Publishing Institution: Oxford Analytica / Political Geography: Asia

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Former IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer expressed support for regional currency arrangements in a speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on May 21. East Asian nations continue to discuss swap arrangements and other forms of cooperation in the hope of defending local currencies. Fischer endorsed the swap plans while throwing critical light on currency 'management' schemes. Such schemes could result in perverse consequences for regional economies.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Hong Kong

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week's piece focuses on mixed successes of intra-regional mergers and acquisitions in South-east Asia. Large South-east Asian firms have been enthusiastic investors within the region, with mixed results. Successful intra-regional investment is important for developing a greater domestic demand structure in the region and reducing reliance on external demand.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Shanghai and Asia

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: UN High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers yesterday began a visit to western Afghanistan to assess the country's deepening humanitarian crisis. Extreme drought and an intensification of the country's chronic war following a winter lull in fighting are likely to exacerbate famine and displacement of population. However, despite the emergence of a disaster which the international community will find difficult to ignore, UN sanctions against the Taliban, which controls 90% of the country, have done nothing either to curtail the movement's depredations against the population under its control or dampen its enthusiasm for a spring offensive. Peace for Afghanistan remains unrealistic as it enters its ninth year of civil war. Indeed, in the short term the total collapse of the country's agricultural system is likely to produce an influx of new recruits for this cycle of violence. However, evidence of a growing fractiousness within the Taliban could result in an emergence of a more moderate faction amenable both to dialogue with the international community and an accommodation with opposition forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
Topic:: Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Asia

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