Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Journal:

301. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts

Author:: Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

302. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia

303. Decision Time on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: U.S. Strategy Hits a Critical Juncture

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As narratives about the root causes of the impasse in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations take shape, U.S. leaders have a major decision to make about whether to disengage from diplomacy or deepen involvement in less high-profile ways.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

304. The Battle for Southern Syria Heating Up

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments indicate a credible, previously unseen rebel threat to Damascus. While rebel militias have lately suffered serious setbacks in central and northern Syria, they are now recording significant successes in the south -- the region lying between Damascus and the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are on the defensive on all related fronts, risking the loss of this strategically important sector. It is becoming increasingly evident that a rebel push toward the capital from the south may be more promising militarily than an offensive from the so-far-stalemated front lines north of Damascus. The next few weeks may witness further major rebel gains on the southern front, which may ultimately pose the main threat to Assad's control.
Topic:: Terrorism and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

305. The Riddle of Succession in the Palestinian Authority

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the road to Palestinian succession, and potential candidates will likely have to form ad hoc alliances that result in significant policy compromises on peacemaking and other issues.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Palestine and Arabia

306. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:: Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

307. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
Topic:: International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain

308. Libya's Growing Risk of Civil War

Author:: Andrew Engel
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Long-simmering tensions between non-Islamist and Islamist forces have boiled over into military actions centered around Benghazi and Tripoli, entrenching the country's rival alliances and bringing them ever closer to civil war. On May 16, former Libyan army general Khalifa Haftar launched "Operation Dignity of Libya" in Benghazi, aiming to "cleanse the city of terrorists." The move came three months after he announced the overthrow of the government but failed to act on his proclamation. Since Friday, however, army units loyal to Haftar have actively defied armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Salem al-Obeidi, who called the operation "a coup." And on Monday, sympathetic forces based in Zintan extended the operation to Tripoli. These and other developments are edging the country closer to civil war, complicating U.S. efforts to stabilize post-Qadhafi Libya.
Topic:: Political Violence, Religion, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Libya, and Tripoli

309. With the Peace Process on Hold, Washington Still Faces Key Israeli-Palestinian Tests

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the coming days, the Obama administration faces key decisions on how to respond to a Palestinian government "backed by Hamas," whether to condone Hamas participation in Palestinian elections, and what strategy to adopt in response to another effort by Palestinians to enhance their status in the UN.
Topic:: Armed Struggle and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Nations

310. Jordan and the Syria Crisis: Mitigating the 'Known Unknowns'

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As extremists continue to move into southern Syria, growing security and humanitarian problems may soon outstrip Jordan's ability to handle spillover from the war.
Topic:: Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

311. Iran's Afghan Shiite Fighters in Syria

Author:: Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Afghan Shiite militants have been fighting on the Assad regime's side for some time, and the scope and strategic purpose of Iran's involvement is becoming increasingly clear.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

312. Hamas Opts for the Hezbollah Model

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hamas seems intent on using Hezbollah's "bullets plus ballots" approach to gain a military and political foothold in the West Bank, the PA, and the PLO.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East

313. Mosul Security Crisis: A Chance to Break Iraq's Political Logjam

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The loss of government control in a major city may be just the wakeup call Iraqi politicians need to embrace a more ambitious reconciliation agenda.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

314. Lebanon Unstable and Insecure

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Military coordination with Hezbollah may be providing a quick fix, but the country's long-term strength can only be achieved with a reconstituted March 14 coalition.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

315. The Return of Sunni Foreign Fighters in Iraq

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Mosul crisis highlights how ISIS has established a potent cadre of foreign jihadists who freely operate across the rapidly disappearing Iraq-Syria border.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

316. Iranian Proxies Step Up Their Role in Iraq

Author:: Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's proxy groups have been working closely with Iraqi government forces for some time and will likely become more important to Baghdad in light of recent events.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

317. Background on the 'Possible Military Dimensions' of Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:: Nima Gerami
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's compartmented nuclear program and fears of sabotage have complicated efforts to address IAEA concerns about the program's suspected military side.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

318. Eye on the Ball Amid Qatar-FIFA Corruption Charges

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Washington should use the State Department's upcoming annual "Trafficking in Persons" report to amplify international calls for strategic Persian Gulf partners to reform their expatriate labor practices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Washington

319. Israelis Kidnapped in the West Bank: Implications

Author:: Neri Zilber
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If U.S. policy was to "wait and see" how the Hamas-approved Palestinian reconciliation process would unfold in practice, the test is now.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America

320. Building a Base for Iraq's Counteroffensive: The Role of U.S. Security Cooperation

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Encouraging signs have emerged that the collapse of federal government control in Iraq may have slowed and that Baghdad is beginning the transition to counteroffensive operations to regain ground. Massive mobilization of largely Shiite volunteers has given Baghdad an untrained but motivated "reserve army" that can be used to swamp cross-sectarian areas around the Iraqi capital. All available formed military units have been pulled out of reserve and brought toward Baghdad to defend the capital. In this effort, all Department of Border Enforcement units have been relocated from the country's borders, and Iraqi army and Federal Police units have been redeployed from southern Iraq. Isolated federal government units are scattered across northern Iraq, in some cases hanging on against Sunni militants with the support of adjacent Kurdish forces.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, Law Enforcement, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

321. ISIS, Iraq, and the War in Syria: Military Outlook

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Events on the battlefield will reveal the true effects of the crisis, but the ISIS campaign in Iraq could ultimately help the Syrian opposition and hurt the Assad regime.
Topic:: Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

322. EU Court Annuls Hamas Terrorist Designation

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The group's legal challenge will likely succeed for now, but the EU can reinstate the ban by relying on the plethora of evidence from European terrorism cases involving Hamas. In the latest sign of the legal troubles facing the European Union's designation regime -- the authority under which governments can freeze funds and economic resources of illicit actors -- the EU General Court is expected to annul the terrorist designation of Hamas on December 17. The judgment comes on the heels of a similar action in October that annulled the Council of the European Union's designation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on similarly procedural grounds. Although the new judgment is not expected to acquit Hamas of charges related to violence, it comes at a time when the group's terrorist and militant activities are on the rise. And like the LTTE, Hamas will surely point to the judgment as "evidence" that it is not a terrorist entity.
Political Geography:: Europe

323. Palestinian-Israeli Incitement Can and Should Be Curbed, Especially Now

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Incitement by Palestinians and Israelis against each other should be penalized rather than explained away or dismissed. The omnibus spending bills just passed by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives include one obscure yet potentially significant provision on the issue of incitement in the Israeli-Palestinian arena: a reiteration of the requirement that the Palestinian Authority (PA) act to end its official incitement against Israel as a condition for continued U.S. funding. This provision should be enforced, not evaded as has been the case until now.
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Palestine

324. The Battle of Ideas 2.0: Combating ISIS Ideology at Home and Abroad

Author:: Matthew Levitt, Prince Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, and Hedieh Mirahmadi
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An in-depth conversation on the challenges of battling jihadist ideology in the ISIS era. On December 16, His Royal Highness Prince Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein of Jordan, Matthew Levitt, and Hedieh Mirahmadi addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. HRH Prince Zeid is the UN high commissioner for human rights. Levitt is the Institute's Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. Mirahmadi is the director of World Organization for Resource Development and Education (WORDE), a nonprofit dedicated to preventing radicalization. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: Jordan

325. The GCC in 2015: Domestic Security Trumps Regional Integration

Author:: Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The conservative Gulf Arab states are functioning more cohesively again after a year of diplomatic tensions, but questions persist about political reform, economic integration, and demographic issues. The thirty-fifth annual Gulf Cooperation Council summit, held December 10 in Qatar, was probably the most efficient meeting the group has ever held. With the diplomatic schism between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain papered over three weeks earlier, Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani hosted the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as senior substitutes for the ailing leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.
Political Geography:: Kuwait, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

326. Syrian Air Force Operations: Strategic, Effective, and Unrestrained

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Absent more robust international intervention, the regime remains essentially unopposed in the air, allowing it to continue pursuing its strategic objectives and killing civilians with relative impunity. Prior to the ongoing civil war, the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) was never considered a key component of the Syrian military. Routinely bested by the Israeli Air Force and equipped with a mostly aging fleet of Soviet-era aircraft, it was not seen as an important player in the regional military landscape. The war has changed that, however, raising the SAAF to a prominent role in the struggle to preserve the Assad regime. Since spring 2012, air operations have become a strategic element in the conflict, allowing the regime to strike anywhere in the country with virtual impunity, contributing to the opposition's failure to consolidate control of territory, and supporting a wide variety of military operations. Along the way, the air force has been involved in some of the worst regime attacks on civilians. The SAAF's central role in regime preservation and human-rights violations make it a logical and morally justifiable target for foreign intervention, whether in terms of direct allied air operations or enhanced assistance to the opposition.
Political Geography:: Israel and Syria

327. Will the Next Israeli Election Be About Regional Challenges or Netanyahu's Leadership?

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The long-serving prime minister suddenly is no longer the presumptive favorite against a rapidly consolidating opposition, which will likely spur him to shore up his own right-wing base throughout the campaign season.
Political Geography:: Israel

328. Jihadism on the Rise in Europe: The Dutch Perspective

Author:: Rob Bertholee
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An intensive discussion covering the role of the Syria campaign, advances by the new generation of European jihadists, and steps the Dutch government is taking to understand and reduce the problem.
Political Geography:: Europe and Syria

329. Jordan's King Abdullah Comes to Washington

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Friday's meeting offers an opportunity to discuss the kingdom's domestic challenges, the proposed no-fly zone in northern Syria, and the potential ramifications of ramped-up training of Syrian opposition forces on Jordanian territory.
Political Geography:: Washington, Syria, and Jordan

330. Making the Iraqi Revenue-Generating Deal Work

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Leaders in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan have taken a brave step toward reunifying the country through revenue sharing. The United States should support implementation of the deal.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

331. Between ISIS and Iran: Bahrain Tweaks Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid electoral boycotts and continued concerns about ISIS and Iran, King Hamad has reappointed a prime minister whom Washington regards as an impediment to political progress.
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Bahrain

332. What Difference Would an Iran Deal Make?

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Implementing a nuclear agreement will be no easier than reaching one, and Washington will have little influence over what Iran decides to do over time about the deal.
Political Geography:: Iran and Washington

333. Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the purpose of multilateral negotiations with Iran is to reduce proliferation concerns, successful talks may in fact accelerate nuclear plans in the Gulf states and Jordan.
Political Geography:: Iran and Jordan

334. Tunisians Elect a President

Author:: Sarah Feuer
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Regardless of who enters Carthage Palace in January, a free and fair election will represent an achievement worthy of international recognition. On Sunday, November 23, Tunisians will return to the polls to elect a president nearly one month after voting in a new parliament. The parliamentary election, widely praised by international and domestic observers, brought in a legislature dominated by the anti-Islamist Nidaa Tounes (Tunisian Call) Party, which won 85 of the parliament's 217 seats. Tunisia's main Islamist party, Ennahda (Renaissance), came in second place, garnering 69 seats -- a notable decline from the 89 seats it obtained in the 2011 election for a transitional assembly. Three smaller blocs -- the leftist Popular Front coalition, the centrist Free Patriotic Union, and the liberal Afek Tounes (Tunisian Horizon) Party -- will occupy a combined 39 seats, while a host of independents will fill the remaining 24 seats. Against this backdrop, the presidential election will mark another milestone in Tunisia's promising, if precarious, transition to democracy. In a region plagued by failing states, resurgent authoritarianism, and violence, the mere fact that Tunisia is holding a peaceful presidential election should give the United States and the international community reason to celebrate and, more important, lend assistance moving forward.
Political Geography:: United States and Tunisia

335. The New 'Tri-Border' Region: Emerging Threats Along the Israel-Lebanon-Syria Frontier

Author:: Boaz Ganor and Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A detailed discussion of the various factors fueling or constraining chaos on Syria's borders, including Arab tribal politics, Israeli security calculations, Iranian-Hezbollah military strategy, and a seemingly hesitant U.S.-led air campaign.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

336. Policies and Politics Will Test U.S.-Israel Ties

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the Iran deadline approaches, violence flares up in Jerusalem, and respective election cycles ebb and flow, U.S. and Israeli officials will need to work harder than ever to manage bilateral tensions. In the coming weeks, a number of foreign and domestic developments will affect U.S. and Israeli policy, with each potentially testing the already tense bilateral relationship. One key date is November 24, the deadline for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. President Obama has publicly said there is a "big gap" between the parties, making the prospects of a breakthrough unclear, but high-level U.S., EU, and Iranian envoys have completed two days of talks in Oman in a bid to reach such a breakthrough. If a deal is in fact made and the terms are not to Israel's liking, then the war of words with Washington may resume on this very sensitive issue.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Israel, and Oman

337. The 1968 Siege of Sana: A Houthi Historical Parallel

Author:: Asher Orkaby
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Locals tend to perceive today's conflict less as a struggle between external forces than as a continuation of long-running tensions between Zaydi tribal elite and the modern Yemeni state. The beginning of November saw Sana's airport, government buildings, universities, and even major city intersections firmly under the control of the antigovernment Houthi movement. Since the 1990s, the Houthi clan has gained the support of many northern Zadyi tribes, adherents of Yemen's branch of Shia Islam, which comprises around 30 percent of the country's population of 25 million. The attack on Sana caps a decade of armed political struggle between the tribesmen of the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government.
Political Geography:: Yemen

338. Oman Ruler's Failing Health Could Affect U.S. Iran Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The death of Sultan Qaboos with no clear successor would jeopardize U.S.-Iran diplomatic contacts, the latest of which will be the meeting tomorrow in Muscat between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. On November 5, the Omani state television channel broadcast a video of seventy-three-year-old Sultan Qaboos bin Said, currently undergoing medical treatment in Germany. He greeted Omanis in anticipation of their national day, November 18, and expressed regret that he would not be back in Oman for the celebrations. No information has been given on what is wrong with the ruler but, though his voice was strong, he looked emaciated and frail. An unnamed diplomat in Muscat, the Omani capital, had been quoted in August as saying Qaboos has colon cancer.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Germany, and Oman

339. 'Jewish and Democratic': Implications of Israel's Self-Description, at Home and Abroad

Author:: Stuart Eizenstat and Ruth Gavison
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What does it mean for Israel to identify as "both Jewish and democratic?" Watch a discussion with Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat on the hotly debated political, legal, and diplomatic consequences of Israel's core self-definition. On October 31, 2014, Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Gavison is the Haim H. Cohn Professor of Human Rights Law at Hebrew University. Eizenstat co-chairs the board of directors for the Jewish People Policy Institute and has held senior positions in the White House and the Treasury, State, and Commerce Departments. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: Washington and Israel

340. Reflections on Islamism: From the Muslim Brotherhood to the Islamic State

Author:: Shimon Shamir
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's former ambassador to Egypt and Jordan discusses the changing face of Islamism for the Institute's annual lecture in honor of the late Zeev Schiff. In historical terms, Islamism is a modern movement. While its adherents claim that it is a purely indigenous effort to purge foreign elements that have penetrated Islam in the modern period, the irony is that Islamism itself was born of the friction between religious loyalties and modern, Western-dominated realities. From the start, the movement thrived in places where Western power and culture abounded -- many Islamist activists were Western-educated professionals who spent years in Europe or the United States, while many terrorist cells were formed by Muslims living in the cities of Germany, Britain, and Belgium. This Western connection facilitated the absorption of modern methods and instruments, including weaponry, Internet communications, aircraft, banking systems, smartphones, and so forth.
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, Israel, Germany, Belgium, Egypt, and Jordan

341. Responding Effectively to the Military Challenges in Syria

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The moderate rebel force currently envisioned by Washington would take far too long to arrive on the battlefield and could be easy prey for ISIS and Assad. As the Obama administration's plans for raising a moderate Syrian opposition force become clearer, its approach seems to center on a lengthy recruitment, training, and deployment program initially dedicated to defense against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). If carried out, this plan promises a long delay before significant forces are on the battlefield. It would also limit their potential effectiveness in the near to midterm and perhaps commit them to a protracted enterprise in which defeat is likely.
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Syria

342. New Poll Shows Majority of Saudis, Kuwaitis, Emiratis Reject ISIS, Back Two-State Solution with Israel

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A rare poll conducted last month in three Gulf Cooperation Council states demonstrates decisive rejection of ISIS and a surprisingly high level of popular support for peaceful resolution of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict -- but also substantial minority support for both the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
Political Geography:: Kuwait

343. Twenty Years of Israeli-Jordanian Peace: A Brief Assessment

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The treaty's trade and security benefits have been considerable, though many Jordanians continue to reject the likely economic windfall that full normalization could bring. October 26 marks the twentieth anniversary of the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty. Prior to the agreement's signing at Wadi Araba in 1994, the two countries had not fought a war since 1967, and their leaders had been in routine communication since the 1940s. Yet the treaty was far more than just a formalization of a de facto ceasefire -- it fundamentally changed the nature of the Israeli- Jordanian relationship, enhancing security, stability, and U.S. interests in a turbulent region.
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Jordan

344. After the Quartet Statement: Is Abbas the Odd Man Out?

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of the UN speeches and Netanyahu's acceptance of unconditional talks, Abbas now seems to be the odd man out, though renewed Israeli construction in east Jerusalem could alter that dynamic.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Arabia

345. The Palestinian Bid for UN Membership: Rationale, Response, Repercussions

Author:: David Makovsky, Ghaith al-Omari, and Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian decision to appeal to the UN is rooted in frustration with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government and the conviction that negotiations are futile at the moment. Furthermore, they believe that President Obama's efforts, while admirable, will not produce results. These beliefs -- combined with the sense of urgency imparted by the Arab Spring and the growing perception that the Palestinian leadership can no longer back down from the initiative -- makes it likely that they will head to the UN this month as planned.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

346. On the Record: Mourning Usama bin Laden

Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following is a sampling of reactions from various Islamist leaders, commentators, and organizations following the death of Usama bin Laden.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

347. The Muslim Brotherhood: On the Record

Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following sampling of comments by Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt explains the group's position in the current crisis and its attitudes towards the United States, Israel, and the rest of the Arab world.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

348. The Egyptian Military and the Fate of the Regime

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) is perhaps the key actor in the current crisis. Although it has largely remained aloof from the struggle in the streets and has yet to show its hand regarding the fate of the regime, many are counting on it to act in the nation's interest, force President Hosni Mubarak from power, and facilitate a smooth transition to a successor government. This places a great deal of responsibility on the EAF and makes understanding its role in the process essential. Observers inside and outside Egypt should not take for granted that the military will either do "the right thing" or act monolithically. It is an actor with many faces and capacities, and one whose internal motivations and processes can be seen only dimly at the moment.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

349. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

350. Protests in Yemen: President Saleh Promises Change

Author:: Daniel Green
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 2, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, declared that he would not press for a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek another term during the next election, currently scheduled for 2013. He also pledged that he would not pass power to his son, Ahmed, head of the country's Republican Guard. His remarks were apparently intended to preempt a "day of rage" in the capital, Sana, scheduled by opposition groups for February 3. In addition to parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, Washington will be watching with great attention given Yemen's reputation as a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and its supporters.
Topic:: Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

351. On the Record

Author:: Mohammed ElBaradei
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna

352. Egypt's Security Forces: A Key Factor in the Crisis

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The current wave of protests in Egypt has pitted thousands of demonstrators against the police and Central Security Forces (CSF). The performance of these forces is key to the outcome of the crisis. If they can contain the demonstrations without excessive violence, the protests will likely burn themselves out over time. But if the demonstrations continue or escalate into greater violence, the police and CSF could break down, either dissolving entirely or engaging in undisciplined violence that further exacerbates the situation. Such a scenario, or even the likelihood of it, would probably spur the government to deploy army personnel to support the security forces, deter further demonstrations, and, if necessary, put down the protests through force. That would be a true crisis for the government, one with an uncertain outcome.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

353. Will Egypt's 'Day of Rage' Become a Revolution?

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Inspired by events in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets on January 25 in major cities from Alexandria to Cairo, the largest demonstrations to hit the country since the bread riots of the 1970s. The government, which did not initially confront demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square, finally took forceful action to remove them late last night. Today, January 26, the Interior Ministry announced that public gatherings and protests will no longer be tolerated; there were further clashes in Cairo and Suez. More protests are anticipated after Friday prayers (January 28). Will the government's tactics quell the demonstrations or cause them to spread? And what approach should Washington take?
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Washington, Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Cairo

354. The Claim for Recognition of Israel as a Jewish State A Reassessment

Author:: Tal Becker
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid efforts to relaunch and sustain Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Israel's claim for recognition as a Jewish state continues to generate controversy. While Israel's leaders have insisted that such recognition is fundamental to any peace agreement, Palestinian and other Arab leaders have responded to the claim with consistent and widespread antipathy. To begin to explore how this issue might be appropriately addressed in the context of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, it is necessary to place the claim for recognition in its historical, political, and strategic context. We must consider the nature and legitimacy of the interests at stake and examine the alternatives for addressing them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

355. Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Twenty years ago, at the close of the 1991 Gulf War, the imposition of a UN-mandated no-fly zone contributed to the formation of a safe haven for Iraqi Kurds, resulting in the liberation of nearly three million people from Baathist dictatorship a full decade before the rest of Iraq. In 1992, new UN-mandated no-fly and no-drive zones were established in southern Iraq and the Balkans to contain rogue regimes and protect civilians from government repression. Given the current developments in Libya, it is natural to consider employing such options once again. Yet history shows that exclusion zones are particularly tricky operations. If not configured properly, they can be worse than useless, signaling fecklessness instead of resolve while providing little real protective value to civilians.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, United Nations, Balkans, and North Africa

356. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

357. Israel's Strategic Concerns over Upheaval in Egypt

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt caught Israel by surprise. Awe-inspiring as they are to Israel's government and people, these revolutions and the ongoing troubles in Bahrain and Libya are also of immense concern to Israel because of their potential strategic ramifications. Going forward, developments in Egypt will be particularly important given Cairo's traditional role in the region and the special nature of its diplomatic, security, and economic relations with Israel.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Israel, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia

358. Saudi Arabia's Fears for Bahrain

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 16, Bahraini security forces used brute force to clear democracy protestors from Manama's Pearl Square, on orders from a regime seemingly undaunted by international media coverage and the near-instantaneous self-reporting of Twitter-generation demonstrators. Although the relatively small size of the crowds (compared to recent protests in Egypt and Tunisia) facilitated the crackdown, the action is best explained by the regime's long-held mindset regarding dissent. Specifically, the Bahraini ruling elite believe that any political challenge by the island's Shiite majority must be quickly suppressed -- a view backed by the royal family in neighboring Saudi Arabia and violently enforced in Bahrain despite significant Sunni participation in the protests. This Saudi factor, and the looming presence of Iran across the Persian Gulf, elevates the Bahrain crisis to a U.S. policy challenge on par with events in Egypt.
Topic:: Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Island, and Tunisia

359. 'The Last Bullet': Qadhafi and the Future of Libya

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last bullet," which suggests even more horrific levels of violence and anarchy. In a rambling television broadcast today, February 22, the colonel pledged to "die as a martyr."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

360. Dubai: On the Front Line of U.S. Iran Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Willingly or not, Dubai has been thrust onto the front line of diplomacy aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions and terrorism sponsorship. The January 20, 2010, assassination of Hamas gunrunner Mahmoud al-Mabhouh on its soil was a reminder of the emirate's longstanding trade and commercial links with Iran -- he was reportedly there to purchase Iranian rockets for Hamas units in Gaza. For years, U.S. authorities have been pressuring Dubai for more restrictions on Iranian trade passing through its ports, as well as increased controls on Iranians traveling to and living in the emirate. The ongoing Mabhouh investigation has shown that, given the requisite political will, Dubai has excellent surveillance capabilities and other attributes that could be used against Iran.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Gaza, and Dubai

361. New Multilateral Consensus Emerges on Iran

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A February 18 report from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the Paris-based organization that sets global standards for combating money laundering and terrorism financing, revealed new details about Iran's ongoing activities in both realms. The same day, a new report from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reached disturbing conclusions about Iran's past nuclear efforts while raising intriguing questions about technical problems the regime may be encountering. As global powers debate a fourth round of UN sanctions on Iran, these reports demonstrate growing international consensus on the nature of Iran's illicit conduct.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

362. From Jerusalem to Ramallah: Agenda 2010

Author:: David Makovsky, Robert Satloff, and Jacob Walles
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The absence of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations over the past year is both surprising and troubling given the high priority President Obama assigned to resolving the conflict. The failure to resume talks stems largely from a lack of urgency on both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries

363. The Long Arm of Lashkar-e-Taiba

Author:: Stephen Tankel
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his February 2 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair highlighted the growing danger posed by Pakistani militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Calling the group a "special case," he asserted that it is "becoming more of a direct threat and is placing Western targets in Europe in its sights." He also expressed concern that it could "actively embrace" a more anti-Western agenda. Given its global capabilities with regard to fundraising, logistics, support, and operations, LeT could pose a serious threat to U.S. interests. Consequently, weakening it should be a high priority for Washington.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

364. Setback for Iran's Opposition: Khamenei's Hardline Reinforced

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A few hours after the official demonstration marking the February 11 anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated, "Was the presence of tens of millions of motivated and aware people in the festival of the thirty-first anniversary of revolution enough to awaken [to their mistakes] the internal enemies and deceived individuals who sometimes hypocritically speak of 'the people'?" Khamenei had spent months worrying that the opposition Green Movement would hijack the anniversary. Yesterday, he seemed to regain his self-confidence by proving that he could manage Tehran's streets. In light of this development, how will the Supreme Leader deal with both Iran's political crisis and the nuclear dossier?
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

365. How to Assess Political Fissures in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji, David Cvach, and Ali Alfoneh
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The means for assessing political fissures in Iran are by nature very limited and have become even more so since the June 12, 2009, election. Independent studies and data on the Iranian public, such as opinion polling, are sparse and not useful, and the Iranian press follows very strict red lines in discussing politics. Western diplomats in Iran are also restrained from understanding the political environment due to the oppressively formal nature of relations with Iranian officials, who rarely discuss sensitive issues with their Western counterparts. The latter are thus forced to gather information anecdotally, in private meetings with business leaders, cultural elites, and journalists -- hardly a sufficient sample of Iranian society.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

366. Khamenei and the Politics of Indecision

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is the most important official holiday in Iran. The public faces of the opposition Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, have called for street demonstrations to mark the occasion. Meanwhile, government officials at every level have warned against such protests, threatening tough action against any participants. In this tense atmosphere, what are the prospects that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will agree to political compromise?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Islam
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

367. Serious Play: War Games Explore Options on Iran

Author:: Jeffrey White and Loring White
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What if Iran's hardline leadership emerges from the current confrontations at home strengthened and emboldened? If so, the nuclear issue will be back with a vengeance. And three recent war games focused on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue suggest that the prospects for halting the regime's progress toward nuclear weapons are not good.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

368. Actions, Not Just Attitudes: A New Way to Assess U.S.-Arab Relations

Author:: David Pollock and Marc Lynch
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Public opinion polls and the media tell us that Arabs disliked the George W. Bush administration and have high hopes for President Barack Obama. Indeed, the new administration enjoyed majority Arab approval ratings throughout 2009 (up to 50 percentage points higher than his predecessor), while the overall U.S. image in Arab countries also recovered significantly. Yet the question remains: what is the record of actual Arab behavior toward the United States? This question was the starting point of the forthcoming study, which presents a new model for understanding U.S.-Arab relations since the Clinton administration -- one that emphasizes actions much more than attitudes.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Arabia

369. Beirut Spring: The Hariri Tribunal Goes Hunting for Hizballah

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week in Beirut, the United Nations Special Tribunal charged with investigating and prosecuting the killers of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri brought six members of Hizballah in for questioning. The tribunal's decision to interview Hizballah in connection with the 2005 murder appears to confirm a 2009 report in Der Speigel -- corroborated more recently by Le Monde -- implicating the Shiite militia in the conspiracy. A shift in the short-term focus of the investigation from Syria to Hizballah will have a profound impact on domestic politics in Lebanon, and potentially on U.S.-Lebanese relations.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and Lebanon

370. Biden's Israel Visit and Its Aftermath: The Importance of Maintaining Strategic Direction in U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In less than forty-eight hours, U.S.-Israel relations went from "unbreakable," according to Vice President Joe Biden, to "perilous," as ascribed to an "unnamed senior U.S. official." This drastic mood swing risks overshadowing the great achievement of the vice president's Middle East trip -- the affirmation for Israelis (as well as those Arabs and Iranians following his words) that the Obama administration is "determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons."
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

371. Disrupting Iran's Illicit Activities

Author:: Steven Pelak
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, calls for additional sanctions against Iran and increased prosecutions of violators have highlighted the need for effective enforcement mechanisms. Although enhanced sanctions may be valuable, they will have little effect if there is no penalty for violations. As part of its effort to reinforce sanctions regulations and ensure that U.S. national security interests are preserved, the Justice Department has sought to disable Iranian procurement networks that may involve U.S. companies, citizens, or goods.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Washington

372. Enhancing International Cooperation against Terrorism Financing

Author:: David Cohen
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The international community faces a daunting challenge in confronting global terrorism financing. The task is especially tough in today's environment, with money constantly crossing borders and rocketing around the globe. The Treasury Department's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) plays a unique role in this arena, facilitating efforts on many fronts, both domestically and abroad. The Middle East remains the primary focus of these efforts, particularly Iran and al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

373. Gaza Border Tensions: A Drift toward War?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The March 26 clash between elements of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Golani Brigade and Palestinian operatives near the Gaza border was the most serious since the end of Operation Cast Lead in January 2009. The incident has exacerbated tensions -- already on the rise due to increased rocket attacks on southern Israel -- and added to concerns that another Gaza war is looming. Neither Hamas nor Israel has a clear interest in renewing large-scale hostilities, but the dynamics of the border conflict point toward escalation. The two sides did not necessarily want a war in December 2008 either, but it came anyway.
Topic:: War and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

374. Israel as the 'National Homeland of the Jewish People': Looking Back and Ahead

Author:: Tal Becker and Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A great deal of misinformation and disinformation surrounds Israel's desire to be recognized as a Jewish state. In practice, the concept refers to acknowledgment of the Jewish people's right to self-determination in the land of Israel, also known as Zionism. The land does not necessarily encompass what many call "Greater Israel," which includes the West Bank, or deny the right to self-determination of neighboring Palestinians, who deserve a state of their own. The issue of Israel's recognition as a Jewish state has grown in prominence in the last year as Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has made it a point of emphasis.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

375. Too Little, Too Late? Nuclear Security and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson, George Perkovich, and Gregory Schulte
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A year ago in Prague, President Obama warned that nuclear terrorism poses "the most immediate and extreme threat to global security." Accordingly, he vowed to lead an international effort to "secure all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world in four years." The Nuclear Security Summit is intended to advance that goal
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Vienna

376. Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Power in the Middle East

Author:: Daniel Poneman
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The president...continues to work...to tackle the energy and climate challenge, understanding that this is a global problem that demands a global solution.... Some have suggested that a United States that is focusing on new energy technologies and a low-carbon future must be at odds with the oil and gas producers of the Middle East. [However], recent discussions in the region suggest otherwise.... Tackling the energy and climate challenge presents important opportunities to broaden U.S. energy relationships in the region, and together [with regional partners] to build a sustainable energy future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

377. What is the Purpose of the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organizations List?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The United States maintains a range of "terrorist lists," of which the Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list is one of the better known. But in two recent court cases, the U.S. government has offered arguments that raise questions about the purpose of the list.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

378. Analyzing the New UN Sanctions Proposal on Iran

Author:: Patrick Clawson, Jeffrey White, and Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The May 18 draft resolution proposing additional sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear program is backed by all five permanent members of the UN Security Council. Although this unanimity is the proposal's principal strength, it comes at the cost of making the draft weaker in some sections than ideas discussed previously by the Obama administration. The following is an analysis of some of the resolution's key elements.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran and Central Asia

379. Iran Gets Negative Reviews in Iraq, Even from Shiites

Author:: David Pollock and Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two months after nationwide elections, Iraq's government formation process is still on hold. The final voting results have yet to be announced as disputes over recounts and candidate disqualifications linger. Nor is it clear how a governing majority will be formed, and power shared, among the four major party alliances, each of which garnered somewhere between 16 percent and 28 percent of the vote: the Kurdish bloc and its affiliates; the largely Sunni or secular Iraqiyah party led by a former prime minister of Shiite origin, Ayad Allawi; incumbent prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's largely Shiite State of Law Alliance (SLA); and SLA's rival Shiite/Sadrist list, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a coalition that includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Central Asia

380. Lessons from the Iran Nuclear Developments

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the fluid situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program, perhaps the safest bet is to expect more surprises. Despite the promising draft circulated on May 19, it is not clear how meaningful a sanctions resolution adopted by the UN Security Council will be, even if it is adopted soon. Nor is it clear how vigorously Brazil and Turkey will pursue the trilateral agreement that the two countries reached with Iran on May 16. All the same, important lessons can be drawn from this week's developments.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, and Brazil

381. The New British Government, the 'Special Relationship,' and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 6, Britain went to the polls to elect a new government, producing no clear result but forcing the resignation of Labor Party leader Gordon Brown. Within hours of taking over as prime minister, Conservative Party leader David Cameron had created a new body, a British national security council, whose first meeting focused on "discuss[ing] the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and review[ing] the terrorist threat to the UK." Apart from Britain's economic problems, these issues and Middle East policy in general will likely dominate the new government's agenda -- and its relations with Washington.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Terrorism, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, Washington, and Middle East

382. Hizballah's Coalition Partner Meets President Obama

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Monday, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri will visit Washington for a meeting with President Obama. In announcing the meeting, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs called it "a symbol of the close and historic relationship between Lebanon and the United States." Indeed, between 2005 and 2009, bilateral ties were never closer or more consequential, with the Cedar Revolution ending nearly three decades of Syrian suzerainty in the country. Over the past year, however, Hariri has had to govern in coalition with Hizballah. The Iranian-Syrian backed Shiite militia will be the elephant in the Oval Office during Monday's meeting.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Lebanon

383. The Origins of the U.S.-Israeli Relationship: Truman and the Jewish State

Author:: Allis Radosh and Ronald Radosh
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Harry Truman became president in April 1945, he had not thought deeply about the exact form a Jewish national home in historic Palestine would or should take. Following his landmark decision to recognize the state of Israel in May 1948, he would suggest that his support for such a development had been unwavering, and that his decisions had come easily. Yet the record shows otherwise. Between Truman's first days as president and Israel's formation, his approach to the idea of a Jewish state evolved significantly, at times seeming to change in response to the last person with whom he met. Although he ultimately made the historic decision, a Jewish state had never been, in his mind, a foregone conclusion.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, New York, Middle East, and Israel

384. Proximity Talks: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace George Mitchell is currently in Jerusalem amid wide expectation that on Saturday the Palestinians will approve proximity talks with Israel. For its part, Israel has already agreed to the talks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

385. Changing the Paradigm of U.S. Assistance to Egypt: Alternatives to the 'Endowment' Idea

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently leaked documents detail an exchange between Washington and Cairo regarding the future of U.S. economic assistance to Egypt. The documents indicate that the Obama administration has welcomed Cairo's idea of ending traditional assistance in favor of creating a new endowment, "The Egyptian-American Friendship Foundation." This idea has a long, checkered history and, if implemented, will be bad for both American taxpayers and the Egyptian people. The administration should work with Egypt to craft alternatives that advance common objectives, including democratic reform.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Egypt

386. Dangerous Alliance: Escalating Ties between Terrorist Groups and Criminal Activity

Author:: David Johnson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While our discussion today will focus on Middle Eastern terrorist groups' links to criminal activity, it is important to bear in mind that the threat of terror and the origins of terrorist groups spans beyond any single region. Moreover, terrorist groups' links to criminal activity is not a new phenomenon. In the '70s and '80s, for example, groups like the Red Army Faction, the Red Brigades and the domestic Symbionese Liberation Army financed violent terrorism with violent crimes like bank robbery.
Topic:: Crime, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Arabia

387. The Iranian Opposition, the Nuclear Issue, and the West

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of Iran's June 2009 presidential election and the development of an opposition movement, analysts are confronted with two questions: What impact will international diplomacy regarding the nuclear issue have on Iran's domestic politics? And what impact will Iran's domestic politics have on the issues of most concern to the international community? The newly released Washington Institute report Much Traction from Measured Steps offers good, bad, and mixed answers.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

388. Renewed Violence against Egypt's Coptic Christians

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 6 -- Christmas Eve according to the Eastern Orthodox calendar -- six Coptic Christians and a policeman were killed in a drive-by shooting while exiting church in Naga Hammadi, Upper Egypt. The attack, which came in retaliation to an alleged rape of a twelve-year-old Muslim girl by a Christian man, was the largest assault on Copts in Egypt since a January 2000 massacre left twenty dead in Sohag. The days since the shooting have been marked by violent clashes and the burning of Christian and Muslim property. These developments have unfolded against the background of increased political pressure on Islamists -- evoking the 1990s, when the killing of Copts by Islamist militants was a routine occurrence and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) was banned from political participation. Thus, while Naga Hammadi might be an isolated incident, it could also presage the return of Egypt's Islamists to the bloody sectarian attacks of the 1990s.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

389. Prospects for the Resumption of Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell will return to the region next week in a bid to restart talks that have been stalled since the beginning of the Obama administration. In a television interview earlier this month, Mitchell declared that he would like to complete peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians within two years, if not sooner. Senior U.S. officials, including President Obama, have called for an unconditional return to the negotiating table. The official position of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is that talks cannot resume until Israel extends its settlement moratorium to east Jerusalem. He also wants the pre-1967 boundaries to serve as the baseline for negotiations. At the same time, he has made a statement indicating that he regrets how he reached his current position, hinting that the current impasse does not serve the Palestinian people's interests. Is there more convergence between the two sides than is readily apparent?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

390. Al-Qaeda in the West Bank and Gaza

Author:: Bruce Riedel and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian terrorist groups have long operated out of the West Bank and Gaza. What is new is that some radicalized Palestinians are choosing to engage in violence not through established domestic groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, but rather through groups that aspire to be part of al-Qaeda's global jihad. While most Palestinian terrorist organizations are nationalist -- or, in the case of Hamas, Islamist-nationalist -- and limit their operations to the Israeli-Palestinian front, the Salafi-Jihadi ideology professed by these new groups offers a broader agenda, one based not on a particular nationality but instead on the Muslim umma (nation).
Topic:: Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza

391. Saudi Public Backs Iran Sanctions but Split on Military Action

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A highly unusual and credible private poll of Saudi citizens taken in late November 2009 by a reputable regional firm shows solid popular support for tough measures against Iran, even though domestic economic issues loom larger in the public's perception. Conducted in partnership with Pechter Middle East Polls, a new, Princeton-based research organization, the survey involved face-to-face interviews with a representative sample of 1,000 Saudi citizens in the major metropolitan areas of Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam/al-Khobar. A comparable poll was conducted in Egypt during the same period, with a representative national sample of 1,000.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

392. Fighting al-Qaeda: The Role of Yemen's President Saleh

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yemen's reemergence in the headlines as a crucial player in the fight against al-Qaeda raises questions about Washington's next steps. What sort of relationship will the Obama administration have with President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the longtime leader of what could be the world's next failed state? Saleh spoke with President Barack Obama by telephone on December 17, 2009, and later met in Sana with General David Petreaus, the head of U.S. Central Command, on January 2. But the lessons of Saleh's relationship with the Bush administration suggest that close ties can be matched by sharp policy differences.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

393. Strengthening Yemeni Counterterrorism Forces: Challenges and Political Considerations

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 2, 2010, President Barack Obama confirmed that he had "made it a priority to strengthen our partnership with the Yemeni government -- training and equipping their security forces, sharing intelligence and working with them to strike al-Qaeda terrorists." Increasing military aid to Sana will involve a delicate balancing act. On the one hand, the United States has a strong interest in degrading al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to prevent them from attacking U.S. interests in Yemen, strategic sea lanes, or international targets. On the other hand, in this weak and divided country, significant segments of Yemen's security forces are used for internal repression, and parts of the intelligence system are sympathetic to Islamic militancy, raising the prospect that U.S. aims could be undermined.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

394. Arming Hizballah? U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The August 3 fatal shooting of an Israel Defense Forces officer by a Lebanese Armed Forces soldier has sparked debate regarding the utility and wisdom of the U.S. military assistance program to Lebanon. Although such assistance is not new, the program's scope dramatically increased after the 2005 Cedar Revolution ended Syria's thirty-year occupation and swept the Arab world's only pro-Western, democratically elected government to power. In recent months, however, Syrian influence has returned, while Hizballah has secured enough political power to effectively reverse many of the revolution's gains. Even before the August 3 incident, these changes on the ground prompted Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, to place a hold on the 2011 assistance package.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Lebanon, and Syria

395. Ahmadinezhad's Bomb Rhetoric: Opportunities for U.S. Policy

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 31, according to Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency, presidential chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai claimed that the West had raised no objections to President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's open proclamation that the Islamic Republic could build a nuclear bomb. How should this surprising claim be interpreted? And what implications might it hold for Iran's domestic politics, especially when viewed alongside Ahmadinezhad's history of confrontational rhetoric?
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

396. The East Asian Loophole in Iran Sanctions: Encouraging Compliance by Our Allies and China

Author:: Christina Lin
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Starting in August, U.S. officials are visiting East Asia, Latin America, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to garner support for tightening Iran sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1929. Robert Einhorn, the U.S. State Department's special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, and Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary of the treasury for terrorist financing and financial crime, started with a trip to Japan and South Korea and are planning a trip to China in late August. On July 29, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing entitled "Implementation of Iran Sanctions" in which both Einhorn and Glaser expressed concern over China's compliance, with Einhorn emphasizing the "need for [China] not to 'backfill' when responsible countries have distanced themselves from Iran."
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Israel, Latin America, and United Arab Emirates

397. Egypt in Transition: Presidential Succession and U.S. Policy

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's recent health scares -- including major surgery in Germany in March --have raised critical questions regarding the future of one of America's most important allies. In the event of his death, how would his successor be chosen, and who would it most likely be? Will the next president respect core U.S interests or challenge them? And how would the United States advance those interests in post-Mubarak Egypt? To reflect on these questions, The Washington Institute's Project Fikra recently brought together leading scholars, former senior U.S. diplomats, and other officials and activists for an off-the-record discussion on what to expect from Egyptian succession. Much of this PolicyWatch is based on that discussion.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Egypt

398. Fighting the Ideological Battle: The Missing Link in America's Effort to Counter Violent Extremism

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter, Matthew Levitt, and Juan Zarate
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Many of the functional and structural recommendations of the Institute's March 2009 bipartisan task force have since been adopted by the Obama administration, and remarkable progress has been made in certain areas. Nevertheless, more must be done to combat radical Islamism, particularly given the recent acceleration of homegrown radicalization. Proving that ideology recognizes no borders, the global threat of violent Islamism has come home. This new study recognizes the important steps the Obama administration has taken to address violent extremism and suggests ways to advance counterradicalization efforts even further.
Topic:: Islam and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

399. The Gaza Flotilla Incident: Impact on Three Key Arab Actors

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following summary is part two of Robert Satloff's presentation to a June 18, 2010, Washington Institute Policy Forum on the impact of the Gaza flotilla incident. Part one, issued yesterday as PolicyWatch #1670 , focused on implications for U.S. policy. For full audio of the event, which also included presentations by Michael Eisenstadt, Soner Cagaptay, and David Makovsky, click here. The Gaza flotilla episode pitted Israel versus Turkey, with Arabs as bystanders and observers. Yet reverberations of the incident have had a keen impact across Arab capitals.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

400. The Gaza Flotilla Incident: Implications for Middle East Politics and U.S. Policy

Author:: David Makovsky, Michael Eisenstadt, Robert Satloff, and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although a full narrative will have to wait until the ongoing Israeli inquiry is complete, it is possible to sketch the outlines of what happened on the Turkish ferry Mavi Marmara . The six boats of the "Free Gaza Flotilla" departed Turkey on May 28, and Israeli naval vessels began shadowing them two days later, around 11:00 p.m. on May 30. At that time, Israel requested that the boats divert to Ashdod to allow inspection of their cargo for contraband, but they refused to comply.
Topic:: Political Violence, International Law, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

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