Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 25 Years / Topic: Economy

Author:: Adam Kuź
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: In the second decade of the 21st century, the Middle Kingdom, which had huge financial surpluses, became the world’s largest exporter of money capital, which meant that investment policy became the main element of China’s foreign policy. In the case of Central and Eastern Europe, the 16+1 (17+1) format, containing both investment policy and soft power elements, has become the basic tool of the general policy of Middle Kingdom. This article aims to define the basic principles of China’s policy towards Central and Eastern Europe. For this purpose, the following general hypothesis was formulated: Chinese policy in Central and Eastern Europe consists of presenting the countries of this region with initiatives that do not go beyond the sphere of declarations and serve as a bargaining chip in relations with Germany, the country with the greatest potential in the European Union. The general hypothesis gives rise to detailed hypotheses that were verified in individual parts of the article with the use of the comparative method. The reasons most often mentioned in the literature on the subject, such as economic, cultural, social, and political differentiation of Central and Eastern European countries, legal barriers resulting from EU legislation, insufficient recognition of the region’s needs by the Chinese side and asymmetry of expectations of both parties, undoubtedly largely contribute to the lack of effective Sino-CEE cooperation. However, they cannot be considered decisive because similar problems occur wherever Chinese companies appear. However, in many regions of the world, despite these obstacles, mutual economic relations are more dynamic than in CEE. The reasons why the potential of the 16+1 (17+1) format has not been properly used can be found primarily in the context of German-Chinese relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economy, Investment, and Capital
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

1615. COVID-19 and the Exacerbation of Gender Inequality: How the Pandemic Disproportionately Affected Women around the World

Author:: Jennifer Dikler
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The gender wage gap, or the idea that women have historically and consistently earned less than men, has been widely studied and accepted over the past few decades. This gender wage gap exists globally and serves as a powerful indicator of the gender inequality experienced by women. As of 2019, according to data amassed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), South Korea’s gender wage gap among full-time employees is the largest among the countries that make up the OECD, coming in at 32.5%. Japan was second at 32.5%, followed by Mexico, the United States, and Canada at 18.8%, 18.5%, and 17.6%, respectively. Notably, in countries with higher levels of racial diversity, the gender wage gap is usually significantly exacerbated for women of color. Despite narrowing in recent years, the gender wage gap is extremely stubborn, and very much existent, as is the general global gender inequality that it reflects. In the past 18 months, the world's population and the global economy have been significantly upended by the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus has affected virtually every country in the world, especially nations with fewer resources to help combat its spread. Studies are also beginning to confirm that COVID-19 has had a disproportionate economic effect on women in many countries, amplifying the gender inequality that persisted in the global economy even prior to the pandemic. For example, as outlined in a study published by McKinsey in July 2020, “Women make up 39 percent of global employment but account for 54 percent of overall [COVID-19- related] job losses” (Madgavkar et al. 2020). However, the widening of the gender gap during the pandemic has been far from universal, with some countries seeing the opposite results. This brief seeks to provide an initial exploration, specifically highlighting how variably the pandemic has affected the United States, South Korea, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, the Honduras, Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany. When it comes to global gender equality, where progress is so essential and yet so slow, it is extremely important to explore the economic setbacks created by the pandemic. If not addressed properly, these setbacks might not only slow the fight toward gender equality, but could also slow down the global economy.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1616. Merger Review Regimes in the ASEAN Region and Case Analysis of Grab-Uber Merger

Author:: Yungshin Jang and Gu Sang Kang
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In 2018, the largest yet cross-border M&A deal between digital platforms in Southeast Asia was reached, namely the Grab-Uber M&A case. The local digital platform Grab consolidated the regional operations of San Francisco, California-based Uber, a development which had significant effects on competition and consumer welfares in the Southeast Asia digital market. The competition authorities in the region independently initiated their investigation and started to deliberate the merger case to determine the anti-competitive effects on their domestic market, and to decide whether this transaction should be restricted or approved. Even though the two merging and merged firms completed their transactions, each authority applied different logic and imposed different remedies in deciding the case. Authorities in some member states such as Singapore and the Philippines decided that the Grab-Uber merger was anti-competitive, while others such as Indonesia and Viet Nam considered the merger not anti-competitive. Upon this backdrop, this article reviews the competition policies and laws of four major ASEAN countries – Indonesia, Singapore, Viet Nam, and the Philippines – from institutional and legal perspectives, focusing on M&A review regimes. Then, we briefly introduce how these com-petition authorities decided on the Grab-Uber merger case, also analyzing the competition effects of the case on the ride-hailing market in the countries. Based on the analysis results, we propose overseas competition policies for Korea.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Business, ASEAN, Economic Competition, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:: Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, and Singapore

1617. Korea’s Strategy on Trade Agreements with Developing Countries in Africa and the Pacific Regions

Author:: Meeryung La
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the US-China trade conflict intensifies, high dependence on US and China has been pointed out as a potential risk to the Korean economy. This calls for trade policies including diversification of trading partners and the establishment of a new model for trade agreements suitable to such diversified partners. Meanwhile, the necessity for such policies grows as protectionism spreads globally and trade order changes after the Covid-19 pandemic. Africa and the Pacific (AP) regions, the main areas of interest in this report, have been excluded from Korea’s FTA network despite their high growth potential and strategic significance. Most countries in the AP regions are geographically distant from Korea and mostly underdeveloped, so we have approached the region only in terms of development cooperation. Currently, trade agreements and systems for trade and investment with AP countries are insufficient, and the size of economic cooperation with these countries remains small. However, Africa has high market potential, owing to various factors such as its high population growth, middle-class growth, and transition to digital economy, while the Pacific island countries have abundant fisheries and marine resources, and wield voting power in international organizations. In this regard, it is necessary to build the foundation for cooperation with AP countries in the mid-to-long term. Against this backdrop, this study seeks mid- to long-term strategies to promote trade cooperation with AP countries. First we consider introducing and expanding nonreciprocal arrangements for developing countries in the AP regions, as currently provided to United Nations-defined least developed countries. Then we consider introducing a reciprocal trade agreement, for example, an FTA. As a result, we found that it is necessary to introduce an FTA model suitable for developing countries in the AP regions instead of introducing further nonreciprocal agreements. Based on the results of the study, this paper proposes strategic directions for trade cooperation with the AP regions, and furthermore, provides policy suggestions that should be included in the agreement with those countries.
Topic:: Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Digital Economy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, South Korea, and Asia-Pacific

1618. Reshoring: An Overview, Recent Trends, and Predictions for the Future

Author:: Jennifer Dikler
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the rise of globalization beginning in the 20th century, came the inevitable rise of offshoring — companies moving at least some parts of their operations abroad in order to cut costs and increase profits. In recent years, however, international developments, such as the rise of wages in what were typically considered low-cost countries, coupled with uncertainties created through global political tensions, have incentivized companies to move their operations back to their respective home countries or to make new investments in United States-based facilities. This phenomenon, known as reshoring, has only increased in 2020 and 2021, amidst US - China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Reshoring is growing in popularity particularly among companies based in the United States. In May 2021, for example, a US solar energy systems manufacturer called GAF Energy announced that the company would relocate its operations from Asia to Silicon Valley, expecting to add 400 jobs in research, engineering, and manufacturing roles (Szal, 2021). Around the same time, cycle and treadmill machine maker Peloton announced that it would invest $400 million to build its first US-based factory, citing heightened demand and the pandemic highlighting uncertainties that come with its global supply chain (Thomas, 2021). The company, which has announced that the US factory will be based in Troy Township, Ohio, stated that it expects to create over 2,000 jobs in the area. Also, in May 2021, Ford Motor announced a joint venture with South Korean battery maker SK Innovation to manufacture battery cells for electric vehicles in the United States (Wayland, 2021). The venture will be based in the US, marking a significant decision for Ford Motor, which operates worldwide and has notably been in the press in recent years for its decisions to offshore operations. Though an increasingly important and growing phenomenon, reshoring has not been studied nearly as much as offshoring. Experts predict that reshoring will only continue to increase as global supply chain uncertainties get revealed through political tensions and fallout from the pandemic. As companies gain a deeper understanding of the vulnerabilities in offshoring their production, they will become more incentivized to invest in their home country-based facilities. As such, it is more important than ever to understand reshoring, the reasons behind why companies decide to reshore, the recent trends among companies moving operations back home, and predictions about how reshoring is likely to evolve in years to come. This paper offers an overview of the aforementioned points, specifically focusing on companies based in the US, which are some of the more likely companies to make the decision to offshore and subsequently reshore.
Topic:: Economy, Industry, Supply Chains, and Reshoring
Political Geography:: South Korea and United States of America

1619. Changes in the Regional Structure of China's Domestic Market and Implications

Author:: Jihyun Jung, Won Seok Choi, Hong Won Kim, and Joohye Kim
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In response to intensifying conflict with the United States and the shock of Covid-19, China reinforced its strategy to expand domestic demand. China's domestic market is an important factor affecting Korea's exports and economic growth. Accordingly, a large body of research has been conducted in Korea on China's expansion policy and changes in its domestic market. However, most studies have analyzed changes in China's consumer market, import market and imported items, limiting the overall understanding of China's domestic economy. In addition, most studies on China's regional domestic market have analyzed the market segmented by region. Recognizing this gap, this study expanded the scope of analysis of the domestic market in China to the entire domestic final demand, and analyzed inter-regional trade relations and other economic relations based on an inter-regional input-output analysis, which has rarely been attempted in analyses of the Chinese domestic market. In addition, the changes in the regional structure of the Chinese import market and Korea's competitiveness were analyzed using Chinese trade statistics. In particular, by synthesizing the changes after the global financial crisis, a turning point in China's economic structure, we project future changes in the regional economic structure of China, which emphasizes the independence of its domestic economy. In addition, in the era of US-China conflict, the study aimed to select regional markets meaningful to Korea, and to present strategic directions toward China focusing on regional cooperation and approaches into the domestic market.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Regional Economy, and Domestic Market
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

1620. The Impact of Intellectual Property Protection through FTA on International Trade

Author:: Hyunsoo Kim, Sangjun Yea, Hyeyoon Keum, and Min Ji Kang
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The importance of intellectual property rights (IPRs) for innovation has grown and the protection of intellectual property in international trade has also been strengthened. AI-related patent applications have been increasing rapidly and many AI patents are being filed in various industries. Intellectual property also represents one of the main controversies of U.S.-China trade relations in the past three decades and remains one of the core issues behind the two countries’ recent trade conflicts. As a result, global protection for IPRs has been expanded in recent decades. This article investigates changes in the trend regarding the IP protection level in FTA and how the IP protection through FTAs has affected the composition of aggregate trade flows of member countries in order to provide basic findings necessary to formulate the FTA policies regarding the protection of IPRs in Korea.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Economy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and United States of America

1621. ASEAN Economic Integration on Services: An Analysis of Economic Impacts and Implications

Author:: Meeryung La
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: ASEAN continues its efforts to liberalize services trade in the region as part of the process of establishing the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). ASEAN has been increasing the level of regional liberalization through package negotiations of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS). After signing the 10th AFAS package, the package negotiations were replaced by the ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement (ATISA), which takes a negative list approach and includes regulatory cooperation between member states. Upon this backdrop, this paper attempts to examine the progress of service market integration within ASEAN and analyze the impact of service liberalization pursued by ASEAN. Based on the analysis results, we also present policy implications to enhance cooperation with ASEAN in the service sectors.
Topic:: Economy, Services, ASEAN, Economic Integration, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:: Asia

1622. The Reform of the WTO's Appellate Body: An Economic Perspective

Author:: Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Throughout this study, I consider some possible changes that may occur when the WTO’s AB is reformed based on the opinions stated by the US. Especially focusing on the issues of activist AB and its reviewing member countries’ domestic law, I conclude that banning the AB’s activist role may result in more opportunistic and inefficient policy choices on the part of member countries as to importing industries with less disputes cases. Regarding the latter issue, I argue that limiting the AB’s standard of review does not much change strategic decisions of member countries.
Topic:: Reform, Economy, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

1623. COVID-19 and the Demand for Labor and Skills in Europe: Early Evidence and Implications for Migration Policy

Author:: Terence Hogarth
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The European Union and several of its Member States have in recent years launched policies designed to increase the demand for and supply of skilled workers in Europe. This includes educating or attracting non-EU workers with in-demand digital skills and those with the expertise needed to further other policy aims, such as the European Union’s Green Deal. These were already ambitious goals before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, heralding an economic recession and high levels of unemployment. Weathering this crisis and setting the stage for a speedy recovery are now top priorities for policymakers across Europe. Yet longer-term labor market trends linked to technological developments and demographic shifts in some countries—as residents age and older workers leave the workforce—remain important, even as pandemic-related labor market disruptions and constrained national budgets may make pursuing policies to adapt to these changes more difficult. This MPI Europe issue brief explores how the pandemic is shaping the demand for workers and skills in the European Union, and how policymakers can respond to these trends. It also considers how leaders can keep one eye on Europe’s longer-term skills needs. Among its recommendations are investments in education and training systems; in measures that ensure migrants living in Europe are able to successfully integrate into the labor market and apply their skills; and in data-driven, transparent mechanisms to detect where resident workers are unable to meet labor demands and migration from beyond the European Union may be needed.
Topic:: Education, Migration, Labor Issues, Economy, Integration, COVID-19, Workforce, and Skills
Political Geography:: Europe

1624. Taking the Long View: Options for Inclusive Post-Pandemic Labor Markets

Author:: Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in harsh effects across European economies, and uncertainty persists even as vaccination campaigns have picked up speed. EU governments’ prompt investments in historically large job retention measures have temporarily cushioned the pandemic’s blow to labor markets, but this also means that the full impact is yet to be felt. What is clear, however, is that the crisis has exacerbated the labor market challenges some immigrant groups, such as recently arrived refugees and migrant women, were facing even before the pandemic began. Among the contributing factors are immigrants’ overrepresentation in hard-hit sectors, precarious work arrangements (such as part-time contracts and gig work), difficulties accessing social benefits, and some countries’ temporary suspension of integration supports. This MPI Europe report explores how the pandemic has affected immigrant workers thus far and how labor market trends such as automation, remote work, and the growth of the platform economy may affect migrant integration as European economies begin to recover. It also presents policy ideas and recommendations for crafting inclusive pandemic recovery strategies.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Refugees, Economy, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe

1625. The Economic Community of Central African States and Conflicts in the Region

Author:: ACCORD
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Conflict is a complex phenomenon that dwells in the domain of human relations. It rears its head when interests clash, opinions differ, needs fail to be met, agreements are breached, and the parties involved fail to find common ground for peace, or to continue relating to one another. Conflict can mutate and develop new dimensions. It can occur at the interpersonal, sectional, racial, ethnoreligious, national, regional, continental and international levels. Wars start as smaller-scale conflicts. Once a certain group in a given population continues to feel aggrieved, marginalised, frustrated or threatened, conflicts will likely arise. But human societies also make efforts to prevent conflicts before they occur, manage them when they do, and resolve them to sustain peace. Conflict handling thus includes the phases of prevention, management, and resolution. Prevention entails early efforts to avoid the occurrence of conflict. Management entails efforts to contain it. Resolution entails the de-escalation of conflict. It involves negotiation on the conditions or materials of dispute, reopening interaction, increasing cooperation, fostering positive attitudes, building trust, and sustaining peace among the parties.
Topic:: Economy, Conflict, Regional Politics, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:: Africa and Central Africa

1626. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: A surprise decision by the UAE-backed Joint Forces to withdraw from areas south of Hudaydah city and the surrounding governorate shook up the military situation on Yemen’s Red Sea coast.[1] The largest members of the Joint Forces are the Giants Brigade, Tariq Saleh’s National Resistance Forces and the Tihama Resistance. The withdrawal, which began on November 9, saw the Joint Forces move out 15,000 fighters and abandon frontlines in Hudaydah city, home to Yemen’s busiest port, as well as in Al-Durayhimi and Bayt al-Faqih districts, and from the majority of Al-Tuhayta district. The frontlines had been active but largely static since the December 2018 UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, which ended a Saudi-led coalition push to take Hudaydah city. The UN and the Yemeni government said they had no advance notice of the withdrawal,[2] and it appeared as though the Joint Forces’ own units were confused about how it would be carried out. The process was disorganized, with units disputing the order of withdrawal with one another. Houthi forces took advantage of this, shelling Joint Forces positions and causing dozens of casualties, according to local military sources. Hundreds of Joint Forces fighters were captured by Houthi forces. The Joint Forces withdrew to the south, establishing a new defensive line from the Al-Himah area, in southwestern Al-Tuhayat district, to Hays district, about 40 kilometers to the east. The official explanation from the Joint Forces was that the withdrawal corrected what it called the “mistake” of remaining in defensive positions while frontlines elsewhere in Yemen needed support.[3] In effect, the terms of the Stockholm Agreement prevented the Joint Forces from making any serious attempt to advance in Hudaydah since 2018. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021 - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/the-yemen-review/15894
Topic:: Development, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

1627. From Strategic Autonomy to the Internationalization of the Euro: Europe's Challenges and the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:: Nicola Bilotta and Alissa Siara
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: One of the key priorities of the new European Commission is to enhance the EU’s geopolitical credentials and “learn to use the language of power”, as stated by the incoming EU High Representative Josep Borrell. The EU’s ambition is two-fold: to increase the Union’s ability to project power and influence at the global level, including through increased integration and coordination among member states, and secondly to enhance the EU’s strategic autonomy from the US in the political, military and economic domains. Both objectives, ambitious in the best of circumstances, are today under severe strain by the COVID-19 crisis. Implications will be long-lasting and multidimensional, and for Europe, its impact will have a direct bearing on its ambition for strategic autonomy, touching each of the three pillars outlined above.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, Autonomy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

1628. This Time is Different. The "COVID-Shock" and Future of the Global Oil Market

Author:: Giuliano Garavini
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Oil markets are facing a perfect storm. The scissors of supply and demand are moving against one another, generating increasing pain on the oil industry and the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand could drop from 100 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2019 to nearly 80 mdb in 2020.1 If confirmed, this would be single biggest demand shock since petroleum started its race to become the most important energy source in the world.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Oil, Global Markets, and Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Global Focus

1629. Beyond Coronabonds: A New Constituent for Europe

Author:: Nicoletta Pirozzi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Every era has its symbols. In 1984, Mitterrand and Kohl held hands on the battlefield in Verdun, coming to symbolise the importance of peace in the pursuit of European integration. Today, in times of COVID-19, the so-called “Coronabonds” could have emerged as the symbol of a new Europe, one that is ready and able to do what it takes to collectively overcome the present crisis. Yet, what some member states consider an indispensable emblem of European solidarity, namely debt mutualisation to face an unprecedented symmetric crisis brought about by COVID-19, is regarded by others as an ultimate excuse for moral hazard. As a result, Europe could end up with a politically more digestible European Fund, as proposed by Commissioners Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton, designed to issue long-term bonds.[1] Or, as outlined by the Eurogroup, a Recovery Fund that is “temporary, targeted and commensurate” to the extraordinary costs of the current crisis, helping to spread them across time.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Governance, Finance, Economy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

1630. WTO Industrial Subsidy Regulation: US-EU-Japan Joint Statement of January 2020 and Afterwards

Author:: Cheon-Kee Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: On 14 January 2020 the United States, the European Union, and Japan (hereinafter referred to as “US-EU-Japan”) issued a trilateral joint statement, proposing a set of new rules to strengthen WTO regulation on industrial subsidies. While a total of seven joint announcements have been made so far, this is the first time that three WTO Members have presented specific ideas on how to amend existing subsidy rules. Many of the proposed amendments seem to primarily target China’s trade policy and practices. Among the six amendment items proposed in the Joint Statement, it seems that the United States is paying particular attention to the sixth item, i.e. in making explicit the possibility of using the out-of-country benchmark and on introducing necessary requirements to do so in measuring the benefit conferred and, ultimately, in calculating the amount of the countervailing duties (CVDs). Against this backdrop, in this Brief the author analyzes the relevant WTO provisions and GATT/WTO jurisprudence, and discusses various scenarios on future negotiations on WTO Reform on industrial subsidies.
Topic:: World Trade Organization, Economy, Negotiation, Trade Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: Japan, China, United States of America, and European Union

1631. Analysis of the Turkish Services Industry and Korea-Turkey Cooperation

Author:: Cheol-Won Lee, Hyun Jean Lee, Mahmut Tekçe, and Burcu Düzgün Öncel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Agreement on Trade in Services and the Agreement on Investment between Korea and Turkey came into effect in August 2018. This article focuses on the construction sector and the cultural contents sector to seek possible cooperative measures between the two countries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Culture, Economy, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

1632. The Economic Effects of Multinational Corporation Withdrawal and Policy Implications

Author:: Minsoo Han, Hyuk-Hwang Kim, Hyelin Choi, Danbee Park, and Jisu Kim
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The shutdown of the GM Koreas Gunsan plant in May 2018 heightened social interest in the withdrawal of mutlinational corporations (MNCs). Against this backdrop, the forthcoming research The economic effects of multinational corporation withdrawal and policy responses studies the previous cases of MNC withdrawal, estimates the effects on labor market., and provides policy directions to address to the withdrawal. This note summarizes some of its important results.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Economy, Multinational Corporations, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

1633. North Korea’s Trade System and Implications for Inter-Korean CEPA

Author:: Jang Ho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study examines changes in trade-related legal systems in North Korea and ac-tual trade transactions, and analyzes them in accordance with international standards (the WTO regulatory framework). Through this process, we will draw up measures to im-prove North Koreas trade system to open up the external economy as well as signing of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Ar-rangement (CEPA). The results of this study will contribute to understanding the main characteristics of trade-related laws and sys-tems within North Korea and suggest promis-ing directions for their improvement.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

1634. An Analysis of Service Trade Regulation in ASEAN and Its Implications

Author:: Meeryung La
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Korean government has been pursuing a New Southern Policy (NSP) focusing on the “3P” areas of cooperation ‒ People, Prosperity, and Peace. The NSP puts people at a center of policy, and emphasizes the enhancement of cultural conversation and people-to-people exchange between Korea and ASEAN. The majority of services trade, an area with a low level of cooperation between Korea and ASEAN, is inherently based on the exchange of people. Promoting services trade flows between Korea and ASEAN could contribute to achieving the vision of a People-centered community in the region. Also, when taking into account the fact that services are integral to the working of GVC, the government should pursue policies to promote services trade and to enhance cooperation with ASEAN in the services sector. To this end, we aim to identify the current status of service trade and service trade barriers between ASEAN and Korea. This report briefly covers ASEAN’s trade in services and the restrictiveness of service trade regulations in ASEAN, and then suggests policy recommendations based on the results.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Regulation, Economy, Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

1635. The Interests of Eastern Mediterranean States and Israeli Policies

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper scans the interests and activities of Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Egypt in the Mediterranean Basin – their varying and competing interests, their points of convergence and cooperation, and the challenges and opportunities for Israel. The paper is based on the main points raised at the third meeting of the working group on Israel in the Mediterranean, held in September 2019 in the Herzliya offices of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper shines a spotlight on key elements in regional relationships and significant activity taking place in the Mediterranean Basin, which Israel must consider in formulating and executing policy. It is based on the presentations and discussions conducted at the event and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

1636. Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue

Author:: Michal Yaari
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article focuses on relations between Israel and Qatar, analyzing them in historical context, in the context of Qatari foreign policy and in terms of their potential and the limitations imposed by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The article describes the shift from a mutual conception of hostility to unusual cooperation over the Gaza crisis. While Israel aspires to avoid additional rounds of violence with Gaza, Qatar seeks to strengthen its regional role as a mediator, and mutual interests converge into joint activity to avert an additional military clash between Hamas and Israel. The cooperation between the states illustrates how the Palestinian issue can leverage regional cooperation. At the same time, the untapped diplomatic, economic and civilian potential of Israel-Qatar relations points to the limitations imposed by the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Economy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Qatar

1637. Israel-Morocco Cooperation in 2019: Warming from the Bottom Up

Author:: Einat Levi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article examines the current Israel-Morocco cooperation and its development through 2019. It briefly describes developments in diplomatic, security, economic and civilian arenas in order to find common ground and identify trends. Naturally, the paper will not elaborate much on the security-intelligence aspect of the cooperation, despite its centrality, due to its classified nature.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

1638. Israel and Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the role of energy in shaping Israel’s policies towards the Mediterranean. It is based on the main points raised at the fourth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held in December 2019 at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. The meeting was held at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. This paper highlights the main repercussions of energy findings on regional cooperation and the opportunities it opens up for Israel. It presents the link between diplomatic and economic considerations, and the emerging energy alternatives that Israel is considering as it formulates and implements policies. The paper does not reflect agreement among all meeting participants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean

1639. Professionalizing the Iraqi Army: US Engagement after the Islamic State

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Security cooperation with Iraq remains a critical component of the US-Iraq relationship. Despite neighboring Iran’s ability to limit US political and economic engagement, Iraq still seeks US assistance to develop its military and to combat resurgent terrorist organizations. This monograph provides a historical and cultural basis from which to understand the limitations and potential for US cooperation with Iraq’s armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Economy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1640. A Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Frank Aum, Jacob Stokes, Patricia M. Kim, Atman M. Trivedi, Rachel Vandenbrink, Jennifer Staats, and Joseph Yun
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: A joint statement by the United States and North Korea in June 2018 declared that the two countries were committed to building “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.” Such a peace regime will ultimately require the engagement and cooperation of not just North Korea and the United States, but also South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan. This report outlines the perspectives and interests of each of these countries as well as the diplomatic, security, and economic components necessary for a comprehensive peace.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, Economy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

1641. The Intersection of Investment and Conflict in Myanmar

Author:: Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Developing countries throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America are grappling with how to deal with China's rising economic influence—particularly the multibillion-dollar development projects financed through China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Myanmar, however, appears to be approaching foreign investment proposals with considerable caution. This report examines the framework the country is developing to promote transparency and accountability and to reserve for itself the authority to weigh the economic, social, and environmental impacts of major projects proposed by international investors, including China.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Economy, Conflict, Investment, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

1642. The “Green Diamond”: Coffee and Conflict in the Central African Republic

Author:: Fiona Mangan, Igor Acko, and Manal Taha
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Coffee production is a fairly small part of the Central African Republic's economy, but it plays an outsize role in the country's ongoing conflict. Armed militia groups that hold sway over the country's main coffee growing regions and trade routes reap millions of dollars in funding to sustain their operations. This report discusses how understanding the political economy of conflict in the Central African Republic can help national and international stakeholders break the cycle of violence.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Economy, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

1643. Russia economy: Russia in 2020: what to expect

Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, and Forecast
Political Geography:: Russian Federation

1644. Nicaragua economy: Financial stabilisation masks underlying weaknesses

Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Finance outlook
Political Geography:: Nicaragua

1645. Myanmar: 5year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Myanmar

1646. Hong Kong: 5-year forecast table

Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Charts and tables, and Data sources and definitions
Political Geography:: Hong Kong

1647. Virgin Islands (British): Basic data

Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
Political Geography:: Virgin Islands and British

1648. Belgium economy: Government acquires special powers but economy will contract

Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Country outlook
Political Geography:: Belgium

1649. Bolivia: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Bolivia and Plurinational State of

1650. Kuwait: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Kuwait

1651. Sri Lanka: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Sri Lanka

1652. Portugal: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Portugal

1653. Bangladesh: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Bangladesh

1654. Iran: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Iran and Islamic Republic of

1655. World economy: Liquidity injections buy time for vulnerable economies

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Finance outlook
Political Geography:: Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Japan, China, Sudan, Indonesia, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Canada, India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, Kuwait, Tajikistan, France, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Yemen, Sri Lanka, Germany, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Hungary, Australia, Albania, Italy, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mexico, Jordan, Bahrain, Singapore, Tunisia, Chile, Oman, Angola, Zambia, Ghana, New Zealand, Ecuador, Malawi, Namibia, Mauritius, Panama, Belarus, United States of America, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Seychelles, Democratic Republic of Congo, UK, Russian Federation, Syrian Arab Republic, Tanzania, United Republic of, Venezuela, and Bolivarian Republic of

1656. Bulgaria: 5-year forecast summary

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
Political Geography:: Bulgaria

1657. eSwatini: Basic data

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
Political Geography:: Swaziland

1658. eSwatini: Country outlook

Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
Political Geography:: Swaziland

1659. Perspectives on the future of Idlib

Author:: Kirill Semenov
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The situation in Idlib poses a challenge to the Assad government. Damascus has neither the forces nor the means to resolve the problem. Moreover, any operation conducted against the Syrian moderate opposition and the radical alliance “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) concentrated in this region could be significantly problematic for the government. Turkey seeks to establish a protectorate or security zone in Idlib to accommodate those fleeing regime-held areas and prevent a new refugees flow into Turkey. The gains achieved by the Turkish operation in Idlib by the establishment of the security zone has potentially been lost as a result of the subsequent Russian backed Syrian government offensive, which has created a problem for Turkey with hundreds of thousands heading toward the Turkish border and threatening to exasperate what is already a costly refugee problem for Ankara. In order for Turkey to address issues in Idlib, including IDPs and economic problems, it first needs to deal with the HTS, ideally finding a way to dissolve the group. This could potentially be an area of cooperation for Moscow and Ankara. This may be necessary to prevent a deterioration in the security situation and long-term destabilisation of the area.
Topic:: Security, Refugees, Economy, Political stability, Displacement, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Transition
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

1660. Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves

Author:: Dalia Ghanem
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority. In Algeria, state formation remains an evolving process, as evidenced by the situation in the country’s northeastern border regions. With Algerian officials in these areas permitting smuggling of petrol and certain other commodities over the border with Tunisia and smugglers weeding out security threats even as they go about their illicit trade, the two ostensibly adversarial parties complement each other. This unusual relationship furthers the intrusion of the state into citizens’ livelihoods even as it manipulates state authority.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Economy, Borders, Trade, and Smuggling
Political Geography:: Algeria, North Africa, and Tunisia

1661. The Impact of COVID-19 on Vulnerable Mineral Supply Chains

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: This report will concentrate on select examples of the growing US vulnerability to global competitors due to shortages of key mineral resources in our domestic supply base. Dependence on China for raw materials and competition with its manufacturing firms is also a key focus. Shortages do not always indicate a problem because our close allies in mineral-rich countries like Australia and Canada can mitigate gaps in domestic supply. However, China’s growing control over many basic materials, and its history of using that control as leverage for its own economic and political goals, makes this a cause of concern for the continued strength of the US manufacturing economy.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, COVID-19, and Minerals
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Australia, North America, and United States of America

1662. Nine Months of COVID-19: The Impact on South Asia

Author:: Aparna Pande and Husain Haqqani
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Since February of 2020, the eight countries of South Asia have been contending with the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The region has seen the third-highest death rate in the world from the virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, and brought long-term health impacts the medical community is only beginning to recognize. The economic consequences of COVID-19 on South Asia are proving to be even greater than the healthcare challenges in the region. Different South Asian countries have dealt with the pandemic in various ways, but the economic costs overall seem to be higher than the healthcare consequences. A lot has happened in the world’s most populous region since the “Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia” report was published in May 2020. This document serves as an update on the progression of the pandemic in South Asia.
Topic:: Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: South Asia and Asia

1663. Towards an Even Stronger Japan-US Alliance

Author:: Taro Hayashi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Sixty years ago, Japan and the United States signed the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security marking the beginning of the Japan-US Alliance as we know it today. The two countries have made a commitment to core values such as democracy, respect for human rights, and a rules-based international order. The Alliance has played an integral role in ensuring the peace and security of the two countries as well as realizing their shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific through security cooperation.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Economy, Alliance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1664. An Analysis of the Legal Framework for Public Debt Management in Zambia

Author:: Florence Banda-Muleya, Mbewe Kalikeka, Zambwe Shingwele, Philip Ngongo, and Shebo Nalishebo
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Zambia’s current legal framework for public debt management is inadequate. The high level of external debt standing at US$11.2 billion and domestic debt at K80.2 billion due to fast pace of debt contraction; the resulting heightened risk of debt distress; and the weak implementation of the 2017-2019 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS), raise questions on the adequacy of the laws that govern public debt management. Now more than ever, with Zambia quickly headed to its first bullet repayment on its Eurobond debt, the country needs to enhance its legal framework on Public Debt Management (PDM).
Topic:: Debt, Government, Economy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

1665. Towards an EU Hydrogen Economy: Policy and Energy Security Perspectives

Author:: Mariana Liakopoulou
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Hydrogen is positioned as a strong candidate for fulfilling the carbon-neutrality objective set out in the European Green Deal, provided that it is able to compete on a level-playing field with other technologies favoring sector coupling. Pushing the envisioned hydrogen economy past its tipping point necessitates a conducive EU regulation, repurposing of existing large-scale EU networks, along with additional investments, as well as strategic partnerships with the EU’s third-country suppliers. This paper aims to outline the role of hydrogen as a component of the decarbonization of the European natural gas sector, in the context of an integrated energy system.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Europe

1666. It’s Time for a New Deal

Author:: Constantine Michalopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The prospects of the Greek economy are mostly good with growth continuing for the fourth straight year. But there is a sense of disappointment, as the recovery has not been very strong and pre-crisis income levels will not be regained for another decade. There are two main reasons for the sluggish recovery: The European creditors have imposed on Greece the requirement to run a primary budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP for five years to ensure that they get repaid—a requirement that constricts growth of the Greek private sector—through heavy taxation of consumers and business. And domestic investment is sluggish, although there are plenty of unutilized resources, such as those provided by the European Structural Funds. There is a need for a new deal with the European Institutions: the Europeans should be more relaxed about getting repaid because of Greece’s much improved access to the European capital markets and be willing to accept a Greek government commitment to a significantly lower primary budget surplus for the next several years. In exchange the Greek government should commit to a commensurate increase in domestic investment through reforms of the banking sector as well as greater public sector investment spending.
Topic:: Government, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

1667. Mexico and the United States: a new beginning | México y Estados Unidos: un nuevo comienzo

Author:: Agustín Barrios Gómez, Henry Cuellar, Juan Carlos Baker, and Kenneth Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:: North America started 2020 as a bloc of three democratic countries with shared values that trade freely in the context of regional peace and cooperation. We are nearly 500 million North American citizens who came together to sign the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) of 1994 and its successor, the United StatesMexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) of 2018, providing a legal framework for commercial freedom on our continent. The world often conducts its affairs with a zero-sum game mentality, meaning that one country’s gain is another’s loss. This is why agreements like NAFTA, in 1994, and the USMCA, today, are particularly valuable. It is also the reason that we must not take them for granted. The effort invested in creating the USMCA was born precisely from the understanding of a fundamental idea: restricting the liberty of our people to trade freely is a mistake. It was not an easy case to make. The current U.S. president based his political campaign on animosity towards Mexico, in particular, and against exchange with the world, in general. However, he was led to a position of saving free trade in North America by the millions of his fellow citizens who saw their economic livelihood threatened by protectionism and the possibility of severing close economic ties with their neighbors. At the same time, a sector of Mexican society that has always been antagonistic to two pillars of trade in our continent: integration with the United States, and economic freedom, came to power in Mexico. This raised the specter of a challenge to free trade from Mexican socialists. However, the overwhelmingly positive results and obvious benefits of NAFTA for Mexico were of such magnitude, that protectionism was not an issue in the return to power of the nationalist Left. It now looks like a given, but both in the case of the U.S. and in the case of Mexico, the survival of the framework of openness born on January 1, 1994, is a testament to enormous political and economic success. In a world that increasingly favors the Pyrrhic victories of political symbolism, the triumph of reason over nativist fervor is well worth highlighting. For each of the three countries, the USMCA was the way to protect these gains, but each country placed its own emphasis on their priorities. Canada, currently the most politically stable country of the three, clearly sought to uphold a system that provides the country with access to its main market, as well as to another market (Mexico) in which it has fewer interests, but which is still important. The United States, the former architect of the world order that promoted economic freedoms for 71 years (1945-2016), was set to become its spoiler. Fortunately for the general interest, despite the rhetoric, with the USMCA it was possible to find a compromise that safeguarded the gains made from economic integration since 1994. Sectors of society, such as farmers and border communities which had never organized to defend their markets, got together to successfully make their case directly to the Administration. Mexico’s interests were clearer: manufactured exports are the most dynamic and competitive part of its economy. They not only provide a major source of hard currency, but in conjunction with the imports made possible by income from exports, they support the internal market, as well. For Mexico, even more than for Canada, protecting free trade of North America was imperative. The result was an Agreement that protected the benefits of North American commercial freedom, at the same time as it brought certain aspects up to date. It also addressed a number of the concerns that had been raised by blue collar workers in the United States, particularly pertaining to the automotive sector. This document helps us understand these changes and provides perspective from three authors who were directly involved in making the USMCA a reality.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Economy, NAFTA, Free Trade, Trade, and USMCA
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1668. Eurasia goes to Africa

Author:: Amanda Paul, Ivano di Carlo, and Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioğlu
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Any new Africa policy from the EU and US should take into account the growing influence of China, Russia and Turkey in the continent and aim to even the scales. To succeed, they must develop a new narrative on Africa and finally recognise it as a genuinely equal partner on the global stage. Africa is a dynamic and diverse continent going through fundamental economic, political and security changes. While the EU and the US remain important partners for Africa, they are no longer the only players in town. New – and not so new – actors have recognised Africa's potential and are trying to use it to their advantage. China, Russia and Turkey in particular, whose presence has broadly been welcomed by African nations, have all been steadily expanding their political and economic clout in the continent over the past few years. The EU and US must, therefore, adapt their policies and approaches to the new reality that is unfolding in Africa. To better understand China’s, Russia’s and Turkey’s objectives, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's (FES) EU Office in Brussels and the European Policy Centre (EPC) set out to conduct an in-depth analysis of the three countries' ties with Africa. The results of this research project, entitled “Eurasia goes to Africa”, are collected in this book. The authors take a closer look at China's, Russia's and Turkey's economic and political interests in the continent; their involvement in the security landscape; the effectiveness of their soft power tools, including in education, media, religion, and humanitarian and development aid; and how Africans judge their growing presence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, Turkey, and United States of America

1669. The circular economy: Going digital

Author:: Annika Hedberg and Stefan Sipka
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU is currently engaged in two transformations that could change our economy and society for the better. If managed well, and in unison, the circular economy and the digital revolution could help the EU address its greatest challenge: to build a sustainable, green economy that is competitive on the global stage. Digitalisation will not automatically lead to greater sustainability. Nor is the inclusion of cutting-edge technologies in the circular economy a given. But with the right encouragement and incentives from the EU, data and digitally-enabled solutions can accelerate and boost the transition to a sustainable circular economy. They can enhance connectivity and information sharing; make business models, products and processes more circular; and empower citizens and consumers to contribute to the transition. They can be used to improve different segments of the circular economy, including design, production, consumption, reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and overall waste management and recycling. Combining the circular and digital agendas carries enormous potential. It would be a shame to waste it.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Digital Economy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

1670. COVID-19: A turning point for the EU?

Author:: Herman Van Rompuy
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: President Emeritus of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy weighs up the long-term lessons we should take away from the ongoing corona crisis. He looks at the impact of COVID-19, and the quarantine measures many governments have subsequently taken to stop its spread, on our economy and societies, on the fate of multilateralism, and the fight against inequality and global warming. Honestly assessing the response of the European Union, EPC President Van Rompuy finds a hopeful development in the compromise the Eurogroup was able to find on 9 April but argues that it is just a first step. He also warns of the ghosts of crises past. Old rivalries and national prejudices are rearing their heads again, and not only will it prevent the EU member states from finding a way out of the crisis but it could also be detrimental for the Union in the long run.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

1671. Europe’s path to strategic recovery: Brace, empower and engage

Author:: Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: EU leaders should rise to the challenge posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and set the Union on the course of not only economic, but fully-fledged strategic recovery. This means strengthening Europe’s cohesion and resilience; leveraging Europe’s untapped potential to carry its full weight on the global stage; and engaging in upholding rules-based cooperation. If Europe fails to measure up to the task, the EU will drift towards more political fragmentation and strategic dependence. The health crisis has not only heightened but also highlighted Europe’s vulnerability to global challenges and disorder. The pandemic risks amplifying geopolitical competition, which is undermining multilateral cooperation at a time when sound management of our interdependence is crucial. Under such conditions, the dysfunction of the global order may lead to irretrievable system failure, with dire consequences for all. Europeans should not only craft a decisive response to the pandemic but also use it as a springboard to reinforce the EU and its domestic power base on the global stage. The EU and its member states must prepare to cope with power politics without endorsing its logic. They should become more strategic and, where need be, more autonomous. Discussion on a recovery fund should not be limited to the financial dimension, but instead thought of in terms of ‘grand strategy’. Socioeconomic recovery is the fuel of political cohesion, which in turn is the engine of a stronger Europe in the world. A more powerful Europe is the only vehicle geared to protect EU citizens from the many external challenges and project Europe’s interests on the global stage.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Recovery, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

1672. The economic impact of COVID-19 on the EU: From the frying pan into the fire

Author:: Fabian Zuleeg
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The world is facing an unprecedented economic crisis due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. At a time when the first instinct is to focus on the national level and greater sovereignty and self-reliance, the best strategy to answer the crisis lies in greater cooperation. Fabian Zuleeg analyses the onset of this crisis and provides sound predictions of future economic impacts by applying lessons from previous recessions.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

1673. Towards a green, competitive and resilient EU economy: How can digitalisation help?

Author:: Annika Hedberg and Stefan Sipka
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: EU leaders stress the importance of the green transition and digital transformation and consider it crucial to the EU's recovery from the coronavirus crisis. Rightly so. Aligning the EU's green and digital transition policies carries enormous potential and should become central to the Union's efforts to create a competitive and sustainable climate-neutral economy. The European Commission's Green Deal proposal – supported by, for example, the Industrial Strategy, the Circular Economy Action Plan and Digital Strategy – already recognises that the two transitions are closely linked. But the EU should go a step further. It should lead the way and ensure that digitalisation enhances environmental protection and climate action and that the digital sector becomes greener. The findings in this paper are the result of a year-long EPC research project commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, Green Technology, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

1674. America’s Use of Coercive Economic Statecraft

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter Harrell, Paula J. Dobriansky, and Adam Szubin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: U.S. policymakers will continue to intensively use a growing array of coercive economic tools, including tariffs, sanctions, trade controls, and investment restrictions. The growing use reflects a desire by policymakers to use coercive economic tools in support of a growing range of policy objectives. Diplomacy around these tools has long been challenging and can require hard choices. To use these tools effectively, policymakers should focus on articulating clear objectives and measuring effectiveness and costs. U.S.-China competition raises the stakes for getting the use of coercive economic statecraft right. Policymakers in the next presidential administration and Congress would be well-served to spend at least as much effort focusing on the positive tools of statecraft. These include domestic economic renewal, international finance and development incentives, and positive trade measures, among others.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1675. Sanctions by the Numbers: Spotlight on Iran

Author:: Abigail Eineman
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The June edition of “Sanctions by the Numbers” illustrated a decade of U.S. sanctions policy by using heat maps to show the countries with the largest number of designations. Across both the Trump and Obama administrations, Iran was always at the top of the list. This edition of Sanctions by the Numbers explores Iran sanctions further, tracking how designations and delistings have evolved over time, the dozens of countries affected by Iran-related sanctions programs, and the top types of U.S. designations. The data add to the existing consensus that sanctions have an inverse relationship with Iran’s economic health, and designations have far outpaced delistings in the last three years as part of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1676. A New Arsenal for Competition: Coercive Economic Measures in the U.S.-China Relationship

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter Harrell, and Ashley Feng
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States and China have long used coercive economic measures to advance both economic and foreign policy objectives. In recent years, however, both countries have turned to coercive economic measures as mainstream instruments of foreign policy and national security policy, and increasingly have deployed coercive economic measures against each other. For the United States, China’s economic scale and global interconnections make it a fundamentally different type of target for coercive economic measures than the comparatively smaller and less sophisticated economies that have been primary targets of U.S. economic coercion in the past. The United States cannot simply isolate China from the global economy. Instead, it must adopt a more strategic focus on limiting Chinese actions in areas significant to U.S. national security and shoring up economic and technology arenas where the United States maintains lasting leverage. Over the past several years, the United States has deployed an array of coercive economic measures against China. The most prominent of these have been the tariffs on approximately two-thirds of U.S. imports from China. The tariffs remain largely in place despite implementation of the Phase One trade deal that the United States and China signed in January 2020. But the United States also has developed and deployed an increasingly sophisticated set of other coercive economic tools that will play a prominent role in U.S.-China relations over the years ahead, regardless of whether the United States and China fully implement the Phase One deal and reach a broader Phase Two trade agreement. Those other coercive economic tools include export controls, restrictions on U.S. imports to secure U.S. supply chains, heightened scrutiny of Chinese investment in the United States, sanctions, and stepped-up law enforcement measures against Chinese intellectual property (IP) theft and other Chinese activities in the United States. This expanding set of measures serves a broadening array of U.S. policy goals, including economic objectives, foreign policy goals, and the maintenance of America’s technological edge. The U.S. record of success in the use of these coercive economic measures has been mixed. While tariffs and other measures have succeeded in putting some macroeconomic pressure on China, they have not extracted fundamental concessions from Beijing. Targeted sanctions and law enforcement measures similarly have had economic impacts on some Chinese companies, but other Chinese companies have demonstrated an ability to weather U.S. economic coercion. To be effective in translating economic coercion into policy change by China, the United States needs to better integrate its coercive measures with each other and with other policies, better signal intentions and escalation, more rigorously assess impacts and costs, and galvanize allied support and coordinated action. For its part, China appears to recognize a balancing act between limiting economic ties with foreign partners in some domains and maintaining them in others. China has sought to distance certain Chinese economic sectors, particularly high-tech manufacturing, from the United States in some areas, investing heavily in domestic capacity development. In other areas where China must rely on foreign partners for technology, IP, or manufacturing, or where China does not appear to see a clear interest in severing trade, Beijing has sought to keep trade and investment flows moving in an unencumbered fashion. As for the United States, this is a dynamic policy environment.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1677. Forging an Alliance Innovation Base

Author:: Daniel Kliman, Ben Fitzgerald, Kristine Lee, and Joshua Fitt
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: This report presents a blueprint for a community of technology innovation and protection anchored by America and its allies. Unless the United States builds this community—an “alliance innovation base”—it will steadily lose ground in the contest with China to ascend the commanding technological heights of the 21st century. Given that technology will increasingly determine future military advantage, underpin economic prosperity, and function as a tool for promoting liberal and illiberal visions of domestic governance, the stakes could not be higher. To compete, China is leveraging its formidable scale—whether measured in terms of research and development (R&D) expenditures, data sets, scientists and engineers, venture capital, or the reach of its leading technology companies. The only way for the United States to tip the scale back in its favor is to deepen cooperation with allies. The global diffusion of innovation also places a premium on aligning U.S. and ally efforts to protect technology. Unless coordinated with allies, tougher U.S. investment screening and export control policies, for example, will feature major seams that Beijing can exploit. America’s current approach to allies on technology innovation and protection remains a work in progress. In recent years, animated by concerns about China, the United States has made a concerted effort to step up engagement with allies in both areas. Existing mechanisms for deepening innovation with allies include technology scouting programs, multilateral cooperative frameworks, rapid innovation initiatives, and bilateral projects. However, these mechanisms at times lack sufficient resourcing, move too slowly, or feature rigid constraints on participation. U.S. instruments for working with allies on technology protection also contain major points of weakness. Multilateral export control regimes, though inclusive, are ponderous. The extraterritorial reach of U.S. export control laws can generate unintended obstacles to technology collaboration with allies. Bilateral and minilateral consultations on protection lack positive incentives to motivate allies to incur immediate costs such as forgoing technology sector investments from China.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1678. Total Competition: China’s Challenge in the South China Sea

Author:: Patrick M. Cronin and Ryan Neuhard
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China’s bid for ascendancy remains anchored in the South China Sea and surrounding Southeast Asian countries. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) deems it economically and militarily vital to dominate the resources and sea lines of communication of a body of water twice the size of Alaska. Achieving this goal requires tethering neighboring countries into Beijing’s ambit while making the existing ruleset more favorable to China and displacing the dominant power behind the existing regional order. Some may find comfort in describing the scenario underway as a return to a “China-centered” rather than “Sino-centric” region.1 However, an authoritarian China’s coercive attempts to wield hegemonic control of the South China Sea threatens the sovereignty of Southeast Asian states and international freedom of the seas, both of which are of fundamental national interest to the United States. Yet the South China Sea and Southeast remain the least defended and most bountiful region susceptible to Chinese predations and inducements. The CCP leadership is obsessed with the idea that outside forces intend to contain China’s development, foment internal unrest, and prevent it from retaking what it considers to be its rightful place center stage in regional and global affairs. In partial response to deep-seated insecurities and renewed great-power ambitions, Xi Jinping and the CCP are in the process of attempting to exercise control over the entire nine-dash line claim covering the vast majority of the South China Sea and to turn Southeast Asia into a latter-day tributary system. CCP propaganda casts China’s quest for control over maritime Asia as an inexorable outcome of China’s rise and America’s decline. Curiously, the only government speaking seriously about “stopping” China is Beijing, suggesting that its policies are influenced more by subjective internal fears than by objective external realities. China wants nothing to stop it from consolidating its maximalist historic claims, from denying the United States the ability to intervene in regional conflicts, and from dismantling America’s postwar alliance system.
Topic:: Leadership, Economy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South China Sea

1679. Socio-Spatial and Ethnic-Racial Segregation in Megacities, Large Cities and Global Cities in Africa

Author:: Fabio Macedo Velame and Thiago Augusto Ferreira da Costa
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The estimated world population for 2030 is 8.6 billion people, one billion more than the current 7.6 billion (UN 2017). The same study points out that nine countries will account for more than half of this population growth, with five African nations among them (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt), in addition to three Asian countries (India, Pakistan and Indonesia) and one country in the Americas (The United States). In this work, we present an overview of the megacities, large cities and global cities of seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, which, according to the UN, is the continent’s fastest growing region in population terms. These countries, with the cities that stand out on the international scene, according to the analyzed authors. Still in 2030, two thirds of the world population will live in cities, which will produce 80% of the planet’s GDP, with megacities appearing again in Asia, Latin America and Africa (UN 2017). The increase in the cost of living in these superclusters is certain, as well as in small and medium- -sized cities. However, it is in the global and millionaire cities where cutting- -edge urbanization occurs, although they are not the fastest growing cities in population terms, according to the UN (2017). Therefore, we bring here examples of these cities that become increasingly segregated.
Topic:: Demographics, Urbanization, Economy, Urban, Cities, and Segregation
Political Geography:: Brazil and Africa

1680. The Evaluation of Russia's Foreign Policy Towards Georgia Following the ‘Rose Revolution’

Author:: Ekaterine Lomia
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: For more than twenty-eight years, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russian-Georgian relations have been a substantial ground for mutual confrontation, sharp dispute, and a lack of trust. Continuous tensions and disagreements have adversely affected efforts to achieve a proper balance in bilateral relations between the neighboring countries and resulted in a number of direct and indirect confrontations. Whilst the Russian president seeks to restore Russia’s great power status, regain its past glory and control strategically important regions of the former Soviet space, Georgia, from the very first day of independence, tries to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity, develop modern state institutions, strengthen democratic values and integrate into the Euro-Atlantic structures. The paper aims to study Moscow’s current foreign policy strategy towards Georgia following the ‘Rose revolution’ and argues that Russia’s military intervention in Georgia, in August 2008, was a clear illustration of classical realism used by a great power in the XXI century. Russia actively uses hybrid warfare and regularly employs economic leverage on Georgia to eventually achieve its political ends in the Caucasus region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Georgia

1681. What Matters for Urban Women’s Work?

Author:: Shamindra Nath Roy and Partha Mukhopadhyay
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: India is one of the lowest globally in terms of female labour force participation (FLFP), ranking only better than Pakistan in South Asia. While the decline in FLFP in rural areas is starkly visible, the urban FLFP has been consistently low since the 1980s despite higher economic growth and increasing level of education among females. The economic cost of such low FLFP (16.8%) is huge and if, for instance, it could be raised to the level of FLFP in China (61.5%), it has the potential to raise India’s GDP up to 27%. This paper attempts to investigate the structural deficiencies behind this consistently low urban FLFP through a variety of perspectives, ranging from measuring the complexity of women’s work to the implications of caste, location and family structure. It finds factors like presence of female-friendly industries, provision of regular salaried jobs and policies that cater to women’s needs to work near home like availability of part-time work, can improve the situation, though prejudices arising from patriarchy require to be addressed to make these measures truly transformative and not palliative.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Inequality, and Economy
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1682. Poshan Abhiyaan

Author:: Meghna Paul and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The Poshan Abhiyaan earlier known as the National Nutrition Mission is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship scheme that aims to holistically address the prevalence of malnutrition in India through the use of technology, convergence, behavioural change, training, and capacity building. This brief uses government data to report on the following: Trends in GoI allocations, releases and expenditures; Trends in expenditure of selected individual components of Poshan Abhiyaan; Trends in participation by gender and activities conducted under the Mission.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Budget, Food Security, Economy, and Capacity
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

1683. The Future of Work: An India Perspective

Author:: A. Didar Singh
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: The ‘Future of Work’ is a hot topic today. Everybody has a view on it. It is happening and is a reality that society must learn to face. The seven billion people on this planet will have seven billion reactions to the future. We cannot understand or plan for these. We can, however, learn from them. We can at best try and capture the essence of the big picture, to appreciate the global agenda and outline the major forces at play. Employment is probably the single biggest issue across the world. This is because it is not so easily available and is getting more difficult. All governments promise to provide jobs, but the fear is that this may not come about. The fear is because of the march of technology. Technological changes have indeed threatened to disrupt jobs for the last 200 years and each time the doomsayers have been proven wrong. New jobs have replaced old ones and world economy has only prospered, especially in the last 70 years of globalisation. Unfortunately, this time the fear may be wellfounded, especially for the unskilled.
Topic:: Globalization, Science and Technology, Employment, Economy, and Work Culture
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1684. Yemen’s Accelerating Economic Woes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Since early 2015, when the onset of war led to the cessation of large-scale oil exports, Yemen has been almost completely dependent on three main external sources to secure foreign currency inflows and stimulate economic activity: foreign humanitarian aid, Saudi financial support to the Yemeni government, and – by far the most significant – remittances from Yemeni expatriates, most working in Saudi Arabia. All three of these foreign currency sources have dramatically declined in 2020. The Saudi response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, in concert with record low oil prices, led to historic economic contractions and spending cuts in the kingdom, in turn undermining the ability of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis to work there and send money home. This occurred alongside a steep decline in international donor funding for the Yemen relief effort and the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden effectively exhausting the US$2 billion Saudi deposit it received in 2018. Roughly half the population in Yemen was already food insecure before the onset of the current armed conflict. The general economic collapse the war precipitated led to millions more requiring emergency food assistance to survive. The current acute shortage of foreign currency sources has profound implications for the value of Yemen’s domestic currency, and the country’s ability to finance fuel and basic commodity imports, and is likely to lead to the rapid intensification of the humanitarian crisis. This paper presents policy recommendations to address this situation for the United Nations and other international stakeholders, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, as well as the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the de facto authorities in Sana’a (the armed Houthi movement, Ansar Allah).
Topic:: United Nations, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

1685. Hostage on the Red Sea – The Yemen Review Summer Edition, July-August 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Security, Economy, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Red Sea

1686. Battle for Marib – The Yemen Review, September 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Human Rights, Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

1687. The Riyadh Agreement’s Fading Promise – The Yemen Review, October 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Conflict, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

1688. Time for a New US Policy – The Yemen Review, November 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Economy, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

1689. War and Pandemic – The Yemen Review, April 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, Food Security, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

1690. A Grave Road Ahead – The Yemen Review, May 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, United Nations, Economy, Houthis, COVID-19, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

1691. The Eight Manifestations of GNH: Multiple Meanings of a Development Alternative

Author:: Ritu Verma
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: Despite growing recognition that GDP measures everything except deeper and meaningful aspects of life, conventional development approaches continue to centrally measure poverty, implement policy and operationalize practice in narrow economic and technical terms, without adequate attention paid to the holistic and interconnected nature of development as lived and experienced by those intended as its beneficiaries. The Royal Kingdom of Bhutan represents a rare context for the study and operationalization of a living development alternative that challenges GDP-metrics. The nation is best known for the articulation and practice of an innovative alternative and sustainable development path, exemplified in Gross National Happiness (GNH). In the contemporary context, it continues to be at the forefront of developing and advancing GNH as a unique and holistic development approach that values happiness and wellbeing of people and sentient beings. However, GNH is prone to popular misunderstandings of its concept, principles and manifestations within Bhutan, and subject to superficial and problematic scholarly analysis, hurried comprehension and limited due diligence in the international context. This paper makes a modest but concerted effort to respond to the dilemmas and challenges of understanding facing GNH by exploring its epistemological and historical foundations, and disentangling multiple meanings manifested in eight different forms. In doing so, it aims to contribute greater clarity to a growing body of multifarious writings on the subject, and more specifically, to an emerging body of scholarly literature on GNH by shedding explanatory light to the way it is conceptualized, operationalized, practiced, understood, internalized, and continuously undergoing change as it is refined and deepened over time.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Sustainability, and Gross National Happiness (GNH)
Political Geography:: South Asia and Bhutan

1692. Prospects of a Hydrogen Economy with Chinese Characteristics

Author:: Kevin Tu
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This study assesses the prospects of a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. Against the backdrop of an escalating US-China trade war and the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, key Chinese stakeholders become increasingly interested in moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward. During the first six months of 2020 alone, 37 policies in support of the hydrogen economy have been published by various level governments, including 7 by central government authorities, and 30 by local governments. Shandong alone issued 6 hydrogen supporting policies, followed with 5 by Guangdong. In sum, hydrogen economy development not only gains traction in China, but also is in great danger of overheating. The ambition in China is to expand hydrogen production and create new end-uses: in the transport segment (e.g. 1 million fuel cell electric vehicles – FCEVs – and 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030), but possibly also, in other hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement manufacturing or in the electricity storage segment (Power to X). Hydrogen production from low carbon electricity could bring many benefits, notably to address curtailments of renewable electricity from wind, solar and hydro. It could also be blended into the nation-wide gas grid especially for low-concentration hydrogen (e.g. 5-10%). Until recently, China’s interest in developing the hydrogen economy has not been primarily triggered by the decarbonization objective. Nevertheless, on September 22, 2020, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced that China aims to peak national carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Given the significant amount of carbon emissions reduction implied by the above announcement, hydrogen is now expected to play a much more important role to drastically decrease the country’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over time. China’s very large hydrogen production from fossil fuels, mainly coal, would make it quite challenging to consider decarbonizing the current uses of hydrogen. What decisively drives the current interest into hydrogen is innovation and technological leadership on the one hand, which China can achieve through industrial clusters and economies of scale, and energy security on the other: reducing dependence on imported oil and gas, with rising importance of air pollution control- and decarbonization-related considerations. It remains to be seen whether China can avoid the shortcomings of its electric vehicles (EV) supporting policies as it aims to boost a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. A simplified SWOT analysis presented in the report identifies the most important strength, weakness, opportunity and threat for hydrogen economy development in China: Strength - ability to significantly bring down unit manufacturing cost through industrial network clustering and economy of scale. Weakness – lag far behind advanced economies in key hydrogen-related technologies. Opportunity – enthusiasm on hydrogen economy by local governments against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. Threat - looming danger of global supply chain decoupling caused by an escalating US-China trade war. In order to move the hydrogen economy agenda forward, a preliminary “to do list” for Chinese decision-makers in this field would include: A coordinated national mechanism should be established at the central government level to lay out principles for moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward in China. Comprehensive and transparent statistical reporting and accounting throughout the Chinese hydrogen value chain should be established. In the hydrogen production segment, renewable hydrogen should be prioritized for intensive Research and Development (R&D) and deployment in the near future, and greening China's existing hydrogen flow should be on the Chinese government's policy radar especially in the longer term. In the hydrogen storage and transport segment, national and local government should continuously direct subsidies towards hydrogen refueling stations, and also consider to encourage low concentration blending of hydrogen into China’s natural gas network. In the hydrogen consumption segment, China should selectively focus on R&D and deployment of advanced hydrogen end-use technologies notably for cement and steel, ideally coupled with expansion of the horizon of national energy planning framework. Opening up the Chinese market to better integrate technology innovations in advanced economies and manufacturing-related competitive advantages of the Chinese economy, aiming to create a win-win situation between China and the international community.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1693. Strangers to strategic partners: Thirty years of Sino-Saudi relations

Author:: Jonathan Fulton
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Saudi Arabia. Over the past three decades, the bilateral relationship has transitioned from one of marginal importance for both countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership, largely on the back of a trade relationship founded on energy. This report begins with a brief historical overview of Sino-Saudi relations, describing how the two countries transitioned from mutual hostility to diplomatic relations, and then how political and economic cooperation strengthened the relationship to the point that they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016. It then discusses how the partnership has developed through the 1+2+3 cooperation pattern, especially through projects linking China’s Digital Silk Road with Saudi vision 2030, as well as nascent levels of security cooperation. It ends with an analysis of the bi- lateral relationship within the context of the US-Sino-Saudi triangle: How does it affect each state’s larger strategic interests, and can issues where their interests diverge put a ceiling on future Sino-Saudi ties?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Business, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

1694. Transforming Indian agriculture: A policy framework to guide US-India partnership

Author:: D. Narain
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Agriculture has formed the backbone of India’s economy for many decades and remains crucial to providing food security for the country’s growing population. It constitutes a major pillar of India’s economic growth and a significant contributor to its growing exports sector. Indian agriculture is the country’s largest employer with one hundred and forty million smallholder farmers and an additional sixty million people employed directly or indirectly in farming operations. Together, these two hundred million people represent more than 40 percent of India’s working population. Though India is one of the top five agricultural economies in the world, Indian agriculture is at a serious inflection point. This sector faces multiple challenges, including lagging yields in key crops as compared to global averages1, restricted market access, lack of competitive prices for produce, and limited water availability. The latter leaves farmers to rely on rain-fed agriculture severely impacted by climate change. All these factors have eroded farm incomes, created increased pressure on government subsidies, and affected rural livelihoods. The growth and success of agriculture is important for India’s long-term economic growth, enhancing its global and export competitiveness, improving rural livelihoods, and creating a sustainable agricultural eco-system. This brief outlines the policy framework required to make these goals a reality. In order to build effectively on these amendments, India needs a broader set of policy reforms targeting everything from farm input to output in order to facilitate a complete transformation of Indian agriculture. In addition to policy reforms, the transformation requires strong collaboration among all players in the agri-value chain to achieve three key goals: To help Indian farmers increase crop productivity with better yields per hectare of cultivable land. This has to be done while driving sustainable agricultural practices including water conservation and improved soil health. To enhance farm profitability and generate sustainable farm incomes. To deliver rural prosperity by helping job creation and creating better lives for farming communities.
Topic:: Agriculture, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1695. COVID-19’s Impact on Bangladesh Economy

Author:: Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Avinno Faruk
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: This BIGD study examines the impact of COVID-19’s impact on the major economic and financial indicators of the economy of Bangladesh, including production, wages, price levels, advances, bills, investments, remittances and foreign trade, using the secondary data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank (BB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). In addition to the recent impact of the global economic meltdown, Bangladesh also experienced severe demand contraction in the local economy; this exacerbated the overall economic crisis of the country. Considering the duration and severity of COVID-19, we examine its impact on major economic and financial indicators of the Bangladesh economy and recommended policy responses for recovery, based on the analysis. Both domestic and international demands declined due to the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, and, thus, producers responded by lowering output to minimize the loss, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Findings reveal that nominal Wage Rate Index (WRI) in the industry and service sectors fell in recent times, which now appear to be recovering. The national inflation rate has not been affected much based on point-to-point changes. Food inflation fell in May 2020 and stood at 5.09 percent, but it appears to have risen recently. Non-food inflation rates have been falling over the last six months from April-September 2020. Prudent measures should include constant monitoring and adapting to the latest developments in major trading partners and host countries to mitigate the economic losses caused. Bank credit would play a key role in the ongoing and upcoming recovery process, as the government has opted for a credit-led stimulus package. However, as the virus is yet to be contained and an effective vaccine for it is yet to be made available in Bangladesh everywhere and to everyone, its economic repercussions are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Development, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

1696. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises in Bangladesh

Author:: Asadul Islam, Atiya Rahman, and Rafia Nisat
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Like other economic players, the novel pandemic severely hit small businesses—the larger source of growth and employment but also the most vulnerable sector—by disrupting national and international business networks, supply chain, and demand. To understand the evolving state of small enterprises during pre, par, and post-lockdown periods, BIGD in collaboration with Monash University, Australia conducted a survey on small enterprises, mostly light-engineering firms, and young workers across 18 districts in Bangladesh. The study finds that lockdown measures caused the majority of small enterprises to shut down, and during the early period of relaxing the lockdown, one-third of the enterprises were operating at limited capacity. Demand drop and the burden of fixed costs to run the businesses were the prominent reasons behind the drastic fall in profit. As a result, workers were losing jobs and the gender gap was widening, because female labour-intensive work (i.e. beauty parlour, tailoring) was affected harder. Other findings of concern include the emerging vulnerabilities for the enterprises with lower endowment and poor access to government stimulus packages and other financial support. The study emphasises on the importance of concrete targeting criteria and support delivery platforms to assist more vulnerable enterprises. Finally, it highlights that the enterprises that received BRAC’s intensive training on occupational health and safety (OHS), along with business training and financial linkages, made double profit compared to their counterparts. However, the absolute amount of profit was substantially lower for both groups, compared to their pre-COVID profit, indicating the importance of scaling up such intensive training to create more resilient enterprises in such crises.
Topic:: Development, Employment, Economy, Business, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

1697. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 and Policy Implications for Bangladesh

Author:: Sultan Hafeez Rahman, Abdur Razzaque, Jillur Rahman, and Wasel Bin Shadat
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented health and economic crisis for global economies, including Bangladesh. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic as reflected in a massive loss of human life worldwide, drastic decline in economic activities and employment, huge pressure on public health and other support services, social and physical distancing, etc. has been devastating. Since the first confirmed case of infection in March 2020, Bangladesh, like many other countries, had to consider some extraordinary measures including, amongst others, closure of all educational institutions, enforcement of economic shutdown measures and gradual reopening of economic activities, rolling out a stimulus package for business enterprises, etc. This study is motivated by the fact that understanding the economywide impact of Covid-19 has been challenging in Bangladesh. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model – a multi-region/multi-country computable general equilibrium comparative static framework – is utilized in this study to explore the potential impacts of COVID-19 induced disruptions for Bangladesh under three different alternative – low-shock, medium shock and high-shock scenarios. It outlines the transmission mechanisms through which the Bangladesh economy is being affected to assess the impact on major macroeconomic variables and sectoral outputs. These results are then incorporated into the social accounting matrix for Bangladesh to simulate the likely income and poverty effects for various types of households. This study also explores the likely impact of government support measures through the stimulus package in mitigating the adverse consequences.
Topic:: Economy, Public Policy, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

1698. Latin America and the New Global Order

Author:: Antonella Mori
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Amid the coronavirus pandemic, global geopolitical relations are being shaken to their roots, and Latin America is no different. The region is experiencing new transformations in political, economic, and societal terms. In turn, all these rapid changes are having an impact on how Latin American countries shape their own foreign policies, and on how they adapt to the challenges of an increasingly multipolar world. How are the US, China, and the EU competing in terms of political alliances and economic projection on the Latin American region? And how are some of the main Latin American countries (namely Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela) contributing to shape these new regional dynamics?
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America

1699. Maritime Challenges: Decarbonization and Geopolitical Tensions

Author:: Clarissa Lins and Guilherme Ferreira
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: The maritime sector is key to the international economy and trade, accounting for almost ¾ of total freight activity. Shipping is also the most energy-efficient way to transport cargo. “In the coming years, structural changes are expected in the global economy and maritime scenario”, pointed out the speakers during the event “Maritime challenges: decarbonization and geopolitical tensions” held in partnership between CEBRI and the Norwegian Consulate General in Rio de Janeiro.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Maritime, Trade, Shipping, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Brazil and Global Focus

1700. China and COVID-19: a shock to its economy, a metaphor for its development

Author:: George Magnus
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The Chinese government’s draconian actions to control the coronavirus seem to be producing a remarkable economic contraction. As so many are unable to attend or resume work at the moment, the government’s palliative economic measures may gain little traction. Although the demand shock will eventually fade, other longer-term issues will surely endure. The supply shock will be less obvious but more corrosive. The government’s questionable conduct in managing the public health crisis has unveiled significant features about governance in Xi’s China that can be mapped on to China’s development. While this crisis is the biggest challenge Xi has faced, there is little doubt that he will survive it, champion the party’s role in the nation’s rescue, and feel emboldened to continue with his authoritarian governance. Yet it is this that, in the long run, will prove incompatible with China’s economic development ambitions.
Topic:: Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS