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12. Manufacturing, Services and Premature Deindustrialization in Developing Countries: A Kaldorian Analysis
- Author:
- Ajit Singh and Sukti Dasgupta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a Kaldorian framework to examine the evidence of deindustrialization in developing countries at low levels of income, the jobless growth in these economies and the fast expansion of the informal sector. The questions are specifically examined for the Indian economy, using state level data but the analysis has a wider application for economic policy in developing countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- India
13. Vulnerability to Globalization in India: Relative Rankings of States Using Fuzzy Models
- Author:
- Brinda Viswanathan and S. Kavi Kumar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The net impact of globalization on developing countries, and more specifically on the poorer sections of population in these countries, is complex and context dependent, and hence needs to be analysed empirically. This study in the context of globalization attempts to develop regional level indices of vulnerability with respect to welfare loss in India using a methodology based on fuzzy inference systems. The vulnerability of an entity is conceptualized (following the practice in global climate change literature) as a function of its exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Empirical analysis based on such multidimensional conceptualization demands use of indicator-based approach which is attempted in this study and uses fuzzy models that adequately capture vagueness inherent in such approaches.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
14. Decomposing Spatial Differences in Poverty in India
- Author:
- Shatakshee Dhongde
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, India has been one of the fastest growing economies, and has experienced considerable decline in overall income poverty. However, in a vast country like India, poverty levels vary significantly across the different states. In this paper, we analyze the differences between poverty at the state and national level, separately for the rural and urban sector, in the year 1999-2000. Instead of following the usual practice of decomposing the changes in poverty over time, we decompose the changes in poverty across regions. Such decomposition reveals that differences in state and national poverty levels were largely explained by differences in the state and national mean income levels. Differences in the state and national distributions of income were less important in explaining spatial differences in poverty. An important policy implication of our results is that states with extremely high levels of poverty would have reduced poverty significantly by raising their mean income levels to the national mean income, instead of changing their distribution of income to match the national income distribution.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
15. Industrial Location and Spatial Inequality: Theory and Evidence from India
- Author:
- Somik V. Lall and Sanjoy Chakravorty
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We argue that spatial inequality of industry location is a primary cause of spatial income inequality in developing nations. We focus on understanding the process of spatial industrial variation—identifying the spatial factors that have cost implications for firms, and the factors that influence the location decisions of new industrial units. The analysis has two parts. First we examine the contribution of economic geography factors to the cost structure of firms in eight industry sectors and show that local industrial diversity is the one factor with significant and substantial cost reducing effects. We then show that new private sector industrial investments in India are biased toward existing industrial and coastal districts, whereas state industrial investments (in deep decline after structural reforms) are far less biased toward such districts. We conclude that structural reforms lead to increased spatial inequality in industrialization, and therefore, income.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
16. The Transition from Official Aid to Private Capital Flows: Implications for a Developing Country
- Author:
- Renu Kohli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- India's capital account displays a sharp swing in external financing from official assistance to private capital transfers in the 1990s. This paper examines the implications of this transition for the country. An analysis of the private resource transfer reveals that unlike official flows, private capital flows are associated with real exchange rate appreciation, expansion in domestic money supply and stock market growth, liquidity and volatility. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications of the transition for economic policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
17. Convergence Club Empirics: Some Dynamics and Explanations of Unequal Growth of Unequal Growth across Indian States
- Author:
- Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper documents the convergence of incomes across Indian states over the period 1965 to 1998. It departs from traditional analyses of convergence by tracking the evolution of the entire income distribution, instead of standard regression and time series analyses. The findings reveal twin-peaks dynamics-the existence of two income convergence clubs, one at 50 per cent, another at 125 per cent of the national average income. Income disparities across states seem to have declined over the 1960s, only to increase over the subsequent three decades. The observed polarization is strongly explained by the disparate distribution of infrastructure, and that of education, and to an extent by a number of macroeconomic indicators; that of capital expenditure and fiscal deficits.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
18. Impact of Trade Liberalization on Returns from Land: A Regional Study of Indian Agriculture
- Author:
- Ghosh Nilabja
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Trade liberalization, by aligning domestic prices with world prices, is envisaged to bring welfare gains to a country. In the case of Indian agriculture, owing to the vastness and diversity of the sector, the impact is likely to be profoundly unequal across regions especially when liberalization is double-edged, acting on both output and input sides. This paper views returns from land resource as a primary determinant of farmers' economic well-being and production incentive and considers paddy both as the dominant support for the rural population and as a product with comparative advantage, as most studies have demonstrated. Working with state and sub-state level data and taking account of the differences in technologies, productivities and transport costs, the paper finds that the gains vary regionally and may not be positive in all cases when both output and input prices are globally aligned.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
19. One Third of the World's Growth and Inequality
- Author:
- Danny Quah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper studies growth and inequality in China and India—two economies that account for a third of the world's population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the paper calibrates the impact each has on different welfare indicators and on the personal income distribution across the joint population of the two countries. For personal income inequalities in a China-India universe, the forces assuming first-order importance are macroeconomic: Growing average incomes dominate all else. The relation between aggregate economic growth and within-country in- equality is insignificant for inequality dynamics.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia