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38601. A Result That Resolves Little

Author:
Malcolm Chalmers
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Britain's 2010 National Security Strategy, published shortly after the coalition government took office, was entitled 'A Strong Britain in an Age of Uncertainty'. It made no mention of the two existential challenges—the possible secession of Scotland from the United Kingdom, and the risk of a British withdrawal from the European Union. Yet either event would be a fundamental transformation in the very nature of the British state, with profound impact on its foreign and security policy.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

38602. Now deliver, say the Scots

Author:
Colin Fleming
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Scotland's referendum saw Scots vote to remain part of the United Kingdom with 55 per cent of voters rejecting independence. However, a narrowing of the polls in the weeks leading up to the vote resulted in promises of significantly more powers for Scotland if it decided to stay part of the Union. With one You Gov poll suggesting a narrow win for the Yes movement–51 per cent to 49 per cent–Britain's three Unionist party leaders promised more powers with a timetable for action to be implemented the day after a No vote. These promises may be hard to keep. Only a few days on, it would appear that agreement on the timetable for change is lacking.
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Turkey, and Scotland

38603. Past the point of no return for Catalonia

Author:
Josep Maria Reniu
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Friday September 19 was a rare day in Catalonia. A significant proportion of Catalans had hoped for a victory of the Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum. The result was not as expected, but the day still gave us good news. The Catalan parliament passed a law on consultations and citizen participation that has allowed the president of the Catalan government to call citizens to the polls on November 9 to vote on independence. This vote in parliament took place against a background of impasse between Catalonia and the Spanish government in Madrid, with potentially destabilizing effects.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Spain and Scotland

38604. In the care of Nurse Ann Droid

Author:
Noel Sharkey and Amanda Sharkey
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Would you like to be left exclusively in the care of robots in your old age? Robots have been working in our factories, painting cars, assembling tiny components and mixing dangerous chemicals for decades. In the new era, service robots have begun working alongside humans in cleaning, medicine, farming and policing. Now robots are being given the intimate jobs of care and companionship for our elderly. Should we welcome such developments? Could a robot empathize and care for us in the way that a human could? Can we trust robots and robot manufacturers with such important and life–defining roles?
Political Geography:
Japan

38605. Life is about to get a lot smarter

Author:
Robert Plant
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When people think of robots, the image that comes to mind is of machines—sometimes in humanoid form—doing manual labour, and sometimes even behaving in something like a human way. The real changes in the world of work, though, are due to something less visible and more pervasive—the rise of connectivity. Connectivity is the ability to link data and things, which in this case means machines and processes—and people too.

38606. Interview: Yves Daccord

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In the Middle East today there are armed groups that have no respect for the humanitarian imperative. What challenges does this present to the Red Cross? I see two key challenges. The first one is very basic. We want to maintain a very close relationship with people affected by conflict, and access these days is more complex because we are in a very polarized environment. Look at the Iraq front–the problem is not new but it is exacerbated. The second issue is to be able to engage governments and non-state armed groups on a very pragmatic basis on issues related to people under their control. That normally works rather well. What I have found more complex these days is to engage them on issues related to international humanitarian law and the Geneva conventions.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid and Islam
Political Geography:
Geneva, Iraq, and Middle East

38607. It's all change in your pocket

Author:
Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The 1970s were years of high inflation in Italy. As the price of goods increased and the lira, a high denomination currency, was debased, the country faced a chronic lack of small change. Those were the years when coins were used to operate all sorts of devices, from pay phones to launderettes, vending machines and jukeboxes.
Political Geography:
Italy

38608. As sanctions bite, could Russia isolate itself by switching off the net?

Author:
Keir Giles
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As recently as November 2012, I was able to write in The World Today that although 'the Russian authorities already possess extremely strong legislative tools for controlling internet content, they ordinarily apply these with a very light touch'.
Political Geography:
Russia

38609. Review: Neil MacGregor's German lesson

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
From the window in Neil MacGregor's office you can see the swirling crowds of visitors in the courtyard of the British Museum. Seven million people a year squeeze through the Museum's narrow door–almost double the number in 2000.
Political Geography:
Britain and Germany

38610. Four lessons the EU should learn about energy security

Author:
Ana Stanic
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Diversification of gas supply has been a strategic priority for the European Union since its dependence on imports began to grow in the early 2000s. The crisis in Ukraine has heightened concerns that the flow of Russian gas passing through this country may be interrupted and has reignited calls for dependency on Russian gas to be reduced. As a new European Commission takes over energy policy in Brussels, it is worth examining the lessons the EU ought to learn from the Southern Gas Corridor project, which for a decade was seen as key to enhancing energy security.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Brazil

38611. Ten minutes with Andrei Kurkov, Ukrainian author

Author:
Andrei Kurkov
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
What would you like to see happen to your country? The Ukraine that existed before the events of last year was very peaceful, very tolerant, very quiet–maybe a bit too tolerant to hopeless and corrupt politicians. But now, we have a society that has been radicalized, and in the next parliamentary elections, we will have a lot of new radicals in the parliament. This is partially good because they will fight against corruption, and they will put pressure on the government and the president to carry on the reforms that were promised.
Topic:
Corruption and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Denmark

38612. Can the quiet ayatollah of peace save Iraq from collapse?

Author:
Hayder al-Khoei
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in April 2003, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani emerged as one of the most powerful men in Iraq. Sistani was already known to Shia Muslims worldwide as the somewhat reticent leader of the religious establishment in Najaf. The fall of the Ba'ath regime thrust him on to the national and international stage.
Political Geography:
Iraq

38613. Iraq's religious mix is at risk

Author:
Gerard Russell
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Iraq is being denuded of its ancient communities, and both it and the world are the poorer for it. As the jihadists of Islamic State try to entrench their rule, it is an open question whether Iraq's religious minorities will survive, and if so, how they can be protected. There is another, deeper question, however. How did Iraq come to have so much religious diversity in the first place, and what does this this say about the type of Islam that prevailed there until the 21st century?
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq

38614. Africa's choice of partners

Author:
Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Summits with Africa are in fashion: in August, President Obama hosted America's first; in April, the European Union staged the fourth EU-Africa summit in Brussels; the BRICS countries–Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa–held one in Durban in March last year; and in June 2013 Japan hosted its five-yearly conference on African development in Yokohama. Next year will see the sixth China-Africa summit. South America, South Korea and Turkey, which have all held summits with African leaders in recent years, have pledged return matches in Africa.
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Europe

