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16261. Indo-Pacific election pulse 2020: Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar and the United States: Views from The Strategist

Author:
Huong Le Thu and Alexandra Pascoe
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The ‘Indo-Pacific Election Pulse’ is an annual project examining the most consequential elections in the region and the most important for Australia’s strategic environment. In what was an ‘unprecedented’ year, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar, and the United States braved the challenge of conducting elections under the shadow of a pandemic. This diverse collection of views – from experts from different countries and fields – looks at how the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted the key elections in our region. A key challenge faced this year included countering misinformation, disinformation and cyber-enabled attempts at foreign interference, as in-person campaigning was restricted, and the virus forced campaign activities online. The victories of incumbents in Singapore, New Zealand, and Myanmar showed how effective responses to the pandemic granted legitimacy to governments. Taiwan also saw an electoral win by the sitting government. But this was largely a response to Xi Jinping’s harsh politics rather than the government’s pandemic response, as the election took place in January before Covid-19 spread globally. Conversely, in the US, the Trump administration’s disastrous response to the Covid-19 crisis resulted in a change of leadership. With the Biden administration preparing for the transition, partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific are growing more hopeful to see a return of a more engaged, predictable, or at least conventional, US foreign policy. The year has been short on good news, and the Indo-Pacific democracies, like all nations, have had their fair share of challenges. But despite the creeping trend of democratic decline globally – arguably exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic – the results show that democratic activism and accountability are doing well.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Elections, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

16262. The influence environment: A survey of Chinese-language media in Australia

Author:
Alex Joske, Lin Li, Alex Pascoe, and Nathan Attrill
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In the past two decades, Australia’s Chinese-language media landscape has undergone fundamental changes that have come at a cost to quality, freedom of speech, privacy and community representation. The diversity of Australia’s Chinese communities, which often trace their roots to Hong Kong, Southeast Asia and Taiwan as well as the People’s Republic of China, isn’t well reflected in the media sector. Persistent efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to engage with and influence Chinese language media in Australia far outmatch the Australian Government’s work in the same space. A handful of outlets generally offer high-quality coverage of a range of issues. However, CCP influence affects all media. It targets individual outlets while also manipulating market incentives through advertising, coercion and WeChat. Four of the 24 Australian media companies studied in this report show evidence of CCP ownership or financial support.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Media, Social Media, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16263. The US and the Israeli –Palestinian Conflict: One-state solution, two-state solution or no solution at all?

Author:
Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Rashid Khalidi, Gideon Levy, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The online discussion explored the situation on the ground, elaborated on whether and how the Trump administration’s policies have impacted the conflict in the long-run, its repercussions on the broader Middle East region, and assess the role a Biden administration might play in the next future?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Negotiation, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

16264. The US Elections 2020: What Future for Democracy, Social Movements, and Human Rights?

Author:
Deva Woodly, Tina Kempin Reuter, and Saskia Stachowitsch
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
While Joe Biden has won the US presidential elections, it is clear that the Trump presidency was not an aberration in the democratic tradition of the US, but reflects a broader shift towards authoritarian politics that is also mirrored on the global scale. This panel discussion reflects on the domestic and international effects of these shifts on social movements, marginalized populations, human rights, and global peace-making. Together with renowned experts, we will explore the future of social justice, inclusion, and participation in the US and beyond under a Biden administration that is faced with the conditions of populism, persistent white supremacy, and rising authoritarianism.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Populism, Social Justice, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16265. The historical origins of global jihad, revisited

Author:
Thomas Hegghammer and Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Where does transnational jihadism come from? Why did militant Islamists start targeting the West in the 1990s after decades of operating locally? In this lecture, Thomas Hegghammer revisited the historical origins of the phenomenon often referred to as "global jihadism". Using insights from his latest book, The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad (Cambridge, 2020), he argued that the standard narrative established in the years after 9/11 was too West-focused and state-centric, and that local politics and technology played a greater role than is often acknowledged.
Topic:
Science and Technology, History, Non State Actors, Transnational Actors, Violence, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16266. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Tools for an Inclusive Future?

Author:
Eve Lee
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have rapidly evolved from a sci-fi concept to a plausible alternative to cash that is being studied by central banks all over the world. According to a Belfer Center tracker, over 50 central banks have pursued or are engaging in CBDC work as of August 2020. However, while 10 central banks have already piloted or announced plans to pilot a CBDC in the near term, most are in the early stages of research and experimentation. In this brief, we outline the common motivations driving central bank work on CBDCs. We then explore CBDCs’ potential impacts on financial inclusion, a primary motivation in developing and emerging markets that has also gained significant traction in developed economies during the COVID-19 related global recession. We conclude that for CBDCs to achieve its financial inclusion goals, more technical advancement in offline adaptability and policy deliberations around issues of identity and traceability are needed.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16267. The Public-Purpose Consortium: Enabling Emerging Technology with a Public Mission

Author:
Jake Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Imagine a speculative technology, one that is destined to change lives and improve the world, but also one where many scientific and practical questions remain to be answered. Companies and entrepreneurs, already seeing the potential, have begun spinning up new efforts and launching startups to realize products and services. You know that investors are likely underestimating both the difficulty posed by the technology and the long-term impact. The science and engineering remain far from that necessary to achieve those goals, much less understand the unintended consequences. You are now tasked with enabling the economic growth implied by these opportunities while ensuring both scientific progress and minimizing unintended negative outcomes. What do you do? Faced with this challenge in the still esoteric field of quantum information science, leaders in the Government and I worked with stakeholders from across the United States and around the world to build a foundational approach for this new technology. Rather than using a roadmap with product or milestone driven development, we instead focused on building a community around the emerging technologies and scientific challenges necessary to build quantum computers. These are devices that operate at the very limits set by nature in what and how they compute and are fantastically hard to create – so much so that their basic operation and architecture are areas of active research. And their impact is fantastically broad, thus the need to both temper expectations and enable cooperation. In executing a program to enable this new sector, we developed a specific approach for solving the challenge of blending profit motive and public good that leverages the mechanism of consortia. We are at a moment in time where cooperation between public-purpose stakeholders and profit-motive stakeholders can be an effective means of integrating public purpose into technology as it emerges. This brief covers the basic concept of a public-purpose consortium (PPC), examination of what combination of factors lead to their use for emerging technologies, and considers the key principles for organizing PPCs and enabling their success: Build Community, Enable Cooperation, Ensure Value, Institute Governance, and Keep It Lightweight.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Stakeholders, and Engineering
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16268. The Future of Carbon Offset Markets

Author:
Henry Lee and Abigail Mayer
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Corporations, organizations, and even governments are purchasing offsets to reduce their carbon footprint. This policy brief provides an overview of the offset process – who buys them, who produces them, and who certifies them; describes the emerging challenges facing this market; and makes recommendations for the future.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16269. Mis/ Disinformation and Cyber Incident Communications Response: Top Takeaways

Author:
Belfer Center
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The top priority in a cyber crisis or in the face of mis and disinformation, will be to maintain public trust. The most effective way to achieve that goal is to respond confidently and quickly. Although response to both types of incidents will differ, there are a number of common best practices you can apply in your preparation ahead of election day. This summary guide helps detail common and specific responses to each type of incident.
Topic:
Communications, Elections, Misinformation, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16270. Final Week Cybersecurity Considerations: Top Takeaways

Author:
Belfer Center
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This election has already faced threats from cyber adversaries seeking to influence its outcome. The joint CISA-FBI alert confirming Russian state-sponsored activity targeting government networks on October 22 builds on other advisories around potential cyberattacks on election systems ahead of the election, including advisories of DDOS attacks against election infrastructure. Making unplanned or last-minute changes ahead of election day can introduce serious risks, especially given the short window to test changes. Here are some considerations as you work to address and prepare to counter potential cyber threats.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Elections, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

16271. What We Can Learn From the Wonder Women of COVID-19

Author:
Izzy Ernst and Grace Pringle
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The one good news story of 2020 seems to have been the rise of female leadership. In April, a Washington Post headline declared that female leaders were “hailed as voices of reason amid the coronavirus chaos.” High-profile figures like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen emerged as perfect foils to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Donald Trump. Since then, our research confirmed that male-led countries had 1.9 times more COVID-19 deaths per million than their female counterparts during the first five months after outbreak or roughly the first wave of coronavirus.1 However, despite the appealing headlines, our research also found that there is a catch: female leaders did not perform better because of their sex, but rather because of their leadership skills. We tested four popular theories commentators put forward to explain the coronavirus gender gap. Were female leaders more likely to: involve experts in decisions, show empathy, communicate instructions clearly, or take early action to avoid loss of life? These traits roughly track with leadership research that suggests that female leaders are more likely to be participative or democratic, other-directed, and risk averse. In contrast, male leaders tend to be authoritarian, self-directed, and risk-takers. These trends may be explained by socialization and experiences of women. As Professor Zoe Marks notes, “women in male-dominated fields often incur penalties for assertive, power-seeking behavior.” Men and white people also tend to perceive risks as less likely than women and people of color respectively. However, it turns out none of the leadership behaviors we analyzed are correlated with women any more than with men. Successful leaders with the fewest COVID-19 deaths—wonder woman New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern as well as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison—share two leadership traits in common: early, decisive action and clear, instructive communication. They locked down earlier and communicated clearly, plainly explaining harsh realities, instructions and warnings. No one can argue that President Trump’s statement that “like a miracle, [COVID] will disappear” has aged well.
Topic:
Women, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16272. An Intelligence Agenda for a New Administration

Author:
Belfer Center
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
America’s Intelligence Community (IC) faces a daunting array of traditional national security challenges. Terrorism remains a persistent global problem in form of Islamic extremism as well as far-right nationalism. Russia, China and other nation state threats have become a higher priority after a long period of neglect. Regional conflicts simmer and occasionally boil over, reminding us that our agencies must provide global coverage. And we are now engaged in perpetual cyber conflict, with ambient digital espionage and conflict raging across global networks. At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic has shown us that there are other threats to national security which require our intelligence agencies to broaden their focus beyond the familiar threats that have defined their missions since inception. America’s intelligence agencies must be able to support our national response to the existential challenges of our time - pandemic and biothreats, climate change, and nuclear insecurity. Each represents a high probability and high consequence set of risks for the nation and the world. As a President-Elect Biden’s team prepares to assume power, it should examine: Independence: Has political interference degraded the IC’s capability to collect and protect intelligence, and has the IC’s independence and objectivity eroded? How can we ensure that political interference never degrades IC capabilities and objectives? Priorities: How well prepared is our Intelligence Community (IC) to play its role of providing warning, perspective and options in a new world of disinformation, pandemic and climate change? Keeping Pace: Has the IC’s ability to provide intelligence needed to keep America safe kept pace with the rapid changes in technology and society?
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America

16273. China’s National Carbon Market: Paradox and Potential

Author:
Cecilia Springer
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
China announced it would launch a national carbon market in 2017, yet this policy is taking years to come into effect. What will it take for a carbon market to work in command-and-control China? This policy brief explores an understudied challenge—emissions accounting—and identifies potential opportunities that have arisen in the first phase of China’s national carbon market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China and Asia-Pacific

16274. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries

Author:
Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
Middle East

16275. Technology Factsheet: Synthetic Biology

Author:
Colin O'Leary
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Synthetic biology (sometimes referred to as “SynBio”) is broadly defined as the application of engineering principles to biology, and in practice, refers to emerging technology that allows living organisms to be modified to serve user-defined purposes. While traditional biotechnology involves the transfer of smaller amounts of genetic material from one biological species to another, synthetic biology will permit the inten- tional construction of an entire organism.1 It has the potential to allow scientists to design living organisms distinct from any found in nature and to redesign existing organisms to have novel or enhanced qualities.2 The use cases of synthetic biology range from developing new therapeutics and vaccines for infectious disease to manufacturing novel biomaterials, biosensors, and biofuels. As scientists better understand biological systems, the potential applications of SynBio are anticipated to expand in scale and scope. The continued growth of the bioeconomy—defined as the “production, utilization and conservation of biological resources, including related knowledge, science, technology, and innovation, to provide information, products, processes and services across all economic sectors”—is giving space for synthetic biology technology to become a more significant part of the overall economic landscape.3 As with any technology that has a high potential for impact, SynBio presents a variety of pronounced opportunities, as well as risks. As the technology continues to mature and the number of market-ready applications grows, it is important for policymakers to consider how to promote the large number of opportunities the technology presents in the space of health and medicine, energy production, environmental recovery, food production, and more, while simultaneously protecting the public from foreseeable negative impli- cations and risks, such as weaponization, consumer safety, and ecological stability. Since synthetic biology bears significant similarities to previous biotechnology research on genetical- ly-modified organisms and recombinant DNA, existing regulations in the United States place the majority of synthetic biology products into the current biotechnology regulatory framework. As SynBio becomes more prominent though, it will be important for regulatory schemes to uniquely target the technology and its implications beyond those captured through biotechnology frameworks. Policymakers must continue to engage in the progression of the technology, understanding how regulation and governance must evolve to ensure the public can realize the opportunities, while being protected from the risks.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, and Biology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16276. Technology Factsheet: Quantum Computing

Author:
Akhil Iyer
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Quantum computing refers to the use of quantum properties—the properties of nature on an atomic scale—to solve complex problems much faster than conventional, or classical, computers. Quantum computers are not simply faster versions of conventional computers, though they are a fundamentally different computing paradigm due to their ability to leverage quantum mechanics. Harnessing quantum properties, namely the ability for the quantum computer bits (called “qubits”) to exist in multiple and interconnected states at one time, opens the door for highly parallel information processing with unprecedented new opportunities. Quantum computing could potentially be applied to solve important problems in fields such as cryptography, chemistry, medicine, material science, and machine learning that are computationally hard for conventional computers. Although it is still unclear which specific tasks can benefit from parallelized quantum processing, known as quantum parallelism, it is expected that solutions to a number of problems, especially those related to optimization, can be greatly accelerated by using a quantum computer. Though the field is still in its early stages, the anticipated opportunities offered by the unique computational power of quantum computers have attracted investment from not only research universities, but also startups, technology giants like Google, IBM and Microsoft, and directed investment by governments around the world. This cross-sectoral ecosystem has supported recent progress in underlying hardware, software, and algorithms necessary to make the computers work. The field has seen rapid advancement, however systems that can accomplish various kinds of computation, and especially those that can be commercially viable, are still likely to be decades away. There are expected to be some near- term applications on the horizon though, making quantum computing as relevant as ever. Currently, U.S. governance and regulation regarding quantum computing—a subset of the broader field of quantum information science, which also encompasses quantum communication and quantum sensing—focus on investments in the technical knowhow, collaborative research ecosystem, and human capital required to advance the technology. Given quantum computing’s potential for impact, especially in the fields of digital security, healthcare, energy, and machine learning and artificial intelligence, it is important for policymakers to understand the likely trajectories of the technology over the coming decades, as well as the pace of development both within the U.S. and abroad. Furthermore, policymakers must consider how to effectively promote the development, application and implementation of general-purpose quantum technologies to realize their larger economic and social benefits, while simultaneously mitigating foreseeable risks to privacy, safety, security, and inclusion.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
United States of America

16277. Should Regulators Make Electric Utilities Pay Customers for Poor Reliability?

Author:
Shefali Khanna and Kevin Rowe
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In September 2017, the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) required that the city’s regulated electricity distribution utilities pay compensation to customers experiencing power outages of three hours or longer. The measure was intended to incentivize the utilities to invest in the infrastructure and management practices needed to deliver higher levels of service quality. In 2019, India’s central government announced that it was considering rolling out a similar policy for utilities across the country. Can outage compensation policies help India’s power system achieve better reliability for all customers? This policy brief describes the persistent challenge of poor electricity reliability in India and how it interacts with key regulatory policies, analyzes Delhi’s experience with outage compensation since 2017, and highlights areas for additional economic and policy research on this topic.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Economic Policy, and Electricity
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific

16278. Systemic Racism: Why did violent protests erupt in the USA?

Author:
Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since May 25, the US has witnessed demonstrations in several cities due to killing of an African-American citizen. The escalation of events have led to acts of violence and vandalism, raising several questions around: the background of the protestors, their demands and their motives, and most importantly, whether such protests would in fact lead to a change in the institutional framework under which systemic racism has prevailed within the US.
Topic:
Social Justice, Protests, Police, Racism, Systemic Racism, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16279. Paradox of Relations: Russian - Turkish Relations in the Syrian and Libyan Fronts

Author:
Dania Koleilat Khatib and Aref Bijan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Over the last few years, Russia has emerged as a significant power broker and military actor in the Middle East. Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015 has revived its relations with neighboring countries. This increase in Russia's activity has led to convergence and divergence with other countries in the region. One of those countries is Turkey, which had cooperated at times and had differences at times with Russia in the Middle East, especially in the Syrian and the Libyan crises. Ankara and Moscow are fully engaged in the global competition trying to increase their power and influence. They face off in Syria and Libya. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebels in the North West while Russia supports the Assad regime. In Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia supports Libyan National Army (LNA). Their relation becomes more intricate as both parties got involved in the Caucus, a region of prime importance to both countries. In the vicinity of Russia, the oil route goes Tbilisi-Baku ending up in Ceyhan Turkey. While Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Russia supports Armenia. The Caucus crisis showed how the two countries are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other on a quid pro quo basis. The cease happened concurrently with a partial withdrawal of Turkey from some posts in the North West in Syria. Was there an agreement between Erdogan and Putin in this regard? There are no proofs; however, the various events that are happening from the Caucus to North Africa suggest that those two powers are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other. To add to that, the American retrenchment has encouraged the two powers to flex their muscles in the region. Therefore, given the developments in the region, this article has tried to examine the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations and their strategy in Libya and Syria.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

16280. The European Defence Fund and Norway

Author:
Karsten Friis
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The establishment of the European Defence Fund (EDF) represents an important step towards a more coherent European security architecture. It is broadly recognised that Europe needs to reduce duplication between, as well as the number of, weapons systems and platforms. The EU recently opened up for associated countries to participate in the Fund, but the Norwegian government has failed to set aside money for the EDF, despite official policy to participate.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway