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1. The Future of Neutrality

Author:
Pascal Lottaz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Neutrality is a naturally occurring phenomenon. There have always been actors on the world stage that have remained outside the conflicts of others, be they countries, religious institutions or international organisations (IOs). Even during the two world wars and the first Cold War (i.e. the US and its allies versus the USSR and its allies), some actors managed to avoid the battlefields or claimed a position separate from the various alliance systems. Despite the beliefs of some commentators that neutrality is coming to an end, there is no indication that world politics is actually about to change dramatically enough to eradicate the reasons and logic for neutrality. In fact, the least conductive international environment for neutrality – unipolarity – seems to be ending. What could be called the “New Cold War” (the West-aligned countries versus Russia in Europe and versus China in Asia) and the emerging multipolar world will likely produce the dynamics leading to more neutrality as a counter-reaction to the new great power rivalry. We should expect neutrality and neutralism – i.e. political movements demanding the adoption of neutrality policies – to strengthen. Nevertheless, neutrality is shifting. It is moving from Europe to other regions of the world, and, in the process, will likely also change conceptually. This Policy Brief will first describe the nature of neutrality and the three basic motivations for actors to opt for its policies. It then discusses the challenges any neutrality policy faces and will conclude by providing concrete recommendations for policymakers seeking to maintain neutrality vis-à-vis either hot or cold conflicts.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Neutrality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:
Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Recent technological and political developments in OSCE participating States suggest a strong interest in pursuing, testing and using weaponised AI and weapons systems with increasingly autonomous features controlled by algorithms. In May 2021 Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had begun producing combat robots “capable of fighting on their own”,1 while the French Army is planning to introduce robotic systems by 2040.2 The United Kingdom (UK) government has stated its objective of achieving “a leading role in critical and emerging technologies”3 and has established a Defence Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy Unit to better understand them.4 In the United States, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence has urged the government “not [to] be a witness to the AI revolution in military affairs”.5 The global discussion about autonomous weapons systems is often framed in a futuristic way and focuses on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) – colloquially called “killer robots” – or the “AI arms race”. But weaponised AI is already a reality of European security. Thus far participating States have been reluctant to utilise the OSCE platform to address the risks caused by the increasing autonomy of weapons systems. Building on this issue, this essay intends to address the following questions: (1) how does the lack of regulation of weaponised AI affect security and stability in Europe? and (2) what role can the OSCE play in mitigating the risks related to weaponised AI?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Blockchain has the potential to revolutionise our societies by radically transforming multiple sectors ranging from financial services to health care, and from international trade to logistics.1 Governments, businesses, research centres, and international organisations are becoming increasingly interested in this cutting-edge technology because it can be utilised to provide a decentralised system for data management with high levels of transparency, reliability, and security.2 Recently, inter- governmental organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the OSCE have emphasised the relevance of blockchain, which can be utilised to improve international security.3 Blockchain has already proved that it can effectively enhance human security. For instance, the World Food Programme has pioneered a blockchain-based humanitarian aid programme to support refugees in Jordan with the use of cryptocurrencies.4 Similarly, the International Committee of the Red Cross has developed a distributed ledger technology (DLT)-based local trading system in Kenya to help fragile communities.5 In 2015 the UN International Children’s Emergency Fund even launched “Unicoin” – its own cryptocurrency – which children from poor families can exchange for goods. Although researchers have been exploring the impact of this technology on multiple fields, the implications of blockchain-based systems for CAC are still under-explored. This paper aims to fill this research gap by demonstrating that blockchain can play a crucial role in enhancing CAC monitoring and verification. It argues that blockchain offers a positive behavioural model and has advantageous practical implications for conventional arms control. The analysis is guided by the following research questions: (1) what psychological impact does blockchain have on confidence building? and (2) how do smart contracts enhance CAC?
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, and Blockchain
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:
Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Our Digital Future: The Security Implications of Metaverses

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Frederico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Although the concept of a metaverse or metaverses is not new, current developments in the creation of possible metaverses offer credible prospects of generating increasingly immersive digital experiences that will also provide people with more information, connections and knowledge than ever before. However, metaverses are also likely to exacerbate existing risks surrounding the increased digitalisation of our lives and the role of social media companies in our societies, such as the spread of disinformation or increased societal polarisation. Similarly, technology companies’capacity to collect private data and profile users will also increase. Growing levels of immersivity will reinforce risks such as increased digital crime or extremist radicalisation, but will also create new ones that pertain to cognitive manipulations. This could lead to the transformation of social organisations and a questioning of the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Metaverses also offer new dimensions for power politics and geopolitical confrontations, and a platform for conducting cognitive warfare. Responsible innovations and security-by-design must be the guiding principles of efforts to develop metaverses.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Social Media, Innovation, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Securing AI-based Security Systems

Author:
Sandra Scott-Hayward
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Fundamental weaknesses of AI include brittleness, embedded bias, catastrophic forgetting and lack of explainability. Although research is under way to address some of these issues, the adoption of AI techniques and models in security systems exposes potentially critical security systems to weaknesses/vulnerabilities such as these. Adversarial training is one strongly recommended approach to increase the robustness (i.e. reduce the brittleness) of the AI model. In this approach, the training dataset is extended to include adversarial examples representative of potential attacks on the system. However, the implementation of adversarial training is currently ad hoc. Given the evidence of AI weaknesses, the omission of adversarial training and similar hardening techniques for AI-based security systems is unacceptable. Standardised testing and evaluation of AI-based security systems is recommended. From a governance perspective, evidence of adversarial robustness evaluation should be a minimum requirement for the acceptance of an AI-based security system. The production of strong adversarial samples does not account for “black swan” events, i.e. random and unexpected events that have an extreme impact. Given that security systems tend to be designed to detect “old” or “known” types of attack, ways need to be found to manage the occurrence of “new” attacks.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:
Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics

Author:
Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:
Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus