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15581. Analysis of the Brazilian Crisis: Preliminary Effects on South-South Cooperation

Author:
Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva and Niemeyer Almeida Filho
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The current Brazilian political and economic context is one of intense crisis and it will inevitably impact public policies. In 2000’s, practices of International Cooperation and Development (ICD) gained emphasis through organized experience sharing between developing country governments and international organizations. Brazil deepened its partnerships with others Southern countries, a practice that came to be known as South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, following the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the incoming administration introduced government spending limits in the form of a Constitutional Amendment (95/2016) which structurally decreased resources available for SSC and consequently limited possibilities to continue deepening international involvement. This article analyzes the first effects of the new fiscal regime for SSC using a bibliographic review and a case study of the Social Protection.Org platform which is managed by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG), a centre of research excellence established through a partnership between the United Nations and Brazilian government.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global South

15582. Regional Stability: Brazil and the South American Defense Council

Author:
Vinicius Damasceno Nascimento
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The South American Defense Council and Brazil have regional importance, considering that stability in South America is not guaranteed. This study has the objectives of confirming, in military terms, the condition of Brazil as an important regional protagonist; and analyzing its possible contribution to regional stability
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
South America

15583. The US and Russian Resource Rivalry in the Context of the Contemporary Venezuelan Crisis Perils of the Rentier Petro-State

Author:
Anurag Tripathi and Girisanker S.B.
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Venezuela continues to face rampant inflation, poverty and diseases pilling up in light of the US sanctions against PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela,S.A), the Venezuelan state-owned Oil Company. Despite the crisis, Russia continues to play a key role in supporting the regime of Nicolas Maduro and sustaining oil production in the country. The research focuses on the role played by Russia is helping the current regime to survive against the US sanctions and the vested interest it brings along with it. The outcome of the research is to find out the role played by Russian oil industries in shaping Russia’s Foreign Policy in Venezuela and to know whether Moscow has any leverage over the energy sector in Venezuela. The paper gives prime importance to the Venezuelan economy and the Geopolitics of oil. The research aims to give a whole new outlook in the field of International Relations by exploring the nuances of oil giants in shaping relations between countries.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Gas, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

15584. A Look at Taiwan's Cooperation with Paraguay (2009-2019)

Author:
Maria Antonella Cabral Lopez
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Taiwan's situation in the international system is particular and the recognition of other states is key to its survival. Paraguay has maintained diplomatic relations with this Asian country continuously since 1957. This research aims to describe the south - south cooperation of Taiwan with Paraguay during the period 2009 - 2019, a very important facet of the bilateral relationship between both parties. For this, a bibliographic-documentary research was used. In addition is important to mention the level of this was descriptive and primary and secondary sources were employed. Among the main results obtained, it can be seen that non-reimbursable cooperation projects are being adjusted according to five-year negotiations, that there is some continuity regarding the issues addressed by technical cooperation and the existence of other less known initiatives such as conferences and participation in fairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, South America, and Paraguay

15585. East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs

Author:
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
he deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships. Alongside these developments, two new megaregional trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will refocus East Asia’s economic ties in the region itself. The new accords are moving forward without the United States and India, once seen as critical partners in the CPTPP and RCEP, respectively. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that the agreements will raise global national incomes in 2030 by an annual $147 billion and $186 billion, respectively. They will yield especially large benefits for China, Japan, and South Korea and losses for the United States and India. These effects are simulated both in a business-as-before-Trump environment and in the context of a sustained US-China trade war. The effects were simulated before the COVID-19 shock but seem increasingly likely in the wake of the pandemic. Compared with business as before, the trade war generates large global losses rising to $301 billion annually by 2030. The new agreements offset the effects of the trade war globally, but not for the United States and China. The trade war makes RCEP especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion. These shifts bring regional ties closer to institutional arrangements proposed in the 1990s and incentivize greater cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Trade Wars, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Free Trade, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15586. The rise and fall of import substitution

Author:
Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
n the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution—policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods—was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, however, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of such a policy, even among its proponents. This paper traces the rise and fall of import substitution as a development idea. Perhaps surprisingly, early advocates of import substitution were quite cautious in their support for the policy and were also among the first to question it based on evidence derived from country experiences.
Topic:
Economy, Trade Policy, Protectionism, and Imports
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

15587. Harry Johnson's "case for flexible exchange rates"—50 years later

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Fifty years ago, Harry G. Johnson published "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates, 1969," its title echoing Milton Friedman’s classic essay of 1953. Though somewhat overlooked today, Johnson’s reprise was an important element in the late 1960s debate over the future of the international monetary system. In this Working Paper, Obstfeld lays out the historical context in which Johnson’s “Case” was written and read and then examines Johnson’s main points and sees how they stand up to nearly five decades of experience with floating exchange rates since the end of the Bretton Woods system. He also reviews the most recent academic critiques of exchange rate flexibility and asks how fatal they are to Johnson’s basic argument. He concludes that the essential case for exchange rate flexibility still stands strong.
Topic:
History, Monetary Policy, Economy, Central Bank, and Currency
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15588. The short- and long-term costs to the United States of the Trump administration’s attempt to deport foreign students

Author:
Sherman Robinson, Marcus Noland, Egor Gornostay, and Soyoung Han
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On July 6, 2020, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced modifications to the Student and Exchange Visitor Program eliminating temporary exemptions for nonimmigrant students taking all classes online due to the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in the fall 2020 semester. Foreign students violating the rule would be subject to deportation. Under public pressure, the Trump administration rescinded the order on July 14. Had the policy been implemented, more than 1 million foreign students studying in the United States could have been deported. The authors use an economywide simulation model to estimate the economic impact on the United States if the policy had been implemented. They find that the policy would have cost the US economy up to 752,000 jobs and $68 billion in lost GDP in the short run. Their estimates are larger than those reported in other studies because they consider both direct and indirect effects of the policy. In the long run, the move would have reduced the research productivity of American universities and adversely affected research, innovation, and entrepreneurship across the economy, in both the private and public sectors.
Topic:
Education, Migration, Labor Issues, Donald Trump, COVID-19, and Protectionism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15589. Sovereign debt restructuring: The centrality of the IMF's role

Author:
Sean Hagan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Over the past 40 years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a central role in the sovereign debt restructuring process. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to a significant wave of sovereign debt distress, this role will be closely scrutinized. The paper analyzes how IMF policies have evolved to shape the incentives of sovereigns and their creditors at each stage of the sovereign debt restructuring process. It also identifies a number of issues that the IMF will likely have to address as a result of the pandemic, including (1) assessment of debt sustainability in a macroeconomic environment of considerable uncertainty, (2) treatment of official bilateral creditors, and (3) potential benefits—and challenges—of introducing additional incentives to maximize creditor participation in any debt restructuring.
Topic:
Debt, Emerging Markets, Government, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15590. Public procurement in law and practice

Author:
Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser, and Andrei Shleifer
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines a new dataset of laws and practices governing public procurement, as well as procurement outcomes, in 187 countries. The authors measure regulation as restrictions on the discretion of the procuring agents. They find that laws and practices are highly correlated with each other across countries, and better practices are correlated with better outcomes, but laws themselves are not correlated with outcomes. To shed light on this puzzle, they present a model of procurement in which both regulation and public sector capacity determine the efficiency of procurement. In the model, regulation is effective in countries with low public sector capacity and detrimental in countries with high public sector capacity because it inhibits the socially optimal exercise of discretion. The paper finds evidence broadly consistent with this prediction: Regulation of procurement improves outcomes but only in countries with low public sector capacity.
Topic:
Government, Law, Regulation, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Global Focus