Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 5 Years

16201. Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa

Author:: Nicolas Florquin, Elodie Hainard, and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Even though states may not intentionally supply materiel to armed groups, a lack of stringent risk assessments on weapons and ammunition exports destined for areas prone to diversion can hamper efforts to curtail the broader illicit arms trade. The 2020 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s annual Trade Update, Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa, delves into cases of authorized small arms ammunition transfers to Africa through exploring the potential of beyond-the-norm data sources. Relying on peacekeeping operations, national customs, and civil society research, the case studies highlight ammunition imports from opaque exporters to countries affected by armed conflict, states subject to arms embargoes, and other areas on the continent equally prone to seeing arms and ammunition diverted from the licit to illicit markets. Ammunition accounted for 42 per cent of all authorized African small arms imports in 2017. Since countries with low transparency records do export ammunition to government forces in conflict-affected regions and such regions are prone to diversion, there is a gap in risk identification. Therefore, findings from the case studies emphasize the importance of exporters improving their reporting practices and carrying out stringent risk assessments. In addition, the leveraging of multiple data sources can enhance the monitoring of the authorized ammunition trade and help curb unauthorized activities.
Topic:: Civil Society, Crime, Markets, Peacekeeping, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Africa

16202. Science, research, and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540: the need of a “Wiesbaden process” for Academia

Author:: Ignacio Cartagena Núñez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The necessary link between export controls/academia/technology transfers has lagged behind in policy agendas: while weapons and dual-use goods are being channeled through very detailed regulations and export control regimes, knowledge transfers within scientific collaborations are subject to disperse and heterogeneous rules. The normative vacuum concerning intangible technology transfers in academia is a clear proliferating risk. History proves that many big proliferation networks have started precisely within peaceful scientific research projects. In this context, dialogue with universities and research centers–on the basis of an increasing awareness of the sensitive nature of research and its proliferating risks- could pave the way for states’ further attention on the matter. This could be achieved through a structured dialogue between public actors –in particular export control authorities- and researchers. In order to preserve scientific freedom, a better understanding of each other’s needs, requirements and concerns should be in the basis of any regulation. This article sustains a three-fold idea: first, basic export controls concepts might not be always suitable for science and research, thus needing a constant adaptation exercise where the active role of researchers and scientists becomes irreplaceable; second: UNSCR 1540 resolution offers a good framework in order to steer cooperation between national regulatory authorities, export control regimes and academia; third, the suggested interaction could take a form similar to the “Wiesbaden process” which has already proven to be a successful platform for interaction between governments and industry representatives. The comprehensive review of UNSCR 1540, expected to take place in 2021, will contribute to shape the nonproliferation agenda for the years to come. It seems a good opportunity for setting up the grounds for this suggested dialogue between public authorities and scientists. This new process could be a tangible achievement of the Comprehensive Review.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Non State Actors, Nonproliferation, and Exports
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16203. La génesis ibérica del moderno poder naval (The Iberian Genesis of Modern Sea Power)

Author:: Manuel Vila González
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En las postrimerías del siglo XV surgió de la mano de los dos pueblos ibéricos atlánticos una revolucionaria aproximación al uso en beneficio propio del mar, caracterizada por tener que enfrentarse al reto de la navegación oceánica y de la exploración de nuevas tierras, algo jamás siquiera concebido con anterioridad. Como ya había ocurrido en otras etapas históricas con otros protagonistas, la principal motivación para lanzarse al mar fue económica. Sin embargo, la escala geográfica del empeño en esta ocasión dio lugar a una nueva era, caracterizada tanto por un acelerado desarrollo científico como por una globalización del comercio, de la política, de la tecnología y de la cultura (el lenguaje, la educación y el cristianismo). Portugal conquistó los océanos con el ánimo de establecer una red de enclaves comerciales, creando el molde de lo que desde entonces se ha considerado el lógico proceder de las potencias marítimas, empeñadas en moverse con libertad por los mares que unen las colonias con la metrópoli. De esa guisa, lo que desde hace apenas poco más de un siglo se denomina poder naval no era sino la parte del poder marítimo que se encargaba de proteger el comercio propio de la ambición ajena. España, sin embargo, acometió una epopeya similar con una mentalidad más territorial (y más patrimonial), debido a la cual los mismos océanos pasaron a ser considerados parte integrante de las posesiones monárquicas como vínculo que unía las distintas partes del reino. Esa asunción engendró un concepto nuevo de poder naval, por el que en tiempo de paz complementaba al poder marítimo, que se convertía en tributario del primero en caso de conflicto bélico. Lo que los tratadistas clásicos anglosajones (Alfred T. Mahan y Julian S. Corbett, en particular) describieron como poder marítimo y naval al estudiar la historia basándose en fuentes documentales británicas no es más que la trasposición de los principios que rigieron la constitución del Portugal renacentista en una talasocracia de ámbito planetario. El caso español es mucho más complejo, pues no solo fue igualmente ignorado en los estudios histórico-estratégicos tardo-decimonónicos y posteriores (no solo anglosajones, lo que es aún más inexplicable), sino que se mantiene en la bruma de lo inexplorado al no haber tenido continuidad histórica reconocida, lo que ha contribuido a impedir una comprensión adecuada de la dimensión histórica del éxito (por su resiliencia, durabilidad, prosperidad…) del “imperio” de la Monarquía Hispánica.
Topic:: Navy, History, Maritime, and Seapower
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Portugal

16204. Entre políticos y criminales: corrupción política en Colombia 2013-2018 (Between Politicians and Criminals: Political Corruption in Colombia 2013-2018)

Author:: Pedro Piedrahita Bustamante
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La corrupción es un delito que genera afectaciones políticas, específicamente a la construcción del Estado y la democracia. Es decir, restringe las habilidades de las instituciones para lograr el objetivo de promover el bienestar general a través de la creación de poderes secretos que entorpecen la idea de la democracia como poder público que se realiza ante el público. Así, la corrupción política crea un poder secreto, controlado por funcionarios públicos y políticos profesionales que favorecen diversas redes criminales asociadas a otros delitos y afectan las instituciones y el principio de publicidad en la democracia. El objetivo de la investigación es analizar la corrupción política en Colombia entre 2013 y 2018 desde la perspectiva del Crimen Organizado Transnacional (COT). Para esto se considera que para abordar la corrupción política como delito transnacional es necesario superar el fenómeno de narcotización del delito y reconocer que la corrupción política es también un delito relevante, que funciona en red y que se asocia con otras dinámicas criminales para buscar beneficios económicos del Estado o afectarlo. El enfoque metodológico fue cualitativo y se utilizó el método fenomenológico-hermenéutico en el análisis de la información histórica recopilada desde el siglo XVI que sirvió de contexto para establecer la relación de la corrupción con otros delitos en el país y de los diferentes casos de corrupción analizados en el período de estudio. Se aclara que solo se tienen en cuenta aquellos casos que se ajustan al análisis de corrupción transnacional por los vínculos con otras redes. Se evidencia que entre 2013 y 2018 hubo casos de corrupción política con nexos criminales asociados al narcotráfico, el lavado de activos, la prostitución, entre otros. No obstante, varios de estos hechos no parecen tener la misma relevancia informativa que los típicos casos de soborno, financiación ilegal de campañas o carteles de contratación. Esto se entiende como una oportunidad para seguir profundizando en este tipo de investigaciones.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Crime, Politics, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Global Focus

16205. Inteligencia para la Seguridad Pública en las Entidades Federativas de México (Intelligence for Public Security in Mexican States)

Author:: Juan Carlos Montero Bagatella
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La seguridad pública en México continúa siendo uno de los problemas más importantes. La inseguridad, expresada en estadísticas sobre incidencia delictiva y encuestas sobre percepción de inseguridad, no se ha logrado reducir. Ante dicho escenario, el artículo expone la complejidad de la seguridad pública, reconociéndola como una materia que trasciende las atribuciones de distintas dependencias y órdenes de gobierno. La investigación se enfoca en el papel de la inteligencia estratégica en las entidades federativas, reconociéndola como instrumento para la toma de decisiones. Para ello, el trabajo comienza por exponer la complejidad de la seguridad pública de acuerdo con el marco legal; en segundo lugar, se expone la utilidad de la inteligencia y de la inteligencia estratégica para la seguridad pública; en tercer lugar, se expone la investigación realizada en las 32 entidades federativas para identificar sus capacidades para generar y compartir inteligencia para la seguridad pública. La investigación expone la falta de mecanismos para generar y compartir inteligencia al interior de las entidades federativas y entre órdenes de gobierno, así como una visión restringida de la inteligencia orientada hacia la función policial, excluyendo elementos como la prevención de la violencia y el delito o la reinserción social.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Police
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

16206. La captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico: el caso de los “cuello blanco del puerto” (The Capture of the Peruvian State by Drug Trafficking: the Case of «the White Collars of the Port»)

Author:: Laura Zúñiga Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Desde los años ochenta el Perú es una pieza clave en el escenario internacional del tráfico de drogas. Segundo productor de cocaína del mundo y uno de los países donde se cultiva el principal insumo, la hoja de coca, el puerto de El Callao, siendo uno de los principales puertos de América Latina por su volumen, se presume que es desde donde salen importantes cargas de esa droga. La interceptación de las comunicaciones en 2018 para investigar el crimen organizado violento que se desarrollaba en esa Provincia, desveló una red de jueces, fiscales, congresistas, empresarios, que colaboraban con los narcotraficantes favoreciéndoles con la impunidad. No es el primer intento de captura del Estado peruano por el narcotráfico. En la década de los noventa, el gobierno de Fujimori-Montesinos, utilizó el dinero del narcotráfico –entre otros- para sobornar a las más altas autoridades del país: jefes militares, Corte Suprema, Fiscal de la Nación, medios de comunicación, empresarios, todos afines al gobierno. Los “narcoindultos” del segundo gobierno de Alan García son otro síntoma de la gravedad de la colaboración de autoridades de las más altas esferas del Estado con los poderosos narcotraficantes. Se pone en evidencia la “doble moral” de la Política Criminal peruana contra el tráfico internacional de drogas, fuerte para los débiles y débil para los fuertes: penas altas para los pequeños traficantes e impunidad para los que se encuentran en el vértice de las organizaciones criminales. Además, resulta preocupante la enorme capacidad corruptora del dinero proveniente del narcotráfico (blanqueo de dinero) para capturar miembros de los poderes del Estado: Ejecutivo, Legislativo y Judicial. El caso “cuellos blanco del puerto” es una muestra empírica de la intersección de la corrupción judicial –y sus adláteres- dentro del Estado peruano y las organizaciones del crimen organizado. Para conjurar estas alianzas, es preciso poner el acento en la punición de los delincuentes de cuello blanco del narcotráfico y sus colaboradores: abogados, jueces, fiscales, etc., que utilizan su profesión como tapadera para enriquecerse personalmente, en desmedro del bien común.
Topic:: Corruption, Trafficking, Financial Crimes, Impunity, Drugs, Judiciary, and White Collar Crime
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

16207. Western DAESH Women: Ideology, Profile and Motivation

Author:: Juan Carlos Antunez Moreno
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The DAESH has been particularly successful in recruiting Western women. There are differences in their profile and motivation with their male counterparts. The DAESH offered an alternative to Western secularist feminism, substituting salvation for emancipation (empowerment without gender equality). DAESH´s Western women played different roles. They were wives of jihadists, mothers and educators of the next generation, recruiters and fundraisers for the organisation and workers in the segregated institutions of the Caliphate. They were also involved in violent actions when the time came, depending on the needs of the organisation. The analysis on DAESH Western women is often influenced by prejudices, stereotypes, and gender biases. Counterterrorism efforts need for the integration of the gender perspectives and needs for more women to detect radicalization as well as in prevention, de-radicalisation, and reintegration processes.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

16208. Pacifying Police Units and private interests in Brazil

Author:: Mayane Dore, Gabriel Bayarri, and Daniel Marías
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: This article analyzes a concrete policy in the framework of Brazilian Public Security: the Pacifying Police Units (UPPs). It describes this policy and justifies, through an ethnographic case study, how the so-called “pacification of the favelas” articulates a logic of neoliberal urbanism and police infrastructure, understanding the residents of the favelas as potential consumers of their services. The article contextualizes the UPPs model as a paradigmatic case of public security in Latin America in which the discourse of violence/pacification is the main catalyst for private investments. More specifically, the article demonstrates how private companies resort to proximity conflicts mediation as a way of avoiding the judicialization of conflicts with the residents after the “Pacification”. With this case, we expect to illustrate the patrimonialism and clientelism that shapes the Brazilian State and its ambiguous relationships between private and public interests.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Neoliberalism, Violence, Urban, Police, and Patrimonialism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16209. Pruebas de ingreso como predictores del rendimiento académico en los aspirantes a soldados del Ejército (Entrance Tests as Predictors of Academic Performance in Army Soldier Applicants)

Author:: Germán Geovanny Muñoz Gualán and Efrain Eduardo Zambrano Rosales
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El rendimiento académico del aspirante a soldado es el conjunto de indicadores de materias académicas, preparación física y actitud militar que presenta dentro del instituto de formación militar, puesto que el producto que se pretende entregar al Ejército y la sociedad, es un individuo disciplinado y preparado académica, militar y físicamente, acorde a los estándares establecidos en el Modelo de Educación Militar de Fuerzas Armadas y el plan de carrera en ciencias militares de la Universidad de Fuerzas Armadas – ESPE. Además, es necesario complementar esta formación al inculcar la convicción de hacer una carrera militar profesional y ética. Es así, que el objetivo planteado fue establecer los resultados de las pruebas de ingreso que predicen el rendimiento académico de los aspirantes a soldados de segundo año militar, promoción 2018-2020, de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados del Ejército Ecuatoriano “Vencedores del Cenepa”. Por lo cual, esta investigación presenta un enfoque cuantitativo, con diseño no experimental, de tipo transversal y un alcance correlacional. Se utilizó los promedios de las pruebas de ingreso y rendimiento académico por períodos académicos y corte anual de cada aspirante a soldado, del archivo y base de datos de la Escuela de Formación de Soldados “Vencedores del Cenepa”, para su tabulación en una matriz de Excel prediseñada y el posterior análisis estadístico en el programa SPSS. De modo que se observa una correlación significativa moderada, entre las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso con el rendimiento académico, una correlación baja con la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados y la no existencia de correlación con la deserción estudiantil. Además, las pruebas de ingreso que predicen de forma moderada el rendimiento académico y de forma baja la actitud militar de los aspirantes a soldados son las pruebas académicas y físicas de ingreso.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Academic Performance
Political Geography:: South America and Global Focus

16210. De la fragmentación de las estructuras criminales a una proto-mafia: un análisis del Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) en Sudamérica (From the Fragmentation of Criminal Structures to a Proto-Mafia: An Analysis of the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) in South America)

Author:: Carolina Sampó and Marcos Alan Ferreira
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Este artículo examina cómo el Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) se estructura como un modelo particular de organización criminal en Sudamérica, entre lo que podría considerarse un cartel de tercera generación y una proto-mafia. Tras el fin de los grandes carteles colombianos, las organizaciones criminales debieron modificar la forma en la que se estructuraban. Estos cambios, se tradujeron en una marcada fragmentación que generó una multiplicidad de organizaciones pequeñas en Sudamérica que lograron ingresar al mercado del tráfico de droga, impulsadas por la “democratización” de la cocaína. Sin embargo, en la última década en Brasil se ha visto el proceso contrario. Mientras que en Latinoamérica se pasó de la concentración a la fragmentación – de la existencia de los carteles a la proliferación de un gran número de estructuras criminales pequeñas-, en Brasil, el PCC ha dejado de estar fragmentado para concentrarse y multiplicar su poder, a partir de su presencia y fortaleza en todo el territorio nacional, pero también gracias a su transnacionalización hacia países productores de drogas como Paraguay, Bolivia y Perú. Cabe preguntarnos entonces si estamos frente al surgimiento de una nueva generación de estructuras criminales, que se auto-perciben como empresas transnacionales y que adoptan una forma distinta a la de los carteles tradicionales, mucho más flexible y capaz de adaptarse frente al cambio, lo que las vuelve similar a una mafia, aunque no se han consolidado como tales aún.
Topic:: Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, and Cartels
Political Geography:: South America, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

16211. Brasil nuclear: dos interpretaciones opuestas sobre la orientación de su programa atómico (Nuclear Brazil: Two Opposed Interpretations about the Orientation of its Atomic Program)

Author:: Juan Francisco Morales Giraldo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Al analizar el programa nuclear de Brasil desde dos enfoques teóricos distintos, su orientación y propósitos presentan también importantes diferencias. Las perspectivas más optimistas, de corte liberal, enfatizan que la política exterior de un país debería juzgarse desde aspectos favorables a los valores democráticos, el respeto por las normas internacionales y la autoevaluación de la legitimidad frente al escrutinio de la opinión pública. Pero al contrario de enfoques que se sostienen en argumentos normativos, una perspectiva basada en una política de poder incidiría en aspectos menos idealistas: la reconfiguración de la jerarquía del poder internacional y las aspiraciones de una potencia global emergente como motivaciones subyacentes para los desarrollos técnicos del programa atómico. Este trabajo sopesa la relativa utilidad de ambas perspectivas, enfocándose en situaciones, desarrollos y discursos del pasado reciente que permiten inferir la orientación política el programa nuclear del Brasil. El estudio procede contrastando las evidencias recogidas con elementos teóricos asociados a cada perspectiva. En una primera parte, se compara la política exterior del Brasil respecto al régimen de no proliferación con lo que las tesis liberales plantean acerca de la conducta estatal. En ese sentido, tendrían especial importancia explicativa el peso normativo de las instituciones internacionales, la democracia interna y la legitimidad que otorga el apego a estos principios. En el segundo apartado se adopta una perspectiva opuesta: las tesis liberales respecto a la problemática del programa nuclear del Brasil son vistas de manera crítica según una interpretación de su orientación basada en una política revisionista y pragmática en consonancia con objetivos mayores de estatus internacional y relaciones de poder con las grandes potencias. La evidencia más importante, la ambigüedad de un programa nuclear pacífico con fines militares, sugeriría que es la segunda perspectiva la que posee mayor capacidad explicativa de los propósitos del Brasil en esta materia. Las conclusiones del estudio se enfocan en tres distinciones esenciales entre ambos enfoques que responden a las interrogantes planteadas: la ausencia de un programa de armas nucleares en contraste con la militarización de la tecnología nuclear y sus aplicaciones; el apego a la institucionalidad internacional en contraste con el pragmatismo y la selectividad en el cumplimiento de ciertos principios; y, finalmente, las fronteras conceptuales poco claras que quedan expuestas por el programa nuclear del Brasil.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Science and Technology, Nonproliferation, Realism, and Liberalism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

16212. Naturaleza de los conflictos e inteligencia artificial: ¿ruptura de una continuidad? (Nature of Conflicts and Artificial Intelligence: A Continuity Break?)

Author:: Jules Palayer
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Los ejércitos son permeables a cambios que ocurren en las sociedades en las que se insertan, de este modo, todo lo revolucionario que pueda ser la inteligencia artificial (IA) para las sociedades podrá serlo para los militares. Debido a la profundidad de los cambios en ciernes, cabe preguntarse, ¿de qué manera cambiará la naturaleza de los conflictos futuros? El objetivo del presente documento es responder a esta incógnita enmarcando los efectos de la IA en uno de sus tres posibles impactos en la naturaleza del conflicto: el impacto mínimo, el evolucionario y el revolucionario. Para determinar cuál de ellos se ajusta más a la realidad examinaremos la introducción de la IA en el mundo militar como una revolución en los asuntos militares (RMA) cuyo telón de fondo es la revolución socio militar (RSM) post-moderna. Veremos cuestiones tecnológicas, doctrinales y organizativas entorno a la IA para arrojar luz sobre su impacto en la naturaleza del conflicto futuro.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16213. El islam en Rusia: desafíos a la seguridad y respuestas estratégicas (Islam in Russia: Security Challenges and Strategic Responses)

Author:: María José Pérez del Pozo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El islam forma parte de la historia y de la cultura rusas desde el siglo VII, colaborando activamente en el proceso de construcción del Estado, desarrollando relaciones con otros grupos sociales, con los que ha compartido espacios, historia y políticas de asimilación. Sin embargo, la comunidad musulmana ha tenido un papel asimétrico frente a otros grupos étnicos y culturales del Estado, ocupando, durante largos periodos históricos, una posición periférica en asuntos políticos, militares y económicos. A lo largo de los años 90, la religión se convirtió en un elemento de reivindicación nacionalista contra el poder federal, incentivado por la entrada de un islam transnacional radical importado de los países de Oriente Medio de predominio sunita. Las dos guerras chechenas y la posterior gestión de la zona por parte de Moscú han favorecido la aplicación de un nuevo esquema de análisis basado en la etnicidad-seguridad, que generaliza una interpretación negativa del islam en Rusia. La división de las instituciones religiosas musulmanas tampoco ha facilitado la interlocución interétnica ni la relación con el Kremlin. El estudio de las estrategias rusas frente al desafío del islam se ha orientado tradicionalmente al análisis de la dimensión de seguridad, enfocándose en las respuestas militares de los órganos de seguridad del Estado ruso, ya que, la propia disfuncionalidad del sistema político y la ausencia de políticas basadas en al respeto a los derechos individuales ha impedido la aparición de otras iniciativas que consideren la convivencia interétnica e interreligiosa en un Estado declarado laico. Sin embargo, podemos estudiar también las iniciativas rusas aplicando el enfoque del estudio de la política exterior de los Estados para analizar la utilización de la diversidad religiosa en la obtención de determinados objetivos de política exterior. En este sentido, el trabajo aborda la función de los grupos militares procedentes del Cáucaso, integrados en las fuerzas federales rusas, dentro del conflicto sirio. Finalmente, los programas vinculados a la Prevención del Extremismo Violento (PEV) en el Cáucaso Norte, con sus limitaciones, muestran también un cierto cambio en la implementación y gestión de nuevos métodos para frenar la insurgencia regional.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and North Caucasus

16214. La brecha de ciberseguridad en América Latina frente al contexto global de ciberamenazas (The Cyber Security Gap in Latin America Against the Global Context of Cyber Threats)

Author:: Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La presente investigación parte de la hipótesis de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe están rezagados en la construcción de ciber capacidades de defensa para enfrentar el contexto actual e internacional de ciber amenazas, respecto a los países miembros de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN), tanto en el plano de organización, como en el individual. Para probar este enunciado el texto se divide en seis secciones. En la primera se presenta el entorno global amenazas provenientes de ciberespacio, las pérdidas económicas que sufren gobiernos y empresas según informes de firmas de seguridad informática como Kaspersky, Microsoft, Verizon e International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). En la segunda parte, se aborda el proceso de securitización del internet, la inmersión de la ciberseguridad en los estudios de seguridad nacional, así como la definición de ciber capacidades y delimitación de amenazas al Estado-Nación desde el ciberespacio. En la tercera se aborda la trayectoria de la OTAN como organización en el desarrollo ciber capacidades en los últimos veinte años. En la cuarta parte, se analiza desde el nivel individual un conjunto de Estrategias Nacionales de Ciberseguridad (ENCS) de los países y aliados de la OTAN, de las cuales se extraen sus principales elementos y se esquematiza su anatomía general. En la sexta parte, se presenta una aproximación a diferentes entornos regionales o globales de ciberseguridad con base a mediciones del Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI), de la Unión Internacional de Telecomunicaciones (ITU por sus siglas en inglés), y el National Cyber Security Index (NSCI) de la E-Governance Academy de Estonia. En la quinta sección se presenta el contexto de la ciberseguridad en América Latina y el Caribe, según estudios realizados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) y la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), así como firmas privadas de ciberseguridad. En la sexta, se presenta de manera breve dos estudios de caso de México, del bienio 2019-2020, que representan la falta de madurez de su ENCS y desarrollo de ciber capacidades, aspecto que comparte con la mayoría de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Por último, se presentan unas breves conclusiones sobre los aspectos a fortalecer por la región.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Latin America

16215. Migraciones, deportaciones, colonización y geopolítica durante las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) (Migrations, Deportations, Colonization and Geopolitics during Trajan’s Dacian Wars (101 -106 AD))

Author:: David Soria Molina
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Las guerras dácicas de Trajano (101-106 d.C.) implicaron múltiples movimientos de población por parte de todos los contendientes, que afectaron al desarrollo y desenlace del conflicto, condicionando muchas de las decisiones de las potencias implicadas. Del mismo modo, la intensidad y escala de la conflagración, que se extendió a lo largo y ancho de la Europa danubiana y póntica, se saldó con cuantiosas pérdidas de población, consecuencia directa e indirecta de los enfrentamientos armados. Finalmente, el proceso de consolidación del poder romano en Dacia tras la conquista y sus particularidades supusieron la deportación y desplazamiento intencional de grupos de población nativa, migraciones hacia zonas libres de la ocupación romana y otros problemas de orden sociopolítico y demográfico resueltos por el Imperio romano mediante una colonización planificada del nuevo territorio y toda una serie de arreglos diplomáticos concluidos en 119 d.C. En este artículo abordamos, a través de las fuentes literarias, epigráficas, numismáticas, arqueológicas e iconográficas disponibles, estos procesos demográficos, las realidades derivadas de los mismos y sus consecuencias en el marco de las guerras dácicas de Trajano, procesos que condicionaron la situación geopolítica de la región y, por lo tanto, la futura configuración de la Europa del Este.
Topic:: Migration, War, History, Geopolitics, and Deportation
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

16216. COVID-19 has a postcode: How urban housing and spatial inequality are shaping the COVID-19 crisis

Author:: Jeni Klugman and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: COVID-19 has underlined that spatial inequality is relevant—and costly—everywhere: not only in developing countries. The pandemic has exposed sharp inequalities in prosperous cities, such as New York and San Francisco, as well as in slums and informal settlements in developing countries such as Kenya and Iran. For an estimated 1.4 billion people living in informal settlements, home is crowded, inadequate, and unsafe. In the words of one observer, “[w]ith COVID-19, we are all in the same storm. We are not all in the same boat.” This paper presents the results of a rapid appraisal carried out in May 2020. It surveys how existing urban inequalities have played out in practice, how spatial inequality has shaped the repercussions of COVID-19, and how housing-related program and community responses have helped close—or exacerbated—these gaps. It also outlines the opportunities and prospects for longer term reforms. While data and empirical analysis are still nascent, academic, government, and civil society groups, as well as news outlets, have quickly ramped up efforts to document and study the pandemic and its numerous effects. We assess emerging evidence about how the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts reflect residential segregation, including how they differentially affect renters, people who live in informal settlements, and the homeless. The COVID-19 crisis calls for rapid and innovative responses to address strains on lives and livelihoods. Our review identifies many promising emergency responses—from temporary eviction moratoria to cash transfer programs—aimed at mitigating COVID-19’s immediate impact.
Topic:: Inequality, Fragile States, Crisis Management, Cities, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16217. From the Global to the Local: Leveraging International Engagement to Advance Justice at Home

Author:: Maha Jweied
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: This policy paper is authored by Maha Jweied, who served in the U.S. government between 2006-2018, most recently as the Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office for Access to Justice. Maha is currently a fellow at CIC-NYU and advisor to the Pathfinders for Justice. This paper sets out how the former U.S. Department of Justice’s Office for Access to Justice leveraged international activity and mechanisms, including the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, to advance its domestic priorities. The strategy resulted in notable accomplishments and even protected a number of them after the office was closed in 2018. The brief also recommends that the incoming Biden-Harris Administration reestablish the Office for Access to Justice, revitalize the White House Legal Aid Interagency Roundtable charged with implementing Goal 16 for the United States, link U.S. domestic priorities to all 17 Sustainable Development Goals, and prioritize the United States’ role as a leader in the global movement for equal justice for all.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Inequality, and Justice
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16218. Technology and the Future of Work

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Recent decades have seen rapid increases in the use of robots and rapid advances in artificial intelligence, driven particularly by improvements in machine learning. From games like chess and Go to speech recognition and image recognition, machines have come to outperform humans in an expanding range of activities. This development has motivated many attempts to gauge the impact on the future of work for humans. Frey and Osborne estimate that 47% of total US employment is in jobs at high risk of automation within the next decade or two. Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn in turn estimate the figure is 9% in the USA and 10% in UK, while PwC estimate 38% in the USA, 35% in Germany, 30% in the UK, and 21% in Japan are at risk. This policy paper reviews the relationships between automation, artifical intelligence, and jobs, a retrospective look at technological upheavel throughout history, and what the future of work looks like by country and sector. Additionally, the paper considers the transformation, redistribution, and recognition of what work looks like globally as a byproduct of new technologies, as well as the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the future of work. Case studies from India and the Philippines provides prominent success stories of developing countries creating tradeable services industries, while two examples from Nordic countries and Estonia highlight novel policies in developed countries to ensure the benefits of new technologies are widely shared. Finally, Goldin provides recommendations for governments, international agencies, and other partners to to support employment and inclusive growth in the face of technological change.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Security, Transnational Actors, Artificial Intelligence, and Workforce
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, India, East Asia, and United States of America

16219. The Just Transition in Energy

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: With each new year of data, and each new intergovernmental report, it becomes harder to deny the scale and urgency of the energy transition required to prevent catastrophic anthropogenic climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urges countries to take action to prevent a rise in temperature by more than 1.5°C, and warns of catastrophic consequences of a rise above 2°C. Yet current policies and pledges fall far short of hitting these targets. Worse, since harmful climate change is caused by the stock of carbon in the atmosphere, the longer we delay measures to limit the flow of new carbon into the atmosphere, the more drastic those measures will have to be. This uneven distribution of threat and responsibility raises difficult questions. Developed countries are generally more advanced in their transition to renewables, which means that some of the cheapest opportunities to reduce emissions are in developing countries. Yet the fact remains that developed countries are responsible for a larger share of historic emissions—and developing countries may have a right to pursue development unhindered, as developed countries did in earlier decades. There are therefore several elements of the “just transition” in energy. The world needs to transition to cleaner energy, and the developing world needs to keep developing, all while supporting the countries and communities that bear the highest costs of mitigation measures—and supporting those areas already beginning to feel the negative effects of climate change. This report will outline the key challenges and opportunities and conclude with a series of practical steps available to policymakers.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Security, Crisis Management, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, East Asia, South Africa, Latin America, West Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

16220. Radical Right Counter Narratives Expert Workshop Report

Author:: Hedayah
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This report presents some of the overarching themes, key insights, and modes of practice discussed over the two-day workshop in order to convey current trends and best practices in the area of radical right extremist counter-narratives. This workshop report is one of the many deliverables produced as part of the Radical Right Counter Narrative Collection project, funded through the STRIVE Global program and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right.
Topic:: Radical Right, Political Extremism, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Europe, New Zealand, Global Focus, and United States of America

16221. Employment and Earnings of African Americans Fifty Years After: Progress?

Author:: Philip Moss, William Lazonick, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) was established in 1965 to implement Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which made it illegal to discriminate against an individual in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, sex or national origin. Coming into the 1960s, the employment opportunity that privileged the white male was much more than a job. By the 1960s, growing numbers of white men had employment that gave them steadily rising real earnings, often with decades of tenure at one organization. The “career-with-one-company” (CWOC) that had become the employment norm by the beginning of the 1960s included health insurance and a defined-benefit pension, both funded by the employee’s business corporation or government agency. CWOC is what, in the decades immediately after World War II, turned much of white America into a growing and thriving middle class.
Topic:: History, Minorities, and Employment
Political Geography:: United States of America

16222. International Financial Regulation: Why It Still Falls Short

Author:: William White
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: While recent reforms are welcome in many ways, there are still significant reasons to doubt that the post-crisis tightening of international financial regulation guarantees future financial and economic stability. The most important reason is that the reforms have focused too narrowly on ensuring that an unstable financial sector will not aggravate downturns by restricting the supply of credit. More attention needs to be paid to ensuring that an overly exuberant financial system does not weaken other parts of the economy by encouraging a rapid buildup of debt during upturns. Some combination of time-varying monetary and regulatory policies (a macrofinancial stability framework) will be required to do this. In addition, many of the individual regulatory measures taken to date, both macroprudential and microprudential, have shortcomings. Their coherence as a package has also been questioned.
Topic:: Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Reform, Banks, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16223. Government as the First Investor in Biopharmaceutical Innovation: Evidence From New Drug Approvals 2010–2019

Author:: Ekaterina Cleary, Matthew J. Jackson, and Fred D. Ledley
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The discovery and development of new medicines classically involves a linear process of basic biomedical research to uncover potential targets for drug action, followed by applied, or translational, research to identify candidate products and establish their effectiveness and safety. This Working Paper describes the public sector contribution to that process by tracing funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) related to published research on each of the 356 new drugs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from 2010-2019 as well as research on their 218 biological targets. Specifically, we describe the timelines of clinical development for these products and proxy measures of their importance, including designations as first-inclass or expedited approvals. We model the maturation of basic research on the biological targets for drugs to determine the initiation and established points of this research, and demonstrate that none of the 232 products modelled were approved before this enabling research passed the established point. This body of essential research comprised 2 million publications, of which 409 thousand were supported by 317 thousand Funding Years of NIH Project support totaling $156 billion. Research on the 356 drugs comprised 229 thousand publications, of which 36 thousand were supported by 42 thousand Funding Years of NIH Project support totaling $31 billion. Overall, NIH funding contributed to research associated with every new drug approved from 2010-2019, totaling $187 billion. This funding supported investigator-initiated Research Projects, Cooperative Agreements for government-led research on topics of particular importance, as well as Research Program Projects and Centers and training to support the research infrastructure. This NIH funding also produced 22 thousand patents, which provided marketing exclusivity for 27 (8.6%) of the drugs approved 2010-2019. These data demonstrate the essential role of public sector-funded basic research in drug discovery and development, as well as the scale and character of this funding. It also demonstrates the limited mechanisms available for recognizing the value created by these early investments and ensuring appropriate public returns. This analysis demonstrates the importance of sustained public investment in basic biomedical science as well as the need for policy innovations that fully realize the value of public sector investments in pharmaceutical innovation that ensure that these investments yield meaningful improvements in health.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Research, Public Policy, Innovation, State Funding, Pharmaceuticals, and Funding
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

16224. Voting Rights, Deindustrialization, and Republican Ascendancy in the South

Author:: Grant Wright
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The Voting Rights Act of 1965 revolutionized politics in the American South. These changes also had economic consequences, generating gains for white as well as Black southerners. Contrary to the widespread belief that the region turned Republican in direct response to the Civil Rights Revolution, expanded voting rights led to twenty-five years of competitive two-party politics, featuring strong biracial coalitions in the Democratic Party. These coalitions remained competitive in most states until the Republican Revolution of the 1990s. This abrupt rightward shift had many causes, but critical for southern voters were the trade liberalization measures of 1994, specifically NAFTA and the phase-out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement which had protected the textiles and apparel industries for decades. The consequences of Republican state regimes have been severe, including intensified racial polarization, loss of support for public schools and higher education, and harsh policies toward low-income populations.
Topic:: History, Minorities, Voting, Voting Rights, Deindustrialization, and African Americans
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16225. Masters of Illusion: Bank and Regulatory Accounting for Losses in Distressed Banks

Author:: Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This essay is part of a larger work on the history of Federal Reserve policymaking entitled Banking on Bull. The study seeks to explain why the instruments of central banking inevitably break down over time. A big part of the explanation is that policymakers want accounting measures of bank net worth to be flexible enough to allow bankers and regulators to slow the release of adverse information about distressed banks, particularly very large ones. Modern regulatory frameworks focus on maintaining what can be described as the adequacy of accounting capital. But this framework is bull, because in tough times, bank accountants know how to make losses disappear.
Topic:: Federal Reserve, Regulation, Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16226. Unemployment and Income Distribution: Some Extensions of Shaikh’s Analysis

Author:: Walter Paternesi Meloni and Antonella Stirati
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: After the 1980s, advanced capitalist economies witnessed a significant decline of the labor share in income. Along with the conventional view, which ascribed this decline to technological factors and international trade, another line of enquiry has endorsed a ‘Political Economy’ approach to identifying several drivers of the labor share erosion. Among the latter, the role of persistent labor market slack has remained relatively unexplored. We try to fill this gap moving from a recent contribution by Anwar Shaikh, who elaborated on the relation between unemployment and changes in income distribution and in the US economy. We study this relationship by adopting a long-term approach, using two alternative measures of labor market slack (namely, the unemployment rate and the unemployment intensity, an index that incorporates the duration of unemployment). We first extend Shaikh’s method of analysis to eight mature countries, and subsequently we approach the relationship between changes in labor market slack and the (adjusted) wage share in the private sector of the economy from 1960 to 2017 with other econometric techniques. Our findings confirm the existence of a negative relationship between labor market slack and the wage share, and we find no tendency to return to a ‘normal’ unemployment rate associated with a stable wage share.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Unemployment, Labor Market, Collective Bargaining, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16227. Shadow Lobbyists

Author:: Rocco d'Este, Mirko Draca, and Christian Fons-Rosen
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Special interest influence via lobbying is increasingly controversial and legislative efforts to deal with this issue have centered on the principle of transparency. In this paper we evaluate the effectiveness of the current regulatory framework provided by the US Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA). Specifically, we study the role of ex-Congressional officials who join US lobbying firms in positions that could be related to lobbying activity but without officially registering as lobbyists themselves. We find that firm lobbying revenues increase significantly when these potential ‘shadow lobbyists’ join, with effects in the range of 10-20%. This shadow lobbyist revenue effect is comparable to the effect of a registered lobbyist at the median of the industry skill distribution. As such, it is challenging to reconcile the measured shadow lobbyist effect with the 20% working time threshold for registering as a lobbyist. Based on our estimates, the contribution of unregistered ex-Congressional officials could explain 4.9% of the increase in sectoral revenues, compared to 24.0% for the group of registered officials.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Politics, Regulation, Money, Lobbying, and Revolving Door
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16228. Predicting United States Policy Outcomes with Random Forests

Author:: Shawn K. McGuire and Charles B. Delahunt
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Two decades of U.S. government legislative outcomes, as well as the policy preferences of highincome people, the general population, and diverse interest groups, were captured in a detailed dataset curated and analyzed by Gilens, Page et al. (2014). They found that the preferences of high-income earners correlated strongly with policy outcomes, while the preferences of the general population did not, except via a linkage with the preferences of high earners. Their analysis applied the tools of classical statistical inference, in particular logistic regression. In this paper we analyze the Gilens dataset using the complementary tools of Random Forest classifiers (RFs), from Machine Learning. We present two primary findings, concerning respectively prediction and inference: (i) Holdout test sets can be predicted with approximately 70% balanced accuracy by models that consult only the preferences of those in the 90th income percentile and a small number of powerful interest groups, as well as policy area labels. These results include retrodiction, where models trained on pre-1997 cases predicted “future” (post-1997) cases. The 20% gain in accuracy over baseline (chance), in this detailed but noisy dataset, indicates the high importance of a few distinct players in U.S. policy outcomes, and aligns with a body of research indicating that the U.S. government has significant plutocratic tendencies. (ii) The feature selection methods of RF models identify especially salient subsets of interest groups (economic players). These can be used to further investigate the dynamics of governmental policy making, and also offer an example of the potential value of RF feature selection methods for inference on datasets such as this one.
Topic:: Political Economy, Elections, Public Policy, Money, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16229. Carbon Pricing and the Elasticity of CO2 Emissions

Author:: Ryan Rafaty, Geoffroy Dolphin, and Felix Pretis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We study the impact of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions across five sectors for a panel of 39 countries over 1990-2016. Using newly constructed sector-level carbon price data, we implement a novel approach to estimate the changes in CO2 emissions associated with (i) the introduction of carbon pricing regardless of the price level; (ii) the implementation effect as a function of the price level; and (iii) post-implementation marginal changes in the CO2 price. We find that the introduction of carbon pricing has reduced growth in CO2 emissions by 1% to 2.5% on average relative to counterfactual emissions, with most abatement occurring in the electricity and heat sector. Exploiting variation in carbon pricing to explain heterogeneity in treatment effects, we find an imprecisely estimated semi-elasticity of a 0.05% reduction in emissions growth per average $1/metric ton (hereafter abbreviated as: ton) of CO2. After the carbon price has been implemented, each marginal price increase of $1/tCO2 has temporarily lowered the growth rate of CO2 emissions by around 0.01%. These are disappointingly small effects. Simulating potential future emissions reductions in response to carbon price paths, we conclude that – in the absence of complementary non-pricing policy interventions – carbon pricing alone, even if implemented globally, is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve emission reductions consistent with the Paris climate agreement.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16230. The Future of the Automotive Industry: Dangerous Challenges or New Life for a Saturated Market?

Author:: Annamaria Simonazzi, Jorge Carreto Sanginés, and Margherita Russo
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The automotive industry is undergoing a radical transformation. New social, technological, environmental and geopolitical challenges are redefining the characteristics of a saturated market, opening new scenarios while offering opportunities for the entry of new players. These challenges are bound to trigger reorganization of the global value chain between old and new suppliers and car makers and their suppliers, affecting the distribution of employment, the regionalization of production and the dynamic evolution of the comparative advantage of nations. In this paper we address the issue of the reorganization of global value chains in the face of these challenges. The analysis will compare the relative position of core and peripheries in the North-American and European macro-regions, focusing on Mexico, which represents a significant case study for analysis of the impact of the digital transformation on the domestic value chain in an “integrated periphery”, and of trade agreements on the location policies of big multinationals. The dependency of the Mexican automotive industry on the strategic decisions of global players is considered a factor of great vulnerability, especially in a context of rapid change in the patterns of consumption, technologies and international trade agreements. For Mexico, as for European producers in the integrated and semi-peripheries, the main challenge in the near future will be posed by the radical transformation the industry is going through in electrical and autonomous-driving vehicles, which sees regions and players outside the traditional automotive clusters in the lead. The transformations taking place are bound to change the global structure of automotive production. The rise of new competitors from the emerging economies and would-be entrants from other sectors, competing in mastering the new digital and software technologies, threatens the established structure of the industry. The pandemic has led to a spectacular acceleration in the process of change, while heightening uncertainty about future developments. This is why the governments of leading countries are joining in the race, wielding carrots and sticks in support of their industries and in the endeavor to encourage risk-taking and investment in research and innovation, step up e-vehicle production while providing for the necessary infrastructures, and guarantee their companies a place in the new industry.
Topic:: Markets, Networks, Integration, Decarbonization, Digitalization, Production, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Mexico

16231. Democratic Change and Urbanisation in the Aftermath of the Arab Revolts: Euro-Mediterranean Cultural Cooperation in Local Urban Development in Morocco and Tunisia

Author:: Hannah Abdullah
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011 emerged from societies that had been suffering the negative consequences of rapid and unplanned urbanisation for over two decades. The political and socioeconomic discontent that spurred the revolts was closely related to the increase in urban poverty and high levels of inequality that came with these developments. In its response to the Arab revolts, the European Union (EU) only engaged marginally with their urban causes, and above all from a technical rather than political perspective. This focus on technical urban solutions was in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South and its prioritisation of security and stabilisation concerns over democracy promotion. This article analyses how Euro-Mediterranean cultural cooperation programmes, which form an integral part of the EU’s civil society agenda in the region, was an exception by offering a more political response to the urban discontent that spurred the revolts. The focus is on a programme that supported civil society organizations (CSOs) in Tunisia and Morocco in their effort to assert their “right to the city” by formulating cultural solutions to promote democratic and sustainable local urban development. The article examines how the programme sought to strike a balance between the ENP’s stabilisation and democratisation concerns by fostering collaborative relations between CSOs and public authorities, especially at local level. While the two country case studies are not reflective of EU cultural relations with the region as a whole, the analysis points towards possible ways in which cultural cooperation can engage with the complex relationship between democratic change and urbanisation, and how CSOs can become effective partners in this endeavour. At a more theoretical level, the article examines what role the EU’s strategy for cultural relations has played in its wider civil society agenda in the Southern Neighbourhood, and how urban issues have featured in this overlapping policy space.
Topic:: Culture, Social Movement, Urbanization, Democracy, Inequality, Arab Spring, and Urban
Political Geography:: Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

16232. How Can We Increase Turnout among Low Propensity Voters?

Author:: Seth Hill, Thad Kousser, Gabriel Lenz, Mackenzie Lockhart, and Elizabeth Mitchell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: How can we increase voter turnout among low-propensity voters? Researchers and practitioners have found interventions that increase voter turnout, but these interventions tend to increase turnout among individuals already likely to vote, and therefore appear to exacerbate existing inequalities in participation. This project developed and tested an intervention designed to encourage people with a lower prior likelihood of voting into the electorate. First, in summer 2018, we surveyed a diverse sample of voting and non-voting Californians about their political attitudes. We concluded that feeling inadequately informed and feeling inefficacious may contribute to low turnout rates. Based on the results of the survey, we designed messages to address these feelings and tested them in an experiment to increase turnout in two special elections in June 2019 by targeting these sentiments among people with infrequent prior turnout records. Letters with information and encouragement about the voting process did not increase turnout in the subsequent election. We conclude that further work is needed to identify interventions that successfully increase turnout among low-propensity voters.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16233. How Did the Voter’s Choice Act Affect Turnout in 2018?

Author:: Eric McGhee, Mindy Romero, and Laura Daly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In its first year of implementation, did the Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) change turnout patterns in the counties – Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo – that adopted this new reform? How did this reform affect the turnout of groups of Californians – young voters, Latinos, and Asian Americans– who have often participated in elections at lower rates than others? We address these questions by gathering data on turnout rates, voter demographics, and electoral competition from 2002 through the primary and general elections of 2018, comparing trends in the adopting counties to the rest of the state.
Topic:: Demographics, Reform, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16234. How Do Californians Want to Cast their Ballots During the COVID-19 Crisis?

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April 2020, how did Californians of all demographic groups want to cast their ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic, what changes to the electoral process would they support during this critical moment, and how would reforms made in 2020 reshape our state’s electorate in the future? We address these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters (adult citizens) conducted April 8-22, 2020. As a whole, California’s eligible voters plan to vote by mail more than ever before in November 2020. Voting by mail is the method that gives them the most confidence in the integrity of election results, and they are strongly supportive of policies that expand access to voting by mail. The level of support for voting by mail differs across California’s diverse racial and ethnic groups. Consistent with past studies, our survey found that Latino and African-American eligible voters are generally less likely to prefer this method of voting than non-Latino whites and Asian Americans. It will be important to consider the potentially disparate impacts that any election administration changes could bring and to conduct broad outreach efforts. When presented with scientific projections predicting a fall peak in the impact of COVID-19, eligible voters were even more likely to prefer voting by mail and to express concerns about waiting in line or working at a polling place that did not adhere to social distancing protocols. Specifying a set of social distancing guidelines for in-perso
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16235. Messaging Matters: How Information about Underrepresentation Affects the Political Participation of Racial and Ethnic Groups in California

Author:: Cheryl Boudreau, Jennifer Merolla, and Sono Shah
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Can racial and ethnic minorities be mobilized to participate in politics at greater rates? We theorize that mobilization messages providing information about a group’s underrepresentation in government may increase participation among racial/ethnic minorities. However, responsiveness to such messages should vary depending on individuals’ prior awareness of their group’s underrepresentation. Using a two-wave panel survey that randomly assigned different get out the vote messages, we find that messages highlighting a racial/ethnic group’s underrepresentation in government do not increase Latinos’, Blacks’, or Asians’ likelihood of voting. We also find that such messages can decrease other forms of political participation among Asians and Latinos who were previously unaware of their group’s underrepresentation. These findings indicate that information about underrepresentation can actually demobilize certain segments of the electorate. Thus, practical efforts to boost participation among underrepresented groups should either communicate information about underrepresentation in other ways or provide a different type of message altogether.
Topic:: Minorities, Elections, Diversity, Voting, Participation, Mobilization, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16236. The Pandemic in Prison: Implications for California Politics and Policymaking

Author:: Amy E. Lerman and Jessie Harney
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: The effects of COVID-19 across California have been devastating, but the impact of the virus has been particularly acute in the state’s overcrowded prisons and jails. The epidemic has clear implications for incarcerated individuals and their families, but also for the tens of thousands of Californians employed in the state’s prison system. These workers represent a powerful force in state politics (Myers, 2018; Williams et al., 2020).
Topic:: Labor Issues, Prisons/Penal Systems, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16237. Early in the Pandemic, There Was No Partisan Divide over Preferences for Voting by Mail in the 2020 Election

Author:: Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, Mackenzie Lockhart, Seth Hill, and Jennifer Merolla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In April, 2020, was there a partisan divide between eligible voters from California’s major parties over whether they preferred to vote in person or through mail ballots in the November election, and what percentage of likely voters from each party said they would not vote if the election were held exclusively through the mail? Did partisans divide over policy proposals about how to conduct this election? We investigate these questions by analyzing a statewide survey of a diverse sample of 12,276 eligible voters conducted April 8-22, 2020. When we asked eligible voters how they wanted to cast their ballots this November, we found no significant divide between the Republican and Democratic eligible voters. More than half of eligible voters in both parties prefer to cast a ballot by mail, with nearly another two in ten voters preferring to drop off a ballot that has been sent to them in the mail. Gaps of eight to twelve percentage points emerge between partisans over support for policies that advance voting by mail, though there is still a strong consensus supporting these changes among all partisan affiliations.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Public Health, Pandemic, Participation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16238. Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?

Author:: Jonathan Collins, Eddie Lucero, and Jessica Trounstine
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: In 2015, Governor Jerry Brown signed the California Voter Participation Rights Act (SB 415) into law. As its title suggests, the bill aimed to increase turnout in local elections by forcing all California jurisdictions to hold elections concurrently with statewide elections (in June or November of even years). Turnout in local elections is significantly lower than national turnout, averaging only 20% by some estimates (Alford and Lee 1968, Wood 2002, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Caren 2007, Hajnal 2009). Scholars have found that election timing is the most important predictor of differences in aggregate turnout rates across cities (Alford and Lee 1968, Anzia 2014, Anzia 2011, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). Hajnal and Lewis find that city elections that coincide with presidential elections are associated with a turnout of registered voters 36 percentage points higher than turnout in cities that do not hold elections that coincide with the presidential election (2001, 656). Caren finds that cities holding elections concurrent with the presidential election increase voter turnout by 27% compared to cities that do not (2007, 41). The logic behind SB 415 is that moving local elections to coincide with national elections will improve electoral participation.
Topic:: Elections, Voting, Participation, and Turnout
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16239. How Tunisia’s En-Nahda crafts Islamist politics: From programmatic failure to neo-Islamist framing

Author:: Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: En-Nahda’s participation in Tunisia’s post-revolutionary politics triggered an adaptive process, refecting a transition from theoretical elaborations to political practice. Switching from clandestine regime opposition to engagement in an emerging pluralistic system also puts to the test the grand narrative that defnes the movement’s rationale and intends to captivate the party’s potential constituency. After fve years in the game, assuming a tainted Islamist label and somehow acknowl- edging programmatic failure, the party’s leadership proposed a neo-Islamist framing, ‘Muslim democracy’, in 2016. Tis semantic operation aims to fuse two schools of thought, a confessional and a political one, with historically distinct governance systems and polit- ical cultures. Hence, despite this twist in rhetoric, a major challenge for En-Nahda remains the rec- onciliation of its utilitarian take on democratic procedures with its deep-rooted reference to Islamic principles. Yet while continuing to stress its readiness for concessions, suppos- edly in order to save Tunisia’s democratic transition, En-Nahda’s political programme, practice and narrative remain fawed, fuid and unconvincing respectively, eroding its credibility and incrementally reducing its mobilisation capacity.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Democracy, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

16240. President Joe Biden and the restoration of US global leadership: Turning the tide?

Author:: Ville Sinkkonen, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Bart Gaens, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Te election of Joe Biden as president and Kamala Har- ris as vice president of the United States has generally been welcomed across the world. Allies and partners are relieved that they will again be treated with respect as common issues are addressed, while having been re- minded that they too must ‘step up’ and not only rely on the United States. Even adversaries and competitors acknowledge that it is preferable for the north star of US foreign policy to be something other than impul- sive unpredictability. Based on Joe Biden’s worldview, the world will see a return to more traditional foreign policy precepts. Tis is refected in Biden’s choice of individuals for senior security policy positions in his administration. While the United States is a global power, each ad- ministration addresses the more enduring national interests in diferent ways. In the coming years, key issues to address include, frst, global challenges such as climate change and pandemics; second, strength- ening the transatlantic relationship and global coop- eration between democratic states more broadly; and third, reinforcing the US relationship with various Asian allies and partners, and managing competition with China. From a Nordic perspective, the Biden ad- ministration is expected to continue the cooperative agenda regarding regional security (bolstering defence cooperation and deterring against Russian encroach- ment) carried over from the Obama and Trump admin- istrations, while more robustly addressing global issues such as climate change.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16241. China’s policy towards Belarus and Ukraine: A limited challenge to Sino-Russian relations

Author:: Ryhor Nizhnikau and Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China traditionally pursued a pragmatic foreign poli- cy in the post-Soviet region, which was never seen as a priority in Beijing. It primarily based its policies on economic engagement with the local elite, who sought sources of politically unconditional loans and invest- ment, as well as the possibility to hedge their foreign policies vis-à-vis other regional powers. A growing economic presence promoted Chinese core interests in the region without challenging Russia’s political pre-eminence in the region and jeopardizing Rus- sia-China relations. However, in recent years, two factors have afect- ed the status quo and have led to greater engagement in the region by China. First, the region became an important part of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, and Belarus and/or Ukraine became a transport hub between China and the EU. Second, Russia’s policies turned more assertive towards its neighbourhood, whereas the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood policies lost steam after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine confict in 2014. Te new regional environment and domestic instabilities duly increased the importance of China for local elites. This Briefing Paper overviews the evolution of China’s cooperation with Belarus and Ukraine since 2013. One of the results has been a growing contrast in Chinese relations with Belarus and Ukraine. While China-Ukraine relations were driven by economic co- operation and a tremendous growth in bilateral trade, their political relations stagnated. China-Belarus rela- tions, on the other hand, have increasingly prioritized enhanced political and defence cooperation, despite consistent attempts by the Belarusian side to build up a Chinese economic presence in the country. Te paper argues that China deliberately opts to steer clear of power competition in the region and chooses to recognize both Russian special interests in the region and countries’ own foreign policy choices, be they integration with the EU or Russia. In Belarus and Ukraine, Beijing seems to exercise self-restraint in its policy, taking Russia’s interests into consider- ation. However, its growing presence in economic and cultural spheres as well as local elites’ increasing interest in engaging China in manoeuvring in the EU-Russia confict creates a window of opportunity for Beijing to apply its increasing economic and po- litical resources for political ends in the long-term perspective.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Belarus

16242. GENDER AND PEACEMAKING STRATEGY

Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: The European Institute of Peace is scaling up its efforts to incorporate the Women, Peace and Security Agenda across its work. In order to do this the Institute has developed a “Gender and Peacemaking” Strategy. This will contribute to achieving our vision of a world where people live in safety and peace because conflicts and grievances are resolved through inclusive dialogue and lasting political agreements. The Institute is committed to ensuring that gender perspectives, women’s meaningful participation and protection of their rights are a central component of our work. By using the Women, Peace and Security Agenda as a framework for a localised and rights-based approach to conflict prevention, resolution and peacebuilding we can contribute to international efforts to prevent conflict and create a more sustainable peace.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

16243. TIME TO STEP UP EU MEDIATION?

Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: The need and scope for conflict resolution and mediation is going up. The numbers of people affected by violence and conflict is increasing. The world is disfigured by prolonged, internationalised civil wars and growing civil unrest. Great power politics are resurgent, the conventions regulating states’ behaviour are fraying, and international law and human rights are being eroded. Profound demographic and climatic changes, the emergence of new technologies and of threats are changing the global landscape in ways that should bring humanity together but too often are exploited for commercial and political gain, driving insecurity and a sense of injustice. The EU has an enormous role to play in this context. It is a powerful global actor pursuing multiple objectives on the world stage. It is committed to human rights, gender equity, sustainable development and a rules based global order, and to supporting others that are taking action, whether inter- governmental and regional bodies such as the UN and AU, or civil society including at the very local level. But the EU also recognises, as the High Representative has put it, the need to learn “to use the language of power”, to deploy its capabilities, whether political, security, economic or regulatory, more strategically to shape reality, address the agents and drivers of violence, and secure peace. So what should the EU’s role in mediation be in this context? The review of the EU’s concept on mediation provides an excellent opportunity to generate debate and to define the parameters of the future of EU mediation frameworks. This study provides a snapshot of the views within the Brussels diplomatic and policy community. Even within this relatively confined universe, there is a very broad diversity of opinions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Human Rights, Peacekeeping, European Union, Sustainability, Mediation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Europe

16244. THE SIDAMA’S QUEST FOR SELF-RULE: A STUDY OF THE REFERENDUM ON REGIONAL STATEHOOD

Author:: Kjetil Tronvoll, Filata Boroje, and Kairedin Tezera
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: On 14 and 15 January 2020, the European Institute of Peace presented a report entitled “Sidama’s quest for self-rule: a study of the referendum on regional statehood” in Addis Ababa, to an audience of politicians, policy makers, activists, academics and researchers, civil society organisations, and interested citizens of Ethiopia. This study, conducted by Professor Kjetil Tronvoll with Filata Boroje and Kairedin Tezera on behalf of the Institute, assesses the referendum that was held among inhabitants of the Sidama zone Ethiopia on 20 November 2019.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Nation-State, Autonomy, Independence, and Statehood
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

16245. Consumer Expenditure Inequality in Botswana

Author:: Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: For over three decades, Botswana has achieved a fast growing economy, with an annual growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaging 10.9 percent in the period 1981- 90, faster even than the East Asian Tigers or China (Good and Hughes, 2002). Between 2000 and 2001 financial year, Botswana’s economy recorded higher growth rates of 9.1 percent, an increase from 8.1 percent recorded between 1999 and 2000, which was mainly attributed to the growth in the mining sector (BIDPA Briefing, 2002). To emphasise on the desire to continue growing, Botswana has adopted Vision 2036, and other development strategies and policies to improve the implementation of interventions tackling unsatisfactory social indicators. Botswana has also subscribed to both continental and international frameworks, such as the Africa Agenda 2063 and United Nations (UN) Millennium Declaration and its Eight Millennium Development Goals, and further signed up for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of 2030. Regardless of the afore-mentioned positive growth, and immense efforts, the country has not achieved the desirable results it sought with regard to some of the social indicators, such as employment, unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Demand, Unemployment, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

16246. The Impact of Disintegration Dynamics on EU Trade Policy: An Institutional Analysis

Author:: Konstantinos J. Hazakis
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: Safeguarding access to international markets requires an effective EU international trade policy. Equally important, preserving an open, rules-based world trading system presupposes strong EU capability as well as consensus of EU states on the scope and targets of EU international trade policy. The paper presents a policy oriented analytical framework of EU international trade policy taking into consideration the impact of disintegration dynamics and emerging trade protectionism. Initially, the analysis sets the problem while section two offers the major tenets of the politicization of EU international trade policy. Section three presents the key arguments of the institutional analysis on the issue while section four analyses the content of an alternative policy framework for understanding disintegration - EU trade policy interaction. Section five concludes and reaches useful policy implications. It is suggested that there is a need for more Europe on international trade meaning enhanced, effective and inclusive EU trade institutional action.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Global Markets, Rule of Law, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

16247. China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Triangle: Imperative Factors

Author:: Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi and Uzma Munshi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China, a rising power and Russia, a great power of the past is currently pursuing the aspiration to regain its lost glory, are at the center stage of Asian geopolitics. Starting from the first decade of twenty first century, the extra tilt of Russia‟s moderate ally India towards the US is ringing alarm bells for China, Russia and Pakistan more or less with an equal spell. Indian tilt towards the US culminating in a nuclear deal between the two in 2008 (Baker, 2008), specifically, post nuclear deal strategic partnership provides the former with a punch to pose a challenge to its two sheer competitors Pakistan and China. In fact, this emerging engagement between Indo-US is based on their shared interest of complicating the security calculations of Pakistan and China. Thus, the strategic partnership between India and the US provides a significant variable to Pakistan to dramatically change the dimensions of its security and strategic relationship with Asian powers such as China and Russia. For Pakistan this partnership will provide it not only an option to maintain balance in the region vis a vis India but it will also provide it with an alternate to the US in the form of realigning its relationship with Russia and China. While shunning off increasing US sway in near abroad is in the interests of both China and Russia, so, this emerging strategic triangle will mutually reciprocate their respective interests. Although, India is obsessed with a desire to become regional hegemon independently pose a significant threat to regional balance and stability in South Asia, its strategic partnership with the US acts moderately as a force multiplier. So, for Pakistan being a major stakeholder in the regional affairs, prudence dictates to cultivate and enhance its strategic relationship with its time tested friend China as well with Russia. The current paper will attempt to access the imperative factors bringing China, Russia and Pakistan closer to form a strategic triangle. It will explore the political, geo-economic and geo-strategic areas of convergence for greater cooperation between this emerging triangle. What are prospects and challenges in the way of development of a strategic triangle between China- Russia and Pakistan that is emerging as a response to a direct threat from Indo-US strategic partnership to gain a hold over regional affairs?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

16248. Decentralization and Social Development: A Study of Local Government System of Pakistan

Author:: Shoukat Ali and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Decentralization is very important dimension of the modern political system because it applies the core of democracy through local government system (LGS). Every country struggles for social development that includes the standard life of the citizens which is only possible through better delivery system of social services by an efficient local government system. The major concern of the current research is to measure the relationship between “Decentralization” and “Social Development”. The current study is quantitative and descriptive in nature which is based on explanatory research design. The data are gathered through primary and secondary sources. The sample size of primary strand of study consists of 1000 respondents which were selected from the six sampled universities of the Punjab (Pakistan). The questionnaire was employed by the researchers to collect the primary data that are analyzed later by statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). The results of the study found a strong relationship between decentralization and social development. The value of R-Square is .468 that indicates all the included sub- indicators of independent variable have strong and positive relationship with dependent variable.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16249. Is Corruption Detrimental for Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis of Selected South Asian Economies

Author:: Jahanzed Khan, Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq, Kashif Akram, and Muhammad Sharif Abbasi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The debate regarding the influence of corruption on economic growth is increasing. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of corruption on economic growth of developing South Asian Economies between 2002-2017 period. The study uses fixed effects, random effects and robust least square estimators for the empirical estimation. The outcomes show that in developing South Asian countries corruption is working like grease and enhancing the economic growth. Nevertheless, the study based on the theoretical and empirical literature recommends these countries to formulate policies to lower corruption as it harms the institutional quality, adversely affects the investment decisions of the firms, system of meritocracy, and is considered globally as a moral decay of the society. These all in turn, in the long run adversely affects the economic growth.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Economic Growth, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

16250. Afghan Women Education: Bottlenecks & Future

Author:: Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan is a country with strong cultural norms and a male-dominated society, comprising 49% of women population. The plight of Afghan women is embedded in long history of the country. Decades old war has led 90% of Afghan women without education (aged 25). In war- torn countries around the world, thousands of women are deprived of education. The displacement and the predominance of norms or ideologies dampen the very idea of education for women. Most of the schools are far enough and the children, predominately the girls, have no easy access there. Girls do stay at home following the gender norms. However in post 2001, there have been significant developments regarding female education and their participation in public life. The most important contribution was the adoption of National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan (NAPWA1), 10 years strategic framework (2010-18). The paper argues that the girls‘ education in Afghanistan requires to be looked through the lens of culture. It will analyze the other barriers to women education and explore the facts how they are unequally treated in terms of access to all levels of education in the country. However, there is a long way to meet the challenges regarding women education. It will conclude with the idea that it is undoubtedly true that countries can develop where there is no gender discrimination with regard to ducation politics and social and economic rebuilding. Only gender-oriented tasks can rule out inequalities in conflict-affected societies and transform them into peaceful societies of respect and equality.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

16251. String of Pearls: Politics of Ports in Indian Ocean

Author:: Khalid Manzoor Butt, Sanwal Hussain Kharl, and Khizar Abbass Bhatti
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Regional security order which is a complex combination of actors and factors is no longer associated exclusively with political and military might. Asia has experienced significant changes in its regional preponderance like economic interdependence and interconnectedness. The phenomenal economic growth of some countries is attributed to its ascendance. The Asian region has become a cauldron of global economic and geopolitical transformation. In this regard, the specter of Maritime Silk Road China with regards to Pakistan Economic Corridor and China Myanmar Economic Corridor are glaring examples enclusively in this region. They have heralded metamorphosis in the pearls of the string by providing an alternate route making Indian Ocean a hub for trans-regional connectivity through multifold alternative routes. History is witnessed for the benefits of certain alteration in the routes such the Panama Canal and Suez Canal. To find such alternation of routes in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has caused a competition between China and India which can have multiple effects.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Peace, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Asia and Indian Ocean

16252. Space Militarization Race among China-Russia and USA: Implications for South Asia

Author:: Fazal Abbas Awan and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The launch of Sputnik demarked the beginning of the space age and also the beginning of the militarization of the outer space. During the Cold War, the two strategic competitors exploited the outer space for their military purposes, which initiated an intense space race, lasted till the end of it. Due to intense competition in space, different satellites for photographic reconnaissance, surveillance, communication and intelligence were launched into the outer space and space became the area of conflict between the arch enemies. The major development in the militarization of space came under the President Reagan‘s period, when Strategic Defence Initiative was announced in 1983. This was the first step towards weaponizing the common heritage of the human being. The power trends in the militarization of outer space have also shown its implication on security of South Asia. China, under the consideration of security dilemma, has contributed its part in the militarization of space. As a result, India in collaboration with U.S is also crawling towards developing its space power, which has serious implications on the security of Pakistan. Therefore, the strategic competition among nations has resulted into their massive investment in the developing their space assets for military purposes and brought a paradigm shift in it. This research paper analyzes that space has become a fourth medium of warfare. The new plans from the major powers to utilize the outer space to dominate and to create their hegemony in the outer space will deteriorate the fragile peace in South Asia, as well as endanger the peace of the world. The design of present research is exploratory and for more empirical analysis, study also based on philosophical assumptions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Space, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16253. Institutional Failure: A Challenge to Good Governance in Pakistan

Author:: Marium Kamal and Sarfraz Batool
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Good governance is a desirable process as well as end-result of participatory democracy. For the last three decades „good governance‟ is more frequently used in the studies of political science because it is considered that good governance is a key indicat to judge the conducting of public institutions (that how efficiently and effectively they manage public recourses and administer public affairs). The existing literature on this subject matter identifies that good governance leads to sustainable development. According to international financial institution e.g. World Bank, lack of good governance in the third world countries is the main cause of their underdevelopment. Pakistan (one of third world countries) is a federation with diversified ethno-linguistic identities and since its emergence as an independent state; it has been facing the governance related issues seriously. This conceptual and analytical study aims to explain that how the failure and dysfunctionality of public institutions itself disrupt the process of good governance in Pakistan.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Democracy, Institutions, and State Building
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16254. Indo- US Strategic Objectives in Afghanistan: Security Calculus of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammed Tayyab Zia
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Washington and New Delhi have converged interests in Afghanistan. US aspires a greater Indian role in Afghanistan in the wake of its withdrawal from Afghanistan and India, in order to pose itself an international power, seeks in Afghanistan a deeper involvement. Although both of the states, India and the US, have devised a commonality of interests since 9/11, yet since the current US Administration bilateral ties have been intensified to the extent where Pakistan have severe implications. US President Trump‟s verdict of regionalization of Afghan issue has implied concerns for Islamabad. Pakistani authorities relate the terrorist activities in the country, particularly insurgency in Baluchistan with the role of various powers‟ role in Afghanistan. Strategic and security related objectives and concerns would be discussed in this article.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16255. Theory of Separation of Power: Balancing the Civil- Military Relations in Pakistan 2013-2018

Author:: Zahid Mahmood and Muhammad Iqbal Chawla
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: While broadly speaking the framework of separation of power is not fully executed which has caused institutional tangle in the history of Pakistan, however, the main objective of this research paper is to re-investigate the relationship between the civil and military leadership in the period 2013-2018. The elemental premise of this article is that the civilian and military leadership has generally squabbled during the civilian rule. This paper contends that this wrangle has left a majority of people of Pakistan with undelivered promises and their woes have generally multiplied. Generally speaking, perception abounds that form over substance approach proliferates in the present democratic set-up. There is an impression that the military schemes surreptitiously to destabilize the civil governments if the latter does not play to the whims of the former. The relations between the two power-centres embittered during the period 2013-2018 and it is generally believed that such tensions led to events like the dharna (sit – in) by the PTI/PAT, Tehreek-i-Labbayak protests/sit-ins and the disputed election results of 2018. Right or wrong, but there is an impression that military has generally tried to transgress its limits and meddled in the affairs of the civil administration in order to punish the ‘corrupt civilians’ for their corrupt practices. The relationship of civilian and military leadership in this article discusses specifically the instances which created tussles between both the leadership during the 2013-2018 periods. Again, the civilian leadership is facing the charges of corruption and since the matter is sub- judice, this paper constraints from considering these politicians corrupt or innocent but the main argument of the paper is that whether it is direct or indirect military interference the main allegation against the politicians is corruption. Therefore, this paper will try to find the answer to the following queries: what is the conduct of the civil governments how the civilians irritate the military and other institutions why the military takes interest into the civilian matters and why military needs to policing the civil governments and what factors caused the downfall of Mian Nawaz Sharif government. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that the theory of separation of power is not fully implemented in Pakistan which has been causing institutional clash and powerful institutions overpower the weaker and in case of Pakistan’s parliament is the weakest institution. However, this paper will like to recommend to go for the basics of democracy ‘Separation of power’ to ensure continuation and consolidation of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Political Power Sharing, Military Government, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16256. Religious Tourism and Peace Building: Kartarpur Corridor as a Peace Symbol in India-Pakistan Conflict and Inter-Faith Harmony

Author:: Asma Qadir Hasan and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Sri Kartarpur Sahib is one of the most sacred religious sites for over twenty-seven million followers of Sikh religion around the world. This religious site known as gurdwara became a part of the premises of the state of Pakistan according to the partition plan in 1947. Sikh pilgrims desiring to visit this sacred place have always found it difficult due to the tensions between the two states of India and Pakistan. Finally, in August 2018, the newly elected Pakistani government under premiership of Mr. Imran Khan announced its intention to build a connecting corridor from Dera Baba Nanak in India to Kartarpur Sahib for the Sikh pilgrims. While it was generally considered a highly positive gesture towards building peace in the region, there was some negative response from the Indian side in particular. This paper discusses brief history of Kartarpur Sahib, the implications of the decision of constructing corridor by the Pakistan government and its importance in building peace between the two states and creating inter-faith harmony within Pakistan. An exploratory, historical and descriptive method has been applied. Besides consulting books and newspaper reports on this issue, two interviews were conducted to analyze contemporary situation. The results show that the move by the Pakistani government can very well be considered a way forward in peace building process and hurdles in implementation of a peace-oriented gesture need to be removed to promote inter-faith and inter-state harmony.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Religion, Bilateral Relations, Tourism, Conflict, Peace, and Symbolism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Asia

16257. Politics of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-1967)

Author:: Javid Raza Naseem and Abdul Basit Mujahid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Political ideology of Nawab of Kalabagh Malik Amir Muhammad Khan (1910-67) was based on the perception of a highly educated but conservative feudal. He advocated status quo in almost all the matters including foreign relations. He advised Ayub Khan not to switch over to China because it would antagonise U.S.A. He was not so optimist about the solution of Kashmir issue. His pragmatic approach favoured the peaceful method of negotiation instead of confrontation. General perception portrays him as a typical landlord who was averse to education and freedom of press. Evidences from history reveal that there is a partial truth in it. He liked a responsible press which should not be left unbridled. Bengalis of East Pakistan made the bigger chunk of the total population of Pakistan. He, as a non-Bengali of West Pakistan, was apprehensive of their strength in numbers. Anti-One Unit politicians were secessionists in the eyes of Nawab so were dealt severely. He treated his political rivals according to their strength and ambitions. He was suspicious of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto because he (Bhutto) was too ambitious to be trusted. He allegedly victimized Chaudhri Zahoor Elahi because Chaudhri had desired to replace him. Mawlana A. Sattar Niazi, Habibullah Paracha and Pir of Makhad Sharif used to challenge his supremacy in his native area so Nawab had to deal them harshly. It can be derived that his political outlook reflected the mindset of a typical feudal lord.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Political Activism, Elections, Leadership, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16258. Transitionary Aspects and Population Dynamics in Rural Punjab: Demographic and Social Dimensions

Author:: Ayesha Farooq
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper discusses the socio-demographics of a village in Punjab named „Mohla‟. Socio- demographic variables include description of age distribution, sex composition, family structure, castes and marital statuses of the people. Description of respondents‟ attributes such as educational and occupational statuses are also inclusive of this study. The researchers used quantitative approach and data collection was done through probability survey to ensure objectivity and reliability of the results. Household Enumeration Forms were used to collect the information regarding age, sex, households and castes. On the other hand, interview schedule was developed to gather information from the respondents. Decade-wise sources of water supply and domestic material possessions are also analyzed. These time series data are indicative of the development that has taken place over the fifty years, this is expected to have influence on the socio- structural changes in the rural community.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Population, Inequality, and Caste
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16259. War on Terror: Repercussions for Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Shamshad, Amjad Abbas Khan, and Muhammad Hassan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The US-Taliban peace agreement has rekindled hopes for peace in Afghanistan. After fighting for almost two decades, the US has agreed to enter into a peace deal with its one time worst enemy i.e. Taliban. Pakistan has been a facilitator in bringing a peace deal to Afghanistan. Its role has been well recognised by both US and Taliban. Pakistan has long been associated with this issue; first as US partner in the war against Taliban and now as a facilitator to bring US and Taliban to a peace deal. It seems quite pertinent to re-evaluate Pakistan„s role in war against terrorism and its repercussions for Pakistan. The present research has explored the effects that Pakistan has faced after becoming the partner of war on terror initiated by the then American President George Walker Bush in 2001 soon after the incident of 9/11. It has explained how this participation of Pakistan has caused a colossal damage to the social, economic, religious and political domains of Pakistan and how the partnership has tarnished the image of Pakistan in the comity of nations. Additionally, impact of war on terror has been judged through examining the current status of internal and external security threats, soaring poverty, restrained development policies, increased hatred against the Americans and national disintegration. The methods of describing the facts and figures in the existing body of knowledge i.e published books, research articles, newspapers and published theses and then comparing and analysing them on the basis of personal opinion and other data, have been used to conclude the topic.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Taliban, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16260. Creation of New Provinces: It’s Socio-Political Implication for Pakistan

Author:: Chanzeb Awan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The existing political and administrative structure of Pakistan was inherited from British Empire which was crafted keeping in view the population and area of the entire subcontinent; and fundamentally constituted with an objective of retaining foreign control and promote imperialistic interests. Thus demand/ voices for new provinces have sound historic roots and vivid genesis emanating from ethnic and demographic makeup of Pakistan. Successive governments tried to put the country on a smooth track of development but could not achieve political and economic stability. Domination of few ethnic groups, sense of alienation, lack of justice, corruption, un-equitable allocation of development funds and unwieldy federating units in terms of population and area have been the intrinsic factors giving periodic impetus to the demands of new provinces in Pakistan. Each province has its peculiar dynamics; therefore, its historic, demographic and socio-political perspectives have been emphasized in the article to establish linkages with the genesis of demands for creating new provinces. Commonly debated issues are highlighted to explore as to why there is a requirement of creating new provinces in Pakistan. National concerns are also outlined to signify that disparity and discrimination driven movement may not be termed as linguistic or ethnic otherwise anti state notions may get stimulated. Towards the end, socio political implications have been analyzed and few recommendations have been made to address the issue of creating new provinces in Pakistan.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, National & provincial initiatives, and Political System
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16261. BRI & CPEC: Strategic & Economic Depth for Pakistan

Author:: Hafeez Ullah Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: CPEC project (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) being the flagship project of Belt & Road Initiative initially witnessed a planned investment of $ 46.6 billion which Beijing intitated and now it is extended to $62 billion and would be completed in the next few years. CPEC is not only aimed at connecting Kashgar to Gwadar but it is also considered to be the Zipper of Central Asia with South Asia, Moscow and Beijing with the Middle East and Africa. CPEC is specifically envisioned beneficial for economic security for Pakistan in a crucial time when Pakistan is isolated and badly damaged by the War on Terror since September 2001. Islamabad and Beijing have developed strong ties despite their ideological differences. This research work sheds light on the economic cooperation between the two neighboring states i.e. China and Pakistan in the context of Beijing's huge investment in Pakistan. The study analyzes CPEC from political, economic, and social perspectives. The study reveals that CPEC is the venture of economic and strategic depth for Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16262. Indian Constitutional Rearrangements in Jammu & Kashmir and the Responses of Kashmiri Diaspora

Author:: Lubna Haroon and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the aftermath of August 5, 2019, almost the entire population of Indian-held Jammu & Kashmir was placed under stark lockdown with pro-freedom and mainstream politicians arrested. This was to prevent any outbreak in response to the revocation of region‟s special status. There were only two indigenous constituencies left for campaign and raising voices; „Pakistani-administered‟ J&K and Kashmiri diaspora. The diaspora‟s feeling of being backstabbed created a sense of dispossession and alienation. Kashmiri diaspora across the globe mobilised on various fronts ranging from diplomatic, social, political, academic, and media. Though they managed to highlight the Kashmir conflict internationally, but they could not make some tangible impact as India‟s constitutional re-arrangements and the human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir continued unabated.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Diaspora, Social Movement, Constitution, and Protests
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16263. Analytical Review of Pak-China Strategic Cooperation 1950-2017

Author:: Muhammad Azhar Naeem and Abdul Majid
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study is aimed to provide analytical review of Pak-China strategic cooperation starting from 1950 to 2017. Pakistan started to establish her strategic relations with the outer world soon after her independence in 1947 in order to maintain balance of power in the region. Bilateral ties remained very encouraging from the beginning of Pak-China relations. However, bilateral ties touch its heights in the decade of 1960s. After 1960s, bilateral relation turned to diplomatic relations because of changing world scenario i.e. cold war, terrorism, One China Policy and change of world order. Still China helped Pakistan financially, technologically and assisted in developing nuclear program. In 21st century, relations became stronger of and both the nations started helping each other to materialize their goals in diverse fields. One such example is the implementation of (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) CPEC which is expected to change the fate of both the countries in future.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

16264. China Pakistan Ties: Challenges and Implications for the region (2013-2018)

Author:: Rabia Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China’s active role in South Asia is based on a “win-win” approach which is also beneficial for the economic progress of the regional states. China’s rapid economic integration represents its intention to maintain peace and stability in its vicinity. To hold its presence in the Indian Ocean region it is developing strong economic and trade ties with South Asian states. This region has become a center of attention where the interests of major powers China, India and the United States intersects. The joint venture of “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” strategically holds huge significance for China, Pakistan and major powers like India and the US being rival to China. This corridor will enhance the economic conditions of not only China and Pakistan but also the other developing and the landlocked states of CARs and Afghanistan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

16265. Dynamics of Political Discussion of Voters in 2013 General Election in Pakistan

Author:: Rana Umair Nadeem and Hafiz Ejaz Bashir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Mass Media is among the major source to disseminate the political information in South Asia. Political news informs citizens regarding policies of political parties. Public and voters rely on political news on television, radio, social media and newspapers to know about the political world. This study examines the effects of mass media on the voters‟ participation in political discussion in general election 2013 in Pakistan. This study explores the process by which voters‟ behavior regarding political discussion is affected by political news exposure. For data collection, cross sectional survey method was used. The survey participants / respondents are primary school teacher voters in Lahore Division. Multistage purposive sampling technique was used for taking the sample of voters.
Topic:: Elections, Media, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16266. CPEC and Re-Orientation of China-Pakistan Relations

Author:: Muhammad Ikram
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The ̳One Belt One Road‘ term refers to ̳The Maritime Silk Road and the Silk Road Economic Belt. This mega initiative was announced by Chinese president, Xi Jiping, in September 2013 during his official state visit to Kazakhstan. Pakistan is most important pillar of this Chinese initiative. Under the One Belt One Road framework, several corridors will be built in future. Whereas, with the development of OBOR, regional economies will boost up to $2.5 trillion and more than 4.4 billion population will get benefits across 65 countries. The Silk Road Economic Belt will link China, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe through the Persian Gulf and South East Asia and Indian Ocean. However, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be built to connect the Pakistan's Port Gawadar with Chinese city of Kashagar in autonomous province Xinjiang. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is a game changer for the region and particularly for China and Pakistan, through the development of roads, railways, oil and gas pipe lines. Thus, the project brings wealth and prosperity across the region, particularly in Pakistan. But on the other hand, Pakistan is facing serious internal and external threats from terrorism and extremism since 2001. This work is an attempt to enlighten the prospects of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and constraints in the way of this mega projects.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Peace, Economic Development, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

16267. Hindutva in India: Rise of Bigotry against Muslims

Author:: Inayat Kalim, Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi, and Areeja Syed
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The preface of the Indian Constitution declares India a sovereign, democratic, republic, and socialist state. Later on through the 42nd amendment, socialist and secular terms were incorporated into the constitution. Indian social order is known to be a multi-cultural and multi- religious society on account of an assortment of castes, religions, and cultures. Within all that disparities, Muslims form the main minority in the state. However, a clear-cut pluralistic discrepancy between the theory and practice of the Indian constitution is obvious. Indian Muslims are deprived of cultural, religious, and political rights due to the escalation of Hindutva policies throughout the Modi reign. The continued Kashmir dispute and the recent Pulwama attack intensified India- Pakistan animosity and the root cause seems to be the rise of Hindutva in India. For that reason, the authors delve into the matter and strive to present a descriptive analysis on the rise of Hindutva in India and the illicit silence of the international actors on this grave Indian fanaticism.
Topic:: Civil Society, Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, and Secularism
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16268. India-Pakistan Relations: Can Guru Nanak be a Factor of Peace?

Author:: Tawseef Ahmad Mir
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Guru Nanak Dev was born in November, 1469. He grew up to be the founder of Sikhism along with other nine Gurus. It soon emerged as an independent faith, and instantly won many followers to its fold. Therefore, the purpose of this research paper will be to delve into Guru Nanak’s role and appreciating his importance as far as bridging the wide gulf of enmity particularly between India and Pakistan and in the wider South Asia region in general. As all his life he focussed on fostering amity, peace, brotherhood, tolerance and harmony among people of various backgrounds, his teachings therefore promise to have all the necessary ingredients of peace which is currently wanting in the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Asia

16269. The Rise of Extremism in Pakistan: International Dynamics

Author:: Nasreen Akhter and Musarat Amin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Extremism in Pakistan has been the outcome of so-called Jihadists who wanted continuous recruitment for the Afghan-Soviet war(1979-89) and madrassas were settled with primary aim of propagation of so-called Jihad. Pakistan, being an Islamic Republic had already fertile ground for the promotion of Islamic ideology but this unfortunately was misconstrued by U.S. funded war which later turned Pakistani society into an abyss of extremism. Wave of sectarianism, drugs and political instability fomented extremism in the society. Internal strife coupled with international dynamics, badly distorted Pakistan‟s image internationally. That is the reason terrorists enjoyed support of masses despite military operations against them. This paper highlights that how the extremism rooted into Pakistani society caused wave of extremism, terrorism and hate. Pakistan faced serious challenges to economy and internal stability. Pakistan waged counterterrorism operations under the National Action Plan (NAP) but there is a need of counter-extremism policy that will normalize the society and regain its potential to excel.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, Discrimination, Conflict, Ideology, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16270. Provincial Pride, Public Outcry: The Creation of the Lahore High Court and Judicial Development in South Asia

Author:: Yaqoob Khan Bangash
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The creation of a modern judicial system is one of the most enduring legacy of British rule in South Asia, especially the Punjab. In the Punjab, the judicial system not only ingrained itself quickly but the province soon became the most litigious in India. Despite being often labelled as the ‘loyal’ province, progress in its higher judiciary was slow. Even though the Punjab got a Chief Court in 1866, it was only after decades of representations by the judges of the Punjab Chief Court, the Government of the Punjab and finally the Government of India, that Whitehall granted a High Court to the province in 1919, much later than other comparable provinces. The reasons behind such a delay, the long-drawn process, and the final upgradation of the Punjab Chief Court as the Lahore High Court, merit study as they shed critical light on the pattern of governance, development of public interest, and the ultimate role and impact of the judiciary in the Punjab.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Governance, Legal Theory, Local, State Building, Judiciary, and Community
Political Geography:: India and Asia

16271. Inquiry on the Effect of Federalism in Patterns of Internal Migration in Nepal: Study from Province 1

Author:: Dipesh Karki and Riya Regmi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Nepal became federal state in 2008 with the aspiration of inclusive-development and reduction of economic disparity between rural and urban parts of the country. However using qualitative approach, paper finds that after federalism, especially with the contentious choice of provincial capital and subsequent tax increase, there has been an overall decline in business in rural towns of the province, leading to the increased displacement of the youth populace from rural town to the provincial capital. By performing in-depth interviews of 22 respondents from province 1 and carrying out thematic analysis the paper further finds that unplanned dozer development, increased corruption, and lack of improvement in the education and health sector has further contributed in internal migration. Overall the broad theme of unmet expectation emerged as the main factor that led general populace to be displaced from their roots
Topic:: Migration, Governance, State Building, and Federalism
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

16272. Paradox of Female Labor Force Participation in South Asia

Author:: Hina Mubeen, Arshad Syed Karim, and Sadaf Alam
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Worldwide, startling gender disparities exist in employment. There has been a shift in gender culture in the present era which requires both men and women to have paid jobs and share household responsibilities. South Asian region with leading economies like India, Bangladesh and Nepal, presents an interesting paradox for research. Hence, the aim of this conceptual paper is to understand the push and pull factors which influence female labor force participation in the South Asian region in purview of various social, cultural and institutional impediments to engaging into their economic role. Specifically in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the female labor force participation rates are significantly lower than the other South Asian nations, scarce conceptual as well as empirical researches have been conducted till date to analyze the underlying reasons and consequences of gender inequality or in labor force participation. The article highlights that in case of majority of the developing countries of South Asia, there are numerous complications associated with prevalent gender stereotypes within the society and the division of labor. The author argues that it fails to acknowledge women’s triple role in the society. Lack of adequate institutional framework can be one of the prime reasons of low scores for the South Asian region that restrains women to enter productive employment sectors. Discrimination against women in labor force can be costly in the course of development. If properly utilized in the labor market, with the provision of an enabling environment, this huge workforce can make significant contributions to the economic development and growth of the region. Ultimately, it would aid in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger from the world.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economic Growth, Feminism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

16273. Macroeconomic Determinents of Crime in South Asian Countries: A Panal Data Approach

Author:: Rana Hazma Gull, Kauser Perveen, and Amber Bakhsh Basit
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This research explores the economic determinants of crime in case of a panel of South Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh). To empirically determine the relationship between crime and its determinants, data for the concerned variables are collected for the period of 2003 to 2017 from different sources like World Development Indicator (WDI), National Police Survey and UNESCO. In this study, education, economic growth, population and unemployment are used as the determinants of crime. To find out the relationship Random Effect Model (REM) and Fixed Effect Model (FEM) models are constructed. After applying diagnostic test, it is found that Fixed Effect Model is appropriate. But the FEM model violates the assumptions of classical linear regression model (CLRM) because there is hertoscedasticity and autocorrelation problem in the data. To robust these problems, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model has been applied. The results of FGLS revealed that education has negative and significant impact on crime. Contrary, population, economic growth and unemployment have positive and significant impact on crime. The study recommends that government should give preference to education sector. On the other hand, government should control the population growth and unemployment rate.
Topic:: Crime, Education, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

16274. Impact of Gas Conservation on Aggregate Economy and Trade of Pakistan

Author:: Shahbaz Sharif, Muhammad Shakeel, and Qasim Saleem
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The present study assesses the gas-use based aggregate production framework to find out the co- integration among the variables and thereby estimate the error correction mechanism of the empirical models. Johansen’s based co-integration test has been applied with VECM based causality test to assess the long run and causal relationship for yearly time series data over 1980- 2014 for Pakistan. The empirical findings demonstrate a statistically significant co-integration to exist among real economic production/GDP, labor, capital and gas-use in both the models with and without exports. The findings of causality test depict long-run unidirectional relationship from labor, capital stock, gas-use and export towards the real GDP. The feedback connection between gas-use and real GDP is also found statistically significant in the short-term. The findings imply a warning for reduction of gas-use via energy conservation policies which may reduce exportable production. The reduction of gas use will downward curtail the economic growth, directly and via exports’ multiplier effect upon GDP, indirectly. Therefore, development of new energy technologies has been suggested to balance the supply-demand gap and thereby promisingly expanding the export-led sector for triggering the Economic output/GDP growth and sustainability of energy resources in the country.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Gas, Conservation, Renewable Energy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

16275. Burundi’s Institutional Landscape after the 2020 Elections

Author:: Stef Vandeginste
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Burundi’s forthcoming elections mark the next stage in the implementation of the Constitution of 7 June 2018. Four key institutional innovations, situated mostly at the level of the executive branch, will take effect after the elections. Contrary to the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000 and the Constitution of 18 March 2005, the 2018 Constitution no longer requires the establishment of a coalition government. While re- introducing a prime minister, the new constitution also enhances presidential powers. Furthermore, the 2018 Constitution has an immediate and longer-term impact on the use of ethnic quotas
Topic:: Elections, Constitution, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

16276. Context matters – Why Africa should Tailor its own Measures to fight COVID-19

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: African governments have been faster than most of their European counterparts in imposing measures to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak despite dealing with numerous other challenges. However, context matters, and for Africa, the political and socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown measures may cause more havoc than the actual virus. This brief identifies political, economic and social risks related to coronavirus responses in Africa and emphasises the disproportionate burden carried by women. It argues that localised measures, which include dialogue, transparency and flexibility, may be the only realistic way forward, while underlining the need for wealthier states to provide generous aid packages, debt cancellations and continued investments, in spite of current challenges, in order for Africa to pull through yet another challenge.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

16277. The End of ‘Business as Usual’? COVID-19 and the European Green Deal

Author:: Francesca Colli
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a clear and drastic effect on our daily lives and political priorities. But what implications does it have for the EU’s climate action and the Von der Leyen Commission’s flagship policy, the European Green Deal? The crisis may be a ‘make or break’ moment for the EU to act on climate change through its recovery plan.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Green Technology, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe

16278. COVID-19 and the Climate – Energy Nexus

Author:: Mathieu Blondeel
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Analysing the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the climate-energy nexus, raises three important questions. First, what does this global health and economic crisis mean for the future of fossil fuels, particularly oil? Because of the drop in economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions have plummeted, but how can we ensure a structural decline that is aligned with the Paris Agreement? Third, how can we embed the ideas of a “just transition” within the broader post- pandemic “green recovery”? This policy brief offers a glimpse of the direction away from fossil fuels that our global energy system must take to govern the post- pandemic world
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16279. Going the Extra Mile for the 2020 Elections in the Central African Republic

Author:: Peter Knoope, Stephen Buchanan-Clarke, and Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The upcoming 2020 presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR) has the potential to derail the implementation of the 2019 Khartoum Peace Agreement and bring about a return to widespread conflict. This calls for immediate and collaborative action to be taken by those national, regional, and international actors working for peace in the country. This policy brief aims to outline some of the key risks posed by the upcoming elections and provide recommendations to mitigate their potential to negatively impact on ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Peace, Voting, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

16280. Remolding China’s ‘Empty’ Belt and Road Initiative: An Opportunity for the EU

Author:: Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been subject to ample scrutiny since its inception in 2013. Practical results could be said to be severely lacking in contrast to the project’s ambitious plans. Chinese engagement abroad has irrefutably intensified since Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, but whether this can be classified as the fruits of BRI remains unclear. China, in fact, is developing BRI on the go. That gives the EU an opportunity to engage with BRI and remold it into a more desirable form. Because China increasingly sees Europe as BRI’s “final destination”, the EU has a lot more leverage than it commonly assumes.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, European Union, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

16281. No Pain, No Gain: Taking PESCO to the Gym

Author:: Tania Latici
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: It is fair to assume that at least one out of three readers of this paper have at some point in their life accepted to join a group of friends to do regular sporting activities together. While this idea sounds great in principle (we become fitter while building our friendships), when the day comes, only a few of those who committed actually show up. Excuses abound: more important commitments; too busy; jealous friends who were not invited in the first place. This is why a much more effective method of keeping commitments is through peer- pressure: having a designated buddy keeping tabs on you, making sure you show up and help you do the work. Vice versa, you are responsible for helping and motivating another friend, until the square is circled. So, what does Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) have to do with becoming fitter? Everything.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16282. Rethinking EU institutions’ rules of procedure after COVID-19

Author:: Benjamin Bodson
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Up to now, little attention has been paid to how EU institutions adapted their internal functioning to cope with the confinement measures. This policy brief offers an early overview and assessment of these internal arrangements. Their analysis is of utmost importance for democratic reasons, notably accountability. From ensuring security and publicity of virtual meetings to finding valid methods for adopting acts, challenges posed to EU institutions were enormous. Five out of the seven institutions were not ready for operational changes. This paper shows that although a great variety of rules do exist, many need to be adapted, modernised or created. The upcoming Conference on the Future of Europe might constitute a timely opportunity to this end.
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16283. What can the EU expect from the new Belgian government?

Author:: Benjamin Bodson
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The political agreement 2 that made the new Belgian federal government possible mentions Europe nearly 130 times in an intentional emphasis. The fact that new prime minister Alexander de Croo presented his government’s programme in the European Parliament – the very heart of the Brussels universe – constitutes an almost subliminal message in line with the content of the agreement: his government desires to be resolutely pro-European.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Leadership, Regionalism, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

16284. A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration

Author:: Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Anthony Dworkin, Ellie Geranmayeh, Mark Leonard, Theodore Murphy, Janka Oertel, Nicu Popescu, and Tara Varma
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The election of Joe Biden marks a new era in the transatlantic relationship – in upholding the liberal international order, America wants a Europe that is a sovereign partner, not a helpless dependent. Washington will look to the EU to support the US lead in the Indo-Pacific vis-à-vis China, while also wanting Europe to take more responsibility for security and stability in eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. In exchange, the EU and member states should propose a new transatlantic bargain that encompasses cross-cutting global issues such as health policy, trade, security, climate change, and the defence of democracy. The Trump years galvanised Europeans’ efforts to strengthen their own sovereignty; they now need to agree concrete offers they can make to the new administration. This will require nothing less than a fundamental change in mindset for Europeans, who will have to suppress any hankerings for the old order and decide how they will help build it anew.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, International Cooperation, European Union, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

16285. Promoting European strategic sovereignty in Asia

Author:: Janka Oertel and Andrew Small
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The continuing rise of China and the onset of the pandemic have made asserting European strategic sovereignty in Asia ever more complex and difficult. Both developments mean that economics, security, and technology issues in Asia are becoming ever more intertwined. On the one hand this leaves Europe exposed – its dependencies on China have grown, and the security framework that has enabled Europe’s burgeoning economic ties with the wider region is under strain. Yet as other Asian powers, and the United States under the new Biden administration, increasingly assess the emerging strategic competition through a geo-economic prism, Europe’s leverage and its opportunities for partnership have also grown. Europe should upgrade its security activities, and seize the moment to push multilateral institutions up the agenda. But it will be Europe’s connectivity agenda that provides the golden thread running through its foreign policy and its environmental, industrial, trade, development, values, and security objectives in the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

16286. Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood

Author:: Julien Barnes-Dacey and Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Events in the Middle East and North Africa strongly affect Europe, but other global and regional powers are determining the course of events in the region. Europe’s interests include migration, counter-terrorism, and open trade routes, but its larger goal should be to promote greater stability in the region. To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform. The EU should work towards greater European unity in the region, including through the use of flexible and open coalitions of member states.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, Marginalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

16287. Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the eastern neighbourhood

Author:: Gustav Gressel
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Since 2002, the European Union’s goal in its eastern neighbourhood has been to ensure that it is surrounded by democracies that uphold the rule of law while maintaining market economies and open societies. This goal remains relevant and important: as recent events in Belarus show, authoritarian stability in the neighbourhood has always proved to be an illusion. Russia has used political, economic, and military means to contest the EU’s support for the transition to democracy and market economies in eastern Europe. The EU’s tendency to shy away from security issues has helped make covert operations and military threats Russia’s tools of choice in the region. To counter these efforts, the EU’s neighbourhood policy should focus on the rule of law and judicial reforms, media regulation and information warfare, security sector reform and capacity building, and cyber and energy security. The EU should also add a military and security dimension to its assistance in reforming Eastern Partnership countries’ defence sectors and armed forces.
Topic:: International Relations, Authoritarianism, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

16288. Sovereign Europe, dangerous world: Five agendas to protect Europe’s capacity to act

Author:: Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: In the last year, Europe has begun to recognise the need to defend its sovereignty in a threatening world. Covid-19 has revealed and exacerbated many of Europe’s existing vulnerabilities; the European Union and its member states remain unable to act autonomously in key areas of national life. Based on ECFR research, we propose five sovereignty agendas in health, economic, digital, climate change, and traditional security, all designed to promote a more sovereign Europe on that issues that matter most to Europeans. Europe must not relinquish its rules-based approach or lapse into protectionism. But, to protect the open, multilateral order they so cherish, Europeans need to promote new rules permitting them to take action against countries that undermine the international system. The EU’s €750 billion pandemic recovery fund offers the chance to underwrite this ambition – but, ultimately, Europeans need to master the art of acting as a geopolitical force in the world.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Economics, Health, Sovereignty, European Union, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

16289. Climate superpowers: How the EU and China can compete and cooperate for a green future

Author:: Janka Oertel, Jennifer Tollmann, and Byford Tsang
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The broad notion of ‘partnership’ no longer reflects the true complexity of the EU’s interactions with China in tackling the most important global challenge. Instead, as climate action becomes more material to economic interests, Europe and China will both compete and cooperate with each other, against the backdrop of an overarching systemic rivalry. To successfully manage this new reality, the EU and its member states will have to clearly define benchmarks and red lines for credible climate action, to set the framework for cooperation. At the same time, they will need to invest in future competitiveness, especially in the green technology needed to compete for markets, standards, and influence in a low-carbon world.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, and Interstate Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Europe

16290. Viral vulnerability: How the pandemic is making democracy sick in the Western Balkans

Author:: Beáta Huszka and Tania Lessenska
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The covid-19 crisis has accentuated Western Balkans countries’ pre-existing vulnerabilities related to the rule of law and democratic governance – but has not brought about a new political era in the region. Western Balkans governments have often taken selective and arbitrary approaches to applying restrictions in response to the pandemic, sometimes using these measures to silence their critics and opponents. The measures could have the most severe long-term effects of any aspect of the crisis response. They exacerbate the greatest threat to the accession process in the Western Balkans: backsliding on the EU’s political criteria. Yet the EU seems less inclined than it once was to allow Western Balkans governments to get away with democratic backsliding just because they align themselves with the bloc geopolitically.
Topic:: Government, European Union, Democracy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

16291. The end of Oslo: A new European strategy on Israel-Palestine

Author:: Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: European policy this year saw significant wins in Israel-Palestine: helping to block Donald Trump’s ‘peace’ plan and to avoid Israel’s de jure annexation of Palestinian territory. But Europe is failing to fundamentally challenge the worsening situation on the ground, which is storing up future instability and threatens European interests. The Oslo process is exhausted and a viable two-state outcome is slipping out of reach. Instead of its rigid focus on the Oslo peace process, the EU should craft a new peacemaking paradigm based on equality and deoccupation. The absence of a two-state solution will mean Israel ensuring equal rights for Palestinians in one democratic state. The EU should also deter Israeli settlement activity and push Palestinians towards political renewal as prerequisites for a future resolution of the conflict.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Inequality, Oslo Accords, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16292. Gulf of difference: How Europe can get the Gulf monarchies to pursue peace with Iran

Author:: Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The Gulf monarchies face a core dilemma: advancing their security interests through deterrence or through promoting a new diplomatic process. The arrival of the Biden administration in Washington, and the perception of US disengagement from the region, offers an opportunity for Europeans to help de-escalate tensions between GCC states and Iran. The European interest lies in supporting a return to the Iranian nuclear deal and a regional dialogue between the Gulf monarchies and Iran, an approach that is more likely to promote lasting stability. Europeans can support this process by strengthening their own regional security posture and confronting head-on the geopolitical tensions at the heart of regional rivalries.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

16293. The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of covid

Author:: Claire Busse, Rafael Loss, Jana Puglierin, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments. Fortunately, covid-19 hit at a time when cohesion in the EU was the strongest it has been in a decade. The EU has ultimately responded effectively to the crisis, agreeing a recovery fund for the hardest-hit member states. However, countries in the north could become frustrated by having to support others, while the south faces economic stagnation, and the rule of law is still shaky in parts of central Europe. The EU should offer more support to struggling members, conditional on structural reforms and respect for the rule of law. All member states have a stake in ensuring European cohesion – not least because of the international challenges facing Europe.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16294. Russia’s relative resilience: Why Putin feels vindicated by the pandemic

Author:: Kadri Liik
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Covid-19 has damaged Russia’s economy and President Vladimir Putin’s political agenda. Yet the crisis has given the Kremlin some grim self-confidence that things might be bad, but others have it worse. Putin sees most countries’ behaviour in the pandemic as having validated his philosophy of international affairs: liberalism and universal rules are in retreat, while state-centrism is advancing. The pandemic has exposed many of Russia’s weaknesses, ranging from its healthcare system to a general lack of trust in state institutions. But none of these problems implies the imminent collapse of the country’s physical or political infrastructure. The fact that Russia’s economy is projected to contract less than those of most Western countries makes the Kremlin feel vindicated in its economic policies. Russia’s experience of covid-19 has fostered a ‘wait and see’ attitude towards foreign policy in the Kremlin – an expectation that time is on the country’s side.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

16295. Together or Alone? The need for increased Albanian-Dutch cooperation to fight transnational organised crime

Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:: In recent years the Netherlands has voiced security-related concerns about the involvement of Albanian nationals in organised crime in the Netherlands. These concerns culminated in a request to the European Commission to suspend visa-free travel for Albanians to the EU. This policy brief argues that the current Dutch approach does not provide the best means to address issues of organised crime, such as drug trafficking, related to Albanian nationals. It identifies several inadequacies in the crime data used to substantiate the Dutch position and the way Dutch authorities publicly communicate them. It posits that greater bilateral cooperation beyond the EU accession framework could improve efforts to fight transnational organised crime effectively. The opening of EU accession negotiations with Albania may offer a window of opportunity to formulate a constructive agenda of cooperation beyond the formal EU enlargement framework.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Organized Crime, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:: Europe, Albania, and Netherlands

16296. EU membership of the Western Balkan states in times of crisis: From a strategic choice to protracted inertia

Author:: Marko Stojić
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our associate research fellow Marko Stojić in his latest policy paper deals with the Western Balkans' European perspective and the COVID-19 crises' impact on the countries' journey towards EU membership.
Topic:: Democratization, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

16297. Behavioural Science for the Environment

Author:: Milan Urbaník
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: To effectively address climate change, both structural and behavioural policies are needed. To formulate effective and efficient behavioural policies, the government should establish Behavioural Policy Team. The agency of the team should be to design policies that are conducive to facilitating behavioural changes against unsustainable behaviours, such as high energy and water consumption or polluting transportation. Furthermore, the team should test different approaches through randomization to determine the best valuefor-money policies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Behavioral Science
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

16298. Czech EU presidency: Basis for a Successful Implementation

Author:: Vít Havelka
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Czech policy makers must not resort to a partisan programme of the Czech presidency. Strong antipathy between government and opposition might create a fragile political environment for the presidency Czech priorities must be thoroughly discussed with partners in trio, and the Czech Republic should closely coordinate its intentions with Sweden in order to counterbalance French influence Space of Czech initiatives will be limited due to the current phase of the EP legislative period, and the Czechs should thus focus only on particular issues that they consider vital – single market policies, environmental policies, and innovation. The EU presidency must be used for EU membership promotion in the Czech Republic. Importantly, there should take place high-level meetings in the Czech Republic and outside of Prague.
Topic:: Environment, Government, Markets, European Union, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe and Czech Republic

16299. Cross-generational Cooperation in the Workplace

Author:: Lenka Farkačová
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Lenka Farkačová deals with the issue of development of networks of cross-generational teams of individual EU countries, which are to serve as tools to achieve the EU’s competitive advantage in the global market. Identifying and retaining employees with high potential and developing their talents for the benefit of the individual is especially important in order to be globally competitive. However, there is a situation where there are several specialized tools for identifying and developing employees, but the size of the population from which potential employees can be recruited is shrinking. What could help countries to deal with the issue of the current and future shortage of people in the labour markets? "The migration of workers1" is a simple answer from many employers (Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic, 2019). Disregarding statements like this, it is appropriate to find long-term solutions, e.g. in the form of cross-generation cooperation and partnerships teams.
Topic:: Development, Strategic Competition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe

16300. Western Balkans in 2020

Author:: Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Our researchers, Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová, analyse elections in Serbia, Croatia, Northern Macedonia and Montenegro in four policy papers and offer recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU's enlargement policy. In this report, EUROPEUM’s two researchers – Jana Juzová and Žiga Faktor – analyze each of the four elections from these perspectives in four policy papers, offering succinct dissections of the elections themselves, as well as what they portend for the future of the region and the EU’s enlargement policy. Based on their analyses, they offer policy recommendations designed to strengthen the EU enlargement policy in a tailor-made approach rather than the hitherto “one size fits all”-approach that has proven dysfunctional not only from the perspective of future enlargement, but also retrospectively during the last enlargement wave in 2004. The enlargement policy may be seen as marginalized today, yet the enlargement policy is not solely a policy of enlargement; it is a window into the state of the EU, as well as the soul of Europe itself. It is therefore my pleasure to invite interested readers to read more about the 2020 developments in the Western Balkans, offering both valuable insights about the region itself, and an opportunity to thoughtfully consider what role the EU and Europe should play in a changing world marred by instability and upheaval.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Croatia, and Montenegro

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