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12001. Effects of Sanctions on North Korea’s Refined Oil Prices

Author:
Kyoochul Kim
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
During 2016 and 2017, North Korea conducted three nuclear tests and four missile launches, and, in response, the international community strengthened its sanctions against North Korea. The sanctions were aimed at deterring North Korea from developing nuclear weapons; the means to achieve this included blocking the inflow of foreign currency into North Korea and banning the import of goods related to its nuclear development efforts. Specifically, the sanctions against North Korea banned the exports of anthracite, processed garments, and marine products to limit its foreign currency acquisition; they banned the import of machinery; and they limited the amount of oil (crude oil and refined oil products) introduced, thus hurting its economy.
Topic:
Oil, Sanctions, Weapons, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

12002. Inequality beyond GDP: A Long View

Author:
Leandro Prados de la Escosura
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the past century and a half, substantial gains in wellbeing have been achieved across the board. This can be observed for the main dimensions of well‐​being: health, education, political voice, civil liberties, personal security, and material well‐​being. However, in the study of international well‐​being and its distribution, the focus remains on income. My research addresses multidimensional well‐​being and raises some questions. How have the gains from well‐​being dimensions been distributed? Do relative and absolute inequality move together? What drives relative inequality? Which parts of the distribution achieved larger gains over time in relative and absolute terms?
Topic:
GDP, Inequality, Economic Policy, and Well-Being
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12003. Impact of Colonial Institutions on Economic Growth and Development in India: Evidence from Night Lights Data

Author:
Priyaranjan Jha and Karan Talathi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Many cross‐​country studies find that quality of historical institutions is a major cause of disparity in present‐​day economic development as measured by income per capita. Due to the unavailability of data on a comprehensive measure of development such as per capita income, studies examining the role of historical institutions on development at the subnational levels use alternate proxies of economic well‐​being in their analysis. We examine the long‐​term effects of British colonial institutions on overall economic development within India using satellite night lights data.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Colonialism, Economic Policy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

12004. Discrimination, Managers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from “Aryanizations” in Nazi Germany

Author:
Killian Huber, Volker Lindenthal, and Fabian Waldinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Large‐​scale increases in discrimination can lead to dismissals of highly qualified business leaders and managers. Discriminatory expulsions of individuals holding important positions in the economy have occurred repeatedly, both historically and in modern times. Recent political developments have renewed interest in the economic effects of this type of discrimination. For instance, the U.S. travel ban on citizens of seven Muslim‐​majority countries has raised fears among large corporations that increasing discrimination will leave them unable to retain talent.
Topic:
History, Economy, Business, Discrimination, and Nazi Germany
Political Geography:
Germany and United States of America

12005. Why U.S. Immigration Barriers Matter for the Global Advancement of Science

Author:
Ruchi Agarwal and Patrick Gaule
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
While talent can be born anywhere, few places specialize in nurturing it. Accordingly, talented individuals have pursued opportunities abroad for centuries. For instance, Aristotle moved from Northern Greece to Athens to attend Plato’s Academy and then to Macedonia to tutor a young Alexander the Great. More recently, the United States has emerged as a hub for foreign talent, playing an outsized role in the global knowledge network of scientific activity in recent decades. However, the recent introduction of restrictive immigration policies in the United States may adversely impact scientific activity. While studies have examined the potential negative impact of restrictive U.S. immigration policies on U.S. competitiveness in science and innovation, there has been less focus on understanding how U.S. immigration barriers may in turn impact scientific activity globally. In this context, our work studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production and examines which policy actions are more likely to help advance the global knowledge frontier.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Immigration, Border Control, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

12006. The Smoot‐​Hawley Trade War

Author:
Kris James Mitchener, Kirsten Wandschneider, and Kevin H. O'Rourke
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the words of Robert J. Samuelson, “The ghost of Smoot‐​Hawley seems to haunt President Trump.” As fears of a trade war between the United States and China grew after the U.S. presidential election of 2016, many commentators drew this link between the signing of the Smoot‐​Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 and recent trade disputes. And the consensus was that the trade wars of the 1930s were an ominous portent of what might await the world if Donald Trump’s protectionist impulses were not checked.
Topic:
Tariffs, Trade Wars, Economic Policy, and Imports
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

12007. In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA’s Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan

Author:
Monica Martinez-Bravo and Andreas Stegmann
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Trust in the medical sector and in medical products is a key determinant of the demand for health care. This is especially relevant for the use of vaccines. Because of herd immunity, it is difficult—if not impossible—to learn about the effectiveness of vaccines through one’s own experience. Hence, events that discredit the effectiveness of vaccines or the reputation of the medical sector can have dramatic consequences on immunization rates. A commonly discussed example of such dynamics was the publication of an article in the medical journal The Lancet in 1998 that linked autism to the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. Media reports have associated this publication with the emergence of the anti‐​vaccine movement and with the recent rise in the number of unvaccinated children in several countries. The declines in vaccination rates have contributed to the reemergence of previously eradicated diseases in several countries.
Topic:
Public Health, Vaccine, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

12008. The Intended and Unintended Consequences of Disposable Bag Regulation

Author:
Tatiana Homonoff, Lee-Sien Kao, Javiera Selman, and Christina Seybolt
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Many recent government and corporate policies aimed at reducing a variety of negative externalities include regulations that ban the provision of externality‐​generating products. However, these policies often ban only a narrow subset of products associated with the underlying externality. For example, the U.S. Department of Justice banned bump stocks, which assist in rapid‐​fire shooting, after a Las Vegas mass shooting rather than placing stricter regulations on all assault weapons. Similarly, Starbucks recently banned the distribution of plastic straws at its stores to reduce environmental waste, and New York City attempted to pass a restaurant ban on sugar‐​sweetened beverages over 16 ounces to curb obesity.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Regulation, and Corporations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12009. The Economic Geography of Global Warming

Author:
José‐​Luis Cruz
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The world is getting warmer due to carbon emissions generated by the economic activity of humans. Global carbon emissions will affect temperatures everywhere over long periods of time and in geographically different ways. What will be the impact of carbon emissions, and the implied changes in temperatures, on the world economy and on the economies of particular regions? How will individuals react to these changes, and how are these reactions impacted by their ability to migrate, trade, or invest and develop alternative centers of economic activity? What are the best policies to combat global warming, and what are the implications of these policies for different regions across the world? We propose and quantify a novel model to address these questions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Economic Policy, Innovation, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12010. Getting Schooled: The Role of Universities in Attracting Immigrant Entrepreneurs

Author:
Natee Amornsiripanitch, Paul A. Gompers, George Hu, and Kaushik Vasudevan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Immigrants play a vital role in innovation activities and entrepreneurship. Given the substantial contribution of immigrants in these areas, a set of natural questions arise: What are the pathways that high‐​skilled immigrants take to arrive in the United States, and how has the importance of these pathways changed over time? What are important institutions that serve as gatekeepers for high‐​skilled immigrants, and do they affect the types of immigrant founders that come to the United States? Do certain parts of the United States benefit disproportionately from high‐​skilled immigration, and if so, what are some factors that contribute to these benefits? The answers to these questions have important implications for designing immigration policy and regulation, which have become increasingly acrimonious topics in public discourse. They also have important implications for firms and universities that recruit talent from abroad and for the communities that hope to promote vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystems.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Immigrants, Innovation, Higher Education, and Startup
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12011. The internet of things: China’s rise and Australia’s choices

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Internet of Things (IoT) is connecting a growing range of economic and social activity across national borders, while simultaneously expanding the security challenges implied by these connections, including to Chinese state power. Despite US-led efforts to exclude Chinese actors from digital networks worldwide, the economies of East and Southeast Asia are becoming more densely integrated with China through evolving IoT ecosystems and supply chains. These trends threaten to disadvantage Australia and require policies to build up the country’s own technological capacities while devising innovative ways to manage, rather than avoid, the risks entailed in growing digital connections with China.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Internet of Things, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and United States of America

12012. Lines blurred: Chinese community organisations in Australia

Author:
Jennifer Hsu, Richard McGregor, and Natasha Kassam
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s foreign interference debate and the souring of bilateral relations between China and Australia has left many Chinese-Australians and their community organisations caught in a contest for their loyalty. The Chinese Party-state actively reaches out to overseas Chinese communities, in Australia and elsewhere, to promote China’s political interests and economic development, with mixed results. Australia’s efforts to combat this outreach have also had mixed results. A survey of Chinese-Australians found that many believed the new anti-foreign interference laws helped to protect community members from Beijing’s overtures. However, a greater number said attacks on the community in Australia — political, verbal, and sometimes physical — had alienated Chinese-Australians and in some cases made them more receptive to messages critical of Australia. Many Chinese-Australians said they had little or no engagement with Chinese community organisations. The newer organisations in particular, which often have closer economic ties to China, were not considered to be representative of broader community sentiment. The area in which community associations were reported to have the greatest traction was in promoting business opportunities in China.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Foreign Interference, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

12013. China, climate politics and COP26

Author:
Sam Geall
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There is no credible emissions pathway towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C without significant movements from China over the next decade to accelerate its energy transition and decarbonisation. China aims to become carbon-neutral by 2060. Yet Beijing is hedging in the near term, in part due to an uncertain global macro and geopolitical environment, and in part due to domestic threats of social instability and economic stagnation. China’s negotiating position at COP26 in Glasgow stands to benefit from support from many developing countries — unless the United States and other rich countries make an effective alternative appeal to the Global South with respect to climate finance, mitigation and adaptation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

12014. Translating tension: Chinese-language media in Australia

Author:
Fan Yang
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Chinese-language media outlets in Australia are more likely to support Australian government policy than Chinese government policy when reporting on tensions in the Australia–China relationship, but editorialise to soften or remove criticism of China and the Chinese government. This is, in part, because Chinese-language media outlets in Australia produce little original content, and instead translate and reproduce the majority of their content from Australian, rather than Chinese, news sources. Chinese-language media professionals say they prefer to re-publish Australian content because this helps Chinese migrants integrate into society. However, self-censorship is embedded in these media organisations’ editorial processes. This is particularly the case for Chinese-language media outlets whose content is distributed to mainland China via WeChat, news apps, and websites. Outlets self-censor out of concerns for a loss of market share and reprisals from Beijing.
Topic:
Diaspora, Media, News Analysis, and Translation
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

12015. Australia and the growing reach of China’s military

Author:
Thomas Shugart
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China’s recent military development constitutes the greatest expansion of maritime and aerospace power in generations and is most obviously seen in its expanding long-range missile force, bomber force, and modernising blue-water navy. While Australia’s defence interests and territorial integrity are largely unthreatened for now, a future Indo-Pacific dominated by China would present a grave possibility of military coercion by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. The prospect of Chinese military action against Australia remains remote. But China has the military and industrial potential to field a long-range power projection capacity that would dwarf anything Japan threatened Australia with during the Second World War.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Maritime, Military, and Aerospace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

12016. Bridging Papua New Guinea’s information divide

Author:
Shane McLeod
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Access to reliable public information is critical for Papua New Guinea as it heads towards national elections in mid-2022. The country’s public broadcaster needs urgent support to keep radio transmitters on air and to reach ‘disconnected’ audiences who have no other means of receiving public information. Australia should support Papua New Guinea to upgrade the National Broadcasting Corporation’s radio transmission capacity ahead of the vote by funding transmitter upgrades in under-served towns and regions, and by trialling a national shortwave service broadcast from offshore to provide coverage to the entire country. While the National Broadcasting Corporation implements medium-term strategies to achieve nationwide coverage, it will need to restructure its operations based on a more efficient regional production model, and focus on making its broadcast transmission operations financially and technically sustainable.
Topic:
Elections, Media, Radio, and Public Information
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Papua New Guinea

12017. The missing anchor: Why the EU should join the CPTPP

Author:
Peter Draper and Naoise McDonagh
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a twenty-first century trade accord that aims to secure a level playing field and rules-based trade environment in the Indo-Pacific. Yet in the absence of the United States, it risks underachieving on this goal. The European Union (EU) is the only global actor with the trade preferences and requisite economic heft to provide a similar anchoring function for market-orientated trade as was envisioned for the United States in the CPTPP. An EU accession bid to the CPTPP would require overcoming major hurdles and reservations, not least in Brussels. The gains in surmounting them, however, would be considerable. Any EU accession process should avoid jeopardising the possibility of a return of the United States to the multilateral trade agreement. An equivalence regime for regulations where CPTPP members are not in alignment with EU standards could in principle open the possibility of the EU and the United States eventually co-habiting within the CPTPP, however remote or delayed the prospect. Australia should use its status as a founding CPTPP member to advocate for EU accession to the trade agreement. Engaging Europe on the future of the multilateral trade architecture in Asia presents a key area of potential convergence between Brussels and Canberra, following a setback in strategic ties caused by the Australian cancellation of a French-led submarine contract.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

12018. Gender-responsive Budgeting in Tanzania

Author:
Bertha O. Koda and Lilian V Mtasingwa
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Constitution and laws of the United Republic of Tanzania require the use of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB) to promote gender-balanced and integrated national economic plans. It is at the village level where community budget needs are identified, though women’s needs are often marginalized. Although women are best at articulating their needs, their voices are seldom raised owing to limited representation. Government budgets typically sideline the needs of small-scale female farmers for access to land, markets, credit, and extension services, especially compared with male farmers. Instead, budgets designed to address general farmers’ needs, such as markets and loans for inputs and storage for surplus harvests, are directed primarily to farmers who grow strategic crops, who are mainly men. Tanzania provides for a separate budget facility for women and youth, and although most interviewees from the grassroots and the government consider this as evidence of a gender budget, it reflects a limited knowledge of GRB. Some projects supported by nongovernmental organizations and civil society organizations reflect women’s and men’s diverse needs, a feature that government budgeting should emulate. Communities need to be empowered to challenge constraints to their participation in decision making on budgets related to their priority needs. Citizens must be involved in all phases of the budget process and cycle. Government officials and institutions must be provided with adequate GRB knowledge and skills so they can use available democratic systems and structures to empower communities to engage in GRB.
Topic:
Governance, Rule of Law, Diversity, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

12019. Gender-Responsive Budgeting in Agriculture in Ethiopia

Author:
Nuru Hussen, Ermias Mengistu, and Bedaso Taye
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The gender division of labor in Ethiopia hinders women smallholders’ efforts to improve productivity to close the gap with men’s farms. There is substantial evidence that where women have access to the same inputs and training as men, they can close that gap. The government’s national development plan identifies agriculture as the main driver of rapid and inclusive growth. The plan seeks to increase women’s participation in agriculture to 50 percent of all participants. But this can only happen with proper implementation of gender-responsive budgeting (GRB). Ethiopia has ratified a number of international conventions and agreements on women’s rights that have guided development of national laws and policies. Nonetheless, the national budgetary process is not yet gender responsive, and the country faces other challenges. Low awareness of gender issues, limited technical skill in mainstreaming gender issues and GRB, lack of adequate resources, and poor enforcement mechanisms are major constraints. A majority of women do not participate in decision-making or express their needs during public meetings because of sociocultural barriers that elevate the role of males. Women are usually not invited to meetings and discussions that concern them, under the assumption that men can convey any relevant messages. But information does not consistently get passed to women farmers owing to the erroneous perception that “women do not farm.” Women’s low levels of literacy and limited exposure to information and support by development practitioners also contribute to the problem. As a result, women are often unable to exercise their rights during program design and implementation. If agriculture is to lead inclusive development, gender and rural development policies need updating. In addition, achieving high-quality agricultural public spending will require a conducive policy environment and a budget process that promotes the participation and well-being of women and girls as well as men and boys.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Labor Issues, Farming, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

12020. The World Bank in Asia: An assessment of COVID-19-related investments through a care lens. Care-responsive investments and development finance

Author:
Bist Joshi and Dharmistha Chauhan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
International financial institutions (IFIs) have been playing a vital role in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and will play an equally important role in the recovery and ‘build back anew’ agenda. This is particularly true of the World Bank Group (WBG), given its high volumes of committed investments across sectors, especially in low-income and vulnerable countries. This report presents, through case studies, how care-responsive the World Bank’s COVID-19-related investments have been in four member countries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal and the Philippines. It does so by using the Care Principles and Care-Responsiveness Barometer for IFIs to assess the nature of the WBG’s COVID-19 investments in these select countries, and by building evidence through a gender- and care-responsive budget review. The report demonstrates that the Bank has a foundation for care-inclusion upon which to build, and urges it to adopt a more comprehensive care-responsive approach to its operations in order to move towards rebuilding a more gender-just and equal future.
Topic:
World Bank, Finance, Investment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia

12021. Coronavirus Relief Fund: Review of Federal Fiscal Assistance and of Innovative County Response Strategies

Author:
Richard Callahan, Lisa Gordon, and Christopher Morrill
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration
Abstract:
The United States began to experience impact from the global COVID-19 outbreak in late January 2020. States, counties, and localities were almost immediately affected, and faced unprecedented challenges in providing services to meet the urgent needs of their communities. Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2020 in late March, providing over $2 trillion to help cover the needs of affected individuals, families, and businesses. The Coronavirus Relief Fund (CRF) – part of the CARES Act – provided direct assistance to state, local, and tribal governments, and designated $150 billion for counties with populations of more than 500,000. The National Association of Counties (NACo) asked the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to evaluate how well the CRF funding supported counties in addressing the pandemic and to review the effectiveness of the CRF federal aid package and its implementation. Additionally, they asked the Academy to identify and document innovative strategies employed by six specific counties using CRF funds and to highlight their approaches to address social equity. With the guidance of an Expert Advisory Group (EAG) of Academy Fellows, the Academy’s report presents findings and recommendations that can improve both current and future federal-to-local programs such as the CRF. It also highlights how these innovative counties responded to the challenges their residents faced as a result of COVID-19—examples that could be used by other counties in similar circumstances. I deeply appreciate our EAG members who contributed valuable insights and expertise throughout the project and the Academy Study Team that delivered focused research and analysis. The constructive engagement of NACo employees, as well as current and former federal officials and our broader community of Academy Fellows who have special expertise in intergovernmental relations and operations, was equally vital. They provided important knowledge and context that informed this report. We also owe special thanks to the administrators and leaders of the six counties – Cook County, Illinois; Franklin County, Ohio; Hennepin County, Minnesota; Lee County, Florida; New Castle County, Delaware; and Pierce County, Washington – who took time out of their demanding schedules while addressing the ongoing effects of the pandemic to provide information to us about their challenges and initiatives. This report provides information to federal policy makers on how they can better address the lasting effects of the pandemic and enhance relationships between the multiple levels of government in the United States. I trust that this report also will be useful to NACo as it continues to represent and support its constituents and that the county examples herein will be especially helpful to others facing similar challenges.
Topic:
Governance, Local, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Funding
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12022. UK Green Growth Index

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by the challenges of the net zero transition, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. The transition to net zero will require substantial investment and adaptation across the UK economy. This will create unique opportunities for British businesses to innovate, produce, and supply the goods and services needed to enable the transition, not only in the UK but globally. At the same time, for many parts of the economy the transition will create challenges due to the need to adapt products, processes, and skills. Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by these challenges, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. Our research suggests that green growth opportunities are especially strong in Scotland, given its existing base of green economy activity and its access to a workforce with relevant skills. Similarly, Wales appears well placed to capitalise on green growth opportunities, although it may face greater disruption in the nearer term due to its reliance on high emitting industries. Northern Ireland is also relatively exposed to disruption and may need to accelerate efforts to put in place the factors needed to fully exploit green economy opportunities. Amongst English regions, the South East and South West appear to be best placed to capitalise on the green economy and are less exposed to disruption from the transition than many other parts of the UK. In contrast, Yorkshire and the Humber may face greater disruption and has further to go to develop some of the factors needed to capitalise on green growth. London is somewhat of an outlier: its status as a city-region with a service-orientated economy means it is much less exposed to the challenges than areas which rely more on industrial activity, but it also has less scope to capitalise on green economy opportunities in fields such as manufacturing and energy (although it is well positioned to develop as a centre for green finance and other professional services).
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12023. The Economic Importance of Motorcycles to Europe

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Motorcycle-related activity supports €21.4 billion of output (GDP) across Europe a year, sustains 389,000 jobs, and generates €16.6 billion of tax revenues, according to research by Oxford Economics. This means that in 2019 economic activities associated with motorcycling generated more GDP, and employed more people, than the metropolitan area economies centred on Venice, Malaga, and Palma de Mallorca. The total tax impact would have been sufficient to cover the pay of 380,000 teachers, or some 6.5% of all European teachers. Four-fifths of the total was accounted for by six countries, namely Italy (23%), Germany (20%), France (13%), the UK (11%), Spain (7%), and Austria (7%). This report, commissioned by ACEM, the motorcycle industry in Europe, also investigates the international trade in motorcycles and parts. In 2019, manufacturers in the EU-27 and the UK sold €2.1 billion of these goods to non-European customers—so that exports accounted for 39% of their total sales by value. Even so, European countries had a trade deficit in these products, with imports totalling €4.5 billion. Large quantities are imported from Asian countries where European manufacturers face high import tariffs. These high custom duties protect their domestic markets by making European vehicles relatively more expensive. This report, commissioned by ACEM, the motorcycle industry in Europe, also investigates the international trade in motorcycles and parts. In 2019, manufacturers in the EU-27 and the UK sold €2.1 billion of these goods to non-European customers—so that exports accounted for 39% of their total sales by value. Even so, European countries had a trade deficit in these products, with imports totalling €4.5 billion. Large quantities are imported from Asian countries where European manufacturers face high import tariffs. These high custom duties protect their domestic markets by making European vehicles relatively more expensive.
Topic:
Economics, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, and Motor Vehicles
Political Geography:
Europe

12024. Illicit Cigarette Consumption in Mexico

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This research seeks to quantify the size and scale of the illicit consumption of cigarettes in Mexico, as well as the impact on government revenues, and how this has changed in recent years. This study shows that: In the first half of 2021, an estimated 18.8% of all cigarettes consumed in Mexico were of illicit origin. In volume terms, this was more than 38% higher than the same period in 2019 (pre-Covid level). The rise in Illicit Consumption has been driven by an increased presence of cigarettes without the SAT’s security code – particularly the brands ‘Economicos’ and ‘Link’ – with Domestic Illicit now accounting for around two thirds of total Illicit Consumption in Mexico (up from 50% in 2019). Non Domestic Illicit consumption – primarily consisting of cigarettes originating from China – has been relatively stable over the last few years. Foregone Excise Tax receipts amounted to an estimated 19.4% of total potential Excise Tax revenues in 2021 H1.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tax Systems, Illegal Trade, and Consumption
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

12025. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12026. Assessing the Economic, Societal and Cultural Benefits of YouTube in Brazil

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Read how Oxford Economics and YouTube partnered to identify the economic and societal benefits of YouTube in Brazil. Through our rigorous economic modelling and survey capabilities, we found that, in 2020, YouTube contributed R$3.4 billion to Brazil’s GDP and 122,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our research shows that YouTube fosters significant positive trends for Brazil’s creators in terms of professional goal achievement, business growth, and improved practical skills, as well as serving as a vital resource for teachers and learners
Topic:
Economics, GDP, Social Media, and YouTube
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

12027. The value of franchising

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The franchise business model plays an important role within the U.S. economy. Prior to the pandemic, in 2019, the economic output of franchise establishments in the United States was about $787.5 billion and represented 3% of the country’s GDP. Most people immediately associate franchising with fast food restaurants. However, quick service restaurants are just a fraction of the entire sector, making up only a fourth of all franchised establishments, less than half of the workers, and just over a third of the economic output. Beyond their economic contribution, we find that franchises offer pay, benefits, and training on par with comparable non-franchise small businesses. In addition, 32% of franchisees report they would not own a business if they were not franchisees. Lastly, we highlight how franchisees are embedded in their local communities through their local supply chains and charitable giving.
Topic:
Leadership, Business, and Franchising
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12028. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:
Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12029. Future of Construction

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Future of Construction gives forecasts for global construction to 2030 as well as perspectives on climate related challenges for the construction industry. Global construction output in 2020 was US$10.7 trillion (in 2017 prices and exchange rates) and we expect this to grow by 42% or US$4.5 trillion between 2020 and 2030 to reach US$15.2 trillion. The Global Construction industry is set to be a global engine for economic growth and recovery from COVID. Shorter term, global construction output is expected to reach US$13.3 trillion by 2025 – adding US$2.6 trillion to output in the five years from 2020. Asia Pacific will account for US$2.5 trillion of growth in construction output between 2020 and 2030, up by over 50% to become a US$7.4 trillion market by 2030. Construction output in North America will grow by 32%, or US$580 billion from 2020 to 2030, to US$2.4 trillion in 2030. Western Europe is forecast to grow by 23% between 2020 and 2030 and is expected to push up construction output to US$2.5 trillion in 2030. Average annual growth in construction of 3.6% per annum over the decade to 2030 will be higher than manufacturing or services.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Green Technology, Manufacturing, and Construction
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12030. Economic impact of the global ferry industry

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The global ferry industry comprises companies that own or operate vessels that transport passengers, goods and vehicles over short sea and inland routes. Ferries provide vital connections which enable all types of journey, whether that be local trips to work, study, visit others, or access amenities, or longer trips for business or tourism. Ferries also facilitate trade within and across national borders. Ferries therefore play a pivotal role as an economic and social enabler. As they do so, they sustain significant economic activity in their own right, both directly through the income and employment they support, and through wider supply chain and worker spending effects which benefit other parts of the economy. In this study, commissioned by Interferry, we assess the economic footprint of the global ferry industry. Our modelling suggests the global ferry industry could have supported $60 billion in GDP and 1.1 million jobs globally in 2019.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Maritime Commerce, Labor Issues, Maritime, and Travel
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12031. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12032. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Poland

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in Poland, and its broader impact on society and culture. YouTube enables Polish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €98 million to the Polish economy in 2020 and supported 11,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can build skills and knowledge amongst users; enrich and promote Polish culture; and sustain careers for content creators. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight th the personal stories of successful Polish content creators.
Topic:
Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

12033. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Spain

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
YouTube enables Spanish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €313 million to the Spanish economy in 2020 and supported 21,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can sustain careers for content creators; build skills and knowledge amongst users; and promote Spanish culture to a global audience. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight the personal stories of successful Spanish content creators.
Topic:
Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

12034. AirBnB: An Economic Engine in the EU27

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This study seeks to identify Airbnb’s contribution to: • Economic Impact – Airbnb guests spend in the local area, stimulating the local economy and providing employment opportunities. • Geographical Dispersion – Airbnb’s model results in visitors staying in a wider range of areas within countries outside of the more typical destinations visited. This has helped drive an observed urbanto-rural shift in tourism. • Pandemic Resilience – Throughout the pandemic, Airbnb supported travel to both rural and urban locations within the EU27. Despite the significant fall in travel over the pandemic period, Airbnb’s travel fell less than the industry average, indicating pandemic resilience on the part of Airbnb.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Local, and Travel
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12035. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Italy

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
YouTube enables Italian content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €190 million to the Italian economy in 2020 and supported 15,000 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can sustain careers for content creators; promote Italian culture to a global audience; drive cultural diversity; and support businesses. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19. Alongside the findings from our economic modelling and surveys, we present a series of case studies to highlight the personal stories of successful Italian content creators.
Topic:
Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

12036. Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural benefits of YouTube in Ireland

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
YouTube enables Irish content creators to reach a large domestic and international audience. This supports substantial economic value for those who earn income from the platform, for example as they are paid a share of the revenues from advertising placed alongside their videos. A YouTube presence can also help creators earn revenues from other sources, such as product sales, brand partnerships, or live performance engagements. These revenue sources not only support jobs and income for the creators themselves, but also wider activity in supply chains, and through workers’ spending. In total, our economic modelling suggests that YouTube’s creative ecosystem contributed around €30 million to the Irish economy in 2020 and supported 1,600 full-time equivalent jobs. In this report we outline our economic analysis, as well as the findings of wider survey research to investigate how YouTube can build skills and knowledge amongst users; promote cultural diversity; and sustain careers for content creators. We also highlight how YouTube has proved helpful during Covid-19.
Topic:
Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, YouTube, and Content Analysis
Political Geography:
Europe and Ireland

12037. Economic impact of illicit tobacco in Australia

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, examines the size of the illicit market as well as the economic effects of that market on the national economy. Gains to illicit traders and the potential impact of issues such as money laundering are also discussed. In total, we estimate around $4.9 billion in revenue was lost by the legal economy to the illicit economy by the illicit tobacco trade in 2019. Of the $4.9 billion lost to the legal economy in 2019, we estimate some $2.1 billion flowed to illicit operators.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Tobacco, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Australia

12038. The Evolution of the Earnings Distribution in a Volatile Economy: Evidence from Argentina

Author:
Andres Blanco, Bernardo Diaz de Astarloa, Andres Drenik, Christian Moser, and Danilo Trupkin
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper studies earnings inequality and dynamics in Argentina between 1996 and 2015. Following the 2001–2002 crisis, the Argentine economy transitioned from a low- to a highinflation regime. At the same time, the number of collective bargaining agreements increased, and minimum wage adjustments became more frequent. We document that this macroeconomic transition was associated with a persistent decrease in the dispersion of real earnings and cyclical movements in higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings innovations. To understand this transition at the micro level, we estimate processes of regular wage adjustments within job spells. As the Argentine economy transitioned from low to high inflation, the monthly frequency of regular wage adjustments almost doubled, while the distribution of changes in regular wages morphed from having a mode close to zero and being positively skewed to having a positive mode and being more symmetric.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Inflation, Volatility, and Wages
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

12039. The Risk of Automation in Latin America

Author:
Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, Leonardo Gasparini, and Carlo Lombardo
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in the six largest Latin American economies as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. We combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
Topic:
Employment, Income Inequality, Economy, and Automation
Political Geography:
Latin America

12040. Exports “Brother-boost”: The Tradecreation and Skill-upgrading Effect of Venezuelan Forced Migration on Colombian Manufacturing firms

Author:
Carlo Lombardo and Leonardo Penaloza-Pacheco
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of a massive skilled labor supply shock on Colombian manufacturing firms’ exports, the Venezuelan exodus. We exploit crosssectional and time variability of Venezuelan forced migrants’ settlements in Colombian sub-national areas through an enclave instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants’ location. Using yearly customs data from 2013 to 2019, we find that the Venezuelan migration improved Colombian manufacturing firms’ export performance, particularly to high-income countries of the OECD located in North America and low-income countries. This effect was stronger for firms that exported less prior to the exodus (2012). Furthermore, using a detailed yearly panel of manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2019 we identify the potential labor market driving mechanism of the trade-creation effect: immigrants lowered exporting firms’ blue-collar wages, and allowed them to upgrade their labor force skill composition, namely firms were able to hire workers more compatible with exports to developed destinations.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Trade, Skills, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

12041. Poverty in Latin America

Author:
Leonardo Gasparini, María Emma Santos, and Leopoldo Tornarolli
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Despite some progress in recent decades, poverty remains a top social concern in Latin America. A large proportion of Latin Americans live with very low incomes and are deprived in other fundamental welfare dimensions such as education, health, housing and sanitation. The measurement of income and multidimensional poverty in the region has advanced significantly in recent decades. In particular, there has been a remarkable increase in the availability of microdata from national household surveys and of poverty statistics published by governments and other institutions. Yet, the measurement of poverty in Latin America still has some limitations that should be addressed in the years to come. This chapter discusses the measurement of monetary and multidimensional poverty in Latin America, and documents the main patterns and trends. By providing an updated assessment of the level, changes and characteristics of poverty in the region we expect to contribute to the more ambitious debate on its determinants and policy implications. The rest of the chapter is organized as follows. In Section 2 we describe the data sources and main methodological issues regarding the measurement of income poverty, while in Section 3 we document the main patterns and trends over the recent decades. We repeat the sequence for the measurement of multidimensional poverty: Section 4 for methodological issues and Section 5 for evidence. The paper concludes in Section 6 with some brief concluding remarks.
Topic:
Poverty, Income Inequality, Economy, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
Latin America

12042. Scalable Early Warning Systems for School Dropout prevention: Evidence from a 4.000-School Randomized Controlled Trial

Author:
Francisco Haimovich, Emmanuel Vazquez, and Melissa Adelman
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Across many low- and middle-income countries, a sizable share of young people drop out of school before completing a full course of basic education. Early warning systems that accurately identify students at risk of dropout and support them with targeted interventions have shown results and are in widespread use in high-income contexts. This paper presents impact evaluation results from an early warning system pilot program in Guatemala, a middle-income country where nearly 40 percent of sixth graders drop out before completing ninth grade. The pilot program, which was implemented in 17 percent of Guatemala’s primary schools and largely leveraging existing government resources, reduced the dropout rate in the transition from primary to lower secondary school by 4 percent (1.3 percentage points) among schools assigned to the program, and by 9 percent (3 percentage points) among program compliers. Although the effect size is relatively modest, the low cost of the program (estimated at less than US$3 per student) and successful implementation at scale make this a promising and cost-effective approach for reducing dropout in resource-constrained contexts like Guatemala.
Topic:
Education, Management, Schools, Dropout Prevention, Early Warning, and Impact Evaluation
Political Geography:
Central America and Guatemala

12043. Social Mobility and Economic Development: Evidence from a Panel of Latin American Regions

Author:
Guido Neidhofer, Matias Ciaschi, Leonardo Gasparini, and Joaquín Serrano
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development by constructing a panel data set that includes measures of intergenerational mobility of education at the sub-national level in Latin America. First, we map the geography of educational mobility for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a novel weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the effect of changes in mobility on economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Hereby, we control for several covariates, including migration, educational expansions, initial conditions, and unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust impact on the development of Latin American regions.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Economic Mobility, Equality, and Equality of Opportunity
Political Geography:
Latin America

12044. The distributional effect of a massive exodus in Latin America and the role of downgrading and regularization

Author:
Carlo Lombardo, Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Penaloza-Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The massive displacement of Venezuelan citizens to Colombia is the second most important episode of forced migration in the world. We study the impact of this demographic shock on the Colombian income distribution exploiting the geographical heterogeneity in the intensity of migration. We use RIF regressions in an instrumental variables approach to account for the non-random pattern of location of immigrants. We find that despite the fact that Venezuelan immigrants are relatively skilled compared to native Colombian workers, the exodus had a larger negative effect on the lower tail of the wage distribution, implying increases in income inequality and poverty. We link this result to a sizeable downgrading of (mostly unregistered) Venezuelan recent migrants who work in more routine tasks and earn lower wages than natives with similar characteristics. We also explore a large regularization program for immigrants and find that it was associated to a reduction in the extent of downgrading, and hence, to a mitigation of the unequalizing impact of the exodus.
Topic:
Migration, Income Inequality, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

12045. The COVID-19 Curtain: Can Past Communist Regimes Explain the Vaccination Divide in Europe

Author:
Inés Berniell, Yarine Fawaz, Anne Laferrere, Pedro Mira, and Elizaveta Pronkina
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
As of November 2021, all former Communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe exhibit lower vaccination rates than Western European countries. Can institutional inheritance explain, at least in part, this heterogeneity in vaccination decisions across Europe? To study this question we exploit novel data from the second wave of the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe) Covid-19 Survey fielded in Summer 2021 that covers 27 European countries and Israel. First, we document lower Covid-19 vaccine take-up amongst individuals above 55 years old who were born under Communism in Europe. Next, we turn to reunified Germany to get closer to a causal effect of exposure to Iron curtain regimes. We find that exposure to the Communist regime in East Germany decreases one’s probability to get vaccinated against Covid-19 by 8 percentage points, increases that of not wanting the vaccine by 4 percentage points. Both effects are quite large and statistically significant, and they hold when controlling for individual socio-economic and demographic characteristics. We identify low social capital -measured as voluntary work, political engagement, trust in people- as a plausible channel through which past Communist regimes would still affect individuals’ preferences for Covid-19 vaccination.
Topic:
Communism, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Post-Soviet Europe

12046. A decomposition method to evaluate the ‘paradox of progress’ with evidence for Argentina

Author:
Javier Alejo, Leonardo Gasparini, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, and Walter Sosa-Escudero
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
The ‘paradox of progress’ is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the ‘Mincer equation’ (that links wages and education) and the heterogeneity in its returns, as captured by quantile regressions. We propose a joint least-squares and quantile regression statistical framework to derive a decomposition in order to evaluate the relative contribution of each explanation. The estimators are based on the ‘functional derivative’ approach. We apply the proposed decomposition strategy to the case of Argentina 1992 to 2015.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Inequality, Quantile Regression, and Paradox of Progress
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

12047. Introducing MACEDA: new micro-data on an indigenous self-determination conflict

Author:
Pedro Cayul, Alejandro Corvalán, Dany Jaimovich, and Matteo Pazzona
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
This article introduces MACEDA, a micro-level data set on the self-determination (SD) conflict between the Chilean state and the indigenous Mapuche. Although SD disputes are one of the most common conflicts in the world, and indigenous movements represent about 40% of all SD movements, this is the first micro-data focused on an indigenous SD conflict. MACEDA covers the period 1990-2016, including more than 2,600 events collected from local media. As indigenous conflicts are much less violent in terms of casualties, we take a flexible definition of conflict, based on its constituent events, and we discuss the comparability and generalization of our approach. To illustrate the usefulness of these micro-data in the analysis of conflict-related theories, we present a descriptive empirical analysis on the strategies of indigenous resistance, and we discuss how the data can be used in the causal analysis of conflicts.
Topic:
War, Conflict, Peace, Indigenous, Data, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
South America and Chile

12048. Can adjustment costs in research derail the transition to green growth ?

Author:
Laura Nowzohour
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Adjustment costs are a central bottleneck of the real-world economic transition essential for achieving the sizeable reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions set out by policy makers. Could these costs derail the transition process to green growth, and if so, how should policy makers take this into account? I study this issue using the model of directed technical change in Acemoglu, Aghion, Bursztyn, and Hemous (2012), AABH, augmented by a friction on the choice of scientists developing better technologies. My results show that such frictions, even minor, materially affect the outcome. In particular, the risk of reaching an environmental disaster is higher than in the baseline AABH model. Fortunately, policy can address the problem. Specifically, a higher carbon tax ensures a disaster-free transition. In this case, the re-allocation of research activity to the clean sector happens over a longer but more realistic time horizon, namely around 15 instead of 5 years. An important policy implication is that optimal policies do not act over a substantially longer time horizon but must be more aggressive today in order to be effective. In turn, this implies that what may appear as a policy failure in the short-run | a slow transition albeit aggressive policy | actually re ects the efficient policy response to existing frictions in the economy. Furthermore, the risk of getting environmental policy wrong is highly asymmetric and `robust policy' implies erring on the side of stringency. Details
Topic:
Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Growth, Sustainability, Anthropocene, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12049. Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: evidence from South Africa

Author:
Roxana Elena Manea, Patrizio Piraino, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in South Africa. We create a novel panel dataset combining information on crimes at the police station level with census data. We find that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. An increase of one standard deviation in housing inequality explains between 9 and 13 percent of crime increases. Additionally, we suggest that a prominent post-apartheid housing program for low-income South Africans helped to reduce inequality and violent crimes. Together, these findings suggest the important role that equality in housing conditions can play in the reduction of crime in an emerging economy context.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Inequality, and Housing
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

12050. Financing energy innovation: internal finance and the direction of technical change

Author:
Joëlle Noailly and Roger Smeets
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and of climate neutrality by 2050 in the European Union will require mobilizing financial investments towards clean energy innovation. This study examines the role of internal finance (cash flows and cash holdings) and financing constraints for innovation in energy technologies. We construct a dataset for 1,300 Europeans combining balance-sheet information and patenting activities in renewable (REN) and fossil-fuel (FF) technologies and estimate the sensitivity of patenting activities to's internal finance. We use count estimation techniques and control for a large set of-specific characteristics and market developments in REN and FF technologies. We find that patenting activities ofs specialized in REN innovation are significantly more sensitive to a shock in cash flows thans specializing in FF innovation. Hence, our results emphasize that innovatives in clean energy may be particularly vulnerable to financing constraints. We discuss the implications of these results for energy transition policies aiming to redirect finance towards clean energy R&D.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, European Union, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Innovation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

12051. Food security in the long-run: a macroeconomic approach to land use policy

Author:
Pedro Naso, Ozgun Haznedar, Bruno Lanz, and Timothy M. Swanson
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
It is important to dedicate substantial parts of the global land supply to public good uses in the 21st century, for purposes of climate change management and biodiversity provision. But will it also be possible to meet the food requirements of 12 billion people while doing so? Using a macroeconomic model (MAVA), we demonstrate that it may be possible to provide both for food security and environmental services in the long run. We first show that it may be possible to provide for food security with very substantial constraints on the amount of land used in agriculture with relatively minor welfare losses. We then show that global policies that reallocate labour across sectors of the economy may have the capacity for directing the economy toward reduced reliance on land in agriculture. Focusing on education, research and development, and fertility costs may be the best way to meet these combined goals. Details
Topic:
Development, Food Security, Macroeconomics, and Land
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12052. Heard the news ? Environmental policy and clean investments

Author:
Joëlle Noailly, Laura Nowzohour, and Matthias Van Den Heuvel
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We build a novel news-based index of US environmental policy and examine how it relates to clean investments. Extracting text from ten leading US newspapers over the last four decades, we use text-mining techniques to develop a granular index measuring the salience of US environmental policy (EnvP) over the 1981-2019 period. We develop further a set of additional measures, namely an index of sentiment on environmental policy, as well as various topic-specific indices. We validate our index by showing that it correctly captures trends and peaks in the evolution of US environmental policy and that it has a meaningful association with clean investments, in line with environmental regulations supporting growing opportunities for clean markets. In firm-level estimations, we find that the salience of environmental policy in newspapers is associated with a greater probability of cleantech startups receiving venture capital (VC) funding and reduced stock returns for high-emissions firms most exposed to environmental regulations. At the aggregate level, we find in VAR models that a shock in our news-based index of renewable energy policy is associated with an increase in the number of clean energy VC deals and in the assets under management of the main benchmark clean energy exchange-traded fund. Overall, our EnvP index provides a lot of substantial information on environmental policy and can help assist the policy and financial community in understanding how these regulations are perceived by investors | providing many avenues for future research.
Topic:
Environment, Investment, Mining, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12053. Heterogeneous impacts of school fee elimination in Tanzania: gender and colonial infrastructure

Author:
Roxana Elena Manea and Pedro Naso
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
In this study, we investigate the impacts of the 2002 elimination of primary school fees in Mainland Tanzania. We explore how the magnitude of these effects depends on gender and the size of early investments in the educational infrastructure of Tanganyika. We use the 2002 and 2012 census waves as well as historical information on the location of schools in the late 1940s, and conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that exposure to an average of 1.7 years of free primary education has reduced the proportion of people who have never attended primary education by 6.8 percentage points. The benefits of fee removal have been significantly larger for females compared to males, and females from districts where the size of investments in education was relatively larger during colonial rule have been the greatest beneficiaries.
Topic:
Education, Infrastructure, Colonialism, Gender, and Schools
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

12054. Taliban News: Fair and Balanced?

Author:
Janet Steele
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
At the Taliban’s first press conference on 17 August 2021, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid startled the world by calling for “balanced and fair reporting,” claiming that the Taliban would support free and independent media as long as journalists worked according to Islamic rules and Sharia. In this essay, I argue that Western policymakers should take the Taliban spokesperson’s words very seriously, as his frame of reference is a set of powerful Islamic concepts that are likely to resonate with Muslim listeners throughout the world. It is important both to understand his words within the context of Islam, and to search for common ground in holding the Taliban accountable for what it has pledged.
Topic:
Governance, Taliban, News Analysis, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

12055. More Ethical Political Communication in the 21st Century

Author:
Benjamin Voth
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Ethics as a matter of political communication vexes the human experiment in politics since its inception. A proper and grounded sense of ethics in political communication is a necessary ongoing consideration in all expert analysis of political communication in order to avoid important excesses of politics ranging from injustice to genocide. The key antidote to achieving ethical rather than unethical conduct in political communication is a careful praxis of discursive complexity. As the 21st century intensifies its attachments to vehicles of communication rooted in artificial intelligence, we as expert practitioners must intensify our pedagogy and research toward the encouragement of human dissent. The potential mismanagement of public opinion could through technological savvy unleash nightmares comparable or suprassing the Third Reich in the 1940s.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Communications, Ethics, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12056. What Do Social Media Activity and Social Networks Mean for Politics

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Social media reshapes politics and national narratives in ways that make it more difficult to govern, if by govern we mean collective actions to preserve stability and order through voluntary adhesion to laws and norms, and when necessary, through coercion deemed legitimate by the institutions of the state. Social media’s impact on narrative and legitimacy is what’s most pronounced and, in many cases, what’s most damaging to the ability of governments to govern.
Topic:
Politics, Social Media, Legitimacy, and Social Networks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12057. Role of Social media in Amplifying Neo-Liberal Cancel Culture

Author:
Greg Simons
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Cancel culture and wokeism are dangerous trends that are increasing in their intensity and the self-destruction of Western civilization is a matter of time as the underlying historical myths and value/normative philosophies that led to its global hegemony is destroyed by a messianic ideology that is engineering an exclusive homogenous worldview in the name of pluralism and inclusivity. In this world of Orwellian doublespeak, the current struggle for ideological hegemony is taking place in the information space for hearts and minds in the cognitive realm. Social media is the very frontline in the future and even very existence of Western civilization, and it has chosen to support those waging the neo-liberal cancel culture in the name of justice, liberation and equality.
Topic:
Culture, Hegemony, Social Media, Neo-Liberalism, and Cancel Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12058. Conspiracy Buffs, Skeptics and the 2016 US Presidential Election

Author:
Ted Goertzel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
We identified “Conspiracy Buffs” and “Skeptics” based on two conspiracy theory items included in the 2016 American National Election Survey. We then compared these two groups, and the much larger group we called the “Uncertains”, on a large number of closed and open-ended survey items. The Conspiracy Buffs had lower levels of education than the Skeptics, had less facility with language, and were more likely to state that they had not thought much about whether they were liberal or conservative. They expressed strongly angry feelings about Hillary Clinton, often citing the Benghazi incident and her use of a private email server. The Skeptics were just as angry at Donald Trump as the Buffs were at Hillary Clinton, but they did not use arguments drawn from conspiracy theories. They referred to his widely acknowledged personality traits and personal behaviors. These traits were also mentioned by many Buffs, but more in disappointment than in anger.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, and Conspiracy Theory
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12059. A Rising "Cyber China"

Author:
Jonathan Sullivan, Sarah Jeu, and Weixiang Wang
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
As Xi Jinping prepares to secure an unprecedented third term as party leader, observers will find that the PRC has become increasingly assertive in its regulation of the internet and its infrastructure. The techniques honed in the treatment of China’s domestic cybersphere are increasing in presence in international cyberspace, as domestic propaganda effectively suppresses dissenting voices and nurtures cyber nationalism. The CPC’s promotion of “cyber sovereignty” and “self-reliance” in technological innovation and manufacturing further demonstrate a concerted effort to carve out a “Chinese cyberspace” different from the current free and open model. Understanding both domestic and international aspects of China’s internet is the key to addressing a more proactive and confident “Cyber China.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Regulation, Internet, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China and Asia

12060. A Digital Social Contract That Safeguards Democracies and promotes Women's Rights Is Urgently Needed

Author:
Lucina Di Meco
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Globally, women leaders online face relentless abuse, threats, and gendered disinformation campaigns, enabled by the lack of regulation on social media platforms causing women to become discouraged from entering public leadership and allowing anti-democratic regimes to silence critics and undermine women’s political participation. In Turkey, proposed social media reform allowing government regulation based on poorly defined definitions of disinformation coupled with the backsliding of women’s rights movements are providing a breeding ground for gendered disinformation. A small window has opened to show the responsibility of platforms for not acting sooner to address the harms their products cause on women, and democracy. We must take advantage of this moment by highlighting what the evidence demonstrates, shaping the global conversation on online harms against women.
Topic:
Women, Democracy, Gender, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12061. Not In The Cards: U.S.-China Arms Control In The Era of MultiPolar Competition

Author:
Eliza Gheorghe and Dilan Ezgi Koc
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The distribution of power at the international level and the intensity of the security rivalry can explain the trajectory of arms control between China and the United States. Washington and Beijing were able to work together during the second half of the Cold War and for much of unipolarity because the system was bipolar and the security competition was mild or non-existent. The advent of multipolarity and the ensuing intense security competition put an end to Sino-American cooperation on arms control. The current circumstances are not conducive to a resumption of exchanges.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12062. When The Stakes Are High: Campaign Messages in Hungary

Author:
Zsofia Bocskay
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While municipal elections are of less importance than national ones, the study of local election communication shows that there are cases when political actors frame them as first-order elections. In 2019, the opposition managed to challenge the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance in Hungary, and gained mayoral offices in strategically important places. In the campaign, PM Viktor Orbán’s party stressed the importance of local elections, utilizing a complex conspiracy theory. They argued that the stakes were high because Hungary’s sovereignty was at risk. In this article, I evaluate the findings of a content analysis conducted on 86 speeches that were performed as part of the ruling party’s election campaign with a special focus on topics and character remarks.
Topic:
Elections, Local, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

12063. Domestication and Defeminization of Female Leadership

Author:
Abeer Kapoor
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Throughout the article, the author argues that women politicians will always be framed within the domestic context and that they will always be attached to their male family members. Then, if they are to go beyond that, they must remove their feminine identity and discard it in order to compete with men on an equal basis.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Leadership, Feminism, Equality, and Femininity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12064. NATO 2030: Keeping Us Safe In a More Competitive World

Author:
Mircea Geoana
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In this new age of growing global competition and increasing complex threats, our security environment is more uncertain and contested than ever before. At the NATO Summit in Brussels in June, Allied leaders took bold decisions to adapt our Alliance to a more unpredictable world and ensure that NATO will continue to keep our one billion people safe in this new decade and beyond. Through our ambitious and forward-looking NATO 2030 agenda, our transatlantic Alliance will remain fit to face the challenges of today and future-proof against those of tomorrow. As a highly valued member of NATO, Turkey makes important contributions to our Alliance and its ongoing adaptation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12065. Getting NATO Ready For The Rest Of The 21st Century: Is NATO 2030 The Right Roadmap?

Author:
Jamie Shea
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Visiting Brussels in June, President Biden proclaimed that “America is back”. This also means that NATO is back, as Biden reconfirmed the United States’ solemn commitment to the defense of its European allies and Washington’s willingness to once again lead a transatlantic alliance that was much derided during the Trump years. At first sight, this is all good news for NATO; but could it turn out to be a mixed blessing for the Europeans in the longer run? This article analyses whether the NATO 2030 initiative is up to the task, and whether it provides the right answers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12066. NATO And Collective Defense in Space: Same Mission, New Domain

Author:
Aurel Sari and Hitoshi Nasu
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The progressive militarization of outer space presents a range of policy and legal challenges for NATO due to its reliance on space assets for operational effectiveness and the increased vulnerabilities of these assets. Indeed, dependence on space-based assets and services in the conduct of military operations has become something of an Achilles heel for NATO as peer and near-peer competitors are honing their counter-space capabilities. Given the vulnerability of space-based assets and services to hostile interference, the question presents itself whether, and under what circumstances, the collective defense commitment, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (NAT), arises in space. NATO’s ability and resolve to counter threats in space could be challenged due to the uncertain parameters of the right of self-defense itself when exercised in space and the geographical limits that Article 6 of the NAT imposes on the operation of Article 5 of the NAT.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12067. NATO's China Problem

Author:
Blake Herzinger
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s strategic minds are increasingly occupied with how to handle the People’s Republic of China’s rise as a maritime power in Asia, but this focus is misguided. China is already a maritime power in the North Atlantic, and its influence is rapidly growing. This influence does not represent a crisis for the Alliance but does require addition of China to the Alliance’s strategic considerations within its area of responsibility. Additionally, the Alliance must account for extraregional competition between the U.S. and the PRC which could draw in alliance commitments in the event of escalation between the two powers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and North America

