Publishing Institution: United Nations University / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Development

1. Forced migration, aid effectiveness, and the humanitarian–development nexus: The case of Germany’s P4P programme

Author:: Stefan Leiderer and Helge Roxin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Bridging the gap between humanitarian assistance and development cooperation has been a contentious issue in academia and development practice for decades. Drawing on an evaluation of Germany’s ‘Partnership for Prospects’ initiative, this paper argues that, whilst the supplement of ‘peacebuilding’ to the nexus (humanitarian–development–peacebuilding [HDP] nexus) brought an important context factor into the discussion in an environment of conflict, it is only of marginal help in a context of forced migration to neighbouring countries of a given conflict. For the context of host countries of refugees in a protracted crisis, it is more relevant that host countries show ownership and reliability in their policies to create long-term perspectives for refugees. These policies in turn need to be embedded in reliable rules (polity) and negotiation processes (politics) in host countries. Consequently, the paper suggests that a ‘HD–Triple-P’ nexus would take the necessary political dimension into account more adequately. However, it might also mark the boundary as to what development politics can achieve.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Refugees, Conflict, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

2. Structural transformation and international trade: Evidence from the China shock

Author:: Clément Nedoncelle and Julien Wolfersberger
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports from China. We find that the so-called ‘China shock’ largely slows down the transformation of low- and middle-income economies out of agriculture. In our main specification industrialization decreases by 0.49 per cent on average for each additional per cent of manufacturing imports from China. It highlights a competition effect where exposure to Chinese imports is largely detrimental to structural transformation. These results hold across geographical regions, with a difference in Sub-Saharan Africa, where international trade causes an increase in the size of the services sector.
Topic:: Development, Economies, Trade, Industrialization, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed

Author:: Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
Topic:: Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

4. India’s economic development since independence: An interpretative survey

Author:: Kunal Sen
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with threefifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from agriculture, with less than one-fifth of output now originating from agriculture and the rest from manufacturing and services. Since the 1980s, along with structural change, there has been strong economic growth, till 2010, followed by a period of declining growth. In this paper, we describe India’s economic foundation, paying particular interest to the processes of economic growth and structural change. We begin with a brief discussion of the patterns of growth and structural change since independence. We then discuss the economic policies that have underpinned India’s economic development. Next, we discuss the evolution of the three main economic sectors—agriculture, industry, and services. We then provide a summary of India’s regional performance. We end with a discussion of India’s economic performance in the post-2014 period.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

5. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light

Author:: Veda Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa and India

6. Assessment of institutional set-up of results measurement and reporting systems for non-sovereign operations in development finance institutions

Author:: Patrick Mabuza, Francis H. Kemeze, Oluwatoba J. Omotilewa, Mamadou Bah, and Btissam Benkerroum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Development finance institutions (DFIs) foster sustainable development through financing, advisory services, and technical assistance. They complement public investments in developing and underserved markets to unlock development opportunities and deliver development results. Whereas DFIs’ missions are known among practitioners, their development achievements are often less understood. Consequently, DFIs have developed different results measurement and reporting systems to document the impacts of their interventions. This includes recent efforts to harmonize development impact indicators for results measurement and reporting. However, less is known about methodologies used in development outcomes assessments, or institutional set-ups for measuring and reporting these outcomes. This hampers knowledge on what works or does not work from a development finance perspective, preventing feedback mechanisms for DFIs to learn from prior interventions, mitigate risks, and ultimately improve subsequent interventions. Using a newly developed integration index score of hard versus soft integration of results measurement and reporting systems, and primary and secondary data from eleven such systems within DFIs, this study examines the set-up and effectiveness of different results reporting systems and mechanisms currently in place in DFIs. Findings reveal that although all interviewed DFIs measure anticipated (ex-ante) and ex-post development outcomes, only 27 per cent operate a fully integrated results measurement and reporting system that permits a 360- degree feedback loop for development effectiveness.
Topic:: Development, Finance, and Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Building resilience knowledge for sustainable development: Insights from development studies

Author:: Albert Sanghoon Park
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores how the concept of resilience has been used in development studies. Set amidst the rise of resilience in sustainable development, it offers insights for scholars and policy-makers, alike. Sampling 419 resilience-oriented journal articles from 2017–22, it uses Kuhnian paradigms to analyse development knowledge production. This produces three key findings. First is the absence of a coherent resilience paradigm (with shared definitions, problems, and methods) in development studies. Second is its use, instead, by pre-existing paradigms as a theoretical add-on to better address complexity and/or as a new buzzword to repackage prior arguments. Third are latent possibilities for resilience as both a rallying call and siren song in sustainable development. Here, resilience discourses open vital space for development cooperation and climate action. However, its outcomes will depend on whether we can first understand precisely what we talk about when we talk about resilience.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Wartime governance and state-building trajectories in post-conflict societies

Author:: Patricia Justino
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: To date, there is limited understanding about the consequences of wartime dynamics for post-war state-building processes. This paper explores one such dynamics—the forms of governance exercised by armed groups during wartime—and proposes a theoretical framework outlining how forms of wartime governance affect trajectories of state-building in the aftermath of civil wars. Six possible trajectories are mapped out: stable democracy, weak democracy, stable autocracy, fragmented rule, contested autocracy, and durable disorder. Each trajectory is shaped by the interaction between two dimensions of wartime governance: how armed groups build institutional capacity in wartime and the characteristics of wartime civilian rule by armed groups. The core argument is that civil wars generate within themselves bureaucratic and institutional capacity—through how armed groups govern territories and civilians within them—that under certain circumstances may be harnessed in the post-war period to build states capable of governing. The characteristics and durability of those forms of wartime governance shape the type of statebuilding and political regime trajectories that emerge in the post-war period.
Topic:: Political Violence, Development, War, Conflict, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. Aid’s impact on democracy

Author:: Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, Ana Horigoshi, and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the impact of foreign aid on democratic outcomes using a panel of countries for the period between 1995 and 2018. In so doing, it speaks to a major critique of foreign aid, which is that it negatively impacts democratic governance. The analysis distinguishes between developmental aid and democracy aid, and examines democracy aid to specific sectors, in order to explore variation across different aid types. It draws on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Creditor Reporting System (CRS) data on foreign aid and indices of democracy from the Varieties of Democracy project, employing a combination of a maximum likelihood estimation and structural equation modelling (ML-SEM) model and fixed effects models. Overall, using a more extensive set of data and methods than previous analyses, we offer comprehensive evidence pointing to aid having a positive if modest impact on democratic outcomes. Our analysis suggests this effect is more significant for democracy aid than developmental aid, but there is no evidence of negative impact for either. These results are robust to multiple specifications.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Does the adoption of peer-to-government mobile payments improve tax revenue mobilization in developing countries?

Author:: Abdoul-Akim Wandaogo, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jesse Lastunen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Developing countries need to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance development. Revenue mobilization is often hampered by limited tax compliance, weak institutions, and technical problems with tax collection. One solution to these challenges is person-to-government (P2G) mobile phone payments, adopted in a number of developing countries since the early 2000s. This study assesses the causal effect of P2G adoption on tax revenue using propensity score matching. According to the matching estimates, countries that adopt P2G services experience a 1.2–1.3 percentage point boost in direct tax revenue as a share of GDP. P2G adoption increases revenue from both corporate and personal income taxes, with larger effects on the latter. The results remain robust to matching quality tests and alternative estimation methods, including function control, two-stage least squares, and system generalized method of moments. The average treatment effects are largest among lower-middle-income countries and countries characterized by limited tax compliance and corruption control, and by low levels of urbanization and domestic credit to the private sector. The findings suggest that developing countries, particularly those with poor institutions and low levels of financial inclusion, should promote the adoption and use of mobile money services for tax transactions.
Topic:: Development, Government, Finance, Economy, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. Exploring social policy trajectories in Mainland Tanzania: Driving for gender-inclusive development?

Author:: Roosa Lambin and Milla Nyyssölä
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In July 2020, the United Republic of Tanzania gained the status of a lower-middleincome country. This came after two decades of significant social policy reforms and transformations in the country’s economic structures. This paper explores social policy trajectories in Mainland Tanzania with a gender lens, to better understand the contributions of these developments to inclusive development. More precisely, we examine past and current policy developments across the areas of health policy, social protection, and employment policy, and the level, reach, and quality of government social policy delivery to working-age women. The paper draws on a scoping review of diverse secondary materials, including academic publications, government policy documents, relevant statistics, and other types of literature. The findings indicate that despite significant advancements in the legal frameworks and increasingly gender-responsive government policy plans, Tanzanian social policy delivery remains two-tiered, with differences in provisions for women in the formal and informal sectors. Additionally, women continue to be largely overlooked in the broader industrialization and development strategy, which hinders the achievement of inclusive development in Tanzania.
Topic:: Development, Social Policy, Inclusion, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

12. Does aid fragmentation affect tax revenue dynamics in developing countries? Observations with new tax data

Author:: Ali Compaoré and Abrams M. E. Tagem
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There exists a burgeoning empirical literature on the impact of aid fragmentation on development outcomes in aid-receiving countries, with it being widely recognized that aid fragmentation is deleterious. This paper adds to the existing literature by estimating the impact of aid fragmentation on tax revenue mobilization in developing countries. Drawing on the popular system generalized method of moments technique to counter endogeneity issues, this study focuses on a sample of 90 developing countries covering the period from 2000 to 2020. We show that aid fragmentation, measured by the Herfindahl index, has a significant negative impact on recipient countries’ tax revenue ratios, an impact that is not mitigated by the level of institutional quality. The paper also explores the impact of aid fragmentation on tax structure and finds convincing evidence that direct taxes, particularly corporate income taxes, are the most affected. Value-added tax is the only indirect tax affected by aid fragmentation.
Topic:: Development, Tax Systems, Institutions, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. Employer power and employment in developing countries

Author:: Nancy H. Chau, Ravi Kanbur, and Vidhya Soundararajan
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The issue of employer power is underemphasized in the development literature. The default model is usually one of competitive labour markets. This assumption matters for analysis and policy prescription. There is growing evidence that the competitive labour markets assumption is not valid for employment in developing countries. Our objective in this paper is to review this evidence, to present theoretical and policy perspectives that follow from it, and to highlight areas for further research.
Topic:: Development, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. Firm performance, trade linkages, and the growth of SMEs in Tanzania

Author:: Josaphat Kweka, Julian Boys, and Amrita Saha
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The private sector and enterprises have a key role to play in the development of the Tanzanian economy. This Policy Brief provides insights and solutions that could offer business sectors the vital policy support that they need to develop and grow.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

15. Migration governance in the Global South

Author:: Rachel M. Gisselquist and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Building knowledge about migration governance and policy in the Global South is a priority for research and policy. Migration is a defining feature of our time and one closely linked with processes of economic and political development. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target 10.7 prioritizes the facilitation of ‘orderly, safe, and responsible migration and mobility of people, including through the implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies’. What exactly constitutes ‘well-managed’ migration policies remains a point of some discussion.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Governance, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global South

16. Agricultural input subsidy and farmers outcomes in Tanzania

Author:: Bethuel Kinyanjui Kinuthia
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of the government input subsidy—the National Agriculture Input Voucher—on farmers’ production and welfare in Tanzania as well as the factors that influence agricultural production in the country. The analysis is based on the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for 2008–13. The study uses panel fixed effects and difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methods to examine the two objectives. The results show that the input subsidy programme resulted in an initial increase in maize and rice production but not in the long run and only in a few regions. In addition, there was a decrease in total production in the southern region and the programme had little effect on farmers’ welfare. The results show that this programme only partly met the expected outcomes in Tanzania due to mistargeting, inaccurate identification of households, and poor implementation.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Welfare, Farming, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

17. Is global inequality rising or falling?

Author:: Tony Addison, Jukka Pirttilä, and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: When measured in relative terms, global inequality has been decreasing. However, in absolute terms it has been increasing. What does this mean for analysing and addressing inequality? While it remains vital to continue reducing the global incidence of poverty, inequality has risen both in international and national agendas. Inequalities — in incomes, assets, and human development — matter for citizens as ethical and political issues. Large inequalities matter for economic development as they and can slow economic growth, generate economic crises, and destabilize political systems.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. The politics of social protection in Eastern and Southern Africa: Actors, institutions and dynamics

Author:: Sam Hickey, Tom Laver, Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, and Jeremy Seekings
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since the mid-1990s, there has been in Africa something of a ‘quiet revolution’ in poverty reduction strategies with the proliferation of social assistance programmes that entail cash transfers to the poor. The past two decades have also been characterized by a series of important political developments that have reshaped both state–society relations within sub-Saharan Africa and its relationship with transnational actors. What lies behind these changes?
Topic:: Development, International Organization, Poverty, and Social Services
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

19. Nationalism and development in Asia

Author:: Prasenjit Duara
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper identifies historic patterns in the dialectic between nationalism and development across various East, South, and Southeast Asian nations. Nationalism as the rationale for development is used by regimes to achieve high levels of growth, but also generates exclusivism and hostilities, often in order to integrate a political core. Popular nationalism has also dialectically reshaped the goals and patterns of development during the post-Second World War period. The region is divided into zones shaped by twentieth-century historical and geo-political conditions. Colonial and Cold War conditions were as important as internal political and ethnic circumstances. Turning points in the dialectical relationship were common within a region. More recently, a common transregional pattern has emerged with neoliberal globalization being accompanied by exclusivist nationalism.
Topic:: Development, Nationalism, War, History, and Colonialism
Political Geography:: Asia

20. Industries without smokestacks: Industrialization in Africa reconsidered

Author:: Richard Newfarmer and John Page
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Our research shows that structural change in Africa is relying on a new set of economic activities, called ‘industries without smokestacks’, created by recent technological changes and a changing global market place. Adopting a broad concept of industrialization is crucial to recognizing that manufacturing, while important, is not everything. However, a lot needs to be done internationally, regionally and at the country-level to push these unique drivers of structural change.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Investment, Diversification, and Industry
Political Geography:: Africa

21. Poverty and wellbeing impacts of microfinance: What do we know?

Author:: Mathilde Maîtrot and Miguel Niño-Zarazúa
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Over the last 35 years, microfinance has been generally regarded as an effective policy tool in the fight against poverty. Yet, the question of whether access to credit leads to poverty reduction and improved wellbeing remains open. To address this question, we conduct a systematic review of the quantitative literature of microfinance’s impacts in the developing world, and develop a theory of change that links inputs to impacts on several welfare outcomes. Overall, we find that the limited comparability of outcomes and the heterogeneity of microfinance-lending technologies, together with a considerable variation in socio-economic conditions and contexts in which impact studies have been conducted, render the interpretation and generalization of findings intricate. Our results indicate that, at best, microfinance induces short-term dynamism in the financial life of the poor; however, we do not find compelling evidence that this dynamism leads to increases in income, consumption, human capital and assets, and, ultimately, a reduction in poverty.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Developing World, Finance, and Microeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. The political economy of clean energy

Author:: Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In broad terms, the climate challenge is relatively straightforward. Global average temperatures are rising because of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Continuation of current levels of emissions or (worse) continued growth in emissions throughout the twenty-first century could result in warming far above the two-degree Celsius threshold with very dangerous implications for the environment of the planet and for human societies, particularly poor people.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Political Economy, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Development assistance for peacebuilding

Author:: Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Development assistance to fragile states and conflict-affected areas is a core component of peacebuilding. It includes support for the restoration of core government functions, delivery of basic services, the rule of law, and economic revitalization. Yet, while aid has been among the largest financial inflows to fragile states in recent years, its impact has been mixed. Better understanding of what works and why thus remains a core challenge for development researchers and practitioners.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Aid, environment and climate change

Author:: Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Development aid by itself cannot ‘save the planet’. Yet, development aid and institutions have the potential to remain important catalytic actors in achieving developmental and global environmental objectives. Developing countries must be crucial players in successful climate change mitigation as they are responsible for 88% of the growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 1970. However, the current aid architecture — which was designed in the 1970s when environmental issues were a distant concern — is not well suited to support environmental challenges that extend beyond low-income countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Aid for governance: How to support effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions for sustainable development?

Author:: Rachel M. Gisselquist and Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Aiding government effectiveness in developing countries has been a priority issue for the international donor community since the 1990s. With the Paris Declaration in 1994, donors further committed to aiding government effectiveness in a manner consistent with local ownership and harmonization with national development objectives. These issues have received renewed attention in discussions surrounding the Sustainable Development Goals, which have highlighted the importance of effective governance and institutions.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Women in the Informal Economy: Experiments in Governance from Emerging Countries

Author:: Shyama V. Ramani, Ajay Thutupalli, Sutapa Chattopadhyay, Veena Ravichandran, and Tamás Medovarszki
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Women entrepreneurs in the informal economy need business engagements with other women (and men) that offer 'spaces' for dialogue to learn and build business capabilities. While formalization of entrepreneurial activity is favourable under some circumstances, it can be detrimental under others, necessitating a case-by-case evaluation. Many top-down actions for women's empowerment in the informal sector are only effective in gender-neutral economic development programmes. In this Policy Brief, we argue that although policy interventions may be favourable, they are neither necessary nor sufficient for change, as successful women role models are often the best agents for sweeping change.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Gender Issues, and International Trade and Finance

27. Death Penalty Policy in Countries in Transition

Author:: Madoka Futamura
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Countries under transition from war to peace or from an authoritarian to a democratic regime face fundamental political and social transformations and difficulties in emerging from a problematic past. The transition presents challenges but also opportunities for countries to reconsider their death penalty policies. It is in such a context that some countries abolish, retain or even actively resort to the death penalty to tackle transitional needs. Those who are working for abolition of the death penalty need to go beyond the human rights approach and take a more holistic approach to understand the fragile and complex local situation and needs in which the death penalty becomes a highly political issue.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Human Rights, Political Economy, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Reform

28. Multi-actor Approaches to Total Sanitation in Africa

Author:: Kei Otsuki, Weena Gera, and David Mungai
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since the 2000s, African cities have witnessed a series of interventions to improve water and sanitation. This policy brief outlines key lessons learned from the intervention experience, drawing on the UNU research project Multi-level Urban Governance for Total Sanitation (2011-2013) under the Education for Sustainable Development in Africa (ESDA) Project. It highlights the importance of multi-actor approaches for promoting: (1) an institutional framework to coordinate civil society organizations, community-based organizations, and the state agencies across levels; (2) policy recognition of water and sanitation as socially embedded infrastructure with gendered dimensions; and (3) the relevance of scientific research and university education to ongoing policy interventions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Health, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa

29. Democratic Trajectories in Africa: Unravelling the Impact of Foreign Aid

Author:: Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: When, why and how has foreign aid facilitated, or hindered, democracy in recipient countries? Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this policy brief examines the impact of foreign aid on supporting transitions from one-party to multi-party regimes, preventing democratic breakdown and the erosion of civil liberties, enhancing vertical and horizontal accountability, and enabling competitive political party systems. Particular attention is given to the trade-offs and complementarities between different types of foreign aid, namely democracy assistance and economic development aid. Select policy recommendations are offered to improve aid effectiveness at bolstering democratic trajectories within the region.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa

30. Indicators of Resilience in Socio-ecological Production Landscapes (SEPLs)

Author:: Nadia Bergamini, Robert Blasiak, Pablo Eyzaguirre, Kaoru Ichikawa, Dunja Mijatovic, Fumiko Nakao, and Suneetha M. Subramanian
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The following policy report constitutes an important supplement to a set of 20 indicators for resilience in socio-ecological production landscapes (SEPLs) that was developed over the course of joint collaboration between Bioversity International and the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS). The indicators were disseminated widely in pamphlet form for the first time in March 2012. Subsequently, a need was identified for sharing a more in-depth overview of the considerations that went into creating this list of indicators as well as the outcomes of initial field-testing.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Environment, and Sociology

31. Development

Author:: David M. Malone and Rohinton P. Medhora
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Notions of development have varied over time, and so an account of the international organizations concerned with its advancement must be accordingly elastic. The roots of international organizations concerned with development lie in two aspects of global inter-connectedness. The first is the propagation and management of a nascent technology for the global good. Thus were born the International Telegraph Union (ITU, now the International Telecommunication Union) in 1865 and the General Postal Union (GPU, now the Universal Postal Union) in 1874.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Post Colonialism

32. Achieving Development Success: Strategies and Lessons from the Developing World

Author:: Augustin K. Fosu
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: What can the less well-off developing countries learn from the “successes” of other developing countries? This Policy Brief highlights successful development strategies and lessons from in-depth case studies of select countries from the developing world. The coverage includes East Asia and the Pacific, the emerging Asian giants, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, along with respective regional syntheses. Although countries' experiences are not necessarily replicable, the recurrent themes across countries and regions provide the appropriate connectedness for a comprehensive global perspective on development strategies and lessons.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Latin America

33. What is the (New) Deal with Fragile States?

Author:: Wim Naudé
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Some states lack the capability and/or the willingness to progressively promote the shared development of their citizens and are particularly vulnerable to external shocks and internal conflicts. They have been described as "fragile states". The poor governance and lack of state capabilities in around 45 fragile states pose a threat to global security and development. Effective international partnerships are necessary to pull them out of low-development–high-conflict traps. The "New Deal on Fragile States" announced on 30 November 2011 at the Fourth High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan by the g7+ (see "The International Dialogue on Peace-building and State-building and the g7+" Box) is the most recent initiative to foster such partnerships.
Topic:: Security, Development, Political Economy, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State

34. Research Capacity Development for Environmental Management in Cambodia: Outlining a Multi-Sector Approach

Author:: Kei Otsuki and Shimako Takahashi
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Research capacity development at the higher education level in order to improve environmental planning and management has been considered invaluable in ensuring the sustainable development of developing countries. In least developed countries (LDCs), such as Cambodia, people are especially vulnerable to environmental changes and advanced knowledge is urgently needed to enhance their socio-ecological resilience; however, governments lack both the financial and human resources needed to ensure adequate academic infrastructure for knowledge generation and dissemination. Furthermore, the international aid community has rarely placed emphasis on investing in higher education in developing countries; instead, producing basically skilled labourers through primary and secondary education was considered more effective in bringing return on investment and enhancing economic development. Neither national nor international development agendas have so far resulted in a substantial commitment to research capacity development of academic institutions in LDCs.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Environment
Political Geography:: Cambodia and Southeast Asia

35. Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries

Author:: Wim Naudé, Adam Szirmai, and Micheline Goedhuys
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Nobody can be left in any doubt as to the importance of innovation for prosperity upon reading that “people living in the first decade of the twentieth century did not know modern dental and medical equipment, penicillin, bypass operations, safe births, control of genetically transmitted diseases, personal computers, compact discs, television sets, automobiles, opportunities for fast and cheap worldwide travel, affordable universities, central heating, air conditioning . . . technological change has transformed the quality of our lives.”
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, and Markets

36. Reasoning about a distributed probabilistic system

Author:: J.W. Sanders and Ukachukwu Ndukwu
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Reasoning about a distributed system that exhibits a combination of probabilistic and temporal behaviour does not seem to be easy with current techniques. The reason is the interaction between probability and abstraction, made worse by remote synchronisation. In this paper the recently proposed language ptsc (for probability, time and shared-variable concurrency) is extended by constructs for interleaving and local block. Both enhance a designer's ability to modularise a design; the latter also permits a design to be compared with its more abstract specification, by concealing appropriately chosen design variables. Laws of the extended language are studied and applied in a case study consisting of a faulty register-transfer-level design.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Organization, United Nations, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: United States

37. Managing the growing impacts of development on fragile coastal and marine ecosystems: Lessons from the Gulf

Author:: Hanneke Van Lavieren, John Burt, David A. Feary, Geórgenes H. Cavalcante, Elise Marquis, Lisa Benedetti, Charles Trick, Björn Kjerfve, and Peter F. Sale
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Like many other places in the world, the coastal region of the Persian Gulf (also known as the Arabian Gulf, and hereafter referred to as 'the Gulf') faces continuous environmental degradation. The unprecedented rate and scale of development that has occurred poses numerous environmental challenges and may be the greatest threat facing the Gulf's marine communities in the coming decades as urban populations along it's shores continue to grow. Some Gulf countries have already developed more than 40% of their coastline during the last 20 years. Pressure on coastal ecosystems is especially high in the smaller Gulf countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, where residents either live entirely, or almost entirely within 100 km of the coast. Development has led to loss and severe degradation of important natural habitats, including mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral reefs. Coastal 'mega-projects' including artificial islands, waterfront cities, ports, marinas and man-made waterways have sometimes been poorly conceived from an environmental perspective, leading to severe pressure on natural environments. Because development has taken place so rapidly there has not been enough time to develop adequate regulatory, technical, and monitoring capacity to guide this growth appropriately. Present trends suggest that development will not be accompanied by appropriately sophisticated policies and mechanisms for minimizing and mitigating deleterious impacts on the environment.
Topic:: Development, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Arabia

38. Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries

Author:: Augustin Kwasi Fosu
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The study presents recent global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early/mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analysed for the US$1.25 andUS$2.50 level poverty headcount ratios using the most recent World Bank data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this 'average' dominant growth story. While in the majority of countries growth was the major factor behind falling...
Topic:: Development, Economics, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:: United States

39. Thailand's Development Strategy and Growth Performance

Author:: Peter Warr
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Thailand's development strategy has been strongly market-oriented and open to trade and investment flows with the rest of the world. Since the late 1950s, its growth performance has been outstanding. Poverty incidence has declined dramatically, but economic inequality has increased. Economic progress has been reflected in very significant improvement in non-economic indicators of well-being such as life expectancy, infant and maternal morality, and literacy. Nevertheless, the performance of the education system is chronically poor. Environmental problems and institutional failures in resource management are ongoing. Reform is needed in several areas, including political and corporate governance, regulation of industry, and in the education and health systems.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

40. Sensitivity of Loan Size to Lending Rates

Author:: Samuel Kobina Annim
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the combined effect of interest rates and poverty levels of microfinance clients on loan size. Cross section data on 2,691 clients and non-clients households from Ghana is used to test the hypothesis of loan price inelasticity. Quantile regression and variants of least squares methods that explore endogeneity are employed. We find the expected inverse relationship only for the 20th to 40th quantile range. The semi-elasticity of loan amount responsiveness to a unit change in interest rate is more than proportionate and significant for the poorest group only. Market segmentation based on poverty level is suggested in targeting and sustaining microfinance clients.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa

41. Aid Supplies Over Time: Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics

Author:: Sam Jones
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The recent financial crisis has rekindled interest in the foreign aid supply behaviour of bilateral donors. Using the latest data covering the period 1960-2009, this paper examines how such behaviour is related to domestic factors. Based on a simple empirical model, a distinction is made between long-run supply trends and short-run dynamics, which motivates use of error correction methods. Panel econometric techniques are employed that are consistent in the presence of parameter heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results support the error correction framework, but point to very substantial heterogeneity between countries. There is also good evidence that donor behaviour continues to evolve over time. As such, past trends in aid supplies are unlikely to provide a good guide to those of the future.
Topic:: Development, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis

42. Latin American Urban Development into the 21st Century

Author:: Ravi Kanbur, Dennis Rodgers, and Jo Beall
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper argues for a more systemic engagement with Latin American cities, contending it is necessary to reconsider their unity in order to nuance the 'fractured cities' perspective that has widely come to epitomise the contemporary urban moment in the region. It begins by offering an overview of regional urban development trends, before exploring how the underlying imaginary of the city has critically shifted over the past half century. Focusing in particular on the way that slums and shantytowns have been conceived, it traces how the predominant conception of the Latin American city moved from a notion of unity to a perception of fragmentation, highlighting how this had critically negative ramifications for urban development agendas, and concludes with a call for a renewed vision of Latin American urban life.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Latin America

43. The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries' Terms of Trade

Author:: Konstantin M. Wacker
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper first shows that important economic arguments in favor of the Prebisch- Singer hypothesis of falling terms of trade of developing countries have implicitly relied on the role of multinational corporations and foreign direct investment. As of yet, the relationship between the latter and terms of trade has not been empirically investigated. In order to start closing this gap in research, data on 111 developing countries between 1980 and 2008 is analyzed using panel data methods. The empirical results suggest that there is no reason to believe multinationals' activities were responsible for a possible decrease of the developing countries' net barter terms of trade. On the contrary, foreign direct investment seems to play a positive role for developing countries' terms of trade.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

44. Are Electoral Coalitions Harmful for Democratic Consolidation in Africa?

Author:: Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Electoral coalitions are becoming increasingly popular among opposition parties in Africa because they offer many advantages with respect to reducing party fragmentation and increasing incumbent turnovers. At the same time, however, they are often comprised of parties that are defined predominantly by their leaders' personalities and exhibit little differentiation in terms of their policy orientation. Based on a dataset spanning all opposition coalitions since 2000 in Africa's electoral democracies, this paper demonstrates not only that coalitions rarely defeat incumbents but also that they are only competitive when major opposition parties are involved. More significantly, the paper highlights that in many countries, a sizeable share of total electoral volatility is due to fluctuations in voting for opposition parties that have belonged to coalitions. The paper argues that such volatility reflects the inability of coalition members to build loyal constituency bases over time, which is critical for party development and broader consolidation.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

45. Determinants of Industrial Embeddedness: Evidence from African Manufacturing Firms

Author:: Abdelrasaq Na-Allah
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Recent developments in policy initiatives as well as some current practical events have combined to put the spotlight on the issue of industrial embeddedness in sub-Saharan Africa. Though extant research documents some stylized facts, as determinants of its manifestations, their relevance to realities in the sub-continent, have until now been overlooked. Yet, it is difficult to ignore the fact that its constituent economies possess some peculiar attributes with potentially significant implications for embeddedness behaviour. Using data for the country of Lesotho, a probit model is estimated to ascertain the veracity of some of the widely acclaimed explanatory factors. We find, as we argue, that among all, the issue of supply potentials appears the most important.
Topic:: Development and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Africa

46. Does Lack of Innovation and Absorptive Capacity Retard Economic Growth in Africa?

Author:: Steve Onyeiwu
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper reviews the innovative capabilities and absorptive capacities of African countries, and investigates whether they have played significant roles in the region's slow and episodic economic growth. Results from cross-country regressions covering 31 Sub-Saharan African countries suggest that growth in Africa is not simply a question of capital accumulation, fertility rates, aid dependency, and stable macroeconomic environment. It is also about strengthening the capacity of African countries to assimilate and effectively use knowledge and technology. Contrary to the views held by many analysts, the growth of African economies does not depend so much on their ability to innovate, but rather on their capacity to absorb and effectively use new technologies. Beyond technological issues, the paper confirms the stylized facts that the size of the government and political stability are important for the growth performance of African countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Africa

47. Globalization Crises, Trade, and Development in Vietnam

Author:: Philip Abbott and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Vietnam has been among the most successful East Asian economies, especially in weathering the external shocks of recent globalization crises—the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-09 great recession, financial crisis and collapse of global trade. Its success contradicts its characterization as an example of export-led growth and highlights the role of the state, particularly in maintaining and influencing investment. Examination of economic performance and policy responses shows rising dependence on foreign finance around each crisis, and actions by the government to counteract that dependence and bolster the domestic economy while continuing to restructure the economy toward greater emphasis on the private sector. Growth, employment and poverty alleviation have been maintained at the expense of renewed inflation, larger budget deficits, and currency depreciation. The 'stop-go' nature of present …
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

48. Promoting Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries: Policy Challenges

Author:: Wim Naudé
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This policy brief provides some fresh perspectives on the relationship between entrepreneurship and development, and considers policy design issues. It reports on the UNU-WIDER two-year research project “Promoting Entrepreneurial Capacity”, which aimed to understand whether and how entrepreneurship matters for development, how it could derail development, how entrepreneurs function in high growth as well as in conflict environments, and how female entrepreneurship differs across countries at various stages of development.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Third World
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and Burundi

49. Toward a Global Science and Technology Policy Agenda for Sustainable Development

Author:: Paul A. David, Can Huang, Luc Soete, and Adriaan van Zon
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The current economic crisis has tended to sap the policy momentum that had developed during 2006 and 2007 behind public R programmes and institutional initiatives to expand the portfolio of affordable technological means of controlling global warming. This is unfortunate, since the international negotiations about concerted actions among the leading industrial countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have so far proceeded very slowly – too slowly, considering both the global nature of the problem and the size of the stakes involved. The initial “bargaining” stance taken by some important players, notably Japan and the United States, was in some respects disappointing in that it appears to fall far short of the EU member countries' endorsement in December 2008 of the package of EC directives designed to activate its “20-20-20” renewable energy strategy – a 20 per cent reduction of GHG emissions, and 20 per cent of energy consumption from renewable sources, by the year 2020. While there have been more promising developments recently, in the convergence towards that target in some of the legislation introduced in the US Congress, and the Obama administration's issuance of US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory directives requiring the use of the latest emissions control technologies on new and retrofitted electricity power plants, the outcome of the Copenhagen conference in December 2009 remains uncomfortably uncertain.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

50. Can We Eradicate Hunger?

Author:: Basudeb Guha-Khasnobis
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: World hunger is prevalent yet receives relatively less attention compared to poverty. The MDGs have taken a step to address this with the resolution of halving the number of starving people in the world by 2015. A substantial and sustainable reduction in hunger will also greatly improve the chances of meeting the MDGs related to poverty reduction, education, child mortality, maternal health, and disease. Hunger though is not a straightforward problem of producing enough to feed the world's population; it has many cross-cutting dimensions. This study addresses a combination of economic, social, and political perspectives, drawing upon academic research of the economic factors and the experiences of international organizations and civil society.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, and International Organization

51. Analysing the Impact of Natural Hazards in Small Economies: The Caribbean Case

Author:: Martin Heger, Alex Julca, and Oliver Paddison
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper analyses the impact of natural disasters in the Caribbean. The economic impact of natural disasters in the region has been significant, resulting in widespread destruction of the productive economy. This paper presents the main macroeconomic impact of disasters, e.g., a deteriorating fiscal balance, a collapse of growth and a worsening external balance, as a consequence of damage resulting from the event. By making special reference to the small-island developing state nature of many countries in the region, valuable lessons of the impact of such disasters on the capital stock can be learnt, particularly as the interruption of production of goods and services can be particularly devastating in an environment where few large sectors (agriculture, tourism) dominate the economic landscape.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Markets, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Caribbean

52. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point?

Author:: Fang Cai
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country's dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China's growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China's economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

53. Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?

Author:: Oleksiy Ivaschenko and Cem Mete
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Tajikistan's rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Asia and Tajikistan

54. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector

Author:: Peter Sheehan
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

55. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:: Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: China and Asia

56. China's Development Strategy and Energy Security: Growth, Distribution and Regional Cooperation

Author:: Haider A. Khan
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper analyses both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China's energy security. China's growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and South Korea

57. Comparing Regional Development in China and India

Author:: Yanrui Wu
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Economic growth in China and India has attracted many headlines recently. As a result, the literature comparing the two Asian giants has expanded substantially. This paper adds to the literature by comparing regional growth, disparity and convergence in the two economies. This is the first of its kind. The paper presents a detailed examination of economic growth in the regions of China and India over the past twenty years. It also provides an assessment of regional disparity in the two countries and investigates whether there is any evidence of regional convergence during the period of rapid economic growth. It attempts to identify the sources of regional disparity and hence draw policy implications for economic development in the two countries in the near future.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

58. The Determinants of Child Weight and Height in Sri Lanka: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author:: Harsha Aturupane, Anil B. Deolalikar, and Dileni Gunewardena
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Reducing child malnutrition is a key goal of most developing countries. To combat child malnutrition with the right set of interventions, policymakers need to have a better understanding of its economic, social and policy determinants. While there is a large literature that investigates the determinants of child malnutrition, it focuses almost exclusively on mean effects of these determinants. However, socioeconomic background variables and policy interventions may affect child nutrition differently at different points of the conditional nutritional distribution. Using quantile regressions, this paper explores the effect s of variables such as a child's age, sex and birth order; household expenditure per capita; parental schooling; and infrastructure on child weight and height at different points of the conditional distributions of weight and height using data from Sri Lanka's Demographic and Health Survey. Results indicate that OLS estimates can be misleading in predicting the effects of determinants at the lower end of the distributions of weight and height. For example, even though on average Sri Lankan girls are not nutritionally-disadvantaged relative to boys, among children at the highest risk of malnutrition girls are disadvantaged relative to boys. Likewise, although expenditure per capita is associated with strong nutritional improvement on average, it is not a significant determinant of child height or weight at the lower end of the distribution. Similarly, parental education, electricity access, and the availability of piped water have larger effect son child weight and height at the upper quantiles than at the lower quantiles. The policy implication is that general interventions—parental schooling, infrastructure and income growth—are not as effective for children in the lower tail of the conditional weight and height distributions. These children, who are at the highest risk of malnutrition, are likely to need specialized nutritional interventions.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Health
Political Geography:: Asia and Sri Lanka

59. Determinants of State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Assessment Based on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project

Author:: David Carment, Stewart Prest, and Yiagadeesen Samy
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper is derived from our ongoing research on fragile states funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to help policymakers and analysts make decisions on where and how to allocate aid, especially in fragile state environments. In order for development assistance to have a measurable and positive impact on fragile states, it is necessary to understand both how and why they become fragile. First, we reconceptualize the meaning of state fragility with equal attention given to the authority, legitimacy and capacity of a state, collectively referred to as ALC. Measures of these ALC components corresponding to six different categories of state performance—economics, governance, security and crime, human development, demographics, and the environment—are collected for all countries for the period 1999-2005. Initial testing of our fragility index shows that fragility is driven by a number of factors, of which the level of development seems to be more important. We complement this analysis by examining state fragility using the ALC framework. Overall, the approach presented has the distinct advantage of identifying country -specific patterns of fragility while at the same time allowing for broad strategically relevant measures of comparative performance that can be of use to policymakers regarding allocation of aid at the sectoral and programming level. Notwithstanding the fact that aid may be allocated for political and strategic reasons, and that fragile states are underfunded, we argue that aid that does flow to fragile states could be better targeted. Specifically, it could strengthen the underlying determinants of fragility by addressing fragile states' distinct and country-specific weaknesses in authority, legitimacy and capacity. Finally, we discuss policy implications of our analysis and directions for future research.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, and International Political Economy

60. Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

Author:: Yuefen Li and Bin Zhang
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
Topic:: Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

61. Earnings Mobility in Times of Growth and Decline: Argentina from 1996 to 2003

Author:: Gary S. Fields and María Laura Sánchez Puerta
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In recent years, the economy of Argentina has experienced both rapid economic growth and severe economic decline. In this paper, we use a series of one -year long panels to study who gained the most in pesos when the economy grew and who lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. To answer these questions, we test two hypotheses both unconditionally and conditionally. The 'divergence of earnings' hypothesis holds that in any given year, the highest earning individuals are those who experienced the largest earnings gains or the smallest earnings losses in pesos. The 'symmetry of gains and losses' hypothesis holds that those groups that gained the most in pesos when the economy grew are those that lost the most in pesos when the economy contracted. Both hypotheses are decisively rejected in the data.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

62. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements

Author:: Lino Briguglio, Gordon Cordina, Stephanie Vella, and Nadia Farrugia
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, economic vulnerability is defined as the exposure of an economy to exogenous shocks, arising out of economic openness, while economic resilience is defined as the policy-induced ability of an economy to withstand or recover from the effects of such shocks. The paper briefly reviews the work already carried out on economic vulnerability and extends the research towards the development of a conceptual and methodological framework for the definition and measurement of economic resilience. Towards this end, the paper proposes an index of economic resilience gauging the adequacy of policy in four broad areas, namely macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, good governance and social development.
Topic:: Development and Economics

63. Entrepreneurship and Structural Economic Transformation

Author:: Thomas Gries and Wim Naudé
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: A stylized fact of economic development is the structural transformation of countries from traditional, mainly agricultural societies to modern economies dominated by manufacturing and services. In this paper we provide an endogenous growth model to illuminate the role of entrepreneurial start-up firms in structural economic transformation. We follow the Lewis-model's distinction between a traditional and modern sector, and underpin this with micro-foundations. We specify mature and start- up entrepreneurs and make a distinction between survivalist self-employment activities in the traditional sector, and opportunity-driven entrepreneurship in the modern sector. The model shows how opportunity-driven entrepreneurship can drive structural transformation through innovation, provision of intermediate inputs and services (which permits greater specialization in manufacturing), and by increasing employment and productivity in both the modern and traditional sectors.
Topic:: Development and Economics

64. Entrepreneurship in Economic Development

Author:: Wim Naudé
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: What is the role of entrepreneurship in economic development? At a minimum the answer should be able to explain the role of entrepreneurs in the structural transformation of countries from low income, primary-sector based societies into high-income service and technology based societies. More broadly though, it should also be able to explain the role of entrepreneurs in the opposite pole of stagnating development (including conflict) and in high innovation-driven growth. Although economic development lacks a 'general theory' of entrepreneurship, which could encompass a variety of development experiences, much progress has been made in extending the understanding of entrepreneurship in the process of development. This paper surveys the progress with the purpose of distilling the outlines for a more general theory of entrepreneurship in economic development. Entrepreneurship in developing countries remains a relatively under-researched phenomenon, so by surveying the current state of research, and by discussing the role of entrepreneurship in dual economy models of structural transformation and growth, a secondary objective of this paper is to identify avenues for further research. Finally, the policy implications from the economic literature suggest that a case for government support exists, and that this should focus on the quantity, the quality, and the allocation of entrepreneurial ability. Many routinely adopted policies for entrepreneurship, such as provision of credit and education, are shown to have more subtle effects, not all of which are conducive to growth-enhancing entrepreneurship.
Topic:: Development and Economics

65. Foreign Aid as Prize: Incentives for a Pro-Poor Policy

Author:: Tejashree Sayanak and Sajal Lahiri
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We develop a theoretical model of foreign aid to analyse a method of disbursement of aid which induces the recipient government to follow a more pro-poor policy than it otherwise would do. In our two-period model, aid is given in the second period and the volume of it depends on the level of wellbeing of the target group in the first period. We find that this way of designing aid does increase the welfare of the poor. We also consider the situations where the donor and the recipient governments act simultaneously as well as sequentially, and find that by moving first in a sequential game, the donor country can, under certain conditions, increase the welfare of the poor and its own compared to the case of simultaneous moves.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation

66. Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis

Author:: Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan, and S. Selvanathan
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988-2003. Towards this purpose, a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques are used. The results show that while there is a bi-directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single-directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

67. Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Author:: Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class—a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account—as the GIDD does—income dynamics between and within countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, China, India, and Asia

68. Globalization, Literacy Levels, and Economic Development

Author:: Alok Bhargava
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper estimated models for GDP growth rates, poverty levels, and inequality measures for the period 1990–2000 using data on 54 developing countries at five-yearly intervals. Issues of globalization were investigated by analysing the differential effects of the countries' exports and imports and by postulating trans-logarithmic models that allow for non-linear effects of literacy levels and measures of openness. The main findings were that literacy rates affected growth rates in a quadratic manner and countries with higher literacy were more likely to benefit from globalization. Second, the model for growth rates showed non-linear and differential effects of the export/GDP and import/GDP ratios. Third, the models indicated that population health indicators such as life expectancy were important predictors of GDP growth rates. Fourth, models for poverty measures showed that poverty was not directly affected by globalization indicators. Finally, the model for Gini coefficients indicated significant effects of 'medium' and 'high' skilled labour work force, with higher proportions of high-skilled labour implying greater inequality.
Topic:: Development, Education, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty

69. Growth Oriented Macroeconomic Policies for Small Islands Economies: Lessons from Singapore

Author:: Anis Chowdhury
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Most small island economies or 'microstates' have distinctly different characteristics from larger developing economies. They are more open and vulnerable to external and environmental shocks, resulting in high output volatility. Most of them also suffer from locational disadvantages. Although a few small island economies have succeeded in generating sustained rapid growth and reducing poverty, most have dismal growth performance, resulting in high unemployment and poverty. Although macroeconomic policies play an important role in growth and poverty reduction, there has been very little work on the issue for small island economies or microstates. Most work follows the conventional framework and finds no or very little effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in stabilization. They also concentrate on short-run macroeconomic management with a focus almost entirely on either price stability or external balance. The presumption is that price stability and external balance are prerequisite for sustained rapid growth. This paper aims to provide a critical survey of the extant literature on macroeconomic policies for small island economies in light of the available evidence on their growth performance. Given the high output volatility and its impact on poverty, this paper will argue for a balance between price and output stabilization goals of macroeconomic policy mix. Drawing on the highly successful experience of Singapore, it will also outline a framework for growth promoting, pro-poor macroeconomic policies for small island economies/microstates.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, Caribbean, and Singapore

70. How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

Author:: Julie Subervie, Patrick Guillaumont, and Catherine Korachais
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted Millennium Goals. However, there is a significant debate on the means of reaching it and its realism with regard to the situation in most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this goal are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined.
Topic:: Development, Health, and Third World

71. International Integration and Regional Development in China

Author:: Thomas Gries and Margarete Redlin
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Concerns about the duration of China's growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China's high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China's provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Further, in contrast to implications from NEG models indicators for urbanization and agglomeration do not contribute significantly.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: China and Asia

72. Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions

Author:: Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Stephanié Rossouw
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: A small but growing literature has been concerned about the economic (and environmental) vulnerability on the level of countries. Less attention is paid to the economic vulnerability of different regions within countries. By focusing on the vulnerability of subnational regions, our paper contributes to the small literature on the 'vulnerability of place'. We see the vulnerability of place as being due to vulnerability in various domains, such as economic vulnerability, vulnerability of environment, and governance, demographic and health fragilities. We use a subnational dataset on 354 magisterial districts from South Africa, recognize the potential relevance of measuring vulnerability on a subnational level, and construct a local vulnerability index (LVI) for the various districts. We condition this index on district per capita income and term this a vulnerability intervention index (VII) interpreting this as an indicator of where higher income per capita, often seen in the literature as a measure of resilience, will in itself be unlikely to reduce vulnerability.
Topic:: Security, Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

73. Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India

Author:: Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty components. Our decomposition shows that idiosyncratic risks account for the largest share, followed by poverty and aggregate risks. Despite some degree of risk-sharing, the landless or small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, forcing them to reduce consumption. Income-augmenting policies therefore must be combined with those that not only reduce aggregate and idiosyncratic risks but also build resilience against them.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: India and Asia

74. Reducing People's Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Communities and Resilience

Author:: Terry Cannon
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The concepts vulnerability, resilience and community are widely used and abused in the literature on natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. This paper seeks to bring greater rigour in their use. In particular, vulnerability must be understood as a set of socioeconomic conditions that are identifiable in relation to particular hazard risks, and therefore perform a predictive role that can assist in risk reduction. Resilience is often confused as a concept, sometimes seen as the inverse of vulnerability, and by others as an independent quality. These confusions may be especially relevant in the context of §policy for disaster risk reduction at the scale of community. Here there is often an idealized notion of community as undifferentiated and unproblematic.
Topic:: Development, Disaster Relief, and Political Economy

75. State Fragility: Concept and Measurement

Author:: Mark McGillivray and Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The international donor community has grave concerns about the prospects for poverty reduction in what it terms fragile states. A state is classified as fragile if its country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) score falls below a particular threshold. Recognizing that all states are fragile to varying degrees, this paper questions the method used by the international community to deem a country fragile. This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to deem a country as fragile. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country fragility classifications. The paper applies its framework to 76 low-income countries, for which the CPIA data are publicly available. The fragile state group that this framework provides is compared to that which the international donor community has constructed.
Topic:: Development and International Political Economy

76. Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Author:: Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The first Millennium Development Goal aims to halve the number of people in the world living in extreme poverty. In this research brief, emanating from the UNU-WIDER project on “Fragility and Development”, the premise is that we should also be concerned about households which are vulnerable to poverty. This includes those who have little likelihood of escaping from poverty and those who are at risk of falling into poverty in the future. Household vulnerability to poverty is affected by, and affects, vulnerability in other dimensions and levels, such as the vulnerability of a country or region to natural hazards and macro-economic shocks. To address household vulnerability in developing countries requires an understanding of the concept and nature of vulnerability, its measurement and its application. Therefore, this research brief asks what is vulnerability? How can vulnerability be measured? How should households, governments and development agencies respond to vulnerability?
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Third World

77. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:: Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Economic development is essential for every country but it is especially crucial for those countries in the aftermath of protracted armed confl ict, needing peacebuilding, recovery and reconstruction. Development aid alone cannot transform damaged economies, and it is here that foreign direct investment (FDI) can be a valuable tool to revitalize industries, rebuild infrastructures and eventually even eliminate the need for aid.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Third World

78. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:: Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: It has become increasingly clear that economic development and poverty reduction can significantly reduce the incidence of conflict. This is of particular importance for countries recovering from violent conflicts, considering they are often among the poorest even compared with other developing countries, and are extremely vulnerable to slipping back into violence.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Third World, Foreign Aid, Infrastructure, and Foreign Direct Investment

79. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:: Paul Winters, Angeli Kirk, Benjamim Davis, and Calogero Carletto
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: As developing countries continue on the path of economic liberalization, there is a compelling need to ensure that the benefits of globalization reach poor rural communities. Increased commercialization of agriculture and diversification into nontraditional exports (NTXs) is one strategy that has often been advocated as a way for developing countries to use their comparative advantage in lower labor costs and to achieve growth in the agricultural sector. Given the predominantly rural nature of most developing countries and the preponderance of poor people in these areas, high-value agricultural production is considered the ideal mechanism to extend the benefits of globalization directly to the rural poor:1 Allowing poor farmers to shift into the export sector and take advantage of internationally demand driven prices that are higher relative to traditional crops may reduce inequality while fostering overall economic growth (Nissanke and Thorbecke 2007).
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

80. Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in China, 1995-2002

Author:: Renwei Zhao and Shi Li
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper investigates some major changes in the wealth distribution in China using the data from two national household surveys conducted in 1995 and 2002. The surveys collected rich information on household wealth and its components, enabling a detailed analysis of changes in wealth distribution among Chinese households. Our analysis indicates that the wealth distribution in China as a whole became much more unequal in 2002 than it was in 1995. The housing reform, in which public apartments were sold to urban households at extremely low prices, has accelerated the accumulation of wealth among urban households on the one hand, and widened the wealth gap between urban and rural areas on the other.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

81. Rehabilitating Health Systems in Post-Conflict Situations

Author:: Gilbert Burnham, Brinnon Garrett, and Hugh Waters
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Although baseline data for post-conflict situations are frequently unavailable, there is a clear deterioration in the health conditions of populations during and following conflict. Excess mortality and morbidity, displaced populations, and vulnerability to communicable diseases during and following conflict all call for immediate relief and restoration of basic services. As much as possible, short-term relief and assistance programmes should be implemented in a manner compatible with longer term health system rehabilitation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Health, and War

82. Regional Income Inequality in Rural China, 1985-2002: Trends, Causes and Policy Implications

Author:: Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper depicts the trend of regional inequality in rural China for the period 1985- 2002. The total inequality is decomposed into the so-called within- and between components when China is divided into three regional belts (east, central and west). A regression-based accounting framework is then used to explore root sources of the rising inequality. Policy implications are discussed.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

83. Rights-based Approach to Development: Lessons from the Right to Food Movement in India

Author:: Basudeb Guha-Khasnobis and S. Vivek
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In April 2001 the People's Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) approached the Supreme Court of India arguing that the government has a duty to provide greater relief in the context of mass hunger. The litigation has now become the best known precedent on the right to food internationally. This paper reviews the litigation with a view to understand various strategies used by the litigants to create and enforce far-reaching entitlements in a near legal vacuum on the right to food. This is followed by a discussion on the lessons from this case for a rights-based approach to development at large.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: India and Asia

84. Linking Globalization to Poverty

Author:: Erik Thorbecke and Machiko Nissanke
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: While the economic opportunities offered by globalization can be large, a question is often raised as to whether the actual distribution of gains is fair, in particular, whether the poor benefit less than proportionately from globalization and could under some circumstances be hurt by it. This Policy Brief summarizes and examines the various channels and transmission mechanisms, such as greater openness to trade and foreign investment, economic growth, effects on income distribution, technology transfer and labour migration, through which the process of globalization affects different dimensions of poverty in the developing world.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Globalization, and Poverty

85. Measuring Human Well-being: Key Findings and Policy Lessons

Author:: Mark McGillivray and David Clark
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This Policy Brief is an outcome of the UNU-WIDER research project 'Social Development Indicators'. The overall aim of the project was to provide insights into how human well-being might be better conceptualized and, in particular, measured, by reviewing various concepts and measures and then offering recommendations for future practice and research. This Policy Brief outlines a contextual background to the project, by introducing some key concepts and measures used in assessing achieved well-being, especially at the national level. Highlighted are some of the best known and most widely used well-being measures. The Policy Brief then provides an overview of the five edited volumes that have emerged from the project, summarizing some of the main conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Demographics, Development, and Poverty

86. Stranger than Fiction? Understanding Institutional Changes and Economic Development

Author:: Ha-Joon Chang
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The volume Institutional Change and Economic Development fills some important gaps in our understanding of the relationship between institutional changes and economic development. It does so by developing new discourses on the 'technology of institution building' and by providing detailed case studies—historical and more recent— of institution building. It is argued that functional multiplicity, the importance of informal institutions, unintended consequences, and intended 'perversion' of institutions all imply that the orthodox recipe of importing 'best practice' formal institutions does not work. While denying the existence of universal formulas, the volume distills some general principles of institutions building from theoretical explorations and case studies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance

87. Building the Rule of Law under UN Transitional Administration

Author:: Carolyn Bull
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: For international actors seeking to consolidate peace and democracy in disrupted states, the importance of establishing the rule of law is well-recognised. Yet this goal has proven frustratingly elusive. In the hostile intervention environment of the post-conflict disrupted state, international actors in the UN system and elsewhere have struggled to build legitimate state structures to redress disputes peacefully. They have found it even more challenging to instil principles of governance that promote accountability to the law, protect against abuse and generate trust in the state. This brief examines the difficulties faced by UN peace operations in attempting to build the rule of law, with reference to UN transitional administrations in Cambodia, Kosovo and East Timor.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Government, International Law, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Kosovo and Cambodia

88. Housing Privatization and Household Wealth in Transition

Author:: Ruslan Yemtsov
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: All countries in transition experienced increases in inequality. They have also undertaken massive privatization of key asset housing, often on give-away terms. Are these two phenomena related? Has transfer of ownership rights to residents slowed down the inequality increases or it pushed it up? Surprisingly little is known in this area. This paper attempts to provide empirical evidence to start answering these questions. It shows how housing privatization affected the distribution of personal wealth and inequality in current consumption based on recent representative household surveys from three transition countries: Poland, Russia and Serbia. Survey data are compared with figures derived from national accounts and housing statistics. Contrary to common belief and some earlier evidence of strong equalizing effect of housing distribution in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the paper finds that the contribution of housing to the overall inequality levels is not strong, and is not universally progressive. There is also a significant variation across countries. In Russia and Serbia progressive. There is also a significant variation across countries. In Russia and Serbia features of privatization programmes resulted in better off households capturing more valuable housing assets on extremely beneficial terms, while in Poland privatization and housing reform led to more equitable outcomes. When owner occupied housing rents and durables are properly accounted for, the effects of housing ownership on inequality in current consumption are mildly progressive in Russia and Poland and regressive in Serbia. The paper argues that the information collected by regular household surveys provides only a starting point to study housing wealth distribution, and there are a number of gaps which should be addressed through improved data collection.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Russia, Poland, and Serbia

89. Global Inequality: Recent Evidence and Trends

Author:: Vicar Valencia, William E. Griffiths, D.S. Prasada Rao, and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the nature and extent of global and regional income distribution and inequality using the most recent country level data on income distribution drawn from World Bank and UNU-WIDER studies for the period 1993–2000. The methodology used is a recently developed technique to fit flexible income distributions to limited aggregated data. Empirical results show a very high degree of global inequality, but with some evidence of inequality decreasing between the two years.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and Globalization

90. Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues for Promotion Agencies

Author:: Sergey Filippov, Iornara Costa, and Mariana Zanatta
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The growing importance attached to attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) is evidenced by the steady rise of investment promotion agencies (IPAs) worldwide, especially from the early 1990s. Since its launch in 1995, the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA) has registered a growing number of members representing cities, regions, countries and free zones from all over the world: from 112 in 2002, 161 in 2004, rising to 191 members from 149 countries in 2006. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) there were around 500 IPAs in more than 160 countries in 2004.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United Nations

91. Mobilizing Talent for Global Development

Author:: Andrs Solimano
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The generation of new ideas and their application for productive uses is an important engine for growth and development. This is an area in which developing countries usually lag behind developed countries and is where development gaps are more evident. Behind the generation of ideas, innovations, and new technologies there is 'human talent': an inner capacity of individuals to develop ideas and objects, some of them with a high economic value. The 'human factor' is critical to the success or failure of many endeavours. Several countries, particularly China and India, followed by Russia, Poland, and some Latin American countries, are becoming an important source of talented people with PhDs and degrees in science, engineering, and other areas that can lead to change in the international patterns of comparative advantages and reduce development gaps. Part of the new talent formed in developing countries goes to live and work to developed countries, typically the USA, UK, and other OECD nations. At the same time multinational corporations are outsourcing several of their productive and service activities, including research and development, to developing countries (China and India are main destinations) to take advantage of the (less expensive) talent being developed there. Today, therefore, we see a double movement of talent and capital around the globe: on the one hand talent from developing countries is moving north seeking better opportunities where people are equipped with more capital, technologies, and effective organizations. On the hand capital from the north pursues talent in the south; a process largely led by multinational corporations.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, and India

92. Fiscal Policy for Poverty Reduction, Reconstruction, and Growth

Author:: Matthew Smith, Alan Roe, and Tony Addison
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: An effective state is able to mobilize revenue and spend it on infrastructure, services, and public goods that both enhance human capital and the well-being of communities (especially the poor), as well as stimulating investment and employment creation by the private sector. An effective state also manages public finance to ensure that macroeconomic balance is maintained—with policy neither too restrictive to discourage private investment and growth, nor too accommodative to create high inflation and crowd out private investment. Fiscal issues are therefore at the heart of the state's role in the development process and failure in this policy area—whether it is in taxation, public expenditures, or in managing the fiscal deficit and public debt—can quickly undermine growth and poverty reduction. Fiscal weakness can also be fatal to social peace when one or more ethnic, religious, or regional groups are taxed unfairly—or receives too little in the allocation of public spending.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

93. Hydrogen Fuel Cells and Transport Alternatives: Issues for Developing Countries

Author:: Grant Boyle and Lynn Mytelka
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Recent technological advances in the application of hydrogen fuel cells in the transport sector have drawn considerable attention and increased funding from both public and private sources over the past ten years. The International Energy Agency estimates that about US$1billion per year is currently being invested in public hydrogen and fuel cell research, development, test vehicles, prototype refuelling stations and demonstration projects, as compared to the total annual public budget for energy research, development and demonstration of around US$8billion. While still in the early stages of development and costly in comparison to conventional vehicle propulsion and fuel technologies, fuel cells and hydrogen offer a promising solution to address growing concerns over the transport sector's dependence on oil and its impact on climate change.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

94. Open Source and Open Standards: A New Frontier for Economic Development?

Author:: Philip Schmidt and Rishab Aiyer Ghosh
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Free software (also called open source software or libre software) has become one of the most talked about phenomena in the ICT world in recent years. This is remarkable, not only for the usual reasons—that open source has been around for many years as a volunteer driven success story before being discovered by big business and now government— but also because it has largely developed quietly on its own without the headline coverage and glare of international attention that it now receives.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:: United States

95. The Evolution of the Development Doctrine, 1950-2005

Author:: Erik Thorbecke
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The evolution of the development doctrine over the last six decades is analysed in some detail in this paper. The development doctrine is defined as the body of knowledge consisting of four interrelated components: (1) the prevailing development objectives; (2) the conceptual state of the art relating to development theories, models, techniques and applications; (3) the underlying data system; and (4) the resulting development strategy. The main contributions and changes in these four components are traced through, decade by decade, starting with the 1950s.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Politics, and Third World

96. Poverty, Pro-Poor Growth and Mobility: A Decomposition Framework with Application to China

Author:: Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper proposes a framework for incorporating longitudinal distributional changes into poverty decomposition. It is shown that changes in the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon index over time can be decomposed into two components—one component reflects the progressivity of income growth among the original poor, the other measures the extent of downward mobility experienced by the incumbent poor. The decomposition is applied to appraising poverty trends in China between 1988 and 1996. The results indicate that the proposed decomposition can complement the widely-used growthdistribution decomposition in providing insights into poverty dynamics.
Topic:: Development and Poverty
Political Geography:: China and Asia

97. Poverty Reduction in China: Trends and Causes

Author:: Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Applying the Shapley decomposition to unit-record household survey data, this paper investigates the trends and causes of poverty in China in the 1990s. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes; income growth and shifts in relative income distribution. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measures are computed and decomposed, with different datasets and alternative assumptions about poverty lines and equivalence. Among the robust results are: (i) both income growth and favourable distributional changes can explain China's remarkable achievement in combating poverty in rural areas in the first half of the 1990s; (2) in the second half of the 1990s, both rural and urban China suffered from rapidly rising inequality and stagnant income growth, leading to a slow-down in poverty reduction, even reversal of poverty trend.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: China and Asia

98. Policies towards Horizontal Inequalities in Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Author:: Frances Stewart
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The design of policies towards countries where major conflicts have ended is becoming a major issue in the development agenda partly because of the numbers of countries where such policy is relevant and partly because their situation tends to be among the most desperate. This paper is concerned with one major requirement in reconstruction policies that is often overlooked: that is to design policies which will reduce the horizontal inequalities which are often a major source of conflict. If they do not, there will be a danger of renewed mobilization around them and a further outbreak of violence. The paper reviews the range of policies which would contribute to reducing horizontal inequalities. It also considers some political issues surrounding such policies, including potential political risks which can arise in adopting these types of policy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and Peace Studies

99. Ethics, Rhetoric and Politics of Post-conflict Reconstruction: How Can the Concept of Social Contract Help Us in Understanding How to Make Peace Work?

Author:: Sirkku K. Hellsten
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since existing injustices and the quest for justice are seen to be the main causes for violent clashes, it is often claimed that the restoration of justice must be the most important goal of post-conflict reconstruction. However, the current policy approaches, social movements and theoretical models for conflict resolution tend to look at justice from merely technical point of view, as a rapid fix to overcome war and violence. This relates the notion of 'peace' to 'security' and replaces the concept of 'justice' with the concepts of 'law and order'. Restoration of justice, however, does not merely mean requirement of impartiality. This paper presents an ethical analysis on the relationship between the rule of law, social justice, the principle of impartiality and social cohesion in a post-conflict society by examining the problems of the social contract approach through communitarian and feminist critiques. The aim of the paper is to map out the ethical dilemmas involved in peace negations based on 'constructing' or 'restoring' justice in a society, and to guide a way towards more a comprehensive framework of ethics of justice for post-conflict reconstruction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies, and Politics

100. The Coherence of Democratic Peace-Building

Author:: Peter Burnell
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Recent attention has focused on the difficulties of establishing 'coherence' between humanitarian relief aid in complex emergencies and the objective of ending violent conflict. This paper introduces a parallel problem: absence of total synergy between making peace and building democracy. A widely held assumption in the international community is that in post-conflict situations peace-building and democratization are virtually synonymous; creating the conditions for the one does so for both, the two processes will be reciprocal and mutually supportive. This suggests the policy issues will be simple. But the reality could be very different. Choices have to be addressed between requisites for peace and conditions for democracy; over the different implications for peace of competing designs for democracy; and over the kind of 'democracy' and its relation to other essential developments like state-building Institutional crafting is important; but matters concerning civil society and political culture must be addressed too. Governance and welfare considerations will bear on both peace and democracy but not necessarily in identical ways. There are temporal choices to address as well; the order of passage from peace to stable democracy may be as significant as the rites of passage. The belief that the well-known theory of a democratic peace in international relations has its complement in a democratic domestic peace looks plausible, but 'getting there' after conflict will be challenging. Issues of strategy and policy are most problematic where peace, prosperity and democracy have all been deficient—a situation common to many societies.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS