Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 3 Years

9851. The RRF as administrative subsidiarity

Author:: Adriaan Schout
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: When the corona crisis broke out, it was clear that eurozone economies were ill prepared for new setbacks. Put differently, the SGP had failed to produce convergence. The RRF offers an opportunity to reconsider the effectiveness of economic governance and to strengthen national ownership for sound economic policies. Despite its potential merits, the RRF was not designed to reinforce national institutions to monitor and correct their own economic policies. Creating the required ownership for sound economic policies would have demanded empowering the independent National Productivity Boards (NPBs) and Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), and integrating them in a redesigned independent network-based European Fiscal Board (EFB). The failure in 2020 to include the NPBs, IFIs and the EFB also implies a major break with the Fiscal Compact, Two Pack and Six Pack that aimed at empowering national institutions. The RRF concerns a major financial commitment and could thus have been used as bargaining chip to strengthen the long-term reform measures by insisting on a subsidiarity-based European monitoring and enforcement system, including mutual inspections, and build around the nascent macroeconomic independent national and EU agencies. Such decentralized systems have proved their worth in successful European policy areas such as in monitoring the state of the environment in member states. This will have consequences for the organization of the EU Commission. Using the lessons from the RRF to (forget to) strengthen national institutions is also relevant for redesigning the SGP. Firstly, redesigning the NPBs, IFIs and EFB will offer a suitable model for monitoring national policies as a replacement of the current centralized control under the SGP by the Commission. Secondly, the future development of the RRF and NGEU can be used as bargaining chip in the negotiations on the SGP. The review of the SGP will involve adaptation of rules, reinstituting the ESM, and deciding on new emergency funds. The negotiations ahead offer opportunities and leverage for steering towards a pro-active and constructive role for the Netherlands in the elaboration of subsidiarity-based economic governance.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

9852. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:: Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:: Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

9853. Covid-19 prompts the EU and the Netherlands to rethink global health

Author:: Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a strong re-engagement in global health. Because the pandemic coincided with geopolitical rifts between the US and China, but required a global response, the EU and its member states took responsibility to safeguard the World Health Organization (WHO) and initiated global arrangements for vaccine sharing for developing countries. Within the EU, mandates and global health functions have traditionally been underdeveloped and divided between the development and health sectors. For the Netherlands, this is perhaps the case to an even larger extent. Development funding has focused primarily on sexual and reproductive health and rights, and the health ministry has had limited interest and capacity on international health issues, with the exception of certain specific issues such as Anti-Microbial Resistance (AMR) and medicine prices. Spending on global health by both the EU and the Netherlands has been fragmented, with mainly ad hoc budgets being made available for the international pandemic response. This policy brief calls for a structural response and more coherent outlook on global health.
Topic:: Development, European Union, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

9854. Turning EU green energy diplomacy into reality

Author:: Louise Van Schaik, Akash Ramnath, and Giulia Cretti
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In Spring 2022, the European Commission will present its International Energy Engagement strategy, which will undoubtedly reflect that the European Green Deal nowadays tops the Brussels agenda. From being a traditional buyer of fossil fuels, the EU is adapting to become an exporter of green energy solutions and, to some degree, an importer of green energy. At a time when energy prices are historically high and EU climate policy is accelerating, this policy brief analyses what a more pro-active EU green energy diplomacy could look like. In light of this shift, a review is made of which instruments the EU could deploy to support green energy transitions and discourage third countries from continuing extraction and production of fossil fuels. It recommends the EU takes a firm stance on phasing out fossil fuel and enter dialogue with some of its current fossil fuel suppliers on the implications of its own transition. The EU will need to establish new partnerships on green energy provision, technology and critical raw materials needed for the transition.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Green Deal, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

9855. ‘If you want to go far, go together’ Community engagement and infrastructure development in fragile settings

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCAS), infrastructure development is a sharp double-edged sword: it can foster sustainable and inclusive development, but it can also exacerbate fragility and conflict. This brief argues that a substantial engagement of local communities has the potential to improve the conflict sensitivity of infrastructure efforts in FCAS. To ensure that these efforts have a positive impact on fragility dynamics, however, due attention should also be paid to the specific choices made in terms of project design and implementation. The brief offers a set of pragmatic considerations aimed at supporting practitioners navigating such choices. In addition, to ensure a proper tailoring of project choices to the specific context, practitioners should also rely extensively on conflict sensitivity analyses, monitoring the interaction between the project and the context’s underlying drivers of fragility throughout the whole project cycle. While so far CDD projects have mostly focused on small-scale infrastructure, efforts should be devoted to explore whether and how CDD approaches can be applied to larger infrastructure projects.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9856. "Is the Internet Trying to Kill Us?" And other Technology Security Unknowns In the New Roaring Twenties

Author:: Miles Taylor
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Machines are poised to transform life as we know it... and America isn’t ready. A hundred years ago, machines remade the world. Society in the 1920s was transformed by a proliferation of cars, radios, movies, and airplanes, dramatically altering the way we lived, worked, and played. We did not know it then, but the sweeping technology revolution was poised to change the way we fought, too. The 1930s saw a revolution in military affairs as warfare became deadlier and faster-paced, a foreseeable consequence of the previous decade’s innovations.278 This nevertheless caught many nations by surprise, such as those affected by the German blitzkrieg. We are entering a New Roaring Twenties, and again we are unprepared for how it will affect national security in the decades to come. Make no mistake: today’s innovations will be tomorrow’s economic drivers, which is why we should be actively investing in the bleeding-edge tech of the future. But we must also be vigilant about how such developments will affect our security at home and reshape international conflict, or else risk a reordering of the global balance of power. This article previews several emerging technology dilemmas, what’s being done about them, and why—in some cases—it’s already too late.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9857. Data Science Teams: Evolution of the Full-Contact Sport

Author:: Colleen McCue and Brandon Daigle
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: No one today questions whether data science can confer competitive advantage to organizations effectively adopting these capabilities. Considerable attention has been paid to technology, talent, and training as organizations attempt to build data science programs in an effort to convert aspiration to practice; moving from simply counting and reporting what happened to datainformed prediction and prescription. As understanding of the various and specific data science roles has evolved, talent development, management, and leadership are emerging as new frontiers. Organizations now work to create data science capacity where effective and responsible use of advanced analytics makes the whole truly more than a sum of the parts. Organizations increasingly recognize data science as a “must have” capability and are scrambling to recruit and hire data science talent. Data literacy programs are also proliferating given growing empirical research demonstrating the importance of upskilling across the organization in order to optimize data science talent and efforts. At the same time, the community is moving away from the data science “unicorn” concept in favor of a data science ecosystem. This is built through aggregation and assembly of complementary data science skill sets in support of meaningful, scalable, and sustainable breadth and depth of capacity. The challenge many organizations now face is how to organize and manage this disparate yet complementary talent? While the data science Venn Diagram has become ubiquitous, recent analysis suggests we are actually looking at something with far greater complexity and depth– more akin to a data science “tapestry” where unique data science capabilities and roles are intricately interwoven across the enterprise.297 Although aesthetically appealing, the tapestry construct is inherently static. Experience increasingly suggests that fixed data science resource allocation constructs are inflexible and even brittle; breaking in response to rapid evolution or change. Moreover, fixed or otherwise inflexible organizational constructs may have limited capacity to adjust on the fly to address unanticipated challenges and opportunity alike. What is needed, therefore, is data science capacity that is relatively fluid, agile and dynamic. It should be able to rapidly pivot in response to changing conditions, including unforeseen shortcomings or failures, while also setting the conditions to fully capitalize on unexpected windfalls in support of true competitive advantage. With this evolving understanding of high-performing data teams, we propose that analytically competitive organizations actually operationalize data science as something closer to a full-contact team sport where no one rides the bench.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Leadership, Data, and Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9858. Transforming Military Technology Through Aquisition Policy

Author:: Rabia Altaf
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) emphasized the need for continued technological modernization of the U.S. Armed Forces.324 This notion, first brought to light by the Obama administration, is underlined by the military’s inability to adapt and modernize at the pace necessary to restore the United States’ military dominance. At the root of this issue is the relationship between the Pentagon and the defense industry, which currently operates with an inadequate military technology acquisition process. Acquisition allows the Department of Defense (DoD) to communicate its strategic vision and shape the military to meet current and future threats. As it stands, this deficient process results in the mis-regulation of the defense industry. Improving the acquisition process by clearing hurdles, creating policy with innovation in mind, and carefully crafting regulation is critical for the United States to regain its competitive military advantage to tackle the global security issues of the coming decades. The Pentagon must also rethink its relationship with the private sector to induce more companies to join its supply chain and provide fresh solutions and perspectives to problems the United States has never faced before. As a notoriously difficult customer, the Pentagon must remove unnecessary roadblocks to attract a more diverse group of companies to supplement the defense industrial base.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: United States of America and north amer

9859. Bringing Down the Hammer On Chinese Tech

Author:: Dawn M. K. Zoldi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Law is what you must do; policy is what you should do. With regard to country-of-origin bans on technology, either one has the effect of the proverbial hammer. Of late, the U.S. government has been wielding that hammer consistently against China in what amounts to an all-out tech war. The most visible fronts have involved Huawei, ByteDance (TikTok), and TenCent (WeChat). However, a lesser-known conflict relating to the commercial drone sector involves Da Jiang Innovations (DJI), a Chinese technology company headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong. It is a three-pronged assault based on cybersecurity, national security, and human rights concerns. Will the U.S. commercial drone ecosystem get hammered in this conflict?
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Drones
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9860. Russian New and Experimental Nuclear-Capable Missiles: A Short Primer

Author:: Christopher Mihal
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Russia has tested a wide variety of new weapon systems in an effort to modernize and upgrade its nuclear forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been shy about publicly discussing these new weapon systems or the capabilities of several of them, though a few are not currently feasible for any sort of deployment. More of a threat, however, are the two weapons that Putin did not boast about: the SSC8 and SSC-X-31, both of which were almost certainly in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. While these missiles represent a threat in and of themselves, a far greater threat is the indication that Russia does not feel bound by international agreements. These missiles have already had their first successful casualty in the death of the INF Treaty, and they may have also dealt a mortal blow to the New START Treaty. To adequately understand Russia’s new nuclear arsenal, one must simultaneously look at the weapon systems themselves as well as the context in which they are being developed. Russia continues to view both the U.S. and NATO as supreme existential threats. Unfortunately for Russia, both the U.S. and NATO have greater military, political, and economic power, and so Russia has long sought avenues to achieve its national objectives without conventional military confrontation.386 Russia has turned to two primary means of ensuring supremacy: enhancing its nuclear arsenal, which it views as a powerful deterrent that is cheaper to maintain than a large conventional military, as well as ‘hybrid’ war, which encompasses a number of techniques just shy of war including cyber warfare, informatsionaya voyna (information warfare) and a large amount of maskirovka (deception) in both military and non-military realms.387 Putin has emphasized information control and manipulation since coming to power, ranging from direct methods such as election interference and masking the identity of irregular forces in Ukraine, to more subtle methods of dezinformatsiya (disinformation), of which the exaggerated capabilities of Russia’s new nuclear weapons are prime examples. Dezinformatsiya is using false or misleading information and disseminating it to credible news outlets. This causes opponents to either act upon the incorrect information, thus wasting time and resources, or it undermines the credibility of the news outlet when it is proven false.388 Both of these goals of dezinformatsiya are being met with the current furor regarding Russia’s new nuclear weapons. This primer aims to dispel some of the false or misleading claims regarding these weapons and present a factual foundation from which to react to Russia’s new weapon developments and how they fit into Russia’s strategic vision.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America

9861. "Systemic Risks": A Conversation on Nuclear Technology and Deterrence with Dr. Vipin Narang

Author:: Dylan Land
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): What do you perceive as the greatest threat to global nuclear security? Where do you see the greatest potential for the outbreak of nuclear war? Vipin Narang (VN): Rather than focusing on regions, I see three trends which I think we should be concerned about. One is the return of a great power arms race, and a lot of this was exacerbated in the Trump administration. Even as we head into the Biden administration—which extended the New START Treaty with Russia for five years—Russia and China are modernizing their nuclear forces at breakneck speed. They are worried primarily about U.S. missile defenses, which at this point are unconstrained. The United States has a variety of missile defense systems at the regional level which work pretty well, as well as the national missile defense system, which doesn’t…yet. You will often hear that the national missile defense system does not work very well and that is true—the success rate is around 60 percent in simulated tests. It may be difficult to ever get it to work perfectly or even well, but it is the prospect that the United States might get it to work that really drives modernization efforts in Russia and China.....
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Risk, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Global Focus, and United States of America

9862. Transitions in Global Health Diplomacy: Views of Donors During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem, and Erik Herron
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Sickening and killing people worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting national and international economies and creating enormous human suffering. Current and future geopolitical implications are substantial, requiring long term attention by national security policymakers in the United States and elsewhere.245 Central among these foreign policy concerns is the capacity of states across the globe to deliver health care (and other services) to their populations and the role of health and human security in promoting national security.246 Prior to the pandemic, interest in Global Health Diplomacy (GHD) as a foreign policy tool was growing, reflecting the recognition of border crossing health concerns and the effectiveness of health-focused development aid. Health assistance provided through GHD enables improvements in the quality of life, expansion of infrastructure, and strong donor-recipient ties, each of which can contribute to recipient state capacity. Emerging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic increase the importance of international health assistance.247 The value of health assistance in generating grassroots aid recognition, thereby capturing “hearts and minds,” is a potent means of building international recognition of both a state’s humanitarian mission and building a positive reputation in recipient state public opinion. In the American context, the four years of the Trump administration were marked by a decline in American bilateral and multilateral engagement in terms of GHD, specifically its stated intention to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO).248 Importantly, this coincided with a period of rising efforts in this area by China and Russia. These changes highlight the importance of understanding how changes in GHD participation emerge and enable stronger linkages between GHD studies and global rivalries (more common in the field of International Relations).249 We set out to explore how transitioning patterns of GHD engagement inform the positioning priorities of the United States, Russia, China, and multinational organizations such as the European Union. How have the acute health, economic, and in some cases political crises of the global COVID-19 pandemic altered donor engagement in GHD? What are the effects of changes in the perceptions of their engagement in recipient states? We incorporate data from three strategically important post-Soviet countries—Estonia, Ukraine, and the Republic of Georgia—to illustrate how major players in GHD are viewed on the ground. Situated on a long arc from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and beyond to the Caucasus, these states neighbor Russia proper. Proximity to Russia itself implies a core national security problem: Moscow has actively undermined the territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine, seizing parts of both via kinetic warfare while causing massive infrastructure damage (including healthcare infrastructure), thousands of deaths, and the internal displacement of millions.250 Estonia has been the target of cyberattacks emanating from Russia, and all three countries must cope with relentless disinformation campaigns intended to destabilize their governments and societies. These three cases provide insights into how citizens in recipient states view GHD engagement in a time of crisis.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Donors, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9863. Win-Win Cooperation: Welcoming Hong Kong Refugees Would Benefit the United States

Author:: Emily Young Carr and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In his first address to employees of the U.S. State Department, President Joe Biden promised to “take on directly the challenges posed [to] our prosperity, security, and democratic values by our most serious competitor, China.” One of the best ways for the United States to show support for democratic values is to welcome victims of repression in Hong Kong to America. Such a step would not only signal America’s commitment to protecting freedom and democracy abroad, but would also strengthen the U.S. economy. Over the last few years, the Communist Party of China has systematically unwound the freedoms the people of Hong Kong once enjoyed. The United States and likeminded partners have responded by placing sanctions and other economic and financial restrictions on the Chinese officials who direct this repression. Yet, Beijing continues to undercut the “one country, two systems” model, which was supposed to guarantee that the rights and liberties of Hongkongers would be protected after the 1997 handover. Indeed, in the last days of the Trump administration, Chinese authorities arrested over 50 key figures in Hong Kong, including an American lawyer and numerous politicians and activists. Although these arrests were appalling, they did not come as a surprise. Since the passage of the national security law on June 30, 2020, the Chinese government has engaged in a series of increasingly harsh crackdowns on pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong. In August, media mogul Jimmy Lai, social activist Agnes Chow, and other prominent dissidents were swept up in a series of arrests. Months later, the central government dismissed four pro-democracy lawmakers from the city legislature, prompting the remaining 15 to resign in protest. This repressive campaign is aided by the vague language of the national security law, which gives mainland authorities great leeway to define the now criminal acts of secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign powers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Immigration, Authoritarianism, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Asia, Hong Kong, and United States of America

9864. The Climate-Security Century: Three Climate Hotspots

Author:: Mark Nevitt
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The climate-security century is here. With global temperatures rising, climate change is poised to massively destabilize the physical environment. This century may well be defined by our ability (or inability) to reduce our collective greenhouse gas emissions. We must also adapt and respond to climate change’s multivariate security impacts. From raging wildfires in Australia and California to melting ice sheets and permafrost in the Arctic, climate change acts as both a threat accelerant and a catalyst for conflict. Climate change is also unlike any other traditional security threat. It accelerates and exacerbates existing environmental stressors—such as sea level rise, extreme weather, drought, and food insecurity—leading to greater instability. Climate change impacts are already taking center stage this century, forcing us to think more broadly about climate change’s relationship with human security and national security. Complicating matters, climate-driven temperature increases do not rise in a neat, uniform fashion around the globe. The pace of climatic change unfolds unevenly and erratically. Some parts of the world—such as the Arctic—are warming at a rate two to three times faster than the rest of the world. Three specific climate-security “hotspots” foreshadow greater destabilization and serve as climate “canaries in a coal mine”—a sneak preview of our climate-destabilized future.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, National Security, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9865. Forget China: A Policy for an Interconnected Region

Author:: Scott McDonald
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The United States (U.S.) must approach the growing assertiveness and revisionism of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) by deemphasizing its importance to U.S. policy formation. Although this will seem counterintuitive to most observers, it is an important first step in placing the very real challenges posed by the PRC in their appropriate context. Neither is this to suggest the intentions and actions of the PRC do not pose a serious threat to the interests of the U.S., for in many areas they do. However, in crafting foreign policy, the U.S. government must first focus on promoting and defending its own interests. By contrast, the popular emphasis on “countering” other states is a second-handed approach that cedes the initiative and allows one’s adversary to control one’s policy. That is not to say that U.S. policy should not, where appropriate, be confrontational. Washington should not feel the need to kowtow or appease an increasingly aggressive Beijing. However, any action—cooperative or confrontational—must be taken in pursuit of a larger, positive purpose. The starting point for any policy towards the PRC, therefore, is a grand strategic approach to the Indo-Pacific as a region. It lies in a positive, provalue orientation towards building the world in which the U.S. wants to live.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

9866. The Siren's Song of Coast Guard Behavioral Norms in the Western Pacific

Author:: Marc Zlomek
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Since 2014, naval forces operating in the Western Pacific have agreed on the need to moderate operational assertiveness against the risk that a miscalculation on the water could lead to wider confrontation. Increased activity by coast guards in these waters dictates that the same considerations should apply to white hull vessels. In 2015, President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China committed to developing behavioral norms for coast guards. The fact that six years later no such coast guard norms have materialized even though the naval services provide a readily adaptable blueprint is curious, to put it diplomatically. In April 2014, the 21 member-navies of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium approved the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) to promote communication and operational safety when their vessels met. In November 2014, the United States Secretary of Defense and the Chinese Minister of Defense signed a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding on The Rules of Behavior for Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters (The Rules or Rules of Behavior). The Rules, which took root during the 2013 Sunnylands Summit between President Obama and President Xi, are meant to reduce the risk of an incident at sea and to promote confidence building between the United States and Chinese military. CUES and The Rules are similar in many respects and share the same fundamental purpose of reducing the risk of an incident at sea. During the 2015 Sunnylands Summit, President Obama and President Xi committed to developing similar measures for coast guards. At the time, China took the position that the China Coast Guard was not covered by the existing instruments. While no such coast guard version of The Rules exists, the China Coast Guard’s astounding growth and militarization, combined with the United States Coast Guard’s increased regional presence, serve to underscore the need. As detailed in this article, the very bureaucratic reorganization that transformed the China Coast Guard into a military service now make the existing Rules of Behavior easily applicable. The two sides do not need a new coast guard specific agreement but could voluntarily apply the existing Rules of Behavior to white-hulled vessels as they do to gray-hulled vessels. The solution of adapting the Rules of Behavior used by the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) and the United States Navy (USN) to the United States and China Coast Guards is so simple that its failure to materialize begs the question of whether China wants shared expectations for coast guards or if it believes that operational unpredictability better serves its strategic interests.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Navy, Norms, and Coast Guard
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

9867. Adversaries or Competitors: A Conversation on U.S. - China Relations with David Dollar

Author:: Dylan Land and David Dollar
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): How would you characterize the relationship between the U.S. and China today? Are the two countries adversaries or competitors? How might this change under the Biden administration? Dr. David Dollar (DD): The relationship is very complicated. In some ways, the U.S. and China are collaborators on a global order and global public goods, and they are obviously competitors in a healthy economic sense—the same way the U.S. competes with Japan or Western Europe—but then I would say the U.S. has legitimate security concerns about China. I don’t think China is an adversary, but there’s the risk that it becomes an adversary. China is really the only country in the world powerful enough to be a threat to the United States, so that potential threat colors the relationship. As far as the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, some of the measures President Trump has taken are perceived as harsh toward China, but he has given them a pass on other things. He has not personally raised issues of human rights or democracy. Trump is perceived as someone who has respect for strongmen around the world, so I think in some ways the U.S. under President Trump has given China a pass, while being tough in other areas. I would expect the Biden administration to be more consistent; it will certainly raise human rights and democracy issues, and it will continue some of the sanctions that deal with national security. I’m hoping the Biden administration rationalizes the economic policy because clearly the trade war with China has not worked, so we need to try something different.
Topic:: National Security, Interview, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9868. The Future of the Eurasian Economic Union

Author:: Katia Glod
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was established in 2015 and incorporates five countries of the former Soviet bloc—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The declared goal of the project was to create a common market with 180 million consumers, coordinate economic policies, and eliminate non-tariff barriers. The idea behind the EAEU was to revive the economic ties that had broken down when the Soviet Union dissolved by facilitating better growth and more trade. Its member states claimed that the EAEU would emulate the European Union (EU) by adopting a system based on clear and transparent rules to promote free trade. The reality, however, is proving different. So far, the EAEU has failed to transform into a full-fledged economic union. Many outstanding issues require greater political will from the member states to work out common approaches and practices.
Topic:: Economics, Tariffs, Free Trade, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Belarus

9869. Pandemic Preparedness: A Conversation with Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo (Interviewed by Dana Hatic)

Author:: Jennifer Nuzzo and Dana Hatic
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Dr. Nuzzo, thank you for taking the time to speak with FSR today. I would love if you could give us a brief introduction and tell me about what your role has been like since the start of the pandemic. Jennifer Nuzzo (JN): I am an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. I am also a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. I have been involved working on COVID-19 since the first news of an outbreak in China. I run a project called the Outbreak Observatory, which does operational research to improve outbreak responses. One of our activities is to publish a weekly blog, which we do to take stock of what is going on in the world and to try to learn about events—even if we are not actively doing research projects on them, just reminding people that things are happening all the time.
Topic:: Security, Interview, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

9870. Economic Crisis and Elections: A Recipe for Turbulence in Latin America

Author:: Jimena Blanco
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Latin America experienced the second biggest pandemicinduced economic contraction of any region in 2020, just behind the Euro-zone, and Verisk Maplecroft’s Recovery Capacity Index—which measures more than a dozen factors that determine a region’s ability to recover from the crisis—puts Latin America below all but Africa in recovery capability. The resulting social and economic distress has worsened longstanding inequalities and acted as a catalyst for civil unrest. Despite restrictive lockdowns, the pandemic crisis and economic shock sparked demonstrations across the region throughout 2020 as governments proved unable to meet even the most basic needs of their populations. A string of general elections scheduled for 2021 will take place against a backdrop of a surge in poverty and unemployment, setting the stage for another unstable year. With forecasts from the International Monetary Fund projecting the regional economy unlikely to recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, and household incomes not until 2025, this situation will continue. Falling tax receipts will cripple governments’ ability to address spiralling demands from already impoverished workers likely to be pushed into even lower-paid, unstable, and informal jobs. Young people and informal workers who average 60 percent of the regional labour force, on data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, will continue to be disproportionately affected. Dissatisfied and often disenfranchised, these sections of society can be particularly restive, able to mobilise fast in political or anti-establishment protests.
Topic:: Elections, COVID-19, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America

9871. The UN Security Council: Stress Tested

Author:: David M Malone
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: After the United Nations’ (UN) 75th anniversary, it is easy today to forget that this most central and far-reaching of all multilateral organizations was born in very high hopes of its permanent relevancy in maintaining international peace and security. But by baking in a veto for each of the five victorious World War II powers—or deemed as such by the 1945 governments in Washington and London, the godparents of the UN Security Council—the seeds of its frequent spells of semiparalysis were sown, spells which have been intensifying for at least the past four years. Indeed, the council arguably operated at near-peak effectiveness only during the years between 1987 – 1994, when the Cold War was ending and then briefly, as of 1990, appeared to have ended. However, misjudgments in Washington over the extent to which Moscow’s alignment with the thinking of Western capitals could be taken for granted—an attitude bitterly resented at the time by the new Russian Federation—ended that brief spell.
Topic:: United Nations, History, Multilateralism, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

9872. Currency Power & International Security

Author:: Benjamin Cohen
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For anyone concerned about U.S. national security, international finance today poses an intriguing dilemma. On the one hand, in geopolitical terms, the United States seems to have entered a period of relative decline. Some commentators speak of a broad power transition from unipolar hyperpuissance to a new, more threatening multipolar world. Others focus more narrowly on the rise of China and the risk of a “Thucydides Trap.”72 Yet in global finance, the U.S. dollar remains undeniably dominant, still by far the most popular national monetary unit in use for international purposes.73 The greenback is as mighty as ever. Can this disparity continue, or should we expect that geopolitical decay will be followed by—perhaps even exacerbated by—an erosion of the dollar’s standing? Much rides on the answer. An international currency is a source of power for the economy that issues it.74 For some three-quarters of a century, the greenback’s central role in monetary affairs has enhanced the political capabilities of the United States. America’s security has been amplified by currency power. At a time, therefore, when the nation is feeling increasingly vulnerable to adversaries abroad, the outlook for the dollar’s future takes on added importance. Three questions are addressed in this essay. First, how does a currency’s international standing affect the political capabilities of the issuing country? Second, how has currency power been used by the United States? And third, what are the prospects for the greenback looking forward? Much analysis suggests that the outlook for the currency is not bright.75 Some experts worry that we are approaching a tipping point that could lead to an abrupt and panicky dumping of the dollar. I disagree. No sudden rush to the exits would appear to be likely. But over time it does seem plausible to anticipate a gradual, maybe even accelerating loss of monetary primacy. The threat to the greenback—and hence to U.S. security—is not the sudden appearance of a wolf at the door. The risk, rather, is a persistent spread of termites in the woodwork.
Topic:: Economics, International Security, Geopolitics, Finance, and Currency
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

9873. Medical Security, Covid Challenge and the U.S. - Japan Alliance

Author:: Kent Calder
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: National security has been classically conceived as a narrowly military and state-centric concept, especially in the Western industrial world. Security is, generations of strategists and statesmen have told us, a matter of defending core nation-state values and interests by force of arms. Two world wars across the first half of the twentieth century, and a long nuclear confrontation to follow, engrained this military and state-centric conception deeply into global consciousness and public discourse. The tragic COVID-19 crisis now confronting us suggests that this logic may be flawed, or at least oversimplified. Over 2.3 million people worldwide died in the first year of this global pandemic, with well over 100 million infected. These figures are likely understated.44 Untold millions of people continue to suffer from “long COVID” maladies around the world.
Topic:: Economics, Health, National Security, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9874. The Essentiality of Cognitive Diversity in American National Security

Author:: Barry R. McCaffrey
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Two decades after UNSCR 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security was passed, the Biden administration appears poised to usher in a new era of female leadership. Why is this increase in cognitive diversity so important to American national security? The U.S. national security enterprise is undergoing a profound transition. As the world moves toward cyber and information-centric modes of conflict, cognitive and intellectual diversity will arguably play a more decisive role in determining success—more so than the number of infantry divisions, aircraft carriers, or fighter wings a nation can deploy. National security organizations must therefore transform to fully leverage all available talent and innovation in the national security sector to drive success across the spectrum of conflict around the world. The complexity and interconnectedness of nations around the world make effective national security strategy development and operations extremely challenging. Boiled down, successful national security strategy, policy, and operations ensure the continued existence of nations and their way of life. This mandate places immense pressure on presidents when they build their senior leadership team. Presidents must choose a team to deter and defeat potential threats, and thus can neither afford poor nor ineffective leadership.
Topic:: Gender Issues, National Security, Women, Leadership, and Diversity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9875. Do Morals Matter? A Conversation with Dr. Joseph Nye

Author:: Joseph S. Nye, Grady Jacobsen, and Alex Betley
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Welcome, Dr. Nye, to The Fletcher Security Review. Thank you very much for spending time with us today. Before we discuss your recent book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, would you mind speaking first about the origins of your career? Many readers of FSR are young professionals pursuing careers in diplomacy and national security. I am sure they would appreciate hearing that background. Joeseph Nye (JN): Well, I came to Harvard to do a Ph.D. Thinking I was going to go into the State Department, I thought it might be useful to have a Ph.D. but, in the process, I wound up doing some teaching and enjoyed it. I went and did my thesis in Africa and enjoyed writing about that. When Harvard offered me a job, I thought I would take it for a little while. A “little while” turned out to be quite a long while. I emphasize this to say that if you do not have all your career moves figured out at this stage, not to worry about it. Leave room for serendipity. In any case, as it turned out, I enjoy the writing and the research. After working in Africa, I went to Central America, and then spent some time in Europe looking primarily at regional integration and then broadened out to a number of things related to trade. . .
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Ethics, Interview, and World System
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

9876. Post-Covid Security Landscape: A Conversation with Raffaelo Pantucci

Author:: Raffaello Pantucci
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Thank you for joining FSR today. To begin, what challenges do you believe countries or security practitioners will face in preventing terrorism or countering violent terrorism in a postCOVID-19 world? Raffaelo Pantucci (RP): There are going to be a lot of challenges. The difficulty with trying to make judgments about what is going to happen in a post-COVID world is that we are not in the post-COVID world yet. We are still in the midst of the pandemic, so a lot of this work and assumptions that we look into are based on assessments of what we think could happen. I think a number of things will happen. First, I think we are going to see real pressure on security forces’ resources. On the one hand, kinetic security forces—police and intelligence services—probably will not suffer too much. But the real dilemma will come with some of the upstream funding. Money is being used to try to stop people from being drawn to violent groups in the first place. Countering violent extremism projects will face immense challenges since it is very hard to understand and make direct causal links between the issues the programs are addressing and the ultimate threats. We are going to see a push on budgets and that will result in cuts for security forces. These will have an impact in different ways in different places. Unfortunately, terrorist threats are global. You can have a good grip on your threat matrix, but it has links across borders which are beyond your control. This creates a potential risk if a country you are connected to does not have a grip on their security and are under the same sort of budgetary pressures, then it is possible you will see a negative knockon effect.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Interview, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9877. Grievance in Space and Time: The State, Militias, and the Irredentist Temptation

Author:: Bradford McGuinn
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The armed militia is an emblem of political decay. With the weakening of institutions designed to regulate the ambitions and anxieties of those inhabiting a state, and with the erosion of a political culture meant to confer legitimacy upon the rituals of governance, martial energy once held to constitutional prescription in the service of impersonal public rule can be redirected toward private purpose. Dissenting factions within a governmental structure, groups seeking its overthrow, or militias fighting within society itself challenge the viability of states, stability in their regions, and international order. This essay will consider ways in which narratives of grievance play dangerously upon the triangular system of mutual obligation that ideally orders interaction between a state, society, and the military. In this configuration of civil-military relations, the state exercises a “legitimate monopoly” on the production of violence, binding militaries to civilian control. Acting as an acid upon the alloy of this triangle, allowing leakage of “privatized” violence, is a dissatisfaction with a configuration of geography, politics, and culture of such intensity that reality can be considered oppressive.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, State, and Militias
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9878. Losing the Long Game: A Conversation with Phillip Gordon (Interviewed by Zach A. Shapiro)

Author:: Philip Gordon and Zach Shapiro
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Dr. Gordon, it’s a pleasure to introduce you to our audience. Your new book, Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, is fascinating and we are excited to hear about it. To get us started, could you briefly describe your argument? Philip Gordon (PG): In briefest form, as the title of the book indicates, the argument is that regime change in the Middle East doesn’t turn out very well. I’ll just unpack that a little bit. First, by “regime change” what I’m talking about is when the United States sets out as a matter of policy to bring about a different government and political system in a country for whatever reason. It’s not when it happens naturally or internally. We have to have it as a policy and we have to do something about it. It turns out that we’ve done this fairly regularly in the post-World War II period. In fact, we’ve done it on average about once per decade. In the book, I look back all the way to the first time in 1953, to the CIA-backed coup in Iran, and look at all the episodes for the track record. I started thinking about this in particular as the Trump administration was pivoting towards what looked like a regime-change policy in Iran. It wasn’t their official, announced policy, but it looks like that’s what they were trying to achieve in Iran. That led me to think more about the track record: when have we done this before, why have we done it, and how it has turned out?...
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regime Change, and Interview
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

9879. An Enduring Contribution? Australia's Term on the United Nations Security Council (2013-2014)

Author:: Michael Bliss and Gary Quinlan
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As Australia took up its role as an elected member of the United Nations Security Council for 2013-2014, the challenges ahead were all too apparent. Dynamics between the five permanent members were particularly tense. Options for elected members to make a serious contribution appeared more limited than ever. The Council was unable to find consensus on how to address the most pressing threats to international peace and security. As political coordinator for Australia’s Security Council delegation across the Council’s 2013-2014 term, Michael Bliss had a unique insight into the workings of the Council, into Australia’s contributions, and into the relationships and diplomacy that underpinned the outcomes achieved. This monograph, published six years after Australia’s fifth Council term concluded, seeks to contextualise Australia’s work during its term, and to track how those contributions have endured and resonated in subsequent years. As a senior officer of Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a specialist in multilateral affairs, an experienced diplomat and international lawyer, and an unrelenting optimist, Bliss is well placed to tell this recent story of Australian diplomacy. In doing so, he makes a compelling case that it is in Australia’s interests to seek to again “serve with distinction” as an elected member on the Security Council, in 2029-2030. Based on Australia’s experience in 2013-2014, Gary Quinlan AO, former Australian Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Australia to the United Nations (2009-2014) in his afterword asks the question of whether the Council has a future? Australia is a declared candidate for election for the 2029-2030 term but what kind of Council might we face and what are the dynamics that will affect our role?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Australia

9880. The Vote for Cambodia: Australia's Diplomatic Intervention

Author:: Richard Broinowski
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Under the supervision of the United Nations, Cambodia held its first democratic elections on the 23rd May 1993, an event which was hailed as a monumental victory for democracy. Australia played a prominent role in the lead-up. However, optimism that free and fair elections would continue to be held as a matter of course was eroded during the following years, and finally ended following the forced dissolution of Cambodia’s major opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party, in 2017. Reflecting on his own experiences as a diplomat in the Department of External Affairs, Richard Broinowski AO dissects the impact of Australia’s contribution to the emergence of contemporary Cambodia. Whilst Australia played a prominent role in supporting the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia to stabilise the region, it’s efforts to build a lasting democratic system is proving to be in vain. In this first-hand account, Broinowski strings together archival documents and private conversations with senior officials to recount Australia’s role in Cambodia’s tumultuous rise and evaluate the future of peace and stability in the country.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Election Observation
Political Geography:: Asia and Cambodia

9881. Taiwan, Cross-Strait Tension, and Security in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Bryce Wakefield
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Tensions across the Taiwan Strait are rising and are potentially more serious than crises in the 1990s and even the 1950s. Military activity around Taiwan has increased, with China’s largest daily incursion into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone occurring in October 2021. Nevertheless, experts disagree as to whether such activity signals China’s intent to go to war over Taiwan or whether Beijing is posturing to a nervous international community. What is the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan? Could accidents around the island spark all-out hostilities? How should states in the region, like Australia and Japan, react to the current situation? How is the increased tension perceived in Taipei?
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

9882. Trade and Supply Chain Issues for Taiwan and Australia

Author:: Bryce Wakefield
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Covid-19 has disrupted supply chains around the world, while political movements in the United States and Europe that predate the pandemic have raised the prospect that we are once more living in a world where regionalism and nationalism trump global integration of trade. China, meanwhile, has made it clear that it sees trade as a tool in its political statecraft, a factor that has been keenly felt in the region. Nervous actors in the Indo-Pacific are looking to diversify their trade away from China, but do nations in the region have many choices? What does this mean for Taiwan-Australia trade relations? How does Taiwan’s ambiguous position in the international system relate to recent trade agreements? Where do Taiwan and Australia, as mid-level powers, sit within the global trading order?
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia

9883. The Interactions of International Relations: Racism, Colonialism, Producer-Centred Research

Author:: Deep K. Datta-Ray
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The racial hierarchy underscoring colonialism persists, organises core-periphery interactions and so undermines International Relations’ (IR’s) purpose of accounting and explaining to mitigate violence. Despite IR’s awareness of its colonialism, it reconstitutes in the hermeneutic’s deductive and inductive method via aphasia (calculated forgetting) about its heuristic: diplomacy. The result, analytic-violence or the core’s heuristic corrupting interaction with the periphery. Yet, its evasiveness testifies to a meaningfulness beyond IR’s hermeneutic. Irretrievably corrupted by its heuristic, IR’s hermeneutic is ejected for an altogether new hermeneutic: Producer-Centred Research (PCR). Eschewing deduction and induction, and so colonialism, PCR initiates with abduction or a problem arising from theory and practice to resolve it in terms of rationality because of its, and the problem’s, significance. Changing “rationality” to “rationalities” registers the core’s rationality as colonialism while preventing it from contaminating PCR’s collection and assessment of peripheral practices to determine if they cohere into another rationality. Moreover, treating peripheral practitioners authoritatively, as capable of rationalising themselves and thus equal to rationality, further protects PCR from aphasia. Verifying efficacy shows PCR’s decolonisation of the hermeneutic is not entirely replicated externally, amongst IR scholars. The core engages PCR, but it incites violence in the periphery which defends rationality and so is colonialism’s bastion, now.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Colonialism, Eurocentrism, Racism, and Hermeneutics
Political Geography:: India and Global Focus

9884. Hedging as a Survival Strategy for Small States: The Case of Kuwait

Author:: İsmail Numan Telci
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Strategic hedging has not been studied adequately in Middle Eastern countries. This study is an attempt to include hedging into the analysis of a small state’s foreign policy choices. It contends that the hedging strategy can be applied to small states because of its confrontation at three levels: international, regional and sub-regional. It is argued that Kuwait has pursued a hedging policy by taking possible shifts in the global and regional power distribution and the lasting regional security dilemma into consideration. By strengthening military cooperation with China and Turkey, Kuwait has aimed to hedge the risks that could arise from the rise of China and Turkey in the Gulf, the US’ retrenchment from the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia’s aggressiveness. The main purpose of this strategy is analysed as a move to empower the regional alliance with Turkey, ensuring Kuwait’s security and warding off potential risks from the changing dynamics of the Middle East.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Affairs, and Hedging
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

9885. A Government Devoid of Strong Leadership: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation of Turkey’s Iraq War Decision in 2003

Author:: Samet Yılmaz
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This study deals with Turkey’s Iraq War Decision that led up to the March 1 Parliamentary Motion Crisis in 2003 from the perspective of neoclassical realism, which analyzes the interaction between systemic and unit-level variables. The United States requested Turkey’s collaboration in the war against Iraq. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government initially sought a peaceful settlement but eventually decided to align with the United States. Systemic and structural factors made cooperation with the United States an imperative for Turkey, which may be classified as a secondary state in the regional context. While the domestic political environment was favorable for the Turkish government to reach such a decision, it was hindered by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNAT). In this framework, the study has two primary purposes. The first is to prove that in restrictive international environments where opportunities and threats are clear and the decision-making process is constrained by time, domestic divisions may matter in foreign policy and prevail over the systemic imperative, contrary to conventional expectations. The second is to demonstrate that in a restrictive international milieu, strong leadership, a factor underappreciated by neoclassical realists, is essential even for single-party governments, which are normally expected to have greater autonomy in democratic parliamentary systems, to formulate foreign policy.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Leadership, Domestic Politics, Iraq War, Political Parties, and Neoclassical Realism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9886. Tianxia (All-Under-Heaven): An Alternative System or a Rose by another Name?

Author:: Mehmet Şahin
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Tianxia is considered as an alternative institutionalization to govern the international system. It refers to world governance that is regulated by a world institution. Accordingly, a world institution plays the harmonizer role under this system. States, on the other hand, choose their economic models and the leader organizes the relations among different units. This paper thus argues that Tianxia is an alternative framework to Western-oriented IR theories. In that sense, this article aims to explore the similarities between the philosophical idea of Tianxia and Western-oriented IR Theory. More specifically, the article explores the issue from the international system perspective. The epistemological gaps and ontological similarities between the two frameworks will be demonstrated.
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, International Relations Theory, and International System
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

9887. Reputation Building as a Strategy for Terror Group Survival

Author:: Efe Tokdemir
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the power the terror group derives from its reputation. The reputation, which depends on policies and actions the group takes within their constituency, determines the degree to which each group can find recruits, resources, and support for its cause. I contend that terror groups investing on positive or negative reputation within their constituency— the people they claim to represent==are likely to survive longer. Yet, I argue, building a positive reputation has a greater impact on a group’s staying power given that this attracts loyal and committed supporters. Conversely, groups with no clearly defined reputation-building policies undergo an organizational change. I find support for my expectations by testing my arguments over all domestic terror groups active between 1980 and 2011 using the RTG and GTD databases. The findings reveal that once a terrorist group is formed, it is exceedingly difficult to obliterate it so long as it follows a clear reputational strategy to achieve their goals.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Group Survival, and Reputation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9888. Exogenous Dynamics and Leadership Traits: A Study of Change in the Personality Traits of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Author:: Ali Balcı and Ibrahim Efe
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Do leadership attributes change/persist with experience in office, and after a dramatic event? Answers to this agent-structure question represent the main division line between dispositional and situational theorists. While the first posits that leader’s actions are a product of configuration imposed by experience, and traumatic events, the latter focuses on persistent set of beliefs in leaders. This paper aims at testing the role of these two variables, experience, and traumatic event, on the personality of political leaders with a special focus on Recep Tayyip Erdogan. To recover the personality attributes of Erdogan, and measure their resilience or weakness against experience and traumatic events, the paper uses Leadership Trait Analysis (LTA) developed by Margaret Hermann. LTA assumes that leaders’ choice of certain words in public speeches reflects their personality traits, through which they can be compared with other leaders, and even themselves in different roles and times.
Topic:: Leadership, Trauma, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Personality, and Trait Analysis
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9889. At the Brink of Nuclear War: Feasibility of Retaliation and the U.S. Policy Decisions During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Author:: Yang Gyu Kim and Félix E. Martín
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Recent studies in nuclear deterrence show that nuclear punishment is infeasible in most cases due to the opponent’s second-strike capability, tactical redundancy, and the logic of self-deterrence. However, if the challenge against nuclear deterrence is expected to go unpunished, the deterrent policy is not credible and will likely fail. Can the defender violently punish the challenger possessing nuclear weapons? If it can, under what conditions? Thanks to President Kennedy’s tape recordings, the Cuban Missile Crisis provides researchers an exceptional laboratory for testing various theories on the defender’s policy choices after deterrence failure. This article derives a research hypothesis and its competing counterpart and examines their respective explanatory power via a process-tracing analysis of key members within the Executive Committee during the crisis. The study finds that the challenger’s feasibility of retaliating with atomic weapons is a crucial predictor for the defender’s policy choices.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, History, Deterrence, Credibility, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Feasibility
Political Geography:: Cuba and United States of America

9890. Access to Data on Children in Turkey: An Evaluation Based on the Urban95 Project Experience

Author:: Bürge Elvan Erginli and Gizem Fidan
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Nowadays, the need for the use of data in developing an accurate, effective and measurable urban policy is being voiced by many local administrations and civil society organizations, and as a matter of fact, some local administrations have already increased their efforts for data production and use. However, organizations face with certain problems in regard to accessing, obtaining and generating systematic data. The purpose of this report is to put forward these problems along with their reasons and to offer solutions by focusing specifically on data regarding early childhood period.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Children, Urban, and Data
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9891. Data-Driven Strategy Development for Children’s Play in the City

Author:: Bora İyiat
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: When we consider which areas in the city children use to explore, socialize and play, the first ones coming to mind are school gardens, parks, green areas and playgrounds that are reserved for them with the intent to support their development. These areas which have an important place in the daily urban life of children are designed and planned by local governments. All urban and green spaces, including playgrounds which are areas created especially for children in the city, should be based on spatial planning and quality factors that include children’s needs and preferences. And planning requires the use of data.
Topic:: Governance, Children, Urban, Sustainability, Data, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9892. COVID-19 and Data-Driven Urban Resilience Policies

Author:: Bahadir Keşan and Ayşe Yetiş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The process of COVID-19 pandemic has once again revealed the significance of urban resilience in the face of sudden crises. As the pandemic process has taken longer, urban life has been seriously affected in economic, social and environmental terms; local governments have also begun to develop new policies to restructure the cities so as to adapt to the changes faced. In this brief, Strategy Development Directors of Sultanbeyli and Maltepe Municipalities share their collaboration experience for data driven urban resilience policies during the pandemic.
Topic:: Governance, Sustainability, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9893. Sürdürülebilir Kent İçin Veriye Erişim: Afet ve Bina Verisi Üzerinden Bir İnceleme (Access To Data For Sustainable City: An Overview on Disaster and Building Data)

Author:: Bilge Kobaş, Bürge Elvan Erginli, Can Sucuoğlu, and Murat Tülek
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This report aims at improving innovation, urban data collection and analysis, and open data capacities in democratic civic governance in Turkey. “Access to Data for Sustainable City: An Investigation on Disaster and Building Data” focuses on (1) status quo of open data movement and ongoing studies, (2) data up-to-dateness and quality, and (3) access to data through disaster and building data in Istanbul, New York and Munich. Inspired by the experiences in the cities of New York and Munich, the report presents policy recommendations fro improved access to data regarding disaster management in Istanbul.
Topic:: Governance, Cities, Sustainability, Data, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Turkey, Germany, and United States of America

9894. Work and Gender in Turkey’s Export-Oriented Agriculture: The Case of Sweet Cherries

Author:: Nil Alt
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Situated within this global agri-food context, the purpose of this policy note is to examine the production process for the most prominent high value fruit grown in Turkey, the sweet cherry. This will serve to make problems embedded in relations of production visible. Based on my ethnographic fieldwork of the export-driven sweet cherry sector, conducted between 2018 and 2021 in three different production sites, I will make some suggestions to inform more democratic and equitable social policies.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Exports, and Equity
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

9895. The City and the Citizen: Breaking Down Barriers to Active Citizenship

Author:: Didem Cakmakli
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: Ideally, democracies are built on the ability of all segments of society to participate in civil society to enhance their community’s well-being or to claim rights. Participation in civic and political activities is a key feature of equal citizenship. Sociopolitical features of a city may influence participation, developing different citizenship practices at the local level. Cities will differ in the types of CSOs that thrive, the particular grievances that CSOs address and the types of civic activities that prevail. This study examines how different sociopolitical settings in Turkey impact the development of active citizenship practices among participants in civil society organizations (CSOs). The conditions under which CSO participation may develop active citizenship is key to understanding the potential transformation of hierarchical and passive conceptualizations and practices of citizenship at the national level in Turkey. The study is based on semi-structured interviews conducted in three cities in Turkey. Findings reveal that sociopolitical differences foster the development of different dimensions of active citizenship at the urban level and hence challenge different legacies of citizenship in Turkey.
Topic:: Civil Society, Citizenship, Urban, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

9896. Conservative Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and Anti-Gender Issues in Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland

Author:: Elif Tektas and Asuman Ozgur Keysan
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The anti-gender movement has been gaining prominence since the 2000s, supporting the idea that gender theory is wrong and unscientific. Conservative civil society organizations (CSOs) have played a leading role in promoting the ideas and demands of the movement. Recent studies have elaborated on the relationship between right-wing populism, Church and anti-gender movement; however, it is still significant to further the studies focussing on the involvement of conservative CSOs in the movement. To serve this aim, this paper will analyze the role of conservative CSOs in the anti-gender movement in Eastern Europe, with particular focus on three conservative groups in Croatia, Slovakia and Poland, providing a ground against gender equality politics. The online presence of three groups – “Vigilare”, “Aliancia za rodinu”, and Centrum Wspierania Inicjatyw dla Życia i Rodziny" will be investigated with thematic analysis. This study argues that contrary to the linear relationship between civil society and democratization established by the mainstream liberal view, conservative CSOs operating within anti-gender movements work to the detriment of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Conservatism, LGBT+, Sexuality, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Croatia, and Slovakia

9897. Tea Farming Industry in Turkey and Social Economic History 1920-1960

Author:: Rahsan Inal
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: This study aims to present the economic and social history of the tea farming industry in Turkey between 1920-1960. In Turkey, the “domestic tea” farming industry was initiated and continued under an initiative led by the nation-state at all stages. The present study investigates the historical process between 1920 and 1960 based on news reports from the central and local press, agricultural journals of the time, and parliamentary records, using also local, and regional historical resources. The state-led initiative is considered both an intervention that regulated social and economic structure in rural areas and a policy to encourage “domestic” tea consumption. The reasons underlying this intervention are addressed in two periods. In the first period, the primary goal was to overcome social and economic problems specific to Rize, the central city of tea cultivation, and the Eastern Black Sea Region, of which Rize is a part. In the second period of the state-led tea farming initiative, the goal was to complete the goals of the preceding period, and to satisfy the domestic demand for tea consumption through “national self-sufficiency” policies, and to start tea exports in the years to come. As a consequence of these efforts, not only tea has become a drink easily accessible by all social classes in Turkey today, but also the social structure in the tea-producing rural areas has been transformed.
Topic:: Agriculture, Nation-State, Industry, Farming, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

9898. The Growing Complexity of Farmer-Herder Conflict in West and Central Africa

Author:: Leif Brottem
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The rise of farmer-herder violence in Africa is more pernicious than fatality figures alone since it is often amplified by the emotionally potent issues of ethnicity, religion, culture, and land.
Topic:: Agriculture, Religion, Culture, Ethnicity, Conflict, Land, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa

9899. Collaborative Policing and Negotiating Urban Order in Abidjan

Author:: Maxime Ricard and Kouame Felix Grodji
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Community-based security groups are emerging in African cities in response to rising crime and overstretched police forces. Experience from Abidjan shows that collaboration with the police, avoiding coercive tactics, and retaining citizen oversight councils are key to the effectiveness of these groups.
Topic:: Civil Society, Crime, Urban, Police, and Community Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Ivory Coast

9900. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?

Author:: Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

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