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1702. Touching the Void: Economic Collapse and Popular Protest in the Levant
- Author:
- Peter Bartu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of 2019, quasi-revolutionary popular protests forced the resigna- tion of two prime ministers in Lebanon and Iraq. With these protests came the opportunity for political and economic reforms that were as wide-ranging as those called for during the 2011 Arab uprisings. The challenge was to steer the public energy of city squares into policies that would affect genuine institutional change and improve the economies of both states. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price crash have had calamitous consequences for Iraq and Lebanon’s rank and file. Lebanon faces hyperinflation, increasing food insecurity, and the collapse of its middle class. Meanwhile, Iraq’s government cannot meet its monthly payroll, has not fostered an active private sector, and has failed to create robust financial institutions—Iraq’s banking sector has been described as a “monetary dystopia.”1 Although economic prospects look bleak in the Levant, there is still a way out of this. It is time to bring in forensic auditors, apply cur- rency controls, and consider a regional approach to recovery. Those who benefit from the status quo will fiercely resist reform, but they can be circumvented by taking reform plans directly to the people by way of referendum. The future lies in going back to those marching in the squares.
- Topic:
- Economy, Protests, Inflation, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon
1703. China Maritime Report No. 10: PLAN Force Structure Projection Concept, A Methodology for Looking Down Range
- Author:
- Christopher P. Carlson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Force structure projections of an adversary’s potential order of battle are an essential input into the strategic planning process. Currently, the majority of predictions regarding China’s future naval buildup are based on a simple extrapolation of the impressive historical ship construction rate and shipyard capacity, without acknowledging that the political and economic situation in China has changed dramatically.
- Topic:
- Politics, Armed Forces, Navy, Economy, Maritime, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1704. Arab Art in Focus: The Future of Cultural Festivals
- Author:
- Huda Kanoo, Ernesto Ottone Ramirez, Raed Asfour, Eckhard Thiemann, and Neda Ulaby
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Cultural festivals play an important role in expanding and enriching the communities and cities that host them, providing platforms for artists, and contributing to economies. But given the enduring impact of Covid-19 in the Middle East and globally, festivals are having to rethink their models and innovate to find new ways to reach audiences while remaining engaging and relevant. How might these new challenges impact broader cultural production, audience engagement and more, in a region where platforms and opportunities for the performing arts are already so limited? Join leading festival directors and thought leaders for a discussion about the challenges and opportunities faced by cultural festivals in this new environment. Speakers include H.E. Huda Kanoo, founder of the Abu Dhabi Festival, Ernesto Ottone Ramirez, assistant director-general for culture at UNESCO, Raed Asfour, director of the Al Balad Music Festival, Eckhard Thiemann, CEO and artistic director of the Shubbak festival. Moderated by NPR culture reporter Neda Ulaby.
- Topic:
- Arts, Culture, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa
1705. State-of-Play for Middle East Cybersecurity Leaders
- Author:
- Ron Peeters, Micah Loudermilk, Chris Kubecka, and Maya Horowitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The cyber threat landscape and economic composition of the Middle East are unique. Operational technology threats are a critical risk in the region, both because of its heavily resource-based economies and its high reliance on electric and water infrastructure. This panel will explore the unique components of the cyber security landscape in the Middle East, and seek to determine the best practices for operational cyber security professionals working in the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to welcome a group of industry experts to discuss cyber security challenges, opportunities, and courses of action facing companies in the Middle East. This panel is sponsored by Synack, a leading cyber security company who combines the world's most skilled and trusted ethical hackers with AI-enabled technology to create a scalable, effective security solution. What is the cyber threat environment like in the Middle East today? What types of threat actors and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) are most common? How does the environment differ from other regions of the world?
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
1706. The Growth of the “Camo Economy” and the Commercialization of the Post-9/11 Wars
- Author:
- Heidi Peltier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- Since September 11, 2001, United States military spending has grown rapidly, as has the portion of that spending that pays for military contractors. These contracting companies engineer and manufacture equipment, build and repair infrastructure around the world, provide services like cafeterias and other facilities support, and even replace troops in many war zones. In 2019, the Pentagon spent $370 billion on contracting – more than half the total defense-related discretionary spending, $676 billion, and a whopping 164% higher than its spending on contractors in 2001. Over nearly two decades, government officials, private companies, and conservative think tanks have sold the idea that military contractors are a cost reducer, yet in reality, the growth in military contracting—or what I call the “Camo Economy”—has actually increased the overall cost of this country’s military operations. It’s a Camo Economy because the U.S. government has used the commercialization (often mislabeled “privatization”) of the military as camouflage, concealing the true financial and human costs of America’s post-9/11 wars. Regarding human costs, in 2019, there were 53,000 U.S. contractors compared to 35,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East. Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, an estimated 8,000 U.S. contractors have died, in addition to around 7,000 U.S. troops. America’s post-9/11 wars, which the Costs of War project defines as U.S.-led military operations and other government programs around the world that have grown out of President George W. Bush's "Global War on Terror" and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, have cost U.S. taxpayers over $6.4 trillion. Defense spending now accounts for more than half of all discretionary spending, a category that also includes education, transportation, and healthcare – virtually everything the government does other than Medicare and Social Security. Most of these inflated costs are due to payments to overly expensive military contractors.
- Topic:
- War, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Economy, and Commercialization
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
1707. Making U.S. Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class
- Author:
- Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, Rozlyn Engel, David Gordon, Jennifer Harris, Douglas Lute, Daniel M. Price, Christopher Smart, Jake Sullivan, Ashley J. Tellis, and Tom Wyler
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- If there ever was a truism among the U.S. foreign policy community—across parties, administrations, and ideologies—it is that the United States must be strong at home to be strong abroad. Hawks and doves and isolationists and neoconservatives alike all agree that a critical pillar of U.S. power lies in its middle class—its dynamism, its productivity, its political and economic participation, and, most importantly, its magnetic promise of progress and possibility to the rest of the world. And yet, after three decades of U.S. primacy on the world stage, America’s middle class finds itself in a precarious state. The economic challenges presented by globalization, technological change, financial imbalances, and fiscal strains have gone largely unmet. And that was before the novel coronavirus plunged the country into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, exposed and exacerbated deep inequities across American society, led long-simmering tensions over racial injustice to boil over, and launched a level of societal unrest that the United States has not seen since the height of the civil rights movement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economy, Class, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1708. Regaining U.S. Global Leadership on Anticorruption
- Author:
- Abigail Bellows
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The stakes for the United States to escalate the fight against corruption have never been higher. U.S. security, economic, and political interests demand a greater focus on countering corruption internationally. The next administration could substantially increase U.S. impact on anticorruption through taking the following measures: Defending against the weaponization of corruption; Providing politically responsive anticorruption assistance; Mainstreaming anticorruption; Enabling U.S. leadership.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Leadership, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1709. The Volatile Tunisia-Libya Border: Between Tunisia’s Security Policy and Libya’s Militia Factions
- Author:
- Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Along the border between Tunisia and Libya, informal trade agreements led to a tight-knit border economy. But political changes in both Libya and Tunisia have fundamentally altered the economic and security landscape. The 2010–2011 uprisings disrupted a long-standing informal arrangement governing border trade between Tunisia and Libya. Over the following decade, as Libya disintegrated into mutually hostile fiefdoms, Tunisia maintained its unity, transitioned from authoritarian to democratic rule, and increasingly shunned official dealings with competing Libyan power centers. As such, grassroots cross-border agreements initiated by and between nonstate actors became the norm, albeit with the acquiescence of the Tunisian state. Yet these agreements have failed to constitute a sustainable mechanism for the trade that Tunisia’s eastern borderlands need for survival.
- Topic:
- Security, Economy, Borders, Trade, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
1710. Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves
- Author:
- Dalia Ghanem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority. In Algeria, state formation remains an evolving process, as evidenced by the situation in the country’s northeastern border regions. With Algerian officials in these areas permitting smuggling of petrol and certain other commodities over the border with Tunisia and smugglers weeding out security threats even as they go about their illicit trade, the two ostensibly adversarial parties complement each other. This unusual relationship furthers the intrusion of the state into citizens’ livelihoods even as it manipulates state authority.
- Topic:
- Economy, Borders, and Smuggling
- Political Geography:
- Algeria, North Africa, and Tunisia
1711. Two Paths to Dominance: Military Businesses in Turkey and Egypt
- Author:
- Zeinab Abul-Magd, İsmet Akça, and Shana Marshall
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egyptian and Turkish military businesses have used their institutional privileges to dominate their respective economies, but they have key differences. Turkey’s military businesses are centrally managed while Egypt’s use multiple complex conglomerates. In recent years, Turkish and Egyptian military institutions have followed divergent paths in their respective states. After many decades of full or partial control over the government, the Turkish military today is largely marginalized in politics. By contrast, after periods of exclusion from power, the Egyptian military is now in full control of the state. Despite these differences, both military institutions are powerful economic actors within their states. They have developed extensive civilian economic enterprises over the decades, dominating important sectors by capitalizing on their political influence, legal and regulatory privileges unique to their enterprises, and opportunities provided by market liberalization.
- Topic:
- Government, Economy, Business, and Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt
1712. COVID-19 Crisis: Timely Reminder for Climate Change
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 outbreak disrupted our daily lives and impacted national economies. Amidst the virus turmoil, our natural surroundings have benefited from the slowdown. The global community needs to make a concerted effort to rethink our approach to economic growth to avert a climate crisis.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1713. Pandemic Fatigue: Re-Examining Re-Opening’s Logic
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Many economies have already started to re-open in spite of growing COVID-19 active cases, but it may be for the wrong reasons, and some may be premature. Analysing the healthcare and fiscal capacity of countries provides insights on framing the logic of re-opening.
- Topic:
- Health, Economy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1714. Israel and the European Union: Enemies, A Love Story
- Author:
- David Walzer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Israel and the European Union (EU) have built a special, strategic relationship over decades, since the 1960s. Following centuries of war, two world wars, tens of millions dead and destruction across the continent, the EU can be declared as the most successful expression of Europeans’ aspiration for peace and prosperity. With a population of 450 million, the EU is not only Israel’s biggest trade partner, it is also the biggest and most generous aid donor to the Palestinian Authority (PA), without which Israel would be forced to allocate extensive budgetary resources for the PA’s preservation and its commitments. Moreover, a large part of the Jewish people in Israel and the Diaspora has its roots in Europe. Many Israelis aspire to the continent’s standards of moral and cultural values and to its political systems. At the same time, many in Europe see Israel and the Israelis as members of the European family. Agreements on economic, trade, science, and other matters of vital value to Israel have been signed over the years within the framework of the special relationship that has developed with the EU.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
1715. Israel and the Environment in the Mediterranean Basin
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin and the challenges and opportunities which it presents Israel. It is based on the main points raised at the fifth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held at the IDC School of Sustainability in Herzliya on February 13, 2020 at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper highlights the vulnerability of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin to the climate change crisis, the key challenges it poses to different aspects of life in the region, as well as the opportunities for Israel and for regional cooperation in tackling it. The paper sums up the discussions and presentations at the meeting and does not reflect agreement among all participants.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean
1716. Israel and the Mediterranean Basin Amid the Coronavirus Crisis
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on the impact of the coronavirus on Israel’s relations with the Mediterranean Basin. It is based on the main points raised at the sixth meeting of the research and policy group on “Israel in the Mediterranean” held on May 14, 2020 at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, the Hebrew University’s Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The paper highlights the key insights emerging from the Eastern Mediterranean’s handling of the coronavirus epidemic, including the importance of regional cooperation for Israel’s national resilience, the strengthening of Israel’s alliance with Greece and Cyprus, the economic importance of the Mediterranean for Israel, the energy crisis and its impact, and Israel’s ties with Arab states. The paper does not reflect agreement among all the meeting participants.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Economy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean
1717. The Differences between the EU’s Differentiation Policy and the BDS Movement
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu and Shira Hirsch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The differentiation policy led by the European Union (EU) distinguishes between the sovereign State of Israel within the 1967 borders and the occupied territories. The BDS Movement calls for what its initials stand for – boycott, sanctions and divestment – to be inflicted upon the whole State of Israel. Although they differ in essence, public discourse in Israel often confuses the two – whether unintentionally, stemming from ignorance, or intentionally because of certain political views. This paper aims to draw a clear distinction between the two policies in order to enable a more nuanced, less impassioned and more conducive dialogue in Israel and with the EU, along with an uncompromising fight against the BDS movement. The EU’s differentiation policy seeks to maintain trade and cooperation with the State of Israel within its 1967 borders, in adherence to international law and Europe’s consumer protection laws – unlike the BDS movement that seeks to boycott and sanction the entire State of Israel. Recognizing the value of EU-Israel relationship, the EU's differentiation policy aims to incentivize Israel to resume negotiations with the Palestinians. The BDS movement, on the other hand, sets goals (such as revoking the right of return and abrogating the Law of Return) that if fully achieved would mean Israel’s end as a Jewish state. The differentiation policy includes an element of normative condemnation but not delegitimization of the State of Israel as a whole, as espoused by the BDS movement. Whereas the differentiation policy implements existing international law, the BDS movement aspires to change the international perception of Israel even within its 1967 borders. Currently, the economic implications of both the differentiation policy and the BDS movement are negligible. However, in the long term, the threat posed by the BDS activities is greater than that of the differentiation policy, since the BDS is not limited to the settlements. The UN recently issued a list of companies operating in the settlements, which could serve in the future to boycott the settlements and damage major companies that play a significant role in Israel’s economy. The EU does not see any connection between its differentiation policy and the BDS movement, to which some European states oppose.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Occupation, Borders, and BDS
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
1718. The Role of Economy in US Efforts to Promote Israeli-Arab Peacemaking
- Author:
- Galia Press-Barnathan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Trump Peace Plan follows a familiar American pattern of using economic tools to promote regional peace in the Middle East. This paper puts the recent plan in its appropriate context. More specifically, earlier American strategies of economic peacemaking built on three intellectual approaches: The notion of “commercial peace”, which promises peace by way of economic interdependence; the notion of “capitalist peace”, which focuses on the central and primary role of building market economies within individual states in the region; and the notion of “economic statecraft”, which focuses on the direct use of economic carrots and sticks to push regional actors to make certain policy concessions. The paper explores how these policies have played out over time in US policy in the Middle East, and points to the limits of using economic statecraft to coerce actors into peace.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economy, Regional Integration, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
1719. The rise and fall of import substitution
- Author:
- Douglas A. Irwin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- n the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution—policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods—was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, however, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of such a policy, even among its proponents. This paper traces the rise and fall of import substitution as a development idea. Perhaps surprisingly, early advocates of import substitution were quite cautious in their support for the policy and were also among the first to question it based on evidence derived from country experiences.
- Topic:
- Economy, Trade Policy, Protectionism, and Imports
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
1720. Harry Johnson's "case for flexible exchange rates"—50 years later
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Fifty years ago, Harry G. Johnson published "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, 1969," its title echoing Milton Friedman’s classic essay of 1953. Though somewhat overlooked today, Johnson’s reprise was an important element in the late 1960s debate over the future of the international monetary system. In this Working Paper, Obstfeld lays out the historical context in which Johnson’s “Case” was written and read and then examines Johnson’s main points and sees how they stand up to nearly five decades of experience with floating exchange rates since the end of the Bretton Woods system. He also reviews the most recent academic critiques of exchange rate flexibility and asks how fatal they are to Johnson’s basic argument. He concludes that the essential case for exchange rate flexibility still stands strong.
- Topic:
- History, Monetary Policy, Economy, Central Bank, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1721. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine’s Economy
- Author:
- Daniel Szeligowski
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Ukrainian economy will face a recession in 2020, the scale of which will depend on the fluid pandemic situation at home and abroad. Macro-financial assistance from the IMF and the EU will be crucial to stabilise the economy. To begin a rapid economic recovery, Ukraine needs structural reforms, but implementation of them is unlikely.
- Topic:
- Reform, Finance, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Eastern Europe
1722. The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy and International Standing
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Despite the government’s restrictive preventive measures, India has emerged as one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, and it has yet to reach the peak of infections. The pandemic has ignited the most serious economic crisis in the country’s history, worsened India’s investment attractiveness, and constrained resources that would otherwise help it pursue a greater international role. The economic crisis also undermines the country’s international image, boosted by the quick and decisive response to the pandemic in its initial phase. At the same time, the economic problems and the continued fight against the pandemic will encourage the authorities to deepen cooperation with the EU in public health, the economy, and security.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
1723. Surveillance in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Surveillance of society is one of the main tools of power in China. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the government an excuse to intensify oversight, including through the solutions previously used mainly against Uighurs in Xinjiang. The effectiveness of surveillance is important to the Chinese authorities because of possible unrest arising from economic problems connected with COVID-19. The importance of surveillance in managing the virus in China has also led to demand in democratic countries to introduce similar practices.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Economy, Surveillance, COVID-19, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1724. Greece’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy
- Author:
- Maciej Pawłowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Greece aims to strengthen its political and economic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, which was weakened after the economic crisis of 2008–2013. Among the ways to regain this stature are through access to natural resources and participation in regional alliances. The Greeks perceive Turkey as the main threat to achieving these goals. It is in the EU’s interest to foster better relations between the two countries and to find compromise in disputes between them.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Alliance, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean
1725. Economic Challenges for Belarus
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Overdependence on cheap Russian energy resources, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lack of reform are the biggest challenges that could lead to the collapse of the Belarusian economy. Russia may use economic problems to make Belarus more dependent on it. Poland, other EU countries and the U.S. can support the Belarusian authorities in diversifying sources of crude oil supplies, negotiations on joining the World Trade Organisation, and possible efforts to obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Poland, Belarus, and United States of America
1726. Putting A Spoke In The Wheel: Russian Efforts To Weaken U.S.-led Alliance Structures In Northeast Asia
- Author:
- James D. J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Russia is widely accused of employing a range of instruments—both overt and covert—to undermine Western unity. However, to what extent is Russia engaged in comparable activities to weaken the South Korean and Japanese alliances with the United States? This paper answers this question by assessing Moscow’s actions in the domains of diplomacy, information, the military, and the economy. It finds that Russia is indeed aiming to encourage Seoul and Tokyo to distance themselves from Washington and from each other. In particular, Moscow is committed to deterring U.S. allies from facilitating the deployment of additional units of U.S. missile defense systems within the region. Across the four domains, it is only in the economic field that Russia is found to lack leverage. Overall, Moscow has achieved several tactical victories, but has yet to seriously damage U.S.-led alliance structures within the region. All the same, Seoul and Tokyo must remain watchful of Moscow’s activities, especially since there are signs of increased cooperation between Russia and China in exploiting wedge issues between the United States and its allies, thereby potentially combining China’s economic weight with Russia’s skills in influence operations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and United States of America
1727. Blue Economies of the Indian Ocean Region: Japan’s Role in Transition to Sustainable Development and Growth
- Author:
- Monika Chansoria
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The Blue Economy concept was first articulated in 2012 by the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) at the 2012 Rio+20 Summit on Sustainable Development. This novel idea was coupled with a concurrent approach that sought to transform traditional ocean economies into an ecosystem harnessing oceanic resources for better conservation of the marine environment. Ever since, the Blue Economy concept and its implementation has remained an evolving one. The broad consensus is that diminishing land resources have induced greater pressure on ocean assets to feed faster growth. At the same time, realization of the dangers of unsustainable approaches is equally compelling. The oceans remain the foremost climate stabilizers as they directly absorb heat and recycle an overwhelming share of greenhouse gases. Rising sea levels are causing submergence of valuable land, and extreme weather conditions and rising temperatures will eventually disrupt the water cycle, and hurt agriculture, fisheries and the rich marine biodiversity. The need to find mitigating solutions ensuring that future economic growth and development be more sustainable remains more pronounced than ever. As per few estimates, in many sectors, the ocean-based productivity will exceed the corresponding land-based production both in terms of value and employment generation by 2030. However, these benefits would likely accrue only in case of the oceans remaining healthy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economy, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Indian Ocean
1728. The Impacts of the New Coronavirus Pandemic on the Global Economy: A Nontechnical Summary
- Author:
- Kensuke Yanagida
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of April 5, 2020, there are 177 countries/regions confirming cases of new coronavirus infections (COVID-19), making this an unprecedented pandemic. With the number of infected people increasing and medical systems under severe pressure, measures such as lockdowns and border restrictions have been tightly imposed in most countries/regions. As a result, economic activities in both production and consumption have been temporarily halted. Indeed, the pandemic is creating a situation that is simultaneously freezing the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the impact of the Corona Shock on the global economy could be "far worse" than that of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (also known as the Lehman Shock). How much impact will the unprecedented pandemic have on the global economy? In this paper, the author will quantitatively analyze the impact of the Corona Shock using an applied general equilibrium model (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)). The estimation results show that the longer the COVID-19 outbreak continues and the greater the spread of infections, the greater the negative impact on the global economy. The impact is forecast to be at or even above the level of the Lehman Shock.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1729. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China (Continued)
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The author released a short paper in early March 2020 on China's reaction to the spread of novel coronavirus infections, but circumstances have since progressed to a new stage. A pandemic of historic proportions has broken out, and the spread of infections has been relentless even in the Western countries that initially looked upon China coolly. The numbers of infections and deaths in the US in particular have significantly surpassed those in China, making the US the most infected country in the world. At the same time, China continues to contain the spread of infections, and appears to be moving toward resuming economic activities. Nevertheless, there are numerous issues that still need to be addressed. This paper will briefly examine the novel coronavirus situation in China since March.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
1730. On the Origins of Entrepreneurial Alertness: Did Bauer and Yamey Precede Kirzner?
- Author:
- J. Robert Subrick
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- After the Second World War, the entrepreneur virtually disappeared from economic analysis (Baumol 1968). This neglect followed from the emerging models of general equilibrium that formed one aspect of the core of economic theory. By assumption, the Walrasian auctioneer knew the appropriate prices necessary to equate quantity supplied with quantity demanded in each market. In addition, the auctioneer knew when and by how much to adjust prices when an exogenous factor changed such as income or production technology. Trade only occurred at equilibrium prices so that markets cleared. No market participant chose or changed prices; it occurred exogenously. Kenneth Arrow recognized the lack of real world mechanisms to determine and adjust prices in competitive markets. He identified a logical gap in the perfectly competitive model. He wrote that “there is no place for a rational decision with respect to prices as there is with respect to quantities” (Arrow 1959: 42). Prices exist independent of consumer and firm behavior. A complete model would have to provide a solution to the conundrum.
- Topic:
- Markets, History, Entrepreneurship, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1731. The American News Media’s Volatile Perspectives on China
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the decades since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, wild swings have occurred in the way that American media outlets view that country. At most times, a herd mentality is evident, as a large percentage of news stories portray China in one particular fashion, although there always are some dissenters from the dominant narrative. The nature of that narrative sometimes shifts rapidly and dramatically, however. During some periods, the prevailing perspective has been extremely hostile, with nearly all accounts seeing the PRC as a monstrous oppressor domestically and an existential security threat to the United States. That was the case for more than two decades following the communist revolution, until Richard Nixon’s administration suddenly altered U.S. policy in 1971–1972, and Washington no longer treated the PRC as a rogue state.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Media, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1732. Immigrants Do Not Negatively Affect the Economic Institutions of American States
- Author:
- Alex Nowrasteh and Andrew C. Forrester
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Freer immigration could potentially lead to trillions of dollars in additional annual global output. However, the movement of many more immigrants could produce negative externalities that swamp the benefits, particularly if immigrants undermine productivity in their new countries by bringing with them the institutions or cultures that are responsible for low productivity in their home countries. We examine this by seeing how immigrants affect state budgets — a proxy for the quality of economic institutions — between 1970 and 2010 in the United States. We find that larger immigrant shares of the population produce large reductions in the growth of real per capita tax revenue and outlays in the short run that moderate to smaller longer‐term growth declines in both.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Economy, Immigrants, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1733. The Costs of Covid: Australia’s Economic Prospects in a Wounded World
- Author:
- John Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite Victoria’s second wave of infection, Australia’s economic recovery from the coronavirus is underway. The bitter aftermath includes high and rising unemployment, vastly increased government debt, and a markedly less congenial global economy. Though formidable, the fiscal challenge is well within Australia’s means, especially if the Reserve Bank remains willing to acquire and hold Australian government debt. It may need to do so anyway to suppress an unwelcome appreciation of the Australian dollar in a world where major central banks are committed to low long term interest rates. Australia’s increasing integration into the East Asia economic community offsets the drag from the major advanced economies, but the US–China quarrel and the dislocation of global trading and investment relationships it threatens heightens the tension between Australia’s economic and security choices.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Fiscal Policy, Unemployment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
1734. Managing US-China Rivalry in the Arctic: Small states can be players in great power competition
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Many fear that strategic competition between the US and China threatens longstanding regional cooperation and stability in the Arctic. But if they recognise their own political and economic significance and work collectively, the Nordic states and Canada can still play an instrumental role in steering the region’s future away from confrontation. Recommendations: Recognise how US–China strategic competition represents a false binary for policy choices in the Arctic. Understand how economic connectivity provides room for manoeuvre against big power pressure. Encourage participation of non-Arctic states with similar economic and political norms on natural resource and infrastructure development.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Oil, Power Politics, Gas, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
1735. Chinese influence in the Baltic? Unconvincing, yet lacking an alternative
- Author:
- Jessica Larsen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Brussels is waking up to an assertive Beijing that is seeking influence in EU member states by promising massive foreign investments. In the Baltic states, however, Chinese business is not the problem. An explainer. KEY FINDINGS: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania experience gaps in transportation, energy and digitalisation – Chinese core expertise – and China is offering them its business. However, China is sending mixed signals: apart from economic overtures, it is interfering in domestic politics and cooperating militarily with Baltic arch-enemy Russia – alienating Baltic democracies. As EU attention is tilting ‘outwards’ to China, Denmark and the EU should use this moment to direct attention ‘inwards’ by being the ones delivering on Baltic states’ needs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, Investment, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States
1736. China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads
- Author:
- David B. Sandalow
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- China is the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases, by far. In 2019, Chinese emissions were greater than emissions from the United States, the European Union, and Japan combined. There is no solution to climate change without China. China’s response to climate change is a study in contrasts. China leads the world in solar power, wind power, and electric vehicle deployment, but also in coal consumption. The Chinese government has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious energy efficiency and forest conservation policies, but is financing a significant expansion of coal-fired power plant capacity at home and abroad. China’s leaders are strongly committed to the Paris Agreement, but appear to attach less priority to climate change than in years past. This Issue Paper explores these contrasts. It does so at an important time in Chinese climate change policy. During the next 18 months, the Chinese government will spend heavily on economic stimulus measures, release its 14th Five-Year Plan (for 2021–2025), and develop short- and long-term climate action plans (known as its “updated nationally-determined contributions” and “mid-century strategy” in the terminology of the global U.N. climate process). Decisions by the Chinese government will reverberate globally, including in the United States. A Biden administration’s ambition in addressing climate change would be reinforced by ambition in China. This Issue Paper provides an up-to-date snapshot of China’s climate policies, drawing on data from 2019 and the beginning of 2020 (during the height of the COVID-19 economic lockdown), as well as recent remarks by Chinese leaders. It starts by examining Chinese emissions of heat-trapping gases. It then discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the main tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. The Issue Paper concludes with a discussion of processes that will shape Chinese climate change policy in the years ahead.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Economy, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
1737. Socio-Economic Challenges and the Impact of Regional Dynamics on Jordan: Employment, Social Cohesion, and International Cooperation – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe
- Author:
- Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Jordan’s stability is severely challenged by socio-economic hardship. The country is plagued by high un-employment rates, an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of around 94 percent, corruption, and dismal social ser-vices. The fight against terrorism has also resulted in further infringement of rights such as freedom of expression. These grievances have led to a series of protests and strikes in the past two years; the latest strike by teachers has had a far-reaching impact on the public.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Employment, Economy, Freedom of Expression, Protests, Unemployment, and Social Cohesion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Jordan
1738. How Leaders Can Stop Corona from Undermining the EU: The Health and Economic Crises Require Coordinated Handling
- Author:
- Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Political stability, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1739. Time for a Corona Fund: How a Coalition of Willing Member States Can Shore Up the EU Economy
- Author:
- Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- While the ECB has already taken bold steps, the EU member states need to support its efforts by committing to underwrite together some of the fiscal costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The best option would be to launch a Corona Fund with the power to mobilize 1 trillion EUR—support for such a fund need not be unanimous.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1740. Pushing the EU to a Hamiltonian Moment: Germany’s Court Ruling and the Need to Build a Fiscal Capacity Force a Constitutional Debate
- Author:
- Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The recent ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the ECB was an economic and political bombshell. The deep controversy that resulted – within Germany and on a European scale – illustrates that the ambiguity surrounding the euro area’s legal order and architecture may have reached its limit. The ruling, combined with the plan to build a fiscal capacity to address the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis, presents the EU with an important opportunity to complete and solidify the euro area.
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
1741. The EU’s Role in Addressing Lebanon’s Multiple Crises
- Author:
- Shahin Vallée
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Beirut Port blast (BPB) has revealed the fundamental failure of the Lebanese political system, but deep democratic reforms will take time and are fraught with risks. Given the US withdrawal and the extreme tensions in the region, the EU has a critical role to play in addressing the short-term humanitarian crisis, responding to the economic and financial situation, and providing a forum for civil society empowerment. If it fails to do so, the price is further geopolitical destabilization.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, European Union, Geopolitics, Finance, Economy, Political stability, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon
1742. The China Trade Challenge: Phase II
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- China’s fast-paced economic rise and defiance of globally accepted market rules—along with the growing and yet unknown economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19)—are driving the next phase of US-China trade negations to the top of the nation’s post-election agenda. While the Phase I US-China trade deal has eased tension, it also set the stage for discussions on other important economic disputes, including forced technology transfer, cyber theft of intellectual property (IP), industrial policies, state subsidies, and new technology, according to a new Solutions Brief, The China Trade Challenge: Phase II, by the Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED).
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, Global Political Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1743. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q3 Update
- Author:
- Hiba Itani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board estimates the Gulf region’s GDP growth to fall at -5.7 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The slight improvement in oil prices in Q3 along with the easing of production cuts as of August will give oil GDP a small boost. As worries of a possible second wave of coronavirus in Q4 mount, consumer demand will weaken further, netting the rise in oil GDP.
- Topic:
- Oil, GDP, Economy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
1744. C-Suite Challenge™ 2020: Japan Edition
- Author:
- Bart van Ark, Rebecca L. Ray, Charles Mitchell, and Ilaria Maselli
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Japanese regional edition of this year’s C-Suite Challenge™ survey focuses on internal and external stress points faced by businesses, the objectives, barriers and benefits of successful collaboration initiatives, and the importance of data privacy and cyber security. Emphasis is also given on the business strategies Japanese CEOs focus on in order to enhance productivity growth. The shifting priorities between now and in the future reveals CEO awareness to improve productivity as technology evolves and customer demands change.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Privacy, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
1745. CEOs in Europe: Business Conditions, the COVID-19 Crisis, and Beyond
- Author:
- Ilaria Maselli and Bart van Ark
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board and ERT have established a collaboration to create a new measure of CEO Confidence for Europe. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ for Europe by ERT for the first half of 2020 is 34 (on a scale from 0 to 100). The report examines the survey results including CEO views about business and economic conditions now, conditions in six months, and the prospects for their own industry. The negative sentiment among business leaders resulted from the dramatic impact of the COVID-19 crisis which delivered a severe supply shock to the economy in Europe and around the world.
- Topic:
- Economy, Business, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1746. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q1 Update
- Author:
- Hiba Itani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Gulf countries face a somber outlook, with the GDP of the region expected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 compared to 2019. The Gulf countries whose economies remain highly dependent on hydrocarbon are ahead of “perfect storm” like scenario: a humanitarian crisis, that morphed into a global demand shock and pushed oil prices into a free-fall. A historical oil production cut agreement barely managed to improve prices.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
1747. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19
- Author:
- Christopher A. McNally
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1748. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges
- Author:
- Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Asia-Pacific
1749. Women, Leadership, and Asian Economic Performance
- Author:
- Soyoung Han and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In an era of slowing economic growth, Asian countries face an imperative to boost productivity. One possible source of economic revitalization would be to make better use of women in the labor force. Although female representation in corporate leadership has been rising gradually over time, as of 2017, women comprised only 16 percent of executive officers and 11 percent of board members in publicly listed firms in Asia. Research shows that Asian firms with female executive officers and board members perform better in terms of net profit margin and return on assets than firms that lack females in leadership positions. Public policy can improve this gender gap. For one thing, countries that produce large numbers of female college graduates in fields such as law, business, or economics tend to generate more female corporate executives.
- Topic:
- Women, Leadership, Economy, Business, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
1750. Has U.S. Government Angst over the China Danger Diminished?
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The so-called “truce” in the trade war with the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade agreement on January 15 comes amid indicators that the intense U.S. government consensus pushback against a wide range of perceived challenges posed by China may be subsiding.
- Topic:
- Government, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trade Wars
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1751. New Zealand Picks up on the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- David Scott
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Traditionally, New Zealand’s strategic focus has been on Australia and the South Pacific. As recently as 18 October, 2018, Ben King, New Zealand’s Deputy Secretary for Americas and Asia said that “the term Indo‑Pacific may not resonate in New Zealand yet.” And this despite a July 2018 Strategic Defence Policy Statement that already pinpointed New Zealand’s “Indo-Pacific partners reinforcing the rules based order” as being Australia, India, Japan and the United States. It is worth noting that the Strategic Defence Policy Statement gave lengthy details on the threat posed by China; in its Maritime Silk Road push into the Indian Ocean, its militarization of the South China Sea, and its push into the Pacific islands. Events from August 2019 to February 2020 reinforce that New Zealand is seeking out “Indo-Pacific” cooperation with these four particular “partners” (Japan, United States, India, Australia) over shared concerns about China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
1752. The Strategic Imperatives of Modi's Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative
- Author:
- Jagannath P. Panda
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The concepts of ‘strategic autonomy’ and ‘inclusiveness’ have been core to India’s Indo-Pacific policies. Without taking a defined position on the contested power politics in the Indo-Pacific, India has largely maintained cordial relations with most countries and stakeholders in the region. As a corollary to this, the rubric of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) advances India’s maritime diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, reflecting India’s desire to manage maritime security and governance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s proposition to establish the Indo-Pacific Ocean Initiative (IPOI) at the 14th East Asia Summit (EAS) on November 4, 2019, primarily draws on this assertion.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Narendra Modi
- Political Geography:
- India and Indo-Pacific
1753. Mongolia's Response to Increasing U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry in Asia
- Author:
- Alicia Campi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr Alicia Campi, President of the Mongolia Society, explains that “The [“Third Neighbor”] policy was reinterpreted in content and meaning to include cultural and economic partners as diverse as India, Brazil, Kuwait, Turkey, Vietnam, and Iran. With increased superpower rivalry in its region, Mongolia has expanded this basic policy.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, India, Mongolia, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, North America, and United States of America
1754. Iran’s Battered Economy
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the Iranian economy in 2020 in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic and economic sanctions.
- Topic:
- Economy, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
1755. Chevron’s Purchase of Noble Energy: Accelerating the Eastern Mediterranean’s Gas Revolution?
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the latest edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Joshua Krasna examines the regional implications of Chevron's purchase of Noble Energy for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Gas, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and Jordan
1756. A preliminary assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Azerbaijani economy
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan became the country among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic challenges caused due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Providing favorable economic conditions in the post-pandemic period is as crucial as supporting the economy during the period of the pandemic. It is an undeniable fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy might be fully assessed only over time. Experience demonstrates that early evaluation may lead to even greater recession and instability. This paper aims to demonstrate the challenges faced by Azerbaijan in the framework of the fight against a pandemic. Since the economy of a country was affected, a detailed analysis may provide a better understanding of the outcome, enlightening the areas which need more support and development.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
1757. Amendments to state budget of Azerbaijan for 2020: Reasons and Expectations
- Author:
- Narmina Gasimova and Nigar İslamlı
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Nowadays, global economic growth has been severely affected beyond anything passed in nearly a century. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease has brought its negative impact and destructive outcome on the economies alongside with the sharp fluctuations in global energy and stock markets. There might be observed a subsequent sharp decline in the number of transactions and practical shutdown of many markets due to the large-scale quarantine and self-isolation measures. Taking into consideration the abovementioned factors, it becomes clear that there emerged a need to revise all economic forecasts for 2020-2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of the global economic growth rate in April (-3%), but in accordance with the current circumstances, the figures were revised in June, representing a 4.9% decrease. In spite of a fact that Azerbaijan became one of the first countries among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic problems caused due to the pandemic, the impact of the emerged difficulties made a necessity to revise the budget.
- Topic:
- Budget, GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, IMF, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
1758. COVID-19 and Public Support for Radical Policies
- Author:
- Leah Zamore and Ben Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- A growing body of evidence shows that the COVID-19 crisis is significantly affecting people’s priorities for the future. With economies around the world suffering the impact of the pandemic, the global public wants governments to adopt bold approaches in response—and polls from a range of countries show that large majorities believe their actions have not been strong enough. In this briefing, Leah Zamore and Ben Phillips examine global polling data to show what kinds of policies—including those previously deemed “radical”—are now garnering widespread support. They find that people want governments to act boldly both in responding to the immediate economic crisis and in fundamentally transforming the social contract moving forward. The briefing examines polling on a range of topics, from wide support for redistributive programs and a rejection of austerity policies, to the growing popularity of measures that check corporate power in favor of workers and consumers.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Opinion, Economy, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1759. How Much Lockdown is Enough?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Lockdown measures have been an integral tool in the fight against COVID-19. But they come at a high cost, given their impacts on economies, employment and incomes, education, food systems, mental health and even the potential for civil unrest. This policy briefing by Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel examines how countries are balancing the need for lockdown with policy measures to alleviate their effects and plans for reopening. It provides comparative data on the stringency of lockdowns, showing that while there has been a convergence towards more stringent measures over time, there is also wide variation among countries—even among those in the same region, or income group. A brief case study of Sierra Leone and snapshot examples of policy from ten other countries illustrates the range of answers to the question of how much lockdown is enough.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sierra Leone, and Global Focus
1760. US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers
- Author:
- Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers OCTOBER 6, 2020 By: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University; Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Brendan Helm, Research Assistant Although President Trump initially hoped for improved relations between the United States and Russia, during his tenure the US government has overtly declared Russia a top threat to US national security. Congress and the administration widened Obama-era sanctions against Russia after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Data from a recent survey of American experts on Russia, conducted by The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints Russia as a declining power. The results show that while experts anticipate changes in the global balance of power in the next 20 years, with China overtaking the United States, they do not expect Russia to come out stronger over that time frame. Experts draw attention to Russia’s cracked economic and political foundation in the present and its likely decline over the next two decades due to economic mismanagement and faltering soft power. Now there are the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to add to this list.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1761. Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects?
- Author:
- Paul Hofhuis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects? OCTOBER 20, 2020 By: Paul Hofhuis, Senior Research Associate, Clingendael Institute As the US presidential election rapidly approaches, an important question is the prospects for (renewed) transatlantic cooperation, especially in the areas of green recovery to the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, tackling climate change, and addressing these issues through multilateral approaches. In analyzing ambitions and initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic in three connected policy arenas, this brief argues that while a Democratic victory provides greater opportunity for collaboration, underlying structures for cooperation among societal stakeholders in the United States need to be reinvigorated to diminish polarization in society, which could continue to block the transition to a low-carbon economy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Green Technology, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
1762. The new China consensus: How Europe is growing wary of Beijing
- Author:
- Janka Oertel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Since the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a new convergence of EU member states’ assessment of the challenges China poses to Europe. The Sino-European economic relationship lacks reciprocity, and there are mounting concerns within the EU about China’s assertive approach abroad, as well as its breaches of international legal commitments and massive violations of human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Overall, there is growing scepticism about the future trajectory of the relationship, which provides an opportunity for a more robust and coherent EU policy on China. In its remaining months, the German Council presidency could use this momentum to create institutional structures to improve the EU’s capacity to act. In doing so, it will be crucial to ease concerns about Franco-German dominance of the China agenda – especially those of eastern and southern European countries – while enabling all member states to become more engaged in shaping the EU’s future approach to China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, European Union, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
1763. Defending Europe’s Economic Sovereignty: new ways to resist economic coercion
- Author:
- Jonathan Hackenbroich
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- European countries are increasingly coming under threat of economic coercion from great powers. The European Union and member states have few tools with which to combat the economic coercion waged against them. The EU’s vulnerability threatens its sovereignty and its openness. The EU should move quickly to consider and adopt a suite of tools to protect and enhance European sovereignty in the geo-economic sphere. The mere acquisition of such powers will have a deterrent effect. Such tools are thus necessary to preserve the EU’s economic openness as well as to defend and preserve the rules-based international order. This collection outlines ten such tools that the EU could adopt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, European Union, Economy, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1764. Reform from crisis: How Tunisia can use covid-19 as an opportunity
- Author:
- Thierry Brésillon and Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Tunisia’s 2019 elections produced a vote against the establishment and a fragmented political landscape in which it was challenging to form a government. Parliament is deeply divided and lacks a clear foundation for stable and efficient policymaking, while the new president has neither political experience nor a party to implement his agenda. The 2019 elections may have finally ended the transactional power-sharing agreement forged by Ennahda and representatives of the old regime, which long ignored major socio-economic challenges. The government must build on its successful response to the covid-19 pandemic to create a compromise that shares the burden of economic reform between major political actors and interest groups. If it fails to do so, the resulting rise in economic and social tension could empower anti-democratic forces and destabilise Tunisia. The European Union should actively help the Tunisian government take the path of reform by launching a strategic dialogue to rethink their priorities and identify their common interests.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Elections, European Union, Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
1765. Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19
- Author:
- Susi Dennison and Pawel Zerka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- A new pan-European survey conducted by ECFR shows that, after the onset of the covid-19 crisis, there has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats. This is grounded in Europeans’ realisation that they are alone in the world – with their perceptions of the United States, China, and Russia worsening overall. The pandemic has made European voters keenly aware of the need to prepare for the next crisis. There is growing support for the fulfilment of climate change commitments in every surveyed country. Respondents still believe in the value of European cooperation, but generally feel that EU institutions have not helped them enough during the crisis. Policymakers need to elicit voters’ support for a strong European voice on the global stage by building coalitions and identifying areas in which there is either a consensus or a bridgeable divide.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Economy, Alliance, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
1766. EU Council Commentary: No progress in MFF and recovery fund
- Author:
- Vít Havelka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- On Friday, EU leaders met online to discuss the newest proposal by the European Commission on the future MFF and Next Generation EU recovery fund. As expected, the meeting was devoted to a mere assessment of Member States’ starting negotiation positions, meaning no significant progress has been made. The leaders only agreed to finalize the negotiations as soon as possible, targeting at mid-July during the German presidency. The introduction of Next Generation EU fund rewrote the dividing lines in the EU manifesting during the previous MFF negotiations. Some groupings, such as Frugal Four remain more or less intact, whereas the group of “Friends of Cohesion” disintegrated into several blocks, which makes the negotiations less lucid. Southern Europe supports the new Commission proposals; Czech Republic, Hungary and several Baltic State express reservations. Nevertheless, the good news is that no country vetoed the Commissions proposal and there is a good chance to reach an agreement. Whether this will happen before the summer break remains to be seen. The member states positions are now far away from each other, and the leaders will have to manifest good negotiation skills in order to conclude the negotiations within one month.
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1767. "Coronationalism" vs a geopolitical Europe? EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19
- Author:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy together with Jan Kovář from Institute of International Relations Prague wrote a commentary "Czechia: This Covid-19 environment is not conducive to external solidarity" for the EPIN Report publication, concerned with EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19. EU member states have been discussing how to collectively deal with the socioeconomic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. As major debates continue to take place about internal solidarity, the question arises how the EU and its member states wish to support third countries, outside the EU, in tackling their health and economic emergencies. On the one and, the EU wishes to become a geopolitical power, which requires that the Union and its member states step up their role and support on the global scene. On the other hand, there are signs of ‘coronationalism’ with some national political parties questioning EU external aid at a time when member states themselves are struggling. Based on expert contributions from a representative cross-section of thirteen member states, this report delves into the question of whether and how external solidarity has been part of the political or public debates in Covid-struck Europe. It finds that, for now, neither ‘coronationalist’ nor geopolitical ambitions dominate the relatively little politicized debates about international cooperation and development aid.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1768. Member states’ expectations towards the German Council Presidency
- Author:
- Christian Kvorning Lassen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- As Germany assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU, the Union is facing the “biggest test of its history” according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic and a severe economic recession could not be more extraordinary. The weight of expectations on Berlin to assume a European leadership role during the presidency are as extraordinary as those challenges. What exactly do other member states expect from Germany and how do they set their policy priorities? To answer this, the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN) has compiled an analysis of 15 different national perspectives. Czechia hopes that Germany will forge a compromise that ensures more funding for the cohesion policy and more flexibility to use those funds, including those allocated to the European Green Deal. Czechs look towards the German presidency in hope that the salience of the Green Deal will fall, arguing instead that the pandemic requires a delay – or even abandonment – of a principally green-based restructuring of the economy. The fact that studies based on the previous financial crisis indicate that green investments are ideally positioned to spur economic recovery is ignored; the resistance towards climate neutrality in Czechia is ideological rather than empirical.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
1769. Brief on COVID-19: European integration continues on several fronts as the COVID-19 crisis escalates. Without the Czech Republic
- Author:
- Jiří Lacina
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- In his brief, Jiří Lacina explores the impact of COVID-19 on the future development of European integration and the role of Czechia in this development. The EU, its institutions and the Member States are working together to withstand the current pandemic and prepare for the economic crisis to follow. Simultaneously, ideas on the future arrangement of the EU are appearing. Two emerged on 9 April: one of monetary and the other of environmental nature – and both dealing with region’s economic recovery. For now, the Czech Republic is not engaging in any of them, and once again risks being left behind.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czech Republic
1770. The NATO Pipeline System: a forgotten defence asset
- Author:
- Dominik P. Jankowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, energy security has become a permanent element of NATO's strategic thinking, integrated into numerous NATO policies and activities. In fact, restoring the prominence of energy security within the Alliance was not easy, especially as this policy was considered primarily a question of national security in the post-Cold War era. It was only at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that NATO was given a dedicated, yet limited, mandate to work in this field. The mandate--based on a set of principles and guidelines--included information and intelligence sharing, cooperation on consequence management, and support for the protection of critical energy infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1771. Holding to Account: How Publishing Facts about Foreign Corruption Creates Accountability
- Author:
- Aaron Sayne and Melanie D. Reed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The complex, secretive nature of foreign corruption calls for a collaborative, all-hands-on-deck approach. Corrupt actors go to great lengths to hide their wrongdoing, using layers of legal entities, transactions, secrecy jurisdictions and middlemen. No one response can detect and prevent every bad act, and different anticorruption actors have their own unique interests, mandates and abilities. In many cases, they may struggle even to learn the facts of what went wrong. Prosecuting a corruption crime generates reams of valuable information. This can include the names of bribe takers and payers; the industries, countries and public institutions involved; how the proceeds of crime changed hands; and who facilitated or turned a blind eye. Who should get to see this information? Thought leaders on anticorruption, from Transparency International (TI) to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Working Group on Bribery (OECD WGB), have long endorsed greater transparency in foreign corruption cases. They argue, for example, that access to information raises awareness, gives guidance to anticorruption practitioners, encourages cooperation with prosecutors and boosts confidence in law enforcement. Conversely, opacity in corruption cases can weaken the deterrent value of prosecutions, open doors for prosecutorial misconduct and thwart efforts to make victims whole. These concerns are particularly keen in cases that settle via tools like deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs) or plea bargains. Many governments share evidence from corruption cases confidentially, through formal legal instruments and close working relationships. But how does public disclosure of facts from corruption cases, whether by courts or other law enforcement bodies, aid the broader fight against corruption? Put differently: At a time when enforcement of anticorruption laws remains low in many countries, could more transparency help anticorruption efforts by regulators, companies, the media, civil society and others? To answer this question, the authors of this briefing analyzed materials from foreign corruption cases that have arisen since the inception of laws banning foreign bribery. During the past four years, they also conducted over two dozen interviews with experts government, the private sector, civil society and the press. From this work, they found instances in which other anticorruption actors used published facts from court cases to do their jobs more effectively. Although they undertook this research as part of the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s (NRGI’s) programming aimed at reducing corruption risks in the oil, gas and mining sectors, they did not limit themselves to cases in the extractive industries. Accordingly, their findings and recommendations apply broadly to corruption in other sectors.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Economy, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1772. China in Europe and Transatlantic Security
- Author:
- Andrew A. Michta
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Andrew A. Michta argues that the governments of Central and Eastern European countries will need to weigh the benefit to them of continued economic engagement with China, especially in the area of 5G.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Economy, Transatlantic Relations, and 5G
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1773. Winds of Change, or More of the Same?
- Author:
- Tomas Jermalavicius, Priit Mändmaa, Emma Hakala, Tomas Janeliūnas, Juris Ozoliņš, and Krystian Kowalewski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- By coincidence perhaps more than design, the ‘winds of change’ in the twelve months between autumn 2018 and 2019 ushered in new governments—whether through national elections or through coalition reshuffling—in five Baltic Sea littoral states: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Yet, amidst sometimes rather turbulent domestic political debates, one key cluster of topics was virtually absent: energy security and climate policy. With the vital exception of Finland—a state with a relatively strong Green movement and long tradition of climate and environmental activism—no country saw climate or energy security targets raised as key campaign issues. To the extent that energy security and climate topics were mentioned at all, they either were minimized due to parties’ fear of alienating key voting blocs (as with the coal mining sector in Poland), confined to energy stakeholders and technical audiences due their complexity (as with electricity desynchronisation in the Baltic countries) or completely assimilated into a cross-party foreign policy consensus (as in the universal opposition in Lithuania to the Astravyets nuclear power plant project in Belarus). While domestic factors—including perceived national interests in ensuring energy self-sufficiency—contributed to a serious case of policy inertia, small and interconnected countries do not of course exist in a vacuum. Accordingly, international factors—from the continuing use of energy policy as an instrument of geopolitical power by Russia, to the growing consensus in the EU in favor of more ambitious climate targets—have done more to raise the salience of these issues, especially after the von der Leyen Commission took office in Brussels at the end of 2019 and put forward the so-called European Green Deal. These exogenous factors have finally, for instance, triggered a broader reassessment in Estonia of that country’s rather leisurely planned phase-out of oil shale power generation, while pushing political leaders in all five countries at least rhetorically to embrace the goal of a carbon-neutral future (albeit with considerable differences in timelines and methodology). Amidst a volatile international economic and geopolitical context that—since the time work began on this report—now includes a major global pandemic and a dramatic fall in fossil fuel demand and prices, the region’s political and economic leaders clearly cannot count on being able to make their policy selections in a vacuum. While the goal of an integrated regional energy market is closer than ever to being achieved, regional cooperation still has much to be desired; differing attitudes to issues both technical (e.g. harmonising natural gas regulations, which has left Lithuania outside a new regional market) or fundamental (importing third-country electricity generated without regard to EU climate or pollution standards) leave all five countries less able to respond to challenges ahead. While the region’s countries have largely relied on Brussels to broker compromises (often with the help of considerable funding), in a post-pandemic world, both the political bandwidth and financial resources will likely be constrained. In its country sections, this report captures a valuable snapshot of the relative inertia as well as the degree of evolution of the energy and climate policies of the five countries in the face of that year’s fairly calm international context. Given the significant economic, human, and political changes underway as a result of the pandemic, however, it is an open question to what extent the region can weather the far more turbulent times ahead. The political and societal willingness to pursue the energy transition to a carbon-neutral future through new—more ambitious and certainly more expensive—energy and climate policies as a response to the climate emergency will very much depend on how the impact of the pandemic plays out globally, in Europe and in the Baltic area. It will also require strong leadership from a new generation of political, business and societal leaders able to see green recovery as a major opportunity for their nations in terms of economic development, social welfare and national security.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Environment, Politics, Governance, European Union, Economy, Sustainability, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Baltic States
1774. China’s Sovereignty and Internet Governance
- Author:
- Kadri Kaska and Maria Tolppa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Increasingly, China’s expanding role in the evolution and development of both the global economy and digital technologies must be acknowledged. A vivid example of this is the active debate over the development of 5G networks over the past few years, in which countries increasingly understand that the impact of new technologies on national security interests must be taken into account when they are implemented. Recent amendments to the Electronic Communications Act in Estonia will create a basis for managing such security risks in our country. Major conceptual difference is that China treats the internet above all as an information space that, to be protected from “subverting state power, undermining national unity [or] infringing upon national honour and interests”, must be strictly organised and controlled by the government.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1775. Economic Interests, Political Conflicts, and External Interferences: The Complex Interlocking of the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Alessia Melcangi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In the last days of September 2020, Libya’s oil industry seemed to be on the verge of restarting its production after Gen. Khalifa Haftar announced the reopening of the oil fields and terminals that he had occupied and closed in the course of his offensive against Tripoli. The main damage caused by Haftar’s blockade is the dramatic plummet of oil production to less than 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous 1.2 million. The importance of the oil and gas industry in Libya cannot be underestimated since it is the main driver of the Libyan economy and accounts for about 60% of the country’s GDP. Oil production revenues and the dividends from oil sales are one of the main causes of the conflict that has been continuously ravaging the country since the fall of Muammar Qadhafi in 2011. The announced reopening represents good news that bodes well not only for a real resumption of political talks between the warring parties, but also for a more general improvement of the economic and social condition in the country, which is now on the verge of collapse. After the January 2020 blockade, the quick shutdown of oil sales led to a budget collapse: In April 2020, oil production data showed a drop of more than 80% with a loss of more than $10 billion in oil revenues. The economic impact of this stoppage directly hit the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC), preventing the company from fulfilling contracts with international oil companies. After so many years of civil war, it has become evident that competition among various actors is principally over the country’s resources and control of its financial institutions. According to the 2015 UN-backed Libyan Political Agreement, the Tripoli government headed by Fayez Sarraj retains control of the Tripoli-based NOC and oversees the allocation of state funds deposited in the Tripoli-based Central Bank — these are the two channels through which oil revenues can flow legally and the only two institutions recognized by the UN Security Council. Haftar and the Eastern government accuse Tripoli of mismanaging hydrocarbon revenues and state funds, using them to fund militias backing the Government of National Accord (GNA), and failing to carry out reforms to stabilize the economy. For this reason, the Eastern authorities demand a change of leadership in both institutions: The Central Bank and the NOC. Indeed, the problem for Haftar has always been that he controlled oil production, but not oil revenues. After almost a year locked in a stalemate, the situation on the battlefield was reversed in April 2020. Thanks to Turkey’s military support, the GNA was able to counterattack and defeat the Haftar-controlled Libyan National Army (LNA) and push them back to the gates of the city of Sirte near the “oil crescent,” a coastal area home to most of Libya’s oil export terminals. The ceasefire proposed by the GNA at the end of August 2020 and accepted by the Tobruk parliament and its spokesman, Aguila Saleh, has restarted the political dialogue between the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, the malcontent of the population in both Tripoli and Benghazi, due to the deterioration of living conditions and lack of economic reforms, led to protests and demonstrations in both cities.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
1776. Social Distancing: Australia’s Relations with China
- Author:
- Felix Chang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Affronts to Australia by China’s top diplomat in Canberra and the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper reached new heights in April 2020. What prompted their verbal barbs was the Australian government’s backing for an independent review into the origins and spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have regarded such a review as a way to avert future pandemics, Beijing saw it as support for finger-pointing at China. Whichever is the case, the affronts shone a light on how Beijing has come to view Australia and what it and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region might expect from China in the future. Still, China’s diplomatic and editorial barbs were surprising. China has long worked to move Australia closer into its orbit and away from that of the United States. And, by and large, those efforts had been paying off. Over the last decade, several Australian foreign policy analysts had come to believe that greater accommodation of China would be needed to ensure Australia’s future prosperity. Indeed, Canberra has already shown more sensitivity on issues, like Taiwan, which Beijing deemed strategic. But rather than being content with Australia’s gradual shift, China has undertaken actions that could undermine it, from cyber-espionage to political influence-buying in Australia. China’s most recent affronts are likely to deepen Australian concerns over what Chinese power means for the region.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Australia
1777. COVID-19 and Authoritarian Regimes: China vs. Russia
- Author:
- Yaroslav Shevchenko
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are certainly the two most prominent authoritarian regimes in the world today, with their quasi-alliance characterized as an “axis of authoritarians” and portrayed as a major threat to the West and global liberal democracy. However, despite unmistakable similarities that exist between Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, the reality is far more complex. Their respective responses to the COVID-19 crisis shed some light on differences between the political-governance models of these two countries.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
1778. The Chinese Communist Party’s coercive diplomacy
- Author:
- Fergus Hanson, Emilia Currey, and Tracy Beattie
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly deploying coercive diplomacy against foreign governments and companies. Coercive diplomacy isn’t well understood, and countries and companies have struggled to develop an effective toolkit to push back against and resist it. This report tracks the CCP’s use of coercive diplomacy over the past 10 years, recording 152 cases of coercive diplomacy affecting 27 countries as well as the European Union. The data shows that there’s been a sharp escalation in these tactics since 2018. The regions and countries that recorded the most instances of coercive diplomacy over the last decade include Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia. The CCP’s coercive tactics can include economic measures (such as trade sanctions, investment restrictions, tourism bans and popular boycotts) and non-economic measures (such as arbitrary detention, restrictions on official travel and state-issued threats). These efforts seek to punish undesired behaviour and focus on issues including securing territorial claims, deploying Huawei’s 5G technology, suppressing minorities in Xinjiang, blocking the reception of the Dalai Lama and obscuring the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. China is the largest trading partner for nearly two-thirds of the world’s countries, and its global economic importance gives it significant leverage. The impacts of coercive diplomacy are exacerbated by the growing dependency of foreign governments and companies on the Chinese market. The economic, business and security risks of that dependency are likely to increase if the CCP can continue to successfully use this form of coercion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Economy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
1779. Economic coercion: Boycotts and sanctions-preferred weapons of war
- Author:
- David Uren
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This report argues that the growing use of economic coercion by both China and the United States is an emerging risk for business and undermines the world trading system. Australian businesses that have in good faith taken up the opportunities offered by the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, signed in 2015, now find themselves facing the potential loss of market access as the Chinese administration retaliates over Australian government policies on a coronavirus inquiry and the next generation internet network. Australian businesses are not the targets of US sanctions, but US extra-territorial reach means they are at risk of serious collateral damage if they even inadvertently transact with any individual or organisation that is. The report traces the growing use of trade as an economic weapon, particularly over the last three years as the global trade environment has become increasingly fractious amid rising protectionism. The World Trade Organisation has successfully been used in the past to push back against economic coercion and the report argues the Australian government should be ready to use the disputes mechanism of the World Trade Organisation to tackle Chinese trade barriers. Multilateral forums, including APEC, the G20, the OECD and the WTO should recognise the growing threat which economic coercion represents to the freedom of commerce.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Economy, Trade Wars, Free Trade, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and United States of America
1780. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 2, 27.07.2020 – 23.08.2020
- Author:
- Medea Ivaniadze
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries)
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Georgia, and South Caucasus
1781. Impact of Anti-Pandemic Restrictions and Government Anti-Crisis Measures on Employment, Incomes and the Poverty Level in Georgia
- Author:
- Merab Kakulia and Nodar Kapanadze
