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1. Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya

Author:
Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Conference
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Germany, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, Berlin, and United States of America

2. Israel and the UAE on Iran: Shared Foe, Different Perspectives

Author:
Danny Citrinowicz
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given past developments, the UAE’s and Israel’s recent announcement of normalization in exchange for shelving annexation plans should come as no great surprise, even if the timing was unexpected. There remains, however, frequently understated differences between one aspect of this relationship often assumed to be a common denominator: Jerusalem’s and Abu Dhabi’s perspectives on Iran. Understanding and accommodating these differences will be critical issue for a lasting relationship between the two countries, with the Israeli government in particular needing to acknowledge the differences as well as similarities between the two sides. It is no secret that Israel and the UAE see Iran as a common enemy; both countries have worked together covertly for years to prevent Iranian hegemony in the Gulf and Middle East at large. Since the beginning of their unofficial relationship several decades ago, the two countries have improved their intelligence-sharing and military relations, strengthened their diplomatic ties behind the scenes, and worked to improve their readiness for Iranian threats across the board. President Trump’s recent decisions to withdraw troops from parts of the Middle East region and the world at large have further catalyzed development of Israel-UAE relations in anticipation of weakened direct support from the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Gulf Nations
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United Arab Emirates

3. Avoiding Assad's Forced Solution to the Syria Crisis

Author:
Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given that Assad and his backers want to gut the transition process called for in the Geneva Communique, Washington should plan to take other steps in parallel to the Geneva process.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Geneva, Britain, United States, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, France, London, Germany, Saudi Arabia, United Nations, Italy, Syria, Switzerland, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

4. The GCC in 2015: Domestic Security Trumps Regional Integration

Author:
Karen E. Young
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The conservative Gulf Arab states are functioning more cohesively again after a year of diplomatic tensions, but questions persist about political reform, economic integration, and demographic issues. The thirty-fifth annual Gulf Cooperation Council summit, held December 10 in Qatar, was probably the most efficient meeting the group has ever held. With the diplomatic schism between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain papered over three weeks earlier, Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani hosted the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as senior substitutes for the ailing leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.
Political Geography:
Kuwait, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

5. The East Asian Loophole in Iran Sanctions: Encouraging Compliance by Our Allies and China

Author:
Christina Lin
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Starting in August, U.S. officials are visiting East Asia, Latin America, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to garner support for tightening Iran sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1929. Robert Einhorn, the U.S. State Department's special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control, and Daniel Glaser, deputy assistant secretary of the treasury for terrorist financing and financial crime, started with a trip to Japan and South Korea and are planning a trip to China in late August. On July 29, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform held a hearing entitled "Implementation of Iran Sanctions" in which both Einhorn and Glaser expressed concern over China's compliance, with Einhorn emphasizing the "need for [China] not to 'backfill' when responsible countries have distanced themselves from Iran."
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Israel, Latin America, and United Arab Emirates

6. PolicyWatch #1402: The Persian Gulf's 'Occupied Territory': The Three-Island Dispute

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last month, Tehran announced it was building maritime offices on the Persian Gulf island of Abu Musa, reigniting the long-standing territorial dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since 1970, the disagreement over the island and the neighboring Greater and Lesser Tunbs has been mired in legal uncertainty and historical claims and counterclaims, hindering diplomatic relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states. The recent diplomatic intensity surrounding the issue, however, including the UAE's August 21 formal protest to UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon, is a significant break from the past, and may be a forerunner to a future escalation. Considering the importance of the islands -- all three are strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil passes daily -- the dispute's outcome is deeply tied to the interests of the United States and the international community.
Topic:
Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Arabia, Island, United Arab Emirates, and Persia

7. Map Wars: The UAE Reclaims Lost Territory from Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After years of quiet diplomatic frustration, the oil-rich Persian Gulf federated state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has publicly reopened a dispute with neighboring Saudi Arabia over two parts of their common border. A map in the 2006 edition of the official UAE Yearbook shows the UAE extending westward as far as Qatar, across territory currently controlled by Saudi Arabia. (The map in the 2005 edition does not show this.) Less obvious, but also depicted, is a southern border that extends to include most of the Shaybah Oil Field, Saudi Arabia's newest oil production area.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

8. The Broader Threat from Sunni Islamists in the Gulf

Author:
Michael Knights and Anna Soloman-Schwartz
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 14, 2004, Bahraini security forces arrested seven suspected terrorists accused of planning "to carry out bombings on some government, economic, and tourist facilities to spread chaos and fear and harm the national economy and foreign investments." The arrests targeted a group of Sunni radicals of the extremist Salafi sect who had received their religious training in Saudi Arabia. This development marks an important geographical expansion of the terrorist threat in the Persian Gulf. It also highlights the potential for an emerging nexus between radical Islamist overspill from Saudi Arabia and a growing sense of Sunni disentitlement and traditionalist backlash in the modernizing smaller Gulf states.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

9. The GCC Militaries Since Desert Storm: An Assessment

Author:
Michael P. Moskowitz
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush touch down in Kuwait on Sunday, celebrations scheduled to commemorate the expulsion of Saddam Husayn's forces ten years ago will also—albeit less explicitly—recognize the more robust state of Gulf militaries. A decade after Operation Desert Storm, each of the six states comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—possess armed forces that are not just more modern, but larger than ever before.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates