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202. Iraqi Strategy and the Battle for Baghdad
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the past two days, U.S. forces have battled elements of the four Republican Guard (RG) divisions that form the outer ring of Baghdad's defenses, initiating what may be the decisive phase of the coalition's invasion of Iraq. The possibility of urban combat in Baghdad is a daunting one, entailing risks not only for coalition forces, but for the Iraqi regime as well. Although the battle for Baghdad is likely to be the decisive phase of the current campaign, it is unlikely to be the final stage of this conflict. Rather, it will mark the transition to a new phase of what is likely to become a protracted struggle, one that could last as long as U.S. troops remain in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
203. Starting Over: U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Post-Iraq War Era
- Author:
- Mark Parris
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As demonstrated by President George W. Bush's request to Congress yesterday to provide Turkey with $1 billion in aid -- money that can be leveraged into $8 billion in loan guarantees -- Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the Iraq war is a watershed in U.S.-Turkish relations, and the partnership will inevitably involve a new agenda based on postwar realities.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
204. Iraq Fights Its War 'Outside-In'
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iraqi forces have been countering the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom with a form of "outside-in" strategy, defending their country from the periphery to the center. Although the coalition is winning every significant engagement and has penetrated to the heart of the country, Saddam Husayn's regime is not giving ground easily, and the costs of bringing it down will rise. The regime is demonstrating once again that it is a dynamic opponent, capable of understanding what it faces and coming up with surprises.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
205. The Long View of No-Fly and No-Augmentation Zones
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Coalition ground forces entered Iraq on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom, in contrast to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when the ground assault followed forty-three days of air strikes involving an average of 2,500 sorties per day. This difference was due in large part to the fact that much of the work of preparing the battlefield had been completed well before the current operation began. Specifically, coalition air forces have long engaged in large-scale activities in Iraq's no-fly and no-augmentation zones, flying as many as 1,000 sorties per day -- substantially more than the 700 sorties flown during the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
206. The 'Arab Street' and the War: Are Regimes in Control?
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- An apparently spontaneous protest stopped traffic in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday. Protesting the allied attack on Iraq, some of the participants turned violent, overturning police blockades. In Damascus, riot police fired tear gas on hundreds of protesters who threw rocks and tried to rush the U.S. embassy. Several smaller demonstrations were also reported in Lebanon, Jordan, and the Gaza Strip. Today, more protests occurred in Cairo, Jerusalem, Beirut, Damascus, Amman, and Manama. In Yemen, a shootout was reported between police and antiwar protesters marching on the U.S. embassy in Sanaa. These incidents support the idea of a dangerous "Arab street," reflecting a disaffected Arab public incensed at U.S. policy. What is the impact of Arab antiwar opinion on regional stability?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
207. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S. Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt, Judith Yaphe, and Eric Mathewson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- It is day one of the Iraqi war. The Iraqi nation is in chaos. In the mosques, fatwas (religious decrees) are issued against the invading Westerners. The Kurds revolt. At home, antiwar protesters are demonstrating in the streets: is the objective of this war regional stability, political change, or oil?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
208. The Complexities of a Military Coup Against Saddam
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- There has been much speculation that under certain circumstances -- either just before a war or in the early stages of a coalition operation -- some elements of the Iraqi military would move against Saddam Husayn and his regime. A coup against Saddam would in fact be a highly complex event with uncertain benefits for the coalition. Whether or not such an action were to begin before or after the onset of war, specific requirements would have to be met and serious obstacles overcome in order to achieve a successful end result. The history of failed coups against Saddam suggests just how uncertain the prospects would be for such a result.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
209. The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report -- titled "Iraq, the Middle East, and Change: No Dominoes" -- as "pouring scorn" on Bush administration policy. In fact, the INR report meshes with administration policy, which is to seek political liberalization of existing regimes first, avoiding the radicalism of "overnight democracy" schemes.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
210. Infrastructure Targeting and Postwar Iraq
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Using new operational concepts in concert with rapidly maturing strike technologies, the U.S. military will attempt to seamlessly dovetail the destructive process of warfare with the reconstructive effort of nation building in any future air operations against Iraq. Lessons learned from air campaigns conducted in Iraq during the 1990s have laid the foundation for a more finessed approach to infrastructure targeting.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
211. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
212. Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: Insights from a Captured Document
- Author:
- Norman Cigar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense and bears the approving signature of then-chief of staff Lt. Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji. As such, it represents official Iraqi thinking on the topic, providing the most detailed description of how Baghdad might use nuclear weapons if it were to acquire them. The existence of the manual indicates that the Iraqi military was thinking ahead to a time when Iraq would have nuclear weapons, and that it was preparing to integrate such weapons into its arsenal and its overall military doctrine
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
213. Special Policy Forum Report: Fighting With or Without Turkey? Lessons and Implications
- Author:
- Gordon Rudd and Gerald Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- It is unclear clear whether the Turkish parliament will re-vote or approve the deployment of U.S. troops in Turkey in preparation for an attack on Iraq. Turkish military cooperation -- or its absence -- may either facilitate or, respectively, complicate an American military operation. Even if the Turkish parliament were to approve the move, potential fault lines could challenge a Turkish-American partnership in the event of war. In this environment, Operations Provide Comfort (OPC) I and II of the early 1990s -- when Turkey, the United States, and other NATO allies collaborated closely in northern Iraq to establish a safe haven for Kurds -- may prove instructive.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
214. Iran's Municipal Elections: A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter turnout and mass alienation from the political process, the conservatives swept elections in nearly all major Iranian cities. Indeed, the elections marked the lowest turnout in twenty-four years and the first time that the reform movement has been defeated at the polls since its emergence in the mid-1990s. Beyond the issue of largely symbolic local councils, the elections reflect the changing dynamics of Iran's political landscape.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
215. What Kind of Defense Might Iraq Mount?
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If the United States and the "coalition of the willing" go to war, the result will be a comprehensive defeat of the Iraqi regime and its military and security forces. What is not so clear is how smoothly the military campaign will proceed. Many commentators seem to assume that any serious problems would emerge only after the war was over. Yet, could the Iraqis mount enough defense to cause problems during the war itself? How might they defend themselves, and why might they have some success?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
216. Special Policy Forum Report: The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq
- Author:
- Yitzhak Nakash
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The prospect of American military action in Iraq has raised concerns that dismantling the Ba'ath regime will weaken the state and spur the defection of its Shi'i majority under the influence of Iran. Yet, much of the pessimism surrounding this assessment obscures the historical role that the Shi'i community has played in supporting the Iraqi state, not to mention the vital interest it has in preserving the country's territorial integrity. If war in Iraq leads to a more representative government that is willing to address Shi'i political aspirations, the likely result would be stability and the establishment of a more moderate religious leadership quite different from that seen in Iran.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
217. The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants: The Iranian Connection
- Author:
- Ely Karmon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
218. An Accident on the Road to U.S.-Turkish Cooperation in Iraq: Implications for Turkey
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to authorize the motion, however, blocking the creation of a northern front in the looming war. Of the 533 deputies in session, 264 voted for the motion, 250 voted against it, and 19 abstained, bringing the motion only three votes shy of the majority required by the constitution. AKP assurances that only 30 to 40 of its delegates would object to the motion crashed to a halt over the course of the session, with 99 of the party's deputies voting nay. Although the democratic will of the Turkish parliament should be respected, the fact remains that the AKP government failed to pass its agenda through the legislature. Some analysts argue that this spells trouble for both Turkey and AKP, with others speculating that U.S.-Turkish relations are now at a historical threshold.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
219. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey's Stakes in Iraq
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue about Ankara's stance toward potential U.S. military action. Why has Turkey been hesitant to support Washington's plans, and how might such vacillation affect the U.S.-Turkish strategic alliance in the future?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
220. Complicity in Iraq: How Deep?
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam Husayn's regime. According to the Washington Post, the United States intends to conduct a "de-Baathification" program in Iraq similar in some ways to the "de-Nazification" program conducted in Germany in the wake of World War II. Although the details of this program are still to be worked out, the Post indicated that complicity in "human rights and weapons abuses" would be key criteria in determining which Iraqi officials would be permitted to keep their jobs.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany
221. Lebanese Military Deployment to the South: Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics
- Author:
- Yoram Yoffe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the reverberations to follow.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
222. Iraq's Al-Samoud: A Missile with Great Possibilities
- Author:
- Richard Speier
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of attaining a range 22 percent greater than that allowed under UN restrictions is a "prima facie" case for their proscription. Yet, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has said, "There is no serious violation," and it is unclear whether Baghdad would obey a destruction order. Understanding the significance of the al-Samoud requires a closer look at the missile's developmental history, technical capabilities, and strategic purpose.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
223. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?
- Author:
- Ladan Boroumand
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
224. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo
- Author:
- Osama el-Baz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo
225. Placing Iraq and Zarqawi in the Terror Web
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 6 address to the United Nations Security Council, some questioned his description of the "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network." In fact, the relationship between Baghdad and terrorism mirrors the way in which today's international terrorist groups function: not as tightly structured hierarchies, but rather as shadowy networks that, when necessary, strike ad hoc tactical alliances bridging religious and ideological schisms. Osama bin Laden's recent call on Muslims to come to Iraq's defense, even as he derided the "infidel" regime in Baghdad, is a case in point.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
226. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn
- Author:
- Bassem Awadallah
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan
227. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English
- Author:
- Merissa Khurma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
228. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia
229. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
230. Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States: Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
- Author:
- Shafeeq Ghabra
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and dangers for the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
231. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland
232. Reforming the Arab Stand: A Saudi Initiative on Iraq and the Wider Arab World
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week, the Saudi government published what it described as a "Charter to Reform the Arab Stand," a document intended for endorsement at the next summit of Arab leaders, due to be held in Bahrain in March. Addressed to Arab kings and presidents, the charter calls for more internal reforms and "categorically reject[s] any illegal external aggression against any Arab state."
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain
233. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict
- Author:
- Max Abrahms
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
234. Special Policy Forum Report: The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East -- A Preview of 2003
- Author:
- Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, E.J. Dionne, and Fred Barnes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new ones to achieve these goals. Such decisions will affect the degree and nature of Iraq's transformation, and the new regime's composition could be significantly different if the United States were to depend on a reformed Iraqi military to promote stability. Moreover, Iraqi transformation corresponds directly to a region-wide transformation, because increased efforts to transform Iraq with a broad-based, representative government will send signals of political reform to Iraq's neighbors. U.S. policy must stand ready to assist other Middle Eastern regimes in their transition to more responsible governments that offer their people hope and the prospect for change.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
235. Special Policy Forum Report: Hizballah Fundraising in the American Heartland
- Author:
- Kenneth Bell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In 1996, an off-duty police officer working as a security guard at a cigarette wholesaler in North Carolina noticed young men entering the building with grocery bags full of cash. The men would queue up in the cashier's line with 299 cartons of cigarettes each, while one of them stood at the register and paid cash as the others came through. Next, they would load the cigarettes into minivans and head toward Michigan. At the time, it was against the law to transport more than 300 cartons of cigarettes into another state unless they were marked with the tax stamp of that state. Yet, the smugglers in question took advantage of the fact that neither North Carolina nor Michigan stamped cigarettes to show tax paid. Given the large disparity between North Carolina's cigarette tax (50 cents per carton) and Michigan's ($7.50 per carton), each minivan load had the potential to generate $13,000 worth of profit; indeed, at the height of the operation, three to four minivans were running to Michigan each week.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Middle East, Arabia, and North Carolina
236. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan
237. Banning in Hizballah Activity in Canada
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 11, 2002, the Canadian government banned Hizballah, labeling it a terrorist organization. Strangely, some in Canada are having second thoughts about this measure, likely under the assumption that Hizballah is not a terrorist group but a social and political organization engaged in armed struggle against Israel. Yet, evidence of Hizballah's international activity as a terrorist group of global reach is overwhelming.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Canada, and Arabia
238. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America
239. Missiles and Diplomacy: The Middle East's Dangerous Mix
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The temporary seizure by the Spanish navy last week of a ship carrying Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen was a reminder of the extent of missile proliferation in the Middle East. Similarly, Yemen's insistence on receiving the missiles, despite U.S. pressure, is a reminder of how much priority Middle Eastern states place on missile arsenals.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Korea, and Yemen
240. Iran's Nuclear Activities: What Might the IAEA Learn?
- Author:
- Chen Zak
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the chances that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the organization responsible for verifying compliance to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), will detect clandestine nuclear activities in these two sites or elsewhere in Iran?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
241. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq's WMD Declaration – How Important? How to Respond?
- Author:
- David Kay
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 6, 2002, David Kay addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. David Kay is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute. He previously served as the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq, where he led teams that uncovered the scope and extent of Iraq's nuclear program. He has also served as corporate vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and the United States wary, of the Iraqi declaration.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
242. Fatah-Hamas Relations: Rapprochement or Ready to Rumble?
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer and Gal Luft
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Parallel to the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel is a power struggle between Hamas and Fatah. Years of tensions have culminated in Gaza street clashes between the two organizations in recent weeks. An Egyptian-sponsored summit designed to achieve rapprochement between the two groups sputtered in Cairo last month, but talks are scheduled to resume on December 22. Against the backdrop of a floundering economy, weak public security, and a disintegrating central authority, Fatah's attempts to rein in Hamas are crucial if the Palestinian Authority (PA) is to remain the ruling institution in the territories.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt
243. Powell on Democracy in the Muslim World: Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S. policy on promoting democracy in Muslim-majority countries took two steps forward and one step back last week with Secretary of State Colin Powell's major address unveiling the new Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). On the positive side was the simple fact that democratization merited such cabinet-level focus, along with the details of MEPI itself – a promising set of small-scale, big-bang-for-the-buck, incubator-style projects targeted at critical groups (women, youths, educators) that deserve attention and support. On the negative side were a series of political messages within the speech – both explicit and implicit – suggesting that the active promotion of democratic change in Muslim countries, especially U.S. allies in the Arab world, may not be such a priority after all.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
244. Special Policy Forum Report: Middle Eastern Studies – What Went Wrong?
- Author:
- Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 26, 2002, Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Martin Kramer is the Institute's Wexler-Fromer fellow and author of its 2001 monograph Ivory Towers on Sand: The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in America. Lisa Anderson is dean of international affairs at Columbia University and president of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, Education, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Washington, Middle East, and Colombia
245. Special Policy Forum Report: The War on Terror in the Shadow of the Iraq Crisis
- Author:
- Bruce Hoffman, Matthew Levitt, and Daniel Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 4, 2002, Bruce Hoffman, Daniel Benjamin, and Matthew Levitt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Hoffman is vice president of external relations at RAND and author of Inside Terrorism (Columbia University Press, 1998). Benjamin is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council, and coauthor of The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002). Levitt is a senior fellow in terrorism studies at the Institute and author of Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy Toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11 (The Washington Institute, 2002).
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Colombia
246. Promoting Democracy in the Muslim World: Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a thoughtful and measured address on December 4, State Department Policy Planning Director Richard Haass enunciated a new Bush administration policy on building "greater democracy" in the "Muslim world." Though it skirted several of the toughest policy issues (e.g., whether and how to promote democracy in inhospitable terrain like Saudi Arabia), this important speech nonetheless broke substantial new ground. Especially welcome was the healthy mix of realism and idealism, with arguments for pursuing democratization in Muslim countries leavened with the recognition that "we must above all obey the Hippocratic oath and first do no harm."
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
247. Turkey and the European Union at a Crossroads: America's Role
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- According to the Financial Times, France and Germany will propose to the December 12-13 European Union (EU) summit that negotiations regarding Turkey's accession to the EU begin in July 2005, providing Ankara achieves further progress in democratic consolidation and human rights. If indeed Turkey is offered a conditional date for EU accession at the Copenhagen summit, this would represent a significant, yet incomplete, step. Turkey needs a direct date from the EU to begin negotiations for joining the union.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, and Germany
248. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part II): Smokescreen or Substance?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week, Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, presided over a Washington press conference and the release of a report, "Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Financial Area to Combat Terrorism." The press conference marked the first time that Saudi Arabia has publicly committed to formal cooperation with international bodies in the fight against terrorist financing and money laundering. Yet, the event also included a number of disturbing statements.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
249. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I): The Impact in the Kingdom
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please Washington are increasingly regarded as objectionable. As often happens in the kingdom, the theory behind the new rules may well differ from how they are actually implemented.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
250. A Tale of Two Qatars
- Author:
- Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries