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16802. Explaining How Washington and the Election Works
- Author:
- Sean David Hobbs
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- In 2016, all predictions about the U.S. elections were wrong. Will Washington insiders get it right this time?
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Models
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16803. Sustainable Humanism Needed
- Author:
- Peter J. Jacques
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has become a central election issue, but to overcome this urgent health crisis America needs to tune out the echo chambers that repeat medical misinformation and conspiracies.
- Topic:
- Elections, Public Health, Sustainability, Pandemic, COVID-19, Misinformation, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16804. Abortion and the Political Futures of Women’s Rights
- Author:
- Andrew Delatolla
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Gender and women’s rights have been divisive issues in U.S. domestic politics, particularly when it comes to abortion. How has the Trump administration handled these issues and will the 2020 U.S. election serve as a continuation of these policies?
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Health, Governance, Elections, Women, Feminism, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16805. Anatomy of a Revolution
- Author:
- Sydney Wise
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The fight against racialized violence in the U.S. prison and policing system has characterized the last fifty years of the struggle for racial justice. In 2020, new momentum marks a historic moment.
- Topic:
- Race, Discrimination, Social Justice, Violence, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16806. Resisting the Tide of Bigotry
- Author:
- Jonathan Weisman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- American Jews are left divided and looking for new directions as Donald Trump embraces the white supremacism of the alt-right and the Zionism of Benjamin Netanyahu
- Topic:
- Religion, Radicalization, Domestic Politics, Judaism, Discrimination, and Radical Right
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
16807. The World Is Watching the United States
- Author:
- Diana Bartelli Carlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The United States is facing a perfect storm that puts it in the headlights of its counterparts’ world views.
- Topic:
- Governance, Radicalization, Leadership, Discrimination, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Racism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16808. What does a Trump or Biden presidency mean for Israel and Palestine?
- Author:
- Khaled Elgindy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Next month’s election may be instrumental in salvaging what hope remains for a two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Elections, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
16809. Arabs Try to Make Sense of What is Happening in the United States
- Author:
- Dania El Akkawi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How have contentious domestic crises in the United States impacted the Arab world’s perception of the global leader?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16810. Turkish Airlines: An International Strategic Instrument for Turkey
- Author:
- Julien Lebel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Turkey has undergone significant transformations since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, as illustrated by the notable growth of its airline industry. Turkish Airlines (THY) is the main company based in the country, and has dramatically extended its network of destinations in the past 15 years. It benefits from the support of the national authorities, who consider the carrier as a strategic instrument in consolidating Turkey’s influence internationally and in building solid cooperation with foreignStates in different fields. Meanwhile, the opening of a new airport in Istanbul at the end of 2018 emphasises the ambition displayed by the government to make the country a major global hub, competing with airport hubs in Western Europe, and especially in certain Gulf States.
- Topic:
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Airline Companies, Political Parties, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
16811. Perspectives on a Hydrogen Strategy for the European Union
- Author:
- Cédric Philibert
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- There is now a wide understanding that larger use of clean hydrogen in future can be an important mean to achieve decarbonisation of the European economy. A robust, cost-effective European hydrogen strategy could become a pillar of an EU economic recovery plan which should, in line with the Green Deal, accelerate the decarbonization of European economies. The challenge for the upcoming EU strategy is to identify the most important future uses of cost-effective clean hydrogen, ensure sound scale-up through efficient public support schemes and system approaches driving significant cost reductions. Opportunities to maximise the economic benefits for the European economy in terms of jobs, value creation and competitiveness will also matter. And, of course, effective decarbonisation. The European hydrogen industry is now largely ripe for a progressive scale up that needs to be planned for the coming 20 years. While clean hydrogen will be indispensable, it comes with technical and economic challenges. There is an undisputed potential for decrease, but costs and availability of energy inputs, as well as transport and distribution systems, and an enabling policy environment, matter as much or more than simple scale-up. The EU will have to take stock of strategies developed by other countries. Japan and South Korea have robust industrial strategies that push carbon intensive hydrogen in the automotive, residential and power sectors with strong public support. Decarbonization is not always the primary objective. The current demand for hydrogen in fuel refineries and to produce ammonia and methanol for agriculture, mining and industry purposes figures at the top of the possible demand for clean hydrogen. Moreover, steel making in the industrial sub-sector is most likely to create considerable demand for clean hydrogen in complement to scrap recycling. In the transport sector, clean hydrogen could be primarily used for long-haul trucking and coaches. European products exist and deployment is already underway. Long-haul trucks and coaches may demand significant amounts of clean hydrogen, with some complements from other terrestrial transport means although the European carmakers prioritise battery electric cars and light duty vehicles. For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and supporting infrastructures the challenge is of cost reduction through upscaling and mass production. Deep sea shipping is a sub-sector in which ammonia as a fuel is most likely to generate considerable additional demand for hydrogen. Aviation is a sub-sector that may call for large amounts of clean hydrogen in various forms unless offsetting emissions with verifiable carbon storage is available at scale and more competitive. Clean hydrogen may be used to achieve full decarbonisation of the power sector as an inter-seasonal option, via sector coupling with the gas infrastructure – but this will probably not be needed before 2035. Clean hydrogen can mainly be produced from electrolysis of water with low carbon electricity generation, from natural gas steam reforming with carbon capture and storage, and from natural gas pyrolysis. The clean hydrogen production comes with costs/challenges: hence why future demand must be carefully identified and prioritised. A sound hydrogen strategy for the EU should initially: Assess all available reference studies and international developments in terms of system benefits and costs, certainties and uncertainties, primary and secondary priorities, timelines as well as strengths and weaknesses of the European industry; Deploy progressively and cost-efficiently clean hydrogen for the applications where it has a potential proven advantage over competing solutions for decarbonisation to evaluate merit in terms of EUR/CO2 of each application under different assumptions; Support hydrogen clusters at city or territorial/ regional levels were production, demand and distribution can be effectively organized into systems that allow scale up, job creations, cost reductions and decarbonisation; Organize the scale up of demand and competition over supplies via regulation, IPCEIs in providing clarity over future needs/timelines; Develop roadmaps and demonstration projects for clean hydrogen-based solutions where the possibility of hydrogen proving a superior solution for decarbonisation is high enough; Protect EU hydrogen industry stakeholders at all levels and seizes from external takeovers; Ensure a level playing field for clean-hydrogen and hydrogen-rich fuels and feedstocks both within the EU and externally when there is a global market and competition, via regulatory tools and/or via a carbon border adjustment mechanism.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, Hydrogen, Green Deal, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16812. Migrant and Refugee Participation: Approaches to Rethinking Integration Policies
- Author:
- Sophie Bilong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- In France, people participating in policies and programs that affect them is not a new concept. It has been widely studied in the field of social work and the fight against poverty, and is at the heart of many experiments. How can this concept of participation, as is outlined for people experiencing poverty, be applied to refugees and migrants? Does the participation of refugees and migrants present specific characteristics? The aim of this study is to take stock of the issue of refugee and migrant participation, which is often discussed, but has not been systematically studied in France. Employees, professionals, volunteers, activists, beneficiaries of programs who are also involved in running them, organization leaders, representatives of local authorities and institutions, and founders of non-profit organizations with experience of migration were interviewed. They described the experiences of refugee and migrant participation at work within their organizations, the motivation of the people who implemented them and the difficulties encountered. While many organizations (nonprofit organizations, groups of volunteers, local authorities) are convinced that refugee and migrant participation is key to the success of reception and integration programs and public policies, so far, few initiatives have been developed with them based on their expertise. Programs offered to new arrivals in France are often developed in advance by people who have no experience of migration without involving migrants and refugees. The participation of migrants and refugees indeed faces many obstacles and limits. This study also proposes to identify methodological elements in the form of advice for those working on the field. These will help identify ways of overcoming the difficulties encountered in the implementation of participation mechanisms, or, perhaps, provide useful ideas for initiating action-taking capacity development processes for individuals in need of support. Finally, this study identifies measures that aim to support and consolidate initiatives promoting migrant and refugee participation, that encourage new structures to experiment with them, and that enable public authorities to become more involved in the issue and eventually enshrine the necessity and relevance of participation in the law making process.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16813. One Year of Zelensky’s Presidency: One Step Forward, One Step Back
- Author:
- Leonid Litra and Alyona Getmanchuk
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The election of Volodymyr Zelensky as president of Ukraine created very high expectations in the society. He built his campaign narrative around three central messages: peace in Donbas, the curtailment of corruption and the end of poverty. The hope that he could deliver on his promises was strengthened with the victory of his party (Servant of the People) in the snap parliamentary elections in summer 2019. It is the first time in the history of independent Ukraine that a single party has a majority in parliament. Therefore, President Zelensky enjoys unprecedented conditions, and, while he still has four years in office, the one-year anniversary is the right moment to make the first assessment.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Volodymyr Zelensky
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
16814. The Renovation Wave: A Make or Break for the European Green Deal
- Author:
- Thibaud Voïta
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- European buildings are old and too often inefficient, past policies have not delivered and the amount of investment into energy efficiency must be scaled up dramatically to meet the 2030 targets and ultimately, the carbon neutrality objective. Building renovations are too slow and insufficient. The European Union (EU) and its Member States (MS) need to critically accelerate its efforts, for instance by multiplying by up to 4 the number of deep building renovations every year. Why is the renovation market so difficult to kick-start? The sector is extremely complex, with number of different buildings, regulations and actors, at all levels, from the European to the local one. This means that coordination of the different stakeholders is a major challenge. In addition, building renovation policies may be slowed down by some of the traditional European weaknesses: lengthy processes, different interests of lobbying groups, weak implementation of the regulations, a lack of knowledge or trust from the tenant or home-owners, financing and technology issues, etc. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic though. Regulations have accelerated energy efficiency investments in buildings over the past decade, despite the 2008 crisis, and altogether, household energy efficiency has improved of approximately 30% since 2000. Some innovative and promising policies are being implemented in many countries. The call of Ursula von der Leyen to establish a European Bauhaus points to new creative and efficient ways to promote building renovation across the continent. The construction sector needs clear signals on the future of the building renovation market in order to adapt its training strategies with less emphasis on new building and more on renovation. Lastly, the Renovation Wave cannot succeed without a sustained effort to ramp up skills and the number of qualified jobs in this sector, with state-of-the art technologies becoming a standard all across the EU, alongside the use of low carbon and ideally, sustainable renovation materials.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Green Deal, and Energy Efficiency
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16815. Technology Strategies in China and the United States, and the Challenges for European Companies
- Author:
- Laurence Nardon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- As international relations are increasingly reorganized around the US-China rivalry, the tensions between these two great powers are shaping a growing number of sectors, and the exchange of sensitive technologies in particular. This is a critical issue for European companies today. Indeed, European companies, as manufacturers, importers and exporters, risk finding themselves at the heart of the deepening technological competition opposing the United States and China (Éric-André Martin). The United States has a long history of using multiple regulatory instruments in managing the export of dual-use technologies, in particular towards China. Even beyond the Trump administration’s aggressive positions, these regulations are expanding and increasingly strict, hinting at a potential protectionist technological warfare (Pierre Girard). Despite China’s progress in innovation (5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things), and an expansion of measures meant to protect intellectual property rights both for domestic and foreign firms, Beijing’s predatory industrial practices and the weight of the Chinese Communist Party on the economy and society clearly live on (John Seaman). French and European companies are thus hindered both by the prohibition of re-exporting American technologies and products enacted by Washington and by Beijing’s predatory practices. How much leeway do European companies have? What role should the European Union (EU) play in the face of such challenges? Since 2016, new propositions to reform the EU export-control regime regulating dual-use items are being intensely debated (Sofia Bournou). The three chapters of this report examine the norms currently in place in the United States, China, and Europe, and delve more deeply into specific case studies: the battle between the Trump administration and Huawei (Marion Welles), the problems facing European companies in China (Laurence Nardon and Mathilde Velliet), and the case of the communications satellites (Jean-François Bureau). The conclusion of this report draws up a list – of great interest for decision-makers – of the infrastructures and technologies that will be critical for European strategic autonomy in the years to come (André Loesekrug-Pietri).
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Internet, and 5G
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
16816. Prospects of a Hydrogen Economy with Chinese Characteristics
- Author:
- Kevin Tu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the prospects of a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. Against the backdrop of an escalating US-China trade war and the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, key Chinese stakeholders become increasingly interested in moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward. During the first six months of 2020 alone, 37 policies in support of the hydrogen economy have been published by various level governments, including 7 by central government authorities, and 30 by local governments. Shandong alone issued 6 hydrogen supporting policies, followed with 5 by Guangdong. In sum, hydrogen economy development not only gains traction in China, but also is in great danger of overheating. The ambition in China is to expand hydrogen production and create new end-uses: in the transport segment (e.g. 1 million fuel cell electric vehicles – FCEVs – and 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations by 2030), but possibly also, in other hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement manufacturing or in the electricity storage segment (Power to X). Hydrogen production from low carbon electricity could bring many benefits, notably to address curtailments of renewable electricity from wind, solar and hydro. It could also be blended into the nation-wide gas grid especially for low-concentration hydrogen (e.g. 5-10%). Until recently, China’s interest in developing the hydrogen economy has not been primarily triggered by the decarbonization objective. Nevertheless, on September 22, 2020, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced that China aims to peak national carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Given the significant amount of carbon emissions reduction implied by the above announcement, hydrogen is now expected to play a much more important role to drastically decrease the country’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) over time. China’s very large hydrogen production from fossil fuels, mainly coal, would make it quite challenging to consider decarbonizing the current uses of hydrogen. What decisively drives the current interest into hydrogen is innovation and technological leadership on the one hand, which China can achieve through industrial clusters and economies of scale, and energy security on the other: reducing dependence on imported oil and gas, with rising importance of air pollution control- and decarbonization-related considerations. It remains to be seen whether China can avoid the shortcomings of its electric vehicles (EV) supporting policies as it aims to boost a hydrogen economy with Chinese characteristics. A simplified SWOT analysis presented in the report identifies the most important strength, weakness, opportunity and threat for hydrogen economy development in China: Strength - ability to significantly bring down unit manufacturing cost through industrial network clustering and economy of scale. Weakness – lag far behind advanced economies in key hydrogen-related technologies. Opportunity – enthusiasm on hydrogen economy by local governments against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. Threat - looming danger of global supply chain decoupling caused by an escalating US-China trade war. In order to move the hydrogen economy agenda forward, a preliminary “to do list” for Chinese decision-makers in this field would include: A coordinated national mechanism should be established at the central government level to lay out principles for moving the hydrogen economy agenda forward in China. Comprehensive and transparent statistical reporting and accounting throughout the Chinese hydrogen value chain should be established. In the hydrogen production segment, renewable hydrogen should be prioritized for intensive Research and Development (R&D) and deployment in the near future, and greening China's existing hydrogen flow should be on the Chinese government's policy radar especially in the longer term. In the hydrogen storage and transport segment, national and local government should continuously direct subsidies towards hydrogen refueling stations, and also consider to encourage low concentration blending of hydrogen into China’s natural gas network. In the hydrogen consumption segment, China should selectively focus on R&D and deployment of advanced hydrogen end-use technologies notably for cement and steel, ideally coupled with expansion of the horizon of national energy planning framework. Opening up the Chinese market to better integrate technology innovations in advanced economies and manufacturing-related competitive advantages of the Chinese economy, aiming to create a win-win situation between China and the international community.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economy, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
16817. Israel-Africa Relations: What Can We Learn from the Netanyahu Decade?
- Author:
- Benjamin Augé
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Since he came to power in 2009, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not made Israeli-African relations a priority in his foreign policy. After they broke off diplomatic relations with Israel following the Yom Kippur War in 1973, most African states – besides Malawi, South Africa (apart from between 1975 and 1979), Swaziland and Lesotho – finally resumed relations with the Jewish state during the 1980s and 1990s and more recently for some others. The resumption of diplomatic ties was gradual, as peace efforts were initiated regarding Palestine. Israel now enjoys diplomatic relations with more than 40 sub-Saharan African states, but only has 12 embassies throughout the entire continent, including in Cairo. The last ones to be opened were in Kigali (Rwanda) in 2019 and Accra (Ghana) in 2011. The Israeli government today views Africa either as a longstanding sphere of influence (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Uganda and for the last two decades Rwanda) that needs to be strengthened, or as a new sphere of influence to be developed (the Sahel countries, central Africa, etc.) These relations operate through various conventional channels, including some that have been significantly weakened by Benjamin Netanyahu when he was Israeli prime minister between 1996 and 1999 and since 2009. This is particularly true for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its counterpart, Mashav, responsible for development cooperation. However, the security and intelligence sectors (Mossad), controlled by the Prime Minister’s Office, are strong drivers of Israeli foreign policy, hence Benjamin Netanyahu’s dominance over foreign affairs in general, and Africa in particular. The objective of this paper is to explain how political, economic and security relationships between Africa and Israel have developed in practice during the decade 2009-2020. The aim here is to go beyond a mere account of the history of these relationships. Since 2009, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – still in power at the time of writing – has frequently talked about his country’s return to the African stage, without necessarily providing his government with the financial resources to achieve this.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and Israel
16818. Israeli Cyberpower: The Unfinished Development of the Start-up Nation?
- Author:
- Thierry Noël
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s economic success in the cyber sector is undeniable. It is due to the development of an ecosystem encouraging the mastery of digital innovation. It is supported by proactive digital diplomacy and underpinned by unmatched military cybercapabilities in the region. However, its rapid growth exposes structural weaknesses from an economic point of view and raises questions about the role that Israeli democracy seeks to play on the world stage.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
16819. GovTech, The New Frontier in Digital Sovereignty
- Author:
- Clément Tonon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 crisis has been a catalyst for a surge in the GovTech market, while triggering debate around the use of new technologies in the public health response to the pandemic. More broadly, the health crisis has shed a new light on the strategic importance of some domains relevant to GovTech such as HealthTech, smart cities and EdTech. The French State has developed a comprehensive policy of government digitization but still suffers from a lack of investment in the GovTech sector: so far, it has been unable to nurture a GovTech ecosystem comparable to the French defense technological and industrial base. At the European level, the rise of GovTech solutions could deepen existing divides between member states, as shown by the uncoordinated development of tracing apps by European countries during the crisis. In the long run, the lack of European industrial and political strategy focusing on GovTech could turn Europe into a battleground for Chinese and American actors, which benefit from governmental support at home and abroad. The rise of GovTech companies challenges deeply rooted ideas on the meaning of the public sector and the role of the State. It underlines how technology can affect the values and core principles of democratic societies. In that sense, the growing technological competition between the US, China and Europe means much more than economic rivalry: it is a real threat to European democracy and strategic autonomy.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, COVID-19, Digital Policy, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, France, Estonia, Singapore, and United States of America
16820. Current and Future Trends in Chinese Counterspace Capabilities
- Author:
- Brian Weeden
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- China is in the midst of a long-term effort to develop a world-class space program with a strong military and national security component. Since 2015, Chinese official and unofficial writings have increasingly emphasized the importance of space warfare, including for offensive and coercive uses. In parallel, China has engaged in a significant and dedicated effort to develop a wide array of destructive and non-destructive offensive counterspace capabilities since the early 2000s, some of which are – or soon will become – operational. This study explores the multiple areas of Chinese counterspace capability developments, from co-orbital rendezvous operations to direct ascent antisatellite interceptors and electronic and cyber warfare. It summarizes what is known about current programs, offers estimates regarding the unique characteristics of each capability area and how advanced Chinese capabilities are in each field. While China’s search for a large array of counterspace capabilities is not unique, it could both directly and indirectly affect U.S. and European strategic interests and thus has vast implications for transatlantic security.
- Topic:
- National Security, Space, Satellite, and Military
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
16821. Towards a More Principled European China Policy?
- Author:
- Stephan Frühling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Promoting political values (democracy, human rights and the rule of law) in China is a colossal undertaking, but the EU could be more effective than we think. To do so, it must act strategically, in unity, and in concert with like-minded partners. It must also strengthen its record of upholding political values and reform its procedures for foreign policy decision-making. On 30 June 2020, China adopted a National Security Law for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that not only undermines human rights and the rule of law that were promised to its citizens, but also violates international law. A few weeks before, when China’s intention became public, the European Union reacted cautiously, expressing concern but clarifying that the introduction of the law would not adversely affect its relations with China. The EU’s first reaction fell far short of statements released by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, among others. But the EU’s reaction grew more critical over time. The first EU institution to adopt a tougher approach was the European Parliament. Shortly after, the European Commission and – to a lesser extent – the European Council followed with statements by its presidents after the EU-China summit held on 22 June 2020. This episode could turn out to be exemplary for the role of political values in the European Union’s relations with China. China and Europe have fundamentally divergent political values, even though they often use the same terminology. For a long time, many Europeans believed that China’s definition of democracy, human rights and the rule of law –, the three constitutive values enshrined in the Treaty of the European Union – would ultimately converge with the European understanding. This has not turned out to be the case. China is growing more self-confident, not only defending but starting to spread its own definitions of the triad of political values. This comes at a time when the EU is realigning its China policy more generally. The new European Commission strives to be a “geopolitical” entity strategically engaging to achieve concrete results in its bilateral relations with China. The starting point of this shift is the 2019 “Strategic Outlook” developed by the European External Action Service, which defines China not only as a “partner”, but also a “competitor” and a “systemic rival”. On political values, China clearly is a “systemic rival”. The crucial question is whether “systemic rivalry” in the field of political values carries implications for other policy fields in which the EU and China are partners or competitors. A general consensus that the EU should adopt a more principled China policy and defend and promote its political values spells out very differently across EU institutions. By institutional design, the European Council is a pragmatic rather than principled institution. Compromise resulting from bargaining among member states with different interests shapes its approach. At the other end of the spectrum, the European Parliament serves a principled watchdog function, but has very limited competencies in foreign and security affairs. The European Commission strives to overcome the decades-old challenge of policy silos resulting from its fragmented institutional structure and the more than 60 sectoral dialogues with China. This carries the potential to turn more principled. However, to this day it is not clear whether the European Commission will make the promotion of political values a policy priority even if this comes at the cost of economic cooperation. This paper outlines ongoing debates on the EU’s new China policy and the role of political values in it, and provides 25 concrete policy recommendations for a more principled China policy that defends and promotes democracy, human rights and the rule of law.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Democracy, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
16822. The Outsider: Russia in the Race for Artificial Intelligence
- Author:
- Julien Nocetti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- When analyzing the global state of play around artificial intelligence (AI), Russia so far looks like an “outsider” compared to the two technological leaders, the United States and China. Yet, like the European Union, Russia exhibits two apparently contradictory but fundamental trends: it is trying to reap the benefits of technological interdependence—digital, scientific, financial etc.—while also protecting its internal market and thereby achieving the “technological sovereignty” it so ardently desires. Russia’s state-led approach is compounded by the same problems that afflict Russia in the conventional digital sector: lack of investment, weak integration into international scientific and normative networks, political pressure on private companies, dependence on global technological value chains and brain drain. Might these factors lead us to underestimate Moscow’s potential in AI? This paper argues that although these weaknesses are significant, continue to hold Russia back and threaten to amplify pre-existing asymmetries of power with the United States and China, Moscow intends to preserve niches of expertise that it can deploy in foreign policy and domestic governance. The Russian authorities have also handed big parts of AI development to the armed forces and the defense industry, as part of modernization plans and for asymmetric use.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
16823. How the French Understand Immigrant Integration and Citizenship
- Author:
- Christophe Bertossi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- On December 9, 2020 will be celebrated the 115th anniversary of the 1905 law on French secularism (laïcité). On the very same day, a new law project will be presented by the French government, with the objective of further strengthening the “republican values” in order to fight against so-called “Islamist separatism” within French society. This dramatic emphasis on France’s political tradition of universalism and secularism is difficult to understand outside France. Such misunderstanding created a situation unseen before whereby a sitting French president replied to an online column published in the Financial Times (which was eventually withdrawn from the FT website), and phoned Ben Smith, a NYTimes journalist, and complained about the US media coverage of the 2020 terrorist attacks in France. It seems that the French model of immigrant integration and citizenship is difficult to understand outside France, even more so at a time when France is once again the target of jihadist terrorism and responds to this challenge with a dramatic emphasis on its national political tradition of universalism and secularism – what the French refer to in terms of laïcité. In order to address this misunderstanding, this research proposes to analyze 10 terms that have been central to French debates on immigration and citizenship, namely: integration, communalism (communautarisme), secularism (laïcité), discrimination, Islam, citizenship, migrant, migration crisis, the nation-state, and Europe. The lexicographic application Ngram Viewer is used for each of these terms in order to show evolutions over time. These evolutions are part of what needs to be understood. Behind these evolutions, the analysis emphasizes ambiguities and a plurality of meanings surrounding the vocabulary of the French political tradition, and the subsequent misunderstandings these ambiguities and multiple meanings generate not only between French and international observers but also within French society. A related claim is that evolutions that can be identified in French political and public debates about immigrant integration are not specific to France but are part of a broader transformation that concerns all Western countries in their relation to immigration, ethnicity and Islam.
- Topic:
- Islam, Immigration, Secularism, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
16824. Ukraine’s European Integration: The Russian Factor
- Author:
- Hanna Pashkova and Halyna Balanovych
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The pace and effectiveness of Kyiv’s European integration course depends on many internal and external factors. The key ones being the political will of Ukrainian government, ability to implement and dedication to real pro-European changes in the country that would be tangible for Ukrainian citizens. This is the internal factor that is the main issue on the path to integration into the European community. That being said, European integration is a two-way street. The quality and level of Kyiv-Brussels relations to a great extent depend on the position and engagement of the European side, including EU’s internal processes and trends, which are rather complex, controversial and sometimes centrifugal in their nature at the moment. We are talking about an increased sentiment of restoring partnerships with Russia in the “business as usual” format inside the EU’s business and political circles. Russian hybrid aggression is a dangerous factor. For the Russian leadership that views post-Soviet countries as its zone of “privileged” interest, an independent Ukraine headed towards Europe and NATO is both a challenge and a threat. Firstly, Kyiv’s successful European integration is an incentive for other post-Soviet countries to step up, which means a failure for Russia’s plans of “forced” reintegration of Eurasian countries. Secondly, Kyiv achieving success in its European project is a model for Russian citizens and a convincing evidence of the inability of Russia’s authoritarian regime to offer an attractive democratic model of social development. This is why the Russian regime is using all of its available “hybrid warfare” to prevent Ukraine from integrating into Europe – from political and diplomatic pressure, economic blockade, information warfare to military intervention – occupation of Crimea and Donbas. Currently, Ukraine is a training ground and a testing area for Russia’s massive purposeful expansion into the EU territory. In particular, this includes discrediting the unifying European values and institutions, disorienting public opinion, interfering with elections, formation of pro-Russian lobby within the European establishment, support of radical movements, etc. The goal of this influence is to disintegrate the EU, reform Europe’s political system in line with the Russian scenario. An important factor is the EU member states’, institutions’ and other countries’ assistance and solidarity with Ukraine, as well as sanctions introduced by the West. Regrettably, over the period of almost six years, the sanctions have failed to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, failed to change the nature of Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy. Yet it is certainly crucial that the EU and other countries uphold a common course of conduct in regard to Russia, maintain and strengthen the “sanctions frontline”. At the same time, assessing the current confrontation in the notional Ukraine-EU-Russia “triangle”, it is worth noting that these problems have been temporarily overshadowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic. On the one hand, the pandemic has affected internal and external priorities of different countries, has shaken the global economy. On the other – it has “hit the pause button” for Ukraine’s European integration, made adjustments to EU-Ukraine Association Agreement implementation plans. Obviously, the problems that have been temporarily postponed will later resurface again – this time in the new circumstances and in the new form.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Conflict, Regional Integration, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
16825. Evolving News Media Landscapes in India and Pakistan: Implications for regional peace and stability
- Author:
- Jonathan Fulton
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Saudi Arabia. Over the past three decades, the bilateral relationship has transitioned from one of marginal importance for both countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership, largely on the back of a trade relationship founded on energy. This report begins with a brief historical overview of Sino-Saudi relations, describing how the two countries transitioned from mutual hostility to diplomatic relations, and then how political and economic cooperation strengthened the relationship to the point that they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016. It then discusses how the partnership has developed through the 1+2+3 cooperation pattern, especially through projects linking China’s Digital Silk Road with Saudi vision 2030, as well as nascent levels of security cooperation. It ends with an analysis of the bi- lateral relationship within the context of the US-Sino-Saudi triangle: How does it affect each state’s larger strategic interests, and can issues where their interests diverge put a ceiling on future Sino-Saudi ties?
- Topic:
- Media, Political stability, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
16826. Strangers to strategic partners: Thirty years of Sino-Saudi relations
- Author:
- Jonathan Fulton
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Saudi Arabia. Over the past three decades, the bilateral relationship has transitioned from one of marginal importance for both countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership, largely on the back of a trade relationship founded on energy. This report begins with a brief historical overview of Sino-Saudi relations, describing how the two countries transitioned from mutual hostility to diplomatic relations, and then how political and economic cooperation strengthened the relationship to the point that they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016. It then discusses how the partnership has developed through the 1+2+3 cooperation pattern, especially through projects linking China’s Digital Silk Road with Saudi vision 2030, as well as nascent levels of security cooperation. It ends with an analysis of the bi- lateral relationship within the context of the US-Sino-Saudi triangle: How does it affect each state’s larger strategic interests, and can issues where their interests diverge put a ceiling on future Sino-Saudi ties?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Business, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
16827. Transforming Indian agriculture: A policy framework to guide US-India partnership
- Author:
- D. Narain
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Agriculture has formed the backbone of India’s economy for many decades and remains crucial to providing food security for the country’s growing population. It constitutes a major pillar of India’s economic growth and a significant contributor to its growing exports sector. Indian agriculture is the country’s largest employer with one hundred and forty million smallholder farmers and an additional sixty million people employed directly or indirectly in farming operations. Together, these two hundred million people represent more than 40 percent of India’s working population. Though India is one of the top five agricultural economies in the world, Indian agriculture is at a serious inflection point. This sector faces multiple challenges, including lagging yields in key crops as compared to global averages1, restricted market access, lack of competitive prices for produce, and limited water availability. The latter leaves farmers to rely on rain-fed agriculture severely impacted by climate change. All these factors have eroded farm incomes, created increased pressure on government subsidies, and affected rural livelihoods. The growth and success of agriculture is important for India’s long-term economic growth, enhancing its global and export competitiveness, improving rural livelihoods, and creating a sustainable agricultural eco-system. This brief outlines the policy framework required to make these goals a reality. In order to build effectively on these amendments, India needs a broader set of policy reforms targeting everything from farm input to output in order to facilitate a complete transformation of Indian agriculture. In addition to policy reforms, the transformation requires strong collaboration among all players in the agri-value chain to achieve three key goals: To help Indian farmers increase crop productivity with better yields per hectare of cultivable land. This has to be done while driving sustainable agricultural practices including water conservation and improved soil health. To enhance farm profitability and generate sustainable farm incomes. To deliver rural prosperity by helping job creation and creating better lives for farming communities.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
16828. The trip from Donbas: Ukraine’s pressing need to defend its veterans
- Author:
- Lauren Van Metre and John Boerstler
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The war in the Donbas is entering its sixth year no less violent, and no closer to a peace agreement, than when it began. When Russia invaded in 2014, the Ukrainian army was wholly unprepared. Many officers were corrupt, had long-standing relations with the Russian military from their days in the Soviet army, and lacked combat experience.1 Maidan revolutionaries became volunteer soldiers, and private-security-turned-militia groups sped to the front to stop the Russia-led separatist offensive. Six years later, Ukraine struggles to care for and reintegrate the 385,000 Donbas veterans and volunteer combatants, thirteen thousand of whom are legally disabled.2 A lack of support for veterans creates a critical void in Ukraine’s national security and hobbles its transition to democracy. Ukraine’s new Ministry of Veterans Affairs (MVA) consolidates approximately twenty disparate social services for veterans. With its establishment, politicians and civil society leaders agree that the country needs a comprehensive strategy for veterans care. The lack of care exacerbates several crises confronting veterans, including high rates of suicide, under- and unemployment, divorce, and domestic violence.3 It also leaves them alone to counter disinformation targeted at veterans by Russia. They are also vulnerable to recruitment by right-wing and oligarch-sponsored security services, as they seek employment and to recreate the unit solidarity of the front.4 An unfit veterans support network that provides little care risks veterans’ political and social disaffection, declining levels of recruitment and retention for the military, and the fracturing of families. Setting up a responsive veterans care system furthers Ukraine’s democratic transition. Citizen soldiers make up half of the army’s recruits. Architects, engineers, teachers, accountants—citizens from all walks of Ukrainian life—enlist on a regular basis for time at the front. The Ministry of Veterans Affairs needs to reinforce Ukraine’s emerging democratic political culture that honors citizen service and places constituent needs at the heart of governance. Care and protection for Ukraine’s veterans is also in the strategic interest of the United States, the European Union, and NATO, which seek a peaceful, stable, and undivided Europe. NATO continues to support Ukraine’s efforts to bring its security and defense sector closer to Alliance standards and practices, including strengthening civilian control and democratic oversight over the sector, improving planning and budgeting processes, and reforming the nation’s security services. Reform of Ukraine’s veterans policies bolsters NATO efforts by providing a roadmap for civilian oversight of veterans affairs and security service reform in the form of post-deployment transition and reintegration support for soldiers. A robust, comprehensive veterans support program aids recruitment and retention, leading to a stronger Ukrainian military more prepared for its combat operations in the east—a war whose outcome will determine European security for decades.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Veterans
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Donbas
16829. Enhancing US-Japan cooperation on clean energy technologies
- Author:
- Reed Blakemore and David W. Yellen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Japan’s October 2020 pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 presents an opportunity to expand the robust US-Japan energy partnership into additional clean energy areas. But with a stark divide on energy policy in the United States, how can the US-Japan energy partnership appeal to disparate visions of the energy transition and be politically durable? In the wake of Japan’s net-zero announcement, the Global Energy Center is launching this new report, “Enhancing US-Japan cooperation on clean energy technologies,” which explores how the United States and Japan can increase the politically durable foundation for clean energy cooperation in their already robust energy partnership. Reed Blakemore and David W. Yellen analyze which technologies could form such a foundation, and they recommend that the two countries prioritize technologies that address three interrelated goals: enhancing energy security and resilience, becoming more competitive and spurring economic growth, and reducing remissions. The report suggests a path forward for the United States and Japan, not only to expand bilateral clean energy cooperation, but also to lay the groundwork for a broader Indo-Pacific partnership on clean energy markets and technologies.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Environment, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Asia, North America, and United States of America
16830. Colombia’s shale resource potential
- Author:
- John D. Padilla
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Oil and gas production is a significant driver of Colombia’s economic growth. With decreased conventional hydrocarbon production in recent years, unconventional shale resources could provide additional revenues from the sector and stimulate growth as the country recovers from COVID-19. But care must be taken to ensure that shale production is environmentally sound and that royalties reach local communities. As the Iván Duque administration prepares to award investigative pilot projects (PPIIs) for shale development in November 2020, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and Global Energy Center launched on October 29 the report “Colombia’s Shale Resource Potential,” the second in the Global Energy Center’s Future of Shale series. In the report, John D. Padilla explores the necessary conditions for successful shale development in Colombia. He analyzes key global and local factors that will determine whether the country’s abundant shale resources can be developed safely and sustainably. The new report argues that the most important factors that will support sustainable shale development are political will, legal certainty, and a robust, yet flexible, regulatory framework for PPIIs.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
16831. Renewing transatlantic strategy on Iran
- Author:
- Ellie Geranmayeh, Barbara Slavin, and Sahil Shah
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The election of former Vice President Joe Biden in the United States presents the prospect of major changes in US foreign policy, especially toward Iran. These changes cannot begin to be implemented until after Inauguration Day in January of the new year, while an urgent need exists for other players to bridge the gap. None are better suited to this task than the US’s closest allies in Europe which have already played a significant role in the negotiations that led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Britain, France and Germany – the E-3 – and the European Union have also worked tirelessly to keep the JCPOA alive in the face of the unilateral US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, the imposition of draconian sanctions by the Trump administration and escalating tensions in the Middle East. A new report by Ellie Geranmayeh, Barbara Slavin, and Sahil Shah presents a series of recommendations for the E-3 and the EU to preserve the JCPOA, promote regional peace and development and boost people-to-people contacts with Iran in concert with the new US administration. Taken together, these steps would amount to a renewed transatlantic diplomatic agenda through which the United States and European allies can stabilize the nuclear file and then build on the resulting diplomatic momentum to address other concerns with Iran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
16832. African agency in the new Cold War: Traditional power competition in the post-COVID-19 African landscape
- Author:
- Bronwyn Bruton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, a handful of powers have been able to exert influence across the whole of the African continent: the United States, China, the European Union (EU), and India. These external powers have rarely competed directly against each other, as they have exercised influence in well-defined, separate spheres: The United States has held the soft power advantage for its aid and security assistance; China in infrastructure and increasing trade; India in the mercantilist activities of its diaspora; and Europe as an ally of the United States focused on countering irregular migration. The resource-scarce post-COVID environment will accelerate competition between these powers and lead them into intersecting spheres of influence. Even with an incoming Joseph Biden administration, the United States is set for declining influence on the continent, creating a vacuum for Europe and China to either willingly or begrudgingly fill. Budget constraints on aid and defense, complemented by a shifting strategic emphasis toward great power competition, will lead the United States to scale down its security and development assistance in nonstrategic nations, instead urging American businesses to compete head on with Chinese firms in the marketplace. China, in turn, will be faced with an opportunity to ramp up its security assistance and will try to forge a new soft power advantage. This will be meant to overcome growing reputational concerns over debt relief and as a means to maintain the support of the African voting bloc in the United Nations as China faces enhanced global scrutiny. Europe may diverge more from the United States as it, too, is forced to carry a greater counterterrorism burden and seeks to combat a new surge of irregular migration, possibly nudging NATO to expand its footprint as well. And India will emerge from COVID-19 with a compelling value proposition for African nations seeking new economic partnerships. Some African nations will find themselves in the crosshairs of a new Cold War mentality that could threaten regionalization and the blooming ethos of pan-Africanism. Key countries that will be implicated include Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Their pursuit of bilateral versus pan-African interests will be decisive in setting the continent’s trajectory—toward a new African Century, or another period of thwarted ambitions. This paper explores the shifting roles of Africa’s traditional external powers: China, the United States, the EU, and India. Section 1 introduces the evolving postures and colliding interests of these powers. Section 2 maps out the competitive post-COVID landscape and outlines economic and security flashpoints. Finally, Section 3 identifies opportunities for African nations to pursue their own ambitions while resisting the imposition of a new Cold War–style competition on the continent.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
16833. Understanding the First and Second Digital Divides in Rural Bangladesh
- Author:
- Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Saiful Md. Islam
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Differences in individuals’ access to internet infrastructure refer to the first-level digital divide, whereas differences in an individual’s online skills and internet usage refer to the second-level digital divide. Bangladesh is a country with a clear-cut digital divide between rural and urban areas, which is primarily caused by income and wealth inequalities. But the uneven distribution of information and communications technologies (ICTs) between rural and urban areas contributes to the inequality in economic and social development. Therefore, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is taking initiatives to address the rural-urban divide in socio-economic development through the elimination of rural-urban disparities in the first- and second-level digital divides; this has become a key issue, as well as a major challenge for policymakers, practitioners, and academicians. The present research study uses the theory of digital divide stemming from a comparative phenomenon of different forms of inequalities and aims to generate meaningful insights about the spectrum of individual internet access and online skills (i.e. the first- and second-level digital divides) in the setting of rural Bangladesh, where there is a dearth of data as well as a research gap.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Internet, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16834. COVID-19’s Impact on Bangladesh Economy
- Author:
- Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Avinno Faruk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- This BIGD study examines the impact of COVID-19’s impact on the major economic and financial indicators of the economy of Bangladesh, including production, wages, price levels, advances, bills, investments, remittances and foreign trade, using the secondary data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank (BB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). In addition to the recent impact of the global economic meltdown, Bangladesh also experienced severe demand contraction in the local economy; this exacerbated the overall economic crisis of the country. Considering the duration and severity of COVID-19, we examine its impact on major economic and financial indicators of the Bangladesh economy and recommended policy responses for recovery, based on the analysis. Both domestic and international demands declined due to the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, and, thus, producers responded by lowering output to minimize the loss, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Findings reveal that nominal Wage Rate Index (WRI) in the industry and service sectors fell in recent times, which now appear to be recovering. The national inflation rate has not been affected much based on point-to-point changes. Food inflation fell in May 2020 and stood at 5.09 percent, but it appears to have risen recently. Non-food inflation rates have been falling over the last six months from April-September 2020. Prudent measures should include constant monitoring and adapting to the latest developments in major trading partners and host countries to mitigate the economic losses caused. Bank credit would play a key role in the ongoing and upcoming recovery process, as the government has opted for a credit-led stimulus package. However, as the virus is yet to be contained and an effective vaccine for it is yet to be made available in Bangladesh everywhere and to everyone, its economic repercussions are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16835. Qualitative Exploration The End User Context of BCC Materials on COVID-19 Guidelines and Handwashing
- Author:
- Tanvir Shatil, Sonia Afrin, Swagatam Saha, Dipanwita Ghosh, and Md. Kamruzzaman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- As a partner of the “Hygiene and Behaviour Change Coalition (HBCC),” BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) initiated a rapid formative research to identify gaps in people’s existing hygiene knowledge and practice, as well as opportunities for intervention. In doing so, the study aimed to help BRAC design and develop new Behavioral Change and Communication (BCC) materials that can effectively address people’s particular hygiene behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The two specific objectives of this study included investigating how users perceive the awareness messages and translate them into their everyday behaviour, and finding out the facilitating factors and the barriers they face in following Coronavirus-related public health and social guidelines. We selected 30 different respondents from Dhaka and Khulna and conducted in-depth telephone interviews, online focus group discussions (FGDs) through video conferencing, and shadow and visual content observation (e.g. photographs and videos). It was revealed that respondents have different levels of knowledge and practices including correct, partially correct and misconception on three domains: hand washing, mask use and social distancing. The study also revealed the personal and structural barriers to comply with the guidelines.
- Topic:
- Development, COVID-19, and Hygiene
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16836. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Asadul Islam, Atiya Rahman, and Rafia Nisat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Like other economic players, the novel pandemic severely hit small businesses—the larger source of growth and employment but also the most vulnerable sector—by disrupting national and international business networks, supply chain, and demand. To understand the evolving state of small enterprises during pre, par, and post-lockdown periods, BIGD in collaboration with Monash University, Australia conducted a survey on small enterprises, mostly light-engineering firms, and young workers across 18 districts in Bangladesh. The study finds that lockdown measures caused the majority of small enterprises to shut down, and during the early period of relaxing the lockdown, one-third of the enterprises were operating at limited capacity. Demand drop and the burden of fixed costs to run the businesses were the prominent reasons behind the drastic fall in profit. As a result, workers were losing jobs and the gender gap was widening, because female labour-intensive work (i.e. beauty parlour, tailoring) was affected harder. Other findings of concern include the emerging vulnerabilities for the enterprises with lower endowment and poor access to government stimulus packages and other financial support. The study emphasises on the importance of concrete targeting criteria and support delivery platforms to assist more vulnerable enterprises. Finally, it highlights that the enterprises that received BRAC’s intensive training on occupational health and safety (OHS), along with business training and financial linkages, made double profit compared to their counterparts. However, the absolute amount of profit was substantially lower for both groups, compared to their pre-COVID profit, indicating the importance of scaling up such intensive training to create more resilient enterprises in such crises.
- Topic:
- Development, Employment, Economy, Business, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16837. Digital Literacy of Rural Households in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Md. Wasel Shadat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- As more and more public and private sector services are being digitized to make them more accessible to citizens, digital literacy is becoming an increasingly essential skill needed to reap the fullest benefits from these services. Without people possessing the necessary digital competency, the benefits of information and communication technology (ICT)-driven public initiatives will not reach out to all the people of a country. The same holds true for Bangladesh, which aspires to become a fully digitized nation. The objective of this research is to a) explore the current state of digital literacy in rural Bangladesh, b) investigate the determinants of digital literacy, and c) develop the first-ever digital literacy index (DLI) for Bangladesh, which we named “DLit_BIGD 1.0”.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Rural, and Digital Literacy
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16838. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 and Policy Implications for Bangladesh
- Author:
- Sultan Hafeez Rahman, Abdur Razzaque, Jillur Rahman, and Wasel Bin Shadat
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented health and economic crisis for global economies, including Bangladesh. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic as reflected in a massive loss of human life worldwide, drastic decline in economic activities and employment, huge pressure on public health and other support services, social and physical distancing, etc. has been devastating. Since the first confirmed case of infection in March 2020, Bangladesh, like many other countries, had to consider some extraordinary measures including, amongst others, closure of all educational institutions, enforcement of economic shutdown measures and gradual reopening of economic activities, rolling out a stimulus package for business enterprises, etc. This study is motivated by the fact that understanding the economywide impact of Covid-19 has been challenging in Bangladesh. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model – a multi-region/multi-country computable general equilibrium comparative static framework – is utilized in this study to explore the potential impacts of COVID-19 induced disruptions for Bangladesh under three different alternative – low-shock, medium shock and high-shock scenarios. It outlines the transmission mechanisms through which the Bangladesh economy is being affected to assess the impact on major macroeconomic variables and sectoral outputs. These results are then incorporated into the social accounting matrix for Bangladesh to simulate the likely income and poverty effects for various types of households. This study also explores the likely impact of government support measures through the stimulus package in mitigating the adverse consequences.
- Topic:
- Economy, Public Policy, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
16839. Mapping China’s Global Future: Playing Ball or Rocking the Boat?
- Author:
- Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- China’s future role on the global stage hinges upon a mixture of strengths and weaknesses. Beijing’s meteoric rise in economic terms has been coupled by increasing military expenditures and a more assertive foreign policy stance. But the country is also facing a potential backlash, exemplified by protests in Hong Kong, while it remains to be seen whether (and how) the governance of the coronavirus outbreak will affect China's image abroad. This report sets out to explore some of the key aspects of China’s regional and global foreign policy. It analyses the core tenets that motivate and shape China’s preferences, ideals, and actions, and explores how they interact with its partners, allies, and rivals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Military Spending, COVID-19, and Future
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
16840. The Future of Migration to Europe
- Author:
- Matteo Villa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Even as migration pressure at the Greek border is on the rise, the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past. Yet, EU countries still struggle to come up with solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways. Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practices to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Regional Integration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
16841. Latin America and the New Global Order
- Author:
- Antonella Mori
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Amid the coronavirus pandemic, global geopolitical relations are being shaken to their roots, and Latin America is no different. The region is experiencing new transformations in political, economic, and societal terms. In turn, all these rapid changes are having an impact on how Latin American countries shape their own foreign policies, and on how they adapt to the challenges of an increasingly multipolar world. How are the US, China, and the EU competing in terms of political alliances and economic projection on the Latin American region? And how are some of the main Latin American countries (namely Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela) contributing to shape these new regional dynamics?
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- China, Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America
16842. The Balkans: Old, New Instabilities
- Author:
- Giorgio Fruscione
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Despite the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 could be a crucial year for the Western Balkans. For over twenty years, the region has been stuck in a never-ending transition. Politics, economics, and geopolitics are still falling prey to old and new sources of instability. With the path towards the EU integration still uncertain, today many governments are marked by autocratic stances and international actors strive for a bigger say in the region. NATO is expanding to the Balkans, but regional security still depends on foreign soft power and influence. And while recipes for economic transition focus mainly on foreign direct investments that often lack transparency, Balkan societies are losing their citizens to substantial emigration. What are the factors contributing to the Western Balkans instability in the age of Covid-19? Will the region be the ground for renewed geopolitical competition? How can the Balkans exit the transition and find a sustainable balance between all these tensions?
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, COVID-19, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
16843. Between Politics and Finance: Hong Kong's "Infinity War"?
- Author:
- Alessia Amighini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the Covid-19 pandemic strikes hard, protests in Hong Kong appear to have abated. Distant seem the days when yellow umbrellas and balaclavas saturated global media. And yet, just like at the start of what has now come to be known as the 2019 “global protest wave”, Hong Kong remains at the frontline of political contestation worldwide. The protests against the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition law unearthed one of the main points of contention between Hong Kong and mainland China. Through the protests, China’s increasingly assertive stance has found a counterweight, revealing how important the city is to Beijing. Apart from Hong Kong’s role as a major global trade and financial area, China’s actions towards Hong Kong might also serve as a litmus test for Beijing’s ability to mediate and pacify its neighbourhood. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic risks further heightening tensions between the two. What makes Hong Kong special? To what extent have the protests exacerbated or eased over time? How will the city’s role in mainland China’s outward-looking plans change, if the protests continue?
- Topic:
- Politics, Finance, Protests, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Hong Kong
16844. Forward to the Past? New/Old Theatres of Russia’s International Projection
- Author:
- Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 emergency will likely exacerbate many longstanding vulnerabilities that Russia has been facing for years: excessive dependence on energy exports, clashes with the West, demographic problems, and a constant foreign policy overreach. On foreign policy, however, Russia is not expected to take a step back. Today's Russia is back in many “old” theatres where the Soviet Union was actively engaged. More than a quarter of a century after the fall of the USSR, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made restoring his country's great power status a primary goal of his 20 years in power. What are the elements of continuity and change between Russia’s foreign policy and the Soviet Union’s? What are the political, historical, military and economic dimensions of Russia’s return to old Soviet theatres of influence? And how does this interact with Moscow's long-standing narrative of a return to a multipolar world?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Power Politics, COVID-19, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia
16845. Infrastructure in a Changing World: Trends and Challenges
- Author:
- Carlo Secchi and Alberto Belladonna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In a world on the brink of a global recession caused by COVID-19, the Infrastructure efforts of today and tomorrow are more crucial than ever. They are an indispensable countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative effects of the economic paralysis. But they also constitute a pivotal component of a country’s development and competitiveness in the long term. That is why infrastructure will continue to play a critical role even when the pandemic crisis has been tamed. Rapid demographic growth, increasing urbanization, especially in developing countries, coupled with the mounting climate change are challenges that won’t disappear with the virus. These significant challenges will come with equally difficult questions. How to cope with these long-term trends? How to finance the increasing need of infrastructure? Which major international actors will take the lead? And finally, what role will technology play in shaping the future of infrastructure efforts?
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Recession
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16846. Canada and the European Union: A New Transatlantic Alliance
- Author:
- Robert Hage
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Jean Monnet’s early Canadian experiences are seen as the basis for his inspiration to unite Europe. Successive Canadian governments have tried to ensure lasting links with the European Union. Both sides have now achieved this against the background of President Trump’s rejection of multilateralism and the world-wide pandemic.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, and North America
16847. European-Israeli Military Relations during Israel’s Regional Conflicts (2006-2016)
- Author:
- Mohammed Abu Saada and Yildirim Turan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- The study aims to answer the question of the nature of European-Israeli military relations during the time of four conflicts in the Middle East region; one with the Lebanese Hezbollah, and three in the Gaza Strip. In this view, we divided the study into three principal parts. The first part focuses on European-Israeli military relations by addressing three phases. The first phase from 1949 to 1967, i.e. from the establishment of the State of Israel to the Six-Day War; the second phase from 1967 to 1993, i.e. the period that preceded the peace agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians, the Oslo Accord; and the third phase from 1993 to 2006, which addresses the period preceding the Israeli war on Lebanon. The second part examines the justifications for the military relations between Europe and Israel through a review of Israeli and European concerns that stimulate the existence of military relations between them. The third part addresses the areas of armament and military exercises between EU countries and Israel from 2006 to 2016. The study concludes by providing several findings, most prominently, that European-Israeli military relations were not seriously affected during Israel’s regional conflicts in the period of 2006-2016.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Hezbollah, Military, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon
16848. Reassessing the Reasons of Democracy Deficit in the Middle East through the Role of Islam
- Author:
- Ibrahim Karatas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- There has been a large number of challenges to undemocratic regimes in the Middle East by their populations due to the denial of their participation in decision-making processes. Among many factors, Islamic faith and ruling are regarded to have more role in political conflicts than others. Particularly, the idea that Islam and democracy are not compatible with each other has prevailed and led to the neglect of other reasons in debates. This study analyzes the reasons for democracy deficit in the region such as the environment of mistrust abetting governments to abandon basic human and political rights, hydrocarbon revenues that make regimes independent from populations, the prevalent role of tribalism in government structures which is inherent to traditional Middle Eastern politics, the lack of civil society and the effect of Islam. The study asserts that the role of Islam is unfairly exaggerated since it does not offer a certain political system. Besides, such approaches also underestimate the strong damages other reasons cause. By analyzing the impact of Islam on governance, its use as a tool by political and anti-political Islamists as well as its compliance with democracy, this research aims to reveal to what extent Islam can be attributed to the democracy deficit of the region.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Sharia
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
16849. Tailor-made laws in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Gjergji Vurmo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This CEPS Policy Insight takes a lively rhetorical approach to showing how state capture in the Western Balkans has been ignored since the launch of the region’s EU accession process, despite the many examples highlighted by civil society and independent media. It argues that while the EU first acknowledged the clear signs of state capture in an official document in 2016, Western Balkan political elites had already built powerful networks of corrupt interests around them. Not only that, they had already reached the highest point of state capture – tailor-made laws.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Law, European Union, and State Capture
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
16850. Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020
- Author:
- Michael Emerson, Steven Blockmans, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridze, and Veronika Movchan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- With the bold title EasternPartnership policy beyond 2020: Reinforcing Resilience – an Eastern Partnershipthat delivers for all, the recent EU Joint Communication offers a broad array of policy orientations but little operational specificity, find the authors of this commentary. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – each with EU Association Agreements, requested a ‘quadrilogue’ with the EU to deal with matters of common concern to them but not the other EaP states. The fact that this request was not granted is a glaring omission from the Communication, but one that could still be corrected at the EaP summit on June 18th. The summit should also agree the policy direction of the EU and the Eastern partner states beyond 2020, and include the many transnational issues worthy of quadrilateral consultations. Among these issues is how the revision of major EU policies, such as those on energy, climate and competition, may affect the associated states.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Partnerships, Transnational Actors, Resilience, Energy, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia
16851. 100 Ideas for Upgrading the Association Agreements and DCFTAs with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
- Author:
- Michael Emerson and Steven Blockmans
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- There are now many ideas in circulation to enhance the Association Agreements (AA), which include the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA), stimulated in part by the ‘Structured Consultation’ on the future of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) initiated by the Commission in 2019. All three AA states made detailed submissions; the present note seeks to incorporate these and other ideas into the makings of a possible initiative to upgrade the agreements and give them renewed and politically significant momentum.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Free Trade, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia
16852. The Berlin Pulse 2020 Special Edition: German Foreign Policy in Times of COVID-19
- Author:
- Pascal Lamy, Feng Zhongping, and Karen Donfried
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- “Uncertainty is the only certainty” – these words are credited to the Roman philosopher Pliny the Elder, who died in the wake of an eruption of Mount Vesuvius in the year AD 79 which buried the city of Pompeii under volcanic ash. Whether or not the corona pandemic will be remembered 2,000 years from now, the virus reminds us of Pliny’s words: We may not yet know how SARS-CoV-2 will affect our societies, but affect them it will. Given this momentous event, like other organizations, we at Körber-Stiftung have had to respond with flexibility and a willingness to do things a little differently – one of the results is this special issue, juxtaposing German public opinion with international perspectives on the policy choices facing Berlin. This pandemic is occurring at a time of profound political change. Experts and policy-makers have pointed out for the better part of two decades now that whatever happens in China is likely to affect us. The absence of US leadership, a divided Europe, the increasing prevalence of international mistrust – like a focal lens, the coronavirus has shown us in all too much detail how these dynamics might play out over the next few decades. Germany has long struggled to adapt to these new realities. Germans have been told that their country will need to take on “more responsibility”, and that we will need to “take our fate into our own hands”. One example of how Berlin has tried to do so is through a renewed emphasis on multilateralism as a pillar of its foreign policy, not least by crafting the Alliance for Multilateralism. But how do these dynamics, and the spotlight they have cast on Berlin’s role in international affairs, square with public opinion? To answer this question remains the mission and idea of The Berlin Pulse.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Multilateralism, Crisis Management, Transparency, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, and Germany
16853. The Berlin Pulse 2020/21 (full issue)
- Author:
- Gro Harlem Brundtland, Paolo Gentiloni, Peter Altmaier, and H.R. McMaster
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Körber-Stiftung
- Abstract:
- In last year’s edition, we called 2020 an ‘eventful year’ with Germany’s presidency of the European Council and the US presidential election. But no one would have thought that a pandemic might be added to the list of major events affecting German foreign policy and political priorities around the globe. One year – and a COVID-19 special edition of The Berlin Pulse in between – later, international policy-making is slowly adjusting to the new level of uncertainty the pandemic brought into our lives. Despite these uncertain times, German public opinion on involvement or restraint in international crises remains solid as a rock: 44 percent of respondents say that Germany should get more strongly involved while 49 percent still prefer restraint. Since Körber-Stiftung posed this question for the first time in 2014, the public’s perspective has barely changed. In spite of this continuity, the present issue is also full of surprises and novelties. The idea of The Berlin Pulse is to identify potential gaps between German public opinion and expectations of international policy-makers. In 2020, another gap becomes an eye-catcher – the one between German and US public perceptions of the transatlantic partnership. A wide majority of US respondents considers Germany as a partner when tackling issues, such as protecting human rights and democracy (75 percent) or the environment (76 percent). By contrast, German respondents hardly reciprocate this feeling. With the US presidential election just behind us, an increasing US-Chinese rivalry in which Europe risks becoming – as Pauline Neville-Jones puts it – ‘the pig in the middle’ and crises beyond COVID-19 on the horizon, the present issue dedicates one chapter to each of these three developments to which German foreign policy needs to respond.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Public Opinion, European Union, Multilateralism, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, India, Germany, Syria, and United States of America
16854. Critical infrastructure in the shaping of national security
- Author:
- Ewa Żaboklicka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- Critical infrastructure plays a key role in ensuring the national security of a state, due to important functions thereof in military, economic, and public administration sectors. The destruction, damage, failure or other deprivation of critical infrastructure of its operational capabilities constitutes a direct threat to the structural and personal security of the state. The research methods and techniques implemented in the research process itself primarily hinge on critical analysis of acts of law and organisational and competence-related documents, subject-matter literature, synthesis and inference in order to reach the formulated objectives based on efficiency criteria. The main findings indicate that critical infrastructure is perceived as a set of systems which exerts a substantial impact on the security of the state and, obviously, its inhabitants. The results advocate for a reflection that critical infrastructure embraces a number of facilities which appear to be remarkably diverse. They are buildings, structures, installations, equipment and services which, integrally, form cohesive systems which allow the proper functioning of a given state. It is the state whose role is just to supervise and coordinate, whereas the operators of critical infrastructure are the ones who are to protect it. The overall findings of this paper present the notion that safeguarding critical infrastructure is a task of crucial importance to the national security of a state and, therefore, it would be worth reconsidering the intensification of rules which apply to the infrastructure of national security and its efficient functioning.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Infrastructure, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16855. An easy target? Types of attack on oil tankers by state actors
- Author:
- Maciej Hacaga
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- There was a huge reaction to the attacks that took place in the Gulf of Oman in May and June 2019 but, in fact, attacks on oil tankers are a century old problem. Oil tankers appear to be easy targets because of their size and cargo. The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effectiveness of different types of attack on oil tankers that have been undertaken since widespread use of oil began. A comparative case-study approach was adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of different types of attack on oil tankers over the long-term, namely the last century. It briefly reviews the destructiveness of three anti-tanker campaigns during the two World Wars. They are subsequently compared with two post-1945 sets of attacks in the Persian Gulf region – the Tanker War of the 1980s and the 2019 attacks. The scale of damages inflicted by attacks on oil tankers is varied. The experience of both World Wars shows their effectiveness. However, post-1945 events do not provide confirmatory evidence. The main difference is the scale of hostile activities. It is not the characteristics of tankers that make them easy targets but political conditions (war/peace state of international system) that enable the application of weapons and tactics that bring about a different scale of destruction.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, International Security, History, Maritime, Economic Security, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Persian Gulf
16856. GOVSATCOM makes the EU stronger on security and defence
- Author:
- Rafał Borek, Kaja Hopej, and Paweł Chodosiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- In the era of cyber threats and incidents related to the issue, secure communication for applications in critical circumstances responds to the growing need in Europe, where the use of commercial services is becoming insufficient. One solution that fulfils security needs is to provide accessible and reliable services based on space segment resources that are government controlled. The aim of the paper is to investigate Governmental Satellite Communication (Govsatcom), which is the first such large initiative to strengthen and increase the security and defence of the community of European countries. Furthermore, the paper discusses some implications related to the demand for this type of satellite communication and describes the engagement of the main involved institutions i.e. the European Space Agency, European Defence Agency, and European Commission, especially elaborating the PACIS projects running under ESA umbrella, which are one of the main preparatory actions for the IV EU Space Programme. Considerations about future relations between related parties and Poland’s possible engagement and the kind of benefits it would deliver are also considered. The paper leads to a conclusion that the future EU space programme creates a proper environment for cooperation between community members and delivers an opportunity to use safe and secure satellite communication for members who cannot afford to have their own capabilities.
- Topic:
- National Security, International Security, Communications, European Union, and Satellite
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16857. Components of defence strategies in society’s information environment: a case study based on the grounded theory
- Author:
- Erja Birgitta Mustonen-Ollila, Martti Lehto, and Jukka Heikkonen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The goal of this study is to explore the components of defence strategies faced by society in its information environment, and how these strategies are inter-related. This qualitative in-depth case study applied past research and empirical evidence to identify the components of defence strategies in a society’s information environment. The data collected was analysed using the Grounded Theory approach and a conceptual framework with the components of defence strategies and the relationships between these components was developed using the Grounded Theory. This study shows that the goal of politically and militarily hostile actors is to weaken society’s information environment, and that their operations are coordinated and carried out over a long time period. The data validates past studies and reveals relationships between the components of defence strategies. These relationships increase confidence in the validity of these components and their relationships, and expand the emerging theory. First, the data and findings showed 16 inter-connected components of defence strategies. Second, they showed that the political, military, societal, power, and personal goals of the hostile actors carrying out cyber operations and cyber attacks are to weaken society’s information environment. Third, they revealed that cyber operations and cyber attacks against networks, information and infrastructures are coordinated operations, carried out over a long time period. Finally, it was revealed that the actors defending society’s information environment must rapidly change their own components of defence strategies and use the newest tools and methods for these components in networks, infrastructures and social media.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Maritime, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16858. Near-Earth Objects (NEO) and other current space threats
- Author:
- Radosław Bielawski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The subject of the study are space threats – Near-Earth Objects (NEO) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA). The research methods employed in this article included the classic theoretical methods used in security sciences and a practical method – a quantitative study of social media. At present, space threat studies aim to resolve the terminological confusion related to NEOs, to determine current and potentially hazardous space objects and estimate the potential threats from them. The research is also expected to come up with two methods for estimating NEO threats, the Palermo and Torino scales. The practical result is to evaluate the public mood regarding NEO threats. Studies have shown that certain active space objects are capable of reaching the Earth’s surface and colliding with human-made in-space objects and devices, such as communication satellites. Should this happen, it could cause substantial social damage and destabilise state security, particularly if elements of critical infrastructure of the state were to be affected. Continuous monitoring of NEOs may play a central role in the provision of security. Furthermore, the public should be kept abreast of the threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Space, Non-Traditional Threats, and Near Earth Object (NEO)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16859. The Logic of Geopolitics in American-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Allen C. Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- One of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s first requests as President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor in 1977 was to ask the Pentagon for its plans – including targets – for nuclear war against “Russia”. Brzezinski was outraged when he was presented with the plan for nuclear war against the Soviet Union. He could not believe that the U.S. military had no plans to spe- cifically weaken the Russian core of the Soviet empire. For the Pentagon planners, Russia and the Soviet Union were one and the same.1 I begin with this anecdote because it reflects well an enduring geopolitical logic to American-Russian relations: American policy toward Russia, whether it be in the Tsarist, Soviet, or post-Soviet period, has not been based on opposing a strong Russian state per se. (That state married to communist ideology was something else altogether.) In the after- math of the Russian Civil War, for instance, the United States delayed recognition of Baltic independence until 1922, two years after Soviet Russia had recognized the independence of Estonia in the Treaty of Tartu, on the grounds that Polish and Finnish independence apart nothing should be done to call into question the territorial continuity of the Russian Em- pire.2 Indeed, American officials seldom viewed the Soviet Union as an empire, as the Pen- tagon war plans just cited illustrate. Historically, the logic of geopolitics i.e., the influence of organization in space on international political relationships has often tended to frame American-Russian relations in terms of complementarities of interest. Of course, geopolitics is not the only logic in AmericanRussian relations; ideology, domestic politics, as well as vested institutional interests all play their role in varying degrees under varying circum- stances. But historically, insofar as geopolitical factors have prevailed, American-Russian relations have generally been harmonious, if also remote and indirect in nature. (By indirect I mean that each sees the other mainly in terms of other powers or processes, e.g., the state of the balance of power in Europe and/or Northeast Asia.) Let us recall that Russia, whether it be under Imperial, Soviet, or post-Soviet auspices, is an essentially continental Eurasian power. Its primary state interest for centuries has been to build and consolidate a trans-continental, multi-national and imperial state while also man- aging international power politics with a series of powerful adversaries throughout Asia and Europe. Above all, Russia sought to ensure that no powerful coalition of external (and in Eu- rope technologically superior) powers could unite to challenge the Russian Empire’s territorial or political integrity. Russian diplomats and rulers thus learned to play the European balance of power with considerable finesse (e.g., the Treaty of Nystadt, 1721, under Peter the Great; the Congress of Vienna, 1815, under Alexander I; the Treaty of Rapallo between Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany, 1922; the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact, 1939; the Grand Alliance with the United States and Great Britain, 1941–45; and the Helsinki Final Act, 1975, to name just a few instances). As with Great Britain, maintaining a favorable European balance of power has been central to Russian statecraft.3 The United States, by contrast, is functionally an insular power (albeit on a continental scale) with respect to the rest of the world, surrounded as it is by two great oceans and militarily weak and isolated neighbors (i.e., Canada and Mexico). America’s primary foreign policy concern throughout most of its history has thus been, like Russia’s, to prevent the emergence of a hostile European hegemon that could threaten the country’s expansion in North America and its own hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Once the United States had stabilized its independence from Britain after the War of 1812, U.S. and British geopo- litical interests tended to coincide.4 In this context, American and Russian interests have more often been complementary than antagonistic. It has been primarily the intrusion of ideological elements, reflecting for example Americans’ global democratic aspirations or the Soviet Union’s ultimate objec- tive of the triumph of communism worldwide, that have rendered the bilateral relationship intransigent and even dangerous.5
- Topic:
- International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Post Cold War, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Soviet Union, North America, and United States of America
16860. Fluctuating Images of Enemies and Friends: Abkhazia, With Turkish Cyprus’ Lens
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Since1the 2008 Russian-Georgian war over breakaway regions, journalists talk about the undergoing colonization of Abkhazia by Russia through a number of processes: finan- cial and military aid, missiles installation in the region, infrastructure and telecommuni- cations control, Russian business and migration. Although, for various security reasons, welcomed by the Abkhaz elites while building their political entity against Georgians, one cannot but think of parallels with the Northern Cyprus developments over the last 30 years. In a similar process, Turkey sponsored the construction of the Turkish Cyprus de facto state. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, considerable resources were used to ‘prove’ the affinity with Turkey and Turks, to construct the enemy image of Greek Cypriots and, in so doing, to legitimate the separatist cause and friendship with the sponsor-State. However, anthropological studies in the North of the island show how living side by side with settlers from Turkey modified Turkish Cypriots’ self-identification as distinct from their new neighbours. Turkish Cypriots of all political convictions are uncomfortable and count critical stories about “people from Turkey.” They distinguish “us” Cypriots from “them” the settlers and simultaneously the image of former ‘enemy’, the Greek Cypriots, is vested with less hostile shapes. A civic identification develops as collective perceptions change. This, in turn, has implications for political cleavages as new options for (de)constructing the de facto state and new party programs emerge. How this identity transformation oc- curs? What triggers changing policies towards our enemies and friends? The article’s objective is to map and compare the ‘colonization’ process that took place in Northern Cyprus and the one observed in Abkhazia and to detect changes that occur in the image of ‘friends and enemies of the nation’ during this process and in the ethnic versus civic State-building endeavours. How external factors affect these transformations? Following Anthony Smith and George Schöpflin, enemies and friends are constantly redis- covered and re-interpreted, and their (re)construction account for “our” territory, justify col- lective claims and mobilize collective action. These fluctuations adapt to the needs of the moment, to an external threat, and to structural changes. When fluctuations in perceiving the ‘Other’ take place and how do they translate into the political construction of de facto states? Although the Abkhazian case is recent and in the making, establishing parallels with the Turkish Cyprus case may shed light on patterns of fluctuating nation-building processes, and by the same token, in (de facto) state-building.
- Topic:
- Development, Conflict, Rivalry, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Cyprus
16861. Economic Transformation and Privatization
- Author:
- Richard J. Hunter Jr. and Leo V. Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- In its simplest form, privatization is de-statism – that is, removing the state as the owner of property and assets. From the outset of the transformation process in Poland, significant systemic limitations to the privatization process existed1. A developed market infrastructure was absent. Businesses that were being prepared for privatization lacked the ability to conduct market research, and advisory and consulting services were in short supply. Procedures and benchmarks for property valuation were almost non-existent. The financial infrastructure was immature and data on the profitability of firms being prepared for privatization was problematic. In addition, both the quality and level of competency of civil servants (the nomenklatura) and private managers remained low-largely due to the negative legacy of Poland’s communist past.
- Topic:
- Economics, Privatization, Governance, and Economic Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
16862. Micro level factors leading to a migratory decision: Migrant groups in the Czech Republic
- Author:
- Zivka Deleva and Antonin Mikes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Multidisciplinary work has yielded a variety of attempts to formulate unified theoretical frameworks to aid our understanding of the complex flow of individuals under the rubric of migration. While these attempts have greatly enhanced our understanding of determi- nates of aggregate flows comparatively little is known about remigration trends, second generation returnees or migrant resettlement during multistage migratory phases. Taking into account the reality that migrant itineraries are continuously under development and are subject to change, this work seeks to clarify our understanding of migratory flows into the Czech Republic with a particular focus on highly educated migrants2. This has been made possible by analysis of the responses collected from a snowball sample of migrants in the Czech Republic3. In the interest of developing a better understanding of the complex web of flows and micro flows within and across the target region the researchers have targeted several dis- tinct migrant groups. These groups have been divided into distinct linguistic groupings; Slovak speakers, Russian speakers (including Ukrainians and Belarusians) and English Language speakers (from a variety of source countries)
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigrants, Language, Identity, and Microaggression
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czech Republic
16863. Stereotypes of the political left and right in Hungary
- Author:
- Nora Anna Lantos and Nora Orsolya Balazs
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- The meaning, perception and psychological correlates of liberal-conservative or left- wing – right-wing ideologies are very popular topics in political psychology. This direction of research focuses on the affective/ motivational background of party and ideological preferences, assuming essential psychological differences behind them. These differ- ences were detected by multiple methods in previous studies. Some, using self-reporting questionnaires, focus on the personality, attitude or value differences between partici- pants with a left-wing or right-wing orientation1, 2, 3, while others place the emphasis on the general perception of differences between leftist-rightist orientation and the attributions given to them4, 5. The latter approach is related to the concept of stereotype.
- Topic:
- Leftist Politics, Identity, Stereotypes, Partisanship, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
16864. Georgia’s Road to NATO: Everything but Membership?
- Author:
- Marion Kipiani
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in Ukraine continues to jolt the architectural plans of Euro-Atlantic security developed over the past 25 years. Predictions of a “new Cold War,” and anxiety over Russia’s ambitions in its neighborhood, have led to calls for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to step up efforts to ensure security on the European continent and protect its newer members in close geographic proximity to the Russian Federation. After more than two decades, during which NATO was transforming into a military alliance fo- cused on out-of-area missions, the collective defense at the heart of the 1949 Washington Treaty has suddenly appeared to regain its relevance. Since the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and the escalation of military conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region a year ago, NATO has demonstrated its commitment to the security of its Eastern European member states through reassurance measures that have included increased air and maritime patrols, as well as the rotation of ground forces. There are however countries partnering with NATO – but not covered by its collective defense protective umbrella – which fall into a gray zone of influence between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic allies. These countries, including Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine itself, are particularly concerned by Russia’s strategic objective of keeping a sphere of i
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Georgia, and North America
16865. Where are We on the European Map? Comparing Public Service Motivation in Central and Eastern Europe with Neighboring Countries
- Author:
- Palina Prysmakova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Despite some similarities within regions, the composition of the public sector differs across the world. This also applies to the working culture of this sector. While recogniz- ing the desire to help others and to improve one’s personal financial situation as essen- tial work motives, all around, the public sector, employees emphasize the importance of these purposes with varying degrees of strength in different areas. Shaped to a large extent by the communist past, the public sector of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries continues to stand out amongst other countries on the continent. Much has been said about the historical determinants that have shaped the motivation of people from the region. While acknowledging the significance of the former regime, this article aims to analyze the current state of the public sector workforce in CEE and to examine its present distinctions from the private sector. The main research question of this article is what type of motivation drives public sec- tor employees and whether this motivation is different from the private business sector. Thus, the article compares intrinsic and extrinsic work motives of both sectors within the region and contrasts them to other European countries. Being a part of a larger compara- tive research project, this particular piece is devoted to CEE countries from the former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc, namely, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Public Sector, Private Sector, Public Service, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16866. Reconsidering Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century
- Author:
- Teimuraz Papaskiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- The Russian occupation of Crimea in February-March 2014, marked the beginning of a new phase of tension between the Western world and Russia. Although it was predicted several years prior to the conflict that Ukraine would be Russia’s next victim,1 nobody paid much attention to these warnings. Thus, the Russian moves proved surprising for most Western societies, especially for the leaders of Western countries. It effectively ended the inefficient policy of “reset”, which was actually stillborn, because of the inability of the American administration to understand Vladimir Putin’s person and his goals. In June 2001, Putin met US President George W. Bush, who said after this meeting: “I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”2 President Bush was ridiculed for these words, yet even nine years later, he did not acknowledge his mistake. In 2010, he said: “I did not make a mistake in [my] assessment of Russian leader Vladimir Putin [...] Putin became a different person [...] I think, to a certain extent, he changed.”3 It seems that George W. Bush was not able to figure out that it was not Putin who had changed. It was the fact that U.S. and Eu- ropean leaders did not grasp which country Vladimir Putin was “deeply committed” to. For the Russian president, “his country” meant the Soviet Union, not the Russian Federation. He even officially declared that, “the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopo- litical catastrophe of the century”.4 (Emphasis added – T.P.) This phrase was not just mere nostalgia for the “good old times”, otherwise no one in his right mind would ever call the break-up of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” When talking about the 20th century, during which two world wars cost more than 80 million lives combined, the break-up of one empire with nearly no casualties cannot be considered “the greatest catastrophe.” Therefore, those words meant that Putin’s intention was to re- store, at least, to some extent, the “old greatness” of the Soviet Empire.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Empire, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
16867. Russia’s Peacekeeping Operations in the Post-Soviet Space: “Mirotvorchestvo” Applied
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- According to a general definition, a conflict is a process in which one party perceives that its interests are being opposed or negatively affected by another party1. Conflict is manifested through adversarial social action involving two or more actors and the ex- pression of differences is often accompanied by intense hostilities. Most significantly, pro- tracted conflict arises from failure to manage an antagonistic relationship2. A special kind of conflict involves force being used by both parties to the conflict. Armed conflicts in the neighbourhood of Russia emerged during the disintegration of the USSR, when parts of former Soviet republics began to claim independence. This is when Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria decided to form inde- pendent states, thus infringing on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Mol- dova – all states with international recognition. The parties on both sides of these ethnic and political conflicts had been attempting to resolve these situations by themselves, but the management process was then joined by “third parties”: Russia, Iran, Turkey, CIS and other international organizations such as the UN and the OSCE, and, recently, also the EU.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Post-Soviet Europe
16868. The Kaliningrad Region – Key to Security in East-Central Europe
- Author:
- Krzysztof Zegota
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Political transformations in East-Central Europe after 1989, and the advancing pro- cesses of integration, have resulted in a significant increase in the importance of the Ka- liningrad region of the Russian Federation for the stabilisation of this part of Europe in two dimensions: the Kaliningrad region provides a unique example and a specific “testing ground” for cooperation between the European Union (EU) and Russia, and also plays a crucial geopolitical role for the southern part of the Baltic Sea region. For the Russian Federation, this region has become especially important in view of the integration pro- cesses occurring in East-Central Europe over the last twenty-five years. The European integration process has been ongoing, with significant milestones marked by two stages of the EU expansion in 2004 and 2007, when a series of East-Central European states gained membership. An increase in the cohesion of this part of Europe was also affected by progressive Euro-Atlantic integration, a subsequent step of which was the eastward expansion of NATO in 1999 and in 2004. Thus, the area of European and Euro-Atlantic inte- gration significantly neared the borders of the Russian Federation. It is important that the Kaliningrad region has entered into intensive interactions with various entities from the EU member states, becoming involved – to some extent – in the network of relations with the EU: through the integration of local governments, universities, non-governmental organi- zations, and by utilizing various cross-border cooperation programmes.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16869. Price of Aggression: The Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy
- Author:
- Kazimier Dadak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- In late February of 2014, president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, a staunch ally of Russia, lost power. This event sent into motion a sequence of events that pitched Rus- sia against its neighbour and the West. Faced with the loss of influence, if not control, over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin immediately took steps that, in his mind, were to secure the interests of his country. First, in March 2014, Russia seized and annexed Crimea; soon af- terwards a Russian-inspired rebellion engulfed eastern Ukraine. These measures drastically increased Putin’s popularity at home, but made him a pa- riah abroad. Initially, the West, including the European Union, imposed diplomatic sanc- tions1. They had no effect on Russian behaviour and, in July, the West expanded punitive measures to the economy2. President Putin did not budge, and in September, the United States and the European Union increased the pressure by imposing additional sanctions on the financial sector3. As a result, Russian companies, including large banks, were effec- tively cut off from western financial markets. Past experience, such as the U.S. led sanc- tions on Iran, shows that this type of punishment is very effective and this paper illustrates that they exacted a price on the Russian economy as well.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
16870. How the Socialist Economy was destroyed in the USSR (One reason for the collapse of the country)
- Author:
- Rudolf Pikhoia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- On 25 September 1990, one of the first meetings of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of Russia was held in the building of the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR. The agenda consisted of the issue of ensuring the economic sovereignty of Russia in the USSR. Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Yuri Skokov, responsible for industrial policy, spoke with bitterness about his meeting with Minister of Metallurgy of the USSR Seraphim Baibakov: “We spoke to him about our sovereignty, and he said: ‘I’m sorry, but last year I became an owner of property and a legal successor of state property.’ Kolpakov became Krupp. Now he cre- ates 10-15 companies, leaving a small management structure. It is presidential rule in the steel-casting complex.” Frankly speaking, after I became familiar with the transcript of this meeting, it made me think. When assessing the reforms that took place in the late 1980s and early 1990s it is, perhaps, the only question to which all representatives of Russian political science an- swer in the same fashion. Both supporters of radical reforms (we shall call them, conven- tionally, the E. T. Gaidar-Anatoly Chubai school) and their opponents in the wider political spectrum – from former Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers N.I. Ryzhkov, to pre- sent Assistant to the President and scholar, S. Y. Glazyev, answer the question about the beginning period of privatisation and destruction of the public sector in the same manner. They are unanimous in recognising that privatisation dates back to the early 1990s, and is concentrated in the period from 1992 to 1996.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Empire, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Soviet Union
16871. Public and Private Hate Speech in Poland
- Author:
- Magda Stroinska and Grażyna Drazazga
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- “W ords can be like tiny doses of arsenic: they are swallowed unnoticed, appear to have no effect, and then after a little time the toxic reaction sets in after all,” wrote Vic- tor Klemperer in his study of the language of the Third Reich (Klemperer 1946/2000: 15- 16). The importance of language for effective persuasion has been acknowledged by the teachers of rhetoric and orators since the age of antiquity. In modern times, there were both politicians who practiced deception through language for political or other gains, and also those who studied the effects of language-based manipulation. Among the most profound research on the mechanisms and effects of propaganda, one could name the writings of George Orwell, Friedrich Hayek, or Michał Głowiński. In this paper, we focus on one particularly disturbing aspect of propaganda: the use of hate speech. The reason for this choice of topic is the unprecedented explosion of populism all over the world, and the spread of perhaps its strongest weapon – hate through political and social fearmongering and use of what Klemperer referred to as ‘poisonous language’. Both political discourse in general and political propaganda in particular, tend to use a number of linguistic mechanisms in order to maximize the way they affect their target audiences and stir up hostility towards certain minorities. The most effective techniques, proven throughout history, include stereotyping for the purpose of singling out individu- als or groups as the proverbial “other” and, making that “other” out to be the scapegoat (cf. Stroińska 1998), as well as ad hominem attacks and redefining the meaning of certain keywords.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Discrimination, Language, Hate Speech, and Speech
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
16872. Shaking the Foundation: the Trump Administration and NATO’s East
- Author:
- Metthew Bryza
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Ultimately though, my very last remarks are ultimately optimistic, because President Trump lacks geopolitical vision, lacks historical insight or, really even, frankly – I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but – curiosity about history. Everything is about the deal. One and one, the individuals, the people – that’s why he had nobody in a room which is what Putin wanted, besides Rex Tillerson and the interpreter when they met. And so, what’s inevitably going to happen is he will start up with a grand bargain, where something hap- pens in Ukraine mostly cut over the heads of the Ukrainians. But thank goodness with Am- bassador Volker there, I know he’s no fool and will fight against that, but probably though there will be an agreement which I know that the Trump administration, from my own contacts within, has been cooking up, hoping for, for a longtime, whereby President Putin gets what he needs. He gets an excuse to exit Donbass, because that’s a failed operation, the uprising that he expected never happened, Russian troops are dying, it’s an economic albatross around the neck of Russia. But he can’t just leave, he can’t just pull out Russian troops, because that would really hurt him domestically, politically. So, okay, he says: “We’ve reentered the geopolitical stage, we’re at the center of it with President Trump”. Putin will say “We’ll pull out of Donbass, we’re never leaving Crimea”, That will be the deal I think. Donbass – if the Ukrainian government offers autonomy – will have a sort of a frozen political conflict, troops gone, heavy weapons pulled back on the Russian side, Crimea still what it is – anschlussed by Russia. And then the other area where there will be coopera- tion is in Syria. And we’ve already seen in Southeastern Syria there is a modest cease-fire that seems to be holding – that’s great, may it work, however it also provides U.S. bless- ing for Russian troops to base deeper in the Middle East, and that has never happened before. But leave that aside, maybe it will bring peace. Eventually that cooperation in Syria will collapse. Russia has no history of successfully establishing peace and rebuilding economies and complex cultures. It used brutality in the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, to build the Soviet Union, but it doesn’t have the finesse to rebuild something on the scale of Syria. And so, Trump is going to be disappointed with President Putin. President Putin will inevitably overplay Russia’s hand, and finally at that point my last remark – if the EU and NATO have maintained their cohesion, remain strong, maintain the geopolitical vision of President Duda and Secretary of State Szczerski, then we have a chance to take these positive developments and push away the lack of clarity, the dalliance with Putin and the security services on the part of team Trump, and finally wake up – just as Obama woke up, just as President Bush woke up and realized he that he hadn’t see Putin’s soul, and then maybe we can rebuild. So, the key to all this is that you all are doing exactly what you’ve said, Mr. Secretary of State – taking the strategic reins in your own hands, pursuing initia- tives like the Three Seas, changing the geopolitical facts on the ground so that when the U.S. does finally wake up – we know which way to move. Thank you very much!
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
16873. Remarks on Regional Security
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- I am delighted to be in Warsaw on this panel. In 1994 when I graduated with a PhD, and held my first academic post, the first international conference I went to was in Wrocław, and obviously I had to travel through Warsaw. So, it’s really nice to be back in Poland and have the opportunity to present in the capital when older and wiser. Today, I am going to try and look at how we understand the rationality, the logic of Russia’s foreign policy, particularly the destabilization efforts against neighbours and come to a conclusion has to how sustainable and long-term this approach will be. Will it gradually diminish or is it set to stay as it is or even increase? To try and understand Russia’s foreign policy, we need to look into the domestic eco- nomic, political, and social system created by a system-forming figure that is President Vladimir Putin. The two key data points here really are two strategic vulnerabilities that Russia has to deal with. The first is the hydrocarbon dependence, 50% of GDP and 70% of exports, and 98% of corporate tax. The vulnerability is that Russia is dependent on hy- drocarbon revenues but cannot affect the price of oil globally (which sets the price of gas). Oil can be priced at $110pb or at $25pb and the shift can take place over a matter of months. The second vulnerability is the popularity of the president. When Putin has de-modernized Russia, de-institutionalized and de-globalized Russia it means that if his popularity decreases then you have an existential crisis within the federation. The destabi- lizing question is: “If not Putin, then whom?” There are no contingency plans, no succession mechanism to replace the leader. So, essentially we are looking at Russia’s foreign policy operating in a context where the economy is in the toilet as reflected in a 0.2% average GDP growth since 2009; 2012 – 0% growth and since 2012 when Kudrin resigned from the government. Normally, the popularity of a president – as was the case in the first 8 years of Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 – tracks the economy, or maybe lags a little bit behind. As economic performance increases and revenues distributed to the population, so the popularity of the president. So, this is very abnormal politics.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
16874. Kremlin Propaganda and Disinformation in Georgia: tools, channels, narratives
- Author:
- Małgorzata Zawadzka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Georgia is an object of special interest for the Russian Federation for several reasons, mainly due to its strategic location. First of all, Georgia connects oil-rich Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea with Turkey and the Black Sea. The route through Georgia is also the shortest way from Russia to Armenia, which would shorten and ease the transport of military equip- ment to the Middle East. Further, the trade route through Georgia is one of the few routes connecting China with European markets simultaneously omitting Russia. Finally, Georgia is situated in the area called Russia’s “soft underbelly”, territory considered by Moscow as its natural sphere of influence, hence NATO’s or the European Union’s presence there is unwelcome. Yet Georgia is important to Russia for one more reason. Although the Au- gust war in 2008 was in general won by the Russian Federation, to Moscow’s surprise international public opinion did not follow the Kremlin narration of the events’ course. Rus- sia lost the war on information and is unable to dispose of the occupant-aggressor image.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Georgia
16875. Turkey and East Central Europe: idealism, pragmatism, misperception or clash of interests?
- Author:
- Konrad Zasztowt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Turkey is Russia-centric in its East European policies. This approach is a legacy of the Cold War, when the Communist bloc countries were regarded not as sovereign states, but merely the Soviet Union’s “satellites”. Even when they regained full independence after 1989, from Turkey’s point of view, they constituted rather a kind of Russia’s backyard and were generally little known to the Turkish public. Obviously the newly independent states established after the collapse of the Soviet Union were to an even greater extent than the post-communist states perceived in Turkey in the sphere of influence and special interests of Russia. These clichés were shared by Turks and with many in Western societies, as Tur- key remained on the other side of the Iron Curtain.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
16876. From a Common to a National State(s) and the Lithuanian-Polish Dispute
- Author:
- Alfonsas Eidntas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the restoration of the independent states of Poland and Lithuania, we will return to a fundamental question, namely, whether the relationship between our contemporary states, which had already become hostile during the restoration process, is a time of missed opportunities? Or maybe the interests of both sides were simply so different that it was impossible for them to agree on a matter of major importance – state territory (partly also on the issue of national minorities) – and to balance their interests, thus avoiding conflict and a particularly hostile bilateral relationship which lasted until the tragic developments for both Poland and Lithuania in 1939-1940, when our countries fell victim to two tyrants. It is necessary to adopt new approaches to history. As time passes, new generations lose the memory of how events developed. Moreover, old beliefs, suspicions, and phobias are even revived. I would like to tell you a personal story in order to illustrate this point. At the end of December 1993, an annual convention of Lithuanian ambassadors was held in Vilnius. I had just flown in from Washington, D.C., and so I was reflecting on the attitude of the U.S. Administration and the conclusions that were arrived at after some friendly dis- cussions with the staff of the Polish Embassy in Washington D.C., and I shared my thoughts.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Lithuania
16877. The Structure of Government Elites within the Regime of Alaksandar Lukashenka
- Author:
- Francisak Viacorka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Belarus under the authoritarian rule of President Alaksandar Lukashenka claims the status as the last free country in Europe1. In contrast to neighboring Ukraine, Russia, and the Baltic States, no structural reforms have been implemented in Belarus: the system of power remains strictly centralized; the government replicates the Soviet vertical system with its multiple bureaucratized ministries and departments; the economy is mainly state- owned, and the opposition is excluded from all state institutions and the government. The personalistic dictatorship of Lukashenka who has uncompetitively remained in power since 1994, lets neither politicians nor officials accumulate sufficient economic or political power. The bureaucracy in Belarus is formed primarily of people who demonstrate full loyalty to the regime. This makes the cabinet of ministers a purely technical, not political body. However, could not this be the evidence of its unprofessionalism? The research statement of the current paper is that Belarus government appointees and bureaucrats take their offices according to their experience and competence, not only because of their personal or political ties. In particular, I assume that for an absolute ma- jority of ministry staffers their way to power was paved with specialized education and professional careers in their area, and later they were appointed to leading positions in the Government or state-building institutions without building political careers.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, Reform, Leadership, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
16878. The Balkan Front in the New Cold War
- Author:
- Gordon S. Bardos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- As relations between Russia and the U.S.1continue their downward spiral, the Balkans have become another front in what scholars such as Stephen F. Cohen and Robert Leg- vold have dubbed “the New Cold War.”2 Yet the return to cold war, as Legvold notes, in- volves numerous opportunity costs for both countries—and considerable collateral dam- age as well. One of the areas in which the collateral damage will be most severe is the Balkans. Indeed, the costs of the new confrontation between Washington and Moscow are already evident in the democratic backsliding that has occurred throughout the region over the past decade. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2016, shows that of the nine countries in southeastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croa- tia, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia), only one (Bulgaria) showed any improvement, one (Albania) showed no improvement, and the remaining sev- en all regressed in terms of their democratic development.3 Freedom House’s Nations in Transit and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index have similarly shown significant demo- cratic backsliding in the Balkans since 2008.4
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
16879. Nord Stream 2 Current State of the Project and its implications for European Energy Security
- Author:
- Nicola Mellere
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Nord Stream 2 is a planned pipeline through the Baltic Sea within the project Nord Stream. The pipeline Nord Stream 2 would flank the already existing Nord Stream 1 in transporting natural gas over 1,220 km from the large reserves in North-Western Russia to the German Baltic coast. In particular, Nord Stream 2 is expected to link Ust Luga in Russia with Greifswald in Germany. The project is planned to double the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline, with the total volume of both ventures being a maximum of 110 bcm per year. In- deed, Nord Stream 2 is expected to transport annually 55 billion cubic metres (bcm), which is the same amount of Nord Stream 1. The history of Nord Stream project began in 1997, when the Finnish-Russian consor- tium “North Transgas Oy” was established to explore the possibilities of transporting gas from Russia to Europe. In 1999 the consortium concluded the exploration stating that an offshore route through the Baltic Sea is the best option from economic, technical and en- vironmental points of view. Then, in 2000 the EU recognized the need for a new pipeline. In 2005, the North Stream consortium was formed with the participation of Gazprom, the German companies Wintershall and E.ON Ruhrgas. Later two other companies joined the consortium: the Dutch company Gasunie and the French GDF SUEZ SA. The construction of the lines of Nord Stream 1 lasted from April 2010 until October 2012, when Line 2 of Nord Stream 1 officially became operational.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Nord Stream 2
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16880. Power down to level up: resilient place-shaping for a post-Covid age
- Author:
- Andrew Walker and Patrick Diamond
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- It has become commonplace in 2020 to say that the Covid-19 pandemic has shone a light on severe problems and iniquities in the delivery of local services. But it is true. It is also true returning to pre-Covid “normality” is not an option, nor is it really desirable. Crisis issues in council finances, social care, children’s services, housing, homelessness, high streets and local growth, did not spring up overnight. LGIU and others have been shouting about these things for years and trying to get decision makers to pay proper attention. We understand that this is challenging. There are no easy solutions. Tackling the problems will involve choices and trade-offs. But that is politics. If we don’t take this opportunity to empower communities, so that they can flourish in the future, then when will we? At present, central government is concerned with issues of council structure and is pursuing a strategy of reorganisation that will reflect central government priorities, not those of local communities. This is a distraction from the important, longstanding problems that the government has so far refused to engage with: a finance settlement for local government; the crisis in adult social care and children’s services; and the unanswered problems of English devolution. At its root, this is a longstanding crisis of governance. The UK, remarkably centralised in comparison with similar economies around the world, has a moribund system of governance. Its outdated and inadequate constitutional framework, which wouldn’t be (and isn’t) looked upon as a model worth following elsewhere, is supported by a set of assumptions, ideas and beliefs that dominate in national political discourse. These hold that Whitehall knows best. Ministers hand down decisions that must be delivered across a varied and diverse geography by local authorities, regardless of local circumstances, assets, or democratic support. This is blind to the importance of place and it should be reversed. In this paper we show how local councils have already demonstrated their capacity for effective place-based It has become commonplace in 2020 to say that the Covid-19 pandemic has shone a light on severe problems and iniquities in the delivery of local services. But it is true. It is also true returning to pre-Covid “normality” is not an option, nor is it really desirable. Crisis issues in council finances, social care, children’s services, housing, homelessness, high streets and local growth, did not spring up overnight. LGIU and others have been shouting about these things for years and trying to get decision makers to pay proper attention. We understand that this is challenging. There are no easy solutions. Tackling the problems will involve choices and trade-offs. But that is politics. If we don’t take this opportunity to empower communities, so that they can flourish in the future, then when will we? At present, central government is concerned with issues of council structure and is pursuing a strategy of reorganisation that will reflect central government priorities, not those of local communities. This is a distraction from the important, longstanding problems that the government has so far refused to engage with: a finance settlement for local government; the crisis in adult social care and children’s services; and the unanswered problems of English devolution. At its root, this is a longstanding crisis of governance. The UK, remarkably centralised in comparison with similar economies around the world, has a moribund system of governance. Its outdated and inadequate constitutional framework, which wouldn’t be (and isn’t) looked upon as a model worth following elsewhere, is supported by a set of assumptions, ideas and beliefs that dominate in national political discourse. These hold that Whitehall knows best. Ministers hand down decisions that must be delivered across a varied and diverse geography by local authorities, regardless of local circumstances, assets, or democratic support. This is blind to the importance of place and it should be reversed. In this paper we show how local councils have already demonstrated their capacity for effective place-based leadership, without input from Westminster. This is despite decades of chipping away at their power and institutional resilience by central government., without input from Westminster. This is despite decades of chipping away at their power and institutional resilience by central government.
- Topic:
- Governance, Local, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
16881. Faith-Based Actors & Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Simon Robins
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- With funding from the Global Initiative for Justice, Truth, and Reconciliation, The Public International Law and Policy Group worked with two Consortium partners—the International Coalition of Sites of Conscience and the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation on a research project with the aim of examining how engagement with faith-based actors can strengthen transitional justice processes, in light of the varied roles that religious and faith-based actors have played during periods of conflict and/or authoritarian rule.
- Topic:
- Religion, Transitional Justice, Transition, and Faith
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
16882. The Belt and Road Initiative: The Sources of China’s Conduct, and India and Japan’s Responses
- Author:
- Hao Nan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is now more than seven years old, projecting ever-increasing influence throughout the world while stimulating growing concerns about China’s motives and behavior. This large-scale and multifaceted program benefits China, and not only economically, but in the politico-security sense. In response, India has stuck to its stance of distancing itself from the BRI while Japan has evolved past its initial rejection to selectively engage with the initiative. Tracing Chinese motives and conduct, along with the Indian and Japanese responses, back to the respective countries’ long-existing schools of strategic thought enables us to better decode current affairs and predict future dynamics.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, South Asia, India, and Asia
16883. On the Value of Nuclear Dialogue with China
- Author:
- David Santoro and Robert Gromoll
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- This paper was written by Dr. David Santoro, Vice President and Director for Nuclear Policy at the Pacific Forum, and Dr. Robert Gromoll, former Director of the Office of Regional Affairs at the US Department of State’s Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation; Dr. Gromoll is now retired. Both Drs. Santoro and Gromoll participated in numerous dialogue rounds, and Dr. Santoro was a co-organizer. The paper is based primarily on the contents of the dialogue’s written reports, several of which were authored or co-authored by Dr. Santoro. By and large, the paper draws directly from these reports and reviews how the topics addressed in the dialogue were approached and discussed by the US and Chinese sides over time. (A list of these reports is included at the end of the paper; some have been published, others have not.) The paper is also based on the authors’ broader experience in participating in the Track-1.5 dialogue; the conversations they have had with US and Chinese participants on these issues over the years, both during the dialogue and on the margins; and their own personal research. This paper represents the views of the authors and not those of Pacific Forum or the US State Department.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
16884. Securing the Sonobuoy Supply Chain: How Australia Can Help Underwrite Anti-Submarine Warfare Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Tom Corben
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- This paper highlights the challenges afflicting the sonobuoy supply chain, a key item in the prosecution of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations by the United States and many of its key allies. It argues that Australia is well-placed to address these issues, and that doing so would better underwrite collective ASW operations in the Indo-Pacific. After a brief post-Cold War hiatus, significant improvements in the submarine fleets of China and Russia have seen ASW revived as a core mission for the United States Navy. However, growing demand for ASW operations has exposed shortcomings in the maintenance, procurement and readiness of US maritime aircraft fleets essential to prosecuting those missions. This paper argues that, as a result, US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific—many operating US-made maritime aircraft—will likely be required to step-up their own contributions to regional ASW operations. However, serious vulnerabilities in the sonobuoy supply chain accessed by all of these states threatened to undermine collective efforts, challenges which predate the global COVID-19 pandemic. A single US-based supplier presently provides sonobuoys to the US and many of its key partners, but its long-term capacity to meet soaring demands is in question. In its current form, any disruption to the sonobuoy supply chain would disproportionately impact allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific at the same time they are being asked to step-up their contributions to collective ASW. Securing the long-term future of the sonobuoy supply chain should therefore be an urgent priority. This paper argues that Australia is well-positioned to address these challenges, given its history of innovation and manufacturing in advanced sonar technologies; recent investments in sovereign defense industry capabilities and military infrastructure; deep alliance relationship with the US; and growing network of ASW-oriented regional security partnerships. To this end, Australia should pursue several interrelated lines of effort: 1) increase interim sonobuoy stockpiles while rebuilding its independent manufacturing capacity; 2) deepen defense industry cooperation with the US and Five Eyes partners on defense industry and supply chain issues; 3) strengthen cooperation in the defense industry, especially research and development within key regional security partnerships already predisposed towards ASW, such as with South Korea. Addressing the vulnerabilities in the sonobuoy supply chain would not only improve Australia’s independent ASW capacity, but would help underwrite collective ASW in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Supply Chains, and Submarines
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Indo-Pacific
16885. Conflict and Coronavirus: How COVID-19 is Impacting Southeast Asia’s Conflicts
- Author:
- Jennifer Howe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Since COVID-19 spread out of China in January 2020, it has caused unprecedented damage to the global economy and national health systems. The virus also having serious ramifications for conflicts throughout the world. This paper reviews the literature up to its time of writing in July 2020 in order to assess how the coronavirus crisis has impacted conflicts in Southeast Asia. The paper found that the pandemic has been detrimental to conflict resolution in the region—it has hampered peacebuilding efforts and contributed to rising tensions. Moreover, the outbreak has enabled extremist organizations to operate more freely and make government lockdowns and the economic downturn a part of their recruitment messaging. Conflict-affected populations are confronted by the dual impact of disease and violence—health systems have been weakened by years of conflict, violence is obstructing the delivery of aid, and forcibly displaced communities are living in unsanitary and crowded camps, incapable of handling a viral outbreak. Women in unstable settings are particularly vulnerable as gender-based violence increases, while services essential to their health and wellbeing are being forced to close. The paper concludes with policy recommendations in view of the effects the virus is having on Southeast Asian conflicts. Recommendations emphasize the importance of supporting local peacebuilders and implementing response and recovery measures that work towards a fairer post-pandemic society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, Peacebuilding, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
16886. The role of regional organizations in building cyber resilience: ASEAN and the EU
- Author:
- Eugenio Benincasa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the role of regional organizations in crafting solutions that are able to address both the scale and cross-border nature of cyber threats, as well as the challenges inherent to an anarchical international system. It focuses on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU) and the cybersecurity frameworks they have developed in the last few years. The EU has significantly improved regional cyber resilience and cooperation by setting out ambitious goals, enhancing information sharing and harmonizing practices across its member states. In contrast, ASEAN has a lack of a strong unifying governance or legal framework, which limits the collective capability of the region to capitalize on shared knowledge to prevent and mitigate cyber threats. The paper aims to elaborate on relevant measures that could be implemented in ASEAN based on a comparative analysis with the EU. Despite the stark differences between the two organizations, there is common ground in some areas for the development of policy recommendations aimed at enhancing ASEAN’s cyber resilience, eliminating the need to reinvent the wheel in key policy areas. To this end, this paper analyzes the two organizations’ cybersecurity frameworks in line with the four pillars of cyber capacity building identified by the European Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and adjusted to a regional context: overarching regional strategy, institutional framework for cyber threat prevention and response, harmonization of cybercrime and data privacy legislation, and cyber awareness and hygiene.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, ASEAN, and Regional Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
16887. Far, Far More Than Meets the Eye: Extended Deterrence in Complex Crises in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), brought 41 officials and experts from the United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), along with eight Pacific Forum Young Leaders, all attending in their private capacity, to Maui, Hawaii, Sept. 5-6, 2019 to explore the three countries’ thinking about extended deterrence and prospects for and obstacles to strengthened trilateral security cooperation. A two-move tabletop exercise (TTX) was focused on concerted and coordinated efforts by China and North Korea to revise the status quo in Northeast Asia. Key findings include: Despite political difficulties, there was little difference among participants regarding assessments of the situation and dynamics in Northeast Asia. They were generally aligned and this was evident in responses to the TTX: they sought to prevent opportunism, provide off-ramps for adversaries, and didn’t rush to connect the incidents.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Armed Forces, Crisis Management, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia
16888. Armenia's Foreign Policy: Where values meet constraints
- Author:
- Alexander Iskandaryan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The official foreign policy doctrine of Armenia is called "complementarism"; the idea at the core of this approach is that various foreign policy dimensions can and should complement each other and need not be perceived as mutually exclusive.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Complementarism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, and Armenia
16889. Volkswagen Since World War Two: Rebuilding the Corporate Reputation of the World’s Largest Car Manufacturer
- Author:
- Charlie Harris, Jamie Haworth, Scarlett Mansfield, and Christopher McKenna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxford Centre for Global History
- Abstract:
- The VW badge is a common sight around the world. Driven by millions across Europe and the Americas, Volkswagen automobiles are also familiar to consumers across Latin America, Africa and Asia. The German carmaker’s cultural resonance is hard to miss: most famously, the Volkswagen Beetle ‘Love Bug’ is romanticised in stories of the 1960s counterculture. Alongside the iconic Volkswagen Type 2 camper van, the Beetle came to symbolise freedom and adventure for many young people in the United States. Given this, it is perhaps easy to forget the company’s roots did not exactly emphasise peace and love. Volkswagen started out in late-1930s Germany as a Nazi-funded prestige project; Adolf Hitler took a personal interest in the early development of the Beetle, seeing it as the vehicle that would motorise the Third Reich and displace Ford’s Model T as the “People’s Car”. Burdened with one of the worst origin stories imaginable, Volkswagen needed to put distance between itself and Nazi Germany in the postwar period. To achieve this, it refocused its factory towards delivering the Volkswagen Beetle: a cheap, reliable product that it hoped would appeal to domestic and export markets alike. The iconic car came to be embraced by diverse communities from around the world over the following decades, transforming the German carmaker into a company with a global ubiquity by the 1980s. Its portfolio expanded to include sports cars and trucks, while its factories employed workers across the globe. Entering the new millennium full of ambition, Volkswagen strove for growth in new markets and dominance in long-standing car cultures; in the process, the crisis-prone company attracted a new set of risks to its corporate reputation.
- Topic:
- History, Business, Manufacturing, Automotive Industry, and Reputation
- Political Geography:
- Germany and Global Focus
16890. The Globalization of Mexican Tortillas: GRUMA and the Mass Production of Corn Flour
- Author:
- Rosalía del Carmen Ríos Arreguín, Rebecca Orr, and Christopher McKenna
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- Oxford Centre for Global History
- Abstract:
- In 2001, Disney opened the gates to the California Adventure Park. Billed as a celebration of the history and culture of the Golden State, the park featured Disneyfied versions of Wine Country, the Hollywood Backlot and other Californian landmarks. In the park’s top left corner, stood the Mission Tortilla factory. The attraction run by Disney in partnership with Mission Foods (a division of the GRUMA corporation) showcased ‘the history and the making of the traditional food of ancient and modern Mexico—the tortilla’.1 In the first half of the exhibition, visitors watched a film about the ancient origins of the tortilla and learnt about the lengthy process in which women ground maize into dough. The second half of the exhibition celebrated all things modern. Visitors observed a working factory production line staffed by Mission employees who handed out free tortillas to passing customers. The final room told the story of Mission’s role in transforming the corn tortilla from a dietary staple of the Mexican masses to a Californian delicacy.
- Topic:
- Globalization, History, Food, and Capitalism
- Political Geography:
- North America, Mexico, and United States of America
16891. Fighting Imagined Invasions with Administrative Violence. Racism, Xenophobia and Nativism as a Cause of Statelessness in Myanmar, the Dominican Republic and Assam (India)
- Author:
- Jose-Maria Arraiza, Phyu Zin Aye, and Marina Arraiza Shakirova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Discriminatory policies have the capacity to create statelessness on a massive scale and the majority of stateless persons around the world belong to impoverished minority communities. The intentionality of such discrimination is guided by xenophobia, racism and particularly nativism: the belief that an internal minority with foreign connections is a threat to the nation. Hence, target communities are re-imagined as an enemy invader. This article analyses and compares how such ideologies have resulted in statelessness in the cases of Myanmar, the Dominican Republic and the State of Assam in India. These three scenarios have internal minorities (Rohingya in Myanmar, ethnic Haitians in Dominican Republic and Bengalis in India) that have been represented, based on kinship lines with neighbouring states, as enemy intruders by public officials and institutions. The authors compare how in the three scenarios nativist policies, the erosion of jus soli in citizenship laws and administrative violence have been used to ‘fight’ these imagined invasions and identify common trends.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Citizenship, Discrimination, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, Burma, Caribbean, Dominican Republic, North America, and Myanmar
16892. Addressing Statelessness through the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (‘ICERD’)
- Author:
- Michiel Hoornick
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Discrimination is one of the root causes for deprivation and denial of nationality. This work presents an analysis of the right to nationality under art 5(d)(iii) of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the interpretation of the obligations under art 2, related to this right by its monitoring body, the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. This reflection focuses on obligations regarding deprivation of nationality, acquisition of nationality and other obligations to facilitate and fulfil the right to nationality of the individuals living within its jurisdiction. An assessment is made on the effectiveness of the Convention and its Committee in protecting the right to nationality.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Race, Discrimination, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16893. ‘Legal Identity for All’ and Statelessness Opportunity and Threat at the Junction of Public and Private International Law
- Author:
- Bronwen Manby
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- This article considers the impact of Target 16.9 of the Sustainable Development Goals (‘SDGs’), ‘to provide legal identity for all, including birth registration’ on the objective of eradicating statelessness. This SDG Target has given a significant boost to initiatives for the strengthening of civil registration and identification systems, supported by the United Nations and World Bank. Yet its impact on the resolution of statelessness is not clear, because of the immense complexity of the definition of ‘legal identity’. Proposed definitions, adopted after the target was established, fail to take on board the challenges involved in cross-border recognition of civil status documents and the determination of nationality of a child for parents who hold no documents. The article concludes that SDG Target 16.9 is both an opportunity and a threat. If the objective of providing universal ‘legal identity’ is to have a positive impact for stateless persons there is a need for new engagement with the regulation of civil status in private international law, and new insistence in public international law on legal frameworks that facilitate recognition and registration of the different elements of a person’s identity, including nationality, even and especially where they are officially in doubt. Short cuts in this process risk long delays.
- Topic:
- International Law, Law, Identity, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16894. The Broadening Protection Gap for Stateless Palestinian Refugees in Belgium
- Author:
- Wout Van Doren, Julie Lejeune, Marjan Claes, and Valerie Klein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- This paper reflects upon the issue of statelessness, Palestinians and a recent evolution of Belgian caselaw. When seeking to apply the definition of a ‘stateless person’, as found in art 1 of the 1954 Convention Relating to the Status of Stateless Persons to Palestinians, judges are confronted with specific challenges. Since 2016, divergent standards are developing as to the question of whether, and in which circumstances, Palestinians may be stateless for the purposes of international law. This evolution takes place in a national landscape characterised by a statelessness determination procedure that falls short of standards set out in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Handbook on Protection of Stateless Persons in a number of areas, while a growing number of asylum seekers originating from Palestine are registered over the period 2016–19. This paper exposes, anno 2020, the protection gaps left open by the remarkably divergent approaches to this question taken by the different national actors involved.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Citizenship, Stateless Population, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Palestine, and Belgium
16895. Nomads and the Struggle for a Legal Identity
- Author:
- Heather Alexander
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Over the past century, governments around the world have greatly expanded civil registration and the issuance of identity documents of all kinds. The process of identifying and registering individuals is sometimes called establishing their ‘legal identity’.1 Establishing a legal identity is crucial for people to access many rights.2It is also a basic prerequisite for establishing a nationality. A legal identity is also important for governments to surveil their populations. Yet, as more research is done on the legal identity of nomadic and mobile peoples,3 it is emerging that establishing a legal identity is not easy for them, nor is it a panacea that automatically helps them access their rights. Instead, it can lead to their assimilation.4 This comment summarises my recent research into the establishment of legal identity for nomadic and mobile peoples, uncovering important and disturbing new insights into this fraught process.
- Topic:
- Law, Identity, Nomad, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16896. Rohingyas and the (Il)Legal Quest for an Indian Identity
- Author:
- Tejal Khana
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The arrests of Rohingyas who have tried to obtain Indian identity documents, like the Aadhaar card,1 has been on the rise. Across several states of India, and particularly in the city of Hyderabad, Rohingyas have been held by police under allegations that they are in possession of fake Aadhaar cards.2 Apart from the Aadhaar card, there have also been reported cases of the community acquiring other Indian documents such as the PAN Card,3 Voter ID card and even the Indian passport. Just last year, in May 2019, Mohammed Faisal, a young Rohingya, was arrested at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International airport for posing as an Indian national with a fake passport in an attempt to travel to Indonesia.4 It was later revealed during an investigation that he was able to acquire the Indian passport through his contacts in Hyderabad while his asylum application to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’) was still under consideration. Similar cases continue to occur even in times of the COVID-19 public health emergency. For example, in June 2020, in the southern state of Telangana, five Rohingyas, including three women, were arrested for illegal immigration when they procured Aadhaar cards and Indian passports through the provision of false information.5Prima facie, there seems nothing wrong with these arrests; these are acts of forgery, cheating and giving false declaration — all of which violate Indian laws, particularly the Indian Penal Code and the IndianPassports Act.6 However, it is important to note the overall context within which these crimes have been committed. Two entities are prominent in this context. On the one hand are the Rohingyas, one of the world’s most persecuted stateless minorities, who have been arbitrarily denied nationality by Myanmar and are without the citizenship of any country. On the other hand, is India, the world’s largest democracy, which has held a good reputation for being a host to refugees for several years. This commentary does not justify crime in any way. Rather, by examining the case of Rohingyas committing crimes against Indian laws, it seeks to draw attention to responsibility on the part of sovereign states when stateless persons — that is, persons without the citizenship of any country — commit crimes against sovereign laws
- Topic:
- Rohingya, Identity, Stateless Population, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
16897. Digital ID and Risk of Statelessness
- Author:
- Grace Mutung'u and Isaac Rutenberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- tate issued digital identity is trending in sub-Saharan Africa,1 and Kenya has not been left behind. The government of Kenya launched the National Integrated Identity Management System (‘NIIMS’) in March 2019.2 Dubbed ‘Huduma Namba’, which translates to ‘service number’ in Swahili, the programme envisages a centralisation of identity programmes and the issuance of new unique personal identifiers to all citizens and registered foreigners in Kenya, but it has not been without problems. The legal situation for NIIMS is defined by an Executive Order, an amendment to the national ID law, Huduma Namba Regulations and a judgement from the High Court. Through Executive Order No 1 of 2018, the President directed the development of NIIMS to create and manage a central master population database, to be the ‘single source of truth’ on all Kenyan citizens and foreign nationals residing in Kenya.3 NIIMS was to serve as a reference point for personal data for Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and other approved stakeholders.
- Topic:
- Governance, Identity, Digitalization, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
16898. Mapping Minorities’ Vulnerability to Hate Speech and Denationalisation with a Focus on East and Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Katalin Berenyi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- This paper explores whether minority groups are more vulnerable to hate speech, human rights violations, denationalisation and mass atrocities in light of the deliberate lack of state protection through the lens of recent incidents in East and Southeast Asia. The paper also examines the role of social media giant Facebook in spreading hate speech online and whether it may have had any liabilities in relation to the hateful posts that were spread online against the Rohingyas in Myanmar and, more recently, against the Muslim minorities living in the State of Assam in India. The paper concludes by (1) advising policy-makers to adopt and implement strong anti-hate speech laws, clearly criminalising both online and offline hate speech on the national level, as well as to (2) refrain from denationalising minority groups leaving them stateless or at the risk of statelessness and thus avoid instrumentalising nationality for political gains.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Hate Speech, Stateless Population, and Nationality
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
16899. Statelessness in the European Union Exploring the Potential Value of Union Citizenshi
- Author:
- Anne Brekoo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Nearly half a million people find themselves stateless within the Member States of the European Union. Lacking an overarching mechanism to address statelessness and its consequences at the EU level, the problem remains. In a different citizenship context, however, the EU has demonstrated that it is capable of devising a framework of rights that transcends national boundaries: citizenship of the EU. With the aim of inspiring renewed debates on, and reconsideration of, the institution of EU citizenship as a potential approach to mitigating the human impact of statelessness, this article examines the value that EU citizenship might have for stateless persons.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Citizenship, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16900. Feminist Foresight in Statelessness Century-Old Citizenship Equality Campaigns
- Author:
- Deirdre Brennan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- It may have appeared to many working in the statelessness sector, or those campaigning against gender discriminatory nationality laws, that until the launch of the Global Campaign for Equal Nationality Rights in 2014, efforts to eradicate such laws were largely only coordinated on a national level. This article, however, uncovers a hidden period in statelessness history: the citizenship equality campaigns of the early 1900s. Through an exploration of these campaigns, their vibrant tactics and eccentric characters, this article provides a feminist revisionist history of statelessness activism and academia that aims to adjust dominant narratives in contemporary statelessness literature.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Feminism, Equality, and Stateless Population
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus