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1701. A New Chapter in Algeria’s Tumultuous Politics

Author:
Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The Algerian government’s recent referendum on new constitutional amendments was heralded as the start of a new political era. The referendum, symbolically held on November 1, the day Algeria’s armed struggle for independence from France commenced in 1954, was publicized under the official slogan “November 1954 Liberation; November 2020 Change”. The vote was intended to address the grievances expressed by the Hirak protest movement, which throughout 2019 staged swelling weekly protests demanding sweeping changes in the country’s political system. But the vote fell far short of the government’s expectations. Largely boycotted by Hirak supporters, voter turnout was very low (23.4 percent). Overshadowing the referendum was the news that Algeria’s president, ʿAbd al-Majid Tebboune, had been transferred several days earlier to a hospital in Germany, allegedly for “medical checkups,” but was later reported to have been infected with the COVID-19 virus. At the time of this writing, Tebboune remains in Germany. Although he has reportedly recovered from his illness, looming questions about his condition and ability to resume his duties, along with a potential power vacuum continue to overshadow Algerian politics. These events have been further compounded by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Algeria, and the government’s difficulty in responding to the crisis. Algeria’s economy has been battered by the outbreak and other factors, including plummeting oil prices, which affect a major export commodity and an important income source. All of these challenges add new features to Algeria’s tumultuous political history, and highlight the growing volatility that could further affect domestic stability.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Income Inequality, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

1702. Israel and the UAE: Old New Friends

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes economic factors involved in the recent UAE-Israel normalization accords. In August 2020, the US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In September, the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain opens the door for trade, investment and cooperation. Israel is looking for markets, investments and joint projects. The UAE is dominated by two emirates: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the main oil producer in the UAE and is thus one of the largest in the world. It has a strong interest in reorienting its economy away from oil and has invested in green technologies. Dubai has invested heavily in real estate and tourism and also wants to diversify its economy. Israel is a very suitable trading partner given its strength in hi-tech.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

1703. 2021 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Independent View

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Restoring its territorial integrity, the Republic of Azerbaijan has entered a new era. The state authorities have to carry out restructure and infrastructure building tasks in the liberated territories to provide energy, utilities, transport infrastructure, and create conditions for life and business of citizens returning to their native lands. Therefore, one of the main features of the state budget for 2021 is the creation of financial security to implement the aforementioned honorable and responsible tasks. Along with their implementation, the budget for 2021 envisages the creation of financial guarantees for further improvement of the people's welfare, sustainable economic development, and implementation of state programs.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Budget, Economy, Transportation, and Utilities
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

1704. EUROPEAN INTERESTS AND EXTERNAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OF THE EU TOWARD EGYPT

Author:
Defne Günay
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:
According to the International Panel on Climate Change, climate change will affect the rivers leading to the Mediterranean, desertification will increase, rise in sea level will affect coastal settlements, and crop productivity will decrease in the region. Therefore, climate change is an important issue for the Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU) is a frontrunner in climate change policy, committing itself to a decarbonized economy by 2050. The EU also promotes climate action in the world through its climate diplomacy. Such EU action in promoting the norm of climate action can be explained with reference to EU’s economic interests. In this paper, I analyse whether the EU serves its economic interests by promoting climate action in its neighbourhood policy towards Egypt. Based on documentary analysis, this paper argues that European companies benefitted from the market-based solutions adopted by the Kyoto Protocol in Egypt, exported renewable energy technologies to Egypt and face a level-playing field in terms of regulations promoted for them by the EU in Egypt.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Regulation, Economy, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Egypt, and Mediterranean

1705. Indonesia's Economy: Between Growth and Stability

Author:
Roland Rajah
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions. Indonesian economic policy continues to prioritise stability over growth but the adequacy of economic growth has become the bigger issue. President Joko Widodo’s commendable pro-growth efforts have so far only stabilised Indonesia’s trajectory rather than boost it. Doing better will require reforms to be calibrated to make the trade-off between growth and stability less binding while enhancing productivity.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

1706. The Belt and Road Initiative: The Sources of China’s Conduct, and India and Japan’s Responses

Author:
Hao Nan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is now more than seven years old, projecting ever-increasing influence throughout the world while stimulating growing concerns about China’s motives and behavior. This large-scale and multifaceted program benefits China, and not only economically, but in the politico-security sense. In response, India has stuck to its stance of distancing itself from the BRI while Japan has evolved past its initial rejection to selectively engage with the initiative. Tracing Chinese motives and conduct, along with the Indian and Japanese responses, back to the respective countries’ long-existing schools of strategic thought enables us to better decode current affairs and predict future dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Asia, India, and Asia

1707. Conflict and Coronavirus: How COVID-19 is Impacting Southeast Asia’s Conflicts

Author:
Jennifer Howe
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Since COVID-19 spread out of China in January 2020, it has caused unprecedented damage to the global economy and national health systems. The virus also having serious ramifications for conflicts throughout the world. This paper reviews the literature up to its time of writing in July 2020 in order to assess how the coronavirus crisis has impacted conflicts in Southeast Asia. The paper found that the pandemic has been detrimental to conflict resolution in the region—it has hampered peacebuilding efforts and contributed to rising tensions. Moreover, the outbreak has enabled extremist organizations to operate more freely and make government lockdowns and the economic downturn a part of their recruitment messaging. Conflict-affected populations are confronted by the dual impact of disease and violence—health systems have been weakened by years of conflict, violence is obstructing the delivery of aid, and forcibly displaced communities are living in unsanitary and crowded camps, incapable of handling a viral outbreak. Women in unstable settings are particularly vulnerable as gender-based violence increases, while services essential to their health and wellbeing are being forced to close. The paper concludes with policy recommendations in view of the effects the virus is having on Southeast Asian conflicts. Recommendations emphasize the importance of supporting local peacebuilders and implementing response and recovery measures that work towards a fairer post-pandemic society.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

1708. Touching the Void: Economic Collapse and Popular Protest in the Levant

Author:
Peter Bartu
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
At the end of 2019, quasi-revolutionary popular protests forced the resigna- tion of two prime ministers in Lebanon and Iraq. With these protests came the opportunity for political and economic reforms that were as wide-ranging as those called for during the 2011 Arab uprisings. The challenge was to steer the public energy of city squares into policies that would affect genuine institutional change and improve the economies of both states. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price crash have had calamitous consequences for Iraq and Lebanon’s rank and file. Lebanon faces hyperinflation, increasing food insecurity, and the collapse of its middle class. Meanwhile, Iraq’s government cannot meet its monthly payroll, has not fostered an active private sector, and has failed to create robust financial institutions—Iraq’s banking sector has been described as a “monetary dystopia.”1 Although economic prospects look bleak in the Levant, there is still a way out of this. It is time to bring in forensic auditors, apply cur- rency controls, and consider a regional approach to recovery. Those who benefit from the status quo will fiercely resist reform, but they can be circumvented by taking reform plans directly to the people by way of referendum. The future lies in going back to those marching in the squares.
Topic:
Economy, Protests, Inflation, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

1709. China Maritime Report No. 10: PLAN Force Structure Projection Concept, A Methodology for Looking Down Range

Author:
Christopher P. Carlson
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Force structure projections of an adversary’s potential order of battle are an essential input into the strategic planning process. Currently, the majority of predictions regarding China’s future naval buildup are based on a simple extrapolation of the impressive historical ship construction rate and shipyard capacity, without acknowledging that the political and economic situation in China has changed dramatically.
Topic:
Politics, Armed Forces, Navy, Economy, Maritime, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1710. Dubai Property: An Oasis for Nigeria’s Corrupt Political Elites

Author:
Matthew Page
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
For politically exposed persons (PEPs) with ill-gotten wealth, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an alluring destination for investing their gains. Although certainly not the only place to stash money, Dubai—dubbed the commercial capital of the Middle East—exercises minimal oversight and has few legal or logistical obstacles to transferring large amounts of cash or purchasing property. PEPs, defined as individuals who are or have been entrusted with a prominent public function, are at higher risk of involvement in unlawful activity due to their positions of influence and access to assets.1 In some cases, government officials and associates who succumb to the temptation become front-page news, but in many other cases, their activities go undetected or uncorroborated, despite the efforts of local authorities and intergovernmental bodies such as the Financial Action Task Force. As a result, billions of dollars are siphoned away to the detriment of both prosperous and struggling economies and societies. The case of Nigeria—home to Africa’s largest economy and the world’s seventh most populous country—offers valuable insights into this phenomenon.2 For Nigerian PEPs in particular, Dubai is an accessible oasis far away from the political drama in their capital, Abuja, or the hustle and bustle of their biggest city, Lagos. But a dearth of specific information about Nigerian PEPs’ property in Dubai has long precluded a deeper analysis of the share of illicit financial outflows from Nigeria; that is, until 2016, when the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (now known as C4ADS) acquired the data of a private database of Dubai real estate information (dubbed the “Sandcastles” data). At least 800 properties were found to have links to Nigerian PEPs or their family members, associates, and suspected proxies. With such information and continued monitoring, Nigerian and Emirati authorities and national and international actors could ramp up their scrutiny on high-end property transactions involving Nigerian elites to ensure that these purchases are not being made with pilfered public funds. The two countries could also deepen bilateral law enforcement cooperation by sharing information and assisting investigations more responsively and routinely. For their part, Western governments, the United Nations, and other international organizations could press the UAE to make its property and corporate records more transparent.
Topic:
Corruption, Economy, Financial Crimes, Elites, and Property
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Dubai, and Gulf Nations

1711. U.S. Foreign Policy for the Middle Class: Perspectives From Nebraska

Author:
Salman Ahmed, Allison Gelman, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Wendy Cutler, Rozlyn Engel, David Gordon, Jennifer Harris, Douglas Lute, Jill O'Donnell, Daniel M. Price, David Rosenbaum, Christopher Smart, Jake Sullivan, Ashley J. Tellis, Eric Thompson, Janell C. Walther, and Tom Wyler
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. foreign policy has not come up often in the 2020 presidential campaign. But when it has, candidates on both sides of the aisle frequently have stressed that U.S. foreign policy should not only keep the American people safe but also deliver more tangible economic benefits for the country’s middle class. The debate among the presidential contenders is not if that should happen but how to make it happen. All too often, this debate takes place within relatively small circles within Washington, DC, without the benefit of input from state and local officials, small business owners, community leaders, local labor representatives, and others on the front lines of addressing the challenges facing middle-class households. That is why the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace convened a bipartisan task force in late 2017 to lift up such voices and inject them into the ongoing debate. The task force partnered with university researchers to study the perceived and measurable economic effects of U.S. foreign policy on three politically and economically different states in the nation’s heartland—Colorado, Nebraska, and Ohio. The first two reports on Ohio and Colorado were published in December 2018 and November 2019, respectively. This third report on Nebraska has been prepared in partnership with a team of researchers at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln (UNL). To gauge perceptions of how Nebraska’s middle class is faring and the ways in which U.S. foreign policy might fit in, the Carnegie and UNL research teams reviewed household surveys and conducted individual interviews and focus groups, between July and August 2019, with over 130 Nebraskans in Columbus, Scottsbluff/Gering, Kearney, Lincoln, North Platte, and Omaha.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Domestic Politics, Class, and Trade
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1712. Coronavirus and the Middle East

Author:
Dan Gottlieb and Mordechai Kedar
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus crisis has exposed Arab and Islamic notions of fraternity, mutual commitment, and solidarity as hollow rhetorical slogans. Each country in the region is focused entirely on its own efforts to survive economically, socially, and politically as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc.
Topic:
Government, Health, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East

1713. China’s Response to the Killing of Soleimani

Author:
Roie Yellinek
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
China and Iran have a close relationship, but Beijing’s influence over Tehran is questionable. Its response to the killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani offers clues to its view of its own role in the Middle East.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Political stability, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

1714. What US strategy gets wrong about China in Africa

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Trump administration’s Africa strategy is rooted in three misconceptions about China’s African footprint—and a fourth about US-Africa economic relations—that are either factually incorrect or overstated in terms of the broader strategic challenges they pose to US interests: (1) Chinese engagement in Africa crowds out opportunities for trade and investment with and from the United States; (2) Chinese engagement in Africa is resource-seeking—to the detriment of US interests; (3) Chinese engagement in Africa is designed to foster debt-based coercive diplomacy; and (4) US-Africa economic linkages are all one-way and concessionary (i.e., aid-based). Hendrix finds little evidence to suggest Chinese trade and investment ties crowd out US trade and investment opportunities. China’s resource-seeking bent is evident in investment patterns, but it is more a function of Africa’s having comparatively large, undercapitalized resource endowments than China’s attempt to corner commodity markets. Chinese infrastructural development—particularly large projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative—may result in increased African indebtedness to the Chinese, but there is little reason to think debt per se will vastly expand Chinese military capacity in the region. And finally, US-Africa economic relations are much less one-sided and concessionary (i.e., aid-based) than conventional wisdom suggests.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Africa, China, North America, and United States of America

1715. The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy

Author:
Damian Wnukowski and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic and efforts to suppress it (the Great Lockdown) will lead to the collapse of the global economy. In the short term, the reduction in production and consumption in the countries most affected by the pandemic will lead to a global recession. In the long run, the crisis may result in a partial retreat from globalisation, higher indebtedness, and narrowing the differences in economic potential between the EU and the U.S., and China. A positive side effect may be the acceleration of the development of the digital economy, including the services market.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

1716. Indonesia: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:
Indonesia

1717. Canada: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:
Canada

1718. China: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:
China

1719. United States of America: 5-year forecast table

Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economy, 5-year summary, Charts and tables, and Data sources and definitions
Political Geography:
United States of America