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152. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around $1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the United States and the euro area. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
153. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis: An Update
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Getting the diagnosis right is a prerequisite for understanding the euro area predicament and evaluating key decisions taken since early 2010. As we laid out in Bergsten and Kirkegaard (2012), while the euro area faces multiple overlapping and mutually reinforcing elements of fiscal (Greece), banking (Ireland/Spain), and competitiveness (Southern periphery) crises, it is first and foremost facing a crisis of institutional design. The common currency as designed in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is a half-built house without the critical components of banking and fiscal union necessary to sustain it through the type of crushing economic and financial down- turn witnessed since October 2008.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
154. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
155. Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Long Journey Towards Banking Union
- Author:
- Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
156. Southern Europe Ignores Lessons from Latvia at Its Peril
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, and Latvia
157. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications
- Author:
- Peter A. Petri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
158. Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
159. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2012
- Author:
- William R. Cline and John Williamson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data. For exchange rates, we apply the average rates of April 2012, while for the International Monetary Fund's balance of payments forecasts, we use the April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook (henceforth WEO; see IMF 2012a). This study is the fifth in an annual series, begun in 2008, in which we have used the spring WEO as the basis for drawing out implications for exchange rate changes needed if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. In addition, in semiannual updates (most recently in November 2011), we have tracked interim changes in exchange rates but not reestimated the underlying FEERs for the year in question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
160. Right Idea, Wrong Direction: Obama's Corporate Tax Reform Proposals
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
161. Japan Post: Anti-Reform Law Clouds Japan's Entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Our last policy brief on this long-running saga recounted political machinations, late in 2011, to reverse the Koizumi era reforms of Japan Post, a giant among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). As a brief background: Japan Post is a conglomerate of five companies: the parent, Japan Post Holdings; two subsidiaries concerned with operating post offices and delivering mail, namely Japan Post Network and Japan Post Services; and two giant financial arms, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Israel
162. Will the World Trade Organization Enjoy a Bright Future?
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Our answer is a resounding “yes.” This answer does not rest simply on the World Trade Organization's proven competence as a judicial body nor its acknowledged expertise in gathering statistics and analyzing trends. Crowning these strengths, we see the dawn of a new era of trade and investment negotiations within the halls of the WTO.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
163. Framework for the International Services Agreement
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and J. Bradford Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Services trade continues to be the most dynamic part of world trade, and service sectors have long been the largest destination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Higher GDP growth goes hand-in-hand with service sector growth. Yet, despite these positive attributes, little progress has been achieved in multilateral talks to liberalize services trade and investment. There is something very wrong about this picture—the disjuncture between stalled service negotiations in Geneva, the excessive focus on other components of the Doha Round to the neglect of services, and the rapid expansion of services trade and investment across borders. The time has come for an International Services Agreement (ISA) in which self-selected World Trade Organization (WTO) members voluntarily agree to new rules and market access commitments. The ISA would be distinct from a multilateral undertaking, like the Doha Round, that must gain the consent of all WTO members. Instead, it would be akin to the Agreement on Government Procurement, in which the market access benefits are confined to the agreement's members, but the agreement itself is open to all WTO members that are willing to accept its disciplines and commitments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
164. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and America
165. Does Monetary Cooperation or Confrontation Lead to Successful Fiscal Consolidation?
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen, Tomas Hellebrandt, and Marilyne Tolle
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Active accommodation of fiscal consolidations by monetary policy is controversial, as can be seen in current euro area discussions. While many observers acknowledge that there is usually a place for monetary accommodation in response to fiscal consolidation, a sequencing argument is often heard today that fiscal commitment must precede any loosening. Some analysts go further to suggest that toughness by central banks taking a hard line on adjustment is critical to inducing sustained fiscal stabilization. This policy brief looks at the recent historical record of central bank behavior vis-à-vis fiscal authorities, at least until the current crisis period, and whether accommodative approaches ahead of consolidations have proven dangerous or helpful. The authors also try to assess the market credibility of fiscal consolidations as a function of the central banks' monetary stance prior to fiscal consolidation. They find clear evidence of positive associations between the degree of monetary ease in advance of fiscal consolidation programs and both those programs' success and their market credibility.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
166. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
167. Overlooked Opportunity: Tradable Business Services, Developing Asia, and Growth
- Author:
- J. Bradford Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that developing Asia is overlooking an opportunity for increased growth and development through trade in business services. Developing Asia would benefit from liberalizing services trade as it has benefited from liberalizing goods trade. This argument rests on these key findings: business services are important for growth, developing Asia is relatively under-endowed with business services, many business services are tradable, and developing Asia has relatively high barriers to services trade.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Asia
168. Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises
- Author:
- Samuel Reynard
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation developments has remained stable and similar in crisis and normal times. This analysis can explain why the financial crisis in Argentina in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation, whereas Japan experienced deflation in the 1990s and 2000s despite quantitative easing. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
169. The Services Sector in Asia: Is It an Engine of Growth?
- Author:
- Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The underdeveloped services sector in Asia has the potential to become a new engine of economic growth in developing Asia, which has traditionally relied on export-oriented manufacturing to power its growth. In this paper, Park and Shin empirically analyze the prospects for the services sector in Asia. Their analysis of 12 Asian countries indicates that the services sector has already contributed substantially to the region's growth in the past. Somewhat surprisingly, in light of the difficulty of achieving productivity gains in services, they also find that services labor productivity grew at a healthy pace in much of the region. Overall their analysis provides substantial cause for optimism about the role of the services sector as an engine of growth in Asia. However, they caution that some Asian countries where the services sector is currently struggling, such as Korea and Thailand, will find it more challenging to develop the sector.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
170. Performance of the Services Sector in Korea: An Empirical Investigation
- Author:
- Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- There is a widespread perception that Korea's services sector lags behind its dynamic world-class manufacturing sector. This paper empirically analyzes the past performance of Korea's services sector in order to assess its prospects as an engine of growth. The analysis resoundingly confirms the conventional wisdom of an underperforming service sector. In light of Korea's high income and development level, the poor performance of modern services is of particular concern. The authors identify a number of factors underlying the poor performance and set forth policy recommendations for addressing them. Overall, Korea faces a challenging but navigable road ahead in developing a high value-added services sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Korea
171. The Renminbi Bloc Is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A country's rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging market economies, we show that in the last two years, the renminbi has increasingly become a reference currency which we define as one which exhibits a high degree of co-movement (CMC) with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a renminbi bloc, because the renminbi has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the renminbi than with the dollar, with the average value of the CMC relative to the renminbi being 40 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the renminbi, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the renminbi bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the renminbi's situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global renminbi bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s but complementary reforms of the financial and external sector could considerably expedite the process.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
172. Prospects for Services Trade Negotiations
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott, Julia Muir, and Minsoo Lee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Trade and investment in services are difficult to measure, and the regulatory barriers that inhibit the free flow of services are hard to quantify. As a result, very little attention has been paid to dismantling barriers to services trade and investment. Rather, free trade negotiations tend to focus on liberalizing merchandise trade. This paper examines what has been achieved in both regional and multilateral compacts by surveying international precedents involving Asian countries in which services reforms have been included in bilateral and regional trade pacts. The authors then assess the prospects for services trade negotiations and explore how services trade negotiations could be pursued over the next decade through two distinct channels: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a plurilateral approach among groups of WTO countries. The authors find that in the case of developing Asia, free trade agreements have largely excluded services or have only committed to "lock in" current practices in a narrow subset of service sectors. This is also the case in agreements negotiated between developing countries, which have produced less substantial commitments to liberalize services than those negotiated between developing and developed countries. Multilateral negotiations on services have also underperformed, as substantive negotiations on services in the Doha Round never really got underway. To that end, the authors advocate a stronger effort by developing Asian countries to prioritize services negotiations in their regional arrangements and to expand coverage of services in those pacts to a broad range of infrastructure services that are included in other FTAs in force or under construction in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- Asia
173. Transactions: A New Look at Services Sector Foreign Direct Investment in Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and Asia
174. Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate
- Author:
- Olivier Jeanne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a simple model of how a small open economy can undervalue its real exchange rate using its capital account policies. The paper presents several properties of such policies, and proposes a rule of thumb to assess their welfare cost. The model is applied to an analysis of Chinese capital account policies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
175. John Williamson and the Evolution of the International Monetary System
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Throughout his brilliant career, John Williamson has frequently focused his considerable analytical skills and powers of persuasion on reform of the international monetary system. This paper examines two principal areas of his concern: (1) exchange rates and the adjustment process, and (2) international liquidity, seigniorage, and the stability of the system. With respect to exchange rates, I find that there has been a moderate reduction in variability, but over the past 40 years external imbalances have, if anything, worsened. The adjustment process has malfunctioned. With respect to international liquidity, reserves have expanded rapidly, but their expansion has been demand-determined, has not involved a remonetization of gold or an increase in inflation. I find that concerns about the size and maldistribution of seigniorage are misplaced. Moreover, we are seeing a steady evolution toward a multicurrency international monetary and financial system. However, reserve diversification does not appear to have adversely affected exchange rate volatility to date. I conclude that the principal benefits of the Bretton Woods international monetary system remain and the principal weaknesses remain. But the system is evolving. It could be improved with respect to the adjustment process and the role of the International Monetary Fund as the international lender of last resort.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
176. Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Italy and Spain: A Probabilistic Approach
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key variables (growth, interest rate, primary surplus, bank recapitalization, and privatization). The 25th and 75th percentile scenarios are reported, as are the baseline and probability-weighted outcomes. The results suggest sovereign debt is sustainable in both Italy (where debt ratios are likely to decline because of a high primary surplus) and Spain (where the ratios rise but at a decelerating pace and from relatively low levels).
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Spain and Italy
177. Gender in Transition: The Case of North Korea
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a survey of 300 North Korean refugees to examine the experience of women in North Korea's fitful economic transition. Like other socialist states, North Korea has maintained a de jure commitment to women's rights. However, the authors find that women have been disproportionately shed from state-affiliated employment and thrust into a market environment characterized by weak institutions and corruption. As a result, the state and its affiliated institutions are increasingly populated by males, and the market, particularly in its retail aspects, is dominated by women. Among the most recent cohort of refugees to leave North Korea, more than one-third of male respondents indicate that criminality and corruption is the best way to make money, and 95 percent of female traders report paying bribes to avoid the penal system. In short, the increasingly male-dominated state preys on the increasingly female-dominated market. These results paint a picture of a vulnerable group that has been disadvantaged in North Korea's transition. Energies are directed toward survival, mass civil disobedience is reactive, and as a group, this population appears to lack the tools or social capital to act collectively to improve their status.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- Israel and North Korea
178. The Dollar and Its Discontents
- Author:
- Olivier Jeanne
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Has the US dollar delivered the benefit that the rest of the world is expecting from its holdings of international liquidity? US government debt has been liquid and safe, and it is supplied in sufficient quantity. But it has given a low return to the countries that accumulated the most reserves, especially when those returns are measured in terms of the countries' own consumption. Jeanne argues that countries that accumulate the most reserves should expect a low return in terms of their own consumption and that international monetary reform can do little to change that fact.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
179. The Microeconomics of North–South Korean Cross-Border Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Economic integration between North and South Korea occurs through three modalities: traditional arm's-length trade and investment, processing on commission (POC) trade, and operations within the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In order, these three modalities are characterized by decreasing exposure of South Korean firms to North Korean policy and infrastructure. Through a survey of 200 South Korean firms operating in North Korea, the authors find that these modalities of exchange matter greatly in terms of implied risk. For example, firms operating in the KIC are able to transact on significantly looser financial terms than those outside it. The authors find that direct and indirect South Korean public policy interventions influence these different modalities of exchange and thus impact entry, profitability, and sustainability of South Korean business activities in the North. In effect, the South Korean government has substituted relatively strong South Korean institutions for the relatively weak Northern ones in the KIC, thus socializing risk. As a result, the level and type of cross-border integration observed in the survey is very much a product of South Korean public policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
180. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
181. Lessons from Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The response of the ten new eastern members of the European Union to the global financial crisis has valuable lessons of crisis resolution for the euro area. These countries were severely hit by the crisis in the fall of 2008 and responded with extensive reforms. Crisis made the unthinkable possible. This paper outlines the main reform measures that the ten Central and East European (CEE) countries carried out. It then quantifies to what extent the CEE countries resolved the macroeconomic crisis and explores the effects of the reforms on future growth prospects. The fourth and major section discusses how the political economy of the crisis resolution actually worked. Finally, the author examines what lessons euro area countries can learn from the crisis resolution of the newest members of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
182. Financial Reform after the Crisis: An Early Assessment
- Author:
- Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to take stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007–08, and to provide a synthetic (if simplified) picture of their status as of January 2012. Underlying dynamics are described and analyzed both at the global level (particularly G-20, IMF, and FSB) and in individual jurisdictions, as well as the impact the crisis has had on these regions. The possible next steps of financial reform are then reviewed, including: the ongoing crisis management in Europe, the new emphasis on macroprudential approaches, the challenges posed by globally integrated financial firms, the implementation of harmonized global standards, and the links between financial systems and growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
183. Another Shot at Protection by Stealth: Using the Tax Law to Penalize Foreign Insurance Companies
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States suffers from a severe self-inflicted wound. Together, federal and state governments impose almost the highest corporate tax rate found among advanced countries, 39 percent. Only Japan is fractionally higher. The high US rate has adverse consequences—lost investment, lost jobs, and less innovation—and goes a long way to explain slipping US competitiveness in the world economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and Japan
184. Japan Post: Retreat or Advance?
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Legislation to reform Japan Post is again gathering steam in Tokyo. The real question is whether the latest act in this long- running drama will represent true reform or in fact will camouflage an entrenchment of Japan Post's formidable monopoly powers. Antireform proposals being lined up for consideration in the Diet would indefinitely extend effective government control of Japan Post's financial arms (thereby reversing the Koizumi era reforms). On the other hand, reform forces in the Japanese government want new legislation to guarantee a level playing field in banking and insurance between Japan Post and private firms, whether domestic or foreign.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Disasters
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Israel
185. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
186. Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy's Sovereign Debt
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Contagion from Greece, together with domestic political uncertainty in Italy, caused interest rates on Italian sovereign debt to spike in the second half of 2011. As shown in figure 1, the risk spread above German bunds for 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 200 basis points in early July 2011, to a range of 300 to 400 basis points after the July 21 Greek package with its new emphasis on private sector involvement. There was a second surge to the 400 to 500 basis point range in November through January, following the October 27 Greek package that insisted on a 50 percent reduction in private sector claims.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Italy
187. Transportation and Communication Infrastructure in Latin America: Lessons from Asia
- Author:
- Barbara Kotschwar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In Latin America, inadequate transportation infrastructure has been identified as an increasingly important impediment to the region's further integration in global trade and a significant factor preventing countries from properly taking advantage of the multitude of regional, plurilateral, and bilateral trade agreements signed in the past decade and a half. This paper examines transport and communications infrastructure initiatives in Latin American and Asian regional trade arrangements and finds several lessons Asia can teach Latin America.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Latin America
188. Global Imbalances and Foreign Asset Expansion by Developing Economy Central Banks
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the past 10 years, central banks and governments throughout the developing world have accumulated foreign exchange reserves and other official assets at an unprecedented rate. This paper shows that this official asset accumulation has driven a substantial portion of the recent large global current account imbalances. These net official capital flows have become large relative to the size of the industrial economies, and they are a significant factor contributing to the weakness of the economic recovery in the major industrial economies.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
189. Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Prachi Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the "spillover effect." Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
190. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia
191. Integration in the Absence of Institutions: China-North Korea Cross-Border Exchange
- Author:
- Jennifer Lee, Stephan Haggard, and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Theory tells us that weak rule of law and institutions deter cross-border integration, deter investment relative to trade, and inhibit trade finance. Drawing on a survey of more than 300 Chinese enterprises that are doing or have done business in North Korea, the authors consider how informal institutions have addressed these problems in a setting in which rule of law and institutions are particularly weak. Given the apparent reliance on hedging strategies, the rapid growth in exchange witnessed in recent years may prove self-limiting, as the effectiveness of informal institutions erodes and the risk premium rises. Institutional improvement could have significant welfare implications, affecting the volume, composition, and financial terms of cross-border exchange.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Israel
192. Sovereign Wealth Funds: Is Asia Different?
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have become a prominent feature of the international financial landscape. They are sufficiently diverse in their origins, structures, and objectives that generalizations are perilous. However, legitimate concerns have been raised in home and host countries about the management, behavior, and interactions of these funds. Many of those concerns can be addressed via increased accountability and transparency. The Santiago Principles are a good start in doing so, but Edwin M. Truman's SWF scoreboard points to areas where these principles can be improved. Meanwhile, SWF compliance must be further increased. At the same time, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) effort to address concerns from the host-country side has not resulted in the erection of new barriers to that form of cross-border investment, but the OECD failed to reverse the creeping financial protectionism of the past decade. Because of their size and the source of their funding, some Asian funds are different. As a result, they will be held to a higher standard of accountability and transparency even as their government owners press for more openness to cross-border investment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
193. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
194. The Liquidation of Government Debt
- Author:
- Carmen M. Reinhart
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of "financial repression." Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In this paper, the authors describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historical standards). For the advanced economies in Reinhart and Sbrancia's sample, real interest rates were negative roughly half of the time during 1945–80. For the United States and the United Kingdom, their estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average to 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum).
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
195. Coordinating Regional and Multilateral Financial Institutions
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent crises and the expansion of international financial arrangements have dramatically elevated the importance of cooperation between regional institutions and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the case for coordination between regional and multilateral institutions is generally accepted, however, the need to organize it on an ex ante basis is not fully appreciated. The relatively successful cooperation among the European Commission, European Central Bank, and IMF on the European debt crisis is not likely to be easily replicated in joint programs for countries in other regions, moreover, and the costs of coordination failure could be very large. Recent innovations at the IMF, on the other hand, present opportunities for cooperation with regional facilities. Henning reviews (1) the case for organizing cooperation on an ex ante basis, (2) the policy and institutional matters that should be coordinated, (3) how East Asian arrangements in particular and the IMF might cooperate, and (4) an Interinstitutional Agenda of general principles, modalities, and institutional recommendations. The G-20, member states, and institutions themselves should address this agenda proactively.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and East Asia
196. Resource Management and Transition in Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia
- Author:
- Richard Pomfret
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The paper presents a comparative analysis of the resource-rich transition economies of Mongolia and the southern republics of the former Soviet Union. For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the ability to earn revenue from cotton exports allowed them to avoid reform. Oil in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan was associated with large-scale corruption, but with soaring revenues in the 2000s their institutions evolved and to some extent improved. Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia illustrate the challenges facing small economies with large potential mineral resources, with the former suffering from competition for rents among the elite and the latter from lost opportunities. Overall the countries illustrate that a resource curse is not inevitable among transition economies, but a series of hurdles need to be surmounted to benefit from resource abundance. Neither the similar initial institutions nor those created in the 1990s are immutable.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan
197. IFSWF Report on Compliance with the Santiago Principles: Admirable but Flawed Transparency
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman and Sarah Bagnall
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On July 7, 2011 the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF) released a report on IFSWF Members' Experience in the Application of the Santiago Principles. The report is a self-assessment of the voluntary compliance of 21 member sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) with the Generally Accepted Principles and Practices of SWFs, issued in October 2008. We commend the IFSWF for undertaking the surveys on which the report is based, for the later decision to publish the results, and for the detail included in the report. However, as with many self-assessments, the report has some flaws. The principal flaw is that the characterization of the extent of compliance with the Santiago Principles is exaggerated.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
- Political Geography:
- Santiago
198. Europe on the Brink
- Author:
- Simon Johnson and Peter Boone
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Attempts to resolve the problems in Europe are failing, and the crisis is spreading from Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to larger nations. Europe's financial system relies on moral hazard, i.e., a “no defaults” policy, to attract the funding needed to roll over large amounts of short–term bank and sovereign debt. Now that politicians in creditor nations are calling for private sector burden sharing, investors are demanding higher interest rates to hold these debts. But higher rates may tip banks and nations toward bankruptcy. Europe's banks and financial system are highly integrated across countries. Rising expectations of default in some countries could lead to large-scale capital flight into “safe” countries. This shift will raise concerns regarding solvency and liquidity of many financial institutions. The payments system of the euro area is serving as an opaque bailout mechanism that is currently preventing the euro area from falling apart at this time. If the number of nations in trouble spreads beyond Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, this bailout system will be stressed because of the potential size of accumulated funding. The European Central Bank (ECB) could soon see a vocal debate between inflationist and hawkish (anti–inflation) members. Inflationists will call for large–scale interventions, including bond buybacks and emergency loans, while the hawks will attempt to close loopholes in the payments system that effectively permit each troubled nation to create money needed to finance capital flight and budget deficits. At this stage in the debate, we see little chance that Europe can avoid ending the “moral hazard” regime, in which case it needs to plan for widespread sovereign and bank debt restructurings.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, and Ireland
199. Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and the Global Economy
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In the past four years, rising world food prices and the global economic downturn increased the ranks of the world's food insecure1 from 848 million to 925 million by September 2010, reversing decades of slow yet steady progress in reducing hunger (WFP and FAO 2010). While the human costs have been considerable, the political consequences have been significant as well. Food prices sparked demonstrations and riots in 48 countries 2007–08. While prices receded in 2009, they reached historic highs in February 2011—and were once again implicated in political turmoil. High food and fuel prices were among the grievances motivating the demonstrations that led to the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Ethiopia and Egypt
200. What Should the United States Do about Doha?
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) remains stalled despite the political impetus provided by the Seoul G-20 Summit in November 2010. The major trading nations have not revised their positions enough to propel new negotiations on agriculture, manufactures, and services. There is now little chance to complete an agreement this year and little indication that current efforts could succeed next year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States