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1702. Spain: 5-year forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
- Political Geography:
- Spain
1703. Syria: 5-year forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
- Political Geography:
- Syrian Arab Republic
1704. Country forecast overview: Key indicators
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, 5-year summary, and Key indicators
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
1705. Tanzania: 5-year forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, 5-year summary, Forecast, and Forecast summary
- Political Geography:
- Tanzania and United Republic of
1706. Australia-China clashes in the COVID-19 era: Adjusting to a “new normal” in bilateral relations?
- Author:
- Thomas S. Wilkins
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The spread of the novel Corona Virus COVID-19 from the Chinese province of Hebei across the world has resulted in a global pandemic of catastrophic proportions. Certain countries have been affected more severely than others, and there have been glaring disparities in how national governments have responded to the outbreak. In addition to the global death toll of 400,000 (and counting), the industrial and financial disruption has been severe, with the Asian Development Bank estimating the loss to the global economy at between USD$ 5.8-8.8 trillion.1 To overcome the current crisis, and work toward a vaccine, global solidarity, including cooperation through multilateral organizations like the World Heath Organization (WHO), is desperately needed.
- Topic:
- Health, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
1707. Occupational change, artificial intelligence and the geography of EU labour markets
- Author:
- Sybrand Brekelmans and Georgios Petropoulos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- From 2002 up to 2009, the economies of European Union countries went through a skill upgrading, rather than a polarisation between low-skill and high-skill jobs. After 2009, this changed, with declining real wages and a significant increase in the share of workers in low-skill jobs. This assessment evaluates these changes in connection with labour market variables, population densities and the emergence of machine learning and artificial intelligence.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, European Union, Economy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1708. A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns
- Author:
- Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Most governments have taken measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity related to COVID-19. But as lockdowns are lifted, the focus must shift, and governments in advanced economies must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment.
- Topic:
- Government, Labor Issues, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1709. Should Denmark and Sweden join the banking Union?
- Author:
- Dirk Schoenmaker and Svend E. Hougaard Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Though outside the euro area, Denmark and Sweden could benefit from joining the European Union’s banking union. It would provide protection in case of any need to resolve at national level a large bank with a Scandinavian footprint, and would mark a choice in favour of more cross-border banking. But joining the banking union would also involve some loss of decision-making power.
- Topic:
- Markets, European Union, Economy, and Banks
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Sweden
1710. Greening the recovery by greening the fiscal consolidation
- Author:
- Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the wake of COVID-19, some economic recovery policies will help green the economy – for example, energy renovation of buildings. But there are limits to the share of stimulus that can be explicitly green. The European Union should therefore also green the fiscal consolidation by setting out the path to much higher carbon prices than today. This would guide investment and provide revenues to help the fiscal consolidation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, Renewable Energy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1711. An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europe
- Author:
- Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- 'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic.
- Topic:
- Governance, Economy, Central Bank, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1712. COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Elina Ribakova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Central Bank, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Latin America
1713. Brexit and the consequences for fisheries management in the North Sea
- Author:
- Gordon Munro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The North Sea is a very productive fishing area of great importance to surrounding coastal states Norway, the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Denmark and Belgium, with an average total harvest in recent years of slightly more than 1.8 million tonnes. This report explains why the cooperative management of the six shared North Sea fish stocks has been so stable to date and considers what lessons this success holds for the world at large. The report also speculates on the post Brexit management of these resources. The lessons learned from cooperative management over 40 years may well have an impact also on future cooperation between Norway, the UK and the EU27.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Oceans and Seas, and Fishing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands
1714. What would no deal mean?
- Author:
- Anand Menon, David Bailey, Tim Bale, Catherine Barnard, Matthew Bevington, Meredith Crowley, Sarah Hall, Katy Hayward, Martin Heneghan, Carmen Hubbard, Lisa James, Hussein Kassim, Ben Kienzle, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Ivan Rajic, Meg Russell, Jill Rutter, Thomas Sampson, Maddy Thimont-Jack, Alan Wager, and Dan Wincott
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- We now have a Withdrawal Agreement, which means ‘no deal’ means ‘no trade deal’. Yet a no deal outcome would still have profound implications for the UK. As we analyse in this report, from trade to connectivity to foreign policy to cooperation in policing, a failure to strike an agreement with the EU will impact on us in numerous ways.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, European Union, Constitution, Economy, Trade, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1715. Revisited: What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Whether it is because of fishing rights, financial services, the EU’s insistence that the UK adhere to its level playing field, governance demands, or simply running out of time, it is far from clear that a trade deal will be successfully negotiated and approved by the end of 2020. As a consequence, the notion of the UK trading with the EU ‘on WTO terms’ has resurfaced. We have produced this report to explain what the WTO is and what trading on WTO terms actually means legally and practically. It updates an earlier version published in 2018.
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1716. Brexit: what next?
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK has finally left the European Union. Brexit has happened. However, what promises to be a long and complex process of dealing with its implications is only just beginning. Given this, we thought it was worth trying to take stock of where we’ve got to, and to look forward to the challenges that confront us moving forward. Social science has as much, if not more, to offer in phase two as it did in phase one.
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Economy, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1717. Covid 19 and post Brexit migration policy
- Author:
- Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, and Tim Bale
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1718. TESEV Interviews: Data Sharing for Urban Governance Part 7
- Author:
- Rob Kitchin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- With the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNS), the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) has been running the program titled “Supporting Sustainable Cities” since 2016. This year’s project is designed to highlight the need for effective networks that connect key actors for maintaining a workable “data-ecosystem”. In order to bring expert opinion to the discussion, TESEV has conducted a video interview with Prof. Rob Kitchin of Maynooth University with the aim of producing a series of short clips providing key insights. Having served as the principal investigator in the project that gave rise to the Dublin Dashboard among numerous other data initiatives that he led, and as a widely published scholar in open data and data-ecosystems, Kitchin’s comments serve as a guide for potential models of partnership to build effective data-ecosystems. Key pieces of information from our interview are presented in this eight-part mini-series. Part 7: Is it not reasonable to expect cities to take responsibility for the sustainability of urban dashboard projects given that they are the ones benefiting the most from these dashboards?
- Topic:
- Urbanization, Economy, Urban, Sustainability, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Global Focus
1719. The evolution of Belarusian public sector: From command economy to state capitalism?
- Author:
- Aliaksandr Papko
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, Public Sector, Trade, and State Capitalism
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Belarus
1720. Is the economy doomed to a long recession?
- Author:
- Andrzej Halesiak and Andrzej Rzońca
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic. A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus