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51. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Patrick Douglass
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Despite an erosion of consensus on its benefits, capital account convertibility remains a long-term goal of China. This paper identifies three major preconditions for convertibility in China: a strong domestic banking system, relatively developed domestic financial markets, and an equilibrium exchange rate. The authors examine each of these in turn and find that, in significant respects, China does not yet meet any of the conditions necessary for convertibility. They then evaluate China's progress to date on capital account liberalization, including recent efforts to promote renminbi internationalization and greater use of the renminbi in trade settlement. The paper concludes with an overview of remaining obstacles to convertibility and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China

52. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data, which for exchange rates are the average rates of April 2011, and for the IMF's balance of payments forecasts, those published in the April 2011 issue of World Economic Outlook (WEO; see IMF 2011a). It is the central study in what has now become a regular annual cycle, in which we draw out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. This past year we also published an interim policy brief (Cline and Williamson 2010b) in which we updated our calculations to the average exchange rates of October 2010, as well as commented on Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's description of international monetary events as constituting "currency wars." As in the previous year, however, the November 2010 policy brief updated our estimates only for intervening changes in market exchange rates. We did not make use of the IMF's revised autumn WEO forecasts to update our estimates of FEERs; on the contrary, we assumed the FEERs estimated in May 2010 were correct. In contrast, this policy brief presents totally new estimates of FEERs.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

53. The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round

Author:
Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Francis Ng
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

54. Getting Surplus Countries to Adjust

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The world has witnessed two distinct attempts to build a multilateral mechanism to discipline surplus countries that declined to adjust their surpluses, and several proposals are currently on the table to do the same. On the two previous occasions the major surplus country of the day defeated attempts to create such a mechanism, and today China (not to mention Japan or Germany) exhibits no enthusiasm for the idea. Despite the importance of the issue, there has been remarkably little discussion of these proposals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Germany

55. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel

56. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

57. New PPP-Based Estimates of Renminbi Undervaluation and Policy Implications

Author:
Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Is there reason to add to the proliferating set of estimates on the extent of renminbi undervaluation (see among others, Bergsten 2010; Cline and Williamson 2008 and 2010; Goldstein and Lardy 2008 and 2009; Frankel 2008; Reisen 2009; and Lee et al. 2008)? Yes, not least because these new estimates: (1) suggest that purchasing power parity (PPP)-based approaches to measuring renminbi undervaluation suggest that China's currency is undervalued by about 30 percent against the dollar and not the 12 percent recently reported (Bajaj 2010); and (2) are closer to and consistent with alternative approaches to estimating renminbi undervaluation.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China

58. Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On Sunday, June 13, 2010 representatives from China and Taiwan held a third round of talks in Beijing on an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that would liberalize important aspects of cross-Strait economic relations. Details of what was agreed and what remains under negotiation are still trickling out, and in any case the nature of this framework is that various elements will be agreed upon on an ongoing basis rather than at once. But it is clear from available details that ECFA will be an ambitious accord that fundamentally changes the game between Taiwan and China and hence affects the regional economy and even the transpacific tempo for the United States.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Taiwan

59. Renminbi Undervaluation, China's Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On June 21, 2010, in the run-up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, China announced that it would shift to a more flexible exchange rate policy. From mid-June to July 30 the yuan rose 0.8 percent against the dollar. In contrast, the currency had remained fixed (at about 6.83 yuan to the dollar) from September 2008 to early June 2010. Pressure not only from the United States and the European Union but also from Russia, Brazil, and India as well as the IMF seems likely to have played a role in China's decision, although concerns about domestic inflation may also have been a factor.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

60. The G-20 and International Financial Institution Governance

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses the agenda for the Group of Twenty (G-20) leaders' meeting in Seoul, Korea in November 2010. This is an opportunity and challenge for Asian leaders in particular. Their test will be, first, to demonstrate that they can responsibly advance economic recovery. They must also deliver on institutional reform, in particular of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I advocate a substantial expansion of the IMF's role as lender of last resort that is integrated with the surveillance role of the IMF in the form of comprehensive prequalification for IMF assistance and policy advice and a substantial increase in the IMF's financial resources. I also propose an approach to meaningful reform of the distribution of IMF quotas along with limiting European seats on the IMF executive board.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Asia, and Korea