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22. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China
- Author:
- Rhys Jenkins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
23. The Optimal Distance to Port for Exporting Firms
- Author:
- Thomas Gries, Wim Naudé, and Marianne Matthee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Success in international trade depends, amongst other things, on distance from markets. Most new economic geography models focus on the distance between countries. In contrast much less theorizing and empirical analysis have focused on how distances within a country—for instance due to the location behaviour of exporting firms—matter to international trade. In this paper we contribute to the literature on the latter by offering a theoretical model to explain the optimal distance that an export-oriented firm would locate from a port. We present empirical evidence from South Africa in support of the model.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
24. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach
- Author:
- Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
25. The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System
- Author:
- Silvia Nenci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
26. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand
27. Trade Liberalization and the Self-employed in Mexico
- Author:
- Gurleen K. Popli
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper I examine the trend in income inequality and poverty among the selfemployed workers in Mexico over the last two decades (1984–2002). This is the period over which Mexico opened its economy to the global market through trade and investment liberalization. For the first decade following the liberalization, inequality and poverty among the self-employed increased; as the economy stabilized and the country saw economic growth inequality started to go down, but poverty kept increasing. To understand the changes in inequality and poverty I decompose the inequality and poverty indices into within and between group components. Rising returns to skilled labour, regional differences in impact of liberalization and sectoral shifts in employment are important factors in explaining the trends in both inequality and poverty.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Mexico
28. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala
- Author:
- Paul Winters, Angeli Kirk, Benjamim Davis, and Calogero Carletto
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- As developing countries continue on the path of economic liberalization, there is a compelling need to ensure that the benefits of globalization reach poor rural communities. Increased commercialization of agriculture and diversification into nontraditional exports (NTXs) is one strategy that has often been advocated as a way for developing countries to use their comparative advantage in lower labor costs and to achieve growth in the agricultural sector. Given the predominantly rural nature of most developing countries and the preponderance of poor people in these areas, high-value agricultural production is considered the ideal mechanism to extend the benefits of globalization directly to the rural poor:1 Allowing poor farmers to shift into the export sector and take advantage of internationally demand driven prices that are higher relative to traditional crops may reduce inequality while fostering overall economic growth (Nissanke and Thorbecke 2007).
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. The Significance of Transport Costs in Africa
- Author:
- Wim Naudé and Marianne Matthee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The success of Africa's exports, as well as its spatial development, depends on lowering transport costs. In this Policy Brief, we address a number of pertinent questions on transport costs in Africa, such as 'what are transport costs?', 'do transport costs matter for trade?', 'how important are transport costs in practice?', and 'why are Africa's transport costs so high?' We present a case study of the firm location decisions of exporters in South Africa to illustrate the significance in particular of domestic transport costs for manufactured exports. The message from this Policy Brief is that Africa's international transport costs are significantly higher than that of other regions, and its domestic transport costs could be just as significant. Moreover we show how domestic transport costs influence the location, the quantity, and the diversity of manufactured exports. Various policy options to reduce transport costs in Africa are discussed.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Africa
30. Stranger than Fiction? Understanding Institutional Changes and Economic Development
- Author:
- Ha-Joon Chang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The volume Institutional Change and Economic Development fills some important gaps in our understanding of the relationship between institutional changes and economic development. It does so by developing new discourses on the 'technology of institution building' and by providing detailed case studies—historical and more recent— of institution building. It is argued that functional multiplicity, the importance of informal institutions, unintended consequences, and intended 'perversion' of institutions all imply that the orthodox recipe of importing 'best practice' formal institutions does not work. While denying the existence of universal formulas, the volume distills some general principles of institutions building from theoretical explorations and case studies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance