Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 5 Years

16701. Driving Migrant Inclusion through Social Innovation: Lessons for Cities in a Pandemic

Author:: Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The rapid arrival of millions of asylum seekers and migrants in Europe in 2015–16 forced cities both large and small to rethink their approach to immigrant inclusion. Many localities, recognizing the newcomers’ diverse backgrounds and at times complex needs, began to experiment with innovative models of service provision, including by working with nongovernmental actors and involving community members more directly in the design and implementation of projects. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced European cities to confront a whole new set of challenges. Among them, how to support residents—including refugees and other migrants—amid social-distancing orders, all while public services operate at reduced capacity and in the face of likely budget cuts. This MPI Europe-International Organization for Migration (IOM) report explores key lessons cities can draw from the social innovation that accompanied the 2015–16 arrivals to help them weather the challenges brought by the pandemic. The study’s findings come in part from interviews conducted with representatives of municipalities and civil-society organizations in Austria, Greece, Italy, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Spain.
Topic:: Migration, Employment, Immigrants, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16702. Navigating the Future of Work: The Role of Immigrant-Origin Workers in the Changing U.S. Economy

Author:: Julia Gelatt, Jeanne Batalova, and Randy Capps
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Immigrant-origin workers—that is, immigrants and their U.S.-born children—have been the main drivers of U.S. workforce growth in recent years. They were responsible for 83 percent of labor force growth between 2010 and 2018, at which point they made up 28 percent of all U.S. workers. Looking ahead, all growth in the working-age population is projected to come from immigrant-origin adults through 2035. Yet research on the future of work in the United States has largely overlooked this important segment of the workforce. This report examines the jobs held by immigrant-origin workers and third/higher-generation workers (those born in the United States to U.S.-born parents), and which of these jobs are likely to grow versus decline due to automation, offshoring, and other trends. It also considers the implications of the changing mix of jobs in the U.S. economy for both workforce development and immigration policy. Among the findings of this data analysis: Similar shares of Immigrant-origin and third/higher-generation workers held “jobs of the future” (22 percent versus 24 percent) and declining jobs (26 percent versus 29 percent) in 2018. Latinos—both those of immigrant origins and the third/higher generation—were less likely than workers in other major racial or ethnic groups to hold jobs of the future and more likely to hold declining jobs. Black immigrant-origin workers were overrepresented in jobs of the future in 2018, particularly in health care and health-care support, while third/higher-generation Black workers were more likely to hold declining jobs, such as office and administrative support occupations. This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative’s home page.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Economy, Immigrants, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16703. Managing the Pandemic and Its Aftermath: Economies, Jobs, and International Migration in the Age of COVID-19

Author:: Demetrios G. Papademetriou
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic’s immediate costs, measured in lives lost and damaged, have been appalling and continue to rise. In addition, its effects on individuals’ livelihoods and economies around the world have been deep and are likely to be long lasting. While saving lives was the near-exclusive focus during the first phase of the crisis, governments are now trying to strike a delicate balance between preventing further economic damage by reopening parts of their economies, while managing the obvious health risks of doing so. In the international mobility and migration arenas—policy areas enormously affected by the health and economic effects of the pandemic—this reflection considers both how these fields have fared thus far and the challenges that lay ahead. It first examines how measures put in place to stop the spread of the virus have affected family, labor, and humanitarian migration. It then highlights the thorny questions, as well as some opportunities, policymakers will face going forward. Among the critical questions: How will countries protect those most vulnerable to the disease and to economic precariousness? Will this become a moment in which governments seek to recalibrate the global trading system, aiming to increase economic self-reliance without falling into protectionism? And will the pandemic prompt countries to rethink aspects of their immigration systems, including how they screen arrivals, the number and types of foreign workers admitted, and the strategies for helping newcomers integrate into a new society?
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

16704. Building Welcome from the Ground up: European Small and Rural Communities Engaging in Refugee Resettlement

Author:: Liam Patuzzi, Monica Andriescu, and Antonio Pietropolli
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Immigration to EU countries is largely an urban phenomenon, but small and rural communities have in recent years been more active in welcoming newcomers—including resettled refugees. This has sparked considerable interest in the idea of “rural welcoming,” but gaps remain in understanding how to make the most of resettlement to such localities, to the benefit of both refugees and receiving communities. While Europe’s small and rural areas vary considerably in their economic and social characteristics, shaping the context in which resettlement occurs, this study identifies some important commonalities. It draws its findings from interviews with resettled refugees, local officials, public service providers, and representatives of civil society in receiving communities that were selected for their small size, rural nature, and because they are situated within countries with varying levels of resettlement experience (Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden). This research sheds light on both opportunities and challenges for small receiving communities and the refugees who are resettled there. For refugees, these can include receiving more individualized support, though specialized services may not always be available, and the potential to form strong relationships with neighbors in what are often tight-knit communities, though these same community networks can sometimes be challenging to become part of. For receiving communities, resettlement may be able to support local businesses and social revitalization, but as the number of refugees they receive is often modest, they may need to fold resettlement into a broader approach to local development to have the desired impact. A number of policy approaches can help countries and communities seize these opportunities and overcome the challenges. These include adjusting the predeparture orientation refugees receive before resettlement to include discussion of what life is like in the destination country's small towns and rural areas as well as its cities; supporting receiving communities as they prepare for refugees’ arrival and refugees as they work toward long-term integration; and weaving resettlement into local development strategies. This report was written as part of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project, which is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries. More MPI Europe research for the EU-FRANK project can be found on this series page.
Topic:: Immigration, Employment, Refugees, Resettlement, and Rural
Political Geography:: Europe

16705. Building a New Regional Migration System: Redefining U.S. Cooperation with Mexico and Central America

Author:: Andrew Selee and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Migration between the United States and neighboring countries to the south is an enduring if ever-shifting phenomenon. While the COVID-19 pandemic and measures put in place to stop the spread of the virus have severely limited mobility, longer-standing questions about how best to manage regional migration remain as important as ever. These include how to address the mixed movement of unauthorized economic migrants and those fleeing persecution, with many families and unaccompanied children among them, and how to facilitate the legal movement of workers to meet labor demand and make the most of the region’s human capital. The Trump administration has largely focused on enhancing border controls and sharply narrowing access to asylum at the border, with the aim of deterring migration and turning back those who arrive without authorization to enter. Yet this heavily enforcement-focused strategy is unlikely to be sustainable in the long run. This report puts forward another approach, one that reflect the many faces of migration through the region and that is rooted in closer cooperation with Mexico and Central American countries. Its key element are: expanding opportunities for legal movement by extending seasonal work visas to nationals of countries in Central America that have the greatest migration pressures; re-establishing asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, but streamlining processes to ensure fair and timely decisions; professionalizing border enforcement in Mexico and the United States to make it both more effective and more humane; and investing in economic and institutional development in Central America to address the forces driving people to leave their homes. While a transition from one approach to another cannot happen overnight—and indeed careful sequencing of policy changes will be essential to avoid triggering a surge in migration throughout the region—it is essential if the United States and its partners are to move the needle towards safer, more orderly, and legal migration.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Border Control, Refugees, and Economy
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

16706. The Next Generation of Refugee Resettlement in Europe: Ambitions for the Future and How to Realize Them

Author:: Susan Fratzke and Lena Kainz
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Europe’s role within the global refugee resettlement landscape has changed significantly in recent years. Some EU Member States, such as Germany and Sweden, have expanded their resettlement programs, while others, including Romania and Lithuania, have launched new ones. This growth, coupled with the United States’ dramatic cuts to its refugee admissions, has meant that more than 40 percent of all refugees resettled through the UN High Commissioner for Refugees since 2017 have found a new home in Europe—up from 8 percent in 2007. This report looks at how investments in shared infrastructure at the EU level and growing resettlement experience among Member States offer a strong foundation upon which European resettlement efforts can build. It also explores what ambitious European resettlement policy could accomplish and what steps EU and national leaders would need to take to realize this vision. Among the many questions this report examines are: How can engagement in resettlement be motivated and sustained at the national level? And what elements are needed to build world-class resettlement systems in Europe—from improvements in selection and departure operations, to commitments to robust monitoring and evaluation, to investments in partnerships with first-asylum countries and between central governments and receiving communities in destination countries. This is the final report by the Migration Policy Institute Europe in a multiyear series of studies produced as part of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project. The EU-FRANK project is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Refugees, and Resettlement
Political Geography:: Europe

16707. New Approaches to Climate Change and Migration: Building the Adaptive Capacity of Mobile Populations

Author:: Carol Farbotko
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: It is often assumed that there is a direct link between climate change and human mobility, and that mobility is evidence of a failure to adapt to changing conditions. The reality is much more complex. Worsening climate conditions can lead to a variety of mobility outcomes: some individuals or communities may be trapped in place, while others may choose to stay and develop local adaptation strategies; some may choose to move to mitigate risks or diversify household incomes, while others may be forced to leave. And all of this is occurring against a backdrop of globalization and urbanization, in which mobility and translocal networks are already significant parts of many people’s lives. This report examines the concept of “adaptive capacity” and how it can be useful in understand the relationship between climate change and migration, as well as the ways mobility can be a strategic choice—or a source of greater vulnerability. Drawing on examples from the Pacific Islands, Asia, and other regions, the report analyzes the limitations of existing responses to climate change and outlines an alternative, adaptation pathways model that is flexible and emphasizes the involvement of affected communities. Adopting an adaptation pathways approach, the author writes, could help avoid a common pitfall of climate change adaptation measures: that they are often top down and do not integrate local knowledge, cultures, and other important contextual factors. Failure to consult local communities can lead measures to backfire or create greater vulnerabilities elsewhere, while a more participatory, flexible approach can bring to light important local insights and yield stronger solutions that are able to respond to future developments.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16708. How Will International Migration Policy and Sustainable Development Affect Future Climate-Related Migration?

Author:: Robert McLeman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Extreme-weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and intense heat, are shaping migration and displacement in countries around the world, and climate change is likely to make events like these more intense and more frequent. The effects of such conditions vary across regions and can spark a range of migration outcomes—both increases and decrease in movement along existing routes, the creation of new routes, and growth in the number of people who may want or need to move but who are unable to do so. But while the potential of climate change to affect human mobility is widely recognized, estimating future climate-related migration and displacement is made difficult by uncertainty surrounding the future of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and of sustainable development and migration policies. This Transatlantic Council on Migration report describes the findings of a first-of-its-kind exercise to explore how future climatic conditions under standardized greenhouse gas concentration scenarios may affect climate-related drivers of migration and displacement, and how international development and migration policies may mediate (or exacerbate) migration outcomes. It considers how this may play out in two periods (2020–50 and 2050–2100), and in top source regions for international migration: East and Southeast Asia, South and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Law, Refugees, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16709. Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Promising Practices and Ongoing Challenges

Author:: Kate Hooper and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Seasonal worker programs represent one of the few ways in which low-skilled workers can migrate legally to the European Union, enabling them to work in sectors such as agriculture, hospitality, and tourism. Countries have taken different approaches to selecting seasonal workers, with some recruiting from within the European Union and others soliciting workers from third countries. But while some of these programs are long-established, they can struggle to meet labor demands swiftly while ensuring that workers are treated fairly and will return home when their permits expire. The European Commission has aimed to create common standards for seasonal workers’ admission, residence, and rights across Europe and to address longstanding issues such as worker exploitation, visa overstays, and hiring through the informal economy. As European policymakers take stock of these Commission-driven harmonization efforts to date, this brief by MPI Europe and the Research Unit of the Expert Council of German Foundations on Integration and Migration (SVR) explores some of the challenges common to these programs, drawing on examples in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. It also highlights practices that can help maximize the benefits for migrants, employers, and countries of destination and origin alike. The authors sketch a number of principles to guide future reforms. Among them: prioritizing more transparent and standardized recruitment procedures, greater monitoring and outreach to protect seasonal workers, and strategies to help deliver on the thus far limited investments to support economic and social development in sending countries.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Economy, Recruitment, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Europe

16710. Which English Learners Count When? Understanding State EL Subgroup Definitions in ESSA Reporting

Author:: Julie Sugarman
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Data about English Learner (EL) students in the United States are more plentiful than ever. Under the federal Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA), states must report a wide range of information about their students’ English language arts and math standardized test scores, graduation rates, and more. They must also break these data down to show how students with certain characteristics—subgroups including racial/ethnic groups, students with disabilities, and ELs—are doing. This wealth of data is meant to help policymakers, practitioners, and community members identify schools that need to do a better job of helping ELs learn. But for this to be possible, it must be clear who states are including in the EL subgroup—something that varies across types of data and that is not always clearly marked on state student performance reports or online dashboards. This brief aims to help data users understand how the composition of the EL subgroup varies, and why understanding these technical differences matters when making decisions about how ELs and schools are faring. It also discusses how breaking data out further for certain groups of ELs such as newcomers, students with interrupted formal education, and long-term ELs could benefit decision-making.
Topic:: Education, Immigrants, Language, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16711. One Year after the U.S.-Mexico Agreement: Reshaping Mexico’s Migration Policies

Author:: Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: On June 7, 2019, after months of heightened Central American migration through Mexico to the United States, the Mexican and U.S. governments signed an agreement to work together to manage the migration of Central American asylum seekers and other migrants. This ushered in an intense period of policy and institutional change that is reshaping Mexico’s immigration enforcement and humanitarian protection systems. After being threatened with steep tariffs on Mexican goods, Mexico agreed to step up enforcement efforts, accepted the expansion of the U.S. Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP, also known as Remain in Mexico) along the U.S.-Mexico border, and promised to increase collaboration with the United States to disrupt migrant-smuggling networks. In turn, the United States pledged to expedite the asylum cases of migrants waiting in Mexico under MPP and invest in economic development efforts in southern Mexico and Central America to address the drivers of migration. While the full impact of the deal will likely take years to unfold, this policy brief takes stock of what has changed in the first year since its signing. It charts trends in migrant apprehensions and returns by Mexican authorities, and the volume of asylum applications filed in Mexico. The brief also examines challenges that have intensified during this time, including the precarious conditions many migrants face while waiting in Mexican border communities for their U.S. asylum cases to be heard and the COVID-19 pandemic that hit in early 2020. Looking ahead, the brief highlights opportunities for further policy development.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, Deportation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

16712. Native Language Assessments for K-12 English Learners: Policy Considerations and State Practices

Author:: Julie Sugarman and Leslie Villegas
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Standardized tests play a central role in the U.S. education system, shaping how states hold schools accountable for ensuring that all students have equitable access to a quality education. Schools and districts sometimes also use testing data for high-stakes decisions about teacher pay and whether students can move on to the next grade. It is thus crucial that standardized assessments are able to accurately capture what students know and can do. But for English Learner (EL) students, test scores may not fully reflect how much they have learned in a subject if they cannot demonstrate their knowledge in English. The federal Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) encourages states to consider offering native language assessments as a test accommodation for ELs. Yet official guidance and research are limited on how to use such assessments effectively, and only 31 states and the District of Columbia use such tests. Depending on factors such as students’ English proficiency levels and the language(s) in which they receive instruction, these tests may be a good fit for some ELs but not others. This policy brief explores key policy and practical questions for states considering implementing or expanding their use of native language assessments. It also provides an overview of the choices made by the jurisdictions that already use them—including the subjects and languages in which native language assessments are offered and how they were created. Finally, the brief offers recommendations for the federal government, states, and local actors that could help build understanding of when these tests work well and how to make them more widely available.
Topic:: Education, Immigrants, Language, Integration, and ESL
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16713. Measuring Up? Using Monitoring and Evaluation to Make Good on the Promise of Refugee Sponsorship

Author:: Hanne Beirens and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Interest in refugee sponsorship has taken root in a growing number of European countries since the 2015–16 migration crisis. Also called community or private sponsorship, or humanitarian corridors in certain contexts, proponents of engaging private individuals and civil-society groups in refugee resettlement tout this model’s ability to provide refugees with a warm, supportive welcome and to give sponsors a rejuvenated sense of community and purpose. Yet even as sponsorship programs are piloted and implemented in more countries, there is relatively limited evidence of whether they are living up to these high expectations and what program elements are most effective. This issue brief examines how building a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system into sponsorship programs can help answer these and other important questions. It highlights the value M&E can bring—from strengthening political commitment to sponsorship, to increasing accountability and facilitating improvements within a program. It also lays out key challenges policymakers and program designers will need to tackle to get an M&E system off the ground. The pause in humanitarian protection programs forced by the coronavirus pandemic comes at a critical time in the development of many sponsorship schemes. Their relative youth could leave them more fragile as uncertainty looms over whether and when countries will resume their protection operations. Stronger M&E can help give decisionmakers the confidence—and evidence—they need to make smart decisions about launching, managing, or expanding a sponsorship scheme.
Topic:: Refugees, Immigrants, Resettlement, Asylum, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

16714. Venezuelan Migration, Crime, and Misperceptions: A Review of Data from Colombia, Peru, and Chile

Author:: Dany Bahar, Brian Dooley, and Andrew Selee
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: More than 5 million Venezuelans have left their country, and the majority—more than 4 million—have moved elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean. While some politicians and pundits have claimed the new arrivals are leading to an uptick in crime, few studies conducted in the region have examined whether and what type of relationship exists between immigration and crime. This issue brief explores these questions by looking at migration and crime data from the three countries with the largest number of Venezuelan migrants: Colombia, Peru, and Chile. To do so, it draws on a mix of national and subnational datasets, some publicly available and others obtained by the authors through requests to government agencies. Analysis of data from 2019 suggests that, for the most part, Venezuelan migrants commit substantially fewer crimes—and certainly fewer violent crimes—than the native born, relative to their share in the overall population. This signals that public perceptions that immigration is driving up crime rates are misplaced. In discussing the policy implications of this analysis, the authors point to areas for further research and policy discussion, including the need to pay special attention to border regions, in which migration and crime dynamics often differ from those elsewhere in the country, and the value of actively addressing newcomers’ legal status and labor market integration.
Topic:: Crime, Migration, Border Control, Employment, Trafficking, Immigrants, and Integration
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, Venezuela, Chile, and Peru

16715. Brexit on the Backburner: Citizens’ Rights and the Implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in a Pandemic

Author:: Aliyyah Ahad and Monica Andriescu
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Just weeks after the United Kingdom’s formal departure from the European Union on January 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe with full force. The outbreak drew public and political attention away from the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, while also straining many public administrations, including agencies responsible for residency applications. With the clock ticking down on the transition period, set to end on December 31, 2020, many EU countries have yet to announce the details of the systems that will govern the future status and rights of their UK-national residents. The United Kingdom is further along, having rolled out its pilot EU Settlement Scheme to resident EU nationals in 2019. But of the 26 EU countries with responsibilities for citizens’ rights, only Italy, Malta, and the Netherlands had launched registration schemes before the pandemic began. And even where implementation had begun, many systems faced setbacks as in-person government services were suspended by lockdown measures. This has created considerable uncertainty for UK nationals in EU countries, and EU nationals in the United Kingdom—as well as their families—who will have six months after the transition period ends to acquire a new post-Brexit status. As this policy brief details, the pandemic has put some in an even more precarious position, including families with third-country-national members that have been separated by travel restrictions, and the newly unemployed, who may no longer meet the conditions of the EU Free Movement Directive (the foundation of the withdrawal agreement). This brief sets out steps governments on both sides of the Channel can take in the coming months to “pandemic-proof” their implementation plans. These include: investing in smart outreach to would-be applicants, streamlining status-adjustment processes, and supporting civil-society groups that can help applicants through the process.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

16716. Educating English Learners during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Policy Ideas for States and School Districts

Author:: Julie Sugarman and Melissa Lazarín
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As schools closed their physical classrooms in March 2020 due to COVID-19, educators across the United States reported that English Learners (ELs), immigrant students, and students in low-income families were particularly difficult to reach with online instruction. The pandemic and the sudden, forced transition to remote learning have brought into sharp relief the inequities that many of these students face in often under-resourced schools. Despite significant effort on the part of educators to support their students’ continued learning through Spring 2020, these efforts fell short for many ELs and students in immigrant families. Among the most notable barriers: a lack of access to digital devices and broadband, school–family communication gaps, parents’ limited capacity to support home learning, and inadequate remote learning resources and training for teachers on how to use them effectively. With the 2020–21 school year underway, and many schools continuing to operate partly or entirely remotely, this policy brief takes stock of the impact schools’ response to the pandemic is having on ELs and immigrant-background students. It identifies key challenges states and school districts must overcome, and outlines policy recommendations to help them ensure these students are adequately supported in this academic year and beyond. These include prioritizing ELs for in-person instruction when schools buildings begin to reopen, professional development on digital instruction that includes a focus on working with ELs, strategies for strengthening parental engagement, and funding mechanisms to shield high-needs students from the brunt of expected budget cuts. As the authors note, “depending on how states and districts adapt in the coming year, schools could emerge from this crisis having built stronger and more resilient systems on a foundation of equity for ELs and immigrant-background students.”
Topic:: Education, Science and Technology, Immigration, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16717. Supporting Immigrant and Refugee Families through Home Visiting: Innovative State and Local Approaches

Author:: Caitlin Katsiaficas
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Home visiting programs are increasingly popular in communities across the United States. A two-generation model for health and social service provision, home visiting is designed to support both young children and their caretakers to promote their health, well-being, and long-term outcomes. For immigrant and refugee families, home visiting can also offer integration-related supports, such as by helping parents navigate unfamiliar early childhood, health, and social service systems. But even though they make up an important segment of the at-risk populations these programs aim to serve, immigrant and refugee families are less frequently enrolled in home visiting programs than families in which the parents are U.S. born. This brief highlights strategies adopted by some states and counties to address this gap. To do so, it looks at four case studies: King County, Washington; San Diego County, California; Illinois; and Massachusetts. Working with different populations and in varied funding environments, these state and local efforts illustrate key steps policymakers and program administrators can take to boost the equity and quality of home visiting services for immigrant families, such as by: explicitly including at-risk immigrant families in program needs assessments and prioritizing them for services alongside other at-risk families; incorporating community input into program design; adjusting procurement processes to level the playing field for community-based organizations that seek to offer home visiting services and are well positioned to connect with families of different linguistic and cultural backgrounds; and supporting research on what program models work well for immigrant and refugee families.
Topic:: Education, Refugees, Immigrants, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16718. Will International Migration Governance Survive the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Author:: Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The toolbox of international migration governance has few instruments for dealing with the migration-related challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Most international agreements on migration are designed to aid people on the move and to assist states in dealing with this movement, voluntary or forced. Yet the pandemic is a disaster characterized more by immobility than movement. While some migrants have been sent back to their origin countries or compelled to return due to job losses, many others have been stranded in destination countries by border closures and travel restrictions, and some would-be migrants have been unable to move abroad as intended. The most recent addition to the migration governance toolbox—the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration—does, however, offer states useful guidance. As this policy brief discusses, the objectives outlined in the compact include some that have gained added, real-time urgency during the pandemic and others that will be essential as states work to restart international migration safely. This brief also considers how the pandemic and its economic fallout have affected the relationship between migration and development, including in terms of its impacts on migrant workers and remittances. With remittances predicted to drop by at least 20 percent globally in 2020 compared to 2019, the effects on remittance-dependent countries will be particularly severe. This may spread the pandemic-induced economic pain even to places that have been relatively less affected by the virus itself. Looking ahead, this brief considers how greater cooperation between states and with multilateral agencies, civil-society organizations, the private sector, and philanthropies can assist in the immediate pandemic response, as well as in efforts to rebuild lost livelihoods and, eventually, reopen legal migration channels.
Topic:: Migration, Governance, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16719. Rethinking the U.S.-Mexico Border Immigration Enforcement System: A Policy Road Map

Author:: Doris Meissner
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The immigration enforcement regime at the U.S.-Mexico border offers a vivid example of how existing policies, laws, and resource investments are markedly out of step with new migration realities and future needs. A border enforcement system designed to address the once-dominant flows of single adults from Mexico seeking to enter the United States illegally for work is ill prepared to deal with more complex mixed flows of families and unaccompanied children from Central America, some seeking humanitarian protection, others opportunity. Consistent with its world view of immigration as threat, the Trump administration has responded by shutting down any meaningful access to humanitarian protection and asylum, by invoking a public health authority to expel more than 205,000 arrivals during the COVID-19 pandemic, and by constructing hundreds of miles of border barriers. Yet these strategies cannot succeed over the long term, nor are they consistent with U.S. law and international agreements and principles on protection. In this road map, MPI Senior Fellow and former U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) Commissioner Doris Meissner outlines some of the steps to a more effective approach, one that builds on border management as an enduring function. Rather than a sole focus on thwarting illegal arrivals, successful border management requires cross-agency and cross-governmental collaboration that marries effective border security with fair, humane enforcement. This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which is generating a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative’s home page.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Immigration, Governance, Border Control, Asylum, and Deportation
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

16720. At the Starting Gate: The Incoming Biden Administration’s Immigration Plans

Author:: Doris Meissner and Michelle Mittelstadt
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: President-elect Joe Biden pledged during the campaign to reverse some of the most restrictive immigration actions undertaken during Donald Trump’s four years in office, including family separation and a travel ban on nationals from majority-Muslim countries. He also vowed to temporarily halt deportations, reinstate the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, increase refugee admissions, and halt construction of the border wall. This policy brief outlines some of the incoming administration’s top immigration priorities and examines challenges and opportunities ahead. Drawing on existing and forthcoming policy ideas from MPI’s Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, the brief sketches several proposals that could begin to shape a U.S. immigration system that advances the national interest going forward. The near-total shutdown of asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, for example, does not represent a long-term strategy nor is it consistent with longstanding U.S. values. Effective long-term solutions to deal with mixed flows of economic and humanitarian migrants entail processes to provide fair, efficient processing of asylum cases, including by having the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Asylum Division oversee the merits of border asylum cases to completion—an MPI recommendation the Biden campaign embraced. The brief, among other proposals, also recommends the creation of multiagency reception centers near the border for one-stop screening of arrivals and speedy turnover to the relevant agencies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Border Control, Employment, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16721. The Divergent Trajectories of the Global Migration and Refugee Compacts: Implementation amid Crisis

Author:: Lena Kainz, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The world has changed dramatically since the international community came together in December 2018 to adopt the Global Compact on Refugees and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. Two years on, national governments and UN agencies are working to implement the compacts in an environment of new and intensifying challenges, including those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasingly severe impacts of climate change. Given the significant political energy invested in the compacts, there is immense pressure to turn the commitments made on paper into reality, challenges or not. And while the migration landscape continues to change, the movement of people across borders remains at the heart of many pressing issues, including public health, economic recovery, and social inequality. This policy brief examines how implementation of the two compacts has played out thus far, highlighting areas in which the pacts have lived up to or fallen short of expectations. It also identifies sticking points and opportunities at the intersection of the compacts that merit greater attention. To do so, the brief draws on interviews with government officials and UN agency representatives in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, as well as an in-depth review of countries’ implementation plans and progress updates.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Immigrants, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16722. Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army

Author:: J. P. Clark and C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Within the context of Europe, the US Army must develop a force posture that best navigates the tensions between deterring or defeating armed conflict at an acceptable cost, successfully competing below armed conflict, and maintaining global responsiveness and institutional flexibility through the global operating model and dynamic force employment. While Russia’s economy, and consequently military capability will likely shrink over the next 10 years, which can make them more dangerous as the Kremlin continues to try to punch above its weight. The ideal force posture needs to accomplish a range of on-going and contingency missions and also be adaptive enough to remain viable despite any number of potential swings in resources, military balance, or the domestic politics of allies. This study recommends five possible strategic approaches and specifies what conditions and priorities optimize each. The principal investigators recommend investing in a multidomain alliance. This strategic approach enables the joint force and multinational partners to get the most of their capabilities and makes the best use of the Army’s top modernization priorities, such as long-range fires in a way that alters the strategic balance of a theater to avert a potentially catastrophic, albeit low probability, scenario of armed conflict. More importantly, this strategic approach is far more stable in a crisis, as it does not place policymakers in having to rush this critical, escalatory capability into theater at a moment of high tension. Moreover, invest in a multidomain alliance has the flexibility to allow a later build-up of heavy forces if conditions still warrant.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Alliance, Army, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

16723. An Army Transformed: USINDOPACOM Hypercompetition and US Army Theater Design

Author:: Mr. Nathan P. Freier, John Schaus, and Prof. William G. Braun III
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The United States faces a hypercompetitive geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region, arguably the most consequential theater for US national interests over the coming decades. Although the United States has created exquisite military capabilities to counter insurgencies and fight terrorists, rivals like China have developed a whole-of-government toolkit focused on expanding their span of control and freedom of action, separating the United States from its allies, and deterring US leaders from greater engagement in East Asia. China is actively transforming its military forces, with an eye toward defeating the United States in the event of armed hostilities. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is also creatively employing its military and paramilitary assets strategically to outmaneuver the United States and partners in meaningful gray zone approaches. The PRC enjoys strategic depth and increasingly operates on internal or heavily protected lines of communication while demonstrating the ability to threaten American interests with a variety of multi-domain capabilities and forces. Meeting this challenge will require joint transformation to a more hypercompetitive theater design. Army adoption of the four transformational roles of grid, enabler, multi-domain warfighter, and capability and capacity generator will be essential to realizing this more hypercompetitive Joint theater approach.
Topic:: Army, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and Joint Operations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

16724. Rise and Fall? The Rise and Fall of ISIS in Libya

Author:: Azeem Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph places events in Libya since 2011 into their historical and social context and argues a form of radical Islamism, linked to long-standing national defiance of outside control, remains a factor even after the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This entrenched radicalism means extremist Islamist groups may still make a renewed bid for power until the current civil war is resolved. At the time of this writing, the military campaign by the Libyan National Army has stalled outside Tripoli. Now is the time for the United States and the wider international community to step up and help Libya transition to a unitary government with conventional elections. If this fails to happen and ISIS is able to exploit the current chaos, the hard-won victory over the group in Libya may yet turn out to have been illusory.
Topic:: Civil War, Radicalization, Islamic State, Conflict, Islamism, Khalifa Haftar, and Muammar Gaddafi
Political Geography:: Libya and North America

16725. A Policy Response to Islamic State Extremist Fighter Battlefield Migration

Author:: Dr. Robert J. Bunker
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: June 2014 to December 2017 represented the high tide of radical Islamist (Salafi-jihadist) territorial control under the authority of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. This monograph analyzes and provides policy response options for US national security and Army planners concerning the potential for postterritorial caliphate battlefield migration by the sizable contingent of battle-hardened Islamic State foreign fighters situated within various enclaves in Syria and Iraq. The monograph achieves these ends by discussing Islamic State territorial eras and demographics; offering an overview of the initial inflows of these fighters into the territorial caliphate, outflows to the United States, and lateral transfers to new battlefields, as well as mentioning special issues related to Islamic State women and children; highlighting and analyzing the four strategic options available to the Islamic State in its postterritorial caliphate phase; and offering senior US policy makers and planners options for counterbattlefield migration policy responses. These options pertain to policies focused on extremists and the Islamic State as an organization and embedded within the context of higher-level US foreign policies toward Syria and Iraq. Additionally, recommendations for counterforeign terrorist fighter programs and the Joint force are provided.
Topic:: Insurgency, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Islamism, Army, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

16726. Mission Command of Multi-Domain Operations

Author:: Mark Balboni, John A. Bonin, Robert Mundell, and Doug Orsi
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This research monograph explores the Army’s emerging concept of multi-domain operations and its implications on the mission command approach. The transition to multi-domain operations changes the traditional view of how Army commanders and staffs conduct operations in the physical environment to include simultaneously operations in the information environment within the competition continuum. This monograph will utilize the introduction of the aircraft during World War I as a historical case study for the integration of new domains. The Army has integrated new domains in the past and this example provides the historical context for the challenges involving integration of new domains. An overview and analysis of what multi-domain operations are will provide a baseline understanding of how multi-domain operations are changing not only how we fight but also how the Army must change roles and responsibilities to allow the Joint force to compete across the competition continuum, especially below armed conflict. The transition to multi-domain operations will require new processes. Changes will be required not only to the physical systems employed but also to Joint professional military education, Joint and Army doctrine, and headquarters staff structures as leaders and their staffs will require different skills to operate in this new environment.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, World War I, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

16727. 2019: A Changing International Order? Implications for the Security Environment

Author:: Christopher Ankersen, Prof. William G. Braun III, Ferry de Kerckhove, Carol V. Evans, Kathryn M. Fisher, Samit Ganguly, Anna Geis, Sara K. McGuire, Kim Richard Nossal, Ben Rowswell, and Stefanie Von Hlatky
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: KCIS2019 examined the implications of the changing international order for international security. It studied the hypercompetitive, multipolar environment in which we find ourselves, marked by a persistent struggle for influence and position within a “grey zone” of competition. This edited collection features contributions from academic and military experts who have examined the future of the liberal international order and what is at stake. These evidence-based examinations discuss the challenges to the order, and why it has been so difficult to articulate a compelling narrative to support the continuation of American leadership.
Topic:: Security, International Affairs, Armed Forces, and Army
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

16728. Security Threats, American Pressure, and the Role of Key Personnel: How NATO’s Defence Planning Process is Alleviating the Burden-Sharing Dilemma

Author:: John R. Deni
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: In 2017, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, none of the capability targets identified in NATO’s quadrennial NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) were left on the negotiating table. Previously, capability targets were identified by the alliance’s secretariat, but they remained unfilled as allies failed to assume responsibility for them. This monograph examines the 2014–18 iteration of the NDPP, which represented a stunning turnaround in transatlantic burden sharing. The analysis reveals a combination of factors—the changed threat environment, political pressure from Washington, and the role of “policy entrepreneurs” working within NATO—best explain the alliance’s success in achieving more equitable burden sharing. To reach this conclusion, the monograph relies on an array of primary and secondary sources, including interviews with over two dozen officials directly involved in the 2014–18 NDPP. While incorporating available quantitative data on alliance defense spending, the monograph primarily focuses on process tracing as the most effective qualitative methodology for revealing the story behind the 2014–18 NDPP. Policy makers will find this monograph particularly useful because it draws key lessons from the 2014–18 NDPP to make several forward-leaning policy recommendations to strengthen and build upon NATO’s burden-sharing successes to date.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

16729. A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition

Author:: Gary J. Schmitt
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: With the United States facing two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as additional security threats from North Korea, Iran, and jihadist terrorism, a critical advantage for the United States is its global network of alliances and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy states, “Alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.” The advantage of having military allies and partners is enhanced by the core capacity of the American military having remained largely the same over the past decade, though the global security environment grew more complex and difficult during that time. In short, the United States needs allies and security partners. But the United States needs allies and partners that can pull their weight militarily if the country is going to be able to maintain a favorable balance of power in critical regions of the world. The second edition of A Hard Look at Hard Power provides an in-depth examination of the overall strategic perspective, defense plans, budgets, and capabilities of seven key European and Asian allies, three frontline strategic partners, and NATO.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Terrorism, Budget, Global Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, United Kingdom, Iran, India, Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, France, Poland, Germany, Australia, Sweden, and United States of America

16730. Special Commentary: COVID-19 and the Ethics of Military Readiness

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As is well known, then acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly fired Captain Brett Crozier, captain of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, after he wrote a letter arguing that all but ten percent of the crew should disembark the ship to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Doing so, he acknowledged, would diminish the carrier’s readiness and slow its response time in a crisis. Justifying that decision, however, he argued, “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our Sailors.”1 The problem for the captain, of course, was not the content of the letter as much as it was the subsequent leak to the San Francisco Chronicle. Setting aside the fiasco that resulted in his firing, and led to Modly’s sudden resignation, 2 the captain raises some important concerns regarding what the risks sailors, soldiers, airmen, and marines3 should be required to take in peacetime. Because it is peacetime, he argues, “[W]e … cannot allow a single Sailor to perish as a result of this pandemic unnecessarily.”4 Of course, even in war no one should die unnecessarily; however, the captain raises a good question: “what risks are necessary in peacetime?” To answer that question it is first important to understand what risks are necessary in wartime
Topic:: War, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Risk, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States of America

16731. Special Commentary: After COVID-19: American Landpower in Transatlantic Context

Author:: John R. Deni
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Over the last month, an array of analysts and experts has attempted to ascertain what the post-pandemic world might look like from strategic, policy, or institutional perspectives. Several of these assessments feature dramatic predictions of a new world unlike what existed just months ago. It’s reasonable to expect change following a global crisis, but the near breathlessness detectable in some of these analyses evinces a lack of nuance or an appreciation for stasis. Moreover, few of these or other analyses have addressed the implications in a transatlantic context, or suggested specific mitigation steps. This brief essay reflects a more balanced attempt to fill these gaps, identifying recommendations for the US Army and Department of Defense to leverage the crisis and mitigate the damage across the transatlantic community.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

16732. Special Commentary: Long-Term Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for the US Army

Author:: Steven Metz
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As the COVID-19 pandemic rages across the United States, the Army is simultaneously providing extensive support to civil authorities and maintaining readiness to perform its deterrence and warfighting missions. Eventually the current crisis will subside but the United States and its Army will not simply return to the way things were before. The pandemic has unleashed great change within the United States and the global security environment, accelerating forces that will, in combination, be revolutionary. As Dmitri Simes put it, "If ever the modern world faced a “perfect storm,” this is it. The combination of a deadly and highly infectious virus, an emerging worldwide economic depression, the collapse of global governance, and an absence of a coordinated and effective international response—all have contributed to a tragedy of historic magnitude, one that will not be easily overcome." While it is impossible to predict precisely the course of any revolution, it is important to assess the likely or possible direction of change. Given that, this discussion paper suggests some of the long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the US Army and recommends one or more senior leader steering committees the Army should undertake once the immediate crisis is under control.
Topic:: Security, Army, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16733. Special Commentary: Memorandum for SECDEF: Restore “Shock” in Strategic Planning

Author:: Mr. Nathan P. Freier, Robert Hume, and John Schaus
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Department of Defense (DOD) needs to re-institutionalize horizon scanning for “strategic shock” and integrate this perspective into its strategy, plans, and risk assessment. Defense-relevant “strategic shocks” are disruptive, transformational events for DOD. Though their precise origin and nature are uncertain, strategic shocks often emerge from clear trends. Shocks are often recognized in advance on some level but are nonetheless “shocking” because they are largely ignored. Too often, rapid strategic shock catches the DOD off guard because leadership fails to account for it. To be sure, accounting for shock is a value judgment. Many may actually see what ultimately becomes a shock well in advance. However, readying for shock requires leadership to understand a contingency event’s potential for strategic-level hazard. Failing that, and once confronted with shock, leadership frequently mischaracterizes it as defying reasonable prediction and prior planning.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Army, COVID-19, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16734. Special Commentary: COVID-19 and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Korea is Up, China is Down, and the US (For Now) is Out

Author:: John Schaus and Mr. Nathan P. Freier
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over three million confirmed infections and more than one hundred thousand dead globally. In the United States, over sixty thousand people have died and more than 1 million have been infected. According to epidemiologists, this is only the first phase. Thus, near-term “success” against the outbreak reflects a current snapshot in time, not necessarily a permanent outcome. In light of our very preliminary understanding of the long-term impact of the outbreak and national-level responses, there are discernible trends about how countries’ responses are impacting their standing in key regions and around the world. Few regions offer such stark contrast in stories as the Indo-Pacific. In that region, South Korea is up, China is down, and the United States is out. These shifts may or may not endure. What is increasingly clear, however, is that ineffective responses—perceived at home or abroad—will limit policymakers’ freedom of action for some time to come.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

16735. Special Commentary: Scenarios for a Post-COVID Middle East

Author:: Christopher J. Bolan
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: It is worth approaching an assessment of the likely impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Middle East with a strong dose of humility. Nonetheless, it is clear that the spread of this disease has already had major impacts on the global economy, drastically reducing demand for Middle East oil exports, and leading to a historic collapse in oil prices. The immediate challenges of dealing with the monumental health and economic challenges posed by COVID-19 will add to the troubles of a region already burdened by multiple civil wars, poorly performing economies, growing civil discontent, and intensified sectarian divisions. This article offers a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts of COVID-19 on the security landscape of the Middle East and advances recommendations for how US military strategy and operations might adapt.
Topic:: Security, Oil, Military Strategy, Economy, Exports, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East

16736. Special Commentary: “Hole” of Government: What COVID-19 Reveals about American Security Planning

Author:: Isaiah Wilson III
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Almost no more need be said. This is not the traditional “monster” America prepared to destroy. But, it is the monster we face. The coronavirus, COVID-19, typifies the “compound” nature of today’s security threats. This deadly adversary is inimical to accepted international laws and conventions regarding warfare and human security protections. It is a true omnivore, respecting no borders and consuming all classes, genders, races, and faiths. This adversary has driven mass societal disruption and managed in about four months’ time to infect over 1.2 million (confirmed cases) with nearly 72,000 deaths, in the United States alone. Worldwide economic recession, even depression, seems likely and national publics now question their governments’ capacity and will to contain the adversary. Should governments fail to do so (most experts agree that the opportunity to contain COVID-19 is lost), big-data computer projections predict as many as 173,000 could die in the United States by the end of May 2020. The yet untold damage from such a toll across all sectors—political, economic, and societal—is incalculable. The potential for a global paradigm shift in the way we should perceive these threats is real. Some may ask, why speak of combatting a global pandemic as though we are waging an epochal war? This moment takes the popular fashion of war rhetoric beyond the metaphorical: We are at war against this virus…or at least we should be. We should regard this threat and its compounded implications as the security issue it is. COVID-19 is indicative of the changed nature of many of today’s threats.
Topic:: Security, Government, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States of America

16737. Special Commentary: Recruiting in a Post-COVID-19 World

Author:: Matt Lawrence
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is going to change military recruiting. Recently, the Army and its sister forces have been forced to recruit virtually and have slowed processing through basic training. The Army has been vague about its recruiting goals, instead focusing on end strength, so it will not have to deal with the fanfare of missing its mission as it did in 2018. But the virus and its effects will actually help recruiting in the future. There was a storm gathering for recruiters, as the number of target youth would decrease in the years 2026-2031—a result of a decreased birth rate through the 2008 financial crisis and its fallout. Competition was going to be fierce with businesses and higher education. The virus changed everything.
Topic:: Education, Military Affairs, Army, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16738. Special Commentary: The Impact of COVID-19 on Civil-Military Relations

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: There has been a great deal of speculation regarding how the current COVID-19 pandemic could affect civil-military relations in the United States. Oona Hathaway observes that after the terrorists attacks on September 11, 2001, which killed approximately three thousand Americans, the United States “radically re-oriented” its security priorities and embarked on a two-decadelong global war on terror that cost $2.8 trillion from 2002 to 2017. Given that COVID-19 could kill more than one hundred thousand Americans, she argues that it is time to re-orient those priorities again.1 Of course, simply re-orienting security priorities by themselves will not be transformative. Nora Bensahel and David Barno, for example, argue that diminished defense budgets resulting from shrinking revenues will make less funds available to maintain expensive forward bases and legacy weapons programs. Moreover, they argue, the increased sense of vulnerability will give the National Guard and reserve components a greater priority than active forces given their more prominent role in addressing the current crisis.2 They are probably right that these things will occur. However, a smaller active force and an empowered National Guard and reserve components will not fundamentally alter the role the military plays in American society. That kind of transformation requires not only taking on new missions, but more importantly, taking on new expert knowledge. Since a profession’s status is contingent on a distinct body of expert knowledge, and the autonomy to apply that knowledge within a given jurisdiction, prioritizing human security will require developing expertise in more than the use of force. Doing so will shift the military’s focus from lethality to the prevention, or failing that, the alleviation of suffering, potentially blurring the lines between military and civilian realms. Of course, such an outcome is not inevitable and the US military has played a role in disaster response before without re-orienting its security priorities. However, the COVID-19 pandemic may prove a pivotal moment but not simply because of reduced funding for military expenditures or increased vulnerability to pandemics. Diminishing external security threats, due in some part to the effects of the virus, coupled with increasing demand to assure human well-being both in the United States and abroad, could lead to a rethinking of the military’s role in American society. This rethinking could include the redistribution of roles between the military, civilian agencies, and other organizations, which extends beyond simply decreasing funds spent on defense.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16739. Special Commentary: Outbreak: COVID-19, Crime, and Conflict

Author:: Paul R. Kan
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is the byproduct of illicit global trafficking. Although COVID-19 was likely transmitted to humans via pangolins sold in the wet markets of Wuhan, China, these markets acted as mere way stations for the virus. The natural habitats of the pangolins are the forests, grasslands, and savannahs of Africa. But, through a network of impoverished local communities, poachers, transnational organized crime, gangs and corrupt officials, approximately 2.7 million of this endangered species are captured and smuggled to Asia every year. The pangolin has earned the sad distinction of being “the most trafficked animal on earth.” The illicit global network of wildlife trafficking was a major facilitator of the pandemic, but the effects of the virus’ spread are, in turn, facilitating more criminal activities while creating the potential for greater internal instability in many states. The contagion-crime nexus has been overshadowed by the urgent need to combat the spread of the virus. Nonetheless, COVID-19 is acting as an amplifier for crime and conflict that will have repercussions in the international security environment in the near and long term.
Topic:: Crime, Trafficking, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

16740. Special Commentary: COVID-19: Shaping a Sicker, Poorer, More Violent, and Unstable Western Hemisphere

Author:: Dr. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic will have profound and enduring negative effects on Latin America and the Caribbean, significantly impacting the security, interests, and strategic position of the United States. Department of Defense and other US senior leaders should begin planning now to mitigate or manage the consequences. The effects of COVID-19 on Latin America and the Caribbean, as in many other parts of the developing world, will be far more significant than is commonly anticipated for two reasons. First, the virus will likely play out across the region over an extended length of time owing to a variety of factors discussed later. Second, the pandemic’s mutually reinforcing health, economic, social, and political effects will combine to wreak far more havoc than anticipated in analyses that only consider disease propagation or effects on commerce. Together, these two dynamics of COVID-19 will leave a Latin America that is far sicker, poorer, beset by crime, violence, social unrest, and political instability than today. It will also leave a region with expanded People’s Republic of China (PRC) commercial presence and political influence, even while being more resentful of it.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

16741. Special Commentary: Domestic Politics and the Military’s COVID-19 Response

Author:: William Braun
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 crisis has laid bare several long-dormant vulnerabilities, and opportunities, associated with US national security and military business practices. Military leaders must consider political context when making resource prioritization decisions that attend to these new perspectives. Three controversial political themes dominate the national security dialogue in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis. First, the nation’s initial focus will likely be on the economic recovery effort, while incorporating preparations to mitigate the reemergence of COVID-19 or a future pandemic. Second, the nation may experience a prolonged period of austerity, possibly combined with greater taxation, to recover COVID-19 related mitigation debt. Finally, because of these first two issues, defense budgets are likely to experience cuts. Defense spending is the only viable discretionary spending category subject to belt-tightening measures amid the divisive political gridlock and vitriol of a highly contentious election year. Emerging analysis suggests the probability of economic stagnation, uneven sector and state economic recovery, mounting national debt, and political infighting in the shadow of a contentious election will underpin these themes. However, analyses of military implications are less developed. Military resource prioritization choices are often biased by traditional justification reasoning and conventional force management assumptions. Arguments defending these choices may not adequately account for the influence of domestic political agendas, structural power pressures, or the military’s culture. This paper will examine domestic political trends, their potential military implications, and offer a few defense management arguments to augment traditional justification reasoning. A future article will consider the influence of stakeholder’s structural power, the culture of the Army’s defense management enterprise, and their influence on arguments used to defend resource prioritization choices.
Topic:: National Security, Military Affairs, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16742. Special Commentary: Not So Fast: Why the Call to Expand the Reserve Components is Premature

Author:: Matt Lawrence
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will have significant implications for the military and the US Army. Some experts have suggested that massive budget cuts are likely and will force the Army to increase the size of the reserve components. After all, the reserve components have performed the majority of the military’s work during the pandemic, and have argued for years that they are a low-cost alternative to active forces. However, there are several reasons this should not happen—at least not without a major shift in America’s global military presence and a significant revision of our National Security Strategy. There is no doubt that the Army’s reserve components have played an important role in the nation’s coronavirus response. Over forty-six thousand National Guard troops have been mobilized across the country, and the Army Reserve mobilized over three thousand soldiers. This was most notable in the Urban Augmentation Medical Task Forces, which deployed to various cities in need of additional manpower. They have provided vital services and a visual reminder of the Army’s homeland responsibilities. The importance of their efforts have led some to suggest that the reserve components will become more important and that resources should be diverted to them or that their numbers should grow. After all, reserve units in reserve status cost less. The National Guard consumes 12 percent of the Army’s base budget, and the Army Reserve only a paltry 6 percent, the major savings being the full-time pay, additional benefits, housing, installation, training, and operations and maintenance costs required by their active counterparts.
Topic:: Budget, Army, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16743. Special Commentary: Post-COVID Transformation: DOD Goes into the Matrix?

Author:: Nathan Freier, Robert Hume, Al Lord, and John Schaus
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: These are complex, turbulent, and uncertain times to be sure. The Department of Defense (DOD) is at an important inflection point. COVID-19 has irrevocably altered the dynamics of international security and reshaped DOD’s decision-making landscape. As a result, DOD will have to adapt to significantly different strategic circumstances post-COVID than those assumed operative in the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS18). We recommend that DOD recognize this to be true, seize the initiative, create opportunity from crisis, and recraft defense strategy to re-emerge from COVID as a stronger, more hypercompetitive institution. The past is definitely prologue in this regard. DOD’s current strategic circumstances mirror those of the immediate post-9/11 period. The wars that followed 9/11 forced a substantial strategic course correction on DOD. By 2003, it was clear that the azimuth set in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR01) was fundamentally compromised by the stark reality of the Iraq and Afghan wars and the wider “Global War on Terrorism.” There was corporate recognition at the time that the path described in QDR01 was not likely to position the American military for the demands of the post-9/11 environment. Just as war reshaped DOD’s strategic agenda then, COVID-19 will change the dynamics of great power rivalry and the defense choices associated with it going forward as well. By itself, we suggest this necessitates a thoughtful re-examination of the assumptions and approach described in NDS18. To use a pop culture analogy, DOD’s current situation is reminiscent of “Neo’s choice” in the dystopian movie The Matrix. In the film, rebel leader Morpheus offers protagonist Neo the choice of a red pill or a blue pill. The red pill extends to Neo an unvarnished view of “the matrix” and its broader and more difficult set of governing facts. The blue pill, on the other hand, returns Neo to his prior blissfully naïve existence plugged into a land of computer make-believe. The blue pill is all about doubling down on a comfortable yet already discredited past. The red pill offers Neo the opportunity to boldly enter a difficult but nonetheless transformational future. In the end (spoiler alert), Neo chooses red. Like Neo, DOD has its own difficult “red or blue” choice on the near-horizon. COVID forced the issue. DOD’s choice is between prudent risk-taking, transformation, and increased hypercompetitiveness (red) on the one hand, and status quo, steady decline, and inevitable loss of position in key regions and domains on the other (blue). As in the case of Neo, we suggest that DOD choose the former (red pill) transformational option.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16744. Special Commentary: COVID-19 and Brazil: Why the US-Brazil Relationship Matters More Than Ever

Author:: Dr. Jose de Arimateia da Cruz
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The global pandemic known as the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been wreaking havoc upon the world since it was first detected in Wuhan, China, at the end of December 2019. The disease rapidly spread to all provinces in China, as well as a number of countries overseas, and was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the Director-General of the World Health Organization on 30 January 2020. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) contends that the COVID-19 pandemic is having widespread economic, social, and political effects on Latin America and the Caribbean, a region with strong economic and political ties to the United States. Brazil has been particularly hit hard by COVID-19. It has become a global epicenter for the disease with the second most COVID-19 positive cases in the world after the United States. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro announced July 8, 2020, that he had contracted the virus.
Topic:: Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

16745. China’s Influence on Conflict Dynamics in South Asia

Author:: USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: China has embarked on a grand journey west. Officials in Beijing are driven by aspirations of leadership across their home continent of Asia, feelings of being hemmed in on their eastern flank by U.S. alliances, and their perception that opportunities await across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Along the way, their first stop is South Asia, which this report defines as comprising eight countries—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—along with the Indian Ocean (particularly the eastern portions but with implications for its entirety). China’s ties to the region are long-standing and date back well before the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, South Asia, India, Asia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives

16746. Digital Inclusion in Mediated Peace Processes: How Technology Can Enhance Participation

Author:: Andreas T. Hirblinger
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Inclusion in peace processes is conventionally understood in “offline” terms, such as being physically present at the negotiation table. However, digital technology can support a mediator’s efforts to integrate a broad variety of perspectives, interests, and needs into a peace process. This report explores the current and future practice of digital inclusion, giving a framework for understanding the possibilities and risks, and providing examples of practical ways digital technologies can contribute to mediated peace processes.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Negotiation, Peace, Participation, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16747. China-Venezuela Relations in the Twenty-First Century: From Overconfidence to Uncertainty

Author:: Matt Ferchen
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The outsized ambitions and scale of the China-Venezuela political and financial relationship in the twenty-first century have meant that its failures and disappointments have been correspondingly large. This report explores how the nations came to be involved, how each side has responded to Venezuela’s extended economic and political crisis, and the implications for the future of the bilateral relationship and for China’s aspirations to be a leader and agent of international development.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Development, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South America, and Venezuela

16748. Why Burma’s Peace Efforts Have Failed to End Its Internal Wars

Author:: Bertil Lintner
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: After seven decades of civil war and five failed peace efforts, Burma is no closer than before to reaching an agreement that would bring an end to its many conflicts. Analysis of those previous attempts shows that they all foundered on immutable attitudes on both sides. This report suggests that the peace process needs a fresh start, learning from the past and seeking to resolve underlying political disparities while prioritizing community interests and sustainable development.
Topic:: Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: South Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

16749. What Works in Youth Projects? Lessons for the Youth, Peace, and Security Field

Author:: Rebecca Ebenezer-Abiola and Jeremy Moore
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Until the adoption of U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2250 in 2015, the international community had no comprehensive framework with which to address the specific needs and opportunities of a key demographic group—young people. This report presents the findings of a meta-review assessing fifty-one youth projects supported or implemented by USIP between 2011 and 2018 and offers recommendations for continuing to develop and support peacebuilding activities with effective engagement, cooperation, and flexibility among civil society organizations and funders.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Demographics, United Nations, Youth, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16750. Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena

Author:: Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Between May 2019 and September 2020, the United States Institute of Peace convened a bipartisan senior study group to consider the factors that have reshaped the Red Sea arena. The study group determined that, in recent years, the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics of the Horn of Africa have become tied to the Middle East and broader Indian Ocean in a manner unprecedented in the last century. However, U.S. strategy in this evolving environment has struggled to keep pace with these interconnected, complex, and transregional dynamics and to account for the region’s increased relevance to U.S. interests. The final report of the senior study group defines U.S. interests within a hierarchy of priorities to assist policymakers in calibrating diplomatic, development, humanitarian, and security interventions and provides recommendations for defending and advancing these interests
Topic:: Security, Geopolitics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, United States of America, and Red Sea

16751. The Arakan Army in Myanmar: Deadly Conflict Rises in Rakhine State

Author:: David Scott Mathieson
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Armed conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw, the national army, has escalated sharply in the past two years. This development has been largely eclipsed, however, by the continuing international focus on the human rights crisis of the Rohingya Muslim minority. As this report explains, if this new conflict continues to expand in scope and ferocity, the hope of repatriating Rohingya refugees will recede into the future and the rest of the country will suffer from the increasing violence and destabilization.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Minorities, Refugees, Ethnic Cleansing, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

16752. Pathways for Post-Peace Development in Afghanistan

Author:: Khyber Farahi and Scott Guggenheim
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Even if the warring parties in Afghanistan manage to secure a still-elusive agreement on resolving the current conflict, significant economic challenges remain for the country, which will require continued assistance and support for core government functions. This report, based on an examination of Afghanistan’s recent development performance, provides a framework for how the Afghan government and its donor partners can more effectively deliver equitable development going forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16753. Constitutional Issues in the Afghan Peace Negotiations: Process and Substance

Author:: Barnett R. Rubin
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The peace negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban that began in September in Doha, Qatar, will almost certainly include revisiting the country’s constitution. Both sides claim to abide by Islamic law, but they interpret it in very different ways. This report examines some of the constitutional issues that divide the two sides, placing them within the context of decades of turmoil in Afghanistan and suggesting ideas for how the peace process might begin to resolve them.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, Mediation, and Sharia
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16754. Looking for Trouble: Sources of Violent Conflict in Central Asia

Author:: Gavin Helf
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report offers a road map for understanding the most likely sources of violent conflict in the post-Soviet nations of Central Asia—ethno-nationalism and nativism, Islam and secularism, water resources and climate change, and labor migration and economic conflict. The analysis draws from emerging trends in the region and identifies the ways in which Central Asia’s geography and cultural place in the world interact with those trends. It suggests that the policy goals of the United States, Russia, and China in the region may be more compatible than is often assumed.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, and United States of America

16755. Addressing Fragility in a Global Pandemic: Elements of a Successful U.S. Strategy

Author:: Corinne Graff
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Global Fragility Act (GFA), passed by Congress and signed into law in 2019, requires the State Department, USAID, and other agencies to put in place for the first time a comprehensive strategy to address state fragility, violent conflict, and extremism, relying on best practices that are key to more effective and integrated U.S. policy. This report focuses on six key themes in the legislation, drawing on the expertise of leading peacebuilding and development experts to help generate practical solutions for advancing the GFA.
Topic:: Development, Fragile States, Pandemic, USAID, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

16756. Violence Prevention through Election Observation

Author:: Larry Garber
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: For many years, election-related violence has posed a serious threat to the integrity of electoral processes worldwide. To prevent or minimize such violence, the international community has often relied upon election observation missions, which incorporate an extended on-the-ground presence and proactive mediation by international and domestic actors. This report discusses the challenge observer missions face in confronting election violence, and suggests how preventive efforts can be enhanced through improved, multi-mandate observation practices.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Elections, and Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16757. Built for Trust, Not for Conflict: ASEAN Faces the Future

Author:: Drew Thompson and Byron Chong
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In the more than five decades since the founding of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, relations among its member states have remained generally peaceful, and major interstate conflict has been all but eliminated. Yet, ASEAN now faces significant challenges, not least from competition between the United States and China that threatens to draw individual ASEAN countries into taking sides. This report discusses ASEAN’s role in maintaining peace and stability in Southeast Asia and how it can adapt to a rapidly evolving geopolitical climate to meet future challenges.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, ASEAN, and Mediation
Political Geography:: China, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

16758. Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election

Author:: Colin Cookman
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan’s current electoral system structures Afghan political dynamics, shapes election-day outcomes, and influences competition between organized interest groups in Afghanistan. Drawing on a unique set of results data from the September 2019 presidential election and past elections, this report analyzes where and how prospective Afghan voters were able to participate in the 2019 polls, the decision making behind and adjudication of disputes over which votes would be counted as valid, and how the available results compare with political trends evident in prior elections.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16759. Preventing Sexual Exploitation and Abuse by Male Peacekeepers

Author:: Jessica Anania, Angelina Mendes, and Robert U. Nagel
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Sexual exploitation and abuse by United Nations peacekeeping forces first came to international attention more than a quarter century ago. Despite numerous U.N. policy responses, the problem persists, harming individuals, jeopardizing missions, and undermining the credibility and legitimacy of U.N. peacekeeping operations. This report addresses the question of why more progress has not been made in preventing these violations and draws attention to ways in which prevention efforts can be strengthened and made more effective.
Topic:: Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sexual Violence, and Abuse
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16760. How to Engage the Enemy: The Case for National Security Diplomacy with North Korea

Author:: Van Jackson
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: To help U.S. policymakers better manage the myriad risks they face on the Korean Peninsula, this report assesses whether and how to pursue national security diplomacy with North Korea. This concept of engagement responds to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2020 regarding the benefits and risks for U.S. national security. Persistent engagement with North Korea’s national security elites, the report argues, is a policy wager with a large potential upside and very little cost and risk.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Migration, National Security, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

16761. Searching for COVID-19 Ceasefires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities

Author:: Tyler Jess Thompson
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On March 23, 2020, as COVID-19 was first appearing in many conflict-affected areas, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres issued a call for warring parties to cease hostilities and instead wage battle against the pandemic. Drawing on an examination of conflicts in Afghanistan, Colombia, Cameroon, Israel and Palestine, Libya, the Philippines, Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere—this report looks at how COVID-19 has affected conflict parties’ interests, positions, and capacities, and provides recommendation for how the international community leverage the pandemic to promote peace.
Topic:: United Nations, Conflict, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Libya, Philippines, Colombia, Palestine, Syria, Cameroon, and Global Focus

16762. North Korean Phone Money: Airtime Transfers as a Precursor to Mobile Payment System

Author:: Yonho Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than one in five North Koreans have cell phones, and increasingly rely on them to conduct financial transactions. Many of these transactions involve trading cell phone airtime, or “phone money,” for goods and services, and even for offering bribes. This report examines the potential for airtime trading to evolve into a formal mobile money system, which could enhance market activity and stability while providing opportunities for the country to engage with the international community.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

16763. Curbing Corruption after Conflict: Anticorruption Mobilization in Guatemala

Author:: Walter Flores and Miranda Rivers
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report analyzes the fight against corruption in Guatemala by social movements over the past five years, homing in on their major successes and challenges in working to advance transparency, accountability, and good governance. The lessons drawn from these efforts can be applicable for other movements around the world operating in similar contexts. The work also has a larger bearing for international actors helping states build peace and democratic governance following prolonged violent conflict.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Social Movement, Conflict, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:: South America and Guatemala

16764. Nonviolent Action in Myanmar: Challenges and Lessons for Civil Society and Donors

Author:: La Ring, Khin Sandar Nyunt, Nist Pianchupat, and Shaazka Beyerle
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The National League for Democracy’s decisive victory in Myanmar’s 2015 elections inspired hopes of a full transition from military rule and an opening of civil space. Neither has materialized, and the groups working to advance social, political, and economic change in Myanmar continue to face significant challenges. Focusing on three cases of organized nonviolent action in Kachin, Mandalay, and Yangon, this report explores the divide that has opened between civil society and the NLD government and the rifts emerging within civil society itself.
Topic:: Civil Society, Nonviolence, and Donors
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

16765. After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

Author:: Aly Verjee
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Almost every modern peace agreement has established some type of institution to oversee implementation of the agreement’s provisions and monitor compliance. This report provides a careful examination of monitoring and oversight mechanisms set up in Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Sudan, and South Sudan between 1999 and 2015, and offers a series of key lessons for the design of future monitoring mechanisms.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan

16766. The Challenges Facing the Philippines’ Bangsamoro Autonomous Region at One Year

Author:: Zachary Abuza and Luke Lischin
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Just over a year ago, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) was formally established as part of a peace agreement to end nearly five decades of conflict between the Philippine government and Moro secessionists. This report discusses the many notable achievements of the BARMM government during its first year while cautioning that these accomplishments are not irreversible, and that the BARMM will need international support—including from the United States—to confront future challenges.
Topic:: Government, Separatism, Peace, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Philippines and United States of America

16767. Bourgeois Jihad: Why Young, Middle-Class Afghans Join the Islamic State

Author:: Borhan Osman
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Ever since the Islamic State in Khorasan Province emerged in Afghanistan in 2015, policymakers and security forces have regarded it as an “imported” group that can be defeated militarily. This approach, however, fails to take into account the long-standing and complex historical and sociological factors that make the group’s ideology appealing to young, urban Afghan men and women. Based on interviews with current and former members of ISKP, this report documents the push and pull factors prompting a steady stream of young Afghans to join and support ISKP.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Jihad, and Middle Class
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16768. Illicit Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya: Highs and Lows

Author:: Fiona Mangan
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report explores how illicit drug trafficking and drug use in Libya has shaped and been shaped by the country’s ongoing conflict. Drawing on hundreds of interviews and dedicated research, it examines Libya’s pre-2011 illicit economy, delves into the social impact of drugs, and focuses on drug use on the frontlines of Libya’s ongoing conflict, the corrosive impact of drug trafficking and use on the justice and security sector, and how trafficking and organized crime undercut peacebuilding and state consolidation.
Topic:: Trafficking, Conflict, Peace, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

16769. China’s Periphery Diplomacy: Implications for Peace and Security in Asia

Author:: Jacob Stokes
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: China’s foreign policy is expanding in scope and depth and now reaches across the globe. Yet its diplomatic efforts focus on its own complex neighborhood. To advance these interests, China’s leaders practice an interlocking set of foreign affairs activities they refer to as “periphery diplomacy.” This report details the main tools Beijing uses to engage the countries with which it shares borders, assesses the campaign’s effectiveness, and lays out the implications for peace and security in Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Diplomacy, and Peace
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16770. China’s Response to Sudan’s Political Transition

Author:: Laura Barber
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Sudan's decades-long economic relationship with China has almost always been dominated by oil. Yet this relationship has changed significantly in the past decade—first with the loss of oil reserves when South Sudan became an independent nation in 2011, and more recently due to the ouster of longtime ally President Omar al-Bashir. This report, based on interviews with policy officials, diplomats, industry and security experts, and others, examines China’s evolving commercial and political interests in this vital nation in the Horn of Africa.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Sudan, and Asia

16771. Service Delivery in Taliban-Influenced Areas of Afghanistan

Author:: Scott Smith
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2018 and 2019, USIP partnered with the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), a Kabul-based research and policy organization, in an effort to understand how the Taliban provide education, health, and other services to people who live in areas where they are the dominant power. Based on a series of studies conducted by AAN in five districts across the country, the report also examines the Taliban's motivations as a governing entity and their implications for a potential peace settlement.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Taliban, Peace, and Services
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16772. China’s Impact on Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea Arena

Author:: USIP China-Red Sea Arena Senior Study Group
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Red Sea arena—which this report defines as the eastern and western shores of the Red Sea, from the Arabian Peninsula to Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and the strategic waterways that run between, including the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal—has long been a center of political turbulence, regional rivalries, and geopolitical interest. Historic political transitions currently underway in Sudan and Ethiopia, burgeoning economic investments amid fragility and debt in the Horn, continued conflict and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, Middle Eastern rivalries and their impact on regional conflict dynamics, and the growing presence of China have further heightened geopolitical interest in this arena. This report focuses on China’s influence and activities in the region and its relationships with twelve Red Sea arena states: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Red Sea

16773. Understanding Russia’s Interest in Conflict Zones

Author:: Paul M. Carter Jr.
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Under Vladimir Putin, Russia’s global ambitions have steadily increased, including in unstable areas of the Middle East, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. For the most part, Moscow’s activities in these and other areas run counter to Western interests and undermine efforts to mitigate conflict through broad-based, transparent processes. This report outlines the factors that appear to be motivating the Kremlin’s conflict-zone interventions and places them within the larger context of Russian foreign policy interests.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

16774. Legislature and Legislative Elections in Afghanistan: An Analysis

Author:: A. Farid Tookhy
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan’s newest Wolesi Jirga—the lower house of the National Assembly—boasts a younger and more educated membership than those elected in either 2005 or 2010. Its representativeness, however, is uneven and problematic. This report offers a comparative profile of the Wolesi Jirgas elected in 2005, 2010, and 2018, highlighting issues salient to the reforms Afghanistan needs to undertake if it is to hold credible national elections that yield truly representative elected institutions.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Democracy, and Legislation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

16775. Myanmar’s Casino Cities: The Role of China and Transnational Criminal Networks

Author:: Jason Tower and Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Seeking to profit from China's lucrative but illegal gambling market, a shady web of actors has begun building resort cities in Myanmar’s Karen State to cater to Chinese gamblers. This report casts light on the actors behind Myanmar’s illegal gambling sector, their linkages to Chinese government entities and to Myanmar's armed groups and military, and how their actions could upend Myanmar’s prospects for peace.
Topic:: Crime, Economics, Transnational Actors, Gambling, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

16776. Violent Extremist Disengagement and Reconciliation: A Peacebuilding Approach

Author:: Chris Bosley
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Existing efforts to disengage people from violent extremism are derived from security imperatives rather than from a peacebuilding ethos. This report—one of a series to be published by USIP’s program on violent extremism—presents a framework through which peacebuilders can foster disengagement from violent extremism and reconciliation between those disengaging and affected communities by examining the individual, social, and structural dynamics involved.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16777. Measuring Collective Impact: Creating a Framework for Assessing Multiple Peacebuilding Projects in Colombia

Author:: Diego Benitez
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: USIP implemented its Initiative to Measure Peace and Conflict (IMPACT) program first in the Central African Republic and later in Colombia, where it worked directly with peacebuilding organizations to gauge their collective impact on fostering reconciliation in the wake of the 2016 peace accord between the government and FARC rebels. Drawing on the challenges encountered and lessons learned, this report provides suggestions for how future iterations of the IMPACT approach can help policymakers, donors, and practitioners achieve greater and more cost-effective results from the peacebuilding projects they support.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Education, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

16778. India’s Kashmir Conundrum: Before and After the Abrogation of Article 370

Author:: Sameer P. Lalwani and Gillian Gayner
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On August 5, 2019, the government of India revoked the constitutional autonomy of its Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir. This report—based on field interviews, new data collection, and extensive research— focuses on the revitalized insurgency and mass uprising between 2013 and 2019, explains how the Kashmir conflict evolved to a point that contributed to India’s extraordinary political gambit, and lays out both New Delhi’s strategy and the challenges the government faces going forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, Insurgency, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Kashmir

16779. Toward a Kashmir Endgame? How India and Pakistan Could Negotiate a Lasting Solution

Author:: Happymon Jacob
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Kashmir has once again emerged as a major flashpoint between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals, India and Pakistan. The Indian government’s August 2019 withdrawal of statehood status for the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region intensified disaffection among separatists and the Kashmiri public. This report explores the strategies India and Pakistan have adopted toward Kashmir in the year since August 2019, and examines a potential road map for resolving the Kashmir conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Kashmir

16780. Disengagement and Reconciliation in Conflict-Affected Settings

Author:: Leanne Erdberg Steadman
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Even in brutal and desperate conflict settings, it is possible for people to abandon violence and leave violent groups. Peacebuilders know this well—yet terrorism and counterterrorism policies and practices have often neglected practical ways to address participants in violent extremism and failed to provide them opportunities to reject violence. This report examines how peacebuilding tools can help transform the individual attitudes, group relationships, and social ecosystems and structures needed to facilitate the effective disengagement and reconciliation of former members of violent extremist groups.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Conflict, Peace, Reconciliation, and Disengagement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16781. Preparing the Global Counterterrorism Forum for the Next Decade

Author:: Eric Rosand
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In the two decades since the 9/11 attacks, terrorist networks have become more global and interconnected even as they remain locally tethered. The transnational and localized nature of the threat underscores the continued importance of international cooperation in all aspects of a response. This report explores the work of the Global Counterterrorism Forum, launched in 2011 to energize such cooperation, and how best to position it for an effective and far-reaching future.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16782. Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies

Author:: David Michel
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over forty hostile, militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II. This report reviews the pathways that link water resource pressures to conflict risks and describes how peacebuilding strategies such as water diplomacy can help mitigate these risks.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16783. The Creeping Threat of Climate Change

Author:: Mirette F. Mabrouk, Abla Abdel Latif, and Sarah El-Battouty
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Climate change is slowly stamping an imprint on Egypt’s environment, culture, and economy. The most obvious of these challenges is the rising scarcity of water. Egypt is already one of the world’s most water scarce countries; while the UN assesses water scarcity at 1,000 cm3 per person annually, Egypt has less than 560 cm3 per person. Rapid population growth, urbanization, desertification, and unpredictable weather patterns are all taking an unrelenting toll on the country’s strained water resources, while fear is climbing over loss of water from the Nile if the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam holds back water during droughts. Just as worrisome is rising heat. This threatens health, water supplies and, in a country where over 30 percent of the labour force is directly involved in agriculture, Egypt’s harvests. While there has been much work done on water conservation, climate change mitigation policy is unclear. Much of the action is handled by the private sector which is not always invested in the strictest environmental standards. Is it possible to tackle the oncoming threat while balancing mitigation with the need for development?
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, Culture, and Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

16784. Cyber War and Cyber Peace: Past and Future Cyber Clashes in the Middle East

Author:: Selena Larson, James Shires, and Thom Langford
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Although the cyber domain is an emerging field of conflict, it is no longer a new frontier – many battles in cyberspace have been fought and it is imperative they be understood to begin imagining how the future of warfare online may look. As the United States, the Middle East, and policy community globally begin to consider how a Biden administration will approach conflict and cyber conflict in the region, this panel is an opportunity to study the history of cyber warfare in the Middle East as context for the policy challenges that will arise in the next four years. This panel is sponsored by SentinelOne, a cybersecurity solution encompassing AI-powered prevention, detection, response and hunting in a single autonomous platform.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Conflict, Non-Traditional Threats, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

16785. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government

Author:: Isma'il Kushkush, Mohamed Solman, and Jérôme Tubiana
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashir’s 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Government’s inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises. How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudan’s constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudan’s relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI) brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people.
Topic:: Environment, Politics, Social Media, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

16786. A Sea Change?: China’s Role in the Black Sea

Author:: Ivan Safranchuk, Michal Meidan, Gonul Tol, and Michael Gunter
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative has recently launched a report, A Sea Change?: China’s Role in the Black Sea. The report seeks to address China’s policy vis-a-vis the countries of the Black Sea from several angles. What is the nature of China’s presence in the Black Sea? Is China a significant player in the region’s energy scene? What is the state of Chinese-Russian relations?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: China and Black Sea

16787. A Fragmented Society: The Internal Dynamics of Libya’s Conflict

Author:: Thomas Volk, Jason Pack, Younes Abouyoub, Emadeddin Badi, Jonathan Winer, Amanda Kadlec, Gerald Feierstein, Mohamed Eljarh, and Bouchra Rahmouni
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: While most discussions about the Libyan crisis revolve around geopolitics and international interference, internal divisions within Libya’s civil society and political institutions have also played a fundamental role in destabilizing the country since the fall of Moamar Gaddafi in 2012. Governance in Libya is fragmented with very few truly national actors. It also continues to lack political institutions that are seen by all Libyans as legitimate. The ongoing conflict consists of many contending local and tribal players, including spoilers who have demonstrated opposition to either peace or reconciliation except on the basis of total victory by their group. What are the major obstacles to stabilization? How can Libya approach the establishment of political institutions? In what ways can the international community support a Libyan-led peace process? The Middle East Institute, the Regional Program Political Dialogue South Mediterranean of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, and the Policy Center for the New South are pleased to jointly host a group of experts to discuss these questions and more in a closed roundtable format.
Topic:: Civil Society, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

16788. Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Scope and Implications

Author:: Mamuka Tsereteli, Margarita Assenova, Alex Vatanka, and Rauf Mammadov
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has entered its fourth week. The scope of the war has not been limited to the boundaries of the combat zone, resulting in human loss and destruction of civil infrastructure. The region’s important network of energy infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines, are not immune to this latest round of fighting. The military confrontation is taking place in proximity to the critical energy infrastructure that connects the Caspian basin with the European markets. Can the fighting cause disruption to oil and gas flows to the West? What could potential disruption mean for global markets? Can the Southern Gas Corridor be prevented from being launched by the end of this year as had been planned? What are the interests of regional stakeholders such as Turkey, Georgia, Russia, Iran and others that are either energy exporters, consumers or transit nations for Caspian hydrocarbons. And finally, what are the interests of the United States in this conflict and its impact on the energy markets?
Topic:: Energy Policy, Territorial Disputes, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Exports
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and United States of America

16789. The Palestinians and U.S. Elections: What’s at Stake?

Author:: Khaled Elgindy, Martin Indyk, Nour Odeh, and Shibley Telhami
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: As Americans head to the polls in November the results will have far reaching implications for Americans and the global community alike—perhaps none more so than Israelis and especially Palestinians. Insofar as Israelis and Palestinians are concerned, the differences between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden could not be more stark. While Trump has upended one sacred pillar of the peace process after another Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive of these policies in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution and to restore U.S.-Palestinian relations, now at an all-time low. Even as the Trump administration has worked to preempt virtually all issues of concern to the Palestinians—from Jerusalem and refugees to the prospect of self-determination—Palestinians are themselves beset by a host of internal and external challenges. Internal political division, institutional paralysis, and a chronic economic crisis, have brought the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the verge of collapse and sapped its legitimacy. Meanwhile, the recent normalization deals between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, and the possibility further normalizations, have underscored the marginalization of the Palestinian cause, both in the region and in the global policy discussion. What is—or should be—the Palestinian national strategy in light of these unprecedented challenges? Can the PA survive another Trump term? Would an ostensible return to the status quo ante by a Biden administration be enough to save the two-state solution?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Elections, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

16790. Economic Development and Security: Three Seas Initiative in the Black Sea

Author:: Iulia Joja, Ryan Olson, Mamuka Tsereteli, and Ian Birzezinksi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Three Seas Initiative has been dubbed a new Marshall Plan for Central and Eastern Europe. Promising buy-ins from Three Sea Initiative members, including Poland and Romania, will be matched with up to 1 billion USD by the United States. The aim of the Three Seas Initiative is to contribute to the economic development of Central and Eastern Europe. The Black Sea is partially covered by the initiative through the membership of Romania and Bulgaria, but the region's strategic importance as the connection point between Europe, Asia and the Middle East remains largely unaddressed. While Ukraine has recently expressed its interest in joining, US strategic allies and EU partners, Georgia and Ukraine as well as NATO member Turkey, are essential for the economic development and critical infrastructure that the Black Sea needs. What role does the Black Sea play for Eastern European economic development and security? How can the Three Seas Initiative make a difference to the Black Sea region in terms of economic development? How can non-3SI members like Georgia and Ukraine buy in and benefit from the Three Seas Initiative?
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Integration, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Black Sea

16791. US and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration

Author:: Alex Vatanka, Hannah Kaviani, Behnam Ben Talebiu, and Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The looming arrival of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021 provides the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to seek a qualitatively different relationship with the United States. President-elect Biden has already expressed a desire to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. While Tehran awaits to see what, if any, conditions the Biden team has for the resumption of the diplomatic track and removal of US-led sanctions, a policy fight is already under way inside the Iranian state about the future of US-Iran relations. The American question in Tehran is not just a foreign policy file but ultimately linked to the question of whether the Islamic Republic opts to continue a revolutionary and militant foreign policy or settles for a path of de-escalation with Washington and other rivals. How much of this policy competition in Tehran will shape Washington’s next steps vis-à-vis Iran? To discuss these matters and other key challenges in the path of US-Iran relations in the coming Biden administration, we are delighted to host a panel of experts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

16792. MEI Webinar Series Pt 1: The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration

Author:: Khaled Elgindy, Sam Bahour, Tareq Baconi, Mustafa Barghouti, and Noura Erakat
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Part 1 – Reviving Palestinian Political Life Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution. Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Negotiation, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

16793. MEI Webinar Series Pt 2: The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration

Author:: Khaled Elgindy, Dana ElKurd, Yousef Munayyer, and Mustafa Barghouti
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Part 2 – Toward a Palestinian National Strategy Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution. Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16794. Unleashing a New Way of Warfare: How Turkey's Drones and Air Defence Systems Won the War for Tripoli

Author:: Nilsu Gören, Wolfgang Pusztai, Jason Pack, Mohamed Htweish, and Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Over the last year, a new form of extraterritorial air war has proved extremely decisive in military conflicts in both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. In both instances, the Turkish backed side has emerged victorious, despite initially being on the backfoot. In 2019, it seemed Tripoli was on the verge of falling to the forces of General Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA.) The LNA had received military assistance in the forms of drones, mercenaries, and diplomatic support from the UAE, Egypt, and Russia. However, following an announced ceasefire, Turkey utilized the brief pause of fighting to turn the tide of battle by backing Haftar’s rival, the General National Council. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to launch a recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli.” Why did Turkey decide to fully engage in Libya’s Second Civil War? What strategies and tactics did Turkey establish throughout its involvement? Which modern military technologies helped shape the outcome of the War for Tripoli? What are the next likely steps in the international community’s mediation efforts in Libya?
Topic:: Defense Policy, War, Drones, Conflict, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

16795. Rethinking U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

Author:: Douglas London, Chris Costa, Charles Lister, and Karen Greenberg
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: After nearly two decades of the so-called War on Terror, the threats and challenges posed by terrorism to the United States and its allies have proliferated in number, grown in sophistication, and expanded geographically. While our terrorist enemies have proven resilient and adaptable, our strategy and tactics have remained largely unchanged. Although the U.S. mainland may be better protected from a 9/11-style attack, our interests overseas and the stability of regions like Africa and the Middle East have never been more challenged. As terrorism continues to evolve and the threats we face diversify, the time has come for a serious re-examination of American counterterrorism policy and the determination of more effective approaches to counter the threats of tomorrow. What lessons can we learn from the past two decades of countering terrorism? In what ways have our enemies adapted? How might we adapt to more effectively counter terrorism? Given domestic political constraints, what approaches are likely to be most realistic and effective?
Topic:: Military Affairs, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16796. Searching for a Way Forward in Lebanon

Author:: Paul Salem, Ishac Diwan, Fadlo Khuri, and Maha Yahya
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Lebanon is going through one of the most acute crises in its modern history. A complex economic collapse is driving hundreds of thousands into poverty and the risk of hunger, and shuttering an already wounded economy. A large cross section of the population revolted in October of last year and has created a standoff with a corrupt and sectarian oligarchy. The government is unable to chart and implement a way out of the crisis, and state institutions stand on the brink of failure. The multiple crises have threatened all sectors, including the critical education sector, previously one of the success stories of the country; universities, like other institutions, have been hard hit.
Topic:: Poverty, Sectarianism, Hunger, Economy, Protests, Crisis Management, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

16797. Voices from Turkish Politics: A Conversation with H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu

Author:: Gonul Tol and Ahmet Davutoğlu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program is pleased to welcome H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister of Turkey, to discuss pressing issues in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has gone through an extraordinary transformation, one in which H.E. Davutoglu played a critical role. Please join us for this timely conversation, moderated by Turkish Studies Director Gonul Tol, which will delve into questions about that change as well as recent developments including the Turkish court decision to convert Hagia Sophia back into a mosque and Ankara's military presence in Libya.
Topic:: Politics, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

16798. Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition

Author:: Darin LaHood, Paul Salem, Edward M. Gabriel, Jean AbiNader, and Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship. What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Political stability, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

16799. Jordan in 2020: Protests and Pandemic

Author:: Laith Al Ajlouni, Sara Kayyali, Oraib Al Rantawi, and Rana Husseini
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The start of the new decade in Jordan has been marred by unrest. In January, thousands of Jordanians took to the streets to protest both President Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the gas deal signed between Israel and Jordan. This wave of dissent came on the heels of the 2019 protests against increased austerity measures, a follow up to the 2018 movement that saw the resignation of Hani Mulki’s government. Though Jordan quickly adopted stringent measures to combat the virus, the economy will suffer a huge blow, exacerbating Jordan’s existing development challenges and popular discontent. Furthermore, the pandemic prompted troubling restrictions on freedom of speech, with an April decree stating that sharing anything that may “cause panic” about the pandemic is punishable with up to three years in prison. How have protest movements in Jordan been impacted by Covid-19, and what do recent protests over honor killings and gender based violence portend for progress in this area? How do these long standing grievances meet the current moment of the impending Israeli annexation? What will be the long term impact of the pandemic on Jordan’s economy and human rights, especially for the country’s millions of refugees?
Topic:: Refugees, Economy, Political stability, Protests, Austerity, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

16800. Beware Chinese Anger

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The growing friction between China and Australia is a function of Beijing’s swagger and self-confidence. Israel must take note of Beijing’s aggressive behavior, and cautiously navigate its own relations with China.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS