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231. Popular Unrest in Algeria: A Significant Challenge to Stability

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Embattled by popular protests for more than two months, the Algerian government — in advance of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's historic July 12 White House visit — faces the most significant challenge to its authority in nearly a decade. Defying a recent government ban on protest marches, the Berber-led opposition has called for another demonstration on July 5, Algerian Independence Day. Meanwhile, tensions between the regime and Algeria's angry populace show little sign of abating, increasing prospects for a violent summer of discontent.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

232. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

233. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

234. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

235. Special Policy Forum Report: The Iranian Presidential Poll: Does It Really Matter?

Author:
Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In May, Geneive Abdo, a research scholar at the Middle East Institute of the Columbia University School of International Affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. To see her remarks in their entirety, The election of Muhammad Khatami as president of Iran four years ago has given rise to a perception that he is a maverick, a rare political leader in Iranian history who advocates values important to the Western world: political pluralism, freedom of expression, and human rights for all, including religious minorities. However, Khatami's unwillingness to confront the establishment became clear early in his presidency. After students staged five days of protest in July 1999 — the first true test of Khatami's courage — the president took a different turn. He decided at critical moments to side with the establishment, no matter how much he might alienate his own supporters.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

236. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries

237. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

238. The United States, Iraq, and Iran: Proliferating Risks, Dwindling Opportunities

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
American policymakers face a number of decision points concerning U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran in the coming weeks. The UN Security Council has to act by June 4 to renew the oil-for-food program, providing the United States with an opportunity to secure approval for the "re-energized" sanctions regime that Secretary of State Colin Powell floated in March. Iran's policy direction will become clearer after its June 8 presidential elections, and that could influence the U.S. decision whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act that expires August 5. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering whether to indict senior Iranians for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Iran, and Arab Countries

239. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey -- Today's Political and Economic Realities

Author:
Tansu Ciller
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 8, 2001, Tansu Ciller, former prime minister and the leader of Turkey's True Path Party, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. At the dawn of the new millennium, Turkey remains a significant actor in its region despite economic difficulties. Turkey, a strategic partner with the United States, is a source of steadiness that is vital for peace in its region. Turkey's long relations with Israel play a stabilizing role in the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

240. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries