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41. Northern Ireland: Impasse

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe and Ireland

42. United States - Election Politics

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

43. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

44. Russia—Duma Dust-up

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

45. United Kingdom—Euro Issues

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

46. United States—Primary Politics

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

47. Croatia—Post-Tudjman Politics

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Croatia is preparing for two elections—parliamentary polls on January 3 and, following the recent death of President Franjo Tudjman, a presidential contest on January 24. Thus, the population has an opportunity to choose real change, and to set Croatia firmly on the path of economic transformation and European integration, after a period of stilted political and economic development, marked by cronyism, under Tudjman. However, this scenario is by no means certain.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

48. Vietnam—Reform Outlook

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Despite Hanoi's repeated assertions of its commitment to reform, the gap between the government's stated policies and what happens on the ground remains as wide as ever. The root of this problem is the diffusion of power throughout the multiple layers of government and bureaucracy. There are no quick-fix solutions which will centralise political power. A combination of continued global economic integration and exposure to outside ideas, allied with the government's own initiatives in areas such as administrative reform, provide the most likely route to strengthening the central administration's power.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Southeast Asia

49. Indonesia—New Government

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Compromise and accommodation are the watchwords of the new Indonesian government. During the past two weeks, the top legislative and executive positions have been distributed to the leaders of four of the country's five major political parties. The new cabinet, announced on October 26, continues this trend. Active and retired members of the military hold six seats, giving them a larger representation than any single political party. Not only President Abdurrahman Wahid, but all of Indonesia's political leaders, are hoping that by sharing power, rather than struggling for supremacy, conflict can be minimised and some measure of reform achieved. However, it is likely that governmental splits will emerge in the medium term.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

50. Argentina—Opposition

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outright victory of the Alliance candidate, Fernando de la Rua, on the first round of voting in the presidential elections on October 24, reflects the desire for a change of political style. De la Rua's approach to government will be less personalist and more consensual than that of the outgoing president, Carlos Menem. While economic policy is unlikely to change in any fundamental way, the new government will be under pressure to root out corruption. It will be the first time since the return to civilian rule in 1983 that a government lacks a majority in either chamber of Congress, which may strengthen democratic institutions.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Argentina