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2751. Kashmir: The View From New Delhi

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For half a century Kashmir has been the major issue of contention between India and Pakistan. In India's view, the conflict in the state of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a major internal security threat and is driven by Pakistani interference. No solution is possible, according to the Indian leadership, until Pakistan ceases its support for militants there.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Kashmir, and New Delhi

2752. Kashmir: Learning from the Past

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While its roots predate Indian and Pakistani independence, the Kashmir conflict's current directions can best be understood in the light of the nationalism and state building that followed the end of British colonial rule. Domestic factors, including the imperatives of regime legitimacy and consolidation, remain important influences in both countries.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

2753. Iraq's Constitutional Challenge

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As attacks against the occupying forces and suicide bombs against civilian targets intensify, the need for a new political formula that will increase the powers, legitimacy and representative quality of Iraqi governing institutions is becoming more urgent than ever. The response to date, reflected in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511, has been to tie the transfer of the exercise of sovereignty to the drafting of an Iraqi constitution, its adoption in a referendum and ensuing national elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations

2754. Building Bridges In Mostar

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Making another attempt to unite the divided city of Mostar has become, unexpectedly but appropriately, a very high international priority in Bosnia " Herzegovina (BiH) in 2003. By late summer, it had come to be ranked by High Representative Paddy Ashdown among his four major projects for structural reform. In each case, the High Representative appointed a foreign chairman to lead commissions composed of domestic representatives and charged with finding statebuilding solutions in the symbolically or substantively important realms of defence, intelligence, indirect taxation - and Mostar. All aim to unify divided and dysfunctional institutions. The first three commissions, which have already reported and whose draft legislation is proceeding through the various parliaments, have also sought to empower the state over the entities and their respective national establishments.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

2755. Nepal: Back to the Gun

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the collapse of the ceasefire and peace talks between government and Maoist insurgents, Nepal appears to be in for months more of bloody fighting. There are prospects for eventual resumption of negotiations since neither side can realistically expect a military victory, and there are indications of what a diplomatic compromise might look like. However, the international community needs to urge all sides toward compromise and press the government to restore democracy, bring the political parties back into the picture and control the army's tendency to commit serious abuses when conducting operations. Similarly, the Maoists should discontinue targeted assassinations, bombing and widespread extortion.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

2756. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany

2757. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

2758. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul

2759. Serbian Reform Stails Again

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The reformist zeal displayed by the Serbian government following the 12 March 2003 assassination of Premier Zoran Djindjic appears to have dissipated. A number of important and positive steps were taken while the shock of that political murder was still fresh. Increasingly, however, their impact is being counterbalanced by actions that bring into question the government's ability to press decisive political and economic reforms home so as to achieve the goal of integration with wider European institutions.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

2760. Indonesia: Managing Decentralisation and Conflict in South Sulawesi

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What has been the impact of Indonesia's radical decentralisation program, launched on 1 January 2001, on conflict prevention and management? This case study of the district of Luwu in South Sulawesi finds results that have thus far been positive. But it remains an open question whether these results are sustainable – and whether Luwu's success is transferable to other parts of the country.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Indonesia

2761. Central Asia: Islam and the State

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To avoid future instability, Central Asian states need to re-examine their policies towards Islam and step back from reliance on repression. Seventy years of Soviet rule in Central Asia did not crush Islam but it had a profound effect in secularising society and political elites. Nevertheless, after independence there was a surge of interest in Islam, including the emergence of political Islamist groups seeking to challenge the secular nature of these new states. The heavy-handed repression of early manifestations of political Islam led to confrontation, violence, and the appearance of extremist and terrorist groups.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Central Asia

2762. Algeria: Unrest and Impasse in Kabylia

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late April 2001, lethal provocations by elements of Algeria's National Gendarmerie triggered protracted and deadly rioting in Kabylia. That the unrest from Kabylia's Black Spring continues to this day reflects the political system's nation-wide failure to adopt reforms that address its deficit of democratic representation. Neither the regime, nor the Kabyle political parties nor the so-called "Coordinations" that lead the protest movement in the region has to date proposed a serious formula for ending the impasse. The recent invitation by the new head of the government, Ahmed Ouyahia, to the protest movement to engage in dialogue over its platform is a welcome, if belated, development. But more will be needed to enable the Algerian polity to resolve what is much more a national problem than the local or ethnic disturbance it is often mistakenly portrayed as.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, and North Africa

2763. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries

2764. Bosnia's Brcko: Getting In, Getting On and Getting Out

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time to consider the future of Brcko District. In particular, it is time to chart an exit strategy for the supervisory regime that will serve both to preserve and extend its and the people of Brcko's accomplishments.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

2765. Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the last decade, Taiwan has moved slowly but surely away from its commitment to the idea of 'one China', the proposition, long agreed on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, that Taiwan and the mainland are parts of one country. This has led to steadily mounting tension between Taiwan and China, for both of whom the issue goes to the heart of their sense of identity. While the prospect of an outbreak of war across the Strait remains distant, action is needed by all relevant parties to contain and reverse the situation.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

2766. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

2767. Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar is one of the ethnically most diverse countries in the world and throughout its existence as an independent state has experienced a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups seeking autonomy. While the world's attention for the past decade has focused on the struggle between the military government and the political opposition over national power, these underlying conflicts perhaps represent a more fundamental and intractable obstacle to peace, development and democracy.
Topic:
Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Central Asia

2768. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

2769. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

2770. Red Alert In Jordan: Recurrent Unrest In Maan

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In successive incidents over eight days in November 2002, the city of Maan in the south of Jordan was the scene of intense armed clashes between security forces and elements of the Maani population. What began as a routine police operation rapidly escalated into incidents in which thousands of police, soldiers, and special forces fought militants in and around the town before subduing them. The clashes left six dead, many more wounded, over 150 arrested for questioning or prosecution, and property destroyed. As of early February 2003, over 45 people remained in custody and several others were still being sought.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia and Jordan

2771. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia

2772. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

2773. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

2774. The Politics of Center-Periphery Relations in Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin and Helena Malikyar
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The relationship of the central government of Afghanistan to the other units of government is in many ways a proxy for the relationship of state to society. It would not be so if the state were more institutionalized and in control of the territory and population of the country. But the current situation, where the direct administrative control of the government is largely limited to the capital city and environs, and in which the government relies on international support (“foreign” support to its opponents) to exercise that control, has precedents in other eras of Afghan history.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2775. Next Move in Steel: Revocation or Retaliation?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In May 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled that US steel safeguards imposed in March 2002 are illegal. The WTO Appellate Body is all but certain to confirm the panel's judgment, probably by December 2003. Then the Bush administration will face an important choice. It can keep the safeguards in place, pleasing steel producers and important constituencies in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. However, doing so would further anger steel users, who have probably lost more business and jobs as a direct consequence of the safeguards than steel producers have gained. Maintaining the safeguards would also send a signal to the world's trading nations that the United States is not prepared to endure the political cost of eliminating steel protection. Furthermore, the administration would run the risk that, in the middle of a presidential election season, foreign countries will exercise their rights under the WTO to retaliate.
Topic:
Government and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia

2776. Rules Against Earnings Stripping: Wrong Answer to Corporate Inversions

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Ariel Assa
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The tax-driven expatriation of US corporations is a troubling phenomenon. In a “corporate inversion,” a new foreign corporation, typically located in a low-tax or no-tax country, replaces the existing US parent corporation of a multinational enterprise (MNE). The US corporation then becomes a subsidiary of the new foreign parent. Since the US tax treatment of an MNE operating in the United States is significantly less favorable when the top-tier parent corporation is a domestic rather than a foreign corporation, the inversion transaction averts a substantial amount of US tax. Inversions have attracted adverse attention from tax specialists, media, the US Treasury Department, and Congress. In the wake of September 11, it seemed downright unpatriotic for US firms to invert as a way of skimping on their tax payments.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2777. Steel Policy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:
Gary C. Hufbauer and Ben Goodrich
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
While the US steel industry has been in distress for decades, the “steel crisis” of 1999-2001 was particularly acute. More than 30 steel producing and steel processing firms fell into bankruptcy between 1997 and 2001, and most of the failures occurred after President Bush took office. During his presidential campaign, Bush promised steelworkers that he would not neglect them. As the crisis worsened, the steel industry and the United Steel Workers of America (USWA) pressed the Bush administration to make good on its campaign promise.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and America

2778. Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US Manufacturing Plants

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing activity within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. It introduces a new measure of industry exposure to international trade, motivated by the Heckscher-Ohlin model, which focuses on where imports originate rather than their overall level. Results demonstrate that plant survival as well as output and employment growth are negatively associated with the share of industry imports sourced from the world's lowest-wage countries. Within industries, activity is reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Plants are also more likely to alter their product mix (i.e. switch industries) in response to trade with low-wage countries. Plants altering their product mix switch to industries that are more capital-and skill-intensive.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2779. Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Andrew B. Bernard, and Peter K. Schott
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous- firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2780. Improving The Sovereign Debt Restructuring Process

Author:
Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The recent debate on reforming the international financial system has focused on the need to improve the sovereign debt restructuring process, and in particular on steps that could limit the risk that litigation could disrupt or delay a sovereign debt restructuring. This debate increasingly has focused on the debt restructuring process in those cases where debt reduction is needed to produce a sustainable debt profile. Less attention has been given to those cases where a sovereign lacks the reserves needed to cover its near-term obligations and, absent international support, has a clear need for debt rescheduling to push out near-term maturities.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

2781. Executive Leadership and the Role of “Veto Players” in the United States and Germany

Author:
Ludger Helms
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In recent comparative works on the constitutional structures of contemporary liberal democracies, the United States and Germany have been grouped together as examples of democratic systems with an exceptionally high degree of “institutional pluralism”. In other typologies both countries have even been classified as “semisovereign democracies”. Whereas such classifications are of some use, especially in the field of public policy research, they fail to pay reasonable attention to the fundamental difference between parliamentary and presidential government that dominated the older literature on comparative political systems. As the comparative assessments offered in this paper suggest, the difference between parliamentary government and presidential government does not only constitute very different conditions of executive leadership in the core executive territory and at the level of executive-legislative relations, but has also a strong impact on the role and performance of the various “veto players” that characterize the political systems of the United States and Germany, and which are at the center of this paper.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

2782. European Corporate Governance Reform and the German Party Paradox

Author:
Martin Höpner
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper addresses the current discussion on links between party politics and production regimes. Why do German Social Democrats opt for more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU although, in terms of the distributional outcomes of such reforms, one would expect the situation to be reversed? I divide my analysis into three stages. First, I use the European Parliament's crucial vote on the European takeover directive in July 2001 as a test case to show that the left-right dimension does indeed matter in corporate governance reform, beside cross-class and cross-party nation-based interests. In a second step, by analyzing the party positions in the main German corporate governance reforms in the 1990s, I show that the SPD and the CDU behave “paradoxically” in the sense that the SPD favored more corporate governance liberalization than the CDU, which protected the institutions of “Rhenish,” “organized” capitalism. This constellation occurred in the discussions on company disclosure, management accountability, the power of banks, network dissolution, and takeover regulation. Third, I offer two explanations for this paradoxical party behavior. The first explanation concerns the historical conversion of ideas. I show that trade unions and Social Democrats favored a high degree of capital organization in the Weimar Republic, but this ideological position was driven in new directions at two watersheds: one in the late 1940s, the other in the late 1950s. My second explanation lies in the importance of conflicts over managerial control, in which both employees and minority shareholders oppose managers, and in which increased shareholder power strengthens the position of works councils.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2783. Portugese Ministers, 1851-1999: Social Background and Paths to Power

Author:
Pedro Tavares de Almeida and António Costa Pinto
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of regime changes in the composition and patterns of recruitment of the Portuguese ministerial elite throughout the last 150 years. The 'out-of-type', violent nature of most regime transformations accounts for the purges in and the extensive replacements of the political personnel, namely of the uppermost officeholders. In the case of Cabinet members, such discontinuities did not imply, however, radical changes in their social profile. Although there were some significant variations, a series of salient characteristics have persisted over time. The typical Portuguese minister is a male in his midforties, of middle-class origin and predominantly urban-born, highly educated and with a state servant background. The two main occupational contingents have been university professors - except for the First Republic (1910-26) - and the military, the latter having only recently been eclipsed with the consolidation of contemporary democracy. As regards career pathways, the most striking feature is the secular trend for the declining role of parliamentary experience, which the democratic regime did not clearly reverse. In this period, a technocratic background rather than political experience has been indeed the privileged credential for a significant proportion of ministers.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2784. Ministerial Elites in Greece, 1843-2001: A Synthesis of Old Sources and New Data

Author:
Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos and Dimitris Bourikos
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The study of Greek political elites used to be concentrated on parliamentary deputies. Ministerial elites were rarely studied. In this paper, we take a long-term view of the Greek ministerial elites, studying their socio-political profile from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. We find that this profile does not change so much with regime change, but instead follows political developments at certain time points within specific regime periods. At these points, new political leaders were ushered into power. Examples were Eleftherios Venizelos in 1911 and Andreas Papandreou in 1981. Changes in personnel were not accompanied by changes in geographical origin or professional outlook, which took much longer to effect. In the nineteenth century mainly landowners and state officials dominated cabinets. After the beginning of the twentieth century, however, liberal professions, particularly lawyers, were overrepresented among ministers. This pattern continued throughout the twentieth century. Both the predominance of lawyers and the changes in the profile of ministers over time are attributed to the type of state built in modern Greece, a clientelist, overcentralized and legalistic state which only recently has started its transformation, requiring a different, more modern type of politician.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

2785. The Defense Monitor: Little Room in Politics for the Facts of the Matter

Author:
Philip E. Coyle, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Theresa Hitchens, Victoria Garcia, Colin Robinson, Krista Nelson, and Jeffrey Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Few things are more routinely abused than facts when people in government — any party, any branch — set out to make a decision. I've been reminded of this truth watching the current administration parry revelations that it manipulated “facts” about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war against Iraq that Congress authorized a year ago this past week. But I'd learned it the hard way much earlier. During a 31-year career as an evaluator for the General Accounting Office and a staffer for four different U.S. senators from both parties, I spent a lot of time trying to use facts to influence decisions made by the U.S. government. The facts took a beating all too often.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

2786. International Law for an Uncertain Environment

Author:
Barbara Koremenos
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
For the past twenty years, the theoretical literature on international cooperation has focused on overarching questions about whether cooperation is possible and how important it is. The seminal contributions of the 1980s increased our theoretical understanding of the possibility of cooperation. Yet we know empirically that cooperation is pervasive. Hundreds of multilateral agreements are signed each year. If we count bilateral agreements as well, the number jumps to thousands. This is not to say that cooperation is easy. In fact, given the challenges of successful cooperation, it is time for the theoretical literature to focus not on whether cooperation can occur at all, but on more focused questions regarding how the actual institutions of cooperation work and through what means they have their impact on state behavior.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, International Cooperation, and International Law

2787. The Preventive Use of Force: A Cosmopolitan Institutional Proposal

Author:
Allen Buchanan and Robert Keohane
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Since 9/11/2001 fears of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction have fueled a vigorous world-wide debate about the use of preventive force. “Preventive force” may be defined as the initiation of military action in anticipation of harmful actions that are neither presently occurring nor imminent.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Government, and Politics

2788. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers

Author:
Gerardo Munck
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

2789. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:
Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

2790. Authentication Report

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
How does a machine know you are who you say you are and what you are allowed to do? A car 'knows' you are authorized to drive it when you insert a metal key. An automatic teller knows who you are and how much is in your account when you insert a magnetic card and enter a Personal Identification Number. The machine isn't actually confirming your identity; it is accepting a token issued to you by someone else, who may have taken steps to confirm at the time of issuance that you are who you say you are.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology

2791. The Spring 2002 Term of the Mexican Congress

Author:
Jeffrey A. Weldon
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The spring session of the second year of the 58th Legislature in Mexico, in comparison with most recent years, was more productive than average. Although there were a few major negative incidents, the strained relationship between the executive and legislative branches did not lead to complete paralysis on executive legislation.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

2792. Cyber Attacks: Missing in Action

Author:
James A. Lewis
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

2793. Politics and Passions: the Stakes of Democracy

Author:
Chantal Mouffe
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
Abstract:
For some time I have been concerned with what I see as our growing inability to envisage in political terms the problems facing our societies: that is, to see them as problems the solutions to which entail not just technical but political decisions. These decisions would be made between real alternatives, the existence of which implied the presence of conflicting but legitimate projects of how to organize our common life. We appear to be witnessing not the end of history but the end of politics. Is this not the message of recent trends in political theory and sociology, as well as of the practices of mainstream political parties? They all claim that the adversarial model of politics has become obsolete and that we have entered a new phase of reflexive modernity, one in which an inclusive consensus can be built around a 'radical centre'. All those who disagree with this consensus are dismissed as archaic or condemned as evil. Morality has been promoted to the position of a master narrative; as such, it replaces discredited political and social discourses as a framework for collective action. Morality is rapidly becoming the only legitimate vocabulary: we are now urged to think not in terms of right and left, but of right and wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2794. Bicameralismo en América Latina

Author:
Jorge Schiavon
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
More than half of the countries in Latin America have bicameral legislatures, and the vast majority of the larger countries in the region have dual legislative bodies. This paper explores whether bicameralism is an important institutional variable in the functioning of Latin American systems. It develops a typology of the different types of bycameralism in the region based on several specific characteristics that differentiate between them, and discusses the relevance of the institutional configuration of the system and the party configuration of the chambers for bicameralism. Then, it constructs a veto gates and players model in order to analyze the causal mechanism through which bicameralism impacts Latin America systems. Finally, it presents two examples (one with variation in time, the other with variation in space) to support the argument that bicameralism matters depending on its type, the institutional configuration, and party composition of the system.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Latin America

2795. Church and State: Leaders and Legitimacy, A Theoretical Review

Author:
Blaire M. Harms
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper represents an introductory and partial review of the literature on elite politics and their use of myths and symbols for legitimacy. My full project will explain the connection (or relationship) between religious elites and political elites, the use of religious myths, symbols or ritual to generate nationalism, and political legitimacy. This project requires that I bring together a number of different fields that examine elites and nationalism, as well as the literature on myths and symbols. This includes work in international relations, comparative politics, culture/ethnicity, and religion. The starting point of most of the literature that looks at elite politics and nationalism (whether this is stated or not) is that politics becomes problematic when political institutions are weak. I will provide an overview of this broad literature to start with; then I will give a condensed look at some other positions that examine why competitive elite politics may generate nationalism; where nationalist symbology comes from; and the different roles religious elites may play in nationalist conflict; and finish with a description of how I see the relationship between religion, politics, myths and nationalism. You will see that my position is unique, yet combines elements from the other fields of inquiry.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States

2796. Clausewitz and the Morality of War

Author:
Suzanne C. Nielsen
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The ideas of Carl von Clausewitz have been the subject of endless controversy since the posthumous publication of On War in 1832. Did Clausewitz produce a time bound analysis of the wars of his age, or a timeless classic? Was he an objective analyst of war's complexities, or an advocate of wars of annihilation? This paper explores Clausewitz's perspective on the moral issues that war inevitably raises. This exploration will address two main questions. First, what views does Clausewitz express on the role for ethical considerations in war? Second, did Clausewitz think that the statesman's actions in international politics could or should take into account moral considerations? This paper argues that Clausewitz prioritizes the interests of the state over moral considerations. However, his approach leaves open the possibility that state interests can vary over time in ways that expand statesmen's opportunities for moral action.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Government

2797. A Model of Electoral Competition with Two-Year Terms

Author:
John C. Hansen and John M. Barron
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper will shed some light on the legislative voting literature by using a standard median voter model, however, the legislator's term is split into two distinct voting years. This allows us to analyze in more detail the voting decisions made by Congressmen. We estimate a voting record based on constituency variables and calculate the residual. We find that a higher first-year residual on the part of a congressman causes a lower probability of being reelected. In addition, we find that the first-year residual plays the key role in this lower reelection probability. The second-year residual lacks any consistent significance with regards to the reelection probability. In this paper, we also analyze two different effects that have been predominant in the literature: the sorting effect and the tenure effect. Using our comprehensive data set, from 1983-1996, we find that both effects do exist. Moreover, older congressmen (those closer to retirement) had lower residuals. For the years 1983 to 1992, the two effects counteracted each other and caused no net impact on the first-year residual. For the years 1993-1996, the sorting effect dominated the tenure effect and showed that members with higher tenures had lower first-year residuals.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States

2798. Strategic Culture and the English School: Conceptualising Strategic Adjustment in the Nordic Region

Author:
Henrikki Heikka
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Nordic region seems to be in the midst of a thorough transformation-process, involving all of the countries in the region as well as the key institutional players. The aim of this paper is to define some of the key concepts needed for understanding and explaining this process. In particular, the paper focuses on sketching a method for differentiating between structural and cultural sources of strategic adjustment. The concept of structure connects the discussion to structural realism, while the concept of culture is linked to the theoretical debates within IR about strategic culture and international society. The method outlined in the paper borrows from Max Weber's use of ideal types and scientific realists' use of iconic modeling. The paper argues for ontological clarity in dealing with causal mechanisms (at the level of the real) that are used to explain grand strategies (at the level of the actual) and their empirical referents such a military doctrine or alliance choices. Three ideal types of strategic culture – realist, liberal, and revolutionary – are suggested as a hermeneutical tool for evaluating the potential effects of causal powers of strategic cultures within strategic thinking.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, International Political Economy, Political Economy, and Politics

2799. 17 octobre 1961 - 17 octobre 2001: une commémoration ambiguë

Author:
Brigitte Jelen
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:
Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:
A few months ago, the massacre of Algerian civilians by the French police on October 17, 1961 was finally officially recognized, as the new socialist mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë, placed a commemorative plaque on the Pont Saint-Michel. In his declaration to the press, Delanoë was careful to focus on the "Parisian" character of this ceremony, although the 1961 massacre was committed by the French national police. Perhaps Delanoë's noble and courageous gesture hides an ambiguity, an injustice to the victims? In order to understand the symbolic importance of this plaque in the construction of France's official memory of the Algerian war, this essay analyzes how the French government since 1962 has attempted to "forget" the conflict in the name of "national unity," in particular through the use of amnesty laws. In a discussion on forgiveness inspired by J. Derrida, the possibility of a French national memory of the Algerian war (and of the October 17, 1961 event) that would include the voices of the victims is considered.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Paris and France

2800. Policy Activism In A Globalized Economy: France's 35-hour Workweek

Author:
Gunnar Trumbull
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:
Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:
Globalization is commonly thought to impede policy activism. Yet France's 35-hour workweek initiative demonstrates that globalization can, in certain circumstances, create incentives for greater policy activism. This is because economic actors experience globalization differently. The French government, facing fiscal and monetary constraints, was seeking alternative means for promoting employment. French employers, facing new foreign competition, increasingly valued workforce flexibility. And French labor unions, facing declining membership, were anxious to establish a bridgehead in new sectors of the economy. These diverse pressures of globalization, felt differently by different economic actors, created the context in which an activist labor policy could be negotiated.
Topic:
Economics and Government