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11851. Moscow's Central Role: Have the Rules of Engagement Changed in Syria after the recent Israeli Strikes?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On July 19, 22 and 25, Israel carried out three strikes in less than one week using surface-to-air missiles against Syria. These strikes are considered the first of their kind executed by the new Israeli "Bennett-Lapid" government. Although this type of strikes is not novel, the Russian reaction to it was different this time. The Russian Ministry of Defense engaged in the scene for the first time, sending indirect messages to Israel. This made analysts refer to a possible shift in the rules of engagement in Syria. The understandings between Moscow and Tel Aviv were based on Moscow turning a blind eye to Israeli fighters launching airstrikes in Syria against Iranian targets, in return for Israel not targeting Syrian regime forces or Russian forces, which provide direct support to the Syrian army against the armed opposition. The Russian position reflected a clear desire to weaken the Iranian military presence in Syria, particularly with the escalation of rivalry between Moscow and Tehran over economic and military influence there.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

11852. Correcting the Course: Will splits within Tunisia’s Ennahda lead to its collapse?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a statement issued on July 31, some 130 members of Tunisian Ennahda Movement, including five members of the parliament, members of the party’s executive office and Shura Council, members of municipal and local offices called on Rached Ghannouchi, the main leader of the movement and saker of the parliament, to prioritize the country’s national interests and take any necessary measures to bring the parliament back to normal. Additionally, Mohamed al-Nouri, a leader of Ennahda, announced his resignation from the party’s Shura Council. The signatories to the statement also urged the party’s leaders to take full responsibility for failure to fulfill the demands of people and understanding the reasons of turmoil. They believe that the party failed to respond to the demands and needs of people undergoing hard economic and social conditions due to soaring prices, plummeting purchasing power and rising unemployment, all compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Topic:
Economy, Unemployment, Political Parties, COVID-19, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

11853. A Spiraling Crisis: The different scenarios of Ethiopia’s civil war amid Tigray’s military advancement

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Over the past nine months, Ethiopia has been reeling under a civil war that broke out between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The conflict, however, saw two important developments, with the first being that the war has spilled over the region’s border into Amhara and Afar. The second development is that Addis Ababa refused to allow corridors via Sudan for humanitarian aid bound for Tigray Region. Addis Ababa took this stand despite the United Nation’s warning that 400,000 people are left on the verge of famine in the beleaguered region and that 90 per cent of the population need lifesaving food aid.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

11854. Pragmatic Adaptation: American Surrender and Regional Acceptance After Taliban’s Takeover of Afghanistan

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Ousted Afghan president Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan on August 15th when the Taliban reached the outskirts of the capital Kabul. At the time, a source close to Taliban stressed that the two sides reached an agreement whereby Ghani should step down and hand over power to a transitional administration. While the United States and the European Union might well consider the use of sanctions as a weapon against the Taliban, if the movement does not live up to its commitment not to target US and European citizens leaving Afghanistan, it should be noted that most of Afghanistan’s neighbors expected the collapse of the Afghan government – although not this fast- and even began to open up to the Taliban. Irreversible US Withdrawal The United States defended its decision to pull out of Afghanistan rebuffing criticism both at home and abroad. It reiterated that kept forces in Afghanistan twice as long as the Soviets. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said remaining in Afghanistan is “simply not in the national interest.” He added that the US succeeded in the mission of reducing attacks on its soil and interests. The US withdrawal will leave wide repercussions both regionally and internationally.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Taliban, European Union, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Adaptation, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, South Asia, Turkey, India, and United States of America

11855. Remarkable Shift Implications of the Meeting of US Envoy to Libya with General Haftar in Cairo

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The US Embassy in Libya recently announced that US Special Envoy and Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland met General Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the Libyan National Army in Cairo between August 11-12 2021, as part of US efforts to support the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for December. The announcement followed statements in which Noland noted Haftar’s role in unifying the Libyan army. Norland also called on regional and international parties to help in the removal of foreign forces from Libya, much to the anger of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, who sensed a change in Washington’s attitude towards their organization. This was made even more evident when Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second son of Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi, spoke to the New York Times in an interview published on July 30. In the interview, Qaddafi asserted that he would run for president in the coming elections. The development indicates Washington’s current attitude towards parties to the conflict in Libya and its potential approval of Gaddafi’s presidential candidacy.
Topic:
Oil, Islamic State, Conflict, Muslim Brotherhood, and Khalifa Haftar
Political Geography:
Turkey, Libya, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

11856. Economy First: Assigning Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman to form the new Algerian government

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Finance Minister Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman (60 years old) has been assigned to form the new Algerian government, as he is a technocrat who is not affiliated with any political or ideological currents. This is in addition to his economic and financial expertise, which will be critical in handling the internal challenges, particularly with respect to dealing with the Hirak movement, tackling economic crisis and facing security threats. On June 30, 2021, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune issued a decree appointing Ayman Ben Abdel Rahman as Prime Minister to succeed Djerad, who submitted his resignation on June 24, following the announcement of the final results of the latest parliamentary elections. Abdel Rahman was assigned to consult with the winning political parties to form a new government as soon as possible. Abdel Rahman was assigned as the country's Prime Minister, in accordance with the provisions of the 5th and 7th paragraphs of Article "91" of the Algerian constitution, which grants the Algerian president the authority to assign a person to form a national government to manage the country's affairs.
Topic:
Government, Finance, Economy, Ideology, and Hirak Movement
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

11857. The Attack on Karaj: Analysis of the attack on an Iranian atomic energy agency facility

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ‘shadow war’ between Iran and Israel continues. The sabotage operations remain, evident in the attacks on Natanz, the most famous uranium enrichment facility in Iran in July 2020 and in April 202, and assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran. This is in addition to the mutual targeting of ships in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, the Mediterranean and the Red Sea between the two sides.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Violence, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

11858. Possible Polarization: The repercussions of the Beirut port blast investigation on the Lebanese political scene

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The investigations into the Beirut port blast, which took place in August 2020, witnessed significant developments recently. The judicial investigator, Judge Tariq Bitar, issued a series of rulings starting on July 2, stipulating the investigation of former ministers, current representatives as well as security and military leaders, with a demand to lift the immunity of some for the purpose of conducting investigations with them.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Leadership, Polarization, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Beirut

11859. A Constant Deadlock: Failure of Initiatives to Resolve the Current Tunisian Political Crisis

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In early July 2021, a number of political parties and civil society organizations formed what is known as the Referendum Front, calling for the resignation of the Prime Minister and the Parliament, as well as conducting early elections. Meanwhile, the Ennahda government called for the formation of a political government headed by Al-Mashishi, which reflects the attempts of the concerned parties to resolve the current crisis. Such conflicting statements coincided with the Fitch announcing on July 8, 2021 reducing Tunisia’s sovereign rating from “B” to “B-” with further negative prospects. This is the ninth reduction since 2011. The Governor of the Central Bank emphasized that the reduction is caused by political instability and politicians hindering subsidy and wages reform.
Topic:
Referendum, Political Crisis, Parliamentarism, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:
Middle East and Tunisia

11860. The Second Government Benabderrahmane’s prospects for stabilizing Algeria

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The formation of the new Algerian government led by Ayman Benabderrahmane, former minister of finance, was announced on July 7, following his consultations with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and the political parties which won the recent parliamentary elections. The new cabinet is made up of 34 ministers, including 17 new ministers, who joined those who retained their positions in the former government.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Political stability, Political Parties, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa