen as a sort of "field guide" to global reactions rather than a definitive theoretical and empirical statement on the subject. I begin by offering a summary of the findings. After this, I look at the rise of American unipolar power and the variety of ways that American power is "experienced" around the world. In the next section, I survey the deeper sources and multifaceted character of American unipolar power. Next I explore the limits of the basic strategies of response to concentrated power – balancing, bandwagoning and binding. In the next section, I explore some of the emerging strategies that are appearing among the major countries. Finally, in the conclusion I return to the issue of unipolar power and rule-based order.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions (Antibribery Convention) of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is one of the most important instruments through which the U.S. government fights transnational corruption. The Convention obligates the Parties to criminalize bribery of foreign public officials in the conduct of international business. It is aimed at proscribing offers, promises or payments of bribes by companies based in the OECD signatory countries that engage in transactions in other countries.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: David C. Smith
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper examines the characteristics of loans to Japanese borrowers using a relatively unexplored, contract-specific data set. I find that Japanese banks charge less on loans to Japanese borrowers than do foreign banks, holding constant many of the risk characteristics of the borrower. Moreover, Japanese banks vary pricing less across these risks than do foreign banks, suggesting that Japanese banks tend not to distinguish good risks from bad. Taken together, the results suggest that problems at Japanese banks stem from the behavior of the banks themselves, not simply from poor economic conditions. I also document a significant shortening in the maturity structure of Japanese loans in the late 1990s.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel
  • Author: Francis E. Warnock, Hali J. Edison
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We analyze a unique data set and uncover a remarkable result that casts a new light on the home bias phenomenon. The data are comprehensive, security-level holdings of emerging market equities by U.S. investors. We document, as expected, that at a point in time U.S. portfolios are tilted towards firms that are large, have fewer restrictions on foreign ownership, or are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange. The size of the cross-listing effect is striking. In contrast to the well-documented underweighting of foreign stocks, emerging market equities that are cross-listed on a U.S. exchange are incorporated into U.S. portfolios at full international CAPM weights. Our results suggest that information asymmetries play an important role in equity home bias and that the benefits of international risk sharing are limited to select firms.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Francis E. Warnock, Hali J. Edison
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We analyze capital flows to emerging markets in a framework that incorporates two quantitative measures of financial integration, the intensity of capital controls and the extent of cross-border listings, while controlling for traditional global (push) and country-specific (pull) factors. Two important results emerge. First, the cross-listing of an emerging market firm on a U.S. exchange is an important but short-lived capital flows event, suggesting that the cross-listed stock is in effect a new security that U.S. investors quickly bring into their portfolios. Second, the effect of financial liberalization on capital flows is more nuanced than is suggested by event studies: A reduction in capital controls results in increased inflows only when the controls were binding. Among the standard push and pull factors, global factors are important—slack U.S. economic activity is associated with increased flows to emerging markets—and U.S. investors appear to chase expected, but not past, returns.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Special operations are operations conducted in hostile, denied, or politically sensitive environments to acheive military, diplomatic, informational, and/or economic objectives employing military capabilities for which there is no broad conventional force requirement. These operations often require covert, clandestine, or discreet capabilities. Special operations are applicable across the range of military operations. They can be conducted independently or in conjunction with operations of conventional forces or other government agencies and may include operations by, with, or through indigenous or surrogate forces.Special operations differ from conventional military actions in the following ways: Greater degree of physical and political risk Unique operational techniques, mode of employment, and independence from friendly support Detailed operational intelligence and indigenous assets.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In the terms of reference, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics directed the task force “to conduct a comprehensive study of the ends and means of precision compellence, or the nuanced use of force, in concert with coalition partners, to achieve political, economic and moral change in countries affecting US interests.” Real-world events have since underscored the need for such a study; indeed, the U.S. military applied key elements of a measured, nuanced approach in both the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns. We are pleased to note this evolution in operations and a parallel evolution in the thinking of the combatant commands and Services. Because of this evolution, it is no longer as necessary as it once was to sell the fundamental objectives of what we term here the discriminate use of force (DUF).
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Responsibility Sharing Report presents the Department of Defense's annual assessment of the relative contributions toward the common defense and mutual security by our NATO allies, our Pacific allies (Australia, Japan and the Republic of Korea), and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. The cornerstone of effective alliance relationships is the fair and equitable sharing of the full range of mutual security responsibilities, and the appropriate balancing of costs and benefits.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Japan, Australia/Pacific, Korea
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program was conceived as an international acquisition program in order to attract financial investment and technological innovation from partner countries, as well as to partner early with governments whose military Services were likely users of this state-of-the-art coalition forces platform.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This is the second 21st century Defense Science Board report on military training. The report itself has a training goal: instruct and convince the acquisition and personnel communities to recognize instinctively that (1) military proficiency is as dependent on the warriors who operate weapon systems as it is on the weapon system technology, and (2) a superb way to waste personnel or system acquisition money is to ignore training, or to tacitly allow training to pay the bills for acquisition or personnel system flaws in those more measurable arenas.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Development, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Since 1999, the Department of Defense has used its real property inventory as the basis for the annual publication of the Base Structure Report. This report contains a comprehensive listing of installations and sites used by the Department, summarizes the current facilities inventory, and provides other basic information concerning the locations.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jaime Marquez, Shing-Yi B. Wang
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We study whether aggregation residuals in U.S. private investment in information technology (IT) exhibit a predictable pattern that is consistent with Hicks' composite-good theorem and that may be used for forecasting. To determine whether one can extract such a pattern, we apply the general-to-specific strategy developed by Krolzig and Hendry (2001). This strategy combines ordinary least squares with a computer-automated algorithm that selects a specification based on coefficients' statistical significance, residual properties, and parameter constancy. Then, we derive the testable implications from Hicks' theorem and evaluate them with econometric formulations; we find qualified support for these implications. Having obtained these formulations, we evaluate their ex-post predictive accuracy and compare it to that of an autoregressive model. The key finding is that ignoring movement in relative prices results in a loss of information for predicting aggregation residuals.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: David Johnson
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Middle East
  • Author: Carolyn Evans, James Harrigan
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Time is money, and distance matters. We model the interaction of these truisms, and show the implications for global specialization and trade: products where timely delivery is important will be produced near the source of final demand, where wages will be higher as a result. In the model, timely delivery is important because it allows retailers to respond to fluctuating final demand without holding costly inventories, and timely delivery is only possible from nearby locations. Using a unique dataset that allows us to measure the retail demand for timely delivery, we show that the sources of US apparel imports have shifted in the way predicted by the model, with products where timeliness matters increasingly imported from nearby countries.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jorge D. Selaive, Vicente Tuesta
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: An unresolved issue in international macroeconomics is the apparent lack of risk-sharing across countries, which contradicts the prediction of models based on the assumption of complete markets. We assess the importance of financial frictions in this issue by constructing an incomplete market model with stationary net foreign assets (NFA) and imperfect pass-through (IPT). In this paper, there is a cost of bond holdings that allows us to incorporate the dynamics of NFA into the risk-sharing condition. On theoretical grounds, our results suggest that the dynamics of NFA may account for the lack of risk-sharing across countries. In addition, the IPT mechanism, by closing the current account channel, does not help to explain this feature of the data. On empirical grounds, we test the risk-sharing condition derived in the paper, and we find that growth factors of consumption and real exchange rates behave in a manner that may be consistent with a significant role for the net foreign asset position.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jaime Marquez, Jane Ihrig
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity, (2) structural changes in labor markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU), and (3) improved credibility of monetary policy. Here we ask whether comparable factors were at work in foreign industrial countries. To address this question, we empirically characterize the relationship between inflation, the unemployment rate, and structural factors using an extended Phillips curve model with quarterly data through 1994. By undertaking counterfactual simulations from 1995 to 2001, we quantify the separate contributions of unemployment-rate movements, labor-market reforms (that affected the NAIRU), and productivity developments on inflation. In line with previous work on the United States, we find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation in the United States. For foreign countries, persistent labor-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The Undersecretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics) and the Secretary of the Air Force cosponsored the Joint Defense Science Board (DSB)/Air Force Science Advisory Board (AFSAB) Task Force on the Acquisition of National Security Space Programs and directed the task force to Recommend improvements to the acquisition of space programs from initiation to deployment; Assess the nation's dependency on space; Characterize problems by looking at underlying causes and systemic issues such as cost growth and schedule delays that impact all space programs; and Analyze the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS), Future Imaging Architecture (FIA), and Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV).
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States