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21. Kosovo: What Can Go Wrong?

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
At the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war almost eight years ago, the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo was removed from Serbia's governance and placed temporarily under a United Nations protectorate, administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Last summer, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari was tasked by the Security Council with resolving the question of Kosovo's future status, with support from U.S. and European Union envoys (Frank Wisner and Stefan Lehne respectively). Ahtisaari's effort is now drawing to a close. He has delivered to both Pristina and Belgrade a plan that explicitly allows a great deal of protection for Serbs and their religious monuments in Kosovo but implicitly ends Belgrade's sovereignty. His plan opens the prospect of a sovereign and independent Kosovo under continuing international supervision. It is anticipated that Ahtisaari will take his plan, with some revisions, to the UN Security Council this month. This USIPeace Briefing discusses potential drivers of conflict in Kosovo during the status decision and in the period thereafter. These drivers of conflict arise from the international community, the Kosovo Albanians, Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs. They have the potential not only to make Kosovo dysfunctional but also to destabilize the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

22. New Strategies for Darfur

Author:
David Smock
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On April 4, the U.S. Institute of Peace convened its Sudan Peace Forum to discuss new strategies for dealing with the ongoing crisis in Darfur. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion, which was conducted on a not-for-attribution basis. It was written by David Smock, the vice president of USIP's Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution. It does not represent the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

23. Kosovo: Ethnic Nationalism at Its Territorial Worst

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The international community\'s military and financial investments in the Balkans over the past fifteen years have led to substantial improvements in most of the territories of the former Yugoslavia. This progress will be put at risk if talks on Kosovo\'s status lead to de facto ethnoterritorial separation, with Serbs governed on their own territory by Belgrade without reference to Pristina. Partition, or something approaching it, could trigger another wave of violence, mass displacement of civilians, and instability in multiethnic states of the region. The international community has failed so far to reintegrate Serbs into Kosovo. Freedom of movement is insufficient, Serbs returning to their homes in Albanian-majority areas are minimal, Kosovo\'s governing institutions lack Serb representation, and Belgrade has tightened its grip on Serbs living in the north and in enclaves elsewhere. Serbia aims to govern the Serbs of Kosovo directly from Belgrade on clearly defined territory and without reference to Pristina. This is precisely the kind of ethnoterritorial separation that will cause trouble throughout the region. The Kosovo Albanian leadership has failed to improve the living conditions of Serbs living in Albanian-majority areas. Hardliners among Kosovo Albanians would also like to see ethnoterritorial separation, as it would offer them a chance to expel the remaining Kosovo Serbs south of the Ibar River and rid themselves of a “Trojan horse.” If the status talks lead to ethnoterritorial separation in Kosovo, serious instability could affect southern Serbia (Presevo Valley), western Macedonia, and Bosnia.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

24. Resolving the Boundary Dispute in Sudan's Abyei Region

Author:
Dorina Bekoe, Kelly Campbell, and Nicholas Howenstein
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Arab Misseriya and the Ngok Dinka ethnic groups have long held competing claims for access to the cattle grazing pastures and resources of the oil-rich Abyei region in Sudan. Unable to resolve the dispute during negotiations on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the government and southern representatives agreed to the establishment of the Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) and tasked it with evaluating historical and conflicting claims to the land and demarcating a border between the groups. The final report of the ABC was completed in July 2005, but the Government of Sudan has yet to publicly release the document or accept its findings, as stipulated in the CPA. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), in contrast, supports the release of the ABC's findings. While the decision by the Government of Sudan to remain silent on the ABC report is unlikely to derail the peace process, releasing the findings of the ABC, one of the first steps in the CPA's implementation process, is an important component of the government's credibility to abide by its commitments in the peace agreement.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan