Publishing Institution: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center / Political Geography: Asia / Publication Year: within 25 Years

1. Chinese Intentions in the South China Sea

Author:: Oriana Skylar Mastro
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: What are China's intentions in the South China Sea? In The 2020-21 Wilson China Fellowship: Essays on the Rise of China and Its Implications, Oriana Skylar Mastro uses a two-part analytical framework to outline why she believes China is trying to establish de facto control over the South China Sea. This means sovereignty over the disputed islands and the ability to dictate the rules of behavior in the surrounding waters. These intentions are detrimental to U.S. and allied interests. Mastro goes on to provide a list of recommended measures the United States can take to prevent Beijing from incrementally advancing its control over the South China Sea
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Territory
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South China Sea

2. The Crisis After the Crisis: How Ladakh Will Shape India’s Competition with China

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In May 2020, China launched several near-simultaneous incursions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, into territory hitherto controlled by India. Both sides reinforced their positions with tens of thousands of troops, engaged in a deadly skirmish, and reportedly came close to war. An agreement to disengage troops was announced in February 2021, but implementation has been halting. Regardless of how disengagement progresses, the crisis poses significant challenges for India’s long-term strategic competition with China. As a result of the Ladakh crisis, India faces a new strategic reality in which China is a clear and abiding adversary. For India, the political relationship is now defined by hostility and distrust, and the LAC will remain more heavily militarised and violence-prone. Given this new reality, India is likely to further defer military modernisation and maritime expansion into the Indian Ocean. In the face of unremitting Chinese naval expansion, India risks losing significant political and military leverage in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, China appears to have escaped significant harm. Its better-resourced military could better absorb the material costs of the mobilisation. It may have been more concerned by the prospect of an increasingly hostile India, but the disengagement agreement has limited even those modest political costs. The central policy challenge for India is balancing the heightened Chinese military threat on the northern border with the rapidly growing Chinese military presence in the Indian Ocean. It can manage this challenge by focusing on military strategies of denial rather than punishment, focusing on imposing political rather than material costs on China, and accepting more risk at the LAC in exchange for long-term leverage in the Indian Ocean region. How India responds will shape not only its strategic competition with China, but also the interests of likeminded partners including Australia, which depend on an increasingly capable and active India.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

3. Women Left Behind

Author:: Radhika Jain and Pascaline Dupas
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Using administrative data on over 4 million hospital visits, we document striking gender disparities within a government health insurance program that entitles 46 million poor individuals to free hospital care in Rajasthan, India. Females account for only 33% of hospital visits among children and 43% among the elderly. These shares are lower for more expensive types of care, and far lower than sex differences in illness prevalence can explain. Almost two-thirds of non-childbirth spending is on males. We combine these data with patient survey, census, and electoral data to show that 1) the program is unable to fully offset the costs of care-seeking, which results in disparities in hospital utilization because some households are willing to allocate more resources to male than female health; 2) lowering costs does not reduce disparities, because males benefit as much as females do; and 3) long-term exposure to village-level female leaders reduces the gender gap in utilization, but effects are modest and limited to girls and young women. In the presence of gender bias, increasing access to and subsidizing social services may increase levels of female utilization but fail to address gender inequalities without actions that specifically target females.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Health Care Policy, Women, Inequality, and Health Insurance
Political Geography:: India and Asia

4. Mitigating the Risk of a China–India Conflict

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The Ladakh crisis between China and India seems to have settled into a stalemate, marked by somewhat reduced tactical tensions and continuing fruitless talks on disengagement—but its trajectory could again turn suddenly, even flaring into a limited conventional war. Despite a limited disengagement, both sides continue to make military preparations near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to increase their readiness for potential conflict. While China proved its revisionist intent with its 2020 incursions, its specific goals and plans remain opaque. The broader political context is marked by distrust and hostility, and bilateral relations are at their lowest ebb in decades. War remains unlikely—both sides can ill-afford the distraction from higher national priorities and have demonstrated a recent keenness to step back from the brink. But, with growing capabilities and unclear intent, and with military operations no longer impaired by winter, the Ladakh crisis may still escalate to conflict. The crisis has been full of surprises. Despite observing major military maneuvers in China, India didn’t anticipate the multiple incursions across the LAC in May 2020. For weeks thereafter, the Indian Army leadership insisted the incursions were nothing out of the ordinary. After both sides agreed to an early disengagement plan, the crisis took a shocking turn with a deadly skirmish in June — the first loss of life on the LAC in 45 years. India also mustered its own surprises, deploying troops to occupy tactically valuable heights in late August, to gain some bargaining leverage. And the crisis also abated with a surprise, with the sudden announcement of disengagement from heavily militarised stand-off sites around Pangong Tso Lake in February 2021. Future surprises may yet occur. This paper argues that the risk of China–India conflict is significant because, even if its likelihood is low, its consequences may be considerable. A limited conventional war would be likely to impose significant costs on India, but, depending on the reactions of its partners, it may also reinforce latent Indian suspicions over the utility and reliability of its strategic partnerships. In that way, even a localized limited war on the LAC may have far-reaching implications, if it incidentally drives a wedge between India and its partners in the Quad. Mitigating that risk will require sound policy settings and astute diplomatic and public messaging from Canberra, Washington, Tokyo, and other like-minded capitals. The remainder of this paper is in three parts: first, why a border war is plausible; second, what costs it would impose on India and how it might stir distrust of India’s Quad partners; and, finally, a framework to mitigate those risks.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Risk, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

5. Military Competition With China: Harder Than the Cold War?

Author:: Oriana Skylar Mastro
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro begins her paper by emphasizing that U.S. national defense strategy has characterized the US-China relationship as one of great power competition (GPC). Both the US and China have existing relationships in the Indo-Pacific region and are undergoing efforts to foster new relationships there as well. China’s efforts, however, conflict with US military efforts to promote peace, strategy, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific, making them much harder to achieve. Mastro argues that it will be difficult to deter China’s efforts — perhaps even more difficult than it was to deter the Soviet Union’s efforts during the Cold War. She cites the geography of the Asia-Pacific (compared to that of Central Europe), the US’s ongoing struggle to establish a credible deterrent, China’s range of options for nonlethal but effective uses of force, and the lack of US willingness to grant China a parallel sphere of influence to that in which the Soviet Union was allowed to control as evidence to support her claim. Thus, Mastro recommends that the US must avoid relying on the same Cold War tools and competition strategies in its competition with China, despite their success in the past. Instead, the US needs to combat the threat posed by China through 1) convincing China that the costs of using force outweigh the benefits and 2) forging a counterbalancing coalition of allies and partners that are confident that the US will not only protect them from a military attack but other costly behaviors (e.g., economic coercion, diplomatic isolation) that China may leverage against them as well.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. Our Epistemological Crisis: "Ilmu Budaya" and "Two Cultures" Revisited

Author:: Donald K. Emmerson
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This talk on the subject of scientific research was delivered virtually on 1 November 2021 to mark the anniversary of the official opening on 1 November 1958 of what is now called the Faculty of Cultural Sciences at Padjadjaran University in suburban Bandung, Indonesia. In his remarks, Donald K. Emmerson recalls his experience as a student in Indonesia, discusses the rejection and subversion of the distinction between fact and opinion in what he calls “our epistemological crisis," and ends with comments on a different but related distinction: the institutional separation of the humanities from the sciences, as if they were two different spheres of thought and specialization.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Culture, Research, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

7. Is America Really Back?

Author:: Thomas Fingar
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Following the 2021 Taihe Civilizations Forum, the Taihe International Communications Center hosted an online discussion on October 8 that captures the candid and profound reflections of senior officials whose actions have shaped the course of ties between China and the United States. Dr. Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and former Assistant Secretary of State, and Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret.), Senior Fellow at Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, China Forum Expert, and former Director of Center for Security Cooperation of the Office for International Military Cooperation of Ministry of National Defense, were invited to join this dialogue. During their conversation, Dr. Fingar and Senior Colonel Zhou exchanged ideas on important topics such as the current state of China-U.S. relations, the future development of the two countries' bilateral ties, the rationale behind the US foreign policy and the American alliance system, as well as the "extreme competition" that China and the U.S. are trapped in.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8. Intended and Unintended Consequences of a New Limit on Working Hours in South Korea: Implications for Precarious Employment

Author:: Sungchul Park and Hansoo Ko
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Effective as of July 1, 2018, South Korea set a new cap on employees’ weekly working hours, decreasing the maximum number from 68 to 52. In this study, we comprehensively analyze the effectiveness of the law’s implementation by observing changes in work time, health status, health care utilization, health behavior, monthly expenses, and satisfaction between pre- and post-implementation periods (2014–2017 vs. 2019). We find evidence of both intended and unintended consequences—and, in this last category, some are beneficial and some not. As intended, employees eligible for the 52-hour work week saw their average working hours decrease, while their monthly spending on leisure increased substantially. A beneficial unintended consequence was that work time also decreased in firms with less than 300 employees that had not yet implemented the 52-hour work schedule (they have done so since, in January 2020). Among adverse unintended consequences, the most notable were heterogeneous effects across employment types (full-time vs. precarious employment) and, in particular, negative impacts on precarious employees (that is, those facing relatively high levels of job insecurity). Despite almost no change in their work time, precarious employees saw substantial increases in outpatient visits and monthly expenses for health care, indicating suggestive evidence of adverse health consequences. Another adverse unintended consequence was that overall job satisfaction decreased among several groups of employees. This may reflect a heavy workload among employees still expected to work overtime, especially experienced employees or those working in large firms. While employment rates increased after the new schedule’s implementation, the majority were in precarious jobs. This has negative implications because of the adverse health impacts of being in precarious employment; also, the workload of experienced employees in this field might have intensified amid all the new hiring. Our findings suggest key policy recommendations for how to leverage the benefits of the 52-hour cap on weekly working hours while addressing its negative unintended consequences.
Topic:: Health, Labor Issues, Employment, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

9. Exploring India's Strategic Futures

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: he method of major/minor trends developed in this report suggests that the roots of apparently surprising future behavior can be found in a close reading of a target state’s history. Using this method, the report outlines three unlikely but plausible alternative futures of India as a strategic actor. The first scenario envisions India as a Hindu-nationalist revisionist power hostile to Pakistan but accommodating of China; in the second, it is a militarily risk-acceptant state that provokes dangerous crises with China; and in the third scenario, India is a staunch competitor to China that achieves some success through partnerships with other U.S. rivals like Russia and Iran. These scenarios are designed not to predict the future but to sensitize U.S. policymakers to possible strategic disruptions. They also serve to highlight risks and tensions in current policy.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, India, Asia, and North America

10. Exploring India's Strategic Futures

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The method of major/minor trends developed in this report suggests that the roots of apparently surprising future behavior can be found in a close reading of a target state’s history. Using this method, the report outlines three unlikely but plausible alternative futures of India as a strategic actor. The first scenario envisions India as a Hindu-nationalist revisionist power hostile to Pakistan but accommodating of China; in the second, it is a militarily risk-acceptant state that provokes dangerous crises with China; and in the third scenario, India is a staunch competitor to China that achieves some success through partnerships with other U.S. rivals like Russia and Iran. These scenarios are designed not to predict the future but to sensitize U.S. policymakers to possible strategic disruptions. They also serve to highlight risks and tensions in current policy.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nationalism, Religion, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11. The Effects of India’s COVID-19 Lockdown on Critical Non-COVID Health Care and Outcomes

Author:: Radhika Jain and Pascaline Dupas
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: India’s COVID-19 lockdown is widely believed to have disrupted critical health services, but its effect on non-COVID health outcomes is largely unknown. Comparing mortality trends among dialysis patients in the eight months around the lockdown with the previous year, we document a 64% increase in mortality between March and May 2020 and an estimated 22-25% total excess mortality through July 2020. The mortality increase is greater among females and disadvantaged groups. Barriers to transportation and disruptions in hospital services appear to be the main drivers of increased morbidity and mortality. The results highlight the unintended consequences of the lockdown on critical and life-saving non-COVID health services that must be taken into account in the implementation of future policy efforts to control the spread of pandemics.
Topic:: Public Health, Transportation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Hospitals
Political Geography:: India and Asia

12. Healing One-fifth of Humanity: Progress and Challenges for China’s Health System

Author:: Karen Eggleston
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China’s national health reforms over the past two decades have brought the system closer to the modern, safe, reliable and accessible health system that is commensurate with China’s dramatic economic growth, improvement in living standards, and high hopes for the next generation. Celebrating a decade this year, China’s national health reforms of 2009 consolidated a system of social health insurance covering the entire population for basic health services, contributing to a surge in healthcare utilization while reducing out-of-pocket costs to patients – which declined from 56% to 28% of total health expenditures between 2003 and 2017. An expanded basic public health service package, funded by per capita government budget allocations that include a higher central government subsidy for lower income provinces, provides basic population health services to all Chinese. A higher percentage of Chinese accessed hospital admissions in 2017 than in the average high-income (OECD) country – a large increase from the turn of the 21st century.i A recent re-shuffle of the governance structure consolidates the purchaser role for social health insurance schemes under the newly created National Healthcare Security Administration, with most other health sector functions under the re-christened National Health Commission, among other changes. China’s world-leading technological prowess in multiple fields spanning digital commerce to artificial intelligence—and accompanying innovative business models such as WeDoctor that have not yet been fully integrated into the health system—hold promise for supporting higher quality and more convenient healthcare for China’s 1.4 billion.
Topic:: Health, Science and Technology, Governance, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

13. ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done?

Author:: Asia-Pacific Research Center
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In October 2017, twenty-two scholars from eight countries attended a workshop titled “ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What should be done?” The workshop was designed to facilitate a frank and creative discussion of policy recommendations, with the intention of providing the resulting proposals to ASEAN member states and other regional powers. Following two days of discussion and debate, the attendees produced a series of specific policy recommendations (SPRs).
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Asia

14. Rural-Urban Disparities in the Utilization of Mental Health Inpatient Services in China: The Role of Health Insurance

Author:: Junfang Xu, Jian Wang, Madeleine King, Ruiyun Liu, Fenghua Yu, Jinshui Xing, Lei Su, and Mingshan Lu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Reducing rural-urban disparities in health and health care has been a key policy goal for the Chinese government. With mental health becoming an increasingly significant public health issue in China, empirical evidence of disparities in the use of mental health services can guide steps to reduce them. We conducted this study to inform China’s on-going health-care reform through examining how health insurance might reduce rural-urban disparities in the utilization of mental health inpatient services in China.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Mental Health, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15. Substance Abuse Policy in Thailand: Current Challenges and Future Strategies

Author:: Darika Saingam
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Substance abuse has been an important social and public health problem in Thailand for decades. The National Household Survey on Substance and Alcohol Use in Thailand, which has been conducted six times, shows that substance abuse has steadily increased. Extrapolated country-wide in recent data, the estimated number of people who have used at least one addictive substance at some time in their lives was 2,964,444 or 5.8% of the total population aged 12 - 65 years. Kratom, Methamphetamine, methamphetamine hydrochloride crystal (ice), and cannabis were the most prevalent substances of abuse. Historical documentation and policy reports were used in this study. The objectives of this study were to complete a document review, determine the effectiveness of previous measures to control illegal substance abuse in Thailand, and consider options for the future. Controlling illegal substance abuse in the future and minimizing total harm requires a delicate balance of efforts to reduce the prevalence, quantity, and harmful effects of substances. Drug policy interventions should be continually evaluated for their effectiveness. The strategies relevant to drug policy, apart from primary prevention, are health services for chronic drug users, reform of criminal sanctions against drug addicts, and legalization of kratom.
Topic:: Health, Drugs, and Substance Abuse
Political Geography:: Asia and Thailand

16. Organizing Old Age Pensions for India’s Informal Workers: A Case Study of a Sector-Driven Approach

Author:: M.R. Narayana
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: About 88 percent of India’s total labor force is composed of informal (officially labeled “unorganized”) workers. As many as 388 million such workers lack old age income security by way of a pension system. The Atal Pension Yojana (APY) is the latest contributory, national-level old age pension scheme for unorganized workers, with an entry age of 18–40 years. In other words, all current unorganized workers above the age of 40 are excluded. How could a national pension system viably guarantee equal pension benefits to all current unorganized workers? This paper considers how such a system might work by offering a case study of a non-contributory pension scheme for building and other construction workers in Karnataka State, India. The results indicate that this state-level pension scheme, fully funded by sector-specific receipts, is financially viable and sustainable with high levels of coverage and adequacy. The robustness of these results is shown via sensitivity analyses of discount rates, inflation rates, and growth rates of specific purpose tax collections. Additional analyses outline the scenarios under which pension benefits could be extended to all informal workers in the sector studied.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Work Culture, Unions, and Pension
Political Geography:: India and Asia

17. Dual Practice of Public Hospital Physicians in Vietnam

Author:: Ngan Do and Young Kyung Do
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Although many public hospital physicians in Vietnam offer private service on the side, little is known about the magnitude and nature of the phenomenon of so-called dual practice, let alone the dynamics between the public and private health sectors. This study investigates how and to what degree public hospital physicians engage in private practice. It also examines the commitment of dual practitioners to the public sector. The analysis is based on a hospital-based survey of 483 physicians at 10 public hospitals in four provinces of Vietnam. Nearly half of the participants in the study sample reported themselves as dual practitioners. Various types of private practice were mentioned. Private practice at health facilities owned by the private sector was the most prevalent, followed by private practice delivered at health facilities owned by the dual practitioners themselves. Private practice inside public hospitals was also noted. Dual practitioners were likely to be senior and hold management positions inside their public hospitals. Substantial income differences were found between dual practitioners and those physicians practicing in only the public sector. The majority of dual practitioners, however, reported the willingness to give up private practice if certain conditions were met, such as a basic salary increase or non-pecuniary benefits. The main reasons dual practitioners gave for not leaving the public sector included a sense of public responsibility and opportunities to gain a broader professional network and more training. This study reiterates the significant challenges associated with dual practice, including its financial implications and possible effects on health care quality and access. The need for a high-quality workforce committed to the public sector is particularly critical, given the possibility of universal insurance coverage. Future research should address the need to improve data collection on physicians’ dual practice and incorporate the topic in policy debates on health reform.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Reform, and Hospitals
Political Geography:: Asia and Vietnam

18. Economic Dimensions of Personalized and Precision Medicine in Asia: Evidence from Breast Cancer Treatment in Taiwan

Author:: Jui-fen Rachel Lu and Karen Eggleston
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: High costs of precision medicine raise concerns about exacerbating income-related disparities in healthcare utilization and health outcomes. One approach to expanding coverage in Asia has been to cover the precision therapy but require the pharmaceutical firm to cover the costs of the companion diagnostic test. Taiwan’s National Health Insurance (NHI) adopted this approach for lung cancer, colorectal cancer and leukemia, but not for the first target therapy covered by NHI, trastuzumab for the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer. Analyzing a unique dataset linking medical claims, cancer registry data and proxies for income between 2004 and 2015, we find that lower-income patients are more likely to be diagnosed with later stages of breast cancer, and this pattern renders NHI coverage of anti-HER2 therapy pro-poor even before full coverage of the diagnostic tests. Moreover, the expansion of NHI coverage—including the FISH diagnostic test and trastuzumab for early-stage breast cancer—strengthened the pro-poor distribution of genetic testing and target treatment, albeit only marginally. The extent of pharmaceutical company coverage of testing and its impact on patient access are topics of our ongoing research, contrasting breast cancer with colorectal cancer.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Economic Inequality, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

19. Taiwan's Place in the Evolving Security Environment of East Asia

Author:: Kharis Templeman
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In March 2018 the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project, a part of the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative at Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia- Pacific Research Center, convened a workshop that examined Taiwan’s place in the evolving security environment of East Asia. Participants from the United States, Taiwan, and elsewhere in Asia were experts on a wide array of economic, diplomatic, and security topics. The discussions at the workshop were intended to place Taiwan’s security challenges in a broader regional context, to consider possible obstacles to and opportunities for greater multilateral cooperation on security issues, and to devise a set of recommendations for steps that Taiwan and its friends and partners could take to enhance regional security relationships.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Democracy
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

20. People with Disabilities in a Changing North Korea

Author:: Katharina Zellweger
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: "People with Disabilities in a Changing North Korea" details the situation that people with disabilities face in the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea (DPRK). Despite its reputation as a repressive, closed society where human rights are routinely abused, there are in fact institutions in the DPRK that work to address the needs of the disabled, and a number of non-governmental organizations providing aid to disabled people are active in the country. In this paper, Katharina Zellweger attempts to provide "an informed and balanced view of what it means to live with disabilities in North Korea and current work to assist the disabled."
Topic:: Health, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

21. Empirical Investigation of Declining Childbirth: Psychosocial and Economic Conditions in Japan

Author:: Tetsuji Yamada, Chia-Ching Chen, Chie Hanaoka, and Seiritsu Ogura
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Background: For the past two decades, more and more women in certain European countries, Japan, and the United States are giving birth to their first child at a considerably later age than ever before. It remains unclear as to what extent this age-related general fertility decline is affected by changing social and cultural norms. Method: The Global Centers of Excellence Survey was conducted by Osaka University in Japan (n=5313) in 2009. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to examine the impact of psychosocial norms, cultural differences, and economic conditions on the perception of childbearing. Results: The findings suggest that a subjective measure of happiness has a significant influence on childbearing. A society with income inequalities between classes discourages childbearing. It is observed that women's higher labor force participation generates a negative impact on motherchild relations which causes discouragement of childbearing. A higher female labor force participation stemmed from a transition of a traditional society into a modern and marketoriented society discourages childbearing. Conclusions/implications: A woman's decision to delay childbearing is based on her perception of psychosocial norms with surrounding economic environment and her own value of opportunity in the market oriented society. Childbearing also imposes psycho-economic burdens on the working population under mix of a traditional, patriarchal society, and a modern market oriented framework. Childbearing incentives could be a strategic policy to encourage positive attitudes of childbearing in general and proper welfare policy, labor law(s), employment conditions, and social security system for a working mother with a child or children.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

22. The Roles of Gender and Education on the Intrahousehold Allocations of Remittances of Filipino Migrant Workers

Author:: Marjorie Pajaron
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper shows that the individual's bargaining power within the household, proxied by gender and educational attainment of household head, affects how remittances sent by Overseas Filipino Workers are spent in the Philippines. Gender of the household head, not of the remitter, matters in the allocation of remittances. As remittances increase, female heads with absent spouses spend less on alcohol and tobacco while male heads with absent spouses spend more on these goods; regardless of gender, household heads with less education allocate more to education than those with more education.
Topic:: Economics, Education, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, and Philippines

23. The Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum

Author:: Walter H. Shorenstein
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Meeting after North Korea had raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the spring, participants in the Tenth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum focused on the implications for the Korean Peninsula of leadership changes in North and South Korea and especially China. Participants also focused on regional dynamics, including increased confrontation between China and Japan and various, sometimes conflicting, efforts to increase regional economic integration in Northeast Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

24. Prevention and Control of Chronic Non-communicable Disease in Nine Pacific Rim Cities

Author:: Karen Eggleston, Meng Kin Lin, Kun Chen, Yunxian Yu, Sung-Il Cho, Sian Griffiths, EK Yeoh, Jamal Hisham Hashim, Masamine Jimba, Carl Anderson Johnson, Paula Palmer, Vu-Anh Le, Huu-Bich Tran, Ngoc-Quang La, and Bambang Wispriyono
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Populous, economically dynamic, and rapidly urbanizing, the Asia Pacific both reflects and strongly shapes trends in global public health. A comparative assessment of chronic disease prevalence, risk factors, and policy responses in nine Pacific Rim cities shows that chronic diseases are rapidly becoming the leading cause of morbidity and mortality even in the lower income cities of the Pacific Rim. Policy responses are heterogeneous, with few sufficiently funded or adequately informed by evidence. Much could be learned from comparative research and rigorous evaluation of prevention and control initiatives in this region.
Topic:: Globalization and Health
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

25. Principal-Agent Problems in Health Care: Evidence from Prescribing Patterns of Private Providers in Vietnam

Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The principal-agent problem in health care asserts that providers, being imperfect agents for patients, will act to maximize their profits at the expense of the patients' interests. This problem applies especially where professional regulations are lacking and incentives exist to directly link providers' actions to their profits, such as a fee-for-service payment system. The current analysis tests for the existence of the principal-agent problem in the private health market in Vietnam by examining the prescribing patterns of the private providers. We show that (1) private providers were able to induce demand by prescribing more drugs than public providers for a similar illness and patient profile; (2) private providers were significantly more likely to prescribe injection drugs to gain trust among the patients; and (3) patients' education as a source of information and empowerment has enabled them to mitigate the demand inducement by the providers. Our hypotheses were supported with evidence from Vietnam National Health Survey 2001 and 2002, the first and, so far, only comprehensive health survey in the country.
Topic:: Health and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

26. Striking the Right Balance: Economic Concentration and Local Government Performance in Indonesia and the Philippines

Author:: Christian von Luebke
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The relationship between economic concentration and governance remains controversial. While some studies find that high economic concentration strengthens collective action and reform cooperation, others stress dangers of rent-seeking and state capture. In this paper I argue that effects are neither strictly positive nor negative: they are best described as an inverted-u-shaped relationship, where better governance performance emerges with moderate economic concentration. Decentralization reforms in Indonesia and the Philippines Q unprecedented in scope and scale Q provide a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis. Subnational case studies and cross-sections, from both countries, indicate that moderately concentrated polities are accompanied by better service and lower corruption. The presence of Scontested oligarchiesT Q small circles of multi-sectoral interest groupsQ creates a situation where economic elites are strong enough to influence policymakers and, at the same time, diverse enough to keep each other in check. The results of this paper suggest that contested oligarchies compensate for weakly-developed societal and juridical forces and can become a stepping stone to good governance.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Israel, Asia, and Philippines

27. Soft budget constraints in China: Evidence from the Guangdong hospital industry

Author:: Karen Eggleston, Mingshan Lu, Congdong Li, Jian Wang, Zhe Yang, Jing Zhang, and Yu-Chu Shen
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Using data from 276 general acute hospitals in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong Province from 2002 and 2004, we construct a preliminary metric of budget constraint softness. We find that, controlling for hospital size, ownership, and other factors, a Chinese hospital's probability of receiving government financial support is inversely associated with the hospital's previous net revenue, an association consistent with soft budget constraints.
Topic:: Government, Health, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

28. Out-of-pocket household health expenditures and their use in National Health Accounts: Evidence from Pakistan

Author:: Christian Lorenz
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Out-of-pocket (OoP) household health expenditures are among the most difficult factors to measure in the context of National Health Accounts (NHA). Yet their measurement is important: OoP household expendi-tures are typically the first or second largest source of health care financing in developing countries. Their incorrect measurement can undermine the credibility of total health spending estimates and thus NHA statistics, which are an otherwise important resource for policy makers. In most countries, private expenditures account for the biggest margin of error in national health spending estimates and represent the most substantial barrier to reliable international comparisons. Differences in accounting methods explain much of the discrepancy across nations. To further the academic investigation of this important issue, this paper focuses on OoP household health expenditures in Pakistan's NHA and suggests steps toward estimating such expenditures more effectively.
Topic:: Health
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Asia

29. The Emerging Role of Private Health Care Provision in China

Author:: Cunrui Huang, Haocai Liang, Cordia Chu, Shannon Rutherford, and Qingshan Geng
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China continues to face great challenges in meeting the health needs of its large population. The challenges are not just lack of resources, but also how to use existing resources more efficiently, more effectively, and more equitably. Now a major unaddressed challenge facing China is how to reform an inefficient, poorly organized health care delivery system. The objective of this study is to analyze the role of private health care provision in China and discuss the implications of increasing private-sector development for improving health system performance.
Topic:: Government and Health
Political Geography:: China and Asia

30. Crisis and Consensus; America and ASEAN in a New Global Context

Author:: Donald K. Emmerson
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: No crisis is uniformly global. The suffering and the opportunity that a “global” crisis entails are always unevenly distributed across countries, and unevenly across the population inside any one country. That said, one can nevertheless argue that we—not the old royal “we” but, more presumptuously, the new global “we”—are in January 2009 experiencing the latest of four dramatic changes that major parts of the world have undergone over the last twenty years. In 1989, of course, the Berlin Wall was breached, ending the Cold War, followed by the implosion of Lenin's Soviet dystopia two years later. Nor did the 1989 massacre of proreform demonstrators in Tiananmen Square revive a command economy in China. Instead it kept the polity shut so that Deng's economy could continue to open.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Israel, Asia, and Berlin

31. Aging Risk and Health Care Cost in Korea

Author:: Byong Ho Tchoe and Sang-Ho Nam
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: It is generally perceived that health care cost is increasing because of population aging. In Korea, the number of people over 65 years of age was 3.1 percent of the population in 1970, 5.1 percent in 1990, 7.2 percent in 2000, and 9.1 percent in 2005. These figures show that the period of time in which an aging population increases by 2 percent is getting shorter; thus aging has been accelerating.
Topic:: Demographics and Health
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, and Korea

32. The healer or the druggist: Effects of two health care policies in Taiwan on elderly patients' choice between physician and pharmacist services

Author:: Kang-Hung Chang
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: When both physicians and pharmacists in Taiwan prescribed and dispensed drugs, many elderly people considered the two types of health care providers more or less synonymous (i.e., close substitutes). Two policies mandated in the 1990s changed this perception: National Health Insurance (NHI), which provides insurance coverage to all citizens, and a separation policy (SP) that forbids physicians from dispensing and pharmacists from prescribing drugs. The author finds that by providing an economic incentive to the previously uninsured elderly, NHI raised the probability that they would visit physicians, relative to their continuously insured counterparts. In particular, some previously uninsured elderly who once only visited pharmacists were more likely to also visit physicians after NHI was implemented. Following this, the SP made it more likely that all elderly patients would only visit physicians and buy drugs from on-site pharmacists hired by physicians—a result different than its policy goal.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Israel, Taiwan, and Asia

33. Allocation of control rights and cooperation efficiency in public-private partnerships: Theory and evidence from the Chinese pharmaceutical industry

Author:: Zhe Zhang, Ming Jia, and Difang Wan
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This article uses incomplete contract theory to study the allocation of control rights in public-private partnerships (PPPs) between pharmaceutical enterprises and nonprofit organizations; it also investigates how this allocation influences cooperation efficiency. We first develop a mathematic model for the allocation of control rights and its influence on cooperation efficiency, and then derive some basic hypotheses from the model. The results of an empirical test show that the allocation of control rights influences how enterprises invest in PPPs. A proper allocation provides incentives for firms to make fewer self-interested and more public-interested investments. Such an allocation also improves the cooperation efficiency of PPPs.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and Asia

34. Decision Factors Affecting Semiconductor Industry Location and the Regional Advantages of Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan

Author:: Kyoko Ii
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The objective of this research is to pinpoint the key determining factors that managers in multinational semiconductor firms use to decide upon a location to expand their business. Interviews were conducted with seventeen executives at eight companies, at both the U.S. and Japanese headquarters. Based on these interviews, the author analyzed the data to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture, in particular, as a semiconductor investment location. One important research finding is an assessment of these strengths and weaknesses, their importance to foreign executives, and how Kumamoto can capitalize on them in order to attract more business to the region.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Iran, and Asia

35. Incentives in China's Healthcare Delivery System

Author:: Karen Eggleston
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The economic approach of comparative and historical institutional analysis (Aoki 2001, Greif 2006) has virtually never been used in theoretical studies of healthcare incentives. This paper seeks to help fill this gap by exploring the explanatory power of such an approach for understanding incentives in China's healthcare delivery system. It focuses on positive analysis of why China's health system incentives evolved the way they did. The first section analyzes the institution of physician dispensing (MDD) and reforms toward separation of prescribing from dispensing (SPD), in historical and comparative perspective. It shows, for example, how MDD was a self-reinforcing institution; the longer a society remains under MDD, the higher the associated costs of supplier-induced demand can be before implementing SPD becomes the efficient self-enforcing social institution. Rapid technological change and adoption of universal coverage are likely to trigger SPD reforms. The second section seeks to explain the pattern and impact of price regulation and hospital payment reforms in contemporary China, which also reflect the legacy of MDD.
Topic:: Government, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and Asia

36. The Effect of Informal Caregiving on Labor Market Outcomes in South Korea

Author:: Young Kyung Do
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Embedded in traditional culture perpetuating family-centered elderly care, informal care is still viewed as a family or moral issue rather than a social and policy issue in South Korea. Using newly available micro data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, this study investigates the effect of informal caregiving on labor market outcomes in South Korea. By doing so, this study provides evidence to inform elderly long-term care policy in South Korea, and also fills a gap in the international literature by providing results from an Asian country. Empirical analyses address various methodological issues by investigating gender differences, by examining both extensive and intensive labor market adjustments with two definitions of labor force participation, by employing different functional forms of care intensity, and by accounting for the potential endogeneity of informal care as well as intergenerational co-residence. Robust findings suggest negative effects of informal caregiving on labor market outcomes among women, but not among men. Compared with otherwise similar non-caregivers, female intensive caregivers who provide at least more than 10 hours of care per week are at an increased risk of being out of the labor force by 15.2 percentage points. When examining the probability of employment in the formal sector only, the effect magnitude is smaller. Among employed women, more intensive caregivers receive lower hourly wages by 1.65K Korean Won than otherwise similar non-caregivers. Informal care is already an important economic issue in South Korea even though aging is still at an early stage.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, and Markets
Political Geography:: Israel, Asia, and South Korea

37. The Political Economy of Successful Reform: Asian Stratagems

Author:: Dennis Arroyo
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Major economic reforms are often politically difficult, causing pain to voters and provoking unrest. They may be opposed by politicians with short time horizons. They may collide with the established ideology and an entrenched ruling party. They may be resisted by bureaucrats and by vested interests. Obstacles to major economic reform can be daunting in democratic and autocratic polities alike.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand

38. Managing Pest Resistance in Fragmented Farms: An Analysis of the Risk of Bt Cotton in China and its Zero Refuge Strategy and Beyond

Author:: Fangbin Qiao, Jim Wilen, and Jikun Huang
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The goal of this study is to discuss why China and perhaps other developing countries may not need a refuge policy for Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We describe in detail the different elements that a nation—especially a developing one—should be considering when deciding if a refuge policy is needed. Drawing on a review of scientific data, economic analysis of other cases and a simulation exercise using a bio-economic model that we have produced to examine this question, we show that in the case of Bt cotton in China, the approach of not requiring special cotton refuges is defensible.
Topic:: Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

39. When Dragons and Kangaroos Trade: China's Rapid Economic Growth and Its Implications for China and Australia

Author:: Jikun Huang, Jun Yang, and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China's economy has experienced remarkable growth since economic reforms were initiated in the late 1970s and pushed forward by a number of complementary policies. Since the mid-1980s, rural township and village-owned enterprises (TVEs) development; measures to provide a better market environment through domestic market reform; fiscal and financial expansions; the devaluation of exchange rate; trade liberalisation; the expansion of special economic zones to attract foreign direct investment (FDI); the state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform; agricultural market liberalisation, and many other reforms have all contributed to China's economic growth. In response, the annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) was about nearly 10% in 1979–2004 (National Bureau of Statistics of China 2005).
Topic:: Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

40. Vote of Confidence, A? Voting Protocol and Participation in China's Village Elections

Author:: Xiaopeng Pang and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The goal of our paper is to provide an empirical basis for understanding progress (or stagnation) in the evolution of China's village committee elections. To meet this goal, we pursue three specific objectives. First, we seek to identify patterns (and trends) of voting behavior and develop ways to measure participation in the voting process. Second, we analyze who is voting and who is not (and document the process by which their votes are cast). Finally, we see to understand the correlation between propensity to vote and the quality of village elections.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

41. The Role of Agriculture in China's Development: Past Failures, Present Successes and Future Challenges

Author:: Jikun Huang, Keijiro Otsuka, and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The view toward agricultural and rural development in the modern world has changed dramatically in the past several decades. Traditionally, agriculture was thought of an inferior partner in development. Since the size of the sector falls during development, it was logically considered that it could be ignored. Why is that leaders would ever want to invest in a sector that shrinking? Some academics urged policy makers to treat agriculture like a black box from which resources could be costlessly extracted (Lewis, 1954). All investment was supposed to be targeted at the industry and the cities. As a low productivity sector, it did not deserve investment.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

42. Irrigation Water Pricing Policy in China

Author:: Jikun Huang, Qiuqiong Huang, Richard Howitt, and Jinxia Wang
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: As water becomes scarcer in northern China, designing policies that can induce water users to save water has become one of the most important tasks facing China's leader. Past water policies may not be a solution for the water scarcity problem in the long run. This paper looks at a new water policy: increasing water prices so as to provide water users with direct incentives to save water. Using a methodology that allows us to incorporate the resource constraints, we are able to recover the true price of water with a set of plot level data. Our results show that farmers are quite responsive if the correct price signal is used, unlike estimates of price elasticities that are based on traditional methods. Our estimation results show that water is severely under priced in our sample areas in China. As a result, water users are not likely to respond to increases in water prices. Thus as the first step to establishing an effective water pricing policy, policy makers must increase water price to the level of VMP so that water price reflects the true value of water, the correct price signal. Increases in water prices once they are set at the level of VMP, however, can lead to significant water savings. However, our analysis also shows that higher water prices also affect other aspects of the rural sector. Higher irrigation costs will lower the production of all crops, in general, and that of grain crops, in particular. Furthermore, when facing higher irrigation costs, households suffer income losses. Crop income distribution also worsens with increases in water prices.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

43. Water User Associations and the Evolution and Determinants of Management Reform: A Representative Look at Northern China

Author:: Jikun Huang, Qiuqiong Huang, Jinxia Wang, and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Increasing demand for China's limited water resources (across China, but mostly in northern China) from rapidly growing industry, urban populations and agriculture implies potentially dire consequences for the sustainability of water use and drastic changes in cultivation patterns (Zhang, 2001). Problems in the water sector also have significant implications for China's future trade position in key crops and may affect the income of the farming sector (Huang et al., 1999).
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

44. Why Did the Communist Party Reform in China, But Not in the Soviet Union? The Political Economy of Agricultural Transition

Author:: Johan Swinnen and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The dramatic transition from Communism to market economies across Asia and Europe started in the Chinese countryside in the 1970s. Since then more than a billion of people, many of them very poor, have been affected by radical reforms in agriculture. However, there are enormous differences in the reform strategies that countries have chosen. This paper presents a set of arguments to explain why countries have chosen different reform policies.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

45. Information, Incentives and Institutions: Experimenting with Private-Public Partnerships to Link the Poor with Modern Supply Chains

Author:: Jikun Huang, Johan Swinnen, Marcel Fafchamps, Tom Reardon, Bart Minten, and Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: To lift more than 10,000 farmers directly out of poverty by developing new Best-Practice Models for linking the poor to modern supply chains and after scaling up by our private and public partners to lift more than 1 million farmers out of poverty.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, China, India, Asia, Senegal, and Madagascar

46. Bound by a Hidden Agenda: The Birth and Consequences of the Bank of Japan's Quantitative Monetary Easing

Author:: Tetsufumi Arita
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: For the past five years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has employed an unconventional monetary easing policy, called quantitative monetary easing. Under a zero interest rate regime, the BOJ shifted its tool for monetary easing from interest rates to quantity of money, thus providing the money market with much more money than it needs. It is difficult to find evidence that this monetary easing has contributed to the current economic recovery. What we can show is that this quantitative easing diluted the functions of interest rates in the money market, with the following consequences: quantitative easing hid the risks of the huge amount of fiscal debt and supported troubled commercial banks. Hence it helped to prevent both fiscal and financial crisis.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

47. Investing in China's Rural Infrastructure and Environment

Author:: Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The purpose of this executive summary is to provide a concise statement about what we have learned about investment into China's rural environment. The overall purpose is to help the Bank understand what is happening in rural China, what farmer's are thinking about the current trends and what they are hoping will happen in the future (if they had a say). One of the most important questions is answer what should the role of the state be.
Topic:: Development, Environment, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

48. Southeast Asian-Pacific Frameworks: What Do They Frame and What Work Do They Do?

Author:: Donald Emmerson
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Although these pages feature Southeast Asia, our topic is spatially far-flung. Pictured as sets of participating countries highlighted on a map of the world, regional and interregional frameworks that include some or all of Southeast Asia run a vast and complex gamut of partly concentric and partly overlapping yet distinctive and sometimes changing memberships or attendances. MALSINDO spans three contiguous Southeast Asian states. ASEAN encompasses all ten. ASEM is inter-regional. FPDA offers a fourth pattern, linking as it does two adjacent Southeast Asian countries with three distant partners—two in the far-southern Pacific, one in far-western Europe. The hub-and-spoke dialogue arrangements known collectively as ASEAN Plus One illustrate a fifth schema.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

49. Food Security in North Korea: Designing Realistic Possibilities

Author:: Randall Ireson
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Between about 1990 and 1996, North Korea experienced what can only be described as a catastrophic economic collapse, which included a 70 percent reduction in food production compared to the late 1980s. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) initially insisted that the agriculture collapse was a consequence of natural disasters. However, it is clear that the seeds of this catastrophe had been planted decades earlier, the result of ill-advised and ultimately unsustainable national agricultural policies. Yet difficult as the situation is, it is not without options for significant improvement. This paper outlines a strategy for agricultural revitalization in North Korea, which could, in the foreseeable future, enable the DPRK to produce—domestically and in a sustainable manner—nearly all the food needed to supply a basic balanced diet for its population. Whether this strategy can be implemented, or indeed whether it is the best strategy for the DPRK in the longer term, depends on many factors outside the farm sector, including world and regional international political issues, and DPRK policy choices regarding participation in world trade and commerce.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

50. Origins and Growth of the Software Industry in India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The paper explains the evolution of India's software industry. Domestic entrepreneurship emerges as the key factor for origination, survival and innovation in a hostile industrial policy environment. The maturing of the industry required a shift to a supportive government policy; maturation was also critically enabled by the modularization of the programming function through new technologies. These changes favored domestic firms that provided programming services. Later policy and technological changes induced transnational entry and led to higher value-added output. The paper shows that technologically sophisticated industries can develop even when many conditions typically present elsewhere are missing. We provide conditions under which this may happen and show their effect on subsequent developments.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: India and Asia

51. Democracy, History, and Migrant Labor in South Korea

Author:: Hyun Park
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper concerns the paradox of democratization in South Korea, whose progression has been entwined with neoliberal capitalism beginning in the 1990s. There have been critical moments of democratization since the military rulers gave in to popular pressure for democratization. These moments range from the recommencement of the popular electoral system in the Presidential election in 1987 to the transfer of the state power to civilian leaders, and the participation of former dissidents in the parliament and the administration. A particular form of democratization addressed in this paper is not electoral state politics but the broad-reaching initiatives to transform the relationship between the state and society. Specifically, I examine the initiative to rewrite colonial and cold-war history. This particular initiative is part of an effort to correct a longstanding tendency of previous military regimes that suppressed the resolution of colonial legacies and framed Korean national history within an ideological confrontation of capitalist South Korea and communist North Korea.
Topic:: International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

52. What Do the Blind-sided See? Reapproaching Regionalism in Southeast Asia

Author:: Donald K. Emmerson
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The late Michael Leifer's association with an insecurity-focused realist approach to international affairs and his work on Southeast Asian regionalism inspire this question: How have the Asian financial crisis and the 'war on terror' affected the plausibility of insecurity-concerned realism compared with other ways of approaching regionalism in Southeast Asia?
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

53. Prospects Brighten for Long-term Peace in South Asia

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 11-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Ever since 1998, the year of India and Pakistan's nuclear tests, many commentators have argued that, in the absence of U.S. intervention, the two nations are headed for armed conflict that will likely end in nuclear war. The logic underlying this view is twofold. First, that religious radicalism—defined as the participation in political and/or military activities by groups in the name of religion—has become sufficiently powerful in Pakistan to make ongoing support for the Kashmir insurgency inevitable. Second is that India's concurrent growth of nationalism and religious radicalism, as well as a rise in economic power, will make the state less willing to tolerate Pakistan's support for insurgency in Kashmir. Against this seemingly inevitable clash, Pakistani President Musharraf is viewed as a lonely holdout against the forces of religious radicalism in Pakistan. U.S. support is therefore argued to be critical for sustaining Musharraf, whether through political support for Pakistan's policies in Kashmir, or economic support. This paper reaches a different conclusion: that peace is about to “break out” between India and Pakistan. Our conclusion is based on the following analysis. First, Islamic radicalism in Pakistan relies (and has always relied) on the army to survive, as it lacks sufficient popularity to influence state policy through political parties or popular agitation. Second, the army has previously supported Islamic radicalism tactically, but not ideologically, providing such support only when it has perceived the state to be in crisis. Contrary to a common view, the elections of 2002 were no different in this respect. Third, Hindu radicalism in India, though gaining in both popular and political support, is insufficiently popular to support irrational aggression against Pakistan. At the same time, India's improved economic prospects have influenced its rulers to favor accommodation with Pakistan. Third, the outcomes of recent elections in India and Pakistan have shifted the Pakistani army's strategic priorities toward negotiating a civilian-military balance, and away from destabilizing civilian politics through “crisis-mode” tactics that have included support for Islamic radicalism.
Topic:: Nationalism, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Asia, and Kashmir

54. Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Will the next great wave of globalization come in services? Increasingly, components of back-office services, such as payroll and order fulfillment, and some front-office services, such as customer care, are being relocated from the United States and other developed countries to English-speaking, developing nations—especially India, but also other nations, such as the Philippines. Though moving service activities offshore is not entirely new, the pace has quickened of late. The acceleration of this business process offshoring (BPO) is intertwined, though not synonymous, with another phenomenon, namely an increasing willingness by firms to outsource what formerly were considered core activities. It is significant that a substantial number of service activities might move offshore, because it was once thought that service jobs were the future growth area for developed country economies. Manufacturing, by contrast, would relocate to lower labor cost regions offshore. Notably, the services commonly known as “business processes” (BPs) are among the fastest growing job categories in the United States (Goodman and Steadman 2002). Should these jobs begin to move offshore, a new tendency may be under way in the global economy that will be as or more important than the relocation of manufacturing offshore, and might necessitate a rethinking of government policies across a wide spectrum.
Topic:: International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:: United States, India, Asia, and Philippines

55. Emerging Third Stage Peri-Urbanization: Functional Specialization in the Hangzhou Peri-Urban Region

Author:: Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, and Larisa Muller
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Hangzhou Municipality is the provincial capital of Zhejiang, on China's east coast. It forms part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Hangzhou was “opened up” in the mid-1980s, following Deng Xiaoping's visit to the South, resulting in an almost immediate flood of foreign and domestic investment in manufacturing. This initial investment was significantly in the peri-urban areas, i.e., outside the built-up area. The authors have been following development in the Hangzhou extended urban region, with emphasis on peri-urbanization processes, since 2000. A previous APARC discussion paper describes findings of preliminary field research on the Hangzhou–Ningbo Corridor, conducted in August 2000 and March 2001. The present paper zooms in on two peri-urban clusters in the Hangzhou extended urban region, and assesses their development over time. The goal of the research is to better understand how a peri-urban region changes—particularly in terms of firm evolution, labor characteristics, and spatial dynamics—as it becomes more economically and demographically mature. This paper also examines such changes in the context of the increasing cost structures and emerging competitors, primarily from other areas in China, that the Hangzhou peri-urban region now faces.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Maryland

56. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Dynamics in Chengdu, 1975–2002

Author:: Douglas Webster, Jianming Cai, Binyi Luo, Annemarie Schneider, and Karen C. Seto
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The “Go West” policy was introduced in 1999.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Chongqing, and Chengdu

57. Tax Reforms for Enhancing the Stable Development of the Chinese Financial System

Author:: Lawrence J. Lau and Guijuan Wang
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The Chinese economy has had the highest rate of growth in the world in the past two decades. However, despite its rapid growth and the significant improvements in its financial system, serious risks and problems still exist in both the commercial banking sector and the stock market, that may potentially threaten the stable development and growth of the entire economy. In this paper, these risks and problems in the stock market and the commercial banking sector are identified. Possible solutions are then discussed. Finally, tax reforms are proposed that have the effects of (1) eliminating the double taxation on cash dividends from corporate profits; (2) encouraging the substitution of new equity for existing debt by corporations, which can lower the P/E ratios without lowering the stock prices and improve quality of commercial bank assets by reducing the probability of new nonperforming loans; and (3) attracting new and longer-term investors, both domestic and foreign, to the Chinese stock market. It is also shown that the proposed tax reforms will not result in a significant reduction in total fiscal revenue.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58. The Politics of China's Shareholding System

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper considers two questions. First, why did the Chinese government establish stock markets? Second, how have political interests shaped the key features of these markets? Based on both interviews and statistical analysis, the paper argues that China's top Party-State leaders attempted to create stock market institutions that allow the state to maintain control over listed companies, and over “the market” as a whole.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

59. Local Governments and the Chinese Stock Market

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper examines a key aspect of the politics of stock markets in China—the distinct differences in interests between central government leaders and local governments. Central government leaders have a powerful incentive to promote macroeconomic stability and good performance of the stock market. Local leaders, for their part, are less concerned with the overall performance of the stock market than with gaining access to the stock market for companies under their own jurisdiction. The paper demonstrates that company listing brings tangible economic benefits to municipalities. Listed companies are associated with higher levels of gross domestic product (GDP), budgetary revenue, and industrial and commercial tax revenue. Therefore, it is not surprising that local officials put substantial effort into lobbying for the right to list additional companies on the national stock exchanges.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

60. Addressing the North Korea Nuclear Challenge

Author:: Michael H. Armacost, Daniel I. Okimoto, and Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation—though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993–1994—is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Palestine

61. Sociological Dimensions of China's Economic Transition: Organization, Stratification, and Social Mobility

Author:: Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Despite skepticism about official economic statistics, there is little doubt that China since 1978 has undergone an economic transformation of historic proportions. This outcome stands in stark opposition to arguments that were once widely accepted in several scholarly communities, and which are still highly influential even today. In the early 1980s there was wide agreement that “partial” reform, under a single party dictatorship that sought indefinitely to preserve public ownership, was a recipe for failure. China specialists, students of comparative economic systems, and economists who advised governments and international agencies about postcommunist restructuring in Eurasia were initially in broad agreement on this point.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

62. International Organizations and Democratization: Testing the Effect of GATT/WTO Membership

Author:: Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Does the World Trade Organization promote democracy? A large part of the heated and protracted debate over China's application for WTO membership revolved around this question. Prior to China's WTO accession in December 2001, this debate had dragged on for nearly fifteen years. While one side argued that WTO membership would promote democratization in China, others argued that the wealth generated through economic integration would provide the resources to maintain authoritarian rule. Only time will tell whether WTO accession will contribute to pressures for democratization in China. In the meantime, however, this paper examines the empirical basis for these competing claims about the effects of GATT/WTO memberships on domestic political systems. Based on statistical analysis of a global data set, this paper concludes that members of the international trade regime are more likely than nonmembers to be democracies. However, there is little evidence that WTO membership in itself can promote democratic transition. Instead, it appears to be the case that democratic countries are more likely to seek to join the WTO.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China and Asia

63. Politics and Property in Transitional Economies: A Theory of Elite Opportunity

Author:: Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Command economies gave communist-era elites administrative control and material privilege but severely restricted money income and private wealth. Markets and privatization inject new value into public assets and create unprecedented opportunities for elite insiders to extract incomes or assume ownership. These opportunities vary with the extensiveness of regime change and the barriers to asset appropriation. Within these limits, they further vary with the concentration and form of economic assets and structural changes induced by reform. Elite advantages are smallest where regime change is extensive and barriers to asset appropriation are high, and in small-scale economies that grow rapidly. In China, there has been no regime change and privatization has been delayed and slow. In the rural economy, elites keep their posts as a source of economic advantage, while low entry barriers to household enterprise and rapid growth have created new entrepreneurial elites. After two decades, rural officials nonetheless enjoy large net income advantages that grow along with the expansion of labor markets and private entrepreneurship. These are not generic outcomes of market reform, but the product of market reform in distinctive political and structural conditions.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

64. The Paradox of Korean Globalization

Author:: Gi-Wook Shin
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Some months ago a Stanford freshman came to ask for help on his project on Korea. At the time, I thought he was a Korean American, given that his command of both English and Korean is excellent. To my surprise, I learned that he was educated until high school in Korea and had never been to the United States before coming to Stanford. He surprised me further when he told me about his high school, the Korean Minjok Leadership Academy (KMLA). Located in a remote area of Kwangwon province—arguably the more underdeveloped region in South Korea—KMLA aspires to be Korea's version of Eton. The school's goal is to produce Korea's future leaders, and to instill in them a strong national identity (see its website at http://www.minjok.hs.kr). Fascinated by what he told me, I made a visit to his high school in fall 2002.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and Nationalism
Political Geography:: United States, America, Asia, and Korea

65. Political Office, Kinship, and Household Wealth in Rural China

Author:: Andrew G. Walder and Litao Zhao
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: For more than two decades after the demise of Maoist collectivism, a resurgent market economy has deeply transformed the social structure of rural China. By the mid-1980s, peasant households had already returned to historical marketing patterns of agricultural produce and other sidelines and services. By the turn of the century, almost 140 million individuals, or 30 percent of the rural labor force, earned regular incomes from wage labor outside agriculture. Twenty million rural households had registered individual family enterprises, and two million of them had already grown into substantial private firms. A massive rural industrial sector grew up under public ownership in the 1980s, employing more than 80 million at its height. It was then extensively privatized in the 1990s, and is now less than half its former size. While these developments have been widely noted in studies of rural industrialization and income inequality, it is still far from clear how they have altered the structure and wealth of village political and economic elites.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

66. From Keiretsu to Startups: Japan's Push for High Tech Entrepreneurship

Author:: Henry Rowen and A. Maria Toyoda
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: How much does it matter that Japan creates relatively few new high technology companies? Many observers estimate, or at least assume, that entrepreneurial dynamism and its associated innovations promote economic growth and in the long run are necessary for it. In recent years there has been much attention devoted to fostering such new firms in many countries, including Japan, with much of this interest derived from the example of Silicon Valley. Before the 1990s, after several decades of excellent performance by the Japanese industry, any observer noting that it had few new high tech companies would probably have met with indifference. Success spoke for itself. Now, after an economic plateau lasting over a decade, questions about the late and relatively small-scale emergence of high tech startups have become increasingly salient.
Topic:: Industrial Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

67. The Growth of Broadband Internet Connections in South Korea: Contributing Factors

Author:: Kyounglim Yun, Heejin Lee, and So-Hye Lim
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In recent years, Korea has seen a remarkable diffusion in broadband Internet connections. This paper explores the actions and factors contributing to this diffusion from three viewpoints: public sector, private sector, and social. We suggest that the matching of demand and supply is the most important factor in the fast diffusion of broadband in Korea. In particular, fierce infrastructure competition has led to quality services at a low fixed price. We also consider two challenges that lie ahead: take-up of retail e-commerce applications, and the need to bridge the digital divide.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Korea

68. Inaugural Oksenberg Lecture: The United States and China: A President's Perspective. An address by Jimmy Carter

Author:: Jimmy Carter
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The Oksenberg Lectures honor the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001), Senior Fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center, professor of political science, and a foremost authority on China.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

69. Privatization and Elite Mobility: Rural China, 1979-1996

Author:: Andrew G. Walder
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The ideal types that motivate research on transitional economies have led to a neglect of the varied mechanisms that generate social change. One example is the implicit treatment of privatization as a single process whose initial impact will become more pronounced through time. Privatization in fact occurs via distinct mechanisms that have different consequences across types of assets and through time, as shown in an analysis of career trajectories over two decades in rural China. During the first decade, when privatization proceeded via the rapid expansion of household enterprise, ordinary individuals with nonagricultural work experience were the most likely to become private entrepreneurs. Village officials, their relatives, and public enterprise managers did not enter the private sector at rates higher than others. However, during the second decade the privatization of public enterprises began to transfer collective assets to individual ownership. During this period, public enterprise managers and the relatives of cadres emerged as the most likely to become private entrepreneurs. Private entrepreneurs, however, have yet to move into cadre posts, and cadres have yet to move into private entrepreneurship, at rates higher than others. Administrative elites have therefore proven resilient in the face of private-sector expansion, and the benefits of privatization have gradually shifted in their favor.
Topic:: Communism and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

70. Foreign Penetration of Japan's Investment-Banking Market: Will Japan Experience the "Wimbledon Effect"?

Author:: Nicole Pole
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Foreign banks have long faced difficulties in attempting to enter certain Japanese financial markets. This is due partly to regulatory practices and partly to specific Japanese socioeconomic conditions, for instance the system of relationship banking. While retail banking is still a sector in which almost no foreigners have been able to succeed, some foreign financial institutions have been able to gain market share in investment and wholesale banking.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

71. Chinese and Indian Engineers and their Networks in Silicon Valley

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In recent years, Asian immigrants have played an important role in Silicon Valley's growth, as suppliers of both engineering and entrepreneurial talent. Given their relatively large numbers, the Indian and Chinese communities' contributions have been particularly noted. The Indians' presence became more marked toward the last few years of the century, bolstered by arrivals working on the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem. The Chinese, by contrast, had older roots set down amid long-standing political, economic, and educational links with Taiwan. Both communities have formed extensive ethnic professional networks, with large memberships and well-attended, regular "networking" events, such as monthly meetings and special interest group sessions. The popularity of these events suggests that members find them valuable. While some of the value is probably noneconomic, the avowedly economic mission (see below) and long-term popularity of these gatherings means that most members primarily derive economic benefits. These networks and their members are the subject of this paper. The author acknowledges the collaboration of Professor AnnaLee Saxenian of the University of California, Berkeley, in the design of and data collection for the survey which forms part of this paper. The survey was partially funded by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, India, Taiwan, Asia, California, and Berkeley

72. Cosmopolitan Cities and Nation States: Open Economics,Urban Dynamics, and Government in East Asia

Author:: Thomas P. Rohlen
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This essay is about the pivotal role cities play in the current pattern of social, cultural, and political change in East Asia. Its starting premise is that the postwar era of nation state building and state-led change is ending and a different era—one that centers on global capitalism and new technological capacities—has been steadily emerging in the region over the last several decades. At the vortex of these new forces we find big, successful cities. In such cities, the forces of capitalism, cultural cosmopolitanism, and new technologies combine critically in a turbulent and heady new mix. As a result, while the effectiveness of state initiatives decreases, and government is under pressure to reform, privatize, and decentralize, the dynamic (and typically coastal) cities of East Asia are the center of powerful economic and cultural forces for change, and the source of alternative political agendas. Simultaneously, due to their rapid expansion, these cities have also become the locus of giant new problems for public management.
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

73. Foreign Direct Investment in New Electricity Generating Capacity in Developing Asia: Stakeholders, Risks, and the Search for a New Paradigm

Author:: Robert Thomas Crow
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The rate of investment sufficient to provide developing Asia with a reasonably adequate supply of electricity is immense, ranging from a World Bank estimate of 2000 megawatts (MW) each month (which translates into an annual investment of about $35 billion per year) to even higher estimates. All of the larger countries of developing Asia have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) to provide a significant amount of the needed capital. In 1996, financial closings for new power projects in developing Asia reached $13.7 billion, or almost 40 percent of the lower range of the estimated requirement. Although data on the foreign share of the monetary value of financial closings is not available, it is likely to be over 80 percent. Thus, the foreign share of total direct investment in power projects in developing Asia appeared to have been around 30 percent before the East Asian currency crisis.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: East Asia and Asia

74. Turning Points in the Korean Space-Economy: From the Developmental State to Intercity Competition, 1953-2000

Author:: Mike Douglass
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Territorial development processes and patterns in Korea from the 1950s have encountered four turning points. The first involved the reconstitution of the Korean nation state, which, following radical land reform, implicitly focused on the expansion of the Seoul Capital Region. The second came with the launching of strategies for export-oriented urbanindustrial growth in the early 1960s, which led to the development, in the 1970s, of an urban-industrial corridor moving from the rapidly expanding metropolis of Seoul to the southeast coast, centered on Pusan and heavy industrial complexes. The third turning point was brought about by rising wages and labor costs; the ascending value of the Korean currency; and the overseas relocation of labor-intensive industries, which saw a repolarization of growth in Seoul and a deindustrialization of other metropolitan economies. While some regions outside of Seoul began to register high rates of economic growth around automotive and electronics industries in the early 1990s, this pattern was abruptly challenged at the fourth turning point, the 1997 financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia. Recovery from the crisis is being pursued under a fundamentally new political and economic strategy of decentralized policymaking. The major territorial development question facing Korea at this turning point is whether localities can create capacities to rebuild and sustain their economies through direct engagement in a turbulent world economy.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, Korea, and Southeast Asia

75. Political Change in Taiwan: Implications for American Policy An address by RICHARD BUSH and Roundtable Discussion on Taiwan's Historic 2000 Elections

Author:: Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Richard Bush is chairman of the board and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), a private organization that conducts unofficial relations with the island of Taiwan on behalf of the United States government. Established in April 1979, AIT has a small headquarters in Washington, D.C., and offices in Taipei and Kaohsiung. Dr. Bush was appointed to the AIT Board by Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on September 2, 1997, and was selected as chairman and managing director on the same day.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, and Asia

76. Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta: "One Country, Two Systems" in the Emerging Metropolitan Context

Author:: Thomas P. Rohlen
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Now, more than at any point since 1949, Hong Kong's economic future is tied to that of China. This commonplace observation must be coupled with the less obvious, but equally fundamental point that Hong Kong's future with China is based largely on activities that arise in or pass through the Pearl River Delta. This region, however, is cut in half by a sovereign border and governed by a patchwork of political authorities. The Delta as a whole is rich with opportunities, but it is increasingly apparent that these can be realized only if integration moves forward, both in a metropolitan and regional sense. This prospect is currently marked by serious uncertainties.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Hong Kong

77. Relating the U.S.-Korea and U.S.-Japan Alliances to Emerging Asia Pacific Multilateral Processes: An ASEAN Perspective

Author:: Chin Kin Wah and Pang Eng Fong
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: American military power underpinned the security structure of the Asia Pacific region during the Cold War. Post-Cold War, its role is still vital to peace and stability in the region. The most overt manifestations of American military might are the Japan–America Security Alliance (JASA) and the Korea–America Security Alliance (KASA). These bilateral alliances, together with a modified Australia–New Zealand–United States (ANZUS) treaty relationship, point to the diversity of security interests and perspectives in the region. Even during the height of the Cold War, the region never quite presented the kind of coherence that would have facilitated the creation of a truly multilateral defense framework of the sort exemplified by NATO. In Southeast Asia, the lack of strategic coherence resulted in a patchwork of defense arrangements between local and extraregional states. Dominated by the United States, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was only nominally regional.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Asia, Korea, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

78. The United States and the Republic of China, 1949-1978: Suspicious Allies

Author:: Steven M. Goldstein
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper discusses the relationship between the United States and the Republic of China (ROC) from 1949 to 1979. This was an association that began and ended with an American determination to distance itself from the government on Taiwan, in the interests of improved relations with the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. In the intervening years, the United States and the ROC were aligned in a relationship—formalized by a mutual defense treaty from 1955 to 1979—which weathered two (almost three) military confrontations with the PRC.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Asia

79. The Domestic Context of the Alliances: The Politics of Tokyo

Author:: Akihiko Tanaka
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: It is now almost a cliché to say that domestic politics and foreign policy are closely connected. Yet however trite this expression, nonetheless it is true. Japan's international behavior and particularly its security policy cannot be fully understood without analyzing its domestic politics. In post–World War II Japan, security policy has been the dominant theme of domestic politics and source of ideological divide.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Tokyo

80. Japanese Entrepreneurship: Can the Silicon Valley Model Be Applied to Japan?

Author:: Katsuhiro Nakagawa
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Since 1992, the Japanese economy has been utterly stagnant, with signs of weak performance at every turn. Since 1997, Japan's economy has experienced negative growth, a situation unprecedented in the postwar era. Most large Japanese corporations have engaged in extensive restructuring during this period, which has in turn contributed to 4.8 percent unemployment—higher than rates in the United States. Further, in 1998, the closure rate of small companies (3.8 percent) exceeded the start-up rate of new business ventures (3.7 percent).
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Asia

81. Accessing Venture Capital in India

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In the 1970s, IT exports from India began with “body-shopping,” also known as contract programming. In such contracts, the amount of code was specified in the contract and there was relatively little risk. Until 1991, this was the main form of IT exports, and it was per- formed exclusively by Indian firms. Foreign firms were deliberately excluded as a matter of government policy. It was a difficult business environment. Indian firms that were exporting bodies, as well as firms that operated only in the domestic market, found themselves operat- ing in a closed economy, featuring high tariffs on hardware imports and non-tariff barriers on software imports. Quite by accident, this situation led to a growth of skills that would be of great value to India a few years later. India's UNIX talents, now globally in demand due to the growth of the Internet, developed because the country's closed economy forced Indian computer makers to develop their own hardware and software design skills. Sridhar Mitta noted that, in 1983, the United States used an Intel 386 microprocessor as the base for a simple personal computer, whereas India employed the same microprocessor with the UNIX operating system to power mainframes that controlled large enterprises. India's closed environment also spurred the country's IT industry to develop advanced skills in system design, architecture, protocol stacks, compilers, device drivers, and boards.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, India, and Asia

82. Assessing U.S. Bilateral Security Alliances in the Asia Pacific's "Southern Rim": Why the San Francisco System Endures

Author:: William T. Tow
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: At the turn of the century, the United States' postwar alliance network remains a key component of its international security policy. That policy is fundamentally based on maintaining military superiority over current and potential rivals in the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Eurasia, Asia, and San Francisco

83. Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: At the height of the Cold War, the dominant Western theories of alliance building in interstate relations argued that alliances tend to be motivated more by an external need to confront a clearly defined common adversary than by the domestic attributes of alliance partners. The newly reinvigorated U.S.-Japan alliance, however, together with the newly expanded NATO, seems to depart from the conventional pattern by emphasizing shared democratic values and by maintaining a high degree of ambiguity regarding the goals and targets of the alliance. Although these new features of American-led military alliances provide an anchor in an other- wise highly fluid situation in the post–Cold War world, many Chinese foreign-and defense-policy analysts believe that U.S. alliances with Asian countries, particularly with Japan, pose a serious, long-term challenge, if not a threat, to China's national security, national unification, and modernization. The ambiguity of the revised U.S.-Japan security alliance means that it is at best searching for targets and at worst aiming at China.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

84. Crisis and Aftermath: The Prospects for Institutional Change in Japan

Author:: Rafiq Dossani
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Impelled in large part by the nearly decade-long stagnation of the Japanese economy, institutions in Japan are undergoing fundamental changes. When Professors Masahiko Aoki, of the Stanford University Department of Economics, and Henry Rowen, director of the Asia/Pacific Research Center, were talking about these changes, they realized that an international conference on the subject would be useful and informative. With funding from the Asia/ Pacific Research Center and the Institute for International Studies, a distinguished group of speakers, commentators, and participants was brought together for a one-day conference to look at institutional changes in three distinct sectors of Japanese society: the political system, the bureaucracy, and corporations.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Asia

85. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective

Author:: Douglas Paal
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia

86. When Realism and Liberalism Coincide: Russian Views of U.S. Alliances in Asia

Author:: Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexei V. Zagorsky
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Contemporary discussions of virtually any aspect of Russian foreign and security policy must take as their point of departure the extraordinarily weakened condition of the Russian Federation. There is no comparable case of such a rapid and dramatic decline in the status of a great power during peacetime in modern history. The Russian economy has been in a virtual free fall for most of the 1990s. The World Bank estimated the Russian GNP in 1997, using fixed exchange rates not adjusted for purchasing power parity, at $403.5 billion, making Russia the twelfth-largest economy in the world, just ahead of the Netherlands and just behind South Korea. Russian per capita GNP of $2,740 ranked fifty-first in the world and was in the category of “low middle” income countries. In 1997 the Russian GNP was about 5 percent of that of the United States, 8 percent adjusted for purchasing power parity. The figures for 1998 will be even starker given the devaluation of the ruble to approximately 30 percent of its 1997 value and continuing overall economic decline. A back-of-the-envelope calculation would have Russian GNP at the end of 1998 at no more than $120 billion and per capita GNP at less than $1,000.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Asia, South Korea, and Netherlands

87. Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View

Author:: Takashi Inoguchi
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, East Asia, and Asia

88. Changing Relations between Party, Military, and Government in North Korea and Their Impact on Policy Direction

Author:: Jinwook Choi
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: North Korea has recently exhibited some noteworthy changes. In September 1998 it amended its constitution to change the power structure and introduced a number of progressive clauses. It also began to use the slogan “A Strong and Prosperous Nation,” which emphasizes economic prosperity as well as political, ideological, and military strength.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, and Latin America

89. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia

Author:: Chu Shulong
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

90. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances

Author:: Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

91. Seoul Domestic Policy and the Korean-American Alliance

Author:: B.C. Koh
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: While domestic politics helps to shape foreign policy, the two do not necessarily covary. That is to say, fundamental change in the former may not always trigger corresponding change in the latter. This is especially true of an alliance relationship, for a shared perception of an external threat that helps to sustain such a relationship is frequently unaffected by domestic political change.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, America, Asia, and Korea

92. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective

Author:: Michael J. Green
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

93. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices

Author:: Jae Ho Chung
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

94. Asian Alliances and American Politics

Author:: Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The domestic politics of our Asian alliances is like the story of the dog that didn't bark. Though our defense ties with Japan and Korea were forged in the Cold War, nearly ten years after the Berlin Wall came down, few voices are being raised to amend, let alone terminate, either the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with Japan or the U.S.-Korea Mutual Defense Treaty. Although large numbers of U.S. troops remain in both countries, congressional criticisms of allied “free riding” are rarely heard. Our alliances with Japan and Korea provoke little discernible opposition from the Congress, the press, or the general public. Polling data suggests that public support for the alliances and for forward deployments in both countries remains high. And no prominent leaders of the Congress are threatening to link security concerns to outstanding economic issues with the Japanese or South Koreans—a tactic frequently utilized a decade ago.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Asia, and Korea

95. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

Author:: Andrew Scobell
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS