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1. The Ukraine effect: demise or rebirth of the global order?

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sharpened the commitment of Western governments to a liberal vision of international order. But it is a different story elsewhere. Many countries, particularly in the Global South, regard the rules-based order as an artificial Western construct, and the Ukraine war as a matter of geopolitics rather than norms and principles. Events in Ukraine have reinforced Washington’s views about two competing visions of global order — one democratic, the other autocratic. However, such binarism has little resonance beyond the West. For the Global South, the divide that matters is with the Global North. This is not only about relative influence and status in the international system, but also diverging priorities. A rules-based international order is achievable, but not as commonly imagined in the West. The post-Cold War template of unalloyed US global leadership and Western-dominated institutions is no longer tenable. The only viable order is one that is more inclusive and representative, reflecting a world where power is increasingly diffuse, and global cooperation is critical in meeting threats such as climate change and human insecurity.
Topic:
Multilateralism, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

2. Chips, subsidies, security, and great power competition

Author:
John Edwards
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Government subsidies to industry in leading economies are large and growing, with potentially deep, wide-ranging, and unpredictable consequences for the world. It is not clear what rules, if any, will apply in this new era of industry competition, nor whether the measures will be effective in denying frontier technology to rival economies. The impacts of industry subsidies and export controls, including for countries such as Australia, hang on their implementation — beneficial in so far as they speed tech innovation, but detrimental if they split the global economy into competing blocs.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Subsidies, Competition, and Microchips
Political Geography:
Australia and Global Focus

3. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report

Author:
Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

4. Crumbling cornerstone? Australia’s education ties with Southeast Asia

Author:
Susannah Patton
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? Successive Australian governments have billed education as the cornerstone of its people-to-people connections and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet the era of the Colombo Plan, in which Australia educated the region’s top leaders, is over. Changing economic relativities, and the success of both established and new competitors such as China and Japan, mean Australia’s access and influence through education to the region’s future leaders will decline. Moreover, a narrow focus on Southeast Asia as a market for generating international student revenue may lead to Australia missing opportunities to help build regional human capacity and advance its bilateral relationships. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? The Australian government needs to increase and diversify scholarship offerings to students from Southeast Asia. This includes refocusing on the Australia Awards and reintroducing a merit-based scholarship targeted at the regional countries that do not receive bilateral development assistance from Australia (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei). A new international education strategy should develop a focus on building regional human capacity, rather than viewing international students solely in terms of a market opportunity. The government should also reshape the New Colombo Plan to focus more on long-term study opportunities to ensure it is meeting its original goal of strengthening Australia’s relationships with countries in the broader Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Australia and Southeast Asia

5. WeChat’s role in Australian democracy: A grassroots view

Author:
Xueyin Zha
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The social media messaging app WeChat is often portrayed in expert and media commentary as being inherently incompatible with democracy in Australia because the platform is subject to the scrutiny and censure of China, an authoritarian one-party state. This study provides the first in-depth snapshot of how politicians and everyday Chinese-Australians use WeChat at the grassroots level during council elections. It finds that WeChat, in these circumstances, can be broadly compatible with liberal democracy and significantly enhances democratic participation in a multicultural society. Using the December 2021 New South Wales (NSW) local elections as a case study, this paper analyses qualitative data collected from private group chats, interviews with Chinese-Australian politicians, and editors from media outlets on WeChat. The study finds that, overall, the app expanded, rather than restricted, Chinese-Australian voters’ access to quality news content to better inform their choices at the ballot box. The platform was used to bridge gaps in the provision of public services and information to Chinese-Australian communities and facilitated their civic engagement. Despite its benefits, WeChat is afflicted by issues relating to censorship, transparency, online polarisation, and mis- and disinformation. Australia’s stark political differences and fraught bilateral relations with China add additional layers of complexity to managing these challenges. However, improved oversight and governance arrangements, alongside enhanced funding for reliable Chinese-language online media, would help offset the risk of foreign influence and better harness the platform’s utility for bolstering the participation of Chinese-Australian communities in Australia’s democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Social Media, Political Participation, and WeChat
Political Geography:
China and Australia

6. Australia in the Middle East: Enduring risks, interests, and opportunities

Author:
Rodger Shanahan
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As Australia refocuses its foreign and defence policies on its near abroad, it must be careful not to allow ties with the Middle East to fall into neglect. This analysis examines the impact that two decades of security engagement in the Middle East have had on Australia’s relations with the region and argues that while Canberra may have largely ended the country’s military commitments in the Middle East, the region is more important in more ways to Australia than it was before that commitment got underway. An expanded Australian diplomatic footprint, growing economic ties, and more extensive people-to-people links with the Middle East means that the region and its security risks have greater domestic relevance for Australia than they did two decades ago.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East and Australia

7. Chinese coercion, Australian resilience

Author:
Richard McGregor
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australians have grown in confidence about the country’s ability to withstand economic coercion from China since the imposition of punitive trade measures in 2020. Beijing suspended high-level political exchanges and imposed a range of informal sanctions and trade blockages against Australia in the wake of a series of escalating disputes, culminating in Canberra’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 in April that year. Two years on, it is prudent to plan on the basis that it is still early days in China’s use of trade measure against Australia. Canberra and Beijing resumed ministerial-level dialogue after the election of the Albanese Labor government in May 2022. But given the long-term structural divide between the United States and China, and Australia’s position as a strong US ally, Australian governments of all persuasions should assume that China’s trade policies against Australia will remain largely in place. Beijing may tactically retreat now and again to fill shortfalls or if it wants for political reasons to present itself as a conciliatory partner. But a solution to the fundamental bilateral political tensions driving trade disruptions is not on the horizon. The sectors in which bilateral trade with China have continued to prosper are not those in which Australian producers are dependent on China but rather where the two countries are interdependent. Australia cannot find alternative markets to match China for commodities such as iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and wool. Nor can China wean itself off a substantial reliance on Australia as a supplier. For this reason, the core elements of bilateral trade will remain reasonably resilient for some years. However, absent a huge change in the structure of the Australian economy and its export profile, the longer-term picture for exports to China looks worse. As China’s economy grows and its structure changes and becomes less resource intensive, Australia will likely get a decreasing share of a growing pie. Over time, the cost of trade bans and other punitive measures will likely mount as Chinese investment in Australia diminishes and the cost of diversifying from the region’s largest economy grows. Australia has maintained its reputation as a reliable supplier of commodities throughout the downturn in bilateral relations with China. It is imperative that it continue to do so — both to benefit the Australian economy and to maintain leverage of its own. Control over critical commodities carries considerable strategic value, as the role of gas and oil in the Ukraine war has shown.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Commodities, Trade, Resilience, and Coercion
Political Geography:
China and Australia

8. Sharper choices: How Australia can make better national security decisions

Author:
Ben Scott
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As Australia’s national security environment has grown more complex and competitive, the country’s governments have gradually articulated their strategic response, primarily in the 2016 Defence White Paper, the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, and the 2020 Defence Strategic Update. In these documents, and in major speeches, Australian governments have adopted four broad strategic concepts: the embattled rules-based order, the return of great power competition, the expansion of grey zone competition, and the increased likelihood of major power war. There is no master theory that can entirely explain Australia’s situation and guide its decision-makers. A national security strategy is necessary, but its utility will be limited by the increasingly unpredictable course of geopolitics. The strategic concepts Australia has adopted illuminate its interests, objectives, and the types of issues Canberra must grapple with. But these concepts also mask many of the difficult choices Australia will face. Focusing on the paradox of “competitive independence” brings additional clarity to the country’s policy dilemmas but does not resolve them. Responding to greater uncertainty will require greater case-by-case decision-making. But this does not mean the government should simply muddle through. Rather, it should seek to improve the quality of its decision-making by following through on Australia’s history of imposing more structure on national security decision-making. Acknowledging the complexity of the challenges it faces, the government should more often seek discrete assessments of national security problems to ensure that all relevant dimensions are considered. This would help ensure that Australia’s long-term strategic goals are considered when critical decisions are made.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
China and Australia

9. Mixed report card: China’s influence at the United Nations

Author:
Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China is of growing importance to the United Nations. Beijing aims to exert influence at the world body to legitimise and disseminate its foreign policy values and interests. This report contextualises China’s growing presence at the United Nations by examining publicly available data on four metrics that gauge Beijing’s success in steering the global governance agenda. Those metrics are: funding for UN departments, programs, and initiatives; staffing of executive-level personnel positions; voting in the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council; and the use of PRC-specific discourse and language in UN-generated documentation. The United Nations has become progressively more reliant on China’s general contributions, and in turn China has used a combination of levers to elevate its position within the UN system. However, this report finds that China is still selective in its overall approach to UN participation and that efforts by the PRC do not necessarily translate into successful influence at the body. The report makes three recommendations for UN stakeholders. First, a deeper understanding must be gained of what China contributes across different UN agencies and functional areas to establish a more complete picture of its multilateral input. Second, efforts should be made to shape China’s engagement in multilateral issues, in particular those that the PRC is yet to prioritise, such as refugee management. Third, it is vital to articulate an inclusive multilateral vision for a rules-based international order that specifies under which conditions China’s contributions are embraced, rather than framing PRC input solely as a source of concern.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
China and Asia

10. How to make Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund work

Author:
Kyunghun Kim
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indonesian government has established a sovereign wealth fund: the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA). Unlike many other sovereign wealth funds that manage large national savings, INA seeks to attract foreign co-investors to help fund economic development. INA’s near-term role is to purchase assets from heavily-indebted infrastructure-related state enterprises to improve their financial health and allow them to carry out further development projects. INA’s corporate governance arrangements are reasonable on paper. Much will depend on implementation. INA has attracted interest from a variety of international financiers, including state-backed investors from the United States, Japan, United Arab Emirates, and China. Clarifying INA’s investment goals and strengthening external monitoring mechanisms could help attract greater interest.
Topic:
Sovereign Wealth Funds, Economy, Investment, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

11. Turning point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Putin’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the resilience but also the limitations of Sino–Russian partnership. Far from being an “arc of autocracy”, this is an interests-based relationship between strategically autonomous powers. Foreign policy coordination between China and Russia is limited by their different views of global order. Beijing is invested in a stable international system, albeit one skewed in its favour, whereas Moscow thrives on disorder and uncertainty. Xi Jinping aims to preserve the Sino–Russian partnership while maintaining ties with the West. But Beijing’s balancing act will become harder to sustain as the war continues. The balance of power within the bilateral relationship has tilted sharply towards Beijing. Russia is more reliant on China than ever. The long-term outlook for the relationship is unpromising.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Conflict, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Ukraine

12. Revising down the rise of China

Author:
Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

13. Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime

Author:
Jose Sousa-Santos
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Pacific “drug highway” has spilled over into domestic markets for illicit drug consumption and production in the Pacific Islands region. Drug trafficking has evolved significantly with the rise of local actors in transnational criminal networks. Capacity shortfalls and a disconnect between regional law enforcement infrastructure and national law enforcement agencies undermine trust and are detrimental to intelligence sharing and interoperability in cross-border policing efforts. The deportation policies of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States are exacerbating crime and addiction within Pacific nations. They undermine the policy objectives of development partners in the region and will need urgent review.
Topic:
Crime, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

14. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers

Author:
Miah Hammond-Errey
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
Topic:
Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Australia's South China Sea Challenges

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China will not agree to a South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) that is consistent with the 2016 South China Sea arbitral tribunal ruling, and therefore any COC which China agrees with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will harm Australia’s interests. But a lack of Australian support for such a Code would aggravate relations with Southeast Asian states and ASEAN, and with China. Australia should use the time afforded by the drawn-out Code of Conduct negotiations to coordinate with the five littoral Southeast Asian states affected by China’s unlawful maritime claims. Australia should emphasise the need for consistency with international law, especially the 2016 arbitral ruling. The Biden administration is likely to increase pressure on Australia to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea. Such action may risk a significant Chinese response against Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Alliance, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:
China, Australia, Southeast Asia, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

16. Eyes on the Prize: Australia, China, and the Antarctic Treaty System

Author:
Claire Young
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s interests in Antarctica are better served by the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) than anything we could negotiate today. We should redouble our commitment to its ideals of science-driven, rules-based management — and counter the narrative of ATS ‘failure’. China is pushing the boundaries of ATS practice by exploiting fisheries and tourism, and probably seeking access to Western technologies in Antarctica. And in the future, Beijing could lead a coalition of states seeking mineral riches that only China is likely to be capable of retrieving. Australia should watch China’s activities closely, but react cautiously. We should be wary of false analogies with the Arctic and not overreact to marginal military developments. We should shield the ATS from Australia–China tension and US–China competition.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Natural Resources, Tourism, Geopolitics, Fishing, and Coalition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and Arctic

17. Chinese-Australians in the Australian Public Service

Author:
Yang Jiang
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Almost every governmental policy decision made today has a China angle, and building understanding of China has become more pressing for Australian policymaking than ever. Despite the urgent demand within the Australian public service for China expertise and language skills, the existing skills of many Chinese-Australians are being overlooked. Australia has a significant, diverse, and growing population of Chinese-Australians, but they are underrepresented and underutilised in the public service. A better harnessing of the skills and knowledge of this community — including via improved recruitment processes, better use of data, skills-matching, and reviewing and clarifying security clearance processes and requirements — would have substantial benefits for Australian policymaking in one of its most important bilateral relationships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Public Service
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

18. After Xi: Future Scenarios for Leadership Succession in Post-Xi Jinping Era

Author:
Richard McGregor and Jude Blanchette
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
After more than eight years in office, Xi Jinping has made himself into China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, but in doing so, Xi has destabilised elite politics and demolished the power sharing norms that evolved since the 1980s. By removing de jure and de facto term limits on the most senior position of power, and thus far refusing to nominate his successor, Xi has solidified his own leadership position but potentially pushed the country towards a destabilising succession crisis. There are various scenarios for what happens after Xi, ranging from a peaceful transfer of power to a split at the top if he is forced out of office in a coup or by illness or death.
Topic:
Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:
China and Asia

19. The Crisis after the Crisis: How Ladakh will Shape India’s Competition with China

Author:
Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The still-unresolved Ladakh crisis has created a new strategic reality for India, marked by renewed political hostility with China, and an increased militarisation of the Line of Actual Control. This new strategic reality imposes unequal costs on India and China. India is likely to defer much-needed military modernisation and maritime expansion into the Indian Ocean — which would impair its ability to compete strategically with China. In contrast, China incurred only marginal material costs; it was probably more concerned with the prospect of continued deterioration in its relationship with India. Even that cost was more threatened rather than realised, and largely reduced when the disengagement plan was agreed.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Strategic Competition, Militarization, and Disengagement
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

20. Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way

Author:
Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There is a growing bipartisan consensus in Washington on a tighter embrace of Taiwan, which may soon become a stronger implied US commitment to go to war in the event of a Chinese invasion. Taiwan matters to US security and the regional order, and the United States should continue to make clear that aggression is unacceptable. But those advocating a stronger US security commitment exaggerate the strategic consequences of a successful Chinese invasion. The stakes are not so high as to warrant an unqualified US pledge to go to war. American decision-makers, like their forebears confronting the seeming threat of communism in Indochina, may be trapping themselves into an unnecessarily stark conception of the consequences of a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It would be irresponsible for the United States to leave itself no option in the event of Chinese aggression other than war. But nor should Washington abandon Taiwan. There is a prudent middle way: the United States should act as armourer, but not guarantor. It should help prepare Taiwan to defend itself, to raise costs against aggression, and develop means of punishing China with non-military tools.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America