Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Palestine / Topic: Conflict Resolution

1. The Claim for Recognition of Israel as a Jewish State A Reassessment

Author:: Tal Becker
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid efforts to relaunch and sustain Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Israel's claim for recognition as a Jewish state continues to generate controversy. While Israel's leaders have insisted that such recognition is fundamental to any peace agreement, Palestinian and other Arab leaders have responded to the claim with consistent and widespread antipathy. To begin to explore how this issue might be appropriately addressed in the context of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, it is necessary to place the claim for recognition in its historical, political, and strategic context. We must consider the nature and legitimacy of the interests at stake and examine the alternatives for addressing them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

2. From Jerusalem to Ramallah: Agenda 2010

Author:: David Makovsky, Robert Satloff, and Jacob Walles
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The absence of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations over the past year is both surprising and troubling given the high priority President Obama assigned to resolving the conflict. The failure to resume talks stems largely from a lack of urgency on both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries

3. Beyond Settlements: U.S. Policy Options Going Forward

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Having raised Arab expectations months ago with the idea of a settlement freeze, the Obama administration now has the unpleasant task of coaxing Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas to tacitly accept an agreement on settlements that offers less than expected -- if more than was offered in the past. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the United States will succeed at arranging a trilateral summit involving President Barack Obama, President Abbas, and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the UN next week that would culminate in the announcement of a formal relaunching of peace negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

4. Rejectionists Readying to Counter U.S. Peace Push

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With rumors in the air of a U.S.-brokered, mid-September meeting between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, various regional actors are busy positioning themselves for the coming round of diplomacy. Analysis of these dynamics provides some useful perspective on the road ahead, beyond the usual focus on the minutiae of settlement construction, prisoner exchanges, or other immediate concerns.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

5. Fatah Congress: Will New Resolutions Mean a New Direction?

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At its recently concluded General Congress, Fatah established a new political program that will affect both its terms of reengagement with Israel and its relations with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Fatah's new constraints on negotiations with Israel, however, may harm Mahmoud Abbas -- PA president and the party's top leader -- who needs to respond positively to international peace initiatives that may conflict with the organization's new rules of engagement. Abbas might ignore these congressional decisions, believing its program is intended only for internal consumption to fend off the accusations of the party's hardline members. Fatah's renewed efforts to reunite the West Bank and Gaza could lead to an escalation with Hamas, since many observers doubt unity can be achieved peacefully.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, Power Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

6. Reality Contradicts New Hamas Spin

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Stephanie Papa
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent interviews, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal has offered to cooperate with U.S. efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, indicated a willingness to implement an immediate and reciprocal ceasefire with Israel, and stated that the militant group would accept and respect a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But the conciliatory tone of this hardline Hamas leader, who has personally been tied to acts of terrorism and is himself a U.S.-designated terrorist, is belied by the group's continued violent actions and radicalization on the ground, as well as the rise to prominence of violent extremist leaders within the group's local Shura (consultative) councils. Hamas's activities of late appear to be diametrically opposed to the compliance of Mashal's statements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

7. PolicyWatch #1337: Egypt Working to Contain Gaza

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egypt has been scrambling to formulate a new policy toward the Gaza Strip this week after being challenged by Hamas, which opened more than eleven crossings along the Israeli-constructed wall that serves as the Egypt-Gaza border. Up to 750,000 Palestinians have flooded the northeastern corner of the Sinai Peninsula since January 23, spending approximately $130 million in local markets, while tens of thousands of Egyptians took advantage of the lack of immigration, customs, and security controls to cross into Gaza. This massive movement of people caught many by surprise and may have serious ramifications for Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinians.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

8. Next Steps in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli-Palestinian political landscape has been rather bleak over the last several years. Between 2000-2004, the second intifada brought almost unremitting terror and violence. Despite Israel's pullout from Gaza in the summer of 2005, the parliamentary victory of the rejectionist Hamas party in January 2006 contributed to this downward trend.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

9. Hamas's Victory: From Gaza to Mecca

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As recently as December, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas refused to back a proposal for a unity government offered by Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) member and head of the Independent Palestine list Mustafa Barghouti. That deal was based on the concept of a technocratic compromise under which Hamas officials would not have held the prime ministership or led any ministries. Yet under the terms of the February 8 Mecca accord, the current prime minister, Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, will stay on as head of the next government, and the only portfolios Hamas members specifically will not hold are the finance, foreign affairs, and interior ministries, which will be headed by independents acceptable to both sides. The key question then is why Fatah settled for a unity agreement in February that provided it far less gains than previous unity proposals rejected by Abbas.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mecca

10. Lessons and Consequences of the Israel-Hizballah War: An Early Assessment

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 25, 2006, Jeffrey White, David Makovsky, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White is the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute and the coauthor, with Michael Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. David Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. He, like Jeffrey White, recently returned from a trip to Israel. Dennis Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

11. Abbas, Hamas, and the Referendum Trap

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's pursuit of a referendum on the Palestinian National Accord has been widely interpreted by commentators and reporters as a power play designed to circumvent the Hamas-led government and force it to implicitly accept Israel's existence. But while the process of conducting a referendum -- the legality of which remains questionable -- would shift power away from the government and the legislature, the actual text of the document, which a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails negotiated, more closely resembles the political program of Hamas than that of Abbas. Moreover, Hamas has recovered from its initial surprise at the referendum initiative and has mounted an effective response, first by challenging the legality of a referendum, then by dragging Abbas into negotiations over the substance of the Accord. Despite a possible compromise that may emerge in coming days and shift the composition of the government or modify the language of the Accord, Hamas has used the internal Palestinian debate over a referendum to secure its internal legitimacy and advance many of its governing priorities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12. The Palestinian National Accord: Consensus at Any Cost

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi and Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas's surprise May 25 announcement that he would call for a national referendum should Palestinian factions fail to reach agreement during their national dialogue was wrongly interpreted as a peace plan by many in the press. The document Abbas threatened to put to a popular vote is intended to quell the daily gun battles, kidnappings, and assassination attempts among rival armed groups in Gaza. However, since each party will interpret the document to affirm its own interests, the vague language on relations with Israel could be interpreted either as advocating a one-state solution that would eliminate prospects for peace or as recognizing a two-state solution. Abbas and Fatah may view the “national accord,” negotiated earlier in May among prominent prisoners in Israeli jails, as a means of forcing Hamas into a corner on negotiating with Israel, but the text of the document much more closely resembles Hamas's own political program. (Read an English translation of the national accord in PDF format).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

13. Empowering Mahmoud Abbas after Disengagement

Author:: Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Empowering Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and fellow moderates at this critical time may be in the interest of everyone who favors a return to peace negotiations, but Abbas himself faces immense challenges to his authority that make him unlikely to be able to implement significant changes in the four months left before Palestinian legislative elections in January. The weakened position Abbas inherited included limited control over security forces, paralyzing rivalries within the Fatah movement that limit any support for difficult decisions, and an increasingly assertive Hamas that constantly flaunts its ability to act independently. None of these sources of Abbas's weakness is likely to change significantly in the coming months. And, despite Abbas's intentions to establish law and order and begin economic revitalization in Gaza as articulated in a speech delivered on September 13, the chaos exhibited along the border at Rafah and in the old Israeli settlements immediately after the Israeli withdrawal demonstrates just how difficult his task will be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

14. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

15. Encouraging a Tougher PA Response to the Hamas Challenge

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's July 22-24 visit to the Israeli-Palestinian scene came amid critical domestic challenges to the Palestinian leadership against the backdrop of imminent Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, scheduled to begin August 15. In an unprecedented step, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas recently demonstrated the will to enforce his policy of nonviolence on Hamas and curb the group's efforts to become an alternative armed authority. Given his precarious vacillation between appeasement and enforcement, the international community should encourage Abbas to continue down the latter path and provide him with practical support toward that end.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

16. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

17. Shaykh Yassin and Hamas Terror

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Responding to Monday's assassination of Hamas founder Shaykh Ahmed Yassin, Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qurei stated, "Yassin is known for his moderation, and he was controlling the Hamas" from being more radical. Though frequently called the group's "moderate" leader, Yassin has been directly implicated in authorizing, directing, funding, and providing foot soldiers for Hamas terrorist operations. In August 2003 concrete evidence of such activity led the United States to list Yassin and five other Hamas leaders as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. In so doing, the U.S. government froze the assets of these leaders and banned U.S. nationals from engaging in transactions with them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

18. Hamas Ceasefire Proposal: Peace or Pause?

Author:: Jeff Cary
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Has the radical Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas adopted a new, more moderate view on peace with Israel? In recent months, elite news organizations -- from the Economist to National Public Radio -- have highlighted interviews by Hamas leaders such as founder Shaykh Ahmed Yassin suggesting a willingness on the part of the organization to negotiate a "long-term truce" with Israel. On December 1, 2003, Yassin declared that Hamas was "ready to reach or to go with this enemy [Israel] into a long-term . . . truce. But the enemy . . . must pull out from all the Palestinian territories and . . . remove all shapes and kinds of occupation."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

19. Terror At the Hajj

Author:: Anna Robinowitz
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the two million Muslims participating in this year's Hajj in Mecca were a relatively small number of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. While the vast majority of these pilgrims devoted all of their time in Mecca to religious purposes, others participated in meetings with terrorist operatives as well. Indeed, Hamas, Hizballah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have all attempted to recruit future terrorists -- particularly from the coveted Israeli Arab pool -- during the Hajj and lesser pilgrimages to Mecca (or 'umrah). For example, over the past two-and-a-half years, Israeli security forces have arrested two Hizballah terrorists recruited during the Hajj and seven other terrorists recruited while making 'umrah. The fact that terrorist groups of any sort are operating at the Hajj has dangerous implications for the United States. Indeed, it would be naive to assume that al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations targeting U.S. interests are not using Mecca as a convenient and secure location for their own meetings, recruitment, and fundraising.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Mecca

20. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects of Israeli Disengagement-- A View From the Opposition

Author:: Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 23, 2004, Shimon Peres addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Current chairman of Israel's Labor Party, Mr. Peres previously served as that country's prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister, as well as in numerous other positions during a career that has spanned six decades. For his contributions to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, he received the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize along with the late Yitzhak Rabin and Yasir Arafat. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

21. Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Getting By with a Little Help from its Friends

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Prior to September 2000, the track record of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist attacks featured more failed and small-scale operations than successful or substantial ones; at the time, Hamas overshadowed PIJ in terms of terrorist activity. Yet, PIJ's profile has changed since then. In August 2001, Israel listed three PIJ members among its seven most-wanted terrorists, compared to one member each from Hamas, Force 17, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). In October 2001, PIJ secretary general Ramadan Abdullah Shallah asserted, "With the grace of God and the blessing of the blood martyrs, the Islamic Jihad movement is in the best condition it has ever been in," highlighting "its jihadist effectiveness and qualitative operations." PIJ solidified its reputation in the annals of the current Palestinian intifada with the April 2002 standoff in Jenin. Thaabat Mardawi, a senior PIJ commander in Jenin arrested in the course of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield, proudly described the PIJ-led battle against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to a CNN interviewer: "It was like hunting . . . like being given a prize. I couldn't believe it when I saw the soldiers. The Israelis knew that any soldier who went into the camp like that was going to get killed. I've been waiting for a moment like that for years." PIJ's moment has indeed come; by all accounts, the group will remain a dominant and destructive factor for the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

22. Special Report: The Need for Accountability

Author:: Ziad Abu Amr
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 27, 2002, Ziad Abu Amr addressed a special Washington Institute seminar on reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). Mr. Abu Amr is chairman of the Political Committee of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). The following are excerpts from his presentation, as transcribed by the Institute. Citing a recent speech given by Yasir Arafat to the PLC on the importance of reform, Abu Amr said, "For the first time, he acknowledged that there were mistakes, but he takes responsibility, something I personally did not like because this meant from the very start, suppressing the process of accountability and actual reform. The idea of the president was, 'Okay, there were mistakes. We close the files. We start afresh.' That was not acceptable."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

23. Special Report: Palestinian Political and Economic Reform

Author:: Hassan Abu-Libdeh
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 27, 2002, Hassan Abu Libdeh addressed a special Washington Institute seminar on reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). Dr. Abu Libdeh is director of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and a professor at Bir Zeit University. The following are excerpts from his presentation, as transcribed by the Institute. "The PA was born out of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which was known for a long time as an aging, ineffective, corrupt, and poorly managed institution . . ."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

24. Special Report: The Rationale for Palestinian Reform

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 27, 2002, Khalil Shikaki addressed a special Washington Institute seminar on reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). Dr. Shikaki is an associate professor of political science at Bir Zeit University and director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. The following are excerpts from his presentation, as transcribed by the Institute. "Initially, Palestinian interest [in reform] was basically an effort to address the issue of waste. . . . One year into the establishment of the Palestinian Authority [PA], the Palestinian comptroller issued a report which shocked everybody because the report basically said we have been wasting something like $250 million. . . . Waste, corruption, violation of human rights in Palestinian jails, security forces essentially ignoring any law and order, were all factors that became of serious interest in the early two or three years of the Palestinian Authority. . . . The reason for all of this is the fact that the Palestinians so far have failed to build strong institutions, structurally speaking. . . ."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

25. Special Policy Forum Report: A Fence for the Foreseeable Future: Security and Political Implications

Author:: Matan Vilnai
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 17, 2002, Minister Matan Vilnai addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Vilnai is Israel's minister of science, culture, and sport; a member of Israel's inner security cabinet; a Labor member of Knesset; chairman of the ministerial committee for Israeli Arab affairs; and a reserve major-general (he served as head of Israel's Southern Command from 1989 to 1994 when Israeli forces redeployed out of Gaza). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. A few weeks ago, the Israeli government decided to establish a security fence between Israel and the West Bank in order to stem the tide of Palestinian suicide attacks. This fence has the support of the majority of Israelis for whom daily life has become a harrowing experience and for whom a fence brings some hope of security. This fence should not be seen as a substitute for diplomacy, but rather as a temporary security measure. The fence will not become the permanent border between Israel and the Palestinians. A permanent border can only attain legitimacy if it receives the support of both parties through negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

26. Assessing Yasir Arafat's One-Hundred Day Plan for Reform

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As President George W. Bush was offering his vision for a post-Yasir Arafat Palestinian state two weeks ago, the Palestinian leader's cabinet was itself unveiling a "100-day plan" for reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). This plan was clearly designed to both respond to popular demands to fix the PA's broken or stillborn institutions as well as steer the reform process down a nonthreatening, Arafat-controlled course. While it offers promising elements of change, the plan is only likely to strengthen the unacceptable status quo.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

27. Analyzing President Bush's New Framework for Mideast Peace

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush today tore up a generation of conventional wisdom by offering a bold, new approach that conditioned U.S. support for eventual Palestinian statehood on a new political leadership; a "working democracy"; and far-reaching security, judicial, constitutional, and economic reform. At the same time, he seemed to ask nothing of Israel to which even the current Israeli government has not, in theory at least, already agreed. Having articulated this strategy, the White House will now surely face sustained pressure from Arab and European partners — and perhaps even from some within the administration — to balance the equation by early certification of Palestinian reform and/or accelerated demands on Israel for a redeployment of troops and a freeze on settlements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

28. Special Policy Forum Report: Operation Defensive Shield: Lessons and Aftermath

Author:: Shaul Mofaz
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The IDF began planning for the contingency of carrying out extensive military operations throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip long before the deployment of Operation Defensive Shield in late March 2002. As early as 1998, during a period when hopes abounded for peace with both the Syrians and the Palestinians, the IDF's general staff faced the challenge of preparing for the failure of negotiations and the possibility of violence. Israeli intelligence reports anticipated the hostilities that eventually materialized in September 2000, following the unsuccessful talks at Camp David. A number of short-term and structural reforms within the IDF began in early 2000, aimed at improving readiness and maximizing efficiency. The optimistic tone of the times, however, had led to budget cuts for the military; eventually, the government was forced to allocate an additional $150 million in order to prepare soldiers for the anticipated violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

29. Where Reform and Peace Collide: Assessing the Palestinian Basic Law and Draft Consitution

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With this week's dispatch to the Middle East of Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns, the Bush administration has put its toe into the water of Palestinian reform. Success in this vital effort will require avoiding the trap of sham reform (such as a disproportionate focus on elections that might only confirm the worst excesses of Palestinian misrule) or effectively endorsing any particular Palestinian leader or would-be leader (thereby repeating the mistakes of the last decade). Instead, Washington should focus on the larger objectives at hand. At the core, there are two: 1) fostering the development of Palestinian national institutions based on democracy, transparency, accountability, fiscal propriety, and the rule of law; and 2) advancing the prospect for lasting peace and security between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ([PA] and its eventual successor, the State of Palestine). These two objectives may be complementary, though not necessarily so; in fact, in certain circumstances, they may be contradictory. Indeed, in approaching the Palestinian reform process, U.S. officials should not only highlight the importance of structural change but also keep in mind the pitfalls of promoting (or acquiescing in) certain kinds of "reform" that may inhibit, handicap, or prevent real peacemaking from taking hold. A review of two key documents — #151; the Basic Law governing the PA until the conclusion of the current "transitional period" and the PLO-endorsed draft constitution for the future State of Palestine — #151; reveals several areas where U.S. officials need to take particular notice as they discuss various reform ideas with Palestinian leaders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

30. Plocca 2002: Empty Focus

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department recently submitted its semiannual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report to Congress, assessing PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with commitments made under the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords during the period June 15, 2001-December 15, 2001. The report acknowledges some PA shortcomings over the reporting period, but glosses over many gross violations of PA-PLO peace commitments throughout this period. In drawing its conclusions, the report did not take into account evidence of PA support for and involvement in terrorism laid out in approximately 500,000 documents Israel seized from PA offices in the course of Operation Defensive Shield. But there is good reason to expect that the U.S. government will find much of value in the seized Israeli documents. Ambassador Francis X. Taylor, the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism, recently commented, "We don't have any question about the authenticity of the documents provided by the Israeli Government." Therefore, it is instructive to see where the documents shed light on issues discussed in the PLOCCA report. Once the material seized by Israel has been reviewed by the U.S. intelligence community — #151; a process that, presumably, will be completed shortly — #151; it would be appropriate to issue an updated version of the PLOCCA report, incorporating the additional information about PLO-PA activities during the June 15-December 15 period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

31. From Armed Struggle to Reform: A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda are armed struggle, guided reform, and preparation for elections. No mention was made of the prospects for renewed negotiations or the proposed regional peace conference.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

32. Reforming the Palestinian Security Services

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, during the visit of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, President George W. Bush announced the need to "immediately begin to help rebuild a security force in Palestine that will fight terror, that will bring some stability to the region." He also stated that Central Intelligence Agency director George Tenet will be returning to the region "to help design the construction of a security force, a unified security force, that will be transparent, held accountable." Immediately after Bush's announcement, Sharon declared that he viewed security reform — #151; that is, purging the Palestinian Security Services (PSS) of corruption and terrorism — #151; as a precondition for a meaningful peace process, while, for his part, Bush did not create linkage between the two. Whatever differences exist in terms of linkage between reform and diplomacy, the administration's initiative is positive and necessary. The task at hand, however, is monumental, and solutions will take time, effort, and diplomatic skill. Quick fixes imposed from outside are unlikely to succeed unless they are accompanied by a fundamental change in the Palestinian leadership's approach to terrorism, counterterrorism, and peacemaking, and also by effective treatment of the deeply rooted social and institutional ailments within the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

33. The Intra-Likud Power Struggle and Israeli National Elections

Author:: Natan Sachs
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Likud Central Committee meets on Sunday to discuss a resolution opposing Palestinian statehood. Such a resolution could be seen as an important declarative step, despite its lack of legal significance (Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has publicly endorsed the idea of Palestinian statehood — albeit in vague terms). Although a vote on the topic may not occur, the fact that such a resolution is even being tabled casts a spotlight both on the party that is consistently leading Israeli polls and on the efforts of former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to unseat his rival, Sharon. The next national elections are currently scheduled for November 2003, but, as is often the case in Israeli politics, they could very well be held sooner. Interestingly, the current frontrunner is neither Sharon nor a member of Labor, the main opposing party, but rather a member of the prime minister's own party, the Likud. Two significant developments in the political landscape have contributed to this trend: first, in March 2001 the Knesset repealed the system of direct prime-ministerial elections and reinstated most of the elements of the old system, hoping to aid the larger parties (Likud and Labor) at the expense of smaller ones; second, since the outbreak of the current wave of Palestinian violence in September 2000, the voting preferences of the Israeli electorate have shifted dramatically to the right.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

34. An International Force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: The Security Aspects

Author:: Natan Sachs and Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Tuesday, former president Bill Clinton joined others in advocating a U.S.-led international force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Several frameworks for such an intervention have been proposed, ranging from monitoring missions to full-fledged international trusteeship over the territories. Underlying these ideas is a lack of confidence in both sides, the Israelis and the Palestinians, along with a perception that the latter are unable or unwilling to stop terror. Although the appeal of external intervention may be strong, an analysis of the relevant security repercussions suggests that such intervention would not only be hazardous, but would also likely do more harm than good in the fight against terrorism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

35. The Return of Palestinian Nationalist Terrorism

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Ehud Waldoks
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report, which is scheduled for release in late May, is set to be a much longer and detailed document than before. Among the many issues the report will have to address is the resurrection of secular Palestinian terrorist groups, some of which have not been listed on U.S. government terrorist lists in the past. The steady escalation of terrorist tactics and operations over the past year and a half is due as much to these groups as it is to Palestinian Islamist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad that have dominated the Palestinian terrorism scene over the last decade. Palestinian nationalist terrorism currently has two components: 1) dormant secular groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) — referred to collectively as "the fronts" — that have been revitalized after several years of inactivity; and 2) newly active nationalist, non-Islamist militias connected to the Palestinian Authority (PA), such as the Fatah Tanzim.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

36. Defensive Shield Counterterrorism Accomplishments

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Operation Defensive Shield — the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF's) counterterrorism operation in the West Bank — aims to confiscate illegal weaponry and bombing materiel; destroy factories producing bombs and missiles; constrict the environment in which terrorists plan, prepare, and execute terror attacks; and, most important, apprehend the operatives behind the current terrorist offensive. The operation has come under increasing international fire for delivering only short-term benefits at what seems to be a disproportionately high human cost on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. An analysis of the operation's success to date, however, clarifies not only the absolute necessity for such an operation, but also the scope of the operation's success in proactively disrupting terrorists' ability to target Israeli civilians. Moreover, a close look at the operation yields a plethora of disturbing evidence exposing the depth of the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) involvement in terrorism, including its links to terrorist groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

37. Israel's Response to Lebanese Border Skirmishes

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since March 28, 2002, the first day of Operation Defensive Shield — Israel's attempt to dismantle the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure — Lebanese Hizballah fighters have attacked northern Israeli settlements and military outposts on an almost daily basis. These unprovoked attacks have included the use of antitank missiles, mortars, katyusha rockets, and antiaircraft weapons directed at Israeli military and civilian aircraft. Among the towns attacked have been Shlomi, Kiryat Shmona, Moshav Beit Hillel, and the Allawite village Ghajar, where Hizballah fire wounded five residents, including three children. In an April 7 Hizballah attack on a military outpost in the western sector (a significant distance from the Shebaa Farms area), seven Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers — five of them women — were wounded. Despite these provocations, Israel has indicated that it does not wish to open a second front against Hizballah, the Lebanese army, or Syria. Yet, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon recently stated, "We are demonstrating restraint and are not interested in an escalation in the violence, but we cannot hold back for much longer," indicating that Israel's patience is about to run out and that harsh military response is imminent.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

38. Arafat's FInal Chance? President Bush's Speech: Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his Rose Garden speech yesterday, President George W. Bush jumped head-first into the waters of Middle East diplomacy by committing the prestige of his administration to the achievement of an Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire and, ultimately, to "ending the conflict and beginning an era of peace." Analytically, the most important innovation in the president's speech was his clear differentiation between the Palestinian people and the flawed, failed leadership of Yasir Arafat; absent was any hint of the recent days' mantra that Arafat remains indispensable to peacemaking. At the same time, however, the administration stopped short of breaking new ground operationally, relying instead on the prestige of the presidency, the persuasive powers of the secretary of state, and the implied threat to turn to other, as-yet-unnamed "responsible Palestinian leaders" to take the reins of power in the event this last-chance diplomacy fails to stem the terrorism and violence of recent days. Along the way, the president's decision to mesh political objectives with the goal of a ceasefire risked both an erosion of U.S. credibility in Mideast diplomacy and even more terrorism by giving Palestinians reason to believe that violence does succeed in chipping away at U.S. conditions for high-level political engagement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

39. Special Policy Forum Report: Demographics in the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute

Author:: Arnon Soffer
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beyond the current violence and terrorism lies a demographic reality in the Arab-Israeli dispute which might in the future transform the politics, economics, and geography of the region. The demographics may affect U.S. foreign policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

40. Entering the Refugee Camps: The Israeli Counterterrorist Offensive in the Gaza Strip

Author:: Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale operation in several cities and refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, beginning on the night of February 27 and ending nearly three weeks later with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Bethlehem and Bet-Jalla on March 18. This operation was unique in several ways: the scale of activity was the largest of the current conflict; it included simultaneous action in several areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, using ground, air, and naval forces; and it included massive penetration into areas under full Palestinian control (Area A) and, most notably, into refugee camps, long considered almost out-of-bounds for security forces (even those of the Palestinian Authority [PA]). A careful look at the operation and its outcome, however, shows that the rationale behind it does not represent a shift in Israeli military strategy, but merely a more robust implementation of it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

41. Hamas: Toward a Lebanese-Style War of Attrition?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Lebanon may well have come to the West Bank and Gaza. Over the past year and a half, Hamas has adopted traditional Hizballah guerilla tactics such as roadside bombings, short-range rocket and mortar launchings, using squads of terrorists from a variety of groups, and videotaping attacks and potential suicide bombers. In the proud words of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, "[Palestinians] are now operating against the Israeli occupation with Hizballah methods." More ominous, there are increasing signs that Hamas may follow Hizballah's example and broaden its operational objectives to include targeting Americans for attacks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Lebanon

42. Sharon and Buffer Zones

Author:: David Makovksy
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recriminations between Israelis and Palestinians on whether Israel sufficiently eased restrictions yesterday on the movement of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat within Ramallah (in return for the arrest of three Palestinians involved in the killing of an Israeli cabinet minister) have overshadowed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's declaration on Thursday to establish buffer zones in the West Bank.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

43. Special Policy Forum Report: Palestinian-Israeli Dynamics and the Future of Palestine

Author:: Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The parameters and structure of Palestinian society and polity have not yet been clearly defined or recognized. For Palestine, as for all societies that have been through liberation struggles, the extent of violence during the struggle will have a long-term impact on the future course of Palestinian politics, political values, identity issues, and institutional structures. The means through which the Palestinians obtain their independence will also have a major impact on the future of Palestinian-Israeli relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, London, and Palestine

44. Arafat's Vision of Peace: A Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 3, the New York Times published an op-ed by Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat titled "The Palestinian Vision of Peace." The timing of this op-ed is not coincidental. It appeared after several weeks of worsening U.S.-Palestinian ties, during which President George W. Bush registered his deep "disappointment" with the Palestinian leadership and U.S. officials contemplated cutting diplomatic ties with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Coming just days before visits to Washington by Israel's prime minister and defense minister, and just days after those Israeli leaders met with Palestinian interlocutors frequently cited as political successors to Arafat, this op-ed clearly sought to achieve several objectives: (1) to begin the process of repairing bilateral U.S.-Palestinian relations by spotlighting Arafat's peacemaking credentials; (2) to remind American audiences that Arafat — and not his subordinates and would-be successors — determines Palestinian strategy; and (3) to reorder the U.S.-Israel agenda this week to focus more on diplomacy and less on pressuring Arafat on terrorism and the investigation of the Karine-Aweapons-smuggling effort.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, New York, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

45. Special Policy Forum Report: The Karine-A Affair: A Strategic Watershed in the Middle East?

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian defense budget spending — relative to national income — is higher than that of any Arab country or Iran. This calculation is based on official data that exclude an important part of a state's defense budget — namely, procurement of weapons. The Oslo agreements prohibit the Palestinian Authority (PA) from procuring arms, yet they have been smuggled into the territories for years. It is not known how much the Palestinians actually invest in illegal weapons procurement, and there is no way to know how many wea
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Palestine

46. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Military Implications

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Alongside the diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved — since the beginning of the second intifada — in the indigenous production of weapons and ammunition and in repeated attempts to smuggle arms on a massive scale into the territories under its control. To thwart these efforts and to degrade the PA's fighting capabilities, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have destroyed dozens of warehouses and weapons-producing factories and have sealed all land, sea, and air passages leading into the PA.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

47. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Political Implications

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated in an interview with Reuters and several television networks invited by Israeli authorities to the prison where Akkawi was being held; in the interview, he named Adel Awadallah of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as head of the operation. Akkawi also identified himself as both a long-time member of Yasir Arafat's Fatah and a naval advisor to the PA's Ministry of Transport; the PA subsequently confirmed the latter fact. In front of the reporters, Akkawi disclosed his instructions to first collect arms at a specified point off of Iran's coast and then sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. He also confirmed that one of the men who helped load the arms onto his ship was a member of the Iranian-backed Hizballah, and that one of his own crew members had been trained by the group.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

48. The Hamas Ceasefire: Historical Background, Future Foretold?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The arrival of U.S. envoy General Anthony Zinni in Jerusalem today comes during a relative lull in the terrorism and violence that has characterized the Israeli-Palestinian scene since the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada in September 2000. This lull is at least partly due to the December 21 decision of Hamas to suspend attacks against Israel. But a review of the eight years since the signing of the Oslo Accord shows that this is actually the ninth ceasefire that Hamas has offered or declared during that period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo

49. Deterioration on Israeli-Palestinian Front: Assessing Options

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The decision by Israel's security cabinet last night to sever contact with Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasir Arafat, declaring him "irrelevant" in halting current Hamas suicide bombings and attacks, marks a new nadir in Israeli-Palestinian relations since the 1993 Oslo accords. Israel is frustrated by how little the PA has done to arrest Hamas members and other terrorists who are allegedly connected to the ongoing violence. But Israel's options are limited.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

50. Words and Actions: Leading by Example

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of this weekend's heinous Hamas suicide attacks in Israel, President Bush demanded, "Now more than ever, Chairman Arafat and the Palestinian Authority must demonstrate through their actions and not merely their words their commitment to fight terror." Last month the administration designated Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). Today, the administration led by example, following up on its strong words to Arafat with action of its own. The president characterized Hamas as a group of "global reach" and announced the freezing of financial assets associated with three organizations linked to Hamas as part of the administration's effort targeting terrorist fundraising. With today's order, the president expanded the active war on terrorism beyond Al Qaeda and the Taliban to include groups who target the Middle East peace process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

51. Special Policy Forum Report: The Intifada, One Year On: Israeli-Palestinian Relations and the War Against Terrorism

Author:: Martin Indyk
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 1, 2001, Ambassador Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel and assistant secretary of state for Near East Affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum to discuss the impact of the September 11 attacks on ending the year-long Palestinian intifada. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

52. A Year of Middle East Violence: Balance Sheet and Prospects in the Aftermath of September 11

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At the direct and repeated behest of the Bush administration, Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat met yesterday at the Gaza Airport — their first meeting since June. Given the extraordinary circumstances of the September 11 attacks and the U.S. desire to fashion an international coalition against terrorism, the meeting is bound to raise hopes that the latest ceasefire will take hold. As previous Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires have collapsed, however, the implications of this meeting cannot be predicted with any certainty. This Friday, September 28, marks the first anniversary of the violence that has engulfed Israelis and Palestinians and scuttled the peace process. Such an occasion presents an opportunity to assess the impact of this violence and to consider the future in light of the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, New York, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

53. Assessing the State Department Report on Palestinian Compliance: Modest Improvements, Glaring Omissions

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 12, in the media haze of the September 11 terrorist outrages, the State Department delivered to Congress the semi-annual report assessing PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with their "peace process" commitments. On the plus side, this document — the first covering a period on the watch of the Bush Administration — goes further than any previous report in citing PLO/PA acquiescence and even connivance in acts of violence. Regrettably, however, it follows the pattern of previous reports in failing to provide a full and unvarnished appraisal of PA/PLO compliance with its anti-terror, anti-violence and anti-incitement responsibilities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States and Palestine

54. 'Pre-Emptive Targeted Killings' as a Counter-Terror Tool: An Assessment of Israel's Approach

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yesterday's killing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) chief Abu 'Ali Mustafa by Israel, and the State Department's condemnation of this act, have refocused attention on Israel's use of "targeted killings" as part of its counter-terror policy. Since the start of the "al-Aqsa intifada," Israeli forces have killed more than three dozen Palestinians allegedly involved in planning or carrying out attacks on Israeli civilians. Nearly all have been from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated groups such as the Fatah Tanzim. Critics of these actions claim they are ineffective, if not counterproductive. What does the record show?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

55. Palestinian National Unity: Formalizing the Informal?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the horrific Hamas suicide bombing of a Jerusalem pizzeria on August 9, President Bush once again called on Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat to take the necessary steps to end the violence. Inside the PA, however, there is little discussion about a cessation of violence. Instead, the principal topic of discussion in the PA today concerns the prospect that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the leading nationalist opposition groups may join a Palestinian "government of national unity," formalizing the already close cooperation between these groups.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

56. Islamic Palestine or Libertated Palestine? The Relationship Between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Reuven Paz, academic director of the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herziliya, Israel, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000-2001, and author of the forthcoming Institute policy focus, Tangled Web: International Networking of the Islamist Struggle, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on July 12, 2001. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

57. Special Policy Forum Report: Challenges Facing the Palestinian Authority and the Peace Process

Author:: Nabil Sha'ath
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Nabil Sha'ath, the Palestinian Authority's Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on June 21, 2001. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The current Palestinian-Israeli tension is creating an explosive situation throughout the region — a situation that seriously threatens regional stability and affects the security, economic, and geopolitical interests of the United States as well as those of every Middle East country. The international community has a real interest in moving Israelis and Palestinians away from the brink and back to the negotiating table. This is where the support of the new U.S. administration is needed. In reaching their objectives of freedom and independence, the Palestinian Authority (PA), Yasser Arafat, and the Palestinian people still see no alternative to a peace process and a negotiated settlement leading to an outcome that is seen as fair, comprehensive, and just, with a viable Palestinian state as the ultimate goal.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

58. Jordan and the Islamists: Unfinished Business

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Colin Powell arrives in Tel Aviv today to shore up the shaky Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, across the river in Jordan, King Abdullah is quietly coping with his own separate but related crisis. On June 14, without any prior warning, Ibrahim Ghawsheh, the Hamas spokesman expelled from the kingdom in 1999 for his political activities, arrived at Queen Alia Airport on a Qatari Airways flight from Doha. Jordanian authorities refused him entry, and Ghawsheh, who is sixty-five-years-old, has since remained in custody at the airport. The Ghawsheh standoff-which comes as King Abdullah prepares to postpone impending elections and modify the electoral law-highlights the kingdom's ongoing difficulties with its Islamists.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

59. Special Policy Forum Report: Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority: Impressions from a Regional Tour

Author:: Robert Satloff and David Brooks
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At Camp David/Taba, the Palestinians left the Israeli bride at the altar, so to speak, by turning down the agreement. Regional actors have responded differently. Some Arab leaders, especially Egyptians, are in denial, arguing that former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's proposals are still valid and that the peace process is still salvageable. Many Arabs blame the failure of Camp David/Taba on the "arrangements" — technical problems, miscommunication, or poor timing of proposals that caused the talks to fizzle. If only these problems were fixed, they argue, an agreement could be worked out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

60. Palestinian-Israeli Political Fatalities, September 28, 2000 - April 30, 2001

Author:: Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following report evaluates trends in Israeli-Palestinian violence during the past seven months using fatality statistics. This analysis covers the period from the outbreak of the "Al Aqsa Intifada" on September 28, 2000 through to April 30, 2001. The following statistics are based primarily on information provided by the Israeli human rights group B'tselem. This data has been cross-checked for accuracy with the Israeli government and U.S. and other Western media sources. For information about fatalities in earlier periods and about methodology, see Peacewatch #317: "Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overvie" and Research Note #8: "Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

61. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S. Policy, The Mitchell Report and the Palestinian Uprising: Assessment and Prospects

Author:: Robert Satloff and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bush administration confronts a certain context on the ground in Israel and the Palestinian territories: Increasing violence. The violence gets worse and worse, and seems to have a logic and momentum of its own. There has been a descent into what may only be described as "communal violence."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

62. How Sharon and Arafat May Respond to U.S. Initiatives

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the State Department Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs-designate William Burns seeks to coax Israelis and Palestinians into accepting a sequence of steps to halt the current deterioration of violence that has engulfed the area in recent months, the question is whether there is sufficient political will among the parties to arrive at a mutually satisfactory arrangement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Palestine, and Arabia

63. The Mitchell Commission Report: Many Problems, Few Solutions

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This morning, the text of the long-awaited Mitchell Commission Report, an account of the past seven months of Israeli-Palestinian violence written by a five-member committee headed by former Senate majority leader George Mitchell, was made publicly available. Conceived as a "committee of fact finding" at the October 17, 2000 Sharm al Shaykh conference, its stated goal was to answer "What happened," "why it happened," and how the "recurrence of violence [could] be prevented."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

64. The Saudi Fatwah Against Suicide Terrorism

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 21, the grand mufti of Saudi Arabia, Shaykh Abd al-Aziz bin Abdallah Aal al-Shaykh, said that Islam forbids suicide terrorist attacks. This has raised a storm of criticism from supporters of the Palestinian intifada against Israel. However, the mufti may have been thinking more about Osama bin Ladin than recent Palestinian actions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

65. The State Department's Annual Terrorism Report: Politics As Usual

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, the Department of State issued its comprehensive annual report Patterns of Global Terrorism, describing incidents and trends in international terrorism in the year 2000. This year's report covers the first three months of accelerated Palestinian-Israeli violence. It is also marks the first time the Bush administration State Department has been compelled to publicly comment on the nature of Lebanese Hizballah attacks against Israel in the post-withdrawal era.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

66. Iran: More Fuel on the Israeli-Palestinian Fire

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The last two days have witnessed "The International Conference on the Palestinian Intifada" in Tehran. The conference was a major step in Iran's drive to accelerate terrorist attacks on Israel. Delegates to the conference came from thirty-four countries, including Syrian vice president Muhammad Zahir Mosahareqa, Lebanese National Assembly Speaker Nabih Berri, and representatives from many parliaments (e.g., Irish Senator Mick Lanigan). Palestinian participants included Palestinian Authority (PA) minister in charge of Jerusalem affairs Faisal Husseini and Palestinian National Council head Salim Za'noun (Abu Adib), one of the founding generation of Fatah and for many years the main link between Yasir Arafat and Islamic fundamentalist circles.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

67. Special Policy Forum Report: Palestinian Attitudes During the Bush/Sharon Era

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there are three perspectives as to why violent confrontations began in September: The Camp David II negotiations uncovered underlying differences in Israeli and Palestinian interests that are simply unbridgeable. Recent confrontations are basically the product of these differences. In this scenario, no return to negotiations is going to improve the situation. The current situation reflects domestic political constraints in both societies. Weak leaders, populations that are not prepared for the compromises needed for a final settlement, coalition politics, and questions of legitimacy are working against a solution. In this scenario, a permanent settlement is possible but certainly not easy. The two negotiating teams could have wrapped up the talks if they had had more time; indeed, they came very close to a compromise at Taba in January. According to this scenario, a matter of procedural difficulty — a miscalculation, misperception, or simply a lack of time — probably impeded the finalization of an agreement at Taba, while violence was still flaring in the territories. Most Palestinians are of the second school of thought. They did not believe that a deal was imminent at Camp David II or at Taba. Indeed, the belief that a comprehensive deal is imminent has eroded over time. Yet most Palestinians continue to hope that strong leaders in Israel and among the Palestinians can make essential compromises. Recently, a prominent perception among the Palestinian public was that Israel's weak government initiated the violence after Camp David II because Israel wanted the Palestinians to accept something that they had rejected. This perception, plus the heavy causalities and the collective punishment sustained over the past few months, has helped to radicalize Palestinian society.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

68. Special Policy Forum Report: The Brink of Peace? And Inside Look from Camp David to Taba

Author:: Gilead Sher
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat is responsible for the collapse of the peace process and for the extreme violence of the last seven months. In the year and a half of negotiations with the Palestinians under the leadership of former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, the objective was a permanent peace settlement: Israel would withdraw from a large part of the occupied territories, and, in return, there would be an official end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The intention was to fashion an alternative to occupation, since this situation was not only untenable, but was also a strategic burden to Israel. Arafat, however, would only accept an agreement in which all of his demands were met; failing this, he would and did resort to imposing an arrangement through violent confrontation. Consequently, the peace process collapsed. Arafat was never ready — mentally, personally, or historically, at Camp David or afterwards — to conclude a deal; he is a leader of a national movement and not a statesman.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

69. The Palestinian Authority: En Route To The State Department's Terrorism List?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The U.S. Department of State will shortly issue its semi-annual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report. This report, now several weeks overdue, details PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with their "peace process" commitments. And in April, the State Department will release its annual report about global terrorism. The release of these reports comes just weeks after Israeli chief of staff Shaul Mofaz described the PA as a "terrorist entity." The content of these reports will be the subject of close scrutiny. How the United States characterizes the PA with regard to terrorist activities is an important signal — both of how the Bush administration will contribute to the lowering of violence as the first step to the resumption of Israeli–Palestinian negotiations, and of what the direction of U.S.–Palestinian relations will be during the George W. Bush/Ariel Sharon era.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

70. Assessing Powell's Trip To Israel And The Palestinian Territories

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to be unnerved about.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

71. Time Running Out On Clinton Proposals

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made clear that the Palestinians have engaged in "delays" since the December 23 ideas were tabled. Seeking to avoid the international disapproval that mushroomed in the wake of last summer's failed Camp David summit, Yasir Arafat came to Washington with an apparent "yes, but" view of the proposals. However, this approach seems clearly to be little more than a public-relations tactic.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Migration, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

72. Special Policy Forum Report; Inside Clinton's Peace Proposals: A Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the White House has made no comment on the substance of President Bill Clinton's proposal for Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and the Palestinian Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) have published what they say are respectively the Israeli and Palestinian minutes of the president's December 23 oral presentation. What is striking is that the two accounts agree on every substantive point. These accounts provide a sound basis for knowing what in fact Clinton proposed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

73. From Bilateralism To Internationalization: Security Implications Of The U.S. Bridging Proposals

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With President Clinton due to meet Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat today for a last-ditch diplomatic effort, attention is focused mainly on two aspects of the U.S. bridging proposals: the division of Jerusalem and the future status of Palestinian refugees. In contrast, little attention has so far been devoted to the security aspects of the U.S. proposals. While less emotive, security issues need to be central to U.S. concerns about the viability of any "final status" accord and its impact on U.S. interests and allies. It is difficult, however, to assess this aspect of the proposals because so many key security issues were evidently not raised by the President in his pre-Christmas oral presentation to the two sides. They may have been the subject of previous or subsequent discussions among the parties, but they were not on the President's core agenda.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

74. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah

Author:: Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon

75. The Separation Option: An Alternative To The Peace Process?

Author:: Dan Schueftan
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a final agreement with Israel, and have instead shifted toward the Lebanon model of using violence to force an Israeli retreat — a trend with tragic implications for the future of Palestinian society.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

76. A UN Protection Force For Palestinians: Background And Implications

Author:: Robert Satloff and Rachel Stroumsa
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, Arab parties from the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Arab League summit have called for the dispatch of a United Nations force to the West Bank and Gaza in order to protect Palestinian civilians from Israeli military force. Rather than reject this idea because of its contribution to the internationalization of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the U.S. view has been to cite its impracticality, given Israeli opposition. Remarkably, the Israeli government itself seems to be hinting that it may be willing to consider the proposal, especially in the event of a reduction in violence. This is evidenced by recent talks between Israeli and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) representatives to the United Nations, reportedly hosted by their Egyptian colleague.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

77. Special Policy Forum Report: Israeli Security Strategy: Facing Multiple Fronts

Author:: Ephraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, four factors have combined to make the situation in the Middle East far more combustible than it is has been for a long time. These elements are: Iraq has managed to break out of the boundaries imposed by the UN sanctions regime and to evade weapons inspections. Saddam Husayn is now stronger than ever and ready to play a role in the region. He has signaled this intention by his deployment of troops on the western borders of Iraq just before the Arab summit in Egypt. Although he has since pulled them back, this maneuver was intended to send the message that Saddam Husayn is a force to be reckoned with from now on. Iran has enhanced its efforts to use a consortium of terrorist groups against the remnants of the peace process. Intelligence information shows that Iran has deployed long-range Katyusha missiles in Lebanon and that it is encouraging Hizballah activities against Israel. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has disappointed most analysts, who hoped that he would focus on addressing Syria's economy and other domestic concerns. Instead, his speeches both at the Arab summit in Egypt and at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Qatar have been extremely bellicose. In addition, it is clear that the recent kidnappings by Hizballah and a Palestinian group's attempt to infiltrate Israel through Lebanon could not have taken place without at the least a green light from Damascus, even if Bashar himself did not authorize them specifically. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat has evidently changed course from negotiation to confrontation. So far, the Palestinian cause has proven to be uniting force in the Arab world; under certain circumstances, it might also serve as a good pretext for resumption of full-scale hostilities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

78. Non-Lethal Weapons, 'Excessive Force' And The Al-Aqsa Intifada

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, accusations that Israel has used "excessive force" in dealing with Palestinians have led to calls for Israel to employ "non-lethal" weapons as a way to reduce Palestinian casualties and stem the cycle of violence between the two sides. In fact, however, Israel is already using the rather limited range of traditional "less lethal" (LL) and "non-lethal" (NL) weapons that are used by most modern armies. More exotic, nontraditional concepts that have been under development in the past few years are either not yet ready for fielding (as in the case of so-called "acoustic weapons"), or have potential drawbacks which vitiate their potential operational utility (as with "sticky foam").
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

79. Special Policy Forum Report: Arafat's Strategy -- Impose An Intifada, Spillover To The Arab World

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The events of the past five weeks are not a repeat of the Palestinian Intifada of 1987-90, a spontaneous uprising that caught both Chairman Yasir Arafat and Israel equally by surprise. Rather, the current uprising is a confrontation imposed by Arafat on the Palestinian street. Three major elements of the original Intifada are missing in the current situation: 1) The countryside, a backbone of the original Intifada, has so far opted out of the current struggle; 2) the population of east Jerusalem has distanced itself, to the extent that the Tanzim has had to send people from Ramallah and the refugee camps into Jerusalem in order to engineer confrontations. Seen from this angle, the shooting of Israeli guards at the National Insurance Institute in east Jerusalem is a signal to Jerusalem Arabs that Arafat will not permit them to remain on the sidelines; 3) the lower middle classes, a prominent player during the original Intifada, are absent. While thousands may participate in funeral processions, very few (including very few students) join in confrontations with Israeli soldiers at the major flashpoints; the size of these confrontations rarely exceeds a few hundred.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jerusalem

80. Inside The Fatah Tanzim: A Primer

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As violence continues to flare in parts of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, attention is increasingly focused on the Palestinian group responsible for much of the rioting and confrontation—the Fatah Tanzim. Just yesterday, the leader of the Tanzim, Marwan Barghouthi, ridiculed the ceasefire reached in Paris as useless. That the agreement was so short-lived highlights the growing importance of this quasi-civilian strike force.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

81. The 'Battle For Jerusalem': Assessing Strategy And Tactics

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Uneven press coverage and shocking television footage have skewed analysis of the ongoing "Battle for Jerusalem"—the week-old explosion of violence that has swept from the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, to the West Bank, Gaza and Arab population centers in Israel. Seen in political and historical context, current events actually highlight a relatively low level of casualties, a general policy of restraint by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and a confluence of interests among all elements of the Palestinian political spectrum—from the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership to the street-level Fatah tanzim to the opposition Hamas—favoring violence against Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, Gaza, and Arab Countries

82. Hamas's Lessons From Lebanon

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's quick withdrawal from Lebanon and the collapse of the South Lebanon Army (SLA) is certain to be studied by Hamas, the main Palestinian Islamist organization. To understand what lessons Hamas may draw, it is useful to look at two recent developments: discussion inside Hamas about "Lebanonizing" the Palestinian territories and the early May arrest of Hamas military commander Muhammad Deif by the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries

83. Palestinian Refugees In Lebanon: New Source Of Cross-Border Tension?

Author:: Nicole Brackman
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While Hizballah still mulls over its options in the wake of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon–terrorism, political activism, or both–there remains in Lebanon one other sizable community that could be the source of renewed tension and violence: the 350,000 Palestinian refugees. This group has a long and tortured history in Lebanon, but the development of the Oslo process (which most refugees in Lebanon perceive as an illegitimate betrayal of their cause), along with both the loss of Syrian-Lebanese leverage over Israel following unilateral withdrawal and the increasing desperation of the refugees, has fostered those ideological movements inside the refugee camps that may turn violent in order to bring attention to the refugees' humanitarian plight.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

84. Palestinian Democracy And The Peace Process: One Year After May 4, 1999

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Palestinian and Israeli negotiators settle into a negotiating routine in Eilat this week, the peace process quietly marks an anniversary of sorts—one year ago the Oslo-Wye diplomacy faced the threat of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence. That step was temporarily averted when Palestinian Authority (PA) ra'is Arafat postponed his May 4 declaration until after the Israeli election that month and then, following the signing of the Sharm el-Sheikh accord with the new government of Ehud Barak, until September 13, 2000. Today, May 4 is no longer a critical date on the calendar of Palestinian national aspirations. Yet, it does remain an important milestone for those committed to developing a more representative, democratic, and accountable PA. And more so than is commonly recognized, that process in turn is likely to have a significant impact on the prospects for an eventual Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries

85. Palestinian Track: Getting Down To Business

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "In our judgment, the next six to eight weeks could well be a decisive phase in the pursuit of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. . . . That phase obviously is now including a more intensive American involvement." This shift—after several months of focusing on Syria talks—does not necessarily mean that the Syrian track can be considered dead and buried (and indeed Arab leaders such as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah are said to be quietly seeking to revive that track). Yet, operationally, it means that the United States and Israel will no longer wait for Syria as they revive the Palestinian track and plan for Israel's pullback from Lebanon in July.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

86. Palestinian Holocaust Denial

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) has recently published a denial of the Jewish Holocaust on its official website. Although Hamas often uses anti-Jewish phrases, this was the first time the organization has officially denied the Holocaust.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries

87. Special Policy Forum Report: Crossing Between Two Tracks — Barak, Syria, And The Palestinians

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to defend itself from the international border with Lebanon. The target date is also a deadline for the negotiations with the Syrians, as nine years after the peace conference in Madrid we are likely to witness either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

88. Special Policy Forum Report: The Vatican And The Middle East — Pope John Paul II's Trip To The Holy Land

Author:: Marshall Breger and George Weigel
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Historically the Vatican's view of Israel and Zionism was negative. The Vatican explicitly told Herzl that that the Jews were meant to wander, and if they set foot on Palestinian soil the Christians would be there to convert them. The main concern of the Catholic Church regarding the Holy Land has long been to maintain the status quo of the Catholic holy places. For many years, the Church supported the creation of Jerusalem as an entity independent from the surrounding states—a corpus separatum. But in the 1970s, the Vatican spoke instead of international guarantees for the holy places, an idea that remains Vatican policy today.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Arab Countries, and Vatican city

89. Israel's Strategy For Security And Peace

Author:: Ephraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The recent delay in talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is the result of an unnecessary crisis initiated by Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat. The motivation behind this tactic is the idea that you can squeeze more out of the Israelis through crisis than you can at the negotiating table. This artificial stalemate is designed to achieve more for the Palestinians, but ultimately it will not. Such political maneuvering is a mistake. The current dispute regarding the transfer of 6 percent of West Bank territory concerns implementation of one aspect of last year's Sharm al-Sheikh agreement, and this technicality has no real meaning with regard to final status. The Israelis are willing to discuss such issues, but Palestinian eagerness to stonewall the talks pertaining to them draws both parties away from the most important concerns.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries

90. Special Policy Forum Report: 'Red Lines' In The Israeli-Syrian And Israeli-Palestinian Tracks

Author:: Ze'ev Schiff
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the negotiations between Israel and both Syria and the Palestinians, each side has red lines—points on which it cannot concede. No agreement will be possible that crosses the red line of either side. Not all red lines are the same. In particular, Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have to draw red lines based on how much either can concede and still obtain the support of the public for the agreement, whereas in Syria, President Hafiz al-Asad is the sole decision maker.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

91. Special Policy Forum Report: Democracy And The Palestinian Authority — Is Good Governance Essential For Peace?

Author:: David Schenker and Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In 1996, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs Robert Pelletreau described democracies as "the best partners for making peace and building prosperity." Nevertheless, democracy is a term seldom mentioned with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. U.S. policy toward the Palestinians and the peace process has been focused on security, but that does not necessarily have to come at the expense of democracy. In fact, a more democratic Palestinian Authority (PA) would enhance security. En route to a peace agreement with Israel, Palestinians will be required to make concessions that will be easier to achieve if a popular consensus for those concessions is built through a democratic process. Democracy will promote better governance, resulting in an improved economy and therefore a better Palestinian neighbor for Israel. Furthermore, Palestinians will be discontented without democracy, for they have a long history of democratic civil institutions, including student councils and municipal elections, as well as an extensive knowledge of and appreciation for Israeli democracy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

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