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2. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement
- Author:
- Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
3. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections
- Author:
- Michael Semple
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
4. Mutual Accountability: Lessons and Prospects for Afghanistan Post-Tokyo
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- At the Tokyo conference on July 8, donors committed to provide massive civilian aid to Afghanistan and improve aid effectiveness, while the Afghan government committed to a number of governance and political benchmarks. The outcome at Tokyo exceeded expectations, but a review of Afghan and international experience suggests that implementing the Tokyo mutual accountability framework will be a major challenge. The multiplicity of donors could weaken coherence around targets and enforcing benchmarks, and undermine the accountability of the international community for overall funding levels. Uncertain political and security prospects raise doubts about the government's ability to meet its commitments, and political will for needed reforms understandably may decline as security transition proceeds and the next election cycle approaches. It is doubtful whether major political issues can be handled through an articulated mutual accountability framework with benchmarks and associated financial incentives. The civilian aid figure agreed upon at Tokyo ($16 billion over four years) is ambitious and exceeded expectations; if the international community falls short, this could be used to justify the Afghan government failing to achieve its benchmarks. Finally, given past experience there are doubts about how well the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) process (mandated to oversee implementation), and the series of further high-level meetings agreed at Tokyo, will work.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Governance, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
5. Lessons from Afghanistan's History for the Current Transition and Beyond
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's history provides important insights and lessons for the 2011 to 2014 transition and beyond, but differences with the past must be taken into account. As the 1933 to 1973 decades demonstrate, the country can be stable and effectively governed, but that stability was anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and a centralized though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978. Given the country's history of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the next presidential election, if successful, would be the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. Expectations about the pace of progress must be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions recognized. Regional countries could derail peace prospects, and planning around such spoilers may be needed. The difficulties of reaching a peaceful solution during a military withdrawal, and the adverse consequences when such efforts fail, were demonstrated during the period from 1986 to 1992. The period after the Soviet withdrawal shows the potential and limitations of Afghan security forces: holding onto Kabul and other cities is probably the most that can be hoped for in the current transition. The option of arming and paying militias is dangerous because it opens the door to instability and predatory behavior. The Afghan economy is in much better shape than it was during and after the Soviet period, and a deep economic contraction in coming years needs to be avoided. Afghanistan will depend heavily on outside financial support for many years, and such support must not be abruptly cut back or stopped. Effective national leadership is critical during transitions. It is important not to overlearn from history, for example, Afghanistan's problematic experience over the past half-century with political parties, which are essential to successful democratic systems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
6. Can Economic Reform Open a Peaceful Path to Ending Burma's Isolation? (Burmese edition)
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin and Lex Rieffel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- After decades of domestic conflict, military rule and authoritarian governance, Burma's economy could provide a viable entry point for effective international assistance to promote peace. Doing so would require a detailed understanding of the country's complex and evolving political economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Asia
7. Media and Conflict: Afghanistan as a Relative Success Story
- Author:
- Yll Bajraktari and Christina Parajon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The development of media in post-Taliban Afghanistan has been relatively successful (compared with both the Taliban regime and other countries subject to international intervention) in establishing free and responsible expression despite the lack of electricity, harsh terrain, absence of viable media outlets during the Taliban regime, and a conservative religious society that subordinates women. However, Afghanistan's media development remains incomplete. Since it still faces many challenges, the international community must continue to assist and support it.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Education
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
8. A Toxic Cocktail: Pakistan's Growing Instability
- Author:
- J Alexander Thier
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, predominantly Muslim nation of 165 million, has experienced a dramatic rise in political turmoil and violence in the last year. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, analysts have raised serious concerns about Pakistan's stability and the possibility of a collapse of the federation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
9. Afghanistan's Economy: On the Right Road, But Still a Long Way to Go
- Author:
- Beth Ellen Cole
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has now laid the foundation for a market-based economy. A new economic system, based on the state as a regulator, not a producer, of goods, with a clear separation between the public and private sectors, stands in place of the centralized economy of the past. An independent central bank, a liberalized foreign exchange system, and laws permitting foreigners to wholly own property characterize the new economic landscape. A doubling of the gross national product and per capita income, a 13 percent growth rate in 2007, and modest inflation paint a vibrant picture.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
10. Nepal in Transition: Developing Security and Rule of Law Strategies
- Author:
- Karon Cochran-Budhathoki and Colette Rausch
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In February 2007, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) facilitated a series of dialogues in Kathmandu, Nepal between civil society, the Nepal police, and representatives of political parties. The aim was to identify those areas of mutual concern related to security and the rule of law in Nepal. Civil society representatives from development organizations, media, human rights groups, the legal community, and Dalit and Janajati rights groups participated. The representatives from the Nepal police included deputy inspector generals, senior superintendents, superintendents, and deputy superintendents of police. The dialogue sessions were conducted over the course of four days. On day one, civil society representatives met to discuss the challenges and possible solutions to security and the rule of law. The next day, the police discussed the same issues. On day three, the two groups came together to develop a joint list of high-priority issues. On the final day, the police and civil society representatives presented this joint list to political party representatives.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Nepal