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1. An Alternative Theoretical Framework for Economics

Author:
Meir Kohn
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As a profession, economics is thriving. The number of economists is large and growing. The volume of their output is exploding—more articles are published each year in a growing number of journals. As a science, however, economics is not doing so well. The questions addressed by all those articles seem to be getting smaller and smaller. And there seems to be little or no progress on the big questions of economics such as economic development and growth, economic fluctuations, and the proper role of government in the economy. Most of the articles published are econometric, and the results of many are of questionable quality.
Topic:
Economics, Research, Economic Theory, and Commerce
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. The Economic Policies of Lord Liverpool

Author:
Martin Hutchinson and Kevin Dowd
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Robert Banks Jenkinson, 2nd Earl of Liverpool (“Liverpool,” 1770–1828) was UK prime minister over the period 1812–1827. His achievements were remarkable. He designed the financial attrition strategy that defeated Napoleon; led the United Kingdom through the turbulence of the takeoff stage of the industrial revolution; inherited a daunting fiscal situation that included a debt/​GDP ratio of well over 200 percent, and implanted the austerity measures needed to put this ratio onto the path that led to later Victorian levels; reformed the currency; pushed through the return to the gold standard; promoted both the Corn Laws and free trade; successfully managed the 1825 financial crisis, the worst in over a century; and pushed through subsequent reforms that put the UK banking system onto a stable trajectory that lasted into the late 20th century.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The Economic Mentality of Nations

Author:
Pál Czeglédi, Brad Lips, and Carlos Newland
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Two hundred forty‐​five years after the publication of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, economists continue to debate the causes of disparities in wealth among the countries of the world. Some scholars focus on the role of climate, natural resources, proximity to markets, or access to technology. Others study human capital, capital accumulation, the use of comparative advantages and economies of scale, and institutional and legal frameworks. We believe that another factor must be considered as well: the economic attitudes and causal beliefs (henceforth, “mentality”) of the population. While a growing body of research shows a clear association between economic growth and the institutions of economic freedom, those institutions can be quite fragile if the population does not have a clear understanding of what makes a country prosperous. To measure popular attitudes toward economic values, we have created the Global Index of Economic Mentality (GIEM).
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Capitalism, Youth, and Free Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The War on Cash: Institutional Hostility and Covid‐​19

Author:
Edoardo Beretta and Doris Neuberger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There is significant economic literature investigating the hostility to cash or “war on cash” (Beretta 2005, 2007; Deutsche Bundesbank 2017; Jain 2017; Scott 2013; White 2018) by which financial institutions supported by governments discourage individuals from using (publicly issued) physical means of payments and convince them to move to digital (privately issued) ones.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Digitization, and Cash
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The Economic Impact of Tax Changes, 1920–1939

Author:
Alan Reynolds
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) investigate how high‐​income taxpayers faced with changes in marginal tax rates respond in ways that reduce expected revenue from higher tax rates, or raise more than expected from lower tax rates. Diamond and Saez (2011) pioneered the use of a statistical formula, which Saez developed, to convert an ETI estimate into a revenue‐​maximizing (“socially optimal”) top tax rate. For the United States, they found that the optimal top rate was about 73 percent when combining the marginal tax rates on income, payrolls, and sales at the federal, state, and local levels. A related paper by Piketty, Saez, and Stantcheva (2014) concluded that, at the highest income levels, the ETI was so small that comparable top tax rates as high as 83 percent could maximize short‐​term revenues, supposedly without suppressing long‐​term economic growth. Such studies could be viewed as part of a larger effort to minimize any efficiency costs of distortive taxation while maximizing assumed revenue gains and redistributive benefits.
Topic:
Economics, History, Tax Systems, and High-Income People
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

6. Cryptocurrencies and All That: Two Ideas from Monetary Economics

Author:
Jesús Fernández‐​Villaverde
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The monetary arrangements of societies are the result of the interplay of technology and ideas. Technology determines, for example, which coins can be minted and at what cost. For centuries, minting small‐​denomination coinage was too costly to induce Western European governments to supply enough small change (Sargent and Velde 2002). Only the arrival of steam‐​driven presses fixed this problem (Doty 1998). Simultaneously, ideas about private property and the scope of government determined whether private entrepreneurs were allowed to compete with governments in the supply of small change (Selgin 2008). Technology and ideas about money engage dialectically. Technological advances shape our ideas about money by making new monetary arrangements feasible. Ideas about desirable outcomes direct innovators to develop new technologies.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Monetary Policy, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

7. Assessing State Capacity Libertarianism

Author:
Ryan H. Murphy and Colin O'Reilly
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Tyler Cowen (2020), in a controversial and widely discussed blog post, has argued that free economic institutions must be accompanied by state capacity to achieve maximal growth rates. He calls this “State Capacity Libertarianism,” which echoes positions he has posed previously (Cowen 2007, 2018). Besley and Persson (2011) can be perhaps seen as a direct predecessor. Criticisms immediately emerged, with Henderson (2020) arguing that Cowen’s specific proposals are in direct conflict with libertarianism, and with minor caveats, free economic institutions are already able to achieve the goals Cowen hopes to achieve with state capacity. Geloso and Salter (forthcoming) argue that the lack of examples of wealthy countries with weak states is due to survivorship bias, and they apply their argument to criticize Cowen (Geloso and Salter 2020). Caplan (2018), while not directly addressing State Capacity Libertarianism, argues that there is little reason to believe that the effects of state capacity are the result of strong states themselves, rather than the social and cultural factors that allowed a strong state to emerge in the first place. The purpose of this article is to put data to the question of the individual effects of state capacity and free economic institutions on economic performance, and the potential interaction between the two.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, State, and Libertarianism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Economic Liberalizations Around the World Since 1970: Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism

Author:
Kerianne N. Lawson and Robert A. Lawson
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article examines 77 countries with the most significant economic liberalizations since 1970, as measured by changes in the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. Measures of both the speed and comprehensiveness of the reforms are presented. Our empirical evidence suggests that faster reforming nations economically outperformed slower reformers. We do not find evidence that more comprehensive reforms, as opposed to more narrowly targeted reforms, had much of an impact on ensuing economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Economic Growth, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. The Case for a New International Monetary System

Author:
Judy Shelton
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
How often do we hear references to the notion that we live in a rules-based global trading system? Addressing the World Economic Forum at Davos in January 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May praised liberalism, free trade, and globalization as “the forces that underpin the rules-based international system that is key to our global prosperity and security” (Martin 2017). Chinese President Xi Jinping likewise extolled the virtues of a rules-based economic order at Davos, winning widespread praise for defending free trade and globalization (Fidler, Chen, and Wei 2017). But could someone please explain: What exactly are those rules? Because if we are going to invoke the sentimentality of Bretton Woods by suggesting that the world has remained true to its precepts, we are ignoring geopolitical reality. Moreover, we are denying the warped economic consequences of global trade conducted in the absence of orderly currency arrangements. We have not had a rules-based international monetary system since President Nixon ended the Bretton Woods agreement in August 1971. Today there are compelling reasons—political, economic, and strategic—for President Trump to initiate the establishment of a new international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Extending the Economic Freedom of the World Index to the Cold War Era

Author:
Ryan Murphy and Robert A. Lawson
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article uses newly gathered and available data and autoregressive methods to create an economic freedom index for the 1950s and 1960s for up to 95 countries. The resulting index allows not only for a longer time series but also for a larger sample of countries than has been previously available.
Topic:
Economics, History, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World: The Case for Rules

Author:
James A. Dorn
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since monetary policy operates in an uncertain world, discretionary policymaking relying on macroeconomic models of the economy is a weak reed upon which to base policy. The complexity of economic systems and constant changes in the underlying data mean errors may occur in a discretionary regime that can lead to monetary and financial instability.1 The 2008 financial crisis is a case in point: central bankers and their expert staffs failed to anticipate the crisis, and may have worsened it by keeping policy rates too low for too long (Taylor 2012). Moving to a rules‐​based regime would not eliminate radical uncertainty, but it could decrease institutional uncertainty—or what Robert Higgs (1997) has called “regime uncertainty”—and thus reduce the frequency of policy errors. Higgs focused on the uncertainty caused by fiscal and regulatory policies that attenuated private property rights by decreasing expected returns on capital. A discretionary monetary regime increases uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money and thereby undermines an important property right.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic structure, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. The G20 and Global Governance

Author:
Stephen Kirchner
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Group of 20 sees itself as “the premier forum for international economic cooperation” (G20 2009b). This article examines its evolution and performance, and member countries’ compliance with G20 summit commitments. The G20 evolved as a response to the shortcomings of its predecessor, the G7/8. Yet its creation allowed member countries to avoid confronting many of the problems that arose out of the earlier forum. The best defense of the G20 is that it is the only institution of its type, but it still consumes scarce political and diplomatic capital, sometimes to the detriment of the policy objectives to which it is notionally committed. In this article, I compare data on members’ compliance with G20 summit commitments to proxy measures of the quality of domestic policies and institutions. While the proxies predict G20 compliance, it turns out that G20 compliance has no power to predict subsequent changes in domestic policies and institutions. The main implication of this data is that international economic and political cooperation is a symptom, not a cause, of domestic policies and institutions. Improvement in domestic policies makes the best contribution to advancing the G20 agenda, but such improvements do not appear to depend on the G20 process.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Rethinking the International Monetary System

Author:
John B. Taylor
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In previous articles in the annual monetary issue of the Cato Journal, I drew on historical facts and economic theory to explain the benefits of rules-based monetary policy and why legislation could help the United States reap those benefits (Taylor 2011, 2013a). In this article, I discuss the international aspects of monetary policy, a subject often glossed over in modern debates about rules-based policy, at least compared with discussions about the classic rulesbased gold standard.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

14. The Case against a Carbon Tax

Author:
Robert P. Murphy, Patrick J. Michaels, and Paul "Chip" Knappenberger
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
A vigorous campaign aimed at American policymakers and the general public has tried to create the perception that a federal carbon tax (or similar type of “carbon price”) is a crucial element in the urgently needed response to climate change. Within conservative and libertarian circles, a small but vocal group of academics, analysts, and political officials are claiming that a revenue-neutral carbon tax swap could even deliver a “double dividend” — meaning that the conventional economy would be spurred in addition to any climate benefits. The present study details several serious problems with these claims. The actual economics of climate change — as summarized in the peer-reviewed literature as well as the U.N. and Obama Administration reports — reveal that the case for a U.S. carbon tax is weaker than the public has been told.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting

Author:
Julio Garin, Robert Lester, and Eric Sims
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the welfare properties of nominal GDP targeting in the context of a New Keynesian model with both price and wage rigidity. In particular, we compare nominal GDP targeting to inflation and output gap targeting as well as to a conventional Taylor rule. These comparisons are made on the basis of welfare losses relative to a hypothetical equilibrium with flexible prices and wages. Output gap targeting is the most desirable of the rules under consideration, but nominal GDP targeting performs almost as well. Nominal GDP targeting is associated with smaller welfare losses than a Taylor rule and significantly outperforms inflation targeting. Relative to inflation targeting and a Taylor rule, nominal GDP targeting performs best conditional on supply shocks and when wages are sticky relative to prices. Nominal GDP targeting may outperform output gap targeting if the gap is observed with noise, and has more desirable properties related to equilibrium determinacy than does gap targeting.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, Markets, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. The Supply of Transaction Assets, Nominal Income, and Monetary Policy Transmission

Author:
Joshua R. Hendrickson and David Beckworth
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the last few years, the Federal Reserve has conducted a series of large scale asset purchases. Given the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the objective of this policy has been to generate an increase in real economic activity while maintaining a low, stable rate of inflation. The effectiveness of large scale asset purchases and the ability of the central bank to achieve a particular target has been subject to debate. The monetary transmission mechanism is of primary importance for understanding the effects of both the recent large scale asset purchases and of monetary policy more generally. The purpose of this paper is to propose a monetary transmission mechanism and to present empirical support for this mechanism. In particular, this paper suggests that monetary policy is transmitted through changes in the growth rate of transaction assets through both a direct and indirect effect. First, an increase in the growth rate of the monetary base, whether through lump sum transfers or open market operations, generates a real balance effect that increases real economic activity. Second, the indirect effect is through bank lending. Since bank loans are often a function of nominal income, expansionary monetary policy increases bank lending. Since economics agents are forward-looking and the the effects of monetary policy are persistent, monetary policy is transmitted through the expected future time path of the growth of transaction assets and nominal income. This characteristic is especially important in light of the policy recommendations of Sumner (2011, 2012) and Woodford (2012), in which the central bank attaches an explicit target for the level of nominal income to large-scale asset purchases.1
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Federal Reserve
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. International Developments in the Insurance Sector: The Road to Financial Instability?

Author:
Therese M. Vaughan and Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
International activity related to the regulation and supervision of financial services has exploded since the global financial crisis. The crisis exposed weaknesses in the structure for regulating internationally active banks, and motivated a number of work streams aimed at strengthening standards (most notably, significant revisions to the Basel capital standard for internationally active banks, now known as Basel III). The insurance sector was also stressed by the meltdown in financial markets that occurred in 2007-2008, albeit far less than the banking sector, and, with the exception of AIG, it is generally recognized that insurers played little role in the financial crisis, and that traditional insurance activities do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system.1,2 Nonetheless, the insurance sector has also been targeted for a new stream of regulatory initiatives at the international level. The most important organizations with respect to these activities are the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB), both based in Basel, Switzerland. The purpose of this paper is to review these developments and to highlight potential concerns for U.S. insurance markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus