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41. Fatah Congress: A Victory for Abbas

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 10, Fatah concluded its sixth congress, the first in twenty years. Although media attention has focused on some of the summit's disturbing pronouncements, significant political developments have occurred. Over the span of seven days, Fatah leaders discussed the key issues and challenges facing the party, including organizational and political issues affecting its unity, the role of its power centers, the peace process, and the group's relationship with Hamas and the Palestinian government. Whether Fatah is now able to overcome its organizational deficits and restore its popularity and leadership among the Palestinian people remains to be seen. But Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has undoubtedly emerged stronger, competing powers within Fatah seem to have accepted coexistence, and the conflict between Fatah and Hamas is expected to escalate.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Middle East

42. Iraqi Kurds Go to the Polls: Is Change Possible?

Author:
J. Scott Carpenter and Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 25, Iraqi Kurds go to the polls to vote in a joint parliamentary and presidential election. Although a heated competition in January produced massive change at the provincial level throughout the rest of Iraq, the electoral system produced by the incumbent Iraqi Kurdistan parliament prevents such sweeping changes in the north. Both the current coalition governing the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the current KRG president, Masoud Barzani, will most likely be reelected. Despite the lack of change, the postelection period will create an opportunity for Baghdad, Washington, and the KRG to resolve outstanding issues that cause increased tension between Arabs and Kurds. Resolution can occur only if all parties take advantage of new political openings, however narrow.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

43. PolicyWatch #1403: Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's narrow Kadima party victory over Shaul Mofaz last week, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert resigned on Sunday night. The following day, Israeli president Shimon Peres asked Livni to form a new governing coalition, but if she is unable to do so in the next six weeks, Israel will head for new elections. Regardless of the coalition's makeup, prospects remain bleak in the short term for a breakthrough on either the Palestinian or Syrian track.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

44. PolicyWatch #1405: The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 22, the Iraqi parliament belatedly passed a provincial elections law, ending a long and costly deadlock. Parliament ratified the initial version of the law on July 22, but it was later vetoed by two members of Iraq's presidency council. This time it is likely that the bill will survive council scrutiny because of the compromises and concessions made in the long negotiation process. Nevertheless, passing the law marks only the beginning of a vital political transition that could lead to either a unified democratic state or a fractured sectarian country prone to foreign influence.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

45. PolicyWatch #1429: Livni vs. Netanyahu: From One Election to the Next

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 10, Israelis head to their first national election in nearly three years. With the exception of the 1977 election, this will be the only Israeli campaign in which no incumbent has run for the office of prime minister. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads the Kadima party, which is neck and neck with Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party; each is expected to garner approximately 30 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament. Since their views on the peace process differ, the election's outcome will directly affect U.S. regional policy and the future of the Annapolis process.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

46. PolicyWatch #1397: Kirkuk Derails Iraq's Election Law

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 7, the Iraqi parliament went on summer recess after failing to pass a critical election law, delaying the country's provincial elections until sometime next year. The failure comes after the parliament successfully passed the law on July 22, only to be vetoed by the Iraqi Presidency Council in less than thirty-six hours. The core dispute involves the oil-rich Kirkuk province, which is currently witnessing an alarming escalation of demonstrations and politically motivated attacks. This forced Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to send his defense minister and an Iraqi brigade to the region in an attempt to deter further problems. As a result of Baghdad's political squabbling, the desperately needed provincial elections may seem unattainable.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

47. PolicyWatch #1393: Olmert's Announcement Fuels Uncertainty in Israel

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced yesterday that he will not compete in his party's September primary and will resign as premier once a new leader is elected. The move ends Olmert's two and half years as Israeli premier, a post he took up after Ariel Sharon's debilitating stroke in January 2006. High-profile allegations of financial wrongdoing have cast a shadow over his administration in past months, and until recently, he pledged he would only leave if there were a formal indictment. His announcement comes at a critical time for Israel and will certainly lead to sense of uncertainty about the future.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

48. PolicyWatch #1391: Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

49. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

50. PolicyWatch #1380: Ahmadinezhad Deflects Critcism with Attacks on Clerics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In late May, an official close to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad publicly accused more than forty high-ranking government officials -- including some of the country's most powerful clerics -- of economic corruption. These unprecedented revelations may signal the start of a significant power struggle inside the Iranian government, one likely to intensify between now and the May 2009 presidential election.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East