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to the world economy. It is no coincidence that the crisis provoked by the pandemic has been compared to the largest economic crises of the last hundred years such as the “Great Depression” of 1929-1933 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009. According to the International Monetary Fund, the “Great Lockdown” (Gopinath, 2020) has simultaneously weakened economic activity around the world, sharply reduced household consumption, particularly harmed the service sector and severely hit the labor market and international trade (IMF, 2020). The result was a massive loss of jobs and a depletion of regular sources of income for households, precipitating a real threat of a sharp rise in poverty. Clearly, Georgia has not been able to avoid these events, even more so since the service sector particularly affected by the pandemic crisis, including the tourism industry, accounts for 74 percent of the country's economy (Geostat, 2019). Although the spread of the disease was initially relatively small in the face of anti-pandemic restrictions imposed by the government, the country's economy has suffered greatly. To at least partially offset the severe socio-economic consequences caused by the restrictions to prevent the further spread of COVID-19, including forced home isolation, governments around the world, among them the Georgian government, have started to implement anti-crisis measures. However, the assessment of their effectiveness proved to be difficult in the view of an almost continuous increase in the scale of the pandemic. The following study aims to evaluate the: - Direct impact of state anti-pandemic restrictions on employment and unemployment; - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in mitigating the negative impact of antipandemic restrictions, including lockdowns, on employment and unemployment; - Employment and unemployment forecast for 2020-2021, taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Direct impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on the dynamics and structure of household incomes; - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in neutralizing the negative impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on household incomes; - Household income forecast for 2020-2021, taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Direct impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on the poverty level according to the subsistence minimum (extreme poverty line); - Role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in preventing a rise of extreme poverty as a result of anti-pandemic restrictions; - Forecast of extreme poverty levels for 2020-2021 taking into account the results of the first wave of the pandemic; - Effectiveness of government emergency anti-crisis measures.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia
1782. China and geopolitical considerations for investment screening in the Netherlands
- Author:
- Brigitte Dekker, Frans-Paul van der Putten, and Xiaoxue Martin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief analyses whether there are grounds for the Dutch government to conduct critical assessments of direct investments, particularly from China, from a geopolitical perspective. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic warrant continued critical oversight of Chinese foreign investments and screening of such investments. Particularly during the current difficult times for the Dutch economy, there are new opportunities for Chinese investors as a result of increased needs for capital and/or new markets on the part of Dutch companies. This policy brief argues that from a geopolitical perspective there are two grounds for the Dutch government to screen investments: the Netherlands’ need to keep pace with changes in the geopolitical stance of the US and other Western countries towards China; and the risk that the Netherlands and the EU could lose a large part of their capacity for autonomous action in a geopolitical context. Hence there are two criteria that investment screening must fulfill. The first is that it must take account of the security and geopolitical implications of investments in high-tech companies. The second is that it must be aimed at preventing a high degree of strategic dependence on a single operator.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1783. The Erdogan Doctrine: Turkey’s regional strategy
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
1784. K-12: COVID-19 Disruption Must Lead To Overdue Reform
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- High quality education is a critical pathway to career success and economic mobility, particularly for students from low-income backgrounds.1 An education system that invests in children beginning at the earliest ages and supports their development as both citizens and skilled workforce entrants of the future—with both in-demand cutting-edge abilities and knowledge and the tools to continue to upgrade their education and training across the course of their career—is a necessity to ensuring that US employers remain globally competitive and that all Americans share in broad-based and growing prosperity in the 21st century. Pre-pandemic, even with low measured unemployment, there were reasons to be worried that US education was failing to live up to its full potential to better serve many students. Employers remained worried about the preparedness of the workforce, with nearly 40 percent of employers reporting that they couldn’t attract workers with the skills they needed, even for entry-level jobs.2 Despite the lure of higher average wages and employment rates for college graduates, a third of recent high school graduates did not enroll in college in October of 2019, and based on past studies, only about forty percent of students who do enroll in college will complete a degree within six years.3 In 2018, nearly a quarter of full-time workers aged 25 to 64 were earning less than $15 per hour and the labor force participation of American workers between the ages of 25 and 54 remained stubbornly low.4 Policymakers, educators, and business leaders were already faced with the task of improving the status quo; as outlined in Early Education and Child Care: The Essential Sector and Developing the Future Workforce: Revitalizing Postsecondary Education and Training After COVID-19, the COVID-19 pandemic has upended the nation’s education and training at every level. Elementary and secondary education is no exception. The disruption to date has already set back student learning, widened existing educational disparities, and placed K-12 schools under enormous pressure to chart a viable path forward through the end of the pandemic even as local conditions remain subject to rapid change.
- Topic:
- Education, Reform, Economy, Economic Mobility, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1785. Meeting the Upskilling Challenge: Training in the Time of COVID-19
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has left tens of millions of Americans out of work or uncertain about the future of their current jobs, and thousands of firms urgently reassessing their own viability and path forward. Much remains unknown about the economy that will follow COVID-19. But clearly the pandemic’s whirlwind destruction has, first and foremost, hurt less-educated workers the most, with most of the job losses occurring in manual services, and has accelerated the innovative use of technology in the workplace. These two trends threaten to deepen inequality and add to the urgency of the upskilling and training challenge. Even before the pandemic led to the highest national unemployment rate since the Great Depression, American businesses and workers were anxious about how emerging technologies could potentially change which skills are in demand, and challenge workers to navigate careers requiring continual learning and adaptation.1 Both public policy and private sector leaders must prioritize support for building a US workforce with the necessary skills to outmaneuver this disruption. During pandemic-induced mass unemployment, the first task of policy is to restore as many Americans as possible to gainful employment as soon as the public health emergency allows. But after what is clearly the US’ second sizable economic downturn in barely a decade, workers cannot afford a slow recovery or one that leaves them just as vulnerable as they were before COVID-19 to technological innovation and job displacement. With innovative programs, this current crisis that has idled so many workers can be turned into an opportunity to meet this training and upskilling challenge.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economy, Training, COVID-19, Workforce, and Skills
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1786. 2020 Election: Achieving a Safe, Accessible, and Credible Election during COVID-19
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The 2020 general election is already underway, with absentee ballots being mailed out and collected in some states. And what seemed worryingly possible in the spring is now inevitable: the COVID-19 pandemic will be an important factor in the conduct of this fall’s election. Every community must address the public health threat and facilitate safe participation. Policymakers, election officials, and business leaders must ensure that voters need not choose between exercising their franchise and protecting their health, and that the election itself does not further spread COVID-19.1 The Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) strongly believes that transparent, fair, and accessible elections are fundamental to the confidence of US citizens in their government and its leadership, and to the long-term health of the US economy. In May, June, and July, CED called on Congress to provide states with funding to conduct a safe, accessible, and credible election in the midst of a pandemic. With the election in progress, and Election Day less than two months away, the states and local communities, with or without federal support—including leaders in the business community—must act to meet those goals. As explained in this Solutions Brief, there is still time to protect voters and poll workers and maintain trust in the conduct and outcome of elections. Fortunately, effective measures are already in force in pockets of the country, with states and election officials needing only to replicate the best preparations and practices nationwide. This brief outlines recommendations policymakers should adopt to improve operations in their jurisdictions. Given the public health challenges involved, business leaders will also play a critical role in protecting their employees, customers, and communities during a successful election. To the extent possible, business leaders should take the concrete steps outlined in the brief to assist in the election effort.
- Topic:
- Elections, Economy, Business, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1787. First Hundred Days Plan
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board prepared the following analysis and recommendations in the spirit of our founding members, America’s foremost business leaders during World War II, who came together to solve our nation’s crucial postwar economic and social challenges. Similarly, business leaders today, hand-in-hand with policymakers and the American public, must provide a thoughtful response to the COVID-19 crisis and restore confidence in capitalism and our democratic institutions. CED respectfully offers its nonpartisan analysis and recommendations for the first 100 days of the new administration to build a stronger, more resilient, and more responsive economy that provides opportunity and prosperity for all Americans. The objective is to overcome the public health challenge, safely reopen the economy, and get our nation on a path to high levels of employment, production, and consumption—to put our country back to work safely, making capitalism benefit all Americans.
- Topic:
- Employment, Capitalism, Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1788. COVID-19’s Impact on Women in the Workplace: Avoiding a Major Setback
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on industries where women are heavily concentrated combined with the virus’s debilitating impact on child care options and in-person schooling threatens progress in the integration and representation of women in the US economy. Even if the reversal proves temporary, as is likely, the career consequences of the pandemic for individual women could have long-lasting effects and slow future progress.1 When talented workers sit on the sidelines or are prevented from fully contributing to the workforce, those workers are not the only ones affected. The economic strength of the entire nation suffers for the duration of those workers’ entire careers, and employers miss out on an important competitive resource. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 on women is a first-order national concern. Women are a vital part of the American labor force, both as nearly half of workers, and, as the primary facilitators of work by others through formal and informal caretaking roles. Even if progress in more fully integrating women into all aspects and levels of the economy has, at times, been slow, it has also been one of the most important sources of strength for the American economy over the past half century.3 The continued lowering of barriers and further economic integration of women into all fields and roles in proportion to their talents remains one of the surest paths to increasing the size, skill, and contributions to innovation of the American workforce.4
- Topic:
- Women, Employment, Inequality, Economy, COVID-19, and Workforce
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1789. Today’s Infrastructure Improvements Will Drive Tomorrow’s Economy
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- Few issues enjoy such broad bipartisan consensus as the failings of American infrastructure. Roughly two-thirds of Americans rate their own local roads as only in fair or poor condition, and a similar proportion say that the country is not doing enough to meet infrastructure needs, making infrastructure a top-tier issue in 2020. With Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin signaling that infrastructure spending is a priority for the administration if economic stimulus is required to address slowdowns in the economy due to COVID-19, the US approach to infrastructure projects is poised to become an even more pressing issue. Modern, effective infrastructure is an essential requirement for national commerce—and for growing and widely shared prosperity—even as changes in technology drive changes in infrastructure requirements. While definitions vary, a 2019 Trump administration executive order defined infrastructure projects as those relating to surface transportation; aviation; ports; water resources projects; energy production, generation, storage, transmission, and distribution; broadband internet; pipelines; stormwater and sewer infrastructure; drinking water infrastructure; and cybersecurity. Efficient investment in cutting-edge infrastructure connects businesses and workers to more opportunities, increases productivity, and undergirds American competitiveness. Thus, US infrastructure is vital to sustain capitalism and maintain US economic leadership. However, the US routinely lags other advanced nations in infrastructure quality and, when considering the size of its economy, infrastructure investment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1790. Smart Regulation in a Post-COVID-19 Economy
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has put regulation issues front and center in every American’s life. Within a few short weeks, 41 out of 50 states have issued stay-at-home orders,1 and regulations governing many other aspects of all Americans’ public lives are now imposed because of COVID-19. Among a long list of constraints, nonessential businesses, many of them small businesses, have been required to cease or sharply curtail their services. Schools have been closed, access to parks and outdoor spaces has been restricted, and other staples of all Americans’ public lives, including large gatherings, have been restricted. On the other hand, and more than ever before, Americans have seen other regulations lifted rapidly, particularly in the heavily regulated health care sector. Constraints on testing, laboratories, out-of-state health care workers, vaccine R&D, telemedicine, ventilator production, and infrastructure expansion have been relaxed. Even more extensive relief has addressed the unprecedented havoc that COVID-19 has unleashed on American society, public health, and the economy. Restrictions on work at home, online courses at colleges and universities, the transport of food and alcohol, and hours truck drivers can be on the road are all being lifted or relaxed to meet the demands of the crisis. Restrictions on the production of hand sanitizer and the amount that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) allows passengers to carry on airplanes have also been relaxed.
- Topic:
- Regulation, Economy, Business, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1791. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors
- Author:
- Zena Grecni, Wendy Miles, Romina King, Abby G. Frazier, and Victoria Keener
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Hotter weather, risks to freshwater supplies, coral reef death, and stronger typhoons are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in Guam. Threatened resources include high-value coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to Guam’s economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is one in a series of new PIRCA reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the University of Guam and the East-West Center—along with more than 30 technical contributors from local governments, NGOs, researchers, and community groups—collaboratively developed the Guam PIRCA report. Key climate change issues affecting Guam include threats to human health, risks to freshwater resources, increasing wildfire, and the potential for damage to infrastructure caused by future sea level rise and stronger typhoons. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in Guam. Those who are already vulnerable are harmed more than others by extreme weather and climate shifts. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand how climate variability and change impact Guam and its communities. This assessment also identifies needs for additional information and research, which if met could support responses that enhance resilience and help Guam to withstand the changes to come.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Guam
1792. Hezbollah Has Created Parallel Financial and Welfare Systems to Manage the Current Crisis
- Author:
- Hanin Ghadder
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- To contain corrupt actors and facilitate reform, the international community must provide alternatives to Hezbollah pharmaceutical and food programs while filling gaps that the group is unable to address. Despite Lebanon’s deteriorating financial and economic situation, the country’s political elite have made clear that they will not implement reforms laid out by the international community as prerequisites for a bailout. In their view, the changes specified by the IMF, the World Bank, and the French-sponsored aid framework CEDRE would mean the eventual collapse of their political class, whose corruption and illegal business dealings are protected and encouraged by Hezbollah. Indeed, the emergence of a more independent secular political class that reflects the October 2019 protests is a serious concern for the militia and its allies in government, so they have chosen to manage the crisis rather than resolve it. Thus far, Hezbollah’s crisis-management efforts have far surpassed those of every other political party, civil society organization, and foreign assistance channel. The group’s military structure, organizational expertise, and access to alternative sources are enabling it to pursue temporary strategies for surviving the current crisis, while also retaining independence from state institutions, preserving a measure of support from its core Shia community, and discouraging Shia from joining any further rounds of public unrest. In the longer term, Hezbollah seems to be hoping that a transformative regional development—perhaps a new U.S.-Iranian nuclear agreement or a favorable U.S.-European partnership on Lebanon—will allow it to resolve its own financial crisis and regain access to hard currency, either from the Iranian regime or through international assistance mechanisms. Yet even if Hezbollah seems fairly well-positioned to weather the storm, the Lebanese people—including the group’s support base—are not. According to a new World Bank report, half the population is living below the poverty line, and more will soon join them if the Central Bank stops subsidizing medicine, fuel, wheat, and other essentials two months from now as projected.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Finance, Economy, Crisis Management, Hezbollah, Welfare, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
1793. With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows
- Author:
- Kevjin Lim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever. When the coronavirus spun out of control in Wuhan this January, Iran ignored the example of many other countries and continued to maintain direct flights and open borders with China. Even after President Hassan Rouhani’s government suspended all such flights on January 31, Mahan Air—a company affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—kept flying between Tehran and four first-tier Chinese cities, leading many to allege that the airline was instrumental in introducing or at least exacerbating Iran’s raging epidemic. Whatever the truth behind these allegations, Mahan’s policy is symptomatic of a larger geopolitical reality: Tehran has become profoundly, disproportionately, and perhaps irretrievably dependent on Beijing, despite its own revolutionary opposition to reliance on foreign powers. Where diplomatic and economic sanctions have fallen short, the pandemic has succeeded in isolating the Islamic Republic like never before, compelling it to keep its borders to China open. COVID-19 has also dispelled the notion that Iran’s heavily-sanctioned “resistance economy” still suffices to keep the country solvent. The government has conceded that staying afloat would be impossible if it curtailed cross-border trade, shut down industries, and quarantined entire cities. The crisis is so severe that Iran’s Central Bank has for the first time in decades requested billions of U.S. dollars in assistance from the IMF. Indeed, according to Deputy Health Minister Reza Malekzadeh, whenever his colleagues questioned why China flights continue, bilateral economic relations were among the reasons given. Two days after the government’s ban on such flights, Chinese ambassador Chang Hua tweeted that Mahan CEO Hamid Arabnejad wanted to continue cooperating with Beijing. Neither man specified exactly what this meant, but the implied message to Tehran was clear given China’s resentment of travel bans. Meanwhile, the Iranian Students News Agency, Tabnak, and other domestic media criticized Mahan for prioritizing profit margins over public health.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia
1794. Digitalising the Fiscal Contract: An Interdisciplinary Framework for Empirical Inquiry
- Author:
- Christian van Haldenwang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Taxation is above all a political rather than a technical issue. But what happens if new digital technologies cause profound power shifts in the relationship between revenue authorities and taxpayers? The paper seeks to lay the conceptual groundwork for the analysis of this interplay.
- Topic:
- Economy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1795. Cling Together, Swing Together: The Contagious Effects of COVID-19 on Developing Countries through Global Value Chains
- Author:
- Stefan Pahl, Clara Brandi, Jakob Schwab, and Frederik Stender
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reveals that adverse demand-side effects reduce GDP up to 5.4 percent, and collapsing foreign supply generates a drop in GDP of a similar magnitude.
- Topic:
- Developing World, GDP, Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1796. How Sustainable is Recycling? Reconciling the Social, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions in Argentina
- Author:
- Anna Pegels, Stefanie Heyer, David Ohlig, Felix Kurz, Lena Laux, and Prescott Morley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- How can recycling in developing countries be shaped to be socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable? Our research synthesizes the ideas and expectations of a diverse set of actors in the recycling sector of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, and Recycling
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
1797. Framing Russia’s Mediterranean Return: Stages, Roots and Logics
- Author:
- Dario Cristiani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s return as a major geostrategic actor in the Mediterranean is one of the most significant trends characterising this area over the past few years. Part of a broader geopolitical pluralization of this space, Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria marked a new phase in Moscow’s Mediterranean engagement. Based on a stringent logic of intervening where other powers leave strategic vacuums, Russia has succeeded to carve out an increasingly central role in Mediterranean equilibria, despite its limited resources. Russian diplomatic and economic support for the Syrian regime in Damascus had steadily increased since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Yet, it was Moscow’s direct military intervention in September 2015 that signalled a decisive upgrade in engagement. Moscow’s military involvement shifted the tide of the conflict, proving decisive in avoiding the collapse of the Syrian regime, which is also backed by Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria
1798. The Lebanese Crisis and the Mirage of Natural Gas
- Author:
- Benedetta Brossa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse as mounting economic, political and geopolitical pressures put unprecedented stress on the country’s institutional – and deeply sectarianised – setup. In October 2019, when large scale anti-establishment protests erupted across the country, what has been described as the Lebanese “Ponzi scheme”,[1] a shady mechanism through which the country was able to attract continuous injections of foreign currency to sustain Lebanon’s financial system with artificially inflated interest rates, came to a breaking point. The value of the Lebanese lira dropped significantly, as have socio-economic conditions for large parts of the population. Then came the massive explosion in Beirut, the latest, severe blow to the country’s economy, already suffering from a dysfunctional political apparatus, the recent default on the state’s debt in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic explosion reignited popular anger. Lebanese citizens renovated their grievances against the pervasive corruption and sectarianism that has dominated Lebanon’s confessional system, leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Mediterranean
1799. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence
- Author:
- Anas El Gomati
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
1800. Lebanon as a Test Case for the EU’s Logic of Governmentality in Refugee Challenges
- Author:
- Tamirace Fakhoury
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Prior to 2011, Lebanon was no traditional gatekeeper in managing migrant and refugee flows to the EU. Following mass refugee influx from Syria, the small Middle Eastern state acquired key importance in the EU’s architecture of externalisation, alternatively framed as the set of norms and practices that the EU crafts to govern migration from a distance. Lebanon currently hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and since 2012 the EU has been the key funding power seeking to help the refugee-hosting state cope with the spillover effects that mass displacement brought about on the country. The EU’s recently published New Pact on Migration and Asylum reiterates support to refugees and refugee-hosting countries – including those in Syria’s neighbourhood – as one of the central elements of cooperation with third countries on migration and displacement. After nearly a decade of cooperation between the EU and Lebanon in this area, and ahead of the EU’s new budgetary and policy-planning cycle (2021–27), now is a key moment to critically assess EU-Lebanon cooperation on displacement from Syria.
- Topic:
- Government, Foreign Aid, European Union, Refugees, Economy, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria