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71. International Integration and Regional Development in China

Author:
Thomas Gries and Margarete Redlin
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Concerns about the duration of China's growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China's high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China's provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Further, in contrast to implications from NEG models indicators for urbanization and agglomeration do not contribute significantly.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

72. Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Stephanié Rossouw
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A small but growing literature has been concerned about the economic (and environmental) vulnerability on the level of countries. Less attention is paid to the economic vulnerability of different regions within countries. By focusing on the vulnerability of subnational regions, our paper contributes to the small literature on the 'vulnerability of place'. We see the vulnerability of place as being due to vulnerability in various domains, such as economic vulnerability, vulnerability of environment, and governance, demographic and health fragilities. We use a subnational dataset on 354 magisterial districts from South Africa, recognize the potential relevance of measuring vulnerability on a subnational level, and construct a local vulnerability index (LVI) for the various districts. We condition this index on district per capita income and term this a vulnerability intervention index (VII) interpreting this as an indicator of where higher income per capita, often seen in the literature as a measure of resilience, will in itself be unlikely to reduce vulnerability.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

73. Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India

Author:
Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty components. Our decomposition shows that idiosyncratic risks account for the largest share, followed by poverty and aggregate risks. Despite some degree of risk-sharing, the landless or small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, forcing them to reduce consumption. Income-augmenting policies therefore must be combined with those that not only reduce aggregate and idiosyncratic risks but also build resilience against them.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
India and Asia

74. Reducing People's Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Communities and Resilience

Author:
Terry Cannon
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The concepts vulnerability, resilience and community are widely used and abused in the literature on natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. This paper seeks to bring greater rigour in their use. In particular, vulnerability must be understood as a set of socioeconomic conditions that are identifiable in relation to particular hazard risks, and therefore perform a predictive role that can assist in risk reduction. Resilience is often confused as a concept, sometimes seen as the inverse of vulnerability, and by others as an independent quality. These confusions may be especially relevant in the context of §policy for disaster risk reduction at the scale of community. Here there is often an idealized notion of community as undifferentiated and unproblematic.
Topic:
Development, Disaster Relief, and Political Economy

75. State Fragility: Concept and Measurement

Author:
Mark McGillivray and Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The international donor community has grave concerns about the prospects for poverty reduction in what it terms fragile states. A state is classified as fragile if its country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) score falls below a particular threshold. Recognizing that all states are fragile to varying degrees, this paper questions the method used by the international community to deem a country fragile. This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to deem a country as fragile. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country fragility classifications. The paper applies its framework to 76 low-income countries, for which the CPIA data are publicly available. The fragile state group that this framework provides is compared to that which the international donor community has constructed.
Topic:
Development and International Political Economy

76. Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The first Millennium Development Goal aims to halve the number of people in the world living in extreme poverty. In this research brief, emanating from the UNU-WIDER project on “Fragility and Development”, the premise is that we should also be concerned about households which are vulnerable to poverty. This includes those who have little likelihood of escaping from poverty and those who are at risk of falling into poverty in the future. Household vulnerability to poverty is affected by, and affects, vulnerability in other dimensions and levels, such as the vulnerability of a country or region to natural hazards and macro-economic shocks. To address household vulnerability in developing countries requires an understanding of the concept and nature of vulnerability, its measurement and its application. Therefore, this research brief asks what is vulnerability? How can vulnerability be measured? How should households, governments and development agencies respond to vulnerability?
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Third World

77. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic development is essential for every country but it is especially crucial for those countries in the aftermath of protracted armed confl ict, needing peacebuilding, recovery and reconstruction. Development aid alone cannot transform damaged economies, and it is here that foreign direct investment (FDI) can be a valuable tool to revitalize industries, rebuild infrastructures and eventually even eliminate the need for aid.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Third World

78. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
It has become increasingly clear that economic development and poverty reduction can significantly reduce the incidence of conflict. This is of particular importance for countries recovering from violent conflicts, considering they are often among the poorest even compared with other developing countries, and are extremely vulnerable to slipping back into violence.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Third World, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment

79. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:
Paul Winters, Angeli Kirk, Benjamim Davis, and Calogero Carletto
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
As developing countries continue on the path of economic liberalization, there is a compelling need to ensure that the benefits of globalization reach poor rural communities. Increased commercialization of agriculture and diversification into nontraditional exports (NTXs) is one strategy that has often been advocated as a way for developing countries to use their comparative advantage in lower labor costs and to achieve growth in the agricultural sector. Given the predominantly rural nature of most developing countries and the preponderance of poor people in these areas, high-value agricultural production is considered the ideal mechanism to extend the benefits of globalization directly to the rural poor:1 Allowing poor farmers to shift into the export sector and take advantage of internationally demand driven prices that are higher relative to traditional crops may reduce inequality while fostering overall economic growth (Nissanke and Thorbecke 2007).
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

80. Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in China, 1995-2002

Author:
Renwei Zhao and Shi Li
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates some major changes in the wealth distribution in China using the data from two national household surveys conducted in 1995 and 2002. The surveys collected rich information on household wealth and its components, enabling a detailed analysis of changes in wealth distribution among Chinese households. Our analysis indicates that the wealth distribution in China as a whole became much more unequal in 2002 than it was in 1995. The housing reform, in which public apartments were sold to urban households at extremely low prices, has accelerated the accumulation of wealth among urban households on the one hand, and widened the wealth gap between urban and rural areas on the other.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia