Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 5 Years

16601. The Qatari Sanctions Episode

Author:: Richard Nephew
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Bahrain announced that they were cutting diplomatic ties with and imposing sanctions on Qatar. The most formidable of these sanctions was a comprehensive blockade of Qatar, which involved the closure of the land border between Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well as banning Qatari planes from entering these countries’airspace. The coalition then embarked on a limited program of sanctions advocacy, seeking US, European, East Asian, and other regional support for their efforts. Nearly three years after the crisis began, Qatar’s economic indicators all point to the positive and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has broadly concluded that the Qatari economy is structurally sound. Qatar faces some of the same issues and tensions that other hydrocarbon-dependent economies experience, but is in a comparatively strong position, particularly as relates to its future sanctions resilience as will be described below. This paper, part of the broader sanctions work from the Energy Security program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, sets aside whether the cause of the Qatari dispute with its neighbors justified the use of sanctions and examines the significance of the execution of those sanctions. Qatar’s experience is not replicable in many contexts, given its sizable advantages in available resources. Nonetheless, how the country responded to and—in this paper’s assessment—effectively defeated the sanctions campaign mounted against it points to several lessons about the design and implementation of sanctions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Gulf Nations, and UAE

16602. Latin America Is Avoiding the Obvious Need for Reform. Why?

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Since nearly the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and political analysts have seen an urgent need – and opportunity – for Latin America to pursue reform. The argument is simple: The aftershocks of the current crisis will be devastating and long-lasting unless the region takes steps now to strengthen its labor markets and improve fiscal sustainability. That means taking advantage of unusual political circumstances to rally support for difficult decisions that have been put off for far too long. A failure to act would risk turning COVID-19 into the preamble to another lost decade. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that governments in the region are prepared to use crisis in the present to prepare for the future. Throughout Latin America, the general response to COVID-19 has been to confront the challenge with increased spending. This will not have a happy ending. Governments will inherit massive debts, making it hard to deal with social unrest resulting from increased poverty and unemployment. Instead, the region needs to start making adjustments now – not only to spur economic recovery, but also to plant the seeds for a more sustainable performance down the road. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week added its voice to the chorus of those urging governments not to delay reform. As the region takes on debt to deal with the crisis, it will need to avoid falling over the fiscal cliff once the pandemic subsides, according to the IMF. That could mean, for example, pre-approving tax increases or the reduction in certain spending to be implemented once economic conditions return to normal. Labor laws could be changed to make it less costly for firms to hire (or hire back) workers, at least for the time being. Indeed, the right mix of reforms would have benefits in the short term as well. Given a better reading of future economic risks, markets and credit agencies would likely give countries increased fiscal space and capacity to deal with COVID-19 right now, when it is most needed. But there is little to suggest an appetite for reform. Few if any governments in the region have seriously pursued policy changes with a view not just of the short-term crisis but also their countries’ long-term health. Seldom has the disconnect between the opportunity for reform and the interest in pursuing it been so great. Instead of simply trumpeting the importance of reform, then, it’s important to also ask why it isn’t happening.
Topic:: Public Health, Sustainability, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and North America

16603. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action: Workshop Report

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Alex Clark
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On February 27, 2020, the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) convened a workshop at the university’s Faculty House in New York City. The workshop brought together a combination of practitioners, researchers, executives, and public sector officials to discuss the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in realizing collective climate action goals. Under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion focused around sectors (power generation, oil and gas) and relationships (government-SOE relations, and the role of public financial institutions), before concluding with a roundtable discussion drawing together the day’s proceedings and outlining the next steps. The following is a summary of that workshop.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16604. Electricity Oversupply: Maximizing Zero-Carbon Power to Accelerate the Transition from Fossil Fuels

Author:: Melissa Lott and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Decarbonizing and growing the power sector are critical steps to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-efficient and timely manner. As more renewable energy enters the market, the higher penetration of solar and wind sources means periods of temporary overgeneration are likely to increase. There are signs that renewable electricity oversupply is now actively being sought in order to create opportunities to decarbonize other sectors or build export markets for products derived from that additional energy. This commentary discusses the role of electricity in deep decarbonization efforts, and how zero-carbon oversupplies might be deployed. Policy makers must assess what public benefits to prioritize under this recent phenomenon. This commentary examines four countries—Germany, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the United States—where excess generation is providing novel opportunities. The case of New Zealand is particularly illustrative of the choices countries and policy makers are facing. There, extra zero-carbon supply has suddenly appeared due to the closure of an aluminum smelter. The reduced load means this new abundance could be used to: expand the transmission infrastructure to feed electric loads elsewhere in the nation, decarbonize non-power sector applications (e.g., transportation or industry), produce and sell new products with near-zero carbon footprints (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia, chemicals, fuels), or operate machines that remove CO2 from the air and oceans.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16605. ESG Investing and the Oil and Gas Industry: Moving Toward a Holistic Approach to Risk, Governance; Performance Measurement, Disclosure, and Results

Author:: Hon Xing Wong, Marianne Kah, and Erin Blanton
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: On September 17, 2020, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) held a virtual workshop about environmental performance in the oil and gas industry. Investors, senior oil and gas industry executives, NGOs, and other stakeholders participated in this candid discussion about how environmental risks should be measured, disclosed, and incorporated into investment decisions.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16606. Output-Based Rebates: An Alternative to Border Carbon Adjustments for Preserving US Competitiveness

Author:: Noah Kaufman, John Larsen, Ben King, and Peter Marsters
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Two linked and frequently raised concerns about putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions in the United States are whether such a tax would unintentionally advantage foreign competitors and, as a result, lead to increased emissions outside American borders. The tax could make American products more expensive than those made by companies in countries not imposing comparable climate regulations, which could lead to shifts in production overseas. Because a central aim of climate policy is to reduce global emissions, the “leakage” of production overseas would run counter to this goal. To avoid this outcome, carbon tax proposals commonly include a border carbon adjustment (BCA), which would impose the carbon tax on imported energy-intensive and trade-exposed products and provide a tax refund for exports of the same products. This commentary, part of a series of joint research on carbon tax policies by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and Rhodium Group, highlights an alternative way to ensure that US firms remain on a level playing field with foreign competitors: output-based rebates (OBRs). While a BCA would focus on imports and exports, an OBR would instead compensate vulnerable US firms based on their production—a simpler process. Both BCAs and OBRs have their benefits and drawbacks, but nearly all carbon tax bills recently proposed in Congress included a BCA, and none included OBRs. This commentary reintroduces output-based rebates as an alternative to BCAs, analyzes US industries that could be compensated with OBRs, and estimates the costs of doing so. A border carbon adjustment is an appealing concept: simply apply the same carbon tax to foreign firms that is applied to domestic firms. The key advantage of OBRs is avoiding the most significant administrative hurdles of BCAs, including the complexities of determining the carbon content of foreign goods and providing foreign firms credit for climate regulations in their home countries. The proposed (but not passed) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, commonly called the Waxman-Markey climate bill, included compensation for energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) US firms with OBRs. This commentary uses the Waxman-Markey proposal as a guidepost to analyze the potential scope and costs of OBRs today.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16607. Building a New Grid without New Legislation: A Path to Revitalizing Federal Transmission Authorities

Author:: Avi Zevin, Sam Walsh, Justin Gundlach, and Isabel Carey
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Zero-carbon electricity will be the backbone of a net-zero economy, not only keeping the lights on in our homes and offices but also powering our transportation systems and industrial processes. Indeed, research indicates that in order to decarbonize the economy at a reasonable cost and within a reasonable time frame, we must rapidly decarbonize and grow the power sector. Electricity—how it is generated, moved along the transmission and distribution grids, and used—is already undergoing a rapid transformation in the United States. This transition has been supported over the last decade by steep cost declines for wind, solar, and battery technologies as well as cheap natural gas produced via hydraulic fracturing. But the transition to a net-zero power sector needs to accelerate to mitigate climate change, which is already impacting the health of people around the country and world. New long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines will be vital if the United States is to deploy enough renewable generation capacity to decarbonize the power sector and to integrate it cost-effectively, as well as electrify our economy in time to meet the targets established in the Paris Agreement. Because Congress may not take timely action to remove barriers to these power lines, policy makers and the incoming Biden administration should explore how the federal government could use existing authorities to foster new long-distance transmission line development. This paper seeks to explain steps that the federal government—particularly from within the US Department of Energy and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—could take to facilitate development of a future grid that is capable of supporting a reliable, affordable, and increasingly zero-carbon power sector. Consistent with the mission of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA to advance smart, actionable, and evidence-based energy and climate solutions through research, education, and dialogue, the goal in publishing this paper in partnership with NYU School of Law’s Institute for Policy Integrity is to provide insights that are useful to policy makers in the format and time frame needed. We hope that this report contributes to supporting informed dialogue on potential tools for building a sustainable power sector in the United States.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16608. How the US and China Could Renew Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: Aimee Barnes, Fan Dai, and Angela Luh
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Averting global climate catastrophe depends in large part on progress by the world’s two greatest powers and emitters: the United States and China. However, relations between these two countries—particularly on climate action—have deteriorated over the past four years. With a new presidential administration set to enter the White House in January 2021, there is an opportunity for the US and China to build trust and cooperation on climate change in a way that supports a cooperative and dynamic bilateral relationship more broadly. This commentary takes a close look at the Biden-Harris presidential platform with respect to climate action and China, and assesses China’s domestic and international climate efforts, particularly with respect to the status of its 14th Five-Year Plan. Importantly, what emerges from this examination is a starting point for China and the US to improve their relationship through climate action and collaboration. China’s announcement that it would seek to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is an important step towards such cooperation.[1] The most promising potential areas for US-China cooperation fall into three broad categories: renewing a shared commitment to global climate governance under the Paris Agreement; building trust to enable renewed bilateral cooperation, such as on technology innovation and investments; and supporting subnational leaders' progress in both countries through platforms where they can productively convene. Recognizing that a climate-safe future is bound up in our mutuality, these two world powers can promote a new era of climate action and resiliency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16609. How Germany and France Could Play a Leading Role in International Donor Coordination

Author:: Lennart Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In the framework of the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development, France and Germany face common challenges, ranging from security to global health. Against this background, this paper discusses opportunities and barriers for a French-German leadership in international donor coordination.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Trade, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

16610. Food Security in Times of Crisis: Poor Developing Countries are Different

Author:: Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Until now, the Corona crisis is mainly fought through lockdown measures. In more wealthy countries, these have barely an immediate effect on food security. In poor countries, the situation is different: There, these measures threaten people immediately. The text discusses issues and consequences.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Food Security, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16611. Migration and the 2030 Agenda: Making Everyone Count Migrants and Refugees in the Sustainable Development Goals

Author:: Anne Koch and Jana Kuhnt
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With its guiding principle “leave no one behind”, the 2030 Agenda aims at improving the living conditions of poor and marginalised groups. Migrants and refugees are not systematically considered in this process. In oder to do so, data disaggregated by migratory status is urgently needed.
Topic:: Migration, United Nations, Refugees, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16612. Bridging the Gaps: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Aid Effectiveness

Author:: Heiner Janus
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This briefing paper proposes an integrated approach of aid effectiveness that brings together four fragemented policy and research communities. The integrated approach can help development organisations and researchers to better organise and communicate their contributions to the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16613. Pathways for Integrating Socially Responsible Public Procurement in Municipalities

Author:: Maximilian Müngersdorff and Tim Stoffel
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Socially responsible procurement is a powerful policy instruments municipalities can use to help realising the SDGs and limiting human rights violations in value chains. However, implementation is low. We present success factors and triggers to utilise this instrument more broadly.
Topic:: Human Rights, Sustainable Development Goals, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16614. Triangular Cooperation: Broader, more Dynamic and Flexible

Author:: Geovana Zoccal
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: rilateral Cooperation (TriCo) has to operate growing complexity in the international development cooperation, going beyond the North-South-divide. TriCo became broader, more dynamic and flexible. The briefing presents recommendations to advance TriCo for all donors, and to make the modality support the 2030 Agenda.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16615. Russia in Africa: Is Great Power Competition Returning to the Continent?

Author:: Agnieszka Paczyńska
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Since 2014 Russian economic, political and security engagement in Africa has grown significantly. This policy brief analyses the motives and recent changes in Russia's Africa policy, and discusses implications for German and European cooperation with Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Power Politics, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, and United States of America

16616. Earmarked Funding for Multilateral Development Cooperation: Asset and Impediment

Author:: Max Otto Baumann and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United Nations development system and other multilateral organizations have increasingly been funded through earmarked contributions. This has implications for their ability to effectively and independently perform the functions member states’ expect of them.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, Development Aid, and Funding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16617. Germany’s Funding to the UNDS: Towards a Better Mix for Stronger Multilateralism

Author:: Silke Weinlich, Max Otto Baumann, and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Germany has become the second-largest funder of UN humanitarian and development work, but its funding is rather fragmented and restricted. To be an effective supporter of multilateralism, the German Government should adopt a coordinated, strategically informed approach to funding UN organizations.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

16618. Strengthening Coordination in River Basin Governance in Southern Spain – Cooperation, Incentives and Persuasion

Author:: Nora Schütze, Andreas Thiel, Pilar Paneque, Jesús Vargas, and Rodrigo Vidaurre
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Guadalquivir basin in Spain struggles with reducing agricultural water consumption to comply with water quantity provisions of the European Water Framework Directive. Improved cross-sectoral exchange, transparency, monitoring and revision of water rights are needed to address this challenge.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Water, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

16619. Reviving the Dying Giant: Addressing the Political Causes of Water Shortage in the Zayandeh Rud River, Iran

Author:: Ali Yousefi, Christian Knieper, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Zayandeh Rud, one of the main rivers in Iran, suffers from severe water scarcity caused by competition among different water users. Overcoming the dominance of supply-oriented water management, strengthening transparency and more collaborative governance would help address the water crisis.
Topic:: Politics, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

16620. Forums, Fees and Data Flows: Coordinating Mining and Water Policy in Mongolia

Author:: Mirja Schoderer and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Mineral and metal extraction threatens water quantity and quality in Mongolia. While good legal provisions for coordination exist, a lack of stakeholder involvement, data availability, human and financial capacity, and general transparency and accountability hinder their implementation.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Accountability, Mining, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

16621. Coordination and Cooperation of Water Management, Nature Conservation and Open Space Development in the Emscher Restoration

Author:: Jenny Tröltzsch, Nadine Gerner, Franziska Meergans, Ulf Stein, and Robynne Sutcliffe
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: South Africa’s water legislation is recognised for its ambitious adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management. However, implementation is hindered by conflicting hierarchical and network-based governance styles and lack of coordination between western administration and traditional authority.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

16622. Towards More Policy Advice: Maximising the UN’s Assets to Build Back Better

Author:: John Hendra and Max Baumann
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In order to effectively assist countries in building back better from the COVID-19 pandemic and return to a path towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the UN and its development organizations will need to focus more than in recent times on high-level policy advice.
Topic:: United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16623. Overcoming Coordination Gaps Between Water, Energy and Agriculture: Future Paths to Water Protection in Weser-Ems

Author:: Franziska Meergans, Christina Aue, Christian Knieper, Sascha Kochendörfer, Andrea Lenschow, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Intensive agriculture is characteristic for the region of Weser-Ems and the major source of nitrate pollution in groundwater. The analysis of coordination and cooperation shows that incoherent policies in the water, (bio)energy and agricultural sector have exacerbated the problem situation at hand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

16624. Systemic Challenges and Opportunities of Franco-German Development Cooperation

Author:: Lennart Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: How can France and Germany develop a vision for an improved collaboration towards the 2030 agenda for sustainable development? This paper compares the French and German development systems to identify barriers and opportunities for a closer cooperation with partner countries.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

16625. The future of European development banking: what role and place for the European Investment Bank?

Author:: Benedikt Erforth
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The paper takes stock of the European development finance landscape and the EIB’s role as part of this landscape. It looks at the interactions between different European development stakeholders and assesses the proposed reform and its potential impact on European development policy.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Banks, and Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

16626. Transnational Cooperation in Times of Rapid Global Changes: The Arctic Council as a Success Case?

Author:: Dorothea Wehrmann
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Agreement, illustrate the need for transnational cooperation to solve complex and interrelated challenges that affect humanity at large. But how can transnational cooperation be more successful in times of rapid global changes? This Discussion Paper shows that many of the premises discussed in the literature on transnational cooperation and on multi-stakeholder partnerships mirror the praise and concerns brought forward with regard to the Arctic Council as a case of success. At the same time, it would be possible under the auspices of the Arctic Council to further transnational cooperation, in particular by advancing its process management. This study proceeds as follows: It introduces and compares various different approaches in global governance research that are thought to strengthen transnational cooperation and critically explores in how far the Arctic Council can be considered an example to learn from in encouraging transnational cooperation. Moving on from the case of the Arctic Council, the study then expands further on the premises brought forward in the literature and suggests that more attention be paid to the dimension of knowledge as particularly in times of rapid global changes a shared understanding of challenges is an important basis for transnational cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arctic Council
Political Geography:: Arctic

16627. Carbon Consumption Patterns of Emerging Middle Classes

Author:: Babette Never, Jose Ramon Albert, Hanna Fuhrmann, Sebastian Gsell, Miguel Jaramillo, Sascha Kuhn, and Bernardin Senadza
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middleclass quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern–action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Class, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16628. What the EU Should Do for Democracy Support in Africa: Ten Proposals for a New Strategic Initiative in Times of Polarisation

Author:: Christine Hackenesch, Julia Leininger, and Karina Mross
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper reflects on the strategic importance of EU democracy support in sub-Saharan Africa and makes 10 proposals for reform to be better able to address new challenges in a changing global context.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

16629. Information and Communication Technology in the Lives of Forcibly Displaced Persons in Kenya

Author:: Mirko Eppler, Stella Gaetani, Patrick Köllner, Jana Kuhnt, Charles Martin-Shields, Nyat Mebrahtu, Antonia Peters, and Carlotta Preiß
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: There is a great deal of potential for digital tools to help refugees, but there are still major economic and infrastructure hurdles before all refugees are online. Evidence from three sites in Kenya provide evidence that can guide future digitalization efforts for working with refugees.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, Refugees, Displacement, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

16630. Never-Ending Reformism from Above and Dissatisfaction from Below: The Paradox of Moroccan Post-Spring Politics

Author:: Francesco Cavatorta and Fabio Merone
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In recent years, Morocco has implemented far-reaching political reforms of modernisation and liberalisation but these have never reached the stage of a systemic change. The country's political regime is still authoritarian in nature.
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, Arab Spring, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

16631. Corporate Tax Revenue and Foreign Direct Investment: Potential Trade-Offs and How to Address Them

Author:: Sabine Laudage
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Corporate tax revenue and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are two key development finance sources. This paper discusses potential trade-offs faced by developing countries, when mobilizing corporate tax revenue and FDI jointly, and provides policy recommendations how to address these trade-offs.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Direct Investment, Finance, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16632. Monitoring in German Bilateral Development Cooperation: A Case Study of Agricultural, Rural Development and Food Security Projects

Author:: Sarah Holzapfel and Cornelia Römling
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Monitoring and evaluation to increase evidence and thus aid effectiveness remains a challenge in the development community. This analysis of German bilateral development cooperation projects highlights quality challenges in German reporting and recommends adjustments for a more effective M&E system.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, International Cooperation, and Rural
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

16633. How the G7 Reviews its Work on Development: A Case Study of Internal Accountability

Author:: Roger A. Fischer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper suggests ways to improve G7 accountability practice so that it better capture learning effects. Better designed commitments and improved follow up would also support G7 legitimacy, because this would make it easier for external stakeholders to check G7 action against its words.
Topic:: Development, Accountability, and G7
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16634. Digitalising the Fiscal Contract: An Interdisciplinary Framework for Empirical Inquiry

Author:: Christian van Haldenwang
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Taxation is above all a political rather than a technical issue. But what happens if new digital technologies cause profound power shifts in the relationship between revenue authorities and taxpayers? The paper seeks to lay the conceptual groundwork for the analysis of this interplay.
Topic:: Economy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16635. Cling Together, Swing Together: The Contagious Effects of COVID-19 on Developing Countries through Global Value Chains

Author:: Stefan Pahl, Clara Brandi, Jakob Schwab, and Frederik Stender
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reveals that adverse demand-side effects reduce GDP up to 5.4 percent, and collapsing foreign supply generates a drop in GDP of a similar magnitude.
Topic:: Developing World, GDP, Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16636. The LFDD – Human Mobility Nexus in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean: A Review of National Policy and Legal Frameworks

Author:: Diogo Andreola Serraglio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Addressing human mobility in the context of land and forest degradation and desertification (LFDD) in global and national policy and legal frameworks remains essential for improved management of population movements related to slow onset processes.
Topic:: Environment, Population, Mobility, Land, and Forest
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean

16637. How Sustainable is Recycling? Reconciling the Social, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions in Argentina

Author:: Anna Pegels, Stefanie Heyer, David Ohlig, Felix Kurz, Lena Laux, and Prescott Morley
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: How can recycling in developing countries be shaped to be socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable? Our research synthesizes the ideas and expectations of a diverse set of actors in the recycling sector of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Topic:: Development, Economy, and Recycling
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

16638. Multi-annual financial framework and Next Generation EU, Review of an unprecedented, tumultuous European budgetary chapter

Author:: Anne Vitrey and Sébastien Lumet
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Negotiations on the adoption of the multi-annual financial framework 2021-2027 and the "Next Generation EU" recovery fund continue. Although hope of an agreement allowing deployment from 1 January 2021 has not yet been lost, there are still many sticking points. This is illustrated by the strong tensions that have recently emerged between the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, but also between Member States, themselves reluctant to question the precarious balance of the 21 July agreement.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Finance, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe

16639. Creation of a European Solidarity Funds: Directing Europeans’ savings towards their growth companies

Author:: Emmanuel Sales
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Europe has an excess of savings and its companies lack equity capital. This diagnosis was made a long time ago and the crises the continent has been going through over the last 10 years have accentuated this gap. European growth companies are rapidly falling prey to large non-European firms that benefit from a deep and liquid stock market. Thus, despite the existing arrangements, Europe is unable to impose world champions that would allow it to build its sovereignty against the United States and China. The creation of a new category of UCITS funds open to all EU savers, the European Sovereign Funds, would help us respond to this challenge by providing medium-sized companies with the fresh capital they need to ensure their development and independence.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, European Union, Economic Growth, and Capital
Political Geography:: Europe

16640. The European Union and its model to regulate international trade relations

Author:: Danièle Hervieu-Léger
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The European Union is one of the main promoters of free trade agreements (FTAs). This position is not new: since the mid-2000s, and even more so in the decade now ending, the Commission, supported by the Council and the European Parliament, has constantly sought to negotiate and conclude new trade agreements. This strategy has paid off. In 2018, almost a third of trade between Europe and the rest of the world was covered by the preferential provisions of an FTA, a figure that is expected to increase significantly in 2020, following the entry into force of the agreement with Vietnam, and to rise in the coming years to more than 40% if the agreements currently being negotiated with Mercosur, the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and possibly the United Kingdom come into force.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

16641. Relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom: a final agreement in view?

Author:: Christian Lequesne
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on 31 January 2020 following the signing of the exit agreement. This departure went hand in hand with the opening of a transitional period until 31 December 2020, during which the rules of the internal market continue to govern relations between the two sides. However, negotiations have not yet been completed, since the framework for the future relationship between the United Kingdom – which has now become a third country – and the 27 Member States of the European Union has yet to be established. The joint political declaration of 30 January 2020 accompanying the exit Agreement provides for : "an ambitious, broad, deep, flexible partnership in trade and economic cooperation – with a comprehensive and balanced free trade agreement at its centre –, law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign, security and defence policy, as well as broader areas of cooperation"[1]. Initiated in February 2020 the negotiations on the future Agreement have been hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic. The 27 Member States decided that the defence of their positions would, as with the exit Agreement, be entrusted to the European Commission represented by a single negotiator, the Frenchman Michel Barnier. On the British side, former diplomat, David Frost, is in charge of defending the positions of the British government led by Boris Johnson, however the former will be called to another post as Government Adviser for National Security from September 2020. Although face-to-face negotiations resumed in Brussels at the end of June 2020, in substance they have made very modest progress. Hence a legitimate question: can an agreement on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union be reached by 31 December 2020, while Boris Johnson's government has refused to make use of the possibility offered of extending the transition period and thus the negotiations until 30 June 2020? Is there a risk of ending the year 2020 without a no deal and to have economic relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union governed by the common law of the World Trade Organisation?
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

16642. Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus: with or without the intervention of external actors?

Author:: Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The protests against Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, which have continued beyond the August 9 presidential election, have been surprising in terms of their scale and level of politicization. The protest promises to be long-lasting bringing together people of all ages and professions, but the authorities are refusing to recognize it and are not satisfying any of its demands: to organize new this time democratic elections, to stop repression, to release detainees and political prisoners, to investigate crimes committed by the representatives of law enforcement agencies. Quite the opposite is happening: the crackdown orchestrated by Lukashenka’s regime, after a certain lull between August 12 and 16, is intensifying with hundreds of arrests per day, the repression against the emerging leaders and journalists (from the private media) who report the facts. What are the scenarios of the development of this crisis which seems to have reached an impasse? Can Belarus emerge from it without resorting to foreign mediation? What role could the European Union play?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Protests
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Belarus

16643. Challenges facing the CAP over the next decade

Author:: Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will enter the next decade relieved by Brexit of its fiercest opponent but weakened by the external pressures to which it has been subjected, and disrupted by the enlargement of the European Union. In the 2020s, it will have to take full account, in conjunction with the European Commission's Green Deal, of the environmental and climate issues that are so important for agriculture. It will also have to improve the management of climate, health and market risks, which global warming could aggravate, and strengthen the negotiating capacity of producer organisations with their powerful buyers in the food industry and supermarkets. Budgetary pressure may lead the European Union to distribute direct payments, (which account for three quarters of CAP expenditure), more fairly by placing the burden rather more on large farms, in order to spare the medium-sized family farms, which are still numerous in the western part of the continent. Finally, the CAP should be coordinated with other European policies, particularly trade policy.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Budget, European Union, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

16644. Mediterranean Sea: a paradigm of contemporary conflicts

Author:: Admiral Jean Casabianca
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Looking back at my military career, during which I sailed and battled above and below so many oceans, I am struck by the duality of the Mediterranean Sea. It is indeed for me as well a familiar environment as an area of perpetual uncertainty, which contributed to define me as a man, a sailor and a military leader. Predicators say that the Mediterranean, stage of the first major clashes between civilizations, will not be anymore the international centre of gravity and that the Pacific Ocean will take over this role. It remains however a major hub for the interactions of key strategic competitors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

16645. European solidarity in times of crisis: a legacy to develop in the face of COVID-19

Author:: Yves Bertoncini
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Now more than ever, the fight against coronavirus encourages an analysis of the foundations and limits of solidarity between the Member States of the European Union, just as the 70th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration, often cited for its call for "concrete achievements that first create a de facto solidarity".
Topic:: Development, European Union, Solidarity, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

16646. Coronavirus: globalisation is not the cause but the remedy

Author:: Blaise Wilfert
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: While the Covid-19 pandemic is unfolding in all its violence, "globalisation", to read more than one, is said to be the great culprit for what is happening to us, whether it has been the lightning speed of the virus' spread, the impotence of States to stop its progression, the inability of "capitalism" to produce medical equipment or the madness of stock market speculation. The logical consequence of this has been the repeated call, with some pathos, urgently to invent the time “after”, after the follies of globalisation. The magnitude of the shock that Covid-19 represents provides an ideal sounding board to replay a tune that is in fact an old one, familiar to us since the 1990s at least, or even the 1980s, but with an incomparable and therefore particularly disturbing echo. Defined both as liberalization - the triumph of the borderless market economy - and as planetarisation - the unification of the planet through flows of all kinds, information, migrants, ideas and representations, tourists, religious practices - globalisation is said to have become a form of disease fatal to the world. Hence to deglobalise[ 1]. Yet, it has to be said again, more than twenty years after Paul Krugman, globalisation is not to blame, and those who currently claim the opposite, with a communicative passion, pretending to draw conclusions from a lucid analysis of the recent past, rely on biased historical narratives to impose a political agenda, whether explicit or implicit. So, let a historian try to say a word about it, since understanding the times we are in requires understanding the times from whence we have come.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16647. Convergence in Media and Telecom in the face of COVID-19: Europe in a Transatlantic and International Perspective

Author:: Gérard Pogorel and Augusto Preta
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is tragically affecting our societies worldwide. As we are forced under these extraordinary circumstances to spend more time indoors, severely limiting our movements and journeys, telecommunications networks, communications services and the media are standing in to play a major role in economic and social resilience. They are providing the required tools for a transformed virtual workplace; making entertainment at home possible, at a time when theatres, and sports venues are at a standstill. More than ever before, the transformative nature of digital innovation in the media and telecommunications industries is moving along with the way we are living and working today.
Topic:: International Relations, Communications, Media, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

16648. Challenges and constraints facing a “Geopolitical Commission” in the achievement of European sovereignty

Author:: Pierre Mirel and Xavier Mirel
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: “What we do at home will affect our place in the world and shape relationships with our strategic partners and competitors. That is why we must be a Geopolitical Commission”. To achieve this, "the internal and external dimensions of our work should be harmonised (...) to ensure that our external action becomes more strategic and coherent". This is the essence of the mission entrusted by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on 10 September 2019, to Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

16649. Italy and the Libyan Crisis: What Lessons for Foreign Policy?

Author:: Camellia Mahjoubi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since 2011 the Libyan crisis has never stopped posing questions to the Italian political class and public opinion, showing all its relevance for the definition of the external action – either at the multilateral or bilateral level – of our country. From political mediation to the use of force, from the terrorist threat to the current COVID-19 crisis, from the management of irregular migration to the issue of human rights, Libya continues to represent an important test for Italy’s foreign policy. In recent months, the Libyan conflict has undergone important changes. International mediation under the lead of the United Nations and with the involvement of the regional actors seems to have lost steam and a new intensification of military operations has produced rapid changes in the balance of power on the ground. What have been Italy’s responses to the crisis? What are the objectives and the tools put in place? What lessons can we learn about the strengths and weaknesses of our foreign policy?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, Italy, and North America

16650. Could a Bridge between the EU and Latin America Boost Innovation “Sovereignty” in a Multipolar World?

Author:: Nicola Bilotta and Alissa Siara
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The economic ramifications of COVID-19 will accentuate the technological innovation gap between Latin America and the rest of the world. In a region already suffering from chronic underinvestment in research and development, the strain placed on government budgets by the pandemic-induced economic crisis will push innovation further back down the agenda. The region has compensated for a lack of domestic resources with foreign capital and technology imports from China and the United States. As the US–China relationship becomes more adversarial in the face of COVID, however, Latin America will emerge as a geopolitical battleground whose countries may be forced to choose sides and potentially lose out on capital inflows or technology imports. Navigating this potential storm will involve the region in a search for other options. Public–private partnerships with European Union firms represent one valuable possibility, but Europe and Latin America should first align their innovation agendas.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Institutions, Coronavirus, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

16651. China and Middle East Security Issues: Challenges, Perceptions and Positions

Author:: Jin Liangxiang
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Middle East and Gulf region face three drivers of tension and instability: those caused by the US’s erratic and unilateral policies, those tied to economic underdevelopment and those linked to growing competition among regional actors. China is and will be facing economic challenges stemming from the Middle East and will face growing calls to assume more active roles in the region, roles which however often go beyond its capabilities or interests. China’s approach to regional security can be categorised as promoting political solutions to disputes, contributing to economic development and providing security resources within the UN framework. China backs regional efforts to achieve peace and security via dialogue, also including extra-regional actors involved in the Middle East. China is sympathetic to Russia’s vision for regional security cooperation, and would support the convening of an international conference on Middle East security issues that includes specific roles for regional and external actors.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Gulf Nations
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

16652. Framing Russia’s Mediterranean Return: Stages, Roots and Logics

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russia’s return as a major geostrategic actor in the Mediterranean is one of the most significant trends characterising this area over the past few years. Part of a broader geopolitical pluralization of this space, Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria marked a new phase in Moscow’s Mediterranean engagement. Based on a stringent logic of intervening where other powers leave strategic vacuums, Russia has succeeded to carve out an increasingly central role in Mediterranean equilibria, despite its limited resources. Russian diplomatic and economic support for the Syrian regime in Damascus had steadily increased since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Yet, it was Moscow’s direct military intervention in September 2015 that signalled a decisive upgrade in engagement. Moscow’s military involvement shifted the tide of the conflict, proving decisive in avoiding the collapse of the Syrian regime, which is also backed by Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Topic:: Civil War, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

16653. COVID-19 in Palestine: A Pandemic in the Face of “Settler Colonial Erasure”

Author:: Yara Hawari
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As of early September 2020 more than 27 million cases of COVID-19 have been recorded worldwide, along with approximately 890,000 deaths. After many months of lockdown, countries are having to re-open despite growing infection rates and fears of a second wave while people adapt to a “new normal” which includes restrictions, social distancing and limited travel. At the start of the lockdowns, many Palestinians commented that the world now finally understood what life was like for them. Particularly in the West Bank and Gaza, the curfews, the closure of public spaces, the inability or difficulty to travel, lingering anxiety and perpetual uncertainty are features common to Palestinian life. However, this new global reality reflects only a fraction of the Palestinian experience of suffering from nearly a century of ongoing settler colonialism.
Topic:: Health, Settler Colonialism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16654. The European Commission’s Mission to Reform EU Migration Policy: Will Member States Play Ball?

Author:: Asli Selin Okyay and Luca Barana
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe’s institutional landscape and political context have evolved considerably over the past year, with implications spanning numerous policy domains, including migration. The formation of the new European Commission, its commitment to deliver a New Pact on Migration and Asylum and the negotiations for the next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF) have set the stage for much needed reforms in the migration field, a policy area still largely driven by the emergency mindset inherited from the 2015–16 “crisis”.
Topic:: Migration, Reform, European Union, Refugees, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe

16655. Religion vs. Secularism in Contemporary World Politics

Author:: Cesare Merlini
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As mail-in voting begins for the US November elections, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced plans to visit Pope Francis in Rome. The intent was anticipated in a critical article penned by Pompeo himself in First Things, the authoritative US journal of conservative Catholics. In it, Pompeo explained his visit as aimed at pressing the Vatican to halt its entente with China about the naming of bishops in that country, leading to angry rebukes and a warning that the Pope may in fact refuse to meet the incoming Secretary of State. A couple of weeks earlier, two normalisation agreements involving Israel and the Middle Eastern states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates were signed with much pomp and fanfare at the White House. The name given to the agreements: The Abraham Accords. This follows Trump’s transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018. Donald Trump’s efforts to consolidate electoral support from religious groups is not surprising or new. This tactic was instrumental in his previous election in 2016. More recently, one can recall the photo-op at Christ Church, near the White House, with the Holy Bible in his right hand after having ordered the police to dispel Black-Lives-Matter protesters from the area. Or Trump’s decision to be the first sitting president to address the annual anti-abortion March for Life rally earlier this year.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Elections, and Secularism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16656. The Lebanese Crisis and the Mirage of Natural Gas

Author:: Benedetta Brossa
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse as mounting economic, political and geopolitical pressures put unprecedented stress on the country’s institutional – and deeply sectarianised – setup. In October 2019, when large scale anti-establishment protests erupted across the country, what has been described as the Lebanese “Ponzi scheme”,[1] a shady mechanism through which the country was able to attract continuous injections of foreign currency to sustain Lebanon’s financial system with artificially inflated interest rates, came to a breaking point. The value of the Lebanese lira dropped significantly, as have socio-economic conditions for large parts of the population. Then came the massive explosion in Beirut, the latest, severe blow to the country’s economy, already suffering from a dysfunctional political apparatus, the recent default on the state’s debt in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic explosion reignited popular anger. Lebanese citizens renovated their grievances against the pervasive corruption and sectarianism that has dominated Lebanon’s confessional system, leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Mediterranean

16657. War and COVID-19 in Yemen

Author:: Afrah Nasser
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: After Yemen’s 2011 uprising broke out, the country went through a series of political upheavals and cycles of violence that tore the country apart, including the start of a full-scale civil war in 2014 and the Saudi- and UAE-led intervention in 2015. In a context where civilians have been deliberately attacked by all sides, COVID-19 has added a new layer to the unspeakable suffering for millions of civilians in Yemen, whilst Europe has reacted with development aid but has thus far failed to support need for accountability in the conflict.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Health, War, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

16658. “Irregular” Migration and Divergent Understandings of Security in the Sahel

Author:: Kari M. Osland and Henriette U. Erstad
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 September 2020, the EU launched its new Pact on Migration and Asylum. In a refreshingly blunt press-release accompanying the Pact one could read: “The current system no longer works. And for the past five years, the EU has not been able to fix it”. The stated aim of the Pact is a fairer sharing of responsibility and solidarity between member states while providing certainty for individual asylum applicants. This is intended to rebuild trust between EU members as well as improve the capacity to better manage migration. However, whether the Pact will be implemented and have an effect on EU external migration policy in the Sahel remains to be seen.
Topic:: Security, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

16659. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence

Author:: Anas El Gomati
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

16660. The Quest to Launch Regional Integration Processes in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Christian Koch and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Given the consequences that security issues yield for the Middle East and beyond and in spite of the failures to date, a regional security process where stakeholders can engage with one another remains a relevant and timely approach, which would be needed to move out of the region’s current cycle of instability. Based on the ongoing Tafahum project, a first step is to establish a shared understanding of regional security issues and what they entail before taking steps towards building a security “architecture” or “system”. In addition, regional cooperation must be framed around both conceptual and operational baskets. A broad agreement on principles of conduct, a focus on regional economic development and the development of civil society interactions are seen as essential elements around which such baskets can be put together.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Political stability, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

16661. Ending the EU’s Ambivalence to Free Movement in Africa

Author:: Roderick Parkes and Mark McQuay
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: When the October 2020 summit between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) was postponed, leaders blamed the pandemic. Yet, there was a sense that the issue went deeper. Both sides still resent the other’s handling of what Europeans refer to as the “migration crisis” of 2015. AU officials complain about the EU’s divide-and-rule approach to managing migration, while their European counterparts allege that AU officials encouraged African states to leverage migration flows to extort cash. Yet migration remains an area where the EU and AU policy agendas are in fact broadly aligned, on paper and in political rhetoric at least. The AU has adopted a free movement protocol and is looking at mobility to strengthen the continental labour market and promote intra-African capital flows. The EU has lent its support to the project, keen to build bridges with Africa on a traditionally divisive issue.
Topic:: European Union, Mobility, African Union, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

16662. The Aftermath: American Power after COVID-19

Author:: Emma Ashford
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: America has been hit hard by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. A combination of poor public health response, differing state guidelines, and lack of political leadership are leading the country into a third, deadly wave of the virus. Yet while the immediate prognosis is pretty dire, the long-term implications of COVID for America’s power potential – and its role in the world – are less clear, and likely less severe than initial assessments suggested. There have been no significant impacts to American military readiness, and while the economic impacts of COVID-19 could potentially undermine the long-term health of the American economy, this is far from a foregone conclusion. However, it is clear that the COVID crisis has largely served to highlight existing trends with the potential to undermine American power, notably political polarisation and domestic underinvestment.
Topic:: Investment, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16663. A Ceasefire with Feet of Clay: The Potential Spoilers of Peace in Libya

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 October 2020, negotiators from the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the dialogue format between the forces of the UN-recognised Government of the National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), signed a ceasefire in Geneva. Two days later, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), whose first round took place in Tunis between 9-15 November, after virtual sessions started on 28 October. Delegates agreed on a date for elections (24 December 2021) but not a new government, and will reconvene to continue negotiating at the end of November. While the announcement of the ceasefire and the political dialogue held in Tunis is obviously good news, the road ahead remains rife with challenges. The acting UNSMIL head, Stephanie Williams, has warned that many will seek, “for narrow personal and purposes, to corrupt and disrupt” the process. Looking ahead, four dynamics can spoil the process, undermining the prospects for a more sustainable political settlement in Libya: Haftar’s role; the situation of the global oil market; Turkey’s regional ambitions; and the economic interests of militia groups in Tripoli.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Libya and North America

16664. Learning from COVID-19: Implications for the EU Response to Human Smuggling

Author:: Lucia Bird
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic set the backdrop to the EU’s new framework for addressing irregular migration. Yet, this emergency mindset should not dictate that future responses to human smuggling remain focussed on border control, as they have done during the pandemic. We are at a pivotal moment in EU policy-making, following the release of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum[1] and preceding the publication of additional plans for legal migration and improved responses to human smuggling. This is therefore a key time to take stock of how state responses to the pandemic have impacted human smuggling dynamics, in order to build sustainable and humane response frameworks going forward.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Smuggling, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16665. Lebanon as a Test Case for the EU’s Logic of Governmentality in Refugee Challenges

Author:: Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Prior to 2011, Lebanon was no traditional gatekeeper in managing migrant and refugee flows to the EU. Following mass refugee influx from Syria, the small Middle Eastern state acquired key importance in the EU’s architecture of externalisation, alternatively framed as the set of norms and practices that the EU crafts to govern migration from a distance. Lebanon currently hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and since 2012 the EU has been the key funding power seeking to help the refugee-hosting state cope with the spillover effects that mass displacement brought about on the country. The EU’s recently published New Pact on Migration and Asylum reiterates support to refugees and refugee-hosting countries – including those in Syria’s neighbourhood – as one of the central elements of cooperation with third countries on migration and displacement. After nearly a decade of cooperation between the EU and Lebanon in this area, and ahead of the EU’s new budgetary and policy-planning cycle (2021–27), now is a key moment to critically assess EU-Lebanon cooperation on displacement from Syria.
Topic:: Government, Foreign Aid, European Union, Refugees, Economy, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

16666. Expanding Legal Labour Migration Pathways to the EU: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:: Martin Ruhs
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The European Commission’s recently published “New Pact on Migration and Asylum” calls on EU member states to increase legal labour migration pathways, including for lower-skilled workers. To help achieve this goal, the Pact proposes greater and more effective cooperation with non-EU countries through so-called “Talent Partnerships”. These proposals are not new. The idea of partnerships with non-EU countries that include expanded labour migration programmes was at the heart of the EU’s “Global Approach to Migration” launched in 2005, and this approach has been further discussed and developed over the past 15 years. These ideas, however, have never led to a significant opening of European labour markets to lower-skilled non-EU workers. An obvious question therefore arises: Will this time be different? Will EU member states (which have primary competence in regulating labour immigration from outside the EU) engage with non-EU countries to develop new policies that expand legal labour migration opportunities in meaningful ways? Will these opportunities be inclusive of low- and medium-skilled workers?
Topic:: Migration, Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Institutions, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe

16667. Why Europe Should Care about Energy Poverty in its Green Transition

Author:: Marta Massera
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In mid-October, the European Commission issued a communication on energy poverty to member states[1] that was published jointly with the Renovation Wave initiative[2] for the building sector under the European Green Deal. The document gave further impetus to the long-standing discussion on energy poverty in Europe and can be related to renewed references to the need for a “just transition” in EU policy. Energy poverty is an important issue in Europe today and a number of recent factors risk exacerbating the problem. Action by member states has thus far been limited and differences persist regarding national definitions and approaches. Addressing energy poverty is urgent and the next months will be a test for Europe’s ability to protect the poorest segment of the society while pursuing increasingly ambitious goals of decarbonisation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

16668. Broadening the Transatlantic Partnership to Address the China Challenge

Author:: Carisa Nietsche
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has been a turning point in Europe’s calculus regarding China. Beijing’s ham-fisted mask diplomacy, attempt to rewrite the pandemic’s origins and use of the World Health Organisation to advance the objectives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) underscored for Europe the nature of Beijing’s objectives. Europe has grown more attuned to the “strategic challenge” China poses in the economic, technology and global governance realms as a result. The growing convergence between US and European perspectives on China provides a solid foundation for future cooperation between the transatlantic partners. Yet, addressing the China challenge will require broadening beyond the transatlantic partnership and bringing Indo-Pacific partners to the table.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Communications, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, Transatlantic Relations, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

16669. Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In September 2019, the once anti-establishment Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle – M5S) agreed to enter a ruling alliance with the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico – PD).[1] By establishing this “yellow-red” coalition government with what was considered its political nemesis, the M5S managed to preserve its presence in power and avoid early elections. However, its influence gradually weakened, as attested to by poor performances in local elections. The M5S’s declining political fortunes and the changing composition of the government have a significant foreign policy dimension, especially if addressed through the lens of Italy–US relations. The PD is a solidly pro-Atlanticist party in Italy. The M5S, despite its evolution towards greater pragmatism over the years, remains a source of concern, being still perceived as the most pro-China actor within the Italian political landscape.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Italy, and United States of America

16670. Nuclear Risk Reduction: Looking Back, Moving Forward, and the Role of NATO

Author:: Wilfred Wan
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a difficult geopolitical environment marked by increased tensions among nuclear-armed and nuclear-allied states, there has emerged an urgent and widespread call for the implementation of practical measures to reduce the risk of nuclear-weapon use – whether intentional or inadvertent. A concerted effort to take risk reduction forward must address the spectrum of use scenarios by drawing on past activities, building on existing agreements and considering innovative approaches. NATO will have a key role to play, given the nuclear nature of the Alliance and the involvement of its members in strategic and regional competition. Alliance activities past and present can provide insight relevant to the development of multilateral risk-reduction measures. At the same time, in highlighting the dynamism and multi-faceted nature of risk, they underline the scale of the challenge ahead.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

16671. NATO’s Current and Future Support for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-proliferation

Author:: Rose Gottemoeller and Steven Hill
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Times may be tough in the field of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation (ADN). But ADN is by no means dead. This is a moment of opportunity, a chance to look to the future and consider what we should be doing differently to improve the international architecture for ADN in the future. NATO is in the process of considering how it can adapt to continue to be relevant in the changing global security environment. The time is therefore ripe for the Alliance to take on an enhanced role in preserving and strengthening more effective ADN. There are a number of areas in which it can support these efforts. These include specific steps to preserve and implement the Non-Proliferation Treaty, modernise the Vienna Document, adapt nuclear arms control regimes and deal with emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs). NATO should position itself as a focal point for innovation in the ADN area, including promoting advances in verification, improving the multinational sharing and use of data, and advancing dialogue related to outer space.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

16672. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s

Author:: Ekaterina Stepanova
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria

16673. Emergency Powers, COVID-19 and the New Challenge for Human Rights

Author:: Michele Collazzo and Alexandra Tyan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: “A human crisis that is fast becoming a human rights crisis”. UN Secretary General António Guterres was among the first to raise the alarm about possible human rights implications of government measures to fight COVID-19. Since its outbreak, 87 states – both authoritarian and established democracies – have declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of the virus, which implies certain derogations from international human rights conventions. Protecting the right to life and physical integrity are fundamental duties facing government authorities, commitments enshrined in law – specifically Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Derogations from human rights conventions are permissible under certain circumstances, but any limitation must be motivated by absolute necessity, must not be disproportionate and must be limited in time.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Democracy, Media, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16674. Global Financial Imbalance: Firm-level Evidence from Korea

Author:: Tae Soo Kang, Kyunghun Kim, and Yuri Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the global financial crisis, low interest rates have continued throughout the world. However, financial imbalance has deepened as much of the expanded investment during low interest rates did not lead to increased productivity. This study focused on the increase of marginal firms as a result of the adverse effects of financial imbalances on firms. The marginal firms were identified based on the company's financial statement, and the share of marginal firms by country was compared and analyzed using Worldscope data. As a detailed analysis on the marginal firms, the impact of borrowing interest rate on the possibility of becoming a marginal company was analyzed in the case of Korea with KED data. According to the international comparison, East Asia including Korea, China and Japan has shown a lower share of marginal companies than Europe, South Asia and Latin America. Empirical results through Panel Logit with Sector Fixed Effect Model show that the borrowing rate has a negative correlation with the probability the company will become a marginal company in the case of Korea. However, the impact of an increase in borrowing rates on the likelihood of becoming a marginal company depends on the degree of financial vulnerability. Specifically, an increase in the borrowing rate has a greater impact on the possibility to become ICR<1 in the companies with higher financial vulnerability indexes.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Business, and Business Management
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

16675. Defined Contribution Funded Social Security and Labor Supply: Focus on Mexican Social Security Reform in 1997

Author:: Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Countries adopting a defined benefit pay-as-you-go (DB PAYG) regime have two options to solve the issue of financial unsustainability: (1) a parametric reform, which alters policies within DB PAYG regime, and (2) a structural reform, which changes the regime from DB PAYG to a defined contribution funded (DC) system. In this study, focusing on the structural reform of Mexico in 1997, I investigate whether structural social security reform affects labor supply. The findings suggest that the change in the social security regime increased both labor force participation and work hours per week. However, in the case of the elderly, the intensive margin effect on labor supply was not statistically significant.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, Social Security, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Mexico

16676. Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games

Author:: Youngseok Park and Colin Campbell
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to give up his risky weapons. We show that a player with greater damage from the extremist is more likely to choose an active engagement action than a player with lesser damage. Furthermore, we examine cheap-talk communication equilibria with the extremist. The likelihood of both players choosing the active engagement action decreases by a hawkish extremist who can send a provocative message, if both players are coordination types. If both players are opportunistic types, a dovish extremist can send an appeasement message that causes one player to be more active while another to be more inactive. Lastly, we show that there does not exist any other communication equilibrium for either kind of extremist, for any other combination of player types.
Topic:: Political Economy, International Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Global Focus

16677. Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Respond to the Labor Costs of Host Countries?

Author:: Hanbyul Ryu and Young Sik Jeong
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Using the wage information provided by JETRO, this study examines how Korean FDI outflow is affected by the increase in labor costs of the manufacturing industry in host countries. The results indicate that the worker’s and engineer’s wages in Asian developing countries, who accumulated at least 3 and 5 years of work experience, have generally a negative impact on Korean FDI outflow. However, there exist positive relationships between the wages and FDI when the wages stay at very low levels. We do not find evidence that labor costs make a significant impact on Korean FDI outflow to European or Developed countries.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

16678. Development of the Russian Far East in 20 Years of the Putin Era: Seeking New Directions for Deepening Cooperation between Korea and Russia

Author:: Joungho Park, Seok Hwan Kim, Boogyun Kang, Pavel A. Minakir, Artem G. Isaev, Anna B. Bardal, and Denis V. Suslov
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study is the outcome of a joint research project commemorating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the cooperative relationship between the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Institute for Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI). As is well known, the year 2020 marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia. Therefore, it is time for the two countries to prepare for the “2.0 Era of Korea-Russia Cooperation” while comprehensively evaluating existing achievements and tasks. In particular, in order to build a sustainable relationship between the two countries, it is necessary to establish a strategic contact point between Korea’s New Northern Policy and Russia’s New Eastern Policy, which can be realized through bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Far East. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to understand the main directions, key objectives, and political and economic implications of Russia’s policies in the Far East, which have been strategically pursued since the launch of Putin’s fourth term, and to explore new opportunities and possibilities for development cooperation in the Far East. We hope that this book will serve as a useful guide to open a new path for Far East development cooperation marking the 30th anniversary of Korea-Russia diplomatic relations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, and Korea

16679. The Components of Free Trade Agreements and Their Effects on International Trade

Author:: Moonhee Cho, Young Gui Kim, Kyong Hyun Koo, Hyeri Park, and Hyeyoon Keum
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We analyzes the effects that the components of FTA have on international trade. According to the empirical results, the more free trade agreements contain WTO+ and WTO-X provisions and the more legally enforceable these provisions are, the more bilateral trade increases. We also find that the effects of FTA's provisions on trade depend on the economic level of FTA partner countries.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Free Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16680. Chinaʹs Startup Ecosystem Policy and Implications

Author:: Sangbaek Hyun, Hyojin Lee, Yunmi Oh, and Koun Cho
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Chinese government is moving toward a qualitative growth model in the era of “New Normal,” transitioning from the existing quantitative growth model. In line with the transition, since 2015 the Chinese government has been implementing a strategy of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation,” which involves building a startup ecosystem in order to solve youth unemployment and create new growth engines. Thanks to the success story of China’s BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) and these new policies by the Chinese government, the startup entrepreneurship boom in China has grown rapidly, together with an explosive expansion of infrastructure and platforms for startups. To determine whether China’s economy can be transformed into an innovative economy, we need to carefully examine and evaluate China’s strategy and status of developing the startup ecosystem.
Topic:: Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, Unemployment, and Startup
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16681. The Networking Strategy of Contemporary Chinese Diplomacy

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China is actively building Network Power in economic and traditional security and non-traditional security areas, while in some cases maximizing its own interests by using the Network Power already formed. In particular, China is building Collective Power at a rapid pace in significant areas. China also actively participated in existing networks and established Positional Power by preoccupying important positions. However, China’s Network Power still seems to have a long way to go in terms of Programming Power to build new systems, unlike Collective or Positional Power. What is notable in the process of analyzing China’s Network Power is that competition between the U.S. and China is fierce over Network Power.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

16682. Approaches to Labor Demand Forecast in Developing Economies and Their Implications for Korea's ODA

Author:: Young Ho Park, Yejin Kim, and Minji Jeong
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study aims to develop systematic labor forecast methods, thereby contributing to increasing the efficiency of TVET ODA. This study suggests a new labor demand forecast methodology that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses and applies it to Vietnam, estimating labor demand by occupations in the country’s wireless communication equipment industry. This methodology starts with a statistical projection of Vietnam’s future labor market and industry. Subsequently, this study uses an enterprise survey and stakeholder interviews to complement missing information, as Vietnam's statistical system, like that of many other emerging economies, lacks some detailed data. Currently, the “element occupations” group takes the largest portion in the labor demand by industry and occupation. According to our results, however, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” group is expected to gradually increase, thus becoming the largest occupation group in the wireless communication equipment industry in the near future. Given the various circumstances surrounding the labor market in developing countries, other alternatives in addition to our hybrid method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis can also produce well-founded labor force projections. This study suggests analytical methodologies using global value chain (GVC) and big data as innovative alternatives, which can complement the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods. ODA implementing agencies would benefit from paying attention to the labor forecasting methods presented in this research, and devising policies supporting these methods in order to properly apply them in reality.
Topic:: Communications, Labor Issues, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and Korea

16683. Integrating Climate Change into Development Cooperation – Korea's Experience

Author:: Jione Jung and Jihei Song
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea has reached milestones in development cooperation over the past two decades. At the same time, it has sought for various measures to better incorporate climate consideration in its cooperation activities. However, a number of challenges remain and further action is required in improving the system and practices to better integrate climate change into Korea’s development cooperation. We aim at providing an overview of Korea’s progress in integrating climate change into its development cooperation to share the experiences and to highlight some achievements. In doing so, we first review how other developed countries have promoted climate change integration. Through comparison with Germany, the United States, and Switzerland, we summarized several achievements made by Korea in the area of development cooperation. In addition, we identified areas for further improvement to better integrate climate change into development cooperation, as well as projections for the next phase of Korea’s development cooperation to begin in 2021.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

16684. Foreign Aid to Fragile States: How Effective Does It Work?

Author:: Yul Kwon, Jisun Jeong, Yoon Sun Hur, Jihei Song, Aila Yoo, and Mi Lim Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea has put much effort into providing aid for fragile states in efficient and effective ways. As a part of such efforts, Korea established the Fragile States Assistance Strategy in 2017. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of the effectiveness of Korea’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) implementation under fragile and conflict-affected situations. Accordingly, the study aims to suggest policy suggestions for Korea’s development cooperation in fragile states by comparing and analyzing the current status, policies, and characteristics of aid to fragile states in major donor countries, including Germany, Australia, Denmark, and Japan. In addition, we review Korea’s case and draw following policy implications to tackle the remaining challenges. First, it is requisite for Korea to consolidate the whole-of-government approach and reciprocal coordination mechanisms to support for fragile states for overcoming fundamental causes of fragilites. Second, Korea should choose proper types of aid and sectoral aid allocation suitable for overcoming vulnerabilities and development challenges efficiently and effectively in fragile and conflict-affected states. Lastly, the Korean government should conduct a fragility analysis and manage projects systematically.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Fragile States, and Donors
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

16685. The Way Forward for WTO Reform: Agricultural Subsidies and Special and Differential Treatments

Author:: Jin Kyo Suh, Ji Hyun Park, and Min-Sung Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The multilateral trading system has been in crisis. The world economy has changed significantly since the WTO replaced the previous GATT system and new challenges are quickly piling on top of the old ones. The rising emerging countries and the relative decline of traditional economic members, together with the need to deal with complex new issues such as climate change and e-commerce and digital trade, are shaking the foundations on which the WTO was built some 25 years ago. There is also growing momentum among many WTO members to ‘modernize’ the WTO, including the Appellate Body although the details and feasibility of reform are unclear at this stage. In this perspective, we suggest some ideas on both trade-distorting farm subsidies and S&DT which are the two important issues in the WTO negotiations.
Topic:: Agriculture, Reform, Economy, Multilateralism, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16686. How Chinese Local Governments are Expanding Foreign Economic Cooperation

Author:: Sanghun Lee, Hongwon Kim, Joohye Kim, Jiwon Choi, and Jaehee Choi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and the internal and external economic environment surrounding China changes, so too does China’s strategy for external openness and economic cooperation. Accordingly, specific policies are diversifying from the past focus on manufacturing and foreign direct investment to services, overseas investment, bilateral and multilateral FTAs, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). As the central government’s policy stance changes, China’s local governments are also promoting external openness and cooperation based on regional development stages, industrial structure, and regional development policies, reflecting the central government’s strategy. In particular, after the 19th Party Congress, the central government showed a strategic stance expanding external openness. In response, local governments have moved away from the traditional method of cooperation in the manufacturing sector centered on industrial complexes, and in recent years various cooperative methods have been promoted, including regional economic integration, service and investment, the use of FTAs, and innovations in institutions to expand external openness. Along with the shift in China’s foreign economic strategy, the economic cooperation environment surrounding Korea and China is changing as well, including the strengthening of protectionism, structural changes in the Chinese economy, the Korea-China FTA coming into effect, and the launch of follow-up negotiations. Therefore Korea needs to find new strategies and measures for economic cooperation with China, making it time to find new ways to expand cooperation with China’s central and local governments. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the strategies, detailed policies and major cases of China’s central and local governments’ external openness and economic cooperation, and to draw policy implications for strengthening economic cooperation between Korea and China in the future.
Topic:: Government, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16687. Determinants of FDI in Transition Economies and Implications for North Korea

Author:: Cheol-won Lee, Hyung-gon Jeong, and Min-suk Park
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: North Korean authorities have been seeking changes in North Korea’s economic policy since the Kim Jong Un regime took power. Along with decentralization, the government is trying to increase efficiency and productivity within the socialist economic system, and as part of this policy it has designated 27 economic development zones to attract foreign investment. Foreign direct investment plays a crucial role in economic growth for low-income countries such as North Korea, which lacks capital and technology. This study discusses North Korea's foreign investment policy and tasks ahead of its government to revitalize the economy, based on the premise that nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the US proceed smoothly. First of all, in order to derive policy tasks, we compared and analyzed the achievements and policies of transition countries in Asia and Eastern Europe in terms of attracting FDI, also analyzing the determinants of FDI inflows, after which we present policy tasks for North Korean authorities. As South Korea may very well become the largest investor in North Korea, our study also discusses tasks for the Korean government to pursue in order for Korean companies to successfully invest in North Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Transition
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

16688. U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Its Implications for Korea

Author:: Wonho Yeon
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Recent developments in advanced technology are changing the concept of hegemonic competition. The key feature of technologies in the 4th Industrial Revolution is dual-use. Emerging technologies such as 5G, AI, big data, robotics, aerospace, supercomputers, and quantum computer-related technologies can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The more you invest in the development of advanced technologies, the closer you will be to economic and military hegemony. Therefore, it is no wonder that the U.S. harbors great concerns facing the rise of China in these advanced technologies. To estimate and compare the innovation productivity of the U.S. and that of China, this study constructs a structural estimation model in which each country produces international patents using R&D expenditures and R&D researchers. Empirical results have presented novel findings indicating that China’s innovation productivity has surpassed that of the U.S. since 2015. At the same time we can observe that the U.S. has the world’s largest intellectual property surplus and keeps expanding it, while China’s intellectual property deficit has been growing every year. Given the two contradictory facts - China’s high innovation productivity and low intellectual property balance - we can conclude that China is strong at “innovation” but weak at “invention.” Knowing this, the U.S. eventually began to target this vulnerability. This is the U.S.’ Tech-Decoupling strategy. To achieve U.S.-China tech decoupling, the U.S. has been strengthening trade and investment sanctions against China. In specific, the U.S. has been utilizing the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), Section 889 of the 2019 National Defense Authority Act, and the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA). In return, China is responding to the U.S. sanctions with the new “Long March” strategy rather than a tit-for-tat strategy. In other words, China has been setting long-term aims and responding to the U.S. sanctions by improving institutional arrangements, refining industrial policies, and developing its own technologies such as “Dual-circulation strategy” and “New Infrastructure Plan.” Ironically, increasing pressure from the U.S. is expected to further strengthen China’s R&D capabilities in advanced technology and accelerate its competitiveness in emerging industries. With the onset of the 4th Industrial Revolution, China is rapidly closing the quality gap and technology gap in major industries where Korea has a comparative advantage. If Korea does not adequately respond to changes, it may be difficult to maintain a comparative advantage over China. Thus, now that U.S.-China tensions are intensifying, Korea is facing a pivotal moment in determining the future path of its economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, Investment, Innovation, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

16689. Belt and Road Initiatives: China and South Korea's Economic Ties with South Asia and Nepal

Author:: Bama Dev Sigdel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The main objective of this article is to assess the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in terms of economic interrelations between Asian countries mainly China, Korea, India and Nepal. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most ambitious economic strategies in modern times that alters the economic, political and social relationship between Eastern and Western societies. It not only improves transport networks and facilitates trade, but also raises GDP of many economies. For China, BRI manifests its intention to become the next global power through bigger market access and economic opportunities. Although South Asia is less developed economically, it has high strategic utility for the BRI, which has drawn attention from China to deepen its relations in the region. On the other hand, South Korea has also emerged as a soft power in Asia. It has been playing a significant role in Asia by contributing the majority of its aid, i.e., 35 per cent in Asian economies and a major share of its FDI, i.e., 34.1 per cent. With the rapidly increasing growth of South Korea, it also has a growing relationship with ASEAN and other South Asian economies such as India to reduce its dependence on traditional trade allies. Moreover, for least developed economies like Nepal, the BRI can bring improved infrastructure, needed technology, managerial talents and greater connectivity to the world. South Korea can yield higher benefits through its relation with South Asia and especially Nepal through expansion of export and market access, access to cheap workable manpower to cope with its rising aging population, and less dependence on traditional allies through its investment in South Asian region.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Nepal

16690. The Value-added Creation Effect of Global Value Chain Participation: Industry-level Evidence from APEC Member Economies

Author:: Innwon Park and Soonchan Park
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We analyze the value-added creation effect of GVC participation by applying a standard fixed effects regression model analysis with economy-wide country-industry data. We use OECD Inter-country Input-Output Tables covering 64 countries (21 APEC members and 43 non-APEC members) and 35 industries (1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 3 Mining, 16 Manufacturing, and 15 Service) between 2005 and 2015. We find that APEC member economies’ participation in GVC activities is not distinct from non-APEC member economies but the causal relationship between GVC participation and created domestic value-added is much stronger in APEC member economies. More specifically, from the qualitative evaluation on statistical data, we find that backward linkage has been stronger than forward linkage and both have been recently decreasing. The APEC industries’ upstream positions in production line have been slightly more distinguished than non-APEC industries. From the econometric regression analysis, we find that forward participation in GVCs is more desirable than backward participation in terms of creating domestic value-added. We also find that the industry position in middle stages of production line in contrast to earlier and later stages creates higher domestic value-added per output unit. This implies that the firm-specific conventional U-shaped “Smile Curve Hypothesis” is not applicable at the economy-wide country-industry level, especially in APEC member economies. This finding supports that manufacturing industries are still a major driving force for less developed APEC member economies to move up the development ladder. Considering that gains from GVC participation are diversified across industries and upgrading country-industry positions in GVCs is competitive among the interconnected countries, we strongly recommend for APEC member economies to construct effective domestic value chains and coordinate with other members during their process of upgrading GVC participation.
Topic:: Economies, Global Value Chains, and APEC
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16691. Measuring Convergences and Divergences in APEC RTAs/FTAs: a text-mining approach

Author:: Jeongmeen Suh
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In this paper, I suggest that text mining analysis of regional trade agreements (RTAs) can be a suitable methodology to develop a tangible measure of convergence between RTAs. By utilizing well-established text similarity concepts in related literatures, I attempt to investigate how much RTAs in APEC are converging in terms of how much similar RTA texts are. Furthermore, which areas of RTA converge more or less will be examined. The main results of the study are as follows. The RTAs signed by APEC members are gradually converging over time, and they converged (in terms of 5-gram Jaccard similarity) at an annual average of 8% for all RTAs (both inter- and intra-regional) while 9.7% for intra-regional RTAs only. The areas that converged the most are service and transparency chapters, which show 2.2 times and 1.6 times higher level of convergence than the average, respectively. The objective and intuitive indicators of regional norm convergence are expected to provide a common understanding for setting goals and strategies for regional economic integration in the future.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, Trade, Economic Integration, Regional Economy, and APEC
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16692. Financial Inclusion Through Fintech in the Digital Economy

Author:: Eunsook Seo and Kyeongwon Yoo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the 2008 global financial crisis, including the recent COVID 19 pandemic, low interest rates and low economic growth have continued around the world. In spite of this low interest rate trend, as the economic downturn prolongs, there is a situation of concern called the “new normal” of low interest rates and low economic growth, and low prices. In this new normal economic structure, the rapid progress of aging is increasing the necessity and desire for asset accumulation. In addition, digital finance such as Fin-tech with the evolution of the underlying technologies and the emergence of new technologies has replaced or improved many functions of existing finance in the advent of the 4th industrial revolution era. These changes are expected to bring benefits to the individual and corporate finance sectors, which have been subject to financial inclusion. On the other hand, digital finance, which is changing at such a rapid pace, may further isolate some individuals who were in the blind spot of finance, such as the elderly, and a support system for this is an issue that should be included in the policy of financial inclusion in each country. In this paper we find that Asian countries like other regions have achieved tangible results in financial inclusion while achieving financial deepening. When looking through various financial inclusion indicators such as holding accounts and loans, ATMs, and bank branches, the Asian region has achieved similar or superior performance to other regions. Compared to the income level, the growth of financial inclusion in Asia was found to be attributable to better performance in middle-income countries than in other similar regions. High-income countries in Asia are performing somewhat lower than similar peer groups in other regions, but this seems to be due to stagnation of growth. More seriously, financial inclusion in low-income countries in Asia is not appearing faster than in other income groups. In Asian countries there appears to be a wide variation in regional financial inclusion. However, Asian countries are expanding around the younger generation in the use of ICT technology that is helpful in spreading financial inclusion so if digital inclusive finance centered on Fintech is properly applied, Asian countries will become a new model for digital financial inclusion. However, since the gap in the use of Fintech in the region is large, how to fill this gap is being raised as an important policy task for each country as well as the whole region. We also tentatively examined the effects of financial inclusion and digital financial inclusion in the Asian region using the Asian country panel data collected from WDI and Global Findex data. Looking at the implications of the empirical analysis results even though it is very cautious to interpret the results of this analysis due to the lack of data of inclusive finance in Asia., first, the expansion of financial inclusion(such as ATM) in Asia seems to have some relationship with the reduction of poverty rates and income inequality which is measured with Gini coefficient. And the expansion of internet usage in Asia seems to have some relationship with the reduction of poverty rates and income inequality although we use it as the proxy variables instead of the digital financial inclusion variables. Lastly, the higher share of rural population which is used as a proxy for digital divide, which may occur due to the expansion of digital inclusive finance in Asia, has the potential to erode some of these achievements, but there is still a possibility that the expansion of inclusive finance will be effective. Despite the likelihood of success in digital inclusive finance in the future, digital divide spreads due to various gaps such as between urban and rural areas, between young and old, between low and high income, and between men and women, occurring in Asian countries and may worsen the performance of inclusive finance. Thus the governments in the region need to actively intervene to resolve these gaps. In addition, it is necessary to close the digital gaps that is occurring between countries through policy cooperation among APEC members. Considering the situation that the degree of development of Fintech in each member is expanding financial inclusion, it is necessary for Korean financial companies to set up an advancement strategy that focuses on the financially marginalized class based on the advanced system strategy of credit rating based on big data. Our analysis results will give some implications for the New Southern Policy. Personal and SME finance are very important business areas when financial companies currently enter the ASEAN region, and accurate analysis of each member' current status for Fintech or digital finance and financial inclusion should be given priority in terms of business expansion.
Topic:: Poverty, Financial Crisis, Finance, Income Inequality, COVID-19, Inclusion, and Digital Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

16693. An Uneven Welcome: Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration

Author:: Andrew Selee and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The sudden mass movement of people fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and political unrest in Nicaragua has transformed the migration landscape in Latin America and the Caribbean. Approximately 4.8 million Venezuelans had emigrated by December 2019, the vast majority remaining in the region, and as many as 100,000 Nicaraguans have moved to neighboring Costa Rica since early 2018. This report examines how 11 countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay—are responding to the mass outflows. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and interviews with government officials and representatives of nongovernmental organizations, migrant-led groups, and international actors, the study analyzes efforts to provide newcomers with legal status and to integrate them into schools, health-care systems, and local labor markets—measures that are important for both migrants and the communities in which they are settling. Overall, receiving countries have shown openness and even creativity, providing legal status to many and access to basic education and emergency health care to most. But as the exodus continues and it becomes clear that large numbers of Venezuelans are likely to remain in their host countries in the mid- to long term, the initially warm welcome has begun to cool in places. Capacity constraints in many education and health-care systems, which existed prior to the arrival of large numbers of newcomers, have also become more acute. Looking ahead, the report sets out a range of recommendations for both receiving countries and the international community. Among them: balancing security and flexibility in entry requirements; strengthening asylum systems and other, more nimble legal pathways; and streamlining credential recognition so migrants’ skills can benefit local communities and economies.
Topic:: Education, Health, Immigration, Employment, Economy, Welfare, and Skills
Political Geography:: Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, and Venezuela

16694. The Patchy Landscape of State English Learner Policies under ESSA

Author:: Leslie Villegas and Delia Pompa
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: When the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) was signed into law in 2015, it was hailed as a significant step forward for English Learner (EL) students. The law aimed to raise the profile of accountability for ELs, including in terms of their progress towards English proficiency and their performance in academic subjects. More than four years on, all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have submitted plans to the U.S. Department of Education describing how they intend to meet their commitments under ESSA. But despite anticipation of a clear vision for the future of EL education policy, these plans offer a rather fractured picture and considerable variation. This report provides a detailed breakdown of key aspects of EL education outlined in these state plans. It examines policies governing how students are identified as ELs, assessed, and eventually exited from EL status once they reach proficiency; how their academic achievement is tracked; and the extent to which they are included in state accountability systems. On the whole, the authors conclude, ESSA has fostered more consistency within (though not between) states on matters such as EL identification and reclassification procedures. However, the law has significant shortcomings in other critical areas. For example, it provides no guidance to states on how to address cases involving ELs who do not reach proficiency within the state-determined timeline. The complexity of ESSA’s state accountability framework—with elements pertaining to ELs scattered across it—can also make it difficult to understand how and how much ELs’ performance counts in school accountability ratings. While it is too soon to understand the full impact of ESSA on EL students' academic outcomes and English acquisition, the report points to a number of key areas that merit careful attention from education policymakers and researchers in the coming years.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Law, Language, and ESL
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16695. Chasing Efficiency: Can Operational Changes Fix European Asylum Systems?

Author:: Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: With new EU leadership having taken office in late 2019, Brussels is hungry for fresh ideas that will either revive or reform the Common European Asylum System. The scale and pace of asylum-seeker arrivals on European shores in 2015–16 pushed many Member State systems to a breaking point and brought into glaring focus problems—such as incomplete registration of new arrivals and lengthy case processing backlogs—that existed even before the crisis. Several years on, proposals to address these and other issues through reforms to the EU legal framework for asylum have stalled. Yet, this has also been a period of intense innovation at the national level. Member States have tested new or revamped old ideas to improve the operation of their asylum systems—how they register those seeking protection, offer them reception and material assistance, investigate their protection claims, and then, if their cases are rejected, return them to their origin countries. This MPI Europe-Bertelsmann Stiftung report examines these Member State responses and the wealth of lessons, as well as some cautionary tales, they offer as European leaders contemplate future changes. Among the innovative approaches are the creation in Germany and France of “first-arrival centers” to swiftly register and secure accommodation for newcomers, Swiss “processing centers” that bring together all stakeholders involved in the asylum procedure to make high-quality decisions more quickly, and the Dutch and Swedish “triage” or “track” systems that assign incoming cases to tailored asylum procedures. Understanding this operational dimension—the nuts and bolts of EU asylum systems—is essential for efforts to secure durable improvements. As the author writes, “The era of using (purely) legislative reform to attempt to fix European asylum systems and preserve the integrity of protection regimes has come to an end; the future lies with policy-making approaches, such as a strategic roadmap, that mobilize the full set of tools available.” This is the final report for the Making Asylum Systems Work in Europe initiative, which aims to contribute to efforts to build the capacity of national asylum systems and improve cooperation between EU Member States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe

16696. Immigration and U.S. National Security: The State of Play Since 9/11

Author:: Amy Pope
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The wide-ranging reforms that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States significantly strengthened the national security capabilities of immigration agencies. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created to bridge gaps between the intelligence community and immigration functions. Yet, the restructuring was not comprehensive, and threats to national security continue to evolve. In addition, while the tendency to frame immigration policy through a security lens predates the Trump administration, this now routine practice clouds the picture of who and what pose a threat. This report takes a critical look at the increasingly complex security threats U.S. immigration policy must manage—from public-health emergencies, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, to the activities of transnational criminal organizations. It assesses the tools available to respond to these threats, and the successes and challenges to date in innovating as risks evolve. To do so, it traces the evolution of the country’s immigration and border control system, with a focus on how institutions and processes have developed since 9/11. While the U.S. government has made important progress in shoring up weaknesses in its defenses at the nexus of immigration processes and national security, this analysis identifies a number of critical gaps that remain—from a need to more clearly define mission space, to effectively sharing information and transitioning to electronic-based systems. Under the Trump administration, resources and political will have also been steered away from core DHS national security missions, including disaster response, cyber security, and general policy and planning in favor of immigration enforcement measures focused on low-risk unauthorized migrants and asylum seekers. The challenge ahead, the author writes, is to “rebuild the department’s credibility at home and with foreign partners, while recalibrating resource allocations and strengthening its capacity to respond to and manage the most pressing national security threats.” This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative's home page.
Topic:: International Cooperation, National Security, Immigration, Infrastructure, Governance, Border Control, Refugees, Resettlement, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16697. Using Evidence to Improve Refugee Resettlement: A Monitoring and Evaluation Road Map

Author:: Aliyyah Ahad, Camille Le Coz, and Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The refugee resettlement landscape has shifted considerably in recent years. A number of countries in Europe and elsewhere have launched or expanded their resettlement programs, and some have experimented with new models such as community-based or private sponsorship. At the same time, the United States—long the world’s largest resettlement country—has significantly cut its refugee admissions, leaving other countries to take the lead in global efforts to address displacement. For new and longstanding resettlement programs alike, it is vital that policymakers and program designers have the tools to gauge whether resettlement is meeting its objectives, to facilitate continuous learning, and to ensure that funding is being well spent. Robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) holds the key. Yet many resettlement programs do not have a strong M&E culture. This report examines the added value that M&E can bring to refugee resettlement programs and identifies common obstacles that have kept countries from creating or expanding their M&E operations to date. It then lays out a road map for kickstarting this process—from finding the right “champion” to drive change, to identifying which of a program’s strategic and operational goals to monitor and evaluate, to identifying existing sources of information and designing new data collection tools. These insights are drawn in part from a pilot M&E project conducted by MPI Europe in partnership with resettlement authorities in Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands under the framework of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project. This report was written as part of the EU-FRANK project, which is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries. More MPI Europe research for the EU-FRANK project can be found on this series page.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Law, Refugees, Immigrants, Resettlement, Asylum, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

16698. A Rockier Road to U.S. Citizenship? Findings of a Survey on Changing Naturalization Procedures

Author:: Randy Capps and Carlos Echeverría-Estrada
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Becoming a citizen benefits immigrants and U.S. communities in a variety of ways, including by promoting integration and enabling immigrants to vote and run for public office, sponsor close relatives for immigration, and travel visa free to many countries. Citizens also earn more than noncitizens with similar characteristics, and these higher earnings lead to greater economic activity and higher tax payments. For the approximately 9 million immigrants eligible to naturalize, however, the hurdles to becoming a U.S. citizen appear to be growing. This report presents the Migration Policy Institute’s analysis of a 2019 national survey conducted by the Immigrant Legal Resource Center of 110 naturalization assistance providers. The study aims to understand how U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) naturalization procedures have changed during the Trump administration. USCIS continues to approve the vast majority of citizenship applications, with an approval rate that has hovered around the 90-percent mark since fiscal year 2010, but the time it takes to process an application has grown considerably. This appears to be due at least in part to changing adjudication policies and practices, including those described by the surveyed organizations: About one-quarter of survey respondents reported their clients missed interviews when USCIS sent notices to incorrect addresses, sent them too late, or sent them to the attorney but not the applicant. Interviews had doubled in length, from 20–30 minutes to 45–60 minutes, according to one-quarter of respondents. More than one-third reported USCIS more often issued requests for evidence to support applications, especially for documents related to tax compliance and income, continuous residency and physical presence, marriage and child support, and criminal history. USCIS officers asked detailed questions not directly related to citizenship eligibility, and administered the English and civics tests differently, often more strictly, according to 10 percent of respondents. These changes were underway before a trio of new 2020 developments that threaten to further increase the application backlog and make it more difficult for eligible immigrants to access citizenship: a COVID-19-related suspension of USCIS operations for three months, the likely furlough of two-thirds of the agency’s staff due to a major budget shortfall, and a planned increase in the cost of filing a citizenship application alongside new restrictions on eligibility for fee waivers for low-income applicants.
Topic:: Immigration, Law, Citizenship, Naturalization, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16699. Dismantling and Reconstructing the U.S. Immigration System: A Catalog of Changes under the Trump Presidency

Author:: Sarah Pierce and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Through bold, sweeping changes as well as less-noted technical adjustments, the Trump administration has dramatically reshaped the U.S. immigration system since entering office in January 2017. Now well into its fourth year, the administration has undertaken more than 400 executive actions on immigration, spanning everything from border and interior enforcement, to refugee resettlement and the asylum system, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), the immigration courts, and vetting and visa processes. This reports offers a comprehensive catalog, by topic, of those actions, including their dates and the underlying source materials. The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 gave the administration new openings to push forward many of its remaining immigration policy aims. This period has seen bans on travel and a pause on visa issuance for certain groups of foreign nationals and a further closing off of the U.S.-Mexico border that has effectively ended asylum there. Much of the White House's immigration agenda has been realized in the form of interlocking measures, with regulatory, policy, and programmatic changes driving towards shared policy goals. Though these largely administrative actions could, in theory, be undone by a future administration, this layered approach, coupled with the rapid-fire pace of change, makes it likely that the Trump presidency will have long-lasting effects on the U.S. immigration system.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship, Borders, Donald Trump, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16700. Immigration Enforcement and the Mental Health of Latino High School Students

Author:: Randy Capps, Jodi Berger Cardoso, Kalina Brabeck, Michael Fix, and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As public discourse around immigration has become more highly charged and immigration policies have seen sweeping changes in the United States, immigration enforcement has generated fear in immigrant communities across the country—fears that extend beyond the unauthorized immigrant population to immigrant families with U.S.-born children and legal immigrants. This report explores how fear of immigration enforcement is related to the mental health and school engagement of young Latinos, the fastest-growing group of high school students nationwide. It also considers the role of other stressors, including discrimination and economic hardship, and factors that may support students’ resilience, such as spirituality and strong family relationships. This analysis draws its findings from a study that was conducted by researchers from the Migration Policy Institute, University of Houston, and Rhode Island College during the 2018–19 school year and that had two components: self-assessments completed by hundreds of Latino students in 11 high schools, and semistructured interviews with dozens of education professionals and community experts. The two study sites—Harris County, TX and Rhode Island—offer contrasting immigration-enforcement contexts. Among the study’s findings are: A majority of the students in both Harris County and Rhode Island (67 percent versus 52 percent) feared that someone close to them would be arrested and deported. While fears were more common among youth in Harris County, which has a higher level of immigration enforcement, these findings suggest deportation fears are not limited to places where enforcement is widespread. More than half of the students reported symptoms of mental-health conditions such as anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or depression at levels high enough to warrant treatment. Students who feared immigration enforcement most acutely—and who changed their behaviors as a result—had the worst mental-health outcomes. Almost one-third of students in the study had changed their behavior as a result of enforcement fears. In interviews, educators also described school and community strategies for supporting Latino students’ mental health, including approaches to establishing a welcoming environment, reforming disciplinary practices, and connecting students with in-house and external mental-health resources.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Law Enforcement, Mental Health, Deportation, and Latino Issues
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS