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9782. International Student Mobility Flows and COVID-19 Realities
- Author:
- Leah Mason
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The flow of international students crossing borders to pursue educational opportunities has been significantly affected by the COVID‐19 pandemic, causing higher education systems worldwide to consider the context and realities of global academic mobility before and after the health crisis. This joint paper by the Institute of International Education (IIE) and IC3 analyzes significant international student mobility trends before the COVID‐19 pandemic, the role of the United States and other host countries in offering international students academic opportunities, and the increased competitiveness among countries to attract international students. The paper will provide an overview of the global mobility flows to and from major world regions in the 2019/2020 academic year. The paper will then consider the effects of COVID‐19 on global student mobility and how the pandemic has comparatively affected international students and the countries that serve as their hosts.
- Topic:
- Mobility, Higher Education, Students, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
9783. Economic Value of Peace 2021: Measuring the global economic impact of violence and conflict
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The comprehensive methodology includes 18 indicators covering the direct and indirect costs of violence, and the expenditures to contain and prevent violence. The model also includes a multiplier for the direct costs to account for the additional economic activity resulting from a redirection of these costs to more productive pursuits. The economic impact of violence provides an empirical basis to better understand the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population. It uses the best available data to calculate the overall impact. However, not all categories of violence have reliable data, therefore preventing their inclusion in the model. Some examples of costs excluded from the model are counter-terrorism and intelligence agency expenditures, insurance costs, lost business opportunities and family violence. As such, the estimates presented in this report are considered highly conservative. In 2019, the economic impact of violence decreased by $64 billion from the previous year. This was the equivalent of a 0.4 per cent decrease and was largely driven by reductions in Armed Conflict. This fall predominantly occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region and was driven by fewer terror attacks, conflict deaths, and population displacement costs. This is a continued reversal of previous periods where between 2012 and 2017, the global economic impact of violence rose by 12.2 per cent to peak at $14.8 trillion. This is the second consecutive year of improvement.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9784. Global Peace Index 2021: Measuring peace in a complex world
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 15th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive datadriven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security, the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and the degree of Militarisation. This year’s results show that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.07 per cent. This is the ninth deterioration in peacefulness in the last thirteen years, with 87 countries improving, and 73 recording deteriorations; however, the change in score is the second smallest in the history of the index. The 2021 GPI reveals a world in which the conflicts and crises that emerged in the past decade have begun to abate, only to be replaced with a new wave of tension and uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions between many of the major powers.
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Global Security, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9785. Business & Peace 2021
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Rather than asking what businesses can do for peace, this study differentiates itself by focusing on what peace can offer businesses. The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) sees this as an important, but missing step in business analysis. In order for the private sector to engage with peacebuilding, investors first need to see the benefits of peace to their investment decisions. This work shows that economic performance can be predicted by movements in the same socio-economic developmental factors that affect peacefulness. These conditions are known as Positive Peace. The global economic impact of violence was $14.4 trillion in 2020. This is broadly equivalent to the entire economy of China. If humanity were to reduce violence by ten per cent per annum, the savings of $1.4 trillion would broadly equate to adding an economy the size of Russia’s or Brazil’s every year to the global fold. The burden of violence on an economy is self-evident. However, this report focusses on the converse perspective: countries that improve their underlying conditions, as gauged by IEP’s measures of peace, create the potential for a significant peace dividend for business.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Business, Peace, and International Business
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9786. Mexico Peace Index 2021: Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The 2021 report is the eighth edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis and estimates of the economic impact of violence on the country. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 3.5 percent in 2020. After four years of successive deteriorations, this marks a change in trend following the sharp increases in violence recorded between 2015 and 2018. This change can be traced to well before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Homicide and firearms crime rates peaked in July 2018 and have since been gradually declining. Other crime rates began to fall in mid-2019, which also preceded the pandemic. While improvements were occurring prior to the onset of COVID-19, further reductions in specific types of violence in 2020 followed the implementation of public health measures and stay-at-home orders. Crimes typically associated with people’s everyday movements — such as robberies, assaults, kidnappings and extortion — all recorded notable improvements in 2020.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economics, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
9787. Labour Reforms in the Indian State of Rajasthan: a boon or a bane?
- Author:
- Sourabh Paul and Diti Goswami
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- The authors examine the impact of labour law deregulations in the Indian state of Rajasthan on plant employment and performance. In 2014, after a long time, Rajasthan was the first Indian state that introduced labour reforms in the Industrial Disputes Act (1947), the Factories Act (1948), the Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act (1970), and the Apprentices Act (1961). Exploiting this unique quasi-natural experiment, the authors apply a difference-in-difference framework using the Annual Survey of Industries longitudinal data of India’s manufacturing establishments. Their results show that reforms had an unintended consequence of the decline in labour use. Also, worryingly, the flexibility resulted in a disproportionate decline in the directly employed worker. Evidence suggests that the reforms positively impact the value-added and productivity of the establishments. The strength of these effects varies depending on the underlying industry and reform structure. These findings prove robust to a set of specifications.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Reform, Employment, and Regulation
- Political Geography:
- India
9788. Can a Machine Learn Democracy?
- Author:
- Rajendran Narayanan, Sakina Dhorajiwala, and Chakradhar Buddha
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) provides up to 100 days of work in a year for every rural household at a minimum wage. The Act has several landmark worker-centric provisions. For the implementation of MGNREGA, for the first time in the country, a transaction-based Management Information System (MIS) has been made available in the public domain; a feather in the cap of transparency. However, there are several critical questions to be examined in this regard. Our main focus in this article is to explore the tensions between technocracy and democratic values/participation in the context of MGNREGA and its associated MIS. We use our action research on information-based interventions in several states to examine whether the MGNREGA MIS incorporates democratic values, whether it has been inclusive or if it has widened the existing inequities. We use specific examples to illustrate how such an information system has been used to subvert the legal rights of workers. We underscore that technological interventions, with a compassionate human-centred design are potentially powerful tools for transparency, accountability, and grievance redressal. However, technology alone can neither enhance participatory democracy nor reduce socio-economic inequalities.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Democracy, Employment, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- India
9789. Tracking Employment Trajectories during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Indian Panel Data
- Author:
- Rosa Abraham, Amit Basole, and Surbhi Kesar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- Using the CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, we track a panel of households prior to the lockdown (in December 2019), during the lockdown (in April 2020) and afterwards (in August 2020) to investigate the employment and income effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated containment measures. We identify four distinct employment experiences during the pandemic for those who were in the workforce just prior to the lockdown: no loss of employment (“No effect”), loss of employment followed by recovery (“Recovery”), loss of employment with no recovery (“No recovery”), and a delayed loss of employment (“Delayed job loss”). Overall, 54% of individuals experienced no job loss, while 30% lost work in April but recovered by August. 12% had not recovered employment as of August 2020. We analyse how these trajectories vary across different social and economic characteristics to quantify contractions and recovery in the labour market and the extent to which the vulnerabilities vary across different social groups, employment arrangements, and industries. We find that women were substantially more likely to lose employment as well as less likely to recover employment. Job loss was also more severe for lower castes as compared to intermediate and upper castes and for daily wage workers as compared to regular wage workers. Younger workers were particularly vulnerable to job loss compared to older workers. Having lost employment in April, younger workers were also less likely to recover employment in August. Finally, for those who were employed in both December 2019 and August 2020, we examine the changes in employment arrangements. We find a much greater frequency of transitions from wage employment to self-employment, more than that in the seasonally comparable period last year (Dec 2018 to Aug 2019). Our results call for urgent additional fiscal measures to counteract these effects.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, Pandemic, Job Creation, and Consumerism
- Political Geography:
- India
9790. A Short Note on Debt-Neutral Fiscal Policy
- Author:
- Zico Dasgupta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- One of the central concerns against increasing expenditures in the recent period has been the possibility of an adverse impact on debt-GDP ratio. Once stability of debt-ratio is regarded as a policy-objective, the aggregate expenditure that is consistent with the stability condition gets determined by the given level of output growth rate and revenue receipts. Instead of perceiving expenditures to be determined by the debt-stability condition, this short note attempts to lay bare the conditions under which the debt-stability condition is restored despite increasing the growth rate of non-capital primary expenditure to a targeted level. The targeted level of growth rate of non-capital expenditures can be perceived to be one which compensates for the income loss of labour during the pandemic. In contrast to conventional wisdom, the possibility of increasing such expenditures is explored not by reducing capital expenditures, but rather by increasing the latter. Using the multiplier value of capital expenditures estimated by the RBI, it is argued that the debt-ratio would remain unchanged despite increasing the growth rate of non capital primary expenditure if the capital expenditures growth rate is allowed to increase in a specific proportion.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, GDP, Employment, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- India
9791. Technical & Vocational Education and Training in India: Lacking Vision, Strategy and Coherence
- Author:
- Santosh Mehrotra
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- This paper briefly examines the performance of each of the five pillars of India’s TVET ecosystem. It also discusses the poor design and implementation of a national vocational qualification framework. It goes to discuss the latest development in the field of education: the National Education Policy 2020 and its view on TVET, and finds it seriously wanting. The paper argues that if India does not want its tertiary education system to be overwhelmed by the massification of school education that occurred since early noughties, it must divert increasing numbers of secondary graduates to vocational education and training. Together with a rising number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector, to which India’s youth aspire to, strengthening vocational education offers the prospect of India potentially realizing its demographic dividend, in the same way that many East Asian countries. If India’s TVET system continues to lack vision, strategy and coherence to underpin the country’s aspiration to become a high human development country, we risk frittering away our dividend.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Training, and Vocational Training
- Political Geography:
- India
9792. Explaining COVID-19 Lockdown, Employment and Migration in India: Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Purna Chandra Parida and Yogesh Suri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- This paper makes an attempt to do an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on employment and migration in India. The analysis is based on up-to-date facts and figures available in the public domain on economic growth, employment and migration. Using the employment elasticity approach, the study estimates employment loss during 2020-21 owing to the negative impact of COVID-19 on economic activities. The results of the study suggest that the country may witness job loss with the tune of 18.5 18.8 million in the current fiscal year. This in turn would shoot up the unemployment rate from 5.8% in 2018-19 to 8.9% in 2020-21, warranting a coordinated and focused approach from both the Central and State governments to uplift the confidence of the people and bring back the lost jobs, particularly the migrant workers. The study also emphasises on Central government’s urgent attention and action plan for uplifting the rural economy in order to revive India’s economy in the short run.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- India
9793. Covid-19 Crisis: An Indictment of India’s Informal Economy
- Author:
- Jenny Sulfath and Balu Sunilraj
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to look at the ways informality is conceptualized in India and argues that the problems with the laws pertaining to informal labour are not simply an implementation issue, but the design of the labour laws itself exclude informal labour. While reviewing the history of labour laws in India and the social history of labour participation, the paper also examines the current change in the political approach to labour by changing the labour laws in the pretext of the pandemic. Focussing on the changes made in labour laws in Madhya Pradesh the paper argues that these changes would further informalise the workers intensifying the crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, and Informal Economy
- Political Geography:
- India
9794. Down and Out? The Gendered Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on India’s Labour Market
- Author:
- Rosa Abraham, Amit Basole, and Surbhi Kesar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic has created unprecedented disruptions in labour markets across the world including loss of employment and decline in incomes. Using panel data from India, we investigate the differential impact of the shock on labour market outcomes for male and female workers. We find that, conditional on being in the workforce prior to the pandemic, women were seven times more likely to lose work during the nationwide lockdown, and conditional on losing work, eleven times more likely to not return to work subsequently, compared to men. Using logit regressions on a sample stratified by gender, we find that daily wage and young workers, whether men or women, were more likely to face job loss. Education shielded male workers from job loss, whereas highly educated female workers were more vulnerable to job loss. Marriage had contrasting effects for men and women, with married women less likely to return to work and married men more likely to return to work. Religion and gender intersect to exacerbate the disproportionate impact, with Muslim women more likely to not return to work, unlike Muslim men where we find religion having no significant impact. Finally, for those workers who did return to work, we find that a large share of men in the workforce moved to self-employment or daily wage work, in agriculture, trade or construction. For women, on the other hand, there is limited movement into alternate employment arrangements or industries. This suggests that typical ‘fallback’ options for employment do not exist for women. During such a shock, women are forced to exit the workforce whereas men negotiate across industries and employment arrangements.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- India
9795. How Much is a Government Job in India Worth?
- Author:
- Kunal Mangal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- Government jobs in India are valuable, not just because they pay relatively higher wages, but also because they provide many valuable amenities, such as lifetime tenure, access to bribes, and prestige. Does the value of these amenities compete with the nominal wage itself? I use the observed search behavior of candidates preparing for highly structured competitive exams for government jobs to infer a lower bound on the total value of a government job, including amenities. Based on a sample of 120 male candidates preparing for state-level civil service exams in Pune, Maharashtra, I estimate a total value of at least 425,000 INR per month. This estimate implies that the amenity value of a government job is at least 81% of total compensation. The high amenity value is not driven by misinformed beliefs about the nominal wage, nor by a high value placed on the process of studying itself. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for policy and the questions it raises for future research.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Employment, Public Sector, Job Creation, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- India
9796. Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go? Labour Market Transitions in India
- Author:
- Rahul Menon and Paaritosh Nath
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- Using two rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) covering the periods 2017-18 and 2018-19, we construct a panel of urban Indian individuals aged 15 to 65, and analyse the dynamics of their participation – or non-participation – in the labour force. We construct transition probabilities to study the movement of individuals through three distinct statuses – employment, unemployment and non-participation – at the aggregate level and for different demographic groups. We find evidence of considerable movements from the labour force to non-participation; there exists a significant discouraged worker effect as well as a pronounced movement from employment outside the labour force, specifically for women. A majority of those unemployed in the beginning of the year remain so at the end of the year, indicating the presence of long-term unemployment. The reduction in unemployment rates from 2017-18 to 2018-19 hides significant weaknesses in Indian urban labour markets. This study represents an original contribution to the field of Indian labour economics, given the paucity of large-scale studies of the dynamics of Indian labour.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Market, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- India
9797. Improving Survey Quality using Para Data: Lessons from the India Working Survey
- Author:
- Deepti Goel, Rosa Abraham, and Rahul Lahoti
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- The efficacy of survey-based policy recommendations is primarily dictated by the quality of data collected in the first place. Is the survey truly representative of the population it claims to characterise? Are respondents voicing their true opinions or are they playing to the gallery? Did enumerator bias creep into the data? These are questions that most users of surveys have, but are typically brushed aside in the race to get the analyses out. While there are no foolproof measures to ensure that survey data are authentic, certain steps can be taken to improve their dependability. One such is the use of what is called ‘para data’ (data about the process of data collection), to streamline enumerator practices, and thereby improve the reliability of the data being collected. This report details our experience of using para data to improve the quality of the India Working Survey (IWS).
- Topic:
- Economics, Employment, Survey, Data, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- India
9798. Financing Fiscal Support under Alternative Policy Frameworks
- Author:
- Zico Dasgupta
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- This paper perceives fiscal support as a policy instrument and examines alternative policy frameworks that can simultaneously stabilize labour income, output and debt-GDP ratio. The need to stabilize labour income over and above output follows from the possibility of income growth rate of labour falling below output growth rate. This paper points out the limitations of sound finance regime in meeting these targets and proposes an alternative policy framework which is termed as Debt-Neutral Functional Finance with Fiscal Support (DNFS). The DNFS framework highlights the role of development financial institutions and the need for a floor level of corporate tax-GDP ratio.
- Topic:
- Economics, Employment, Fiscal Policy, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- India
9799. Policy Brief 1: Building Capacity for Development of Factoring in Africa to accelerate trade development and support AfCFTA
- Author:
- The African Capacity Building Foundation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief developed by the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) and the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) explores the opportunities offered by factoring which provides a solution to address the financing gap for Small and Medium enterprises (SMEs) to support Africa’s structural transformation particularly in trade development as part of the African Continental Free trade Agreement (AfCFTA). The aim of the Policy Brief is to examine the capacity imperatives for the development and use of factoring as an innovative trade financing tool to advance the AfCFTA. The Policy Brief notes that Africa performance in the factoring market needs to improve significantly based on a number of key indicators – such as share in global factoring, including international factoring, innovation such as reverse factoring, number of factoring companies, turn-over per factoring companies and factoring GDP penetration. The Policy Brief also highlights that Africa’s factoring volume of about US$27 billion representing a share representing a share of 0.84% in the global factoring market of approximately US$3,300 billion a year in 2019 is extremely low. It therefore argues that Africa needs a coordinated approach to capacity development to successfully develop and use factoring.
- Topic:
- Development, Economic Growth, Trade, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Africa
9800. Factoring in Africa to support trade development: Challenges and opportunities for growth through capacity development.
- Author:
- The African Capacity Building Foundation
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
- Abstract:
- This occasional paper is about factoring, known as the selling or transferring of accounts receivable to secure funds that are immediately available. The process provides a solution to address the financing gap for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to support trade development as part of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and Africa’s structural transformation agenda. The study is based on an extensive review of the literature and an analysis of secondary data from FCI database and other materials collected on factoring to identify key issues, trend, progress, drivers, and barriers affecting factoring in leading African countries. The paper shows that factoring represents an alternative source of financing for African businesses to increase intra-African trade under the AfCFTA. Other findings include low Africa’s share in global factoring and growth rate in factoring, and low factoring GDP penetration rates of leading African countries. The paper notes that Africa’s performance in the factoring market needs to improve significantly based on a number of key indicators. However, factoring activities are projected to reach US$50 billion by 2025 in Africa with a number of small-sized factoring companies emerging in other African countries. For this to be achieved, a coordinated approach to capacity development is needed to address the barriers identified.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Economic Growth, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa