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202. Vietnam: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
203. Russia: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
204. Russia: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
205. Russia: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
206. Syria: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Syrian Arab Republic
207. Comparative Analysis of Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds RiskAdjusted Performances
- Author:
- Engin Avcı and Hind Benmahi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- Collective investment schemes have been utilizing distinct investment strategies to exploit opportunities offered by the financial markets. Among the alternative collective investment schemes, hedge funds and mutual funds have been attracting great interest. The objective of this study is to compare the risk-adjusted performance of hedge fund strategies with mutual funds strategies. The hedge fund indexes and mutual funds indexes, which are calculated by different database providers are utilized for this purpose. In this study, the indexes from three database providers (Eurekahedge, Credit Suisse, Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM)) are analyzed for the 2008-2021 period using distinct performance measurement metrics as Alpha based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Sharpe ratio and Sortino ratio; moreover, the MSCI World index has been taken as a benchmark. The findings demonstrated that the majority of hedge fund indices performed better than the benchmark MSCI World and provide better risk-adjusted performance than mutual funds.
- Topic:
- Economy, Mutual Funds, Investment, and Hedge Funds
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
208. Book Review: Javier Blas and Jack Farchy, The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources (Oxford University Press, 2021)
- Author:
- Hüseyin Pusat Kildiş
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The World for Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources sheds light on commodity traders, crucial yet often overlooked actors in the global economy. The book is a collection of stories about them, how they get involved in political affairs, where they get their power, and how they work in the shadows. These stories from different times and places show the immense power of commodity traders. Methodologically, the book is mainly based on interviews with more than a hundred traders. Blas and Farchy also collected thousands of pages that detail the finances, business networks, and structure of commodity traders’ organizations (p. 11-12). The book consists of 13 chapters. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 are particularly important since they reveal how commodity traders operate by addressing the energy crisis that arose due to waves of nationalization in the Middle East in the 1970s and 1980s. The book’s main purpose is to reveal the role of despots and tyrants in the global economy by pointing out the unsavory aspects of their businesses, such as bribery and offshore banking. Since most of these methods are illegal and cannot be used by official companies and institutions, such commodity traders come to the fore.
- Topic:
- History, Economy, Book Review, Commodities, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Global Focus
209. Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
- Author:
- Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.
- Topic:
- Economy, Inflation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
210. Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Carmen Reinhart, Douglas Barrios, and Clement Brenot
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s current economic crisis ranks among the worst in recent history. GDP has collapsed by 38% in real terms. The Lebanese lira, which was fixed to the dollar in 1997, has lost more than 98% of its value on the parallel market. The government has defaulted on its debt, and depositors are unable to access their funds held at commercial banks. Consolidated public sector debt, including both government debt and commercial banks’ claims on the Banque du Liban (BdL), represents more than seven times the current GDP. Public services delivery has crumbled. In short, the country is undergoing a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and a growth collapse. Four years into the crisis, a resolution remains elusive, and each passing day increases the economic and social burdens faced by the population. Given the increasing cost of delaying a resolution, we propose a strategy for Lebanon’s economic recovery that addresses all the dimensions of the crisis while recognizing the need to rapidly kick-start the economic recovery.
- Topic:
- Debt, GDP, Economy, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
211. How Pratham Learns While Scaling: A Case Study of Adaptive Design and Evaluation
- Author:
- Jossie Fahsbender, Siddhant Gokhale, and Michael Walton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Developing scalable innovations is a central challenge in development. Organizations that succeed in scaling often prioritize measurement, learning, and evaluation, but how this is done is poorly understood. This paper explores the case of Pratham, one of the largest NGOs in primary education and an exceptional learning organization. While Pratham is renowned for its randomized control trial sequence with J-PAL, we underscore this is just one aspect of a wider array of learning activities. These include an iterative process to continuously refine and protocolize solutions as they scale, the use of on-field qualitative insights and quantitative tracking, open feedback channels between the field, state, and central offices, information exchange among content and evaluation teams, and a nationwide assessment of learning levels (ASER). The RCTs were effective because they were embedded within this broader learning process and culture. Pratham learns at three levels: learning to improve children's basic skills, learning as an organization about what does and doesn’t work, and fostering learning by others in the system. Its learning capacity is rooted in deep-seated values and a culture of openness, trust, problem-solving, and the freedom to experiment and learn from failure, inculcated and nurtured by its leadership. Throughout, we use the prism of an Adaptive Evaluation to provide a systematic framework for mirroring and understanding Pratham's organic learning processes (as affirmed by its own leadership). Pratham actively engages with the three main pillars of an Adaptive Evaluation, involving understanding systems, theorizing how to effect change, and iterating its designs. While Pratham’s culture will often not be transferable, the systematic analysis of how Pratham learns can provide a framework for other organizations aspiring to replicate Pratham's success as a learning institution.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Innovation, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
212. What Combination of Features Are Associated With Scalable and Sustainable Last-Mile Service Delivery Models? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis
- Author:
- Siddhant Gokale and Ojas
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This study explores the features of successful last-mile service delivery models for the poor. We define success in terms of two main outcomes — the scale of impact and the sustainability of the business model. Through a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of 35 organizations across a variety of sectors, such as agriculture, health, education, finance, energy, and water and sanitation, we arrive at a two-fold conclusion about the most prevalent combination of business model features associated with scale and sustainability. For achieving scale, a combination of four features was sufficient (but not necessary) — a pull product, an asset-light capital investment strategy, a narrow customer base, and a vertically integrated business model. For achieving sustainability, a wide customer base was sufficient (but not necessary). Together, these reveal a tradeoff between sustainability and scaling, especially around customer segments. The QCA is supplemented by an in-depth qualitative case study analysis of three selected organizations to uncover additional factors behind the success of alternate models that deviate from the QCA results. We find that clarity in vision, blending technology with people, evidence-driven decision-making and adaptive learning, and strong value propositions for multiple stakeholders were key characteristics of successful last-mile delivery models with features different from the QCA conclusions.
- Topic:
- Economy, Business, Investment, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
213. A Growth Perspective on Wyoming
- Author:
- Thảo-Nguyên Bùi, Tim Freeman, Farah Kaddah, Lucas Lamby, and Yang Li
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This report sets out to understand if the economy of the State of Wyoming is positioned to grow into the future. To do this, the report begins by investigating the past. To know where the state economy could be headed, and how that direction may be improved, it is critical to understand how the state developed the economic structure and drivers that it has today. Thus, Wyoming’s economic trajectory is explored over the long, medium, and short term. From this investigation, we find that Wyoming faces an overall growth problem, but we also find a high degree of variation in economic engines and growth prospects across the state. The problem that this report identifies is that the composition of economic activities is not positioned to sustain a high quality of life across all parts of the state. “Across all parts of the state” is an essential part of the problem statement for Wyoming. While some local and regional economies in the state are growing and bumping up against identifiable constraints, other local and regional economies are experiencing sustained contractions and will require new sources of growth in order to retain (or expand) population and high quality of life. Since economic dynamics vary significantly across the state, analysis is conducted in as much geographic detail as possible. By combining historical and geographic dimensions of growth, this report aims to inform pathways for sustained and inclusive prosperity across the of Wyoming.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Growth, Telework, and Green Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
214. Facilitating learning and discovery oriented industrial policy in Albania
- Author:
- Matt Andrews and Peter Harrington
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Industrial policy initiatives demand a lot of knowledge from policymakers. Knowledge is often limited, however, especially when policies emerge from top-down technical experts or outsiders with limited contextual experience. Such policies are prone to mistakes. These can, however, be avoided by developing policies through collaborative ‘discovery processes’. Establishing organizations to do ‘discovery’ work is challenging, however, especially when challenges are urgent, resources lacking, and corruption concerns rife. In such settings, it may be more practical and effective to build listening and response capabilities into incumbent policy systems through rapid, temporary discovery processes. This paper provides a case narrative of an experiment with this idea, recounting the story of a problem-driven learning and discovery-oriented approach undertaken to reinvigorate a struggling sector in Albania in 2014.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
215. Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes
- Author:
- Jeffrey Frankel, Yao Hou, and Danxia Xie
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper develops a new econometric framework to estimate and classify exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate dynamics and the interventions by authorities under each of the regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three-regime Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) model to reveal the nonlinear nature of exchange rate dynamics. We further extend our benchmark framework to allow the evolution of exchange rate regimes over time by adopting the minimum description length (MDL) principle, to overcome the challenge of simultaneous two-dimensional inference of nonlinearity in the state dimension and structural breaks in the time dimension. We apply our framework to 26 countries. The results suggest that exchange rate dynamics under different regimes are well captured by our new framework.
- Topic:
- Economy, Econometrics, and Exchange Rates
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
216. Türkiye’s First 100 Years
- Author:
- W. Robert Pearson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- Modern Türkiye (the official spelling of Turkey since 2021) sprang like a phoenix from the ashes in 1923, overcoming daunting odds. Its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, had foolishly joined the war with the Central Powers in 1914 and naively thought its Arab subjects would remain loyal, only to have been utterly defeated and then dismembered. A rebellion led by the empire’s most famous war hero and leader, Kemal Ataturk, overthrew the last sultan, rejected an unjust treaty to divide up the country and repelled the occupying Allies. He established a contemporary republic based on popular will and modern law to begin a new history for the Turkish people. Born from the wreckage of war and national chaos, Türkiye now, one hundred years on, has become a formidable player on the global stage. World War One witnessed four empires – the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman – disappear from history. Of the four, the Turks were the most severely treated by the European victors. Little of Germany and none of the Austro-Hungarian states were occupied. Türkiye was. The country also was originally forecast to become a League of Nations mandate, losing its sovereignty, a punishment not assessed against any other Central Power. Türkiye’s victory at the negotiating table in the early 1920’s over the European Allied Powers and on the battlefield principally against the Greeks, who were encouraged by the British to invade Türkiye to recover territories, was a singular achievement. The final agreement – the Treaty of Lausanne – gave Türkiye its complete independence on October 29, 1923, with Mustafa Kemal as its first president. It was the only such treaty negotiated by a WWI Central Power state with the Allies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Religion, History, Democracy, Economy, Kurds, Ottoman Empire, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
217. Catastrophe: The Global Cost of the Ukraine War
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The war has been a disaster for Ukraine, but also a calamity for the world. This brief article provides a concise overview of the war’s profound global effects, beginning with the combatants’ cost in lives and treasure. Beyond this it assesses the war’s impact on global trade and economy; energy and food price inflation and their effects on poverty, hunger, and mortality; the redirection of humanitarian and official development assistance; the total sum of aid to the Ukrainian war effort, and the estimated cost of postwar reconstruction and recovery. Also examined is the war’s effect on global defense spending. The article also provides copious citations to support further inquiry.
- Topic:
- Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
218. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
- Topic:
- Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
219. Arming the Revolution: Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23
- Author:
- Henry Rome
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Islamic Republic boasts a large and expanding nuclear program, the most capable missile and drone force in the Middle East, and a broad network of proxies that threaten U.S. interests. Nevertheless, scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending. Although the data is publicly available, tabulating it is more difficult than one might assume, and three particular hazards await: (1) conversion of Iranian rials to dollars at unrealistic rates, (2) reliance on spending plans as opposed to actual spending, and (3) undercounting. Thus, any attempt to understand Iran’s military spending must scrupulously avoid such traps. In this Policy Note, Iran expert Henry Rome offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing domestic trends and comparisons with regional rivals. The findings show how spending surged following the 2015 nuclear deal and plummeted following the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018. They also suggest that a new nuclear accord with Washington will likely prompt another increase, demanding a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, Defense Spending, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
220. Sultan’s Landmark Speech to the Majlis Oman: A Window into Oman’s Economic Reforms
- Author:
- Jonathan Campbell-James
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As he approaches the third anniversary of his ascension to the throne in Oman, on November 14 Sultan Haitham addressed the opening of the 8th session of the Majlis Oman, a parliament that combines both the appointed Majlis ad-Dawla and the wholly elected Majlis al-Shura. This was the first occasion at which Sultan Haitham had made such a speech since assuming the throne, a formal stock-take of the progress he has made in implementing his vision for Oman. Unlike, for example, the King’s speech to the combined U.K. Houses of Parliament, where the government of the day writes the speech which the King merely reads, on this occasion the Sultan owned this speech himself[1]. It outlined both what as sovereign he had set out to achieve, and what as prime minister he had delivered. On display when he gave his speech, Haitham’s presentation is calm and understated, authoritative but less effervescent and more managerial than the style of his predecessor Sultan Qaboos. But nonetheless, he sketched out remarkable progress achieved over the last three years.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Oman and Gulf Nations
221. Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations
- Author:
- Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 23, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux. Henneberg is the Institute’s Soref Fellow and author of its new study Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Expectations. Hawthorne is deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Perroux is director of the Tunisia-based North African Policy Initiative. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Reform, Democracy, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
222. Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to visit Cairo on January 29-30, Egypt’s economy has been busy plummeting to new lows. Part of the blame can be laid on the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, which disproportionately affected the country due to its heavy reliance on threatened resources such as wheat and tourism revenue from Russia and Ukraine. Yet the bulk of its struggles can be attributed to Cairo’s broad economic mismanagement under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, which has included everything from currency manipulation to misplaced spending priorities, wasteful megaprojects, and undue state and military control over the economy. Since March 2022, Egypt’s currency has lost half its value and now stands at 30 pounds to the U.S. dollar—a drop spurred by the flight of dollars and the IMF’s requirement to adopt a flexible exchange rate. As a result, official inflation reached nearly 22% in December, fifteen points higher than it was at the end of 2021. Shortages are now frequent, and prices for basic goods have soared by nearly 40%. The rising cost of essential bread in particular will be difficult to maintain much longer. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 95%, with a record $100 billion in loan payments due over the next four years. Egypt’s 2022-23 budget allocates over 50% to debt servicing and loan repayments, and this sky-high figure will only increase further over time because the loans are dollar-denominated.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America
223. The Lebanon Human Rights Report: Punting on Accountability?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When the U.S. State Department issued its annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices last week, the document’s assessment of Lebanon’s track record in 2022 stood out for its significant elisions. Although the comprehensive nature of these reports generally makes them a valuable tool for accountability, their diplomatically sensitive content is sometimes colored by an administration’s perceived exigencies regarding a given bilateral relationship. The fact that Lebanon’s report largely avoids some of the country’s more controversial human rights issues therefore seems more than coincidental. Whatever the case, the omissions are a missed opportunity for facilitating just the type of accountability Lebanon needs to pry itself out of its current morass.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Armed Forces, Economy, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
224. Role Conceptions and Leadership Rivalry in the Middle East: Transforming Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Relations
- Author:
- Muhammed Yakup İnan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Middle East has often been the subject of foreign interventions and the interests of superpowers. The effect of internal dynamics was pushed to the background in regional developments as a result of this situation. It is very important, however, to analyze the Middle East by understanding the power struggles between the regional powers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. This article examines the leadership struggle and role conceptualizations between the regional powers of the Middle East with a focus on the relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It argues that Turkey is not a rival to Saudi Arabia's national role conceptions in the Gulf region, but rather a favorable partner when it comes to Gulf security and economic relations. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia will follow a positive course with mutual normalization steps and Turkey's export-led growth and regional cooperation strategies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Leadership, Economy, Regional Power, and Role Conceptions
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
225. China and Nicaragua’s Deepening Embrace
- Author:
- Scott B. MacDonald
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In October 2023, Nicaragua signed an agreement with China’s CAMC Engineering Company (中工国际工程) for the reconstruction, expansion, and upgrading of the Punta Huete International Airport (Yicai, October 18). The company is a subsidiary of the conglomerate China National Machinery Industry Corporation (国际集团), also known as Sinomach (Sinomach, accessed November 15). Local and Chinese officials are touting the $492 million project as part of China’s Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI), reflecting a deepening of Daniel Ortega’s regime’s ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Global Times, October 18). Closer links between Beijing and Managua demonstrate that China’s economic statecraft remains central to its strategy to further penetrate Latin America and the Caribbean, a region of significant geopolitical importance to the United States. The sustainability of China’s economic statecraft, and BRI in particular, have come into question in recent months due to the country’s domestic economic problems. However, the Nicaraguan airport announcement signals that the PRC remains economically active in the region, and its ambitions have not wavered. This is something of which the remaining handful of countries that officially recognize Taiwan are well aware: Beijing’s attention to regional infrastructure continues, if more selectively than before, but only to those countries who have decided to forgo relations with Taiwan. Beijing is further extending its reach into the strategic underbelly of the United States. For Nicaragua, the restoration of diplomatic ties with China serves the geopolitical needs of President Daniel Ortega in distancing his regime from the United States and softening the blow of sanctions (imposed due to fraudulent elections and gross human rights violations), while providing a source of non-Western funds to finance infrastructure projects.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Central America, and Nicaragua
226. Hong Kong: The Keystone in China’s Economic Statecraft
- Author:
- Sunny Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The recent decision by Hong Kong to join China in banning Japanese seafood took many observers by surprise (Reuters, August 23). At first glance, the ban seemed an overblown reaction to Japan’s handling of nuclear wastewater, which many international bodies have deemed safe and compliant with established procedures. And while it is commonly understood that Hong Kong’s government is politically influenced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), many still believe in its economic autonomy. Considering the significant economic reliance of Japan on Hong Kong for its seafood trade, among other sectors, the ban startled numerous stakeholders (Nikkei Asia, August 25). However, the move is less shocking when Hong Kong is viewed as an integral cog in China’s economic statecraft machine. Traditionally, Western governments lack strategic foresight regarding Hong Kong’s long-term position. Often, this oversight stems from an inadequate comprehension of Hong Kong’s pivotal financial role relative to China, as well as an underestimation of its potential as a node for strategic leverage, both for and against China. China’s rise as a global superpower is inextricably linked to its adept use of economic statecraft, a fusion of economic might and strategic prowess. Its pressure on South Korea to stop the production of Taiwanese military submarines provides a recent example (Reuters, October 16). Hong Kong is a pulsating metropolis at the heart of this strategy. It not only exemplifies China’s ambitions but also acts as a crucial conduit for realizing them. There are two key strands of Hong Kong’s centrality to Beijing: its function as an economic lifeline to the global financial system and its role in the clandestine acquisition of technology and intellectual assets for China from overseas. The US and its allies must focus more on Beijing’s overt and covert leveraging of Hong Kong and think harder about what the city’s function should be in an era of de-risking, geoeconomic competition, and weaponized interdependence.
- Topic:
- Economy, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Statecraft, Regional Politics, and Superpower
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Hong Kong
227. Ten Years On, How is the Belt and Road Initiative Faring in Indonesia?
- Author:
- William Yuen Yee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- “It is not merely talk, but it is about actually building something. From airports to railways, these are industries we can see and touch. This is exactly the sort of courage and real action the world needs right now.” So said Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at the inaugural Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) in 2017 (BRF, May 14, 2017; Jakarta Globe, May 16, 2017). This year marks the tenth anniversary of this ambitious, globe-spanning infrastructure development project. Today, 151 countries and 32 international organizations have joined the initiative, which Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently described as a “global enterprise to build a belt of prosperity and a road to happiness” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China [PRC], January 20). A decade ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the BRI with a series of speeches in Kazakhstan and Indonesia calling for a “Silk Road Economic Belt” and a “Maritime Silk Road,” respectively (Consulate General of the PRC in Toronto, September 7, 2013; China Daily, October 4, 2013). The following year, China announced the creation of a $40 billion Silk Road fund at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Beijing and a $20 billion Maritime Silk Road fund in Indonesia (China Daily, November 9, 2014). From the BRI’s inception, it has been clear that Southeast Asia and its largest economy— Indonesia—are intended to serve as a centerpiece of the megaproject (Global Times, November 16, 2022). Roughly two-thirds of all people of ethnic Chinese ancestry outside of China are in Southeast Asia. [1] The 142-kilometer (88 mile) Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway (HSR) is one of the BRI’s flagship projects (China Brief, December 22, 2022). Indonesia also hosts nearly half of the eight overseas industrial parks that China has established across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states: the China-Indonesia Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, the China-Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the China-Indonesia JuLong Agricultural Industry Cooperation Zone (China Development Institute, June 26, 2019). While Beijing has pulled back its overseas BRI lending—and Xi has exhibited some notable reticence toward hosting a third Belt and Road Forum—Indonesia challenges the broader narrative that the BRI is somehow fading away (Green Finance & Development Center, July 24, 2022). In the world’s fourth-most populous country, Chinese investment has continued apace, and both governments continue to champion the BRI’s ability to deliver “mutual benefit” and “win-win results.” Still, understanding Indonesia’s experience with the BRI requires closer examination of the history behind China-Indonesia infrastructure cooperation, major projects beyond the oft-discussed Jakarta-Bandung HSR and their impacts on the Indonesian public, and the extent of economic engagement between Jakarta and Beijing.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
228. Venezuela: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela and Bolivarian Republic of
229. Russia: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
230. Russia: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
231. Russia: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
232. Russia: Country fact sheet
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, Background, and Fact sheet
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
233. Russia: Country forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, 5-year summary, and Key indicators
- Political Geography:
- Russian Federation
234. Venezuela: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela and Bolivarian Republic of
235. Venezuela: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela and Bolivarian Republic of
236. Vietnam: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
237. Vietnam: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
238. Tanzania: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Tanzania and United Republic of
239. Vietnam: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
240. Vietnam: Country fact sheet
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, Background, and Fact sheet
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
241. Vietnam: Country forecast summary
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Economy, 5-year summary, and Key indicators
- Political Geography:
- Viet Nam
242. Tanzania: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Tanzania and United Republic of
243. Tanzania: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- Tanzania and United Republic of
244. Virgin Islands (British): Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Virgin Islands and British
245. United Kingdom: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- UK
246. United Kingdom: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- UK
247. United Kingdom: Economic structure
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic structure, Charts and tables, and Monthly trends charts
- Political Geography:
- UK
248. Bolivia: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Bolivia and Plurinational State of
249. Taiwan: Country outlook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economy, Outlook, Forecast, and Overview
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Province of China
250. Bolivia: Basic data
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Summary, Basic Data, Economy, and Background
- Political Geography:
- Bolivia and Plurinational State of