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671. Global Imbalances: Do They Matter?

Author:
Miranda Xafa
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article reviews the recent literature on global imbalances and discusses the policy implications of the various theories that have been advanced to explain their unprecedented increase. Most of these theories fit the stylized facts, namely, the steady increase in the U.S. current account deficit, the shift to a surplus position of the developing countries, and the low nominal and real interest rates globally. The “low U.S. savings” theory—reflecting the increase in the fiscal deficit and in housing wealth—views the current account deficit as the result of fiscal and monetary policy decisions in the United States that need to be urgently reversed to prevent a crash landing. Other theories however, focusing on developments outside the United States, portfolio balance effects, or previously neglected benign factors, do not yield such a doomsday scenario. It is relevant to note that there is no historical precedent of disorderly exchange rate adjustment in industrial countries that keep inflation under control (Croke, Kamin, and Leduc 2005). Concerns over a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances therefore appear exaggerated. This view, prevalent among market participants and several prominent academics, has not been widely embraced by policymakers.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economy, Wealth, and Savings
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

672. Why the U.S. External Imbalance Matters

Author:
William R Cline
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Last year the U.S. current account deficit (mainly on trade but including capital income and transfers) reached almost 7 percent of GDP, or about twice as large a share as in 1987, the peak of the previous episode of large external imbalances and dollar overvaluation. A major reason is that from 1995 to 2002 the dollar rose by 28 percent against other currencies, after taking account of inflation and weighting by trade. A strong dollar made U.S. exports expensive and imports cheap, driving up the trade deficit after about a two-year reaction time. With large and persistent external deficits, the United States has swung from being the world’s largest creditor nation to its largest debtor, with net foreign liabilities now at about one-fourth of GDP. The dollar has corrected somewhat and is now about 13 percent lower on a trade-weighted basis than its average in 2002, based on the Federal Reserve’s broad real exchange rate index. Without that partial correction the trade deficit would now be even larger. It will likely require a decline of an additional 15 to 20 percent in the dollar to cut the current account deficit back to about 3 percent of GDP. That rate would be consistent with limiting net foreign liabilities to 50 percent of GDP in the long term. Exceeding that ceiling would seem imprudent for both the U.S. and global economies. It will be crucial that China, Japan, and much of the rest of Asia participate in realignment of their currencies against the dollar, because the decline of the dollar so far has been heavily concentrated against the euro and other industrial country currencies except for the Japanese yen. Dollar correction will also need to be accompanied by fiscal adjustment. Otherwise much of the competitive effect of the dollar adjustment would be offset by higher inflation and a dollar rebound from higher interest rates. Fundamentally the external deficit is the excess of resources used over resources produced, and with U.S. household saving near zero, the government cannot be a large net borrower without keeping the nation in large external deficit.
Topic:
Government, Finance, Economy, Currency, and Deficit
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

673. Economic Freedom and Net Business Formation

Author:
Noel D. Campbell and Tammy M. Rogers
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Economic freedom indexes, especially the Fraser Institute/Cato Institute Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index and the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom, are becoming increasingly important as researchers seek to explore the link between economic freedom and prosperity. The consistent finding is that nations with more economic freedom—as indicated by security of property rights, free trade, limited government, low marginal tax rates, and so forth—enjoy higher per capita incomes and general living conditions compared with countries that are less free.1 In a less aggregated study, Karabegovic et al. (2003) find that differences in economic freedom across U.S. states and Canadian provinces are significantly and positively related to differences in the level and growth of economic activity across states and provinces. Various researchers have used the Economic Freedom of North America (EFNA) index, published by the Fraser Institute (Karabegovic, McMahon, and Mitchell 2005), to address questions of income differentials between states, income growth, and entrepreneurship.2 Scholars have also used the EFNA index to study migration. Ashby (2007), not surprisingly, finds that people tend to move from less free to more free areas.
Topic:
Migration, Economy, Business, Free Trade, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Global Focus

674. Stockholders and Stakeholders: The Battle for Control of the Corporation

Author:
Donna Card Charron
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The American corporation is in trouble not only because of various immoral executives, but also because it is a target of sustained attacks. For several decades, corporate revisionists have toiled to transform the corporation from private to public property. Were they to succeed, the tragedy of the commons would slowly sap the corporation of its vitality. My objective in exposing the battle for corporate control is to urge and encourage those committed to the preservation of this highly performing institution to place the issue more prominently on their agenda. To this end, I detail the evolution of the battle and assess the present state of affairs. In so doing, I describe and critique “stakeholder theory,” the revisionist’s chosen weapon for gaining control of the corporation. Stakeholder theory currently dominates textbooks and syllabi of courses in business management, human resource management, marketing, and public policy. It colors the decisions of many corporate executives. And it controls the thinking in the majority of business ethics centers. Aware of its reach, I adumbrate a strategy for reversing the destructive inroads of stakeholder theory.
Topic:
Business, Management, Corporations, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

675. Global Imbalances: A Source of Strength or Weakness?

Author:
Kristin J. Forbes
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Gross capital flows into the United States totaled $1.8 trillion in 2006. When combined with the $1.0 trillion the United States sent abroad, these net capital inflows funded the U.S. current account deficit of about $800 billion.1 The source of a large proportion of these capital inflows was developing economies—especially China and major oil exporters. Why are foreigners willing to invest such massive amounts of money in the U.S. economy? And perhaps even more surprising—why are countries with low levels of investment willing to send this relatively scarce resource to a capital-abundant economy instead of investing in their own countries? Understanding the motivation behind the millions of individual decisions that drive these capital inflows is critically important to understanding if this massive net transfer of capital into the United States reflects a strength or weakness of the global economy.
Topic:
Economy, Investment, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

676. The Welfare Implications of Global Financial Flows

Author:
Eswar Prasad
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Any discussion of whether the global financial system has served the world well requires us to think about what it is that capital flows could achieve in the best of circumstances. The basic neoclassical model suggests that, with rising financial globalization, capital should flow from rich to poor countries, making people in both sets of countries better off by enabling a more efficient international allocation of capital from countries where capital is less productive to those where it ought to be more productive. In addition, financial flows should allow for more efficient sharing of risk across countries, thereby facilitating the smoothing of national consumption against countryspecific shocks to national output. These benefits are likely to be greater for developing countries as they have less capital and more volatile growth, implying that both the growth and risk sharing benefits would be larger for them.
Topic:
Economy, Welfare, Capital, and Financial Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

677. The Benefits and Risks of Financial Globalization

Author:
Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
It is by now almost impossible to conceive of a world without a global financial system. To be sure, large numbers of low-income developing countries have little access to that system. But most middle-income developing countries, even some that still have capital controls of one sort or another, are increasingly integrated into that system, and all of the major developed countries are fully integrated.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Integration, and Financial Globalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

678. The Role of Monetary Policy in the Face of Crises

Author:
Anna J. Schwartz
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In this article I first review the Greenspan Fed’s record of providing liquidity in response to its perception of shocks the economy is facing. It assumed that the shocks were likely to generate financial crises. No financial crises, however, have occurred. Yet the Fed was dilatory in draining the market of unneeded liquidity. Failure to do so meant that monetary policy remained accommodative. I next discuss whether there is a connection between the Fed’s accommodative policy and the depreciation since 2002 of the exchange value of the dollar as well as the twin deficits and growing global imbalances. In that discussion I refer to the need to raise the national saving rate, in part by eliminating the budget deficit as well as projected deficits from the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare. Monetary policy, however, must be independent of fiscal policy. I conclude with some observations on the advisability of adoption by the Fed of inflation targeting.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

679. The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation: Currency Competition and Its Implications for Interest Rates and the Yield Curve

Author:
Randall S. Kroszner
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the United States and in virtually every country around the world, inflation has declined, and in most countries dramatically so. In addition, the volatility of inflation and expectations of future inflation have also fallen significantly. I will call these changes experienced around the globe the conquest of worldwide inflation. I will begin by providing a few facts about the substantial improvement of inflation during roughly the past decade compared with the quarter century that preceded it. I will then try to understand why this remarkable decline in inflation has taken place. In particular, I argue that globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, in part spurred by experiences of high inflation in the 1980s, have fostered currency competition that has led to improved central bank performance and, hence, the recent conquest of worldwide inflation. Friedrich Hayek (1976) had long ago advocated permitting greater competition among currencies, arguing that there would be a race to the top rather than a race to the bottom. Regardless of what one might think of Hayek’s policy proposals, technological change in a globalized and competitive marketplace, I believe, has increased competition among currencies issued by central banks.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Currency, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

680. Cato Education Market Index Full Technical Report

Author:
Andrew J. Coulson
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The index presented in this report attempts to measure how closely existing school systems resemble free markets and rates education policy proposals on how conducive they are to the rise of competitive marketplaces. We define an education market as a system that provides the freedom for producers and consumers to voluntarily associate with one another, as well as the incentives that encourage families to be diligent consumers and educators to innovate, control costs, and expand their services. It is a system in which schools can offer instruction in any subject, using any method, for which families are willing to pay.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Markets