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61. PolicyWatch #1391: Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

62. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

63. PolicyWatch #1380: Ahmadinezhad Deflects Critcism with Attacks on Clerics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In late May, an official close to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad publicly accused more than forty high-ranking government officials -- including some of the country's most powerful clerics -- of economic corruption. These unprecedented revelations may signal the start of a significant power struggle inside the Iranian government, one likely to intensify between now and the May 2009 presidential election.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

64. PolicyWatch #1378: Ending (or Deepening) the Crisis in Lebanon: The Role of Electoral Reform

Author:
Jean-Pierre Katrib
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward civil war. Now that Fouad Siniora has been re-designated as prime minister, the Doha agreement's remaining elements include the difficult task of establishing a "national unity government" and holding parliamentary elections in 2009. The new law governing those elections will determine whether Lebanon will have a solid future foundation or if the day of final reckoning has been merely postponed.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

65. PolicyWatch #1374: Kuwaiti Elections: Democracy in Action, or Inaction?

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji and David Pollock
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, Kuwait's nearly 400,000 voters -- more than half of them women -- will go to the polls to elect a new parliament. The incoming body will replace the 2006 parliament that was dissolved by the ruling emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah, for failing to work together with the cabinet. Kuwait's parliament is relatively powerful compared to others in the region, but tension with the royal family has often produced only deadlock. Still, the elections are an important and interesting exercise in Arab democracy and may even produce a more constructive political environment.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

66. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

67. PolicyWatch #1363: Electoral and Social Tensions Spike in Egypt

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 8, Egypt held elections for nearly 53,000 municipal representatives. Not surprisingly, participation was abysmal: Egypt's ruling faction, the National Democratic Party (NDP), ran unopposed for more than 80 percent of the seats, while the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's only real opposition party -- boycotted the contest in response to government harassment. Although the White House issued a statement expressing concern about "widespread electoral violations," these issues represent only a fraction of Egypt's domestic problems, which also include food shortages, labor unrest, and increasing Islamist social and political penetration. Complicating matters, these crises coincide with the first political transition in decades -- the impeding retirement of eighty-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled since 1981. Taken together, these developments raise the specter of instability for a key U.S. ally.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Egypt

68. PolicyWatch #1355: Will the Turkish Constitutional Court Ban the AKP?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, H. Akin Unver, and Hale Arifagaoglu
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 14, Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed a case with the country's Constitutional Court asking it to shut down the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban seventy-one of its members from seeking elected office for five years. He accused the party of spearheading "anti-secular activities" in violation of the Turkish constitution. Although the court's disposition is uncertain, the case is likely to strengthen the AKP regardless of the outcome.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

69. PolicyWatch #1351: Will the Damascus Arab Summit Be Convened?

Author:
Hassan Barari
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the Middle East, it is widely believed that Syria is obstructing the election of a new Lebanese president. Amid this crisis, many are beginning to doubt whether the next Arab League summit, scheduled to open in Damascus at month's end, will take place at all.
Topic:
Democratization, International Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

70. PolicyWatch #1349: Who Represents the Iraqi Sunnis?

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunnis in Anbar and other western Iraqi provinces have struggled to develop a coherent and representative political leadership. The recently formed Iraqi Awakening Convention (IAC) -- a collective of so-called "Awakening council" leaders -- could represent the next step in that evolution and, if nurtured, make a significant contribution to broader political reconciliation. It will also mean, however, that current elected leaders will have to give way to new local leaders or compete politically with them, since it is pointless to compete violently given the asymmetry of the current power balance.
Topic:
Islam, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

71. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

72. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

73. Shimon Peres Addresses The Washington Institute's Soref Symposium

Author:
David Makovsky and Shimon Peres
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Can Israel live with an Iranian nuclear bomb? If the Iranians continue to do three things simultaneously -- namely, develop nuclear weapons, be a center of terror, and be fanatical in their ambition to run the entire Middle East -- eventually the three will mix and nuclear bombs may fall into the irresponsible hands of terrorists. Then it will be a problem for the rest of the world. The world cannot live with terrorists obtaining nuclear capacity, and sooner or later the world will take action. However, I do not believe that Israel has to be a volunteer or pioneer in that endeavor.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

74. The Future of Palestinian Politics

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

75. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

76. Olmert After Winograd: A Battle for Survival

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The just-released Winograd Report, an investigation of Israeli decisionmaking in the 2006 summer war with Hizballah, has put Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in a battle for survival. Today, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni publicly called for Olmert's dismissal. Will the prime minister's tenure last beyond this growing crisis?
Topic:
Defense Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

77. Cheney in the Middle East: Defining Key Issues and Mutual Interests

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Vice President Dick Cheney departed today on a trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. A bland statement issued from his office on May 3 said he was asked to travel by President Bush and would be having "discussions with the leaders of these countries on key issues of mutual interest." No details were offered of the subjects of these discussions, but vice presidents do not travel halfway around the world unless there is important business to conduct.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

78. Contributions of the Turkish Armed Forces to Middle East Peace Operations

Author:
Selahattin Iban
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The general view held by Middle Eastern nations is that political sensitivities make it impossible for regional or neighboring countries to perform peacekeeping in the area. However, the example set by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) in the past twelve years points to the fallacy of this view.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

79. PolicyWatch #1310: Lebanon's Presidential Crisis

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the end of the Lebanese presidential term neared and then passed on November 23, domestic and international forces have ratcheted up their involvement in electing the country's new president. But the political focus of the presidential elections has shifted from democratic and constitutional ideals to concerns about preventing civil strife -- a potential reality if no consensus on a candidate is reached between the two major Lebanese camps, the pro-Western March 14 alliance and the Hizballah-led opposition.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

80. PolicyWatch #1305: The PKK Redux: Implications of a Growing Threat

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 5, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and deputy chief of military staff Gen. Ergin Saygun visited President Bush in Washington to discuss the growing threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The composition of the Turkish delegation was symbolically important and demonstrates a new political stability based on the working relationship between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish military. Yet the newfound weight of the PKK issue may prove problematic for the United States -- and, in the long term, for Turkey as well.
Topic:
Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East