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11801. The Challenges of Redressing Violations of Economic and Social Rights in the Aftermath of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Giulia Ciliberto
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis represented an occasion to assess whether the international, European Union, and national systems provide adequate remedies for violation of socio-economic rights caused by austerity measures. Victims of these violations tried to obtain a remedy by lodging complaints before national judicial organs, the Court of Justice of the European Union, international human rights bodies (such the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the ILO Committee on Freedom of Association and the European Committee on Social Rights), and the European Court of Human Rights. This article addresses whether one (or more) of these venues indicted adequate remedies of violations of socio-economic rights and whether these mechanisms could have adopted a different (and more human rights- oriented) adjudicative approach with the view of enhancing the effectiveness of socio-economic rights enshrined in international treaties. The paper assumes that the adequacy of the relief depends on two elements. The first is the collective nature of socio-economic rights, which requires structural or systemic remedies rather than individual ones. The second is the need to preserve States’ economic soundness in order to allow Countries to satisfy their international obligations, namely securing a minimum essential level of socio- economic rights and their progressive realization. Against these assumptions, remedies should benefit the victimized class as a whole, alongside avoiding major distributional or unintended consequences to the detriment of public finances. The investigation focuses on the case law and pronouncements concerning Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The paper reaches the conclusion that constitutional review of austerity measures is the most adequate and effective venue to address such sensitive matters. This is especially true where constitutional courts rely on international conventions protecting socio-economic rights as per se parameters of constitutionality or through consistent interpretation – viz. by construing the national bill of rights in line with treaty-based socio-economic rights.
Topic:
Debt, European Union, Economic Cooperation, Socioeconomics, and Economic Rights
Political Geography:
Greece, Spain, and Portugal

11802. The Soft Touch of International Financial Regulation: Status, Flaws and Future

Author:
Niall O'Shaughnessy
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
The 2008 global financial crisis focused attention on the relationship between the behaviour of international financial institutions and the rules they follow. Many banks in the US and Europe failed, in part, due to their inability to absorb the fallout of the US mortgage market collapse. If international financial institutions could not protect themselves from the cycles of the market, how come regulators were unable to do so either? The most relevant instrument of international financial regulation for understanding the 2008 crisis is the Basel Accords, the rules that specify how much capital a bank should always hold in reserve. However, these rules are ‘soft law’ and so, non-binding. It is a myth of course that soft law is the only way to regulate international finance, as many scholars argue. Despite numerous rounds of reform, the Basel Accords have always been inadequate. The purpose of this paper is to account for the flaws of the Basel Accords and the role that soft law plays in creating those flaws. This paper also analyses the competing theories behind the rise of soft law within financial regulation and the ‘political economy’ explanation is endorsed. The final section of the paper discusses the future of financial regulation and soft law, as well as highlighting innovations from outside the hard/soft law dichotomy and outside the Global North. This paper concludes by stating that the theory behind soft law does not play out in practice within finance and that it remains in place because it suits the interests of large institutions and powerful states. At the same time, a return to Bretton Woods or a new World Financial Organization is problematic and, as such, we must look beyond the hard/soft law debate and embrace the work of the Global South and East.
Topic:
Markets, Financial Crisis, Regulation, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11803. The Evolution of the Prohibition of Genocide: From Natural Law Enthusiasm to Lackadaisical Judicial Perfunctoriness – And Back Again?

Author:
Julia Klaus
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
International legal scholarship and practice have reached a point where it is undisputed that the prohibition of genocide has the status of jus cogens and entails erga omnes obligations. It is, however, astonishing how little academic focus has been dedicated to the normative development leading to this extraordinary rank. In a legal regime with as little hierarchical structure as public international law, examining the birth process of such a norm promises considerable insights into normative formation in general and may inform jurisprudential theories on the nature of international law. This article illustrates the evolution of the prohibition of genocide by outlining the way to the 1948 UN Genocide Convention and the later interpretations of the norm. It traces the origin of the genocide prohibition to naturalistic ideas of overarching laws of humanity in international law and follows its development into the early 21st century. An analysis of international jurisprudence reveals that, after the jus cogens status of the prohibition of genocide and its erga omnes dimension had been settled, international judges handled the norm in a surprisingly lackadaisical and perfunctory manner. The very recent ICJ order on provisional measures in the Myanmar Genocide case potentially marks a return towards a deeper focus on moral facts determining the prohibition that point to naturalistic theories persisting, notwithstanding the positivistic mainstream approaches to international law. The article contributes to a more accurate picture of and greater academic interest in these naturalistic undercurrents.
Topic:
Genocide, International Cooperation, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11804. Perspectives for a New International Crime Against the Environment: International Criminal Responsibility for Environmental Degradation under the Rome Statute

Author:
Ammar Bustami and Marie-Christine Hecken
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
This article draws attention to the need of a reform of the environmental protection by means of international criminal law as enshrined in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. After giving a short overview of the contemporary environmental protection in war- and peacetime offered by international criminal law, it becomes clear that international criminal law fails to succeed at offering sufficient environmental protection. This paper outlines that there is no convincing reason for a differentiated approach in international criminal law to environmental damage in wartime and in peacetime, and that a shift from an anthropocentric to an ecocentric approach would positively contribute to a more effective protection of the environment. It is therefore argued for the introduction of a new integral and ecocentric international crime against the environment in the Rome Statute. The paper then elaborates on existing proposals on such a new crime against the environment before some proper observations on the exact contours of the crime are made. A focus lies on the new crime’s threshold of seriousness as well as on the necessary mens rea requirements. The insufficiency of the contemporary legal framework and the merits of a new crime against the environment are exemplified by an archetype example of peacetime environmental damage, the Chevron/Texaco oil spill scenario in Ecuador.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and International Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11805. The European Court of Human Rights Through the Looking Glass of Gender: An Evaluation

Author:
Natalie Alkiviadou and Andrea Manoli
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
Gender equality is of paramount importance for a functioning democracy and for economic growth. It is a central tenet of human rights law and has seen significant developments on the legislative, judicial, and policy levels of the Council of Europe. Through a mélange of theory, legislation, and jurisprudential analysis, this paper will assess developments in the European Court of Human Rights’ approach to the issue of gender equality. This will be achieved through a survey of case law involving domestic violence, child-bearing, and the wearing of religious dress by women. The paper will demonstrate that, despite the existence of significant milestones in the ambit of promoting gender equality, and, notwithstanding effective advancements made by this body, particularly vis-à- vis domestic violence case law, improvements to its approach remain necessary. More specifically, on one level, the Court denounces and works against gender inequality and discrimination but, on another, consciously or unconsciously, its approach and findings are marred by its own stereotypes, patriarchal influences, misconceptions, and preconceptions about what gender equality actually is and how it should be pursued.
Topic:
Gender Issues, International Cooperation, Economic Growth, Violence, and Equality
Political Geography:
Europe

11806. Essential Work: Using A Social Reproduction Lens to Investigate the Re-Organisation of Work During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Sara Stevano, Rosimina Ali, and Merle Jamieson
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
COVID-19 has shaken a foundational pillar of global capitalism: the organisation of work. Whilst workers have commonly been categorised based on skills, during the pandemic the ‘essential worker’ categorisation has taken prominence. This paper explores the concept of essential work from a global feminist social reproduction perspective. The global perspective is complemented by a zoom-in on Mozambique as a low-income country in the Global South, occupying a peripheral position in global and regional economies and with a large share of vulnerable and essential workers. We show that the meaning of essential work is more ambiguous and politicised than it may appear and, although it can be used as a basis to reclaim the value of socially reproductive work, its transformative potential hinges on the possibility to encompass the most precarious and transnational dimensions of (re)production.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Feminism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Global South

11807. Rwanda’s Agricultural Transformation Revisited: Stagnating Food Production, Systematic Overestimation, and a Flawed Performance Contract System

Author:
Sebastian Heinen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Sustained productivity growth in the agricultural sector is a key component of a country’s path out of poverty. The quantitative development of Rwanda’s agriculture in recent years has been widely regarded as a success story and as further evidence for the effectiveness of its government to bring about sustained socio-economic progress. However, simple statistical analysis of publicly available data shows that food crop production volumes and yields have actually stagnated over the last fifteen years. Moreover, agricultural output was significantly overestimated from 2008-2013 and then silently corrected downwards in Rwandan and international datasets. As a result, the country’s economic growth numbers are very likely inflated as well. After presenting substantive evidence for these claims, this paper discusses three issues arising from them. First, it argues that yield-raising effects of massive mineral fertiliser application and other ‘Green Revolution’ technologies were offset by the enormous disruption resulting from the government’s rigorously enforced agricultural reform programme. Second, it finds that massive food crop production overestimation likely proliferated due to a flawed performance-based governance system that incentivised bureaucrats and farmers to tweak the numbers instead of compelling them to achieve actual results. Even more, this inflation prevented early detection of agricultural stagnation and consequently also the required adaptation of agricultural policy. Third, the exceptional ‘brand-building’ capabilities of the Rwandan ruling elite led to the preservation of its false reputation of having achieved skyrocketing yield growth. As a silver lining, a few recently revised reform components point to the possibility of an eventually more successful agricultural transformation, whose chances might hinge on the government’s ability to allow more discretion of bureaucrats and more inclusion of local knowledge.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

11808. Climate Change, Central Banking, and Financial Supervision: Beyond the Risk Exposure Approach

Author:
Yannis Dafermos
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
It is now increasingly accepted that central banks and financial supervisors can no longer ignore climate change. However, there is no consensus on how they should address climate issues. On the one hand, there is a view that central banks and financial supervisors should mainly contribute to the assessment of the exposure of the financial system to climate-related financial risks, considering at the same time the possibility of incorporating climate risks into monetary policy and financial supervision and regulation. On the other hand, it is argued that central banks and financial supervisors need to take action such that they contribute directly to the decarbonisation of our economies and the prevention of climate systemic risks. In this paper, I analyse the main premises and implications of these two approaches and I explain why a systemic risk approach is necessary in the age of climate emergency. I also discuss the challenges involved in a policy agenda aiming at the reduction of climate systemic risks and I outline how these challenges can be tackled.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11809. Psychological Resilience to Extremism and Violent Extremism

Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report provides an overview of the expert roundtable on the topic of psychological resilience to violent extremism held during mid-2021. It summarizes key highlights and recommendations that experts made during the roundtable. The roundtable identified relevant psychological factors that increase individual resilience to extremism and violent extremism, provided practical recommendations for cognitive and behavioral skills among topics.
Topic:
International Security, Violent Extremism, Psychology, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11810. A Movement Between Parliamentary Politics and the Pathway to Violence and Terrorism: Germany’s Radical Right Narratives and Counter-narratives

Author:
Maximilian Kreter
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Maximilian Kreter, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Far Right, Radical Right, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

11811. Providing Support to Children and Youth Vulnerable to or Affected by Radicalization Leading to Violent Extremism (RLVE)

Author:
Julien Domergue and Cristina Mattei
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report summarizes the results of Hedayah’s capacity building program Providing Support to Children and Youth Vulnerable to or Affected by Radicalization Leading to Violent Extremism (RLVE) conducted under the guidance of the National Counter Terrorism Commission of Tunisia between January 2019 and November 2019. Since 2018, Hedayah has been training educators, psychologists and social workers across Tunisia to ensure they are better equipped to support the effective reintegration of youth and children affected by radicalization leading to violent extremism.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Youth, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Tunisia

11812. Radical Right Narratives and Norwegian Counter-narratives in the Decade of Utøya and Bærum Solo-actor Attacks

Author:
Mette Wiggen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This country report, written by Dr. Mette Wiggen, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
Topic:
Civil Society, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Political Extremism, Civil Society Organizations, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Canada, Norway, Germany, Hungary, Australia, and New Zealand

11813. Israel and Lebanon: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?

Author:
Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Amidst a deep political and economic crisis in Lebanon, accelerated by the Beirut port explosion in August last year, the end of 2020 witnessed a surprising round of talks regarding the demarcation of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border. These bilateral negotiations - mediated by the U.S. and the U.N. - are the first non-security talks held between the two countries since the 1990s. Of course, Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. The incentives for progress in the talks are strong as they could pave the way for lucrative oil and gas deals on both sides, though there still appear to be significant obstacles on the Lebanese side. Speaking with John Desrocher, the most recent U.S. mediator for the negotiations, in December 2020, Lebanese President Aoun was quoted as saying that Lebanon wants the talks to succeed because “this will strengthen stability in the South and allow us to invest in natural resources of oil and gas.”[1] Could a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon be feasible, despite the otherwise toxic atmosphere between the two countries and the recent escalating threats of Hizballah? In a region full of surprises, this, too, might be a part of a changing reality.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Economy, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

11814. Kuwait’s New Government: A Political System in Crisis?

Author:
Eran Segal
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Kuwait’s new government, which was sworn in on March 3, is facing what could be a "perfect storm," combining a troublesome mix of political and economic problems that could lead to a substantial change, and perhaps instability. These developments raise the specter of a crisis similar to that of 2012, when Kuwait experienced two separate elections and massive demonstrations.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

11815. The “Non-State” State in Iraqi Political Discourse and Action

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
For several years, the concept of “Iraq as a ‘non-state’” (Iraq al-ladawla) has been circulating within the Iraqi political sphere. This concept became the focus of heated debate among politicians, intellectuals, and journalists across the entire Iraqi political spectrum since the outbreak of the popular uprising in Iraq in October 2019. What is the meaning of this term? What were the circumstances that led to the development of the debate in Iraq? What political and socio-economic problems does it reflect?
Topic:
Politics, Non State Actors, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

11816. Morocco’s Normalization with Israel: The Party for Justice and Development (PJD)’s Reaction

Author:
Tiziana della Ragione
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In December 2020, following the Abraham Accords framework mediated by the United States, Morocco agreed to restore its official diplomatic ties with Israel after a 20-year break, and, in return, the Trump Administration recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the long-disputed territory of Western Sahara. The initial steps to normalize Israeli-Moroccan ties followed quickly on the heels of the official announcements. On January 25, Israel’s liaison office reopened in Rabat while Morocco's diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv is expected to follow later this month, after the arrival to Israel of the Head of Morocco's diplomatic mission Abderrahim Beyyoud in February.[1] While the process for implementing the peace agreement between the two countries continues, with economic, cultural, and social collaborations, the Party for Justice and Development (PJD), the Moroccan Islamist ruling party, has faced criticism for its acquiescence to the Palace’s decision. By aligning itself with King Mohammed VI’s decision to normalize with Israel, the PJD has shown that it is more interested in preserving its good relations with the Palace and winning the King’s support for its domestic agenda of socio-economic reforms, than in taking a hard line on Palestine. During the PJD-led government of Abdelillah Benkirane (2012-2016), successful socio-economic reforms led to its attaining an additional 18 parliamentary seats in the October 2016 elections, reinforcing its position as the largest party in parliament. In muting its criticism of the normalization process, PJD is preserving its position in the political arena and focusing on its socio-economic agenda, which it sees as the key to its success. However, in doing so, the PJD risks alienating a portion of its constituency, which may view its silence in defense of Palestine as a form of ideological betrayal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Morocco

11817. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment

Author:
Ido Yahel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

11818. Is the Muslim Brotherhood losing Turkey and Qatar in the light of the rapprochement with Egypt?

Author:
Michael Barak
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Egypt's relations with Turkey and Qatar have been improving for the last six months, following a long period of diplomatic crises and hostility that lasted eight years and four years, respectively. This rapprochement is an attempt to reset relations in a way that would allow all three parties to maintain their good relations with the new U.S. administration. As a condition for normalizing ties, Egypt had demanded that Turkey and Qatar end their support to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). This demand has been described in the Arab media as an ominous sign for the MB, which feared it would be sacrificed on the altar of Turkish and Qatari state interests. However, the discourse of the MB's members on the subject, the continued anti-Egyptian remarks of senior Turkish government officials, and the intention of the Egyptian government to execute senior MB leaders suggests that the chances of Turkey and the MB ending their relationship are quite slim. Qatar, for its part, continues to allow the MB's members to find refuge within its borders, but at the same time is not interested in provoking Egypt.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Government, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

11819. Hizballah’s Gain, Lebanon’s Pain

Author:
Joel Parker and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
On August 6, Hizballah fired 20 rockets towards the Shebaa Farms area of the Golan Heights, highlighting the growing political instability in Lebanon. Hizballah's behavior should be viewed in light of the ongoing financial and political crisis that has affected every aspect of Lebanese life since late 2019 and has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into poverty. Hizballah may not be the primary or sole cause of the crisis, but it is important to understand how it may have contributed indirectly to it, how it may benefit from it, and why it may not have an interest in fully resolving it. Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), argues that despite the collapsing economy in Lebanon, Hizballah has been able to expand its array of social-welfare institutions to deepen their Shiʿi constituency's dependence and even expand the reach of these programs by providing support to a growing number of Lebanese who are struggling to survive. Hizballah also receives funding from Iran and through its commercial activities around the world, so one might ask how much Hizballah really needs the Lebanese state. Lina Khatib, a scholar at Chatham House and SOAS University of London, contends that Hizballah benefits from its hybrid role as a part of the state and, at the same time, free to operate outside the official channels of government and public scrutiny. Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, however, has argued that the group might indeed benefit from a collapse of the state, which will allow Hizballah to continue to fill a growing political, economic, and social power vacuum.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Regional Power, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

11820. Jordan: With Relations with Washington and Jerusalem Back in Order, a Flurry of Diplomatic Activity

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Jordanian diplomacy has been invigorated in recent months, with Jordan taking a major and sometimes leading role in significant regional developments. The renewed intensity and prominence are associated with marked improvement in relations with the United States and Israel, following the leadership changes in both countries. King ʿAbdullah II seems to have received a fresh mandate from the Biden Administration to help promote regional changes aimed at reducing the influence of Iran and its allies, in an era of declining direct American engagement in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

11821. Analysis of Arab Voting Patterns in the Elections for the 24th Knesset

Author:
Ziyad Abu Habla
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The Arab sector has the electoral potential to win 25 seats in the Knesset. The low voter participation rate in the last elections (44.6%) was the result of a number of factors: the Arab representatives’ lack of influence on the government; the Arab community’s lack of confidence in parliamentary endeavor; the marginal status of Arab society; and the ideological boycotting of the elections. The poor results of the parties on the Left among Arab voters reflect their problematic relations with the Arab community. Arab voters do not view the leftist parties as a viable electoral alternative. On the other hand, only a negligible number of Jewish voters voted for the two Arab parties. The success of the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the failure of the Joint List in the Bedouin sector are the result of the latter’s inability to provide solutions to the problems of the Bedouin population, as well as the support in Bedouin society for Ra’am’s religious and conservative platform.
Topic:
Politics, Minorities, Elections, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

11822. From a Community to a Society: Trends in Druze Voting Patterns in the Knesset Elections, 1996–2020

Author:
Mahmoud Shanan and Omri Eilat
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The rate of voter turnout in the Druze community has been characterized by a continual downward trend for the past three decades. In deciding whether to vote and which party to vote for, Druze voters take individualistic considerations into account more than collective considerations which are related to the Druze community as a whole. Like other Druze communities throughout the Middle East, the Druze community in Israel is characterized by a pragmatic approach and political moderation. Therefore, the radical political views that the Arab parties try to promote are unattractive to most Druze voters. While Labor was the dominant party in the Druze community until 1999, there was no dominant party again until Blue-White in the 2019 elections. The expected collapse of Blue-White in the upcoming Knesset elections will leave a vacuum among the Druze and will lead to a further decline in their rate of voter turnout. The dispersed voting pattern of the Druze in the elections proves that politically they are not a homogenous community but rather a heterogeneous society.
Topic:
Minorities, Elections, Voting, and Druze
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

11823. The elections for the 24th Knesset: A Turning Point in the Integration of Arabs into National Politics?

Author:
Elie Rekhess
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the upcoming Knesset elections, the taboo that an Arab party should not join a government coalition is liable to be broken, in view of the crisis in Israeli politics and the balance between the Right and Center-Left. The Arab camp is showing a historic willingness for political partnership, but the Zionist Center-Left camp is hesitant to establish a coalition based on the Arab parties. Paradoxically, it is Benjamin Netanyahu who is likely to benefit from the political changes on the Arab street. Although in the past he ran a campaign to delegitimize the Arab parties, today he is embracing the Arab community against the backdrop of a split Joint Arab List. From a practical political viewpoint, Arab voters are differentiating between the nationalist level and the pragmatic day-to-day level. This is evidence of the increasing “Israelization” of the Arab community, though it is not giving up its Palestinian identity.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Ethnicity, Voting, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

11824. Charlie Hebdo’s Caricatures and Macron’s Statements in the Eyes of Francophone Muslim Preachers

Author:
Elad Ben David
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In January issue of Beehive, Elad Ben David analyses the reaction of French Muslim preachers to the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo’s republication in September 2020 of the controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe and France

11825. Boğaziçi University Demonstrations: Will Erdoğan be Able to Blow the Secular Bubble of Istanbul?

Author:
Hay Eytan and Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In February issue of Beehive, Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak analyses the students’ protests at Boğaziçi University, which took place in January 2021, reflective of the polarization in Turkish society. During the last month, Turkish social media were busy with the mass protests that took place at the Boğaziçi University campus in Istanbul following the appointment of Prof. Melih Bulu, a close associate of President Erdoğan’s, to the post of rector of Boğaziçi. These protests occurred in the shadow of the public debate on the possibility of early elections and President Erdoğan’s recent statement regarding the need for a new constitution to replace the one currently in vigor – which was adopted in 1982 by the military junta that took power two years earlier. Boğaziçi University is considered among the most important educational institutions in Turkey and it is also known as one of the last secular bubbles of Istanbul.
Topic:
Youth, Protests, Secularism, Polarization, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

11826. Reflections of the Rohingya in the Online Jihadi Propaganda

Author:
Ariel Koch
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive, Ariel Koch analyzes the Jihadist propaganda directed to the Muslim population of Myanmar, including the social media discourse. One of the less familiar arenas of jihad is Myanmar (formerly Burma), a country known for the ongoing conflict between the government-backed Buddhist majority and the Rohingya Muslim minority in the Rahkine state (formerly known as Arakan). This ethno-religious conflict has gained worldwide attention following massacres and forced deportations led by Myanmar’s army against the Rohingya. Recently, the army overthrew the elected government, raising concern about the Rohingya’s fate. This conflict has also been reflected in the discourse of various Islamist and Salafi-Jihadist organizations, which try to radicalize Myanmar’s Muslims, or encourage Muslims to defend their coreligionists.Al-Qaeda was the first to address the situation.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Social Media, Islamism, Jihad, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

11827. New Media, Same Libya?

Author:
Biancamaria Vallortigara
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Beehive, Biancamaria Vallortigara investigates the impact of social media on Libyan society and the role of disinformation in the current crisis. Just a little over 10 years ago, when a wave of mass protests started to spread through the Middle East, the world observed intrigued the role played by the modern information and communication technologies (ICT): the “Arab Spring” has shown how social media networks facilitated the development of popular protests within a region, and the spread of revolutionary ideas from one country to another.
Topic:
Media, Internet, Social Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

11828. Is there a Shift in Lebanese Public Opinion toward Israel?

Author:
Jonathan Nizar Elkhoury
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive, Jonathan Elkhoury analyzes the ongoing discourse on Lebanese social media about normalization with Israel. The word “normalization” has become one of the most famous and used words in the Arab world over the last year. Trump’s announcement in August 2020 of a historic peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) made the headlines all over the world, mainly on social media platforms. Shortly after, it was announced that Bahrain would join the U.A.E., becoming the second Gulf country to sign a normalization agreement with Israel. These peace deals, later known as the Abraham Accords, brought back the question that many were asking themselves: will there be more Arab and Muslim countries to sign peace agreements with Israel? Specifically, will Lebanon be the next country to sign a peace agreement with Israel?
Topic:
Public Opinion, Social Media, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon

11829. Mockery as a Tool of Palestinian Resistance on TikTok

Author:
Maya de Vries
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
n June issus of Beehive, Maya de Vries investigates Palestinian activism in the TikTok platform. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict "Guardian of the Walls" and communal disturbances in May 2021. During the last year, the use of the TikTok social media platform has skyrocketed, amassing more than a billion users worldwide. TikTok is a digital platform that allows its users to upload, share and watch short videos that last between 15 seconds to one minute (depending on the video’s format). The videos are uploaded with original or recorded text or music in the background. Recently, TikTok has become a major instigating factor in recent incidents in Jerusalem and throughout Israel, which led to extensive public discourse about the application’s role in the flow of events. For example, videos containing the hashtag #freepalestine garnered 6.6 billion views on TikTok. One video, in which a young Palestinian slaps a young ultra-Orthodox man on a train in Jerusalem went viral, and, to a certain extent, triggered additional cases of Palestinian violence in then city. During the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza in May, many more videos documenting fighting between Israelis and Palestinians flooded TikTok.
Topic:
Political Activism, Social Media, Conflict, and TikTok
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

11830. The Demonstrations on Israel’s Borders in Jordan and Lebanon during the “Guardian of the Walls” Military Operation: Grassroots Protests or Premeditated Outbursts of Rage?

Author:
Shay Jovany
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In June issue of Beehive, Shay Jovany compares social mobilisation in Jordan and Lebanon against the Israeli military operation “Guardian of the Walls”. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict and communal disturbances in May 2021. Following several days of violence and civil unrest on the Temple Mount complex and in the Sheikh al-Jarah neighborhood, Hamas fired several rockets at Jerusalem on May 10. This triggered the “Guardian of the Walls” military operation, which similar to Israel’s past operations in Gaza, led to an outpouring of concern and condemnation in the international media and on social media platforms, including in the Arab world.
Topic:
Social Media, Conflict, Protests, Borders, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan

11832. The Egyptian TikTok Girls

Author:
Nir Boms
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In August issue of Beehive, Nir Boms analyses the Egypt’s recent restrictive policy on social media and its impact on young bloggers. Amidst a new wave of authoritarianism and repression in Egypt, the Internet remains one of the only platforms of alternative expression, although perhaps, not for long. Aside from Covid-19, the water crisis of the Rival Nile Dam, and the ongoing economic challenge, Egyptian news also dealt with the visible arrest of two young “TikTok stars.” Haneen Hossam, aged 20, was sentenced in absentia by a Cairo court to ten years in prison while Mawada al-Adham, aged 23, who appeared before the court, was sentenced to six.
Topic:
Politics, Authoritarianism, Internet, and Social Media
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

11833. The Challenge of Transnational Salafi-Jihadi Terrorism in Africa

Author:
Matan Daniel
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Matan Daniel presents an overview of two of the major transnational jihadi groups operating in Africa, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. He puts each group in its context, and shows how they represent new challenges for the continent and specifically in the regions where they are active. Salafi-jihadi groups (SJGs) have become a significant challenge and threat to global security and to the political stability of many countries during the past few decades. The emergence of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State, and the catastrophic consequences of their activity remain vivid in the memory of many. In recent years, as the resonance of al-Qaʿeda and the Islamic State's operations seems to be receding in the Middle East and Asia, Africa has become a rising sphere for the activity of SJGs. This article will elaborate on the issue of Salafi-jihadi activity in Africa, its transnational classification, and on two of the groups that represent it today, al-Shabaab and Boko Haram.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Salafism, Transnational Actors, Jihad, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Somalia

11834. The Death of Chad’s Warrior President: What it Means for the Region and the World

Author:
Eline Rosenhart
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Eline Rosenhart explains how the recent killing of Chad's long-term president, Idriss Déby Itno, puts the country in a precarious situation. She analyzes the historical background of his regime, and notes that this could be an opportunity for Chadians to make the political system more inclusive.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Chad

11835. For Mozambique’s government, is radical Islam exclusively a security issue?

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the response of the government of Mozambique to the growing security threat of Islamist violence in the north of the country. To address this problem, she explains the background of the issue and calls for a broad approach that would deal with social and ethnic marginalization, as well.
Topic:
Security, Government, Islam, Violence, and Marginalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

11836. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
Topic:
Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

11837. Changes in Oil Markets and New Technology: The Effects of COVID-19 and Climate Change

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin discusses the near and long term prospects for oil pricing, with special attention to new technologies being developed in wealthy Gulf States. In the first two months of 2021, the price of oil rose by almost 38 percent to just over $65/barrel. Was this because of rising demand, supply constraints or increased confidence? All these factors were relevant, but a glance at the OPEC basket price of oil over the past decade puts the rise in prices into perspective. At the end of February, the oil price was well below its 2011-2014 and 2018 highs both nominally terms and even more so when inflation is considered.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Science and Technology, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

11838. The UAE and Israel: Developing Relations and the Challenge Ahead

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the developing economic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel with an emphasis on investments in the energy sector. In April 2021, the Israeli firm Delek Drilling announced plans to sell its 22 percent direct stake in the Tamar gas field to investors led by the Abu Dhabi based state-owned Mubadala Petroleum for $1.1 billion. The Tamar field has an estimated 297 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves. This would be by far the largest commercial deal yet between Israel and the UAE. Mubadala Petroleum is a wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor, Mubadala Investment Company. Its plans to move into Israel’s upstream gas sector have the backing of the UAE and Israeli governments. In March 2021, the UAE announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund to invest in energy and other strategic sectors of the Israeli economy. According to the official statement, the UAE will invest in and with Israel in sectors including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare, and agro-tech. The investment fund will support development initiatives to promote regional economic cooperation between the two countries. Funding will come from government and private sector institutions and the Delek deal is part of this framework,
Topic:
Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

11839. The Forgotten Crises in the Gulf: Electricity and Water in Iran and Iraq

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the causes of shortages in electricity and water supplies in the Persian Gulf region. In Iraq and Iran, in particular, spontaneous protests have gained momentum this summer as a result of these critical problems. The Gulf is well known for its oil and gas resources, but the lack of water may be its outstanding feature. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of the Gulf states rose by almost 50 percent but the supply of fresh water from sources other than desalination fell. This edition of Iqtisadi examines recent developments in the Gulf with an emphasis on the water crisis. The oil producers in the Gulf are divided into two groups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – and Iran plus Iraq. The GCC states are all monarchies while Iran and Iraq are republics. The differences between the two groups are not only constitutional and political, but also socio-economic.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Water, Economy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Gulf Nations

11840. How the Taliban Re-took Afghanistan

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin discusses the broader historical, political and economic context for the Taliban's recent return to power in Afghanistan. On 15 August 2021, Taliban forces entered the Afghan capital, Kabul, as the government collapsed and the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. This brought an end to the twenty-year campaign waged by the US and its allies to remake the country. The speed with which the Afghan army collapsed shocked many, but others, who understood developments in the country better, were not surprised. On 31 August, the last US forces left the country.
Topic:
Politics, Taliban, Economy, and History
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

11841. Turkey and Egypt: Time for Normalization? Not Quite Yet

Author:
Marwa Maziad
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Marwa Maziad discusses the relationship between Turkey and Egypt over the long term. She analyzes the causes and effects of the divergent approaches to domestic and regional politics held presently by the respective Turkish and Egyptian presidents.
Topic:
Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

11842. The way forward for Turkish-American relations: Partnership à la carte?

Author:
Selin Nasi
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Selin Nasi analyzes how Turkish and American foreign policies have reached an impasse on a number of issues. Despite these differences, she highlights several areas of mutual interest where cooperation can, nevertheless, improve the relationship going forward.
Topic:
International Relations, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Turkey and United States of America

11843. Turkish-Russian Relations: A Puzzle that Shakes the Middle East

Author:
Remi Daniel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Remi Daniel discusses several contemporary trends in the Russian-Turkish relationship. The dynamics of competition and cooperation between these two states affect the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa in profound ways.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa

11844. Afghanistan offers an opportunity to repair Turkey-NATO relations

Author:
Kohei Imai
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Kohei Imai discusses the context for Turkey's planned involvement in Afghanistan even after the US-led widrawal that is currently underway. Turkey's agreement to handle security for the Kabul airport demonstrates its unique and strategic role in NATO.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and United States of America

11845. The Central Asian Perspective on Turkey: Does Family Come First?

Author:
Oğul Tuna
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Oğul Tuna discusses the changing role of Turkey in Central Asia in recent years. This essay argues that ethnolinguistic links have helped improve relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but each Central Asian state has its own calculations that factor into separate diplomatic, cultural, and defense deals with Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Culture, Ethnicity, and Language
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkey

11846. The “Four Plus One”: The Changing Power Politics of the Middle East

Author:
Joshua Krasna and George Meladze
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this inaugural MDC Occasional Paper, Josh Krasna and George Meladze analyze the structure of power in the Middle East during the past decade, mapping the main regional players and the interrelationships between them, and assessing the potential for future change in the politics of the region.
Topic:
Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

11847. Independent Assessment of the Implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
This independent evaluation aims to investigate the implementation of the 2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan. The pandemic, which has lasted since 2020, has brought significant changes in the world. The changes in terms of both quality and quantity were reflected in the economic environment and individual's livelihood. Because of the requirement for long-term quarantine conditions to battle the pandemic, both developed and developing countries have experienced economic downturns. The research comprises forecast indicators defined by the appropriate executive authority during the year, as well as the draft legislation on 2020 state budget implementation, in addition to the forecast indicators represented in the material provided with the original and updated draft state budget for 2020. The basic order is as follows; introduction, revenues, expenditures, fiscal sustainability, sequestration of costs, cost reduction, receipt of subsidies from the budget, optimization of receivables, distribution of expenditures, and debts. The results included graphical and tabular descriptions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

11848. Are we facing a wave of conflict in high-income countries?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Mack, Céline Monnier, Nendirmwa Noel, Paul von Chamier, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The recent wave of violent protests and unrest across the developed world – the storming of the US Capitol during the electoral college process and the riots in the Netherlands, among others – questions the assumption that high-income countries have become immune to large-scale internal political violence. Are we facing a new wave of high-income conflict? At a minimum, increased violent unrest, political assassinations, and domestic terrorism in the next ten years seem possible, unless governments focus on avoiding impunity and establishing shared understanding of facts, reducing inequality and prejudice, and building institutional resilience. This analysis examines whether these recent events augur a wider shift in conflict risk to high-income countries, akin to the shift seen from low to middle-income countries 20 years ago. Given these events, this analysis systematically reviews conflict risks in high-income countries, as well as offers a framework that has been widely applied in the developing world to examine the risk factors for violent conflict in wealthy countries, including second generation impacts of COVID-19.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

11849. UN-IFI Cooperation during Peacekeeping Drawdowns: Opportunities for Mutual Support

Author:
Paige Arthur
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As increasing political and budgetary pressures have come to bear on UN peace operations in recent years, more attention has been paid to ensuring that drawdowns are undertaken in a way that sustains the gains of a mission’s presence. This policy briefing highlights a number of missed opportunities and argues for greater collaboration between the UN, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ahead of a mission’s departure to build greater synergies between the country’s political and economic pathways. The brief begins by summarizing the economic challenges related to UN transitions, including diving deeper into the debate on whether or not these transitions create a “financial cliff”—in particular, in relation to official development assistance and foreign direct investment. We then describe three key opportunities for the UN, the Bank, and the IMF to leverage their respective mandates and comparative advantages during mission drawdowns, seizing the moment around transitions to support a country’s pathway to peace in ways that also lessen its economic burdens and supports key reforms. These opportunities include: Generating better alignment and planning between the three institutions in transition moments, with a focus on maintaining and strengthening peacebuilding gains while also seeking to unlock broader economic opportunities; Collaborating across areas of expertise to assess budgetary and resourcing gaps that may prove crippling to a country’s emergence from fragility, if not addressed; Activating levers for additional peacebuilding financing and to support reform, from the UN’s PBC and multi-partner trust funds, to IMF support to improve access to financial markets, to the sensitive use of the World Bank’s new FCV envelopes in IDA19 . The brief is based on desk research as well as interviews with a small number UN, World Bank, and IMF representatives involved in the transition process in Timor-Leste, Côte d’Ivoire, and Liberia, as well as the expected transition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Reform, Multilateralism, Peace, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11850. How can we work towards economic recovery for all? Financing for Development: the issues, challenges, and opportunities in 2021

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
2021, we all hope, will be the year of recovery. If COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out at scale, including in the developing world, global economic recovery will be large. But that in itself ensures neither that all countries will be included in the recovery, nor that all people within each country will see the gains. A rising tide, as we have seen only too well since US president John F. Kennedy first used the phrase in 1963, does not lift all boats. Elsewhere, CIC has analyzed the high demand for transformative policies in high- and low-income countries alike since the COVID-19 crisis began, including policies for domestic action on inequality and socioeconomic exclusion. This piece takes a more global view and considers how to ensure that all countries benefit, and examines the issues, challenges, and opportunities in financing for development. It looks first at the key political messages that explain why 2021 should be a year of urgent, ambitious global action for shared economic recovery; secondly at the measures under discussion (which are expanded in an annex); thirdly at the political interests at play; and fourthly at foreseeable scenarios for agreement. Last, we outline the calendar of relevant policy meetings this year and the challenge of orchestrating progress between them.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Finance, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus