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2. The Wests's Turkey Conundrum
- Author:
- Amanda Sloat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Policymakers in the United States and European Union are struggling with how to manage their relations with Turkey. What makes the country such a conundrum is that its problematic leadership faces real threats. Turkey is confronting challenges from the aftermath of the July 2016 coup attempt and the destabilizing effects of the Syrian war. Yet the country’s president is growing more authoritarian, using virulent anti-Western rhetoric, and making foreign policy choices contrary to the interests of the trans-Atlantic alliance. The policy goal is navigating this gray zone today to preserve the possibility of better relations in the future.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
3. Normal is Over
- Author:
- Constanze Stelzenmüller
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Year one of the Trump administration has been uniquely unnerving. Yet the trans-Atlantic security community has also been breathing a sigh of relief, because many of their worst expectations seem to have been averted: trade wars, an attack on North Korea, the end of NATO. The conventional wisdom in Washington, DC and many European capitals today is that—despite a president who continues to defy conventions—U.S.-European relations have largely normalized. As a result, most Europeans are attempting to ride out what they believe to be a temporary aberration of American politics with a mixture of hugging and hedging. There is certainly evidence for a normalization of U.S. foreign policy, not least in the president’s formal endorsement of NATO’s mutual defense clause, and the reinforcement of American contributions to reassurance and deterrence in Eastern Europe. There are also many signs that the past year has re-energized American civil society, belying determinist critics in Europe. But Trumpism needs to be recognized as a massive discontinuity. Trump is the first postwar American president to question the liberal order as such. In its purest form, the “America First” doctrine has implications for the EU and some of its member states (especially Germany) that should be of intense concern to Europeans. Europeans should worry even more, however, about its fundamentalist critique of globalization (which it refers to as globalism) as a quasiadversarial ideology. The globalization-globalism dichotomy, unlike all previous transAtlantic disagreements, is a dispute about the nature of the world we live in. And it is a wedge that could drive the United States and Europe apart. America could attempt (at immense cost to itself) to decouple from the liberal world order and the global economy. But for Europe to do so would be suicidal. This flips the existing logic of the trans-Atlantic alliance on its head: it is Europe now that has the greater—and for it, existential—interest in preserving an international order that safeguards peace and globalization
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. Afghanistan Affectations How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition
- Author:
- Vanda Felbab-Brown
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- In “Afghanistan Affectations,” a detailed report published by the United Nations University Centre for Policy Research’s Crime-Conflict Nexus Series in April 2017, Vanda Felbab-Brown assesses how counterinsurgency, stabilization, and reconstruction dynamics have interacted with organized crime, illicit economies, and generalized predatory criminality since 2001 and warped and weakened the post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction efforts.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
5. Renegotiating NAFTA: Options for investment protection
- Author:
- Geoffrey Gertz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump has promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which links the United States with two of its largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Officials in both Canada and Mexico have signaled they are open to renegotiations, and talks are expected to begin soon. New commerce secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated he hopes the negotiations could be completed within a year.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- America, Canada, and Mexico
6. Non-proliferation challenges facing the Trump administration
- Author:
- Robert Einhorn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The global nuclear non-proliferation regime, as it has evolved since the entry into force of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, has been remarkably resilient. Despite predictions of a “cascade of proliferation,” there are currently only nine states with nuclear weapons, and that number has remained the same for the past 25 years.[1] The NPT is nearly universal, with 190 parties and only five non-parties (India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, South Sudan). Several countries voluntarily abandoned nuclear weapons development programs (Argentina, Brazil, Egypt); several others were forced diplomatically or militarily to give up the quest (Iraq, Libya, South Korea, Syria); three former Soviet republics inherited nuclear weapons but gave them up (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine); and one country built a small arsenal before unilaterally eliminating it (South Africa). With Iran’s path to nuclear weapons blocked by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for at least 10 to 15 years, there are no non-nuclear weapon states currently believed to be pursuing nuclear weapons, according to U.S. government sources. And despite cases of nuclear smuggling and continuing interest of terrorist groups in acquiring nuclear weapons, no thefts of enough fissile material to build a bomb are believed to have taken place.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. India and the United States in the Trump era: Re-evaluating bilateral and global relations
- Author:
- Dhruva Jaishankar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s election at a time of growing and converging interests between India and the United States necessitates a re-evaluation of several aspects of Indian domestic and foreign policy. This paper identifies four areas in which Trump’s election affects Indian interests: bilateral relations (encompassing trade, investment, immigration, and technological cooperation), the Asian balance of power, counterterrorism, and global governance. It argues that India must continue to engage with the Trump administration and other stakeholders in the United States—including the U.S. Congress, state governments, and the private sector—in all of these areas. New Delhi must attempt to convince Washington that India’s rise is in American interest. This idea provided the underlying logic behind the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations’ engagement with India, but it will be more difficult to sustain given the United States’ new political realities and impulses.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and India
8. Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs on economic development
- Author:
- David Dollar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Global value chains (GVCs) break up the production process so different steps can be carried out in different countries. Many smart phones and televisions, for example, are designed in the United States or Japan. They have sophisticated inputs, such as semiconductors and processors, which are produced in the Republic of Korea or Chinese Taipei. And they are assembled in China. They are then marketed and receive after-sale servicing in Europe and the United States. These complex global production arrangements have transformed the nature of trade. But their complexity has also created difficulties in understanding trade and in formulating policies that allow firms and governments to capitalize on GVCs and to mitigate negative side effects.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. A Framework for U.S. Policy toward China
- Author:
- Jeffrey Bader
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Serious people understand that the manner in which the United States deals with China will be a critical, if not the critical, overseas chal- lenge for the United States in the 21st century. China will likely be the largest economy in the world within one or two decades; the second or third strongest military soon, if not already; and competitive with the United States and Europe in global economic, and perhaps political and cultural, influence in some regions. China is ruled by a Communist Par- ty resistant to political liberalization at home and wedded to nationalist rhetoric and behavior in dealing with its neighborhood, enhancing the chances for rivalry with the United States. For those students of history who see conflict as the likely outcome when ris- ing powers encounter dominant powers, these are precursors of a dark future. How should we deal with China? What policy framework best optimizes our interests, which are multiple and not always consistent with each oth- er? Americans are in the midst of an ongoing presidential campaign that, in a better world, would be asking and answering such questions, but this is not such a campaign.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and America
10. Nuclear Arms Control Choices for the Next Administration
- Author:
- Steven Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- rms control has figured on the agenda between Washington and Moscow since the 1960s. Suc- cessive U.S. administrations since that of Richard Nixon have pursued negotiated arms control arrangements to limit and reduce the number of Soviet (and Russian) nuclear weapons, to enhance strategic stability, to increase transparency and predictability, to reduce the costs of U.S. nuclear forces, and to bolster America’s non-proliferation credentials. Negotiations on arms control have proceeded in times of both good and difficult relations. At times, progress on arms control has helped drive a more positive over- all relationship between Washington and Moscow. At other times, differences over arms control and related issues have contributed to a downward slide in rela- tions. The next president will take office in January 2017, when the overall U.S.-Russia relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America