12068. Biden;s Transatlantic Offset

Author:
Carsten Schmiedl
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The United States and its allies are entering an era of strategic simultaneity for which the Transatlantic Alliance is ill-prepared. The prospect of concurrent conflict or pressure from opposing sides of the Euro-Atlantic region would stretch existing resources beyond commitments. It would also risk undermining Article 5 and 70 years of stability and prosperity for NATO in Europe. As the U.S. pivots to the Indo-Pacific, the Biden administration should pursue closer relations with the Alliance as a fourth offset strategy which seeks to bolster European defense and better align strategy at the national and multinational levels. In so doing, the United States can enhance the security and stability of the political West with a view towards the emerging geopolitical environment of the coming decades.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

12069. Ukraine Membership Revisited: The Case For NATO's Strategic Adaption

Author:
Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Ukraine’s NATO membership has moved over the last decade from unlikely to mission impossible. Thirteen years after the NATO Bucharest Summit promise that Georgia and Ukraine “will join” the Alliance and Russia’s subsequent invasion of Georgia, and seven years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the political willingness of the 30 NATO member states remains insufficient to keep their 2008 promise. Russia’s violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity makes Kiev’s integration into NATO almost impossible. But the strategic rationale for Ukraine joining NATO remains as compelling as ever. Moreover, the arguments for a revised NATO strategy towards the Black Sea region are multiplying. The current Alliance’s Strategic Revision process should be the first step towards a revised NATO policy towards Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and North America

12070. NATO And Its Changing Approach To Space

Author:
Victoria Samson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While space has been a part of NATO’s interests since the beginning of the Space Age, it is just within the past three years that we have seen an increase in NATO’s efforts to use space to meet its mission needs as an organization. This is due to an increased importance of space for national security globally and concurrent proliferation of counterspace capabilities. While NATO has started evolving its policy framework to meet these new needs, much work needs to be done to ensure that the Alliance has access to space capabilities when it needs them.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Space
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

12071. There is No Easy Solution To The Western Balkans' Disinformation Challenge

Author:
Daniel Sunter
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The Western Balkan countries are currently among the most vulnerable to an intentional, Kremlin-supported campaign of disinformation within the European region. The vulnerability of the Western Balkans is exacerbated for several reasons: the countries are not completely integrated into European and EuroAtlantic structures; they harbor the legacy of ethnic and religious tensions from the conflicts of the 1990s; the region continues to experience dysfunctions within its information space; and it is plagued by the unresolved Kosovo issue. Tackling a problem of this magnitude demands a comprehensive approach by governments and media associations supported by the international community
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, Disinformation, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

12072. Ideological Interventions in the COVID-19 Health Crisis in Turkey By Power, Politics, and Religion

Author:
Bayram Balci and Sumbul Kaya
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
This article aims at analyzing the various ideological interventions, prompted by the pandemic in Turkey, in the fields of power, politics, and religion. In a country and a context where politics and religion are closely connected, and a particular Turkish experience with few parallels in the Muslim world, our investigation will be two-fold: how to calculate the ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the Turkish political field, and secondly, how has the religious world reacted in backing up politics in its response to this crisis. We are seeking to understand the effects of the crisis on the established power, and on the orientations of national and international policy in the context of a health crisis. Lastly, we need to examine the role of religion in the management of the crisis
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Governance, Ideology, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

12073. Is Re-calibration Feasible in Turkey-Egypt Relations? Limits and Possibilities

Author:
Osman Bahadir Dinçer, Busra Nur Ozguler-Aktel, and Mehmet Hecan
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The ideological dimension of the bilateral Turkey-Egypt ties constitutes a particular focal point in terms of predicaments, which could be quite tricky to overcome. Yet, it seems that the geopolitical necessities tighten the noose for Turkey to feel obliged in fixing the strained relations with the Sisi administration. It is also evident that the first step towards a compromise is expected to be taken by Ankara. Within this context and providing a brief background, this piece aims to lay out specific policy contexts to discuss the possibility and limits of recalibration between Turkey and Egypt based on a 2016 visit to Cairo in which numerous interviews with the political and academic elite were conducted.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Egypt

12074. Spotlight Turkey: A Pivotal Swing State in NATO

Author:
Tuba Eldem
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Turkey’s geostrategic location at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and its dual identity as both a European and Asian state is unique in the world. The country safeguards strategic waterways and offers NATO critical staging bases and logistical support to extend its reach in the Middle East. With its dual identity, multiaxial foreign policy and hybrid political regime, Turkey also emerges as a pivotal swing state in shaping the contours of a stronger Transatlantic Alliance in the emerging new global world order marked by growing power competition between Western liberal democracies and Eastern autocratic regimes.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Asia, and North America

12075. Revisiting the Libya Intervention and the Idea(l) of Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Dogachan Dagi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The mechanisms of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as agreed by the world leaders in 2005 were expected to prevent mass atrocities by forming a consensusbased international response that includes the use of force. In early 2011, for the first time, the coercive element of R2P was put into force in Libya by a UNSC resolution. However, the apparent pursuit of a regime change in Libya by the intervening powers has eroded trust in the Western coalition, shattered the belief in humanitarian missions, alienated the non-Western world, and thus broken the fragile consensus. The Libya debacle has strengthened the argument that it is very unlikely, if not impossible, to detach a humanitarian intervention from power politics, and prevent its misuse
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

12076. The United States has seen a transformation in the past 12 months, possibly the beginning of a sea change around race and culture. The very visible and tragic death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police shook the nation to its core, and prompted an unprecedented national outcry. In the months that followed, amidst the social vacuum created by the pandemic, sport emerged as a present and prominent voice for change. In many ways, we have always known that sport has an inherent power to bring people together, and that athletes, because of their celebrity status, have a platform from which to influence others. What we saw last summer was a collective and unified movement by a large sector of the entire sports enterprise that placed issues of racial oppression and inequality in the center of American consciousness. Systemic change begins with awareness, and sport is shining a bright light on this racial reckoning.

Author:
Delise O'Meally
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The United States has seen a transformation in the past 12 months, possibly the beginning of a sea change around race and culture. The very visible and tragic death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police shook the nation to its core, and prompted an unprecedented national outcry. In the months that followed, amidst the social vacuum created by the pandemic, sport emerged as a present and prominent voice for change. In many ways, we have always known that sport has an inherent power to bring people together, and that athletes, because of their celebrity status, have a platform from which to influence others. What we saw last summer was a collective and unified movement by a large sector of the entire sports enterprise that placed issues of racial oppression and inequality in the center of American consciousness. Systemic change begins with awareness, and sport is shining a bright light on this racial reckoning.
Topic:
Hegemony, Leadership, Police, and Systemic Racism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12077. What is Wrong

Author:
Kemal Koprulu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While delving further into the systemic issues such as corruption, biased media, and lack of accountability that have been plaguing the American political system, this article, the second of a multi-part article, argues that the Biden administration’s policies in the next four years will have irreparable repercussions for the US and global community alike. America is far from being “back”—and, in fact, is at its weakest. With the specter of a rising China and its ties to Democratic politicians and donors becoming increasingly visible, containing China during Biden’s presidency will be impossible. Despite their efforts to divert attention away from China and toward Russia, Democrats’ corrupt acts will come back to haunt them— especially ahead of the 2022 and 2024 elections.
Topic:
Corruption, Leadership, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12078. Climate Change Vulnerability and Women's Land Rights: The Case of Arua District

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Findings of this study show that Arua district is very vulnerable to climate change impact risk. The vulnerability and effects of different climate hazards and land issues vary with social groups and livelihood activities. The key climate hazards identified were drought, erratic weather patterns as well as climate induced pests and diseases. The land rights issues included lack of: (1) land ownership, (2) control over land, and (3) knowledge on land rights. Smallholder farmers were associated with the highest level of exposure to drought, floods, erratic weather patterns as well as climate induced pests and diseases like maize streak, cassava mosaic/brown streak, ground nuts rosette, among others. Women were particularly more affected by drought than other groups. The nature and degree of exposure to these hazards was worse for women/people with disabilities and those living with HIV/ AIDs because of marginalisation and inherent physical inabilities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Land Rights, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

12079. A Contextual Analysis of Green Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises/Local Green Enterprises in Uganda

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
The Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) dominate Uganda's economy. They play a pivotal role in production and supply chains, value addition, technology transfer, development and innovation. MSMEs, underpin the country's competitiveness, employment, income and wealth creation and if greened and well harnessed, they have a big potential to facilitate transitioning to an inclusive transformative growth trajectory.The report contributes to a better understanding of the sustainable financial architecture and how it affects the activities and priorities of LGEs in Uganda. It is hoped that the report will guide informed discussions at local and national levels and feed into the development of sustainable finance policy instruments, laws, support systems and standards that improve investment climate for LGEs and consequently promote the greening of MSMEs.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

12080. Access and Use of ICT in Budget Transparency and Accountability in Local Governments

Author:
Florence Kuteesa, Susan Namirembe Kavuma, and Richard Ayesigwa
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This study examined the levels of awareness, access and capacities of local Government administration to use ICT tools and e-government services in the budgeting process in the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pursuit of improved e-government services for budget transparency and accountability became the norm in Uganda. The Public Finance Management Act 2015, Section 12(2) mandates all stakeholders to promote and enforce transparent, efficient, and effective management of public expenditure.The findings of the study showed the potential of ICT to significantly enhance Budget Transparency and Accountability.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, Communications, Budget, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

12081. Access to Justice and Public Services

Author:
Marvis Zupork Dome and Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Micro, small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), defined as enterprises that employ as few as one employee (micro, 1-5) to as many as 100 employees (medium, 31-100), occupy a dominant role in Ghana’s economy. They constitute 99.8% of enterprises in the economy, account for at least 70% of Ghana’s GDP, and create about 81% of the new jobs. Despite its immense contribution and potential, the MSMEs sector in Ghana faces manifold problems. Previous studies have documented challenges that stymie the growth and survival of MSMEs however, the unique or special challenges, experiences, and concerns of MSMEs, particularly, those in the “micro” and “small” subsectors, in relation to public authorities, especially the regulatory and judicial authorities of the state, have not been studied or properly documented to inform policy toward these subsectors. This study undertaken by CDD-Ghana with support from Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, sought to understand and document Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Ghana’s challenges in accessing justice and other public services. The study sought to unearth MSMEs, particularly those owned by women, to be able to proffer appropriate policy recommendations to improve MSMEs access to justice, rule of law and service delivery. The research team adopted both qualitative and quantitative research approaches. A survey was conducted with 780 MSMEs in three regions (Greater Accra, Ashanti and Northern Regions) across three geographical zones and a total of 40 in-depth interviews with policy makers, policy support/implementing units and service providers.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Justice, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12082. Building Entrepreneurial Skill Sets for Local Economic Development

Author:
Paul Nana Kwabena, Aborampah Mensah, and Newton Yaw Norviewu
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Chapter 20 of the 1992 Republican Constitution of Ghana creates and mandates Local Government Authorities to ensure the total development of their localities. The Constitution grants Local Government Authorities with the necessary powers to perform their functions. The Local Governance Act was promulgated to operationalize the Constitutional provisions of the functions of Local Authorities. Specifically, the Act mandates all local authorities to exercise political and administrative authoritiy in the district; promote local economic development; and provide guidance, give direction and supervise other administrative authorities in the district as may be prescribed by law. Local Government Authorities are therefore seen as the folcrum for development within their jurisdictions - provide the needed infrastructure that could aid investments, reduce poverty and facilitate employment, especially for the youth. Ghana has developed Local Economic Development (LED) policy to guide the development of the districts. Ghana’s LED policy, among other things, seeks to fully harness the economic potentials of the districts for job creation and faster poverty reduction. The policy also enjoins the district assemblies to mobilize all development actors, both those within the districts and around the country and beyond, and coordinate their activities to support implementation of LED programs in the districts. To this end, the European Union delegatioin to Ghana is supporting a 42 months LED project at the Asutifi North district of the Ahafo region of Ghana. The project is being implemented by CDD-Ghana in partnership with the Asutifi North District Assembly (ANDA). The project aims to harness local resources, knowledge, ideas, skills, and other comparative advantages to stimulate local economic growth and development, to create job opportunities and self-employment, reduce poverty, stem internal migration, and promote sustainable and inclusive development. The project targets to build capacity of 45 youth, women and PWDs to acquire some vocational skills and support them to establish their own businesses. The target beneficiaries would be selected from the communities adversely affected by the mining operations in the district. To kick start the project, a baseline survey was conducted in communities located in the three zonal councils (Kenyasi No.1, Kenyasi No.2, and Ntotroso) that have been adversely affected by the commercial mining operations in the district. The survey was conducted to ascertain the skills set that the beneficiaries would prefer to learn, and; assess market potentials for the chosen skills. A total number of 650 people, aged between 18 and 45 were randomly selected and interviewed. A total of 39 communities within the three zonal councils were visited for the interviews.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Youth, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12083. Enhancing Citizens’ Participation In Cross Border Security: The Case Of Ghana

Author:
Nana Kwabena Aborampah Mensah, Mawusi Yaw Dumenu, and Alessandro Anibi
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Border security issues are of concern to governments, parcularly aer the 9/11 a acks. In Africa, the recent spread of the Jihadist movements across the Sahel region, coupled with the perceived threat of terrorism and issues of porous borders, have compelled many governments to secure their borders. However, many African countries face the difficult task of securing their borders. Numerous challenges encountered in this regard means that boundaries have become transnaonal crime zones. In recent mes, global security threats and terrorist acts are increasingly gaining ground in the West African Sub-Region. Ghana being part of the region, is at risk of being affected. Given these challenges, many countries have introduced new border management strategies with the twin objecves of improving security and facilitang trade and transit. Consequently, the Ghana Center for Democrac Development (CDD-Ghana) implemented a Border Security Project to raise security consciousness and enhance cizen parcipaon in cross-border security in Ghana through its Security Sector Governance program. A vital component of the project was cizens' involvement in the design and implementaon of counter-terrorism measures. With the assumpon that security is a transnaonal phenomenon with border communies sharing similar ethnic idenes and families on both sides and depending economically on each other, the project used inclusive and parcipatory mechanisms and tools to ensure that the voices of a broad range of stakeholders, including residents of border communies, were central to border management strategies. Therefore, empowering border communies while building the capacies of Border Agencies and increasing the physical presence of the State in border areas is very important to enhance interacon with local populaons be er, to arculate legimate law and order efforts, as well as to protect and promote the informal cross-border trade that is oen crical to their livelihoods and food security.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Transnational Actors, and Borders
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12084. Reforming Constitutional Governance in Ghana

Author:
Kojo Asante and Nicholas Opoku
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Manifestos are increasingly becoming an important polical contract in Ghana's highly compeve electoral polics. The preparaon of manifestos offers cizens and civil society organizaons (CSOs) a unique opportunity to mobilize and unite behind crical socio-economic and governance issues, and compel polical pares to prescribe reforms or proposals to them, with the view of implemenng such proposals when voted into office. The expectaon is that following this process, cizens and CSOs, working closely with the media, will hold polical pares to account for their proposed reforms to these issues. In line with this, the Ghana Center for Democrac Development (CDD-Ghana) ahead of the 2020 general elecons, embarked on The Manifesto Project with the view of highlighng crical problem areas in ten (10) sectors that hinder naonal development and progress and prescribe soluons for polical pares to comprise in their respecve manifestos. The issues were captured in a report tled 'The Manifesto Project: Promong responsive and responsible manifestos for inclusive development'. As a new government has been formed in 2021 following the outcome of the 2020 elecons, it is our expectaon that government will take steps towards addressing the key sector-specific issues highlighted. In the area of governance, some perennial challenges and gaps persist. This policy brief outlines the key issues idenfied as constung crical problem areas and gaps in Ghana's efforts towards ensuring good governance, with a view to informing and influencing agenda-se ng and policy for inclusive development.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, Governance, Reform, and Constitution
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12085. Decentralization And Local Governance Reform: Towards Accountable Local Government And Better Service Delivery In Ghana

Author:
Mohammed Awal
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Since the late 1980s, many countries in Africa started the process of devolving polical, administrave, and fiscal responsibilies from central to local governments. The movaons of countries for undergoing such a governance change are varied and include a range of polical as well as social and economic factors (see; Dickovich and Wunsch, 2014; Mogues, Benin and Cudjoe, 2009; Crawford and Hartman, 2008). Ghana has been implemenng decentralizaon reform since 1988. The central purpose of the reform is to improve local governance and be er provision of public services that would improve the lives of ordinary cizens (see; Ahwoi, 2010). Yet, in spite of a wave of decentralizaon policy reforms, local governments in Ghana sll remain weak. Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) – the polical, administrave and fiscal authority responsible for local governance- have weak accountability systems, are unresponsive and in many instances unable to deliver important public services that impact the lives of ordinary cizens (See; Ofei-Aboagye, 2018; CDD-Ghana and UNICEF, 2019). The poor performance of local governments in delivering public services has led to calls for deepening decentralizaon reform in Ghana. In response to the calls for strengthening local governance, government has in recent mes iniated and is implemenng key policy reforms in polical, fiscal and administrave decentralizaon. While the current reforms proposals –parcularly in polical decentralizaon –are far reaching, there sll remain areas of decentralizaon and local government reforms that require the a enon of policy makers, local government accountability oversight agencies as well as social accountability actors. This paper aims to smulate public discourse on strengthening decentralizaon for be er local government accountability and responsive public delivery service in Ghana. The aim of this paper is two fold; to provide key pointers to policy makers on the outstanding reform and policy issues in decentralizaon and local governance that needs polical crical a enon, and , to serve as an advocacy tool for non-state actors in fostering evidence informed advocacy towards achieving accountable, responsive local governments in Ghana.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Services, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12086. Political Accountability in Ghanaian Slums: Evidence from the Grassroots

Author:
Jeffrey W. Paller
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
More than 5.5 million Ghanaians live in slums. The majority of these people live in the Greater Accra Region. Contrary to popular portrayals of these communities as criminal havens and cut off from the state, slums are important spaces for citizens to interact and engage with the government. Based on one year of fieldwork, this study reveals considerable differences in the levels of political accountability and governance in Ghanaian slums. This research study asks: Why are some communities able to attract and manage state resources to build toilets, construct sewers, pave roads, collect garbage, and provide security while others are unable to attract and manage these same services? In this paper, I suggest three factors that help shape the development of slum communities: 1. Historical conditions and informal institutions 2. State-society linkages, and 3. Political accountability mechanisms I compare and contrast political dynamics in Old Fadama, Ga Mashie and Ashaiman—all slum areas in Greater Accra Region.
Topic:
Politics, Accountability, Services, Informal Settlement, and Slums
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12087. Enhancing the credibility of the public office holders asset declaration regime

Author:
E. Gyimah-Boadi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
A credible and effective asset declaration regime is an essential component of the ensemble of rules and structures necessary for democratic governance. It helps to: • Prevent abuse of power by holders of public office • Protect public assets and the public interest • Deter public corruption • Promote the integrity of public officials • Foster public accountability and trust as well as governmental legitimacy. A credible asset declaration regime is also good for public officials. It helps to: • Protect the private assets of public officials from wrongful and extra-legal confiscation • Protect public officials from undue suspicion, baseless allegations of wrongdoing, and all manner of calumny.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12088. Constituting Committees in the Eighth Parliament: Harnessing the Opportunities Inherent in a Hung Parliament

Author:
Regina Oforiwa Amanfo Tetteh
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Since the incepon of the 4th Republic, governments in power have enjoyed majority, and in some cases, overwhelming majority in parliament, the only excepon being the current parliament aer the 2020 elecons. The first parliamentary elecon of the 4th Republic which the New Patrioc Party (NPP) boyco ed, the Naonal Democrac Congress (NDC) won 189 out of the 200 seats. The remaining 11 seats were picked by the Naonal Convenon Party, 8 seats, Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE) Party, 1 seat and independent MPs, 2 seats. The 1996 parliamentary elecon produced an outcome that again gave majority to the ruling party (i.e. NDC, 131 seats; NPP, 63 seats; CPP, 5 seats; and PNC, 1 seat. This trend of majority MPs generally ge ng elected on the ckets of ruling pares connued through to the 7th Parliament of the 4th republic, even though in some cases it was a slim majority (e.g. 3rd parliament). In instances where there was a slim majority for the governing party, the pracce whereby MPs elected on the cket of smaller polical pares and those who contested the parliamentary elecon as independent candidates decide to do business with the majority side gave governments the numbers. The December 7 2020, parliamentary elecon, produced a legislature that departed from the norm. The main opposion NDC garnered 137 seats, exactly the same as what the governing party, NPP obtained with an independent candidate picking the remaining single seat. As usual, the independent MP, who is a die in the wool NPP but went independent because of some challenges with the party prior to the elecons pitched camp with the governing NPP. The outcome of the 2020 parliamentary elecon is therefore historic and very significant for the 4th Republic, especially as the country works towards strengthening and consolidang its young parliamentary democracy. Nevertheless, a number of Ghanaians and organizaons involved in parliamentary monitoring work may be wondering what this equal numerical strength means for parliamentary work, especially the substanve work at the Committee level.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Elections, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

12089. Getting the Price Right: The End of the War Declaration and North Korea’s Missile Tests

Author:
Youngshik D. Bong
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
With his presidential term set to end in 2022, Moon Jae-in has engaged in his final push for peace on the Korean peninsula – Moon called for an end of the Korean War in his address at the United Nations General Assembly. In this commentary, Youngshik Bong, Research Fellow at the Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies, explains the implication of the end-of-war declaration, discusses what leverage South Korea has over related parties, and suggests courses of action for the Korean government. Dr. Bong states that the proposal will have a fighting chance for related parties only when it is seen as something that will help deliver substantial and verifiable benefits to them. On North Korea’s response, he states that it will have to dial down the military tension between the Koreas. In other words, the proposal must be substantial rather than symbolic.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and North Korea

12090. Exchange and Cooperation in Music and Art between the Soviet Union and North Korea (1948–1990)

Author:
Byong-Jo Lee
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, an extensive number of cultural exchange visits were made between the Soviet Union and North Korea in various fields including the arts. Mutual visits paid by delegates of the respective countries served as an opportunity to introduce cultural techniques and receive training by experts of the other country. In this Research Review, Lee Byong-Jo, Professor at Al-Farabi (Kazakh) National University, explains the exchange of arts between the two countries. While most of them have been made with the intentions of praising the North Korean regime, findings show that there have been exchanges in folk music as well. In addition, research shows that Koryoin artists in Central Asia led cultural exchange between two countries. According to articles on the Lenin Gichi, exchange visits started with the founding of North Korea and persisted until the 1960s. Art groups reflected the sorrow of the Koryoin community, encouraged them to preserve their national identity, and contributed to the development of the arts in both countries.
Topic:
History, Arts, Culture, and Music
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and Soviet Union

12091. Kishida’s Onerous Task After the General Election: The Promotion of Democracy in Domestic and World Politics

Author:
Jaeun Yun
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On October 31, the general election was held in Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a comfortable majority in the lower house, winning 261 seats. Professor Jaeun Yun states this election shows that the majority of Japanese people tend to approve of the Kishida administration. He also points out that the Kishida administration, albeit securing a comfortable majority, needs to address two issues: to recover democracy in domestic politics and to carry out realistic foreign policy for the promotion of democracy in world politics. In order to promote and contribute to democracy domestically and internationally, he suggests that “reluctant realism” could turn out to be “realistic proactive pacifism.”
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

12092. Democracy and the Challenges of Climate Change

Author:
Kevin Casas-Zamora
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Climate change, being one of the most pressing issues today, has been addressed by many countries at the local, regional and global level. In this issue briefing, Dr. Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance discusses the challenges, strengths, and opportunities that democracy faces in tackling climate change. He states that the main challenges in tackling climate change are based on short-termism, self-referring mechanisms, and elements of governing capacities. Furthermore, he argues that democracy shows strength in this sense as a system of governance that allows for a strong civil society, free flow of information, societal consensus, and peaceful transformations of conflicts.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democracy, and Participatory Budgeting
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12093. Asia, Europe and Global Democracy: Beyond the Summit for Democracy

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
After much build-up during 2021, the U.S. administration held its Summit for Democracy on 9-10 December. President Biden succeeded in attracting 100 leaders to the online event and convinced states to make commitments to deepen democracy. After the success of the summit, details are now awaited on the follow-up. Governments will submit their reform commitments by mid-January, and decisions will then be needed on how progress on these will be monitored.[1] Work is also due on broader international initiatives of democracy support beyond the national-level commitments. A ‘year of action’ will now lead up to a second in-person summit in December 2022. The intention is for a more permanent process and set of initiatives to flow out of the two summits. Rolled together this set of developments can be referred to as an incipient ‘summit process’.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Democracy, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12094. State of Legal and Social Support for Refugees and Displaced Foreign Nationals in Asia: Comparison of Five Asian Countries

Author:
Jinkyung Baek and Ha Eun Yoon
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The 2020 Myanmar military coup was a wake-up call for Asian countries regarding the refugee crisis. Although there are 1.1 million displaced citizens from Myanmar alone, many Asian countries do not have concrete policies in defining and protecting the rights of refugees and displaced foreign nationals. Jinkyung Baek, Director of the Research Department at East Asia Institute (EAI), and Ha Eun Yoon, Research Associate at EAI analyze the refugee situation, legislative policies, and government and civil society response in 5 Asian countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, and Korea. The authors then offer possible points of improvement on the current situation in Asia. They argue that Asian governments should create a refugee emergency response, share policy-making and implementing roles with local CSOs, and form a sort of Asian consortium for knowledge sharing and enhancing universally shared norms and rules.
Topic:
Civil Society, Refugees, Displacement, and Norms
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

12095. Arising From “the People”: Bottom Up Change in North Korean Society

Author:
Seunghee Ha
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
From the construction of open-air theaters to the use of new celebratory mediums in national events and the resumption of the 2020 Youth Day Celebration amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea has experienced a significant transformation in its social and cultural underpinnings over the past year. Seunghee Ha, a research fellow at the Dongguk University DMZ Peace Center, argues that these changes provide important insights into how the North Korean authorities are gradually accommodating new tastes and desires that have emerged among its citizenry. Where such behaviors were once deemed threatening “non-socialist” behaviors, Ha believes that the state’s reactive adaptation highlights the increasing agency of ordinary North Koreans upon the direction of the country’s social preferences. For Ha, this “bottom-up” approach ultimately has the potential to produce a North Korea more socially aligned with the rest of the international community.
Topic:
Culture, Youth, and Society
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

12096. Strengthening the presidency, weakening democracy: A brief analysis of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka

Author:
Verite Research
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The enactment of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka (20A), a reversal of its precedent 19A at large, is a worrisome development hinting at the potential demise of democratic values. The new constitution bolsters the power of the executive president while undermining the power of all other institutions, virtually tearing down the system of checks and balances. Verité Research, a Sri Lankan ADRN member, outlines how the enactment of 20A marks a backtracking for Sri Lanka in its road towards democracy. It asserts that not only has 20A repealed the efforts of 19A to democratize and depoliticize governance, but has also obscured the transparency of the government and eliminated its accountability.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Constitution, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

12097. No Better Way to Promote Human Rights and Peace on the Korean Peninsula? Propaganda Leaflet Dropping and the South Korean Government’s Leafleting Ban

Author:
Youngsoo Yu
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Anti-North Korea leaflets that are flown across the inter-Korean border to North Korea have consistently been a topic of controversy. While South Korean activists deem the practice crucial for promoting human rights in North Korea, North Korea has vocally criticized the act in fear that the leaflets could delegitimize its regime. Following a series of psychological warfare acts of propaganda leaflet dropping, the South Korean National Assembly passed a bill prohibiting the act of sending anti-North Korea leaflets. This was done in hopes of alleviating rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and inducing North Korea into opening up for more dialogue and contact among the two Koreas. However, Youngsoo Yu, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, provides commentary critical of the government’s decision, claiming that the government has not only acted against the principles and values shared by the international community, but was also mistaken in prioritizing political purposes over the defense of human rights. Additionally, South Korea has not taken the appropriate measures to improve human rights conditions in North Korea. Moving forward, he claims that it is crucial for South Korea to work together with the international community and revamp its strategies to promote greater engagement with the hermit kingdom.
Topic:
Human Rights, Borders, Propaganda, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

12098. Need, Aid, and Root Causes: The Appropriateness of Humanitarian Response in the DPRK

Author:
Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Humanitarian aid carries connotations of emergency, urgent response, and acute threats to human morbidity, mortality, and dignity. Despite the end of the famine emergency since the mid-1990s, however, the DPRK has continued to receive international humanitarian aid. This article argues that while concepts of development and humanitarianism highlight the challenges to bringing structural change in the DPRK, the long-term nature of need in the DPRK does not signal an inappropriate match with humanitarian aid. In a sanctioned and highly politicised environment with questions of denuclearisation and human rights abuses, seeking to improve daily lives is an inherently structural act. Without structural changes, acute needs have and likely will continue even in times of non-emergency.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Human Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

12099. Nepal’s Supreme Court Overturned PM K.P. Oli’s Decision to Dissolve Parliament

Author:
Pradip Pariyar
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Change has dawned upon Nepal following the declaration of the 2015 Constitution, yet the future of its government seems bleak. Pradip Pariyar, Executive Chairperson of Samata Foundation, states that the old game of parliamentary politics is being revived in Nepal through a series of questionable events that unfolded in the Nepalese parliament over the past few months. Prime Minister K.P. Oli’s controversial recommendation to dissolve the House of Representatives was followed by strong backlash from both his faction and rival factions. Amidst the two months of uncertainty following the dissolution of the parliament, Nepali people brought their dissatisfaction to the streets, protesting against the decision. While the Supreme Court ultimately decided against the dissolution, deeming it unconstitutional, it was revealed that there was internal support for Oli’s contentious decision, including backing from Chief Justice Cholendra. Despite the expectation that Oli would resign from the post due to the trouble he brought upon the government as well as his limited capacity to handle national matters amidst the pandemic, Oli remains in power today.
Topic:
Government, Oil, Democracy, and Parliament
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

12100. Consistent Inconsistency: What One Thirty-year-old Cable Reveals About U.S.-DPRK Relations

Author:
Ben Forney
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
30 years have passed since North Korea’s then “nascent” nuclear program was identified as a “gravely serious threat.” Since 1991, its once budding nuclear program has amassed into a large-scale program, posing a grave challenge for the nuclear proliferation regime and regional security in Northeast Asia. In the following Global NK Commentary, Ben Forney, PhD candidate at the Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, explains that international coordination efforts to deter North Korea from developing its nuclear weapons have been inconsistent and ineffective. Manifest in cable exchanges between Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo and President George H.W. Bush’ solo enactment of the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives, unaccompanied by any consultation of his international counterparts, the US stance towards North Korea since 1991 has been contradictory and erratic. With the Biden administration facing a long list of domestic and international concerns not pertaining to the North Korean nuclear regime and the Moon administration’s difficulties into its final year, Forney asserts that prospects for meaningful progress on the North Korean nuclear issue seem bleak.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and United States of America