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2. US/China— Spyplane Accord
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- China said yesterday it would release the crew of the US EP-3 surveillance aircraft that was forced to land in Hainan Island on April 8, following a mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter. The Bush administration will welcome resolution of the dispute, especially as opinion polls released yesterday showed that a majority of US citizens regarded the crew as 'hostages'. Had the 24 crew members not been released before the Easter holiday, the crisis would have become far more significant for the White House, and inflamed anti-China sentiment in Congress. In the short term, resolution of the crisis will result in a scaling down of the criticism of some conservatives that the White House has been unduly accommodating towards China. However, in the longer-term, the episode will strengthen the conservative 'anti-China' lobby in Washington, which could hamper Bush's future attempts to improve relations with Beijing.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, and Beijing
3. United States — Bush Administration
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- A combination of good fortune and some skilful planning have allowed the Bush administration to make a successful start in office. These factors will probably allow the president to pursue much of his agenda effectively this year. However, difficulties will be encountered once Washington politics becomes preoccupied by the 2002 congressional elections.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
4. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
5. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia
6. Russia — Gore Strategy
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore officially accepted the Democratic presidential nomination at the party's National Convention in Los Angeles on August 17. A continued deficit in the polls forced Gore to use the convention as a platform to consolidate his base vote. He also sought to differentiate himself from the Clinton presidency, despite the fact that he has adopted similar positions to the outgoing administration on many key issues. If Gore is to win in November, he must convince voters that the current expansion, and the benign political climate that it has fostered, would be imperilled by a Bush presidency.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
7. United States — Bush Presidency
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- An analysis of Texas Governor George Bush's record as a modest tax cutter and education policy activist suggests that these issues would probably shape his policy preferences if he were elected president. A Bush White House would probably settle for smaller tax cuts than those the governor is currently proposing. It would also be likely to focus on achieving a series of moderately conservative education and crime reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
8. United States - Senate Prospects
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This year's Senate elections will be only modestly affected by the outcome of the presidential election. The Republicans currently hold a 55-45 seat advantage in the chamber, a margin that will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to overturn this November. The Democrats will therefore hope to gain three or four seats; a surge which would enable the party to launch a strong challenge to the Senate Republicans in 2002. Although more Republicans are seeking re-election this year, the Democrats are defending four of the five seats in which the incumbent senator is retiring (so-called 'open seats').
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and New York
9. United States — Presidential Race
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- With the presidential primary season having ended this week, the race for the White House now heads for the party conventions. Since effectively securing the Republican nomination, Texas Governor George Bush has regained his poll lead over the de facto Democratic nominee, Vice-President Al Gore. If Bush retains a clear poll lead by the convention season, the current signs of apprehension amongst Democratic leaders will become more apparent. If Gore can more closely identify himself with the economy's exceptionally strong performance, he is perfectly capable of staging a full recovery and securing victory in November.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
10. Peru -- Flawed democracy
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Immediately following the first round, US pressure was influential in eliciting the delayed official announcement that Fujimori had failed to secure outright victory, and that he would have to contest a run-off against leading opposition contender Alejandro Toledo. However, from Toledo's point of view, the US pressure is likely to yield only limited benefits. While it may persuade Fujimori to ensure that the organisation of the second round is unimpeachable, or at least not too openly corrupt, it will not of itself end Fujimori's regime. On the contrary, it is likely to boost the Fujimori campaign by allowing the incumbent to appeal to strong nationalist sentiments in the Peruvian electorate.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and South America
11. United States -- Elian Endgame?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Cuba
12. United States - Election Politics
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
13. United States—Primary Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
14. Croatia—Post-Tudjman Politics
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Croatia is preparing for two elections—parliamentary polls on January 3 and, following the recent death of President Franjo Tudjman, a presidential contest on January 24. Thus, the population has an opportunity to choose real change, and to set Croatia firmly on the path of economic transformation and European integration, after a period of stilted political and economic development, marked by cronyism, under Tudjman. However, this scenario is by no means certain.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
15. United States—Senatorial Stability?
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States