38615. The blue helmet blues

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Imagine a dystopian future in which NATO, struggling against Islamist terrorism, has to deploy troops on a constant basis across Africa and the Middle East. Then all of a sudden it is struck by a series of calamities: more than 40 personnel are taken hostage in the Middle East, soldiers start dying on a weekly basis on the edge of the Sahara and an operation to handle an outbreak of ebola begins to spiral out of control. NATO, you might expect, would give up in exhaustion. After Afghanistan, western powers have little appetite for quagmires.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, and Middle East

38616. YouGov poll: EU comeback

Author:
Thomas Raines
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
British attitudes to the European Union have become generally more favourable over the past two years, according to a YouGov poll for Chatham House. Those who say they would vote to stay in the EU now have the narrowest of leads–40 per cent to 39 per cent. Two years ago, 49 per cent said they would vote to leave, against 30 per cent to stay.
Political Geography:
Europe

38617. Postcard from Södertälje, Sweden

Author:
Mikael Oez
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
If you want to hear the language spoken by Christ, all you need to do is to take a short bus ride from Stockholm to the town of Södertälje. There you will find thousands of Syriac Christians speaking Aramaic as it was spoken in the time of Jesus.
Political Geography:
Iraq and Turkey

38618. Expert view: Afghanistan

Author:
Michael Keating
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This has been a roller-coaster year for Afghans. It has included vigorous presidential and provincial election campaigns, a protracted political crisis, the formation of a government of national unity, the inauguration of a president with big new ideas, a financial crunch, devastating natural disasters, widening Taliban attacks and a surge in the number of Afghans being killed. Meanwhile, the US-led International Security Assistance Force is winding down and will conclude in December.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

38619. Review: Bauhaus and a spirit of subtle resistance

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Two items from the exhibition tell revealing stories about life in Germany in the 20th Century. Both have a link to the Weimar School of Architecture and Design, called the Bauhaus, which pioneered modern design in the 1920s. Because of its socialist and internationalist outlook, the Nazis set out to destroy it.
Political Geography:
Germany

38620. Date with history: The bullet train at 50

Author:
Christian Wolmar
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The opening of the first high-speed line, the Japanese Shinkansen, ushered in a new era of rail travel but it has taken a surprisingly long time for the concept to spread. Indeed, 50 years later, there are still barely a dozen countries that boast trains that can be described as high-speed. And while there are lots of schemes in the offing, the huge cost and long lead times are proving a barrier for their rapid spread.
Political Geography:
Japan

38621. Review: Camp David recalled

Author:
Burhan Wazir
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Middle East is a landscape littered with unrealized peace treaties, broken promises and failed intentions. In the four years since uprisings and reprisals took hold of Egypt, Syria, Libya, Bahrain, Oman and Tunisia, two diplomatic constants have dominated: The limited influence of American power, and a dearth of leadership in the region. Political intransigence and sectarian violence weren't always the norm in the Middle East. Lawrence Wright's new book, Thirteen Days in September, chronicles an era, almost four decades ago, when compromise was considered an asset. Over 13 days at Camp David in Maryland in 1978, US President Jimmy Carter was able to extract a peace treaty from Egyptian president Anwar Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin. The accord is still the most lasting achievement to emerge from the Arab-Israeli conflict of the 20th century.
Topic:
Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Oman

38622. 5 Things: C K Scott Moncrieff

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
C K Scott Moncrieff was born into a well-to-do Scottish family in the late 19th century. While a schoolboy, he received an entree into the gay literary coterie centred on Robbie Ross, Oscar Wilde's lover, leading to a lifelong friendship with Wilde's son, Vyvyan Holland.
Political Geography:
Italy and Scotland

38623. Review: 3 books on Europe

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Danny Dorling's book is presented as an opportunity to explore the cost of the growing disparity between the very richest in society and the rest. What results, however, is an attempt to correlate facts and figures to much broader societal trends, but not always with justification.
Political Geography:
Europe

38624. Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation

Author:
Henry Sokolski (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Governments have funded most of the nuclear industry's research and development, financed or guaranteed loans for its construction and export of nuclear plants, capped its liability for offsite damages in the case of nuclear accidents, and promoted its development internationally. Throughout, officials have insisted that the dangers of nuclear weapons proliferation attendant to the further spread of nuclear energy programs are manageable.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements

38625. 2014-15 Key Strategic Issues List

Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
How can the Army prepare, train, and retain leaders, both uniformed and civilian, with the necessary multifaceted experience to take on a broad range of missions and roles? What is the best way to prepare such leaders to succeed in a world of change, complexity, and uncertainty? (POC: Dr. Don Snider, SSI, don.m.snider.vol@mail.mil , 717-245-3142).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Governance

38626. Countering Radicalization and Recruitment to Al-Qaeda: Fighting the War of Deeds

Author:
Paul Kamolnick
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Disrupting, dismantling, and ultimately defeating al-Qaeda-based, affiliated, and inspired terrorism is the declared policy of the U.S. Government (USG). Despite noteworthy success in attacking the al-Qaeda (AQ) terrorist network and securing the homeland from terrorist attack, the United States has yet to execute an effective methodology for countering radicalization and recruitment to AQ. This monograph proposes a distinct War of Deeds methodology for accomplishing this.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States

38627. Soldiers of Misfortune?

Author:
Thomas R. Mockaiti
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Private contractors have become an essential but highly problematic element in the U.S. military's total force structure. The Army in particular relies heavily on contractors to perform duties that free up Soldiers for combat roles. The vast majority of these civilian employees provide logistical and technical support. They build facilities, do laundry, and staff dining halls on U.S. bases at home and abroad. While some of these contractors have been involved in issues of waste, fraud, and abuse, these issues do not have a significant Effect on the conduct of contingency operations, especially counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arabia

38628. From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006

Author:
Jean-loup Samaan
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
For 7 years now, the border area between Israel and Lebanon has witnessed calm and stability. At first sight, this has all the appearances of a paradox. The 2006 war between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese organization, Hezbollah, was followed neither by a peace agreement nor by a mere diplomatic process. Both sides prepared their forces to wage the next war and additionally have been confronted in past years to major changes in the distribution of power in the Middle East in the midst of the so-called “Arab Spring.”
Topic:
Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38629. Islamism and Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina

Author:
Leslie S. Lebl
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Bosnia-Herzegovina, once thought to be on the way to joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), is instead falling behind, mired in political bickering, economic stalemate, and governmental dysfunction. In this difficult situation, Islamism poses a significant threat to Bosnia's fragile domestic stability. Although the levels of Islamist terrorism and separatist movements are comparable to those elsewhere in Europe, they are particularly troublesome in Bosnia for two reasons. First, senior political and religious Bosniak (Muslim) leaders have long-standing ties to the Muslim Brother - hood and Islamist terrorism, including al-Qaeda and Iran, that they are very reluctant to abandon. Second, Islamism contributes significantly to Bosnia's dysfunction as a country. Calls to re-impose traditional Islamic law, or sharia, arouse opposition from Bosnian Serbs and Croats, as does the nostalgia for the Otto-man Empire and Islamic Caliphate shared by key Bosniak leaders, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Turkish government.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Herzegovina

38630. The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in the Pacific

Author:
John R. Deni
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The time has come for a reappraisal of the U.S. Army's forward presence in East Asia, given the significantly changed strategic context and the extraordinarily high, recurring costs of deploying U.S. Army forces from the 50 states for increasingly important security cooperation activities across the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater. For economic, political, diplomatic, and military reasons, the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater continues to grow in importance to the United States. As part of a broad, interagency, multifaceted approach, the U.S. military plays a critical role in the rebalancing effort now underway. The U.S. Army in particular has a special role to play in bolstering the defense of allies and the deterrence of aggression, promoting regional security and stability, and ameliorating the growing U.S.-China security dilemma.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

38631. Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust and devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership's preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan's transition draws closer. By recalibrating relations toward economic ties and seeking solutions to the presence of millions of Afghan refugees on its soil, Pakistan could engage more constructively with its neighbour.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia

38632. China's Global Agricultural Strategy: An Open System to Safeguard the Country's Food Security

Author:
Zhang Hongzhou and Cheng Guoqiang
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
National food security will continue to be the top strategic issue confronting Chinese policymakers. In the next two decades of rapid income growth, China's total demand for agricultural products will increase in the face of diminishing water and land resources, and the task of feeding the 1.3 billion Chinese people will be even more challenging. The authors suggest that a global agricultural strategy is the strategic choice for China because it enables China to safeguard national food security and at the same time, tackle its rising domestic demand for agricultural resources in the face of environmental pressures.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
East Asia

38633. Turning the Tide on Ebola: Scaling up public health campaigns before it's too late

Author:
Debbie Hillier
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is totally unprecedented. The accelerating number of cases, the poor health infrastructure in affected countries, the short supply of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding this disease are providing a huge challenge to affected governments and the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Health Care Policy, and Ebola
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

38634. Even it Up: Time to end extreme inequality

Author:
Emma Seery and Ana Arendar
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Nthabiseng was born to a poor black family in Limpopo, a rural area in South Africa. On the same day, Pieter was born nearby in a rich suburb of Cape Town. Nthabiseng's mother had no formal schooling and her father is unemployed, whereas Pieter's parents both completed university education at Stellenbosch University and have well-paid jobs.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Gender Issues, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
South Africa

38635. Food, Fossil Fuels and Filthy Finance

Author:
Hannah Stoddart, Lydia Prieg, and Joseph Zacune
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The world produces enough food to feed everyone. But every day more than 800 million people go to bed hungry. This is a scandal and climate change is set to make things even worse.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

38636. Hidden Hunger in South Africa: The faces of hunger and malnutrition in a food-secure nation

Author:
Yared Teka Tsegay, Masiiwa Rusare, and Rashmi Mistry
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Africa is considered a 'food-secure' nation, producing enough calories to adequately feed every one of its 53 million people. However, the reality is that, despite some progress since the birth of democracy in 1994, one in four people currently suffers hunger on a regular basis and more than half of the population live in such precarious circumstances that they are at risk of going hungry.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
South Africa

38637. From Crisis to Catastrophe: South Sudan's man-made crisis — and how the world must act now to prevent catastrophe in 2015

Author:
Isabel Martins
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Sudan is facing the world's worst food crisis, driven by the conflict that erupted in December 2013. Unless there is an end to the fighting, this food crisis will continue. Without far stronger international pressure, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved. International diplomacy – as well as aid and the protection of civilians on the ground – is urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

38638. Making the Impossible Possible: An overview of governance programming in fragile contexts

Author:
Jo Rowlands
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Oxfam works in many countries that are considered fragile – where governance is weak or authoritarian, where people face significant poverty and marginalization, and where the challenges of doing 'aid' work are huge.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance

38639. Action Research in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel

Author:
Kate Bowen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country projects delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict - affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

38640. Fostering Community Change in the West Bank

Author:
Louie Fooks
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country programmes delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 20 16 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

38641. Women and Inclusive Peace Building in Afghanistan

Author:
Babrak Osman
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Afghanistan is one of four Oxfam country programmes delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

38642. Building a Social Contract in South Sudan

Author:
Rama Anthony
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Sudan is one of four Oxfam country projects delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict - affected and fragile contexts – and is sharing the experience and learning within Oxfam and with the wider development world.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

38643. Should Korea Join the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Cathleen Cimino
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a megaregional agreement to lower barriers to trade and investment and promote economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, has been a dynamic process with a number of countries joining the talks in midstream. Since negotiations began in March 2010, participation in the TPP talks has expanded several times to include Malaysia (October 2010), Vietnam (December 2010), Canada and Mexico (October 2012), and Japan (July 2013). In November 2013, Korea announced its interest in participating in the TPP and began consulting with the countries involved. The TPP now has 12 participants. Korea is still considering whether to become lucky 13.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Canada, Asia, Vietnam, Korea, and Mexico

38644. Versailles Redux? Eurozone Competitiveness in a Dynamic Balassa-Samuelson-Penn Framework

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Kevin Stahler
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Prima facie, competitiveness adjustments in the eurozone, based on unit labor cost developments, appear sensible and in line with what the economic analyst might have predicted and the economic doctor might have ordered. But a broader and arguably better—Balassa-Samuelson-Penn (BSP)—framework for analyzing these adjustments paints a very different picture. Taking advantage of the newly released PPP-based estimates of the International Comparison Program (2011), we identify a causal BSP relationship. We apply this framework to computing more appropriate measures of real competitiveness changes in Europe and other advanced economies in the aftermath of the recent global crises. There has been a deterioration, not improvement, in competitiveness in the periphery countries between 2007 and 2013. Second, the pattern of adjustment within the eurozone has been dramatically perverse, with Germany having improved competitiveness by 9 percent and with Greece's having deteriorated by 9 percent. Third, real competitiveness changes are strongly correlated with nominal exchange rate changes, which suggests the importance of having a flexible (and preferably independent) currency for effecting external adjustments. Fourth, internal devaluation—defined as real competitiveness improvements in excess of nominal exchange rate changes—is possible but seems limited in scope and magnitude. Our results are robust to adjusting the BSP framework to take account of the special circumstances of countries experiencing unemployment. Even if we ignore the BSP effect, the broad pattern of limited and lopsided adjustment in the eurozone remains.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

38645. Sustainability of Public Debt in the United States and Japan

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper applies the probabilistic debt sustainability model developed for the euro area in Cline (2012, 2014) to sovereign debt in the United States and Japan. The results indicate that to avoid further increases in the expected ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual primary deficits will need to be reduced by about 0.75 percent of GDP in the United States and by about 3 percent of GDP in Japan from the likely baselines as of mid-2014.
Topic:
Debt, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and East Asia

38646. Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon, Tamim Bayoumi, and Christian Saborowski
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We use a cross-country panel framework to analyze the effect of net official flows (chiefly foreign exchange intervention) on current accounts. We find that net official flows have a large but plausible effect on current account balances. The estimated effects are larger with instrumental variables (42 cents to the dollar on average compared with 24 without instruments), reflecting a possible downward bias in regressions without instruments owing to an endogenous response of net official flows to private financial flows. We consistently find larger impacts of net official flows when international capital flows are restricted and smaller impacts when capital is highly mobile. A further result is that there is an important positive effect of lagged net official flows on current accounts that we believe operates through the portfolio balance channel.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy

38647. What Goes into a Medal: Women's Inclusion and Success at the Olympic Games

Author:
Marcus Noland and Kevin Stahler
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines determinants of women's participation and performance in the Olympics. Female inclusion and success are not merely functions of size, wealth, and host advantage, but a more complex process involving the socio-economic status of women and, more weakly, broad societal attitudes on gender issues. Female labor force participation and educational attainment in particular are tightly correlated with both participation and outcomes, even controlling for per capita income. Female educational attainment is strongly correlated with both the breadth of participation across sporting events and success in those events. Host countries and socialist states also are associated with unusually high levels of participation and medaling by female athletes. Medal performance is affected by large-scale boycotts. Opening competition to professionals may have leveled the playing field for poorer countries. But the historical record for women's medal achievement is utterly distorted by the doping program in the former East Germany, which specifically targeted women. At its peak in the 1970s and 1980s, the program was responsible for 17 percent of the medals awarded to women, equivalent to the medal hauls of the Soviet or American team in 1972, the last Olympics not marred by widespread abuse of performance-enhancing drugs.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
America and Germany

38648. Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational

Author:
Adam S. Posen and David G. Blanchflower
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In this paper we examine the impact of rises in inactivity on wages in the US economy and find evidence of a statistically significant negative effect. These nonparticipants exert additional downward pressure on wages over and above the impact of the unemployment rate itself. This pattern holds across recent decades in the US data, and the relationship strengthens in recent years when variation in participation increases. We also examine the impact of long-term unemployment on wages and find it has no different effect from that of short-term unemployment. Our analysis provides strong empirical support, we argue, for the assessment that continuing labor market slack is a key reason for the persistent shortfall in inflation relative to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation goal. Further, we suggest our results point towards using wage inflation as an additional intermediate target for monetary policy by the FOMC.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

38649. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

38650. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Middle East

38651. The Islamic State

Author:
Richard Barrett
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity. The Islamic State is most notable for the violence with which it asserts control, but its ruthless tactics will likely prevent the group from ruling effectively and building broader support beyond the front line fighters who protect its security and the authoritarian killers who patrol its streets.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38652. TSG IntelBrief: The Death of the Free Syrian Army?

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The collapse of two prominent coalition-supported Syrian rebel groups at the hands of al-Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) has not just compounded doubts against the capabilities and loyalties of these groups but also doubt as to whether any "moderate" rebel group can succeed. This long-simmering uncertainty about arming and training rebel groups that aren't as cohesive or even as moderate as once hoped throws into question the prospects of an acceptable military solution to the almost four-year long Syrian civil war. The coalition-equipped rebel groups Harakat Hazm and the Syrian Revolutionary Front were overrun in northern Syria by JN-though most rebel groups have long cooperated with it and, unlike Washington, don't consider the group to be a terrorist organization. Reports of increased airstrikes against JN will further drive a wedge between most rebel groups and the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), that demands the primary target is the Bashar al-Assad regime and not extremist groups fighting it. The realities of settling the civil war exclusively, thus far, via rebel military might open up other avenues for non-military actors to assume a role in resolving the war; after all, there are an estimated 2.5 million refugees and another 6.5 internally displaced persons in Syria, with obvious needs that perhaps new Syrian civilian leadership might stand up to address.
Topic:
Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

38653. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

38654. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: A Monopoly on Messaging

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The deliberate targeting and killing of journalists by The Islamic State (IS) and the resulting lack of outside reporting has created a nearly information-free zone for the group to fill with its own messaging. The group's embrace of the decentralized nature of social media has allowed its many thousands of cyber-supporters to create and operate their own ministries of propaganda. Abu Mohammad al-Adnani is the official spokesman for the group, but the notion of an official spokesman does not really apply to IS in the way it has applied to al Qaeda; the crowdsourcing of messages negates the need for a single point of contact.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Communications, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, North Africa, and Syria

38655. TSG IntelBrief: Ordered Chaos: The Structure of The Islamic State

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
For a group that feeds on chaos, The Islamic State (IS) itself is rigidly structured and organized. The growing bureaucratic and administrative demands on IS as it attempts to govern the areas it controls-while under increasing military pressure-will stress the group and its structure like never before. The group benefits from ruling over populations that have little experience in effective government services, meaning that the very conditions that helped fuel IS's rise now give it wide latitude to deliver sub-par services for at least the near-term without risking revolt, at least for reasons of shoddy governance. From the caliph-level down to the district level, the group has a repetitive three-office ruling structure that provides easy-to-understand lanes of responsibility and authority, which is vital for a growing organization whose sole membership requirement is belief in its cause.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

38656. TSG IntelBrief: Removing The Islamic State from Local Economies

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Like a tumor, the Islamic State (IS) feeds off the vitality of its unwilling hosts, sustaining itself from the economies of the areas it controls Efforts to deprive IS of its million-dollar-a-day revenue will be as difficult as it will be vital, since the group takes a percentage of local economic activity; hurting those economies to deprive IS of money will be counter-productive The coalition efforts to defeat IS militarily must be sufficient enough to thwart its advances while remaining targeted enough to ensure the vulnerable population doesn't unite with IS in collective suffering Destroying mobile oil refineries is an effective use of air power to deny IS more finances but it will prove less effective against destroying the percentage IS takes from everyday transactions that it calls taxes In short, the solution is to remove IS from the money, not the other way around, which only will only weaken and radicalize already struggling populations.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

38657. TSG IntelBrief: From Bucca to Kobani: The Hybrid Ideology of the Islamic State

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The reshaping of what is now the Islamic State (IS) began among the detainee populations in military prisons such as Camp Bucca in Iraq, where violent extremists and former regime personalities forged mutual interests over years of confinement IS is now a chimera of Ba'athist and takfiri ideologies, with the organizational skills of the former helping channel the motivational fervor of the latter It is more than a marriage of convenience between the two seemingly at-odds groups; the former Ba'athists among the group and the religious ideologues now have visions of a return to Sunni glory that merges Usama bin Ladin with Saddam Hussein While at smaller unit levels there will be conflict between the two halves of the whole-as witnessed in the fighting between IS and the Naqshbandi Army after the fall of Mosul-the former regime officers who are now senior leaders in IS appear fully committed to the ideals and goals of the group, a result of a thorough radicalization that has extended from imprisonment years ago up to now These prison-hardened fighters were so important to IS that they undertook a year-long campaign (2012-2013) called "Breaking the Walls" to free what would prove to be the last pieces needed for expansion.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38658. TSG IntelBrief: The Logic of Foreign Fighters as Suicide Bombers

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
While there is understandable concern that an unknown percentage of foreign fighters fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) might return to their home countries intent on continuing the fight, IS appears intent on using them in suicide attacks in both Iraq and Syria IS goes to great length to publicize the foreign fighters who die in suicide attacks, which greatly enhances the group in the eyes of unstable people looking for martyrdom, creating a feedback loop of death A recent statement by IS showed that 80% of the suicide attacks in Iraq between September and early October were committed by foreign fighters; this continues a trend of IS using their foreign fighters in suicide attacks while Iraqi fighters take on the role of traditional soldiers Along with Saudi nationals, who conducted 60% of the suicide attacks referenced above, fighters from North Africa consistently feature prominently in IS suicide attacks, which closely matches the suicide bombing statistics from the 2003 Iraq war, though now there are more suicide operatives from western Europe
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38659. TSG IntelBrief: Lack of Trust Hinders Second Sunni Awakening

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Coalition airstrikes are intended to blunt the momentum of the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and provide time for a popular Sunni uprising that might never happen given the understandable lack of trust among all sides The Sunni Awakening that helped diminish the precursor group to IS in 2006-2009 is the successful outlier in Iraq's history of tragic uprisings; and it will not likely be replicated since the conditions that allowed it to succeed no longer exist To that end, one of the foundational assumptions of the effort to dismantle IS-that the Sunni tribes will soon rise up and oppose IS in a second Awakening-is built on uncertain ground Sunni tribal leaders realize there won't be anything near 2007-levels of support (material, financial, training) if they oppose IS en masse, and after gaining next to nothing politically after the first Awakening, there is no trust in a different outcome for any second Awakening Reports of a failed Sunni uprising in eastern Syria are additional disincentives for both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni populations to fight IS, and additional incentive to wait and see what external factors will emerge to change the status quo.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

38660. TSG IntelBrief: The Fight the Islamic State Really Wants: Iraqi Shi'a

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
With apparent heavy losses in Kobani, Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS) is stepping up efforts to ignite the one fight it wants above all: a full sectarian war with Iraq's Shi'a population IS will likely accept serious losses, as long as it can claim to be the Sunni extremist vanguard in the fight against the Shi'a; this means the group will focus on high-profile and high-casualty attacks against Shi'a symbols and populations With the February 2006 bombing the 'Golden Mosque' in Samarra, Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi finally got the fight he was looking for against the Shi'a and in doing so moved the IS precursor group AQI further up the list of the most feared and capable Iraqi extremist groups The new government of Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi will be pressured to overreact to IS attacks and to let loose the Shi'a militia that battled with both Sunni extremists and innocents alike eight years ago; a heavy-handed sectarian response will be a disaster for the country, even if it is asking a great deal for those being attacked to show restraint.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Arab Countries

38661. TSG IntelBrief: Jordan and the War Next Door

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
In neighboring Iraq, over 1,100 Jordanians are believed to be fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) according to Jordanian former Prime Minister Maruf al-Bakhit, with another 200 having already died fighting Although that's only 0.0203% of Jordan's 6.4 million population, and enough for serious concern, it's testament to Jordanian society that with the constant fighting next door such a small percentage have taken up arms for IS After the 2005 Amman bombings, al Qaeda in Iraq (the precursor to IS) was widely despised in Jordan; now nine years later, over a thousand Jordanians are fighting for the same group In his October 18, 2014 remarks, Bakhit stated that there were between 2,000-4,000 Jordanians who adhere to the violent takfiri ideology most famously espoused by the late Jordanian Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi Along with the fear of a radicalized population after a decade of war raging across two of its borders is the fear of what happens next in Iraq and Syria According to Bakhit, a partitioned Iraq is too problematic to work despite its obvious appeal amid the current fighting, with resources unevenly distributed across the country and Baghdad far too mixed for one side to claim.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

38662. TSG IntelBrief: Saudi Arabia's Challenges

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
As King Abdullah remains out of sight, worries persist over Saudi Arabia's ability to handle its many domestic and foreign issues The Sunni-Shi'a divide is now seen largely in terms of competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran But it is not just the Sunni-Shi'a tension which impacts the region as Saudi Arabia and Turkey also compete for primacy in the Arab Middle East; the three-way competition has been a key factor in the chronic conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen Common antipathy toward the self-declared Islamic State is the only glue that holds together the US-led coalition at this time: there's no consensus on how to defeat it, what to put in its place, and the role of Iran-issues made more complicated by questions about Saudi Arabia's internal decision process.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Power Politics, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

38663. TSG IntelBrief: The U.S.-India Relationship Reinvigorated

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's September visit to the United States allowed for the "soft reset" of a strategic partnership that has been in search of greater focus in recent years The smiles and handshakes served to ease the anxieties that had been building on both sides and had contributed to increased squabbling in the bilateral relationship Mutual frustrations are likely to continue in areas such as intellectual property rights and multilateral trade negotiations, where there has been no reconciliation in the two countries' largely incompatible points of view The U.S. and India share clearly convergent interests in both combating Islamist militancy and in balancing against a rising China Although the partnership's full potential is far from realized, these two geostrategic issues are sufficient to keep the trajectory positive and to sustain widely-held hopes that ties between the world's two largest democracies will continue to deepen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

38664. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and the Divided Opposition

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The self-declared Islamic State (IS)'s strategy of exploiting and exacerbating divisions among its opponents ranks as one of its greatest weapons, and one of the coalition's greatest weaknesses Turkey's airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in southeast Turkey are the latest example-and perhaps most damaging in the near-term-of opponents of IS fighting each other instead of the group IS was sustained during its weakest period (2008-2010) in part by exploiting real tensions between various groups-Sunni vs Shi'a, Sunni vs Sunni, Sunni vs Kurd, etc-that prevented an "everybody vs IS" opposition that remains the only way to defeat the group IS will continue to create/exacerbate/leverage the differences between the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Qatar, the Kurds and various parties, so much so that focus is more on tactically keeping the coalition together and less on strategically strangling IS.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

38665. TSG IntelBrief: Iran Nuclear Talks Intersect Regional Events

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Iran is attempting to link greater cooperation against the so-called Islamic State (IS) organization to concessions by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program Iran and the P5+1 remain far apart on the core issue of Iran's uranium enrichment program, increasing the likelihood that the talks will be extended beyond the current deadline of November 24 Iran requires a nuclear deal to satisfy public expectations and to increase its influence on regional events, including the US-led effort against IS A key Iranian goal is to dissuade the coalition from expanding the anti-IS campaign to include destabilizing the Assad regime in Syria.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria

38666. TSG IntelBrief: Coalition Under Stress: Iran Won't be Excluded

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
As if sustaining an effective coalition against the anti-Islamic State coalition weren't complicated enough, increasingly open Iranian support for Syrian and Iraqi Kurds has the potential to further destabilize the situation Geopolitical machinations have excluded Iran from the international coalition but geographical realities will ensure the country has a significant role to play in the future of both Iraq and Syria Iran is seeking to leverage its support for the Kurds as a way to bolster its beleaguered ally in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, and increase Iranian influence in Kurdish regions at the expense of Turkey and the West Overt Iranian support for the Kurds-while reaffirming support for Assad-will further stress the coalition, inevitably increasing sectarian tensions among members already grumbling that Assad and not IS is the true enemy; all while the West remains focused on IS and how to avoid entanglement in Syria As a sign of Iran's surprising Kurdish influence, Turkish and Iranian officials met on October 9 to discuss the unfolding events in Kobani, remarkable in that neither country is a member of the coalition but both hold most of the cards to resolve the immediate crisis.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria

38667. Beyond Magic Bullets in Governance Reform

Author:
Diane De Gramont
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Domestic reformers and external donors have invested enormous energy and resources into improving governance in developing countries since the 1990s. Yet there is still remarkably little understanding of how governance progress actually occurs in these contexts. Reform strategies that work well in some places often prove disappointing elsewhere. A close examination of governance successes in the developing world indicates that effective advocacy must move beyond a search for single-focus “magic bullet” solutions toward an integrated approach that recognizes multiple interrelated drivers of governance change.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
South Korea

38668. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

Author:
Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The current turmoil in Egypt—including social strife, polarization, and violence—has cast shadows on the potential for Islamist integration as well as the regime's ability to achieve political stability. Shifting external and internal dynamics of Islamist organizations indicate five possible scenarios for the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its path will have far-reaching implications for political Islam and democratization in Egypt.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

38669. Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Inclusion: A New Development Consensus?

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Four key principles—accountability, transparency, participation, and inclusion—have in recent years become nearly universal features of the policy statements and programs of international development organizations. Yet this apparently widespread new consensus is deceptive: behind the ringing declarations lie fundamental fissures over the value and application of these concepts. Understanding and addressing these divisions is crucial to ensuring that the four principles become fully embedded in international development work.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid

38670. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

38671. Ending Libya's Civil War: Reconciling Politics, Rebuilding Security

Author:
Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than three years after the fall of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is in the midst of a bitter civil war rooted in a balance of weakness between the country's political factions and armed groups. With a domestic landscape torn apart by competing claims to power and with interference from regional actors serving to entrench divides, restoring stability in Libya and building a unified security structure will be difficult if not impossible without broad-based political reconciliation.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

38672. Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications

Author:
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the Arab Spring, Qatar moved away from its traditional foreign policy role as diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa and support transitioning states. Regional actors viewed Qatar's approach as overreaching, and skepticism of Doha's policy motivations increased. Qatar's new leadership, which came to power in June 2013, is adapting by reverting to a more pragmatic foreign policy and addressing the fallout from its support for Islamist movements in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

38673. China's Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth

Author:
Yukon Huang and Canyon Bosler
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Much of the media coverage of China's economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China's mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
China and East Asia

38674. Dr. Hans Blix: Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm

Author:
Hans Blix
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program titled, Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm, features an address by Dr. Hans Blix, former Executive Chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission for Iraq, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38675. Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee

Author:
Lincoln Chafee
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program titled, Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee, will feature a discussion with Lincoln D. Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island and the following participants: Introduction:David Johnston, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University in the City of New York Interlocutor:Ester Fuchs, Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and New York

38676. Rached Ghannouchi: Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World

Author:
Rached Ghannouchi
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program titled, Rached Ghannouchi: Islam, Democracy, and the Future of the Muslim World, features an address by Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia's Ennahdha Party, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Islam, Governance, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

38677. Children in the Age of Sustainable Development

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Children are the common basis for sustainable development but often lack a participatory voice and societal influence. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have proven that raised awareness, leadership, increased investments in Early Childhood Development, basic interventions in health, nutrition, care and protection and partnership with the private sector can prevent millions of children from dying from preventable causes like malaria, HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, pneumonia, and famime while providing an opportunity to secure children's wellbeing and development. This discussion seeks to unify the various aspects of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and identify a framework for children's development that underpins many of the targets and indicators under consideration.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Human Welfare

38678. Her Excellency Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by Her Excellency Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway titled, To End Poverty, We Need Peace, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Political Economy, Poverty, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

38679. His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

38680. His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, President of the Republic of Tunisia

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, President of the Republic of Tunisia, titled The Arab Spring and the Tunisia Initiative on Creating an International Constitutional Court, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Governance, Law, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

38681. The Value of Forest Ecosystem Services to Developing Economies

Author:
Katrina Mullan
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper assesses the scale of the potential co-benefits for residents of developing countries of protecting forest ecosystems in order to mitigate climate change. The objective is to improve understanding among development practitioners of the ways in which services provided by forest ecosystems can also make important contributions to achieving development objectives such as improvements to health and safety, and maintenance of food and energy security. This is achieved by reviewing empirical studies that estimate the value of specific ecosystem services derived from forests in order to evaluate and describe the current state of knowledge on how the wellbeing of local people is likely to be affected by the introduction of global mechanisms for avoided deforestation in developing countries. There are four main ways in which wellbeing can be affected: 1) forests provide soil protection and water regulation services, which in turn reduce waterborne diseases, maintain irrigation water supply, and mitigate risks of natural disaster; 2) forests provide habitat for birds, fish, mammals and insects that affect human health and income generation opportunities; 3) clearing forest through use of fire can lead to respiratory illness and property damage, particularly if the fires spread accidentally; and 4) tropical forests are particularly high in biodiversity, making them important locally as well as globally as a potential source of genetic material for new crop varieties and pharmaceuticals. Evidence on the size of these benefits suggests that while they are highly variable, households in or near forests and poor households benefit most from forest ecosystem services.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Food

38682. Ecosystem Services from Tropical Forests: Review of Current Science

Author:
Katrina Brandon
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tropical forests exert a more profound influence on weather patterns, freshwater, natural disasters, biodiversity, food, and human health–both in the countries where forests are found and in distant countries–than any other terrestrial biome. This report explains the variety of environmental services tropical forests provide and the science underlying how forests provide these services. Tropical deforestation and degradation have reduced the area covered by tropical forests from 12 percent to less than 5 percent of Earth's land area. Forest loss and degradation has reduced or halted the flows of a wide range of ecosystem goods and services, increasing the vulnerability of potentially billions of people to a variety of damaging impacts. Established and emerging science findings suggest that we have substantially underestimated the global importance of tropical forests and the impacts of their loss on human well-being.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, and Natural Resources

38683. Who Pollutes? A Household-Level Database of America's Greenhouse Gas Footprint

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper describes the creation of a database providing estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints for 6 million US households over the period 2008-2012. The database allows analysis of footprints for 52 types of consumption (e.g. electricity, gasoline, apparel, beef, air travel, etc.) within and across geographic regions as small as individual census tracts. Potential research applications with respect to carbon pricing and tax policy are discussed. Preliminary analysis reveals:
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and America

38684. How Much Will Health Coverage Cost? Future Health Spending Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico

Author:
Amanda Glassman and Juan Ignacio Zoloa
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As Latin American countries seek to expand the coverage and benefits provided by their health systems under a global drive for universal health coverage (UHC), decisions taken today–whether by government or individuals-will have an impact tomorrow on public spending requirements. To understand the implications of these decisions and define needed policy reforms, this paper calculates long-term projections for public spending on health in three countries, analyzing different scenarios related to population, risk factors, labor market participation, and technological growth. In addition, the paper simulates the effects of different policy options and their potential knock-on effects on health expenditure.
Topic:
Health, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

38685. Costing a Data Revolution

Author:
Gabriel Demombynes and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The lack of reliable development statistics for many poor countries has led the U.N. to call for a “data revolution” (United Nations, 2013). One fairly narrow but widespread interpretation of this revolution is for international aid donors to fund a coordinated wave of household surveys across the developing world, tracking progress on a new round of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. We use data from the International Household Survey Network (IHSN) to show (i) the supply of household surveys has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years and that (ii) demand for survey data appears to be higher in democracies and more aid-dependent countries. We also show that given existing international survey programs, the cost to international aid donors of filling remaining survey gaps is manageable--on the order of $300 million per year. We argue that any aid-financed expansion of household surveys should be complemented with (a) increased access to data through open data protocols, and (b) simultaneous support for the broader statistical system, including routine administrative data systems.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and United Nations

38686. Trading Forests: Quantifying the Contribution of Global Commodity Markets to Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Author:
Martin Persson, Sabine Henders, and Thomas Kastner
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper aims to improve our understanding of how and where global supply-chains link consumers of agricultural and forest commodities across the world to forest destruction in tropical countries. A better understanding of these linkages can help inform and support the design of demand-side interventions to reduce tropical deforestation. To that end, we map the link between deforestation for four commodities (beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products) in eight case countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea) to consumption, through international trade. Although few, the studied countries comprise a large share of the internationally traded volumes of the analyzed commodities: 83% of beef and 99% of soybean exports from Latin America, 97% of global palm oil exports, and roughly half of (official) tropical wood products trade. The analysis covers the period 2000-2009. We find that roughly a third of tropical deforestation and associated carbon emissions (3.9 Mha and 1.7 GtCO2) in 2009 can be attributed to our four case commodities in our eight case countries. On average a third of analyzed deforestation was embodied in agricultural exports, mainly to the EU and China. However, in all countries but Bolivia and Brazil, export markets are dominant drivers of forest clearing for our case commodities. If one excludes Brazilian beef on average 57% of deforestation attributed to our case commodities was embodied in exports. The share of emissions that was embodied in exported commodities increased between 2000 and 2009 for every country in our study except Bolivia and Malaysia.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Bolivia

38687. Why Maintaining Tropical Forests Is Essential and Urgent for a Stable Climate

Author:
Rosa C. Goodman and Martin Herold
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tropical forests have the highest carbon density and cover more land area than forests in any other biome. They also serve a vital role as a natural buffer to climate change ―capturing 2.2–2.7 Gt of carbon per year. Unfortunately, tropical forests, mangroves, and peatlands are also subjected to the highest levels of deforestation and account for nearly all net emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) (1.1–1.4 Gt C / year). Net emissions from FOLU accounted for only 11% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or 14% of total carbon emissions in 2010, though these figures are somewhat misleading and do not reflect the full potential of tropical forests to mitigate climate change. First, net FOLU emissions have reduced only slightly while emissions from all other sectors have skyrocketed. Secondly, the FOLU net flux is made up of two larger fluxes —deforestation emissions (2.6–2.8 Gt C / year) minus sequestration from forest regrowth (1.2–1.7 Gt C / year). Additionally, intact tropical forests also appear to be capturing at least 1.0 Gt C/ year. Gross deforestation, therefore, accounts for over a quarter of all carbon emissions, and tropical forests have removed 22–26% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions in the 2000s. If deforestation were halted entirely, forests were allowed to regrow, and mature forests were left undisturbed, tropical forests alone could have captured 25–35% of all other anthropogenic carbon emissions. On the other hand, if climate change continues unabated, forests could turn from net sinks to net sources of carbon. Forestrelated activities are among the most economically feasible and cost-effective mitigation strategies, which are important for both short- and long-term mitigation strategies. Action is needed immediately to utilize these natural mitigation solutions, and we need coordinated and comprehensive forest-related policies for mitigation. An international mechanism such as REDD+ is essential to realize the great natural potential for tropical forests to stabilize the climate.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and Latin America

38688. Why should we care about 3D-printing and what are potential security implications?

Author:
Dr Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Additive manufacturing, also known as 3 dimensional printing, is not a new technology.The first 3D-printer was unveiled in 1984 by 3D Systems Corporation - some thirty years ago. Some might even argue that the origins of 3D-printing were foreshadowed in the early 1900s through the automated pointing machine used by German sculptor Max Kruse. However, it was only around 2010 that a growing number of businesses and households began to explore its potential, largely due to the introduction of less expensive models. From 2007-2011, sales of 3D-printers grew 200-400 percent every year.
Topic:
Security, Communications, Mass Media, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Germany

38689. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:
Mr Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
President Xi Jinping's July 2014 visit to Seoul indicates that the strategic partnership between China and the Republic of Korea is moving forward against a backdrop of growing power competition and instability in the region. Both Seoul and Beijing have strong interest in close cooperation: Beijing wants to prevent a full-fledged trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea aimed at containing China's rising power Seoul needs Chinese support in its efforts to reach out to Pyongyang and work towards future reunification.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Beijing, Asia, and South Korea

38690. EU Sanctions Against Russia: Europe brings a hard edge to its economic power

Author:
Kristi Raik, Juha Jokela, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU has responded to the Ukraine crisis with a set of political and economic sanctions against Russia which constitute a qualitatively new step in the EU sanctions policy. The EU sanctions against Russia are exceptional and have strategic importance due to a combination of three factors: big power rivalry, the context of a major European crisis with global ramifications, and the costs of the sanctions for the EU itself. The EU has managed to maintain its fragile unity and has applied its collective diplomatic and economic weight in very difficult circumstances. The sanctions have not provided an alternative to diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis - on the contrary, hardening sanctions have been used as a way to put pressure on Russia to seriously engage in diplomacy. The impact of the sanctions on daily developments in Ukraine has been limited and uncertain, but the sanctions have imposed a long-term cost on Russia for violating key international norms. The policy process of Russia sanctions has exposed problems of leadership and coordination. The latest reform of the EU foreign policy machinery has streamlined the preparation of sanctions, but the current system still lacks the necessary resources to match the growing importance of the EU sanctions policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

38691. China's Public Opinion Management: Tightening the Grip in the Digital Age

Author:
Elina Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The number of netizens in China is growing year on year and the increase in the use of mobile technologies to access the internet is the most notable trend of late. Around half of the Chinese population are now internet users. The Chinese leadership has tightened internet control since August 2013. In February 2014, China established Central Internet Security and Information Leading Group, headed by President Xi Jinping, to monitor Chinese cyberspace. Defamatory social media posts were criminalized, and the first sentence was imposed in April 2014. Despite stricter internet control, criticism of the state and politicians has often been tolerated in social media, whereas any content that promotes offline collective action is systematically censored. However, the idea that the development of the internet in China would lead to significant political change seems unwarranted in the current circumstances. Poll data released on September 9 show that almost 90 per cent of the Chinese respondents harbour negative views about Japan. Internet forums and increasing commercialization of the traditional media are contributing to this public opinion trend, which complicates the handling of China's turbulent relations with Japan.
Topic:
Politics, Communications, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

38692. How to Reform the UN Climate Negotiations? Perspectives from the past, present and neighbour negotiations

Author:
Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
There is a pressing need to clarify, institutionalize and increase the efficiency of the work of the UN climate negotiations. This task starts with a systematic search for possible solutions and the political will to begin a long battle to push them through. At the next stage of maturity, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should streamline its work programme, cut sessions, eliminate overlaps, and delete agenda items. These kinds of reforms will be politically fraught, and in practice need to be accomplished together with a package of substantive decisions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Nations

38693. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability

Author:
Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and United Nations

38694. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development

Author:
Solomon Dersso
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

38695. Improving UN Capacity for Rapid Deployment

Author:
H. Peter Langille
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Rapid deployment of large peace operations into conflict zones worldwide is a demanding process. Within the United Nations system, the process is further complicated and frequently delayed by a long list of tasks, including the need to seek the support of member states for the deployment of their national personnel and resources. Yet, rapid deployment remains an important standard with specified response times and an objective that underpins many related reforms.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Nations

38696. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

38697. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector

Author:
Bassem Bouguerra
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Reform
Political Geography:
Arabia and Tunisia

38698. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?

Author:
Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

38699. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World

Author:
Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
Political Geography:
United States and America

38700. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate

Author:
